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致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:
您或许还记得去年报告中那篇极度乐观的致辞:当时并没有什么重大进展,但我们的经验表明,偶尔总会有大事发生。这一精心制定的公司战略在1985年取得了成果。本报告后续部分将讨论:(a) 我们购入大都会/美国广播公司的重大股权;(b) 我们收购了斯科特·费泽公司;(c) 我们参与了一项关于消防员基金保险业务的大规模长期合同;以及(d) 我们出售了持有的通用食品公司股票。
原文
You may remember the wildly upbeat message of last year’s report: nothing much was in the works but our experience had been that something big popped up occasionally. This carefully-crafted corporate strategy paid off in 1985. Later sections of this report discuss (a) our purchase of a major position in Capital Cities/ABC, (b) our acquisition of Scott & Fetzer, (c) our entry into a large, extended term participation in the insurance business of Fireman’s Fund, and (d) our sale of our stock in General Foods.
我们今年的净资产增加了6.136亿美元,增幅为48.2%。哈雷彗星的造访恰逢这一百分比增幅,这很合适:两者在我的有生之年都将不会再看到。过去二十一年(即现任管理层接手以来),我们每股账面价值的增长幅度从19.46美元增至1643.71美元,年复合增长率为23.2%,这也是一个不会重现的百分比。
原文
Our gain in net worth during the year was $613.6 million, or 48.2%. It is fitting that the visit of Halley’s Comet coincided with this percentage gain: neither will be seen again in my lifetime. Our gain in per-share book value over the last twenty-one years (that is, since present management took over) has been from $19.46 to $1643.71, or 23.2% compounded annually, another percentage that will not be repeated.
有两个因素使得未来任何接近这一增长率的业绩都无法实现。其中一个因素可能是暂时性的——即股票市场所提供的机遇,远不及1964年至1984年大部分时间里普遍存在的市场。如今,我们无法为我们的保险投资组合找到显著低估的股票进行购买。当前的市场状况与大约十年前的情况截然相反,当时唯一的问题是要选择哪个便宜货。
原文
Two factors make anything approaching this rate of gain unachievable in the future. One factor probably transitory—is a stock market that offers very little opportunity compared to the markets that prevailed throughout much of the 1964-1984 period. Today we cannot find significantly-undervalued equities to purchase for our insurance company portfolios. The current situation is 180 degrees removed from that existing about a decade ago, when the only question was which bargain to choose.
市场的变化对我们现有的投资组合也产生了负面影响。在我们1974年的年度报告中,我可以说:“我们相信,我们的几个主要持股在未来几年内,其价值具有大幅增长的巨大潜力。”现在我不能这么说了。诚然,我们的保险公司目前持有一些具有卓越基础经济和杰出管理层的公司的重大股权,就像1974年那样。但当前的市场价格对这些特质给予了慷慨的评估,而在1974年,它们却被忽视了。今天的估值意味着,我们的保险公司未来不可能实现过去那样规模的投资组合收益。
原文
This change in the market also has negative implications for our present portfolio. In our 1974 annual report I could say: “We consider several of our major holdings to have great potential for significantly increased values in future years.” I can’t say that now. It’s true that our insurance companies currently hold major positions in companies with exceptional underlying economics and outstanding managements, just as they did in 1974. But current market prices generously appraise these attributes, whereas they were ignored in 1974. Today’s valuations mean that our insurance companies have no chance for future portfolio gains on the scale of those achieved in the past.
第二个负面因素,影响更为深远,是我们的规模。我们的股本资本是十年前二十多倍。商业的一条铁律是,增长最终会抑制卓越的经济效益。只需看看那些高回报公司的记录,一旦它们积累了哪怕10亿美元的股本资本,情况如何。据我所知,没有一家公司能够在随后的十年期间,在将全部或绝大部分收益进行再投资的同时,继续维持20%或以上的股本回报率。相反,为了维持其高回报,这些公司需要通过分红或股票回购的方式释放大量资本。如果所有收益都能以这些卓越企业所赚取的丰厚回报率进行再投资,它们的股东本会富裕得多。但公司就是找不到足够多的高回报机会来使之成为可能。
原文
The second negative factor, far more telling, is our size. Our equity capital is more than twenty times what it was only ten years ago. And an iron law of business is that growth eventually dampens exceptional economics. just look at the records of high-return companies once they have amassed even $1 billion of equity capital. None that I know of has managed subsequently, over a ten-year period, to keep on earning 20% or more on equity while reinvesting all or substantially all of its earnings. Instead, to sustain their high returns, such companies have needed to shed a lot of capital by way of either dividends or repurchases of stock. Their shareholders would have been far better off if all earnings could have been reinvested at the fat returns earned by these exceptional businesses. But the companies simply couldn’t turn up enough high-return opportunities to make that possible.
它们的问题就是我们的问题。去年我告诉过你们,在接下来的十年里,我们需要39亿美元的利润才能获得15%的年收益率。现在未来十年相应的数字是57亿美元,增长了48%,这与我们1985年资本基础的扩张在数学上必须保持一致。(这里提供一点视角:除去石油公司,过去十年中,美国只有大约15家企业成功赚取了超过57亿美元的利润。)
原文
Their problem is our problem. Last year I told you that we needed profits of $3.9 billion over the ten years then coming up to earn 15% annually. The comparable figure for the ten years now ahead is $5.7 billion, a 48% increase that corresponds—as it must mathematically—to the growth in our capital base during 1985. (Here’s a little perspective: leaving aside oil companies, only about 15 U.S. businesses have managed to earn over $5.7 billion during the past ten years.)
查理·芒格,我在管理伯克希尔时的合伙人,和我对伯克希尔获得超过美国企业平均水平的回报率的能力相当乐观,只要这些回报能够实现,您将从公司留存所有收益中受益。我们有几个有利条件:(1) 我们不必担心季度或年度数据,而是可以专注于任何能最大化长期价值的行动;(2) 我们可以在任何有意义的领域扩展业务——我们的范围不受历史、结构或概念的限制;(3) 我们热爱我们的工作。所有这些都有帮助。即便如此,我们仍然需要非常多的好运才能达到我们所期望的15%的平均回报率——远比我们过去实现23.2%所需要的运气要多得多。
原文
Charlie Munger, my partner in managing Berkshire, and I are reasonably optimistic about Berkshire’s ability to earn returns superior to those earned by corporate America generally, and you will benefit from the company’s retention of all earnings as long as those returns are forthcoming. We have several things going for us: (1) we don’t have to worry about quarterly or annual figures but, instead, can focus on whatever actions will maximize long-term value; (2) we can expand the business into any areas that make sense—our scope is not circumscribed by history, structure, or concept; and (3) we love our work. All of these help. Even so, we will also need a full measure of good fortune to average our hoped-for 15%—far more good fortune than was required for our past 23.2%.
我们需要提及投资等式中的另一个因素,它可能影响我们股票的近期购买者。历史上,伯克希尔的股票售价略低于内在商业价值。在那种价格下,购买者可以确定(只要他们没有经历这种折价的扩大),他们的个人投资经验至少会与企业的财务经验持平。但最近,这种折价消失了,偶尔还出现了适度的溢价。
原文
We need to mention one further item in the investment equation that could affect recent purchasers of our stock. Historically, Berkshire shares have sold modestly below intrinsic business value. With the price there, purchasers could be certain (as long as they did not experience a widening of this discount) that their personal investment experience would at least equal the financial experience of the business. But recently the discount has disappeared, and occasionally a modest premium has prevailed.
折价的消失意味着伯克希尔的市值增长甚至快于商业价值(商业价值本身也以令人欣喜的速度增长)。这对在此期间持有股票的股东来说是好消息,但对于新股东或潜在股东来说则是坏消息。如果伯克希尔新股东的个人财务经验仅仅是赶上公司未来的财务经验,那么他们支付的任何市场价值相对于内在商业价值的溢价都必须得以维持。
原文
The elimination of the discount means that Berkshire’s market value increased even faster than business value (which, itself, grew at a pleasing pace). That was good news for any owner holding while that move took place, but it is bad news for the new or prospective owner. If the financial experience of new owners of Berkshire is merely to match the future financial experience of the company, any premium of market value over intrinsic business value that they pay must be maintained.
管理层无法决定市场价格,尽管他们可以通过其披露和政策,鼓励市场参与者做出理性行为。我个人的偏好,或许正如您所猜测的,是市场价格能持续接近商业价值。在这种关系下,所有股东在其持股期间都能精确地随着企业的繁荣而繁荣。市场价格远远高于或低于商业价值的剧烈波动,并不会改变所有者的最终总收益;最终,投资者的收益必须等于企业的收益。但是,长期的大幅低估和/或高估,将导致企业收益在不同所有者之间分配不均,任何特定所有者的投资结果在很大程度上取决于他恰好是幸运、精明还是愚蠢。
原文
Management cannot determine market prices, although it can, by its disclosures and policies, encourage rational behavior by market participants. My own preference, as perhaps you’d guess, is for a market price that consistently approximates business value. Given that relationship, all owners prosper precisely as the business prospers during their period of ownership. Wild swings in market prices far above and below business value do not change the final gains for owners in aggregate; in the end, investor gains must equal business gains. But long periods of substantial undervaluation and/or overvaluation will cause the gains of the business to be inequitably distributed among various owners, with the investment result of any given owner largely depending upon how lucky, shrewd, or foolish he happens to be.
长期来看,伯克希尔的市场价值与商业价值之间的关系,比我熟悉的任何其他公开交易股票都更为一致。这是对你们的赞誉。因为你们理性、感兴趣并且以投资为导向,伯克希尔股票的市场价格几乎总是合理的。这一不寻常的结果是由一个具有不寻常人口特征的股东群体实现的:实际上我们所有的股东都是个人,而非机构。在我们这个规模的其他上市公司中,没有一家能声称同样的情况。
原文
Over the long term there has been a more consistent relationship between Berkshire’s market value and business value than has existed for any other publicly-traded equity with which I am familiar. This is a tribute to you. Because you have been rational, interested, and investment-oriented, the market price for Berkshire stock has almost always been sensible. This unusual result has been achieved by a shareholder group with unusual demographics: virtually all of our shareholders are individuals, not institutions. No other public company our size can claim the same.
你可能会认为,拥有大量高薪且经验丰富的投资专业人士的机构,会成为金融市场稳定和理性的力量。但它们不是:那些被机构大量持有并持续监控的股票,往往是最容易被错误定价的。
原文
You might think that institutions, with their large staffs of highly-paid and experienced investment professionals, would be a force for stability and reason in financial markets. They are not: stocks heavily owned and constantly monitored by institutions have often been among the most inappropriately valued.
40年前,本·格雷厄姆讲了一个故事,说明了投资专业人士为何会如此行事:一位石油勘探者,在前往天堂接受奖赏时,圣彼得告诉他一个坏消息。“你有资格居住,”圣彼得说,“但是,如你所见,专门为石油人预留的社区已经挤满了人。实在没法把你塞进去。”思考片刻后,勘探者问他是否可以对现任居民说四个字。圣彼得觉得这似乎无害,于是勘探者合拢双手喊道:“地狱发现石油了。”社区的大门立刻打开,所有的石油人都涌出来,奔向那个阴间之地。圣彼得印象深刻,邀请勘探者搬进去并且舒服地住下。勘探者停顿了一下。“不,”他说,“我想我还是跟其他伙伴一起去吧。那个谣言也许真有几分道理。”
原文
Ben Graham told a story 40 years ago that illustrates why investment professionals behave as they do: An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for oil men is packed. There’s no way to squeeze you in.” After thinking a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants. That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, “Oil discovered in hell.” Immediately the gate to the compound opened and all of the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions. Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable. The prospector paused. “No,” he said, “I think I’ll go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumor after all.”
报告收益来源
下一页的表格显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。这些数字,以及更为详细的子板块数字,是查理和我关注的焦点。我们发现合并数据对于管理或评估伯克希尔都没有帮助,实际上我们内部也从不准备这些数据。
原文
Sources of Reported Earnings
The table on the next page shows the major sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. These numbers, along with far more detailed sub-segment numbers, are the ones that Charlie and I focus upon. We do not find consolidated figures an aid in either managing or evaluating Berkshire and, in fact, never prepare them for internal use.
对于希望了解多业务公司经营状况的投资者来说,分部信息同样至关重要。公司管理层在做出收购决策时,始终坚持要求获得此类信息,但直到几年前,他们却很少向面临自身收购和处置决策的投资者提供这些信息。相反,当希望了解其业务经济现实的所有者要求提供数据时,经理们通常会给出一个“我们不能告诉你正在发生什么,因为这会损害公司”的答案。最终,美国证券交易委员会下令披露分部数据,管理层才开始提供真实的答案。他们行为的改变让人想起阿尔·卡彭的一句名言:“用一句好话和一把枪,比单用一句好话能走得更远。”
原文
Segment information is equally essential for investors wanting to know what is going on in a multi-line business. Corporate managers always have insisted upon such information before making acquisition decisions but, until a few years ago, seldom made it available to investors faced with acquisition and disposition decisions of their own. Instead, when owners wishing to understand the economic realities of their business asked for data, managers usually gave them a we-can’t-tell-you-what-is-going-on-because-it-would-hurt-the-company answer. Ultimately the SEC ordered disclosure of segment data and management began supplying real answers. The change in their behavior recalls an insight of Al Capone: “You can get much further with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone.”
在表格中,商誉摊销并未从特定业务中扣除,而是出于我在1983年年报致股东信附录中概述的原因,汇总为一个单独项目。(可应要求提供1977-1984年信函汇编。)在第39-41页和49-55页的“业务分部数据”和“管理层讨论”部分,提供了关于我们业务的更多信息,包括每个分部的商誉和商誉摊销数据。我强烈建议您阅读这些部分,以及从第56页开始的查理·芒格致韦斯科股东的信。
原文
In the table, amortization of Goodwill is not charged against the specific businesses but, for reasons outlined in the Appendix to my letter in the 1983 annual report, is aggregated as a separate item. (A compendium of the 1977-1984 letters is available upon request.) In the Business Segment Data and Management’s Discussion sections on pages 39-41 and 49-55, much additional information regarding our businesses is provided, including Goodwill and Goodwill Amortization figures for each of the segments. I urge you to read those sections as well as Charlie Munger’s letter to Wesco shareholders, which starts on page 56.
| (千美元省略) | |||||||
| 税前收益 | 伯克希尔应占净收益(扣除税项和少数股东权益后) | ||||||
| 1985年 | 1984年 | 1985年 | 1984年 | ||||
| 营业收益: | |||||||
| 保险集团: | |||||||
| 承保业务 | $(44,230) | $(48,060) | $(23,569) | $(25,955) | |||
| 净投资收益 | 95,217 | 68,903 | 79,716 | 62,059 | |||
| 联合零售商店 | 270 | (1,072) | 134 | (579) | |||
| 蓝筹印花公司 | 5,763 | (1,843) | 2,813 | (899) | |||
| 布法罗新闻报 | 29,921 | 27,328 | 14,580 | 13,317 | |||
| 共同储蓄与贷款 | 2,622 | 1,456 | 4,016 | 3,151 | |||
| 内布拉斯加家具城 | 12,686 | 14,511 | 5,181 | 5,917 | |||
| 精密钢铁公司 | 3,896 | 4,092 | 1,477 | 1,696 | |||
| 喜诗糖果公司 | 28,989 | 26,644 | 14,558 | 13,380 | |||
| 纺织业务 | (2,395) | 418 | (1,324) | 226 | |||
| 韦斯科金融公司 | 9,500 | 9,777 | 4,191 | 4,828 | |||
| 商誉摊销 | (1,475) | (1,434) | (1,475) | (1,434) | |||
| 债务利息 | (14,415) | (14,734) | (7,288) | (7,452) | |||
| 股东指定捐款 | (4,006) | (3,179) | (2,164) | (1,716) | |||
| 其他 | 3,106 | 4,932 | 2,102 | 3,475 | |||
| 营业收益 | 125,449 | 87,739 | 92,948 | 70,014 | |||
| 通用食品特别分配 | 4,127 | 8,111 | 3,779 | 7,294 | |||
| 华盛顿邮报特别分配 | 14,877 | --- | 13,851 | --- | |||
| 证券出售收益 | 468,903 | 104,699 | 325,237 | 71,587 | |||
| 所有实体总收益 | $613,356 | $200,549 | $435,815 | $148,895 |
原文
| (000s omitted) | |||||||
| Pre-Tax Earnings | Berkshire’s Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and minority interests) | ||||||
| 1985 | 1984 | 1985 | 1984 | ||||
| Operating Earnings: | |||||||
| Insurance Group: | |||||||
| Underwriting | $(44,230) | $(48,060) | $(23,569) | $(25,955) | |||
| Net Investment Income | 95,217 | 68,903 | 79,716 | 62,059 | |||
| Associated Retail Stores | 270 | (1,072) | 134 | (579) | |||
| Blue Chip Stamps | 5,763 | (1,843) | 2,813 | (899) | |||
| Buffalo News | 29,921 | 27,328 | 14,580 | 13,317 | |||
| Mutual Savings and Loan | 2,622 | 1,456 | 4,016 | 3,151 | |||
| Nebraska Furniture Mart | 12,686 | 14,511 | 5,181 | 5,917 | |||
| Precision Steel | 3,896 | 4,092 | 1,477 | 1,696 | |||
| See’s Candies | 28,989 | 26,644 | 14,558 | 13,380 | |||
| Textiles | (2,395) | 418 | (1,324) | 226 | |||
| Wesco Financial | 9,500 | 9,777 | 4,191 | 4,828 | |||
| Amortization of Goodwill | (1,475) | (1,434) | (1,475) | (1,434) | |||
| Interest on Debt | (14,415) | (14,734) | (7,288) | (7,452) | |||
| Shareholder-Designated Contributions | (4,006) | (3,179) | (2,164) | (1,716) | |||
| Other | 3,106 | 4,932 | 2,102 | 3,475 | |||
| Operating Earnings | 125,449 | 87,739 | 92,948 | 70,014 | |||
| Special General Foods Distribution | 4,127 | 8,111 | 3,779 | 7,294 | |||
| Special Washington Post Distribution | 14,877 | --- | 13,851 | --- | |||
| Sales of Securities | 468,903 | 104,699 | 325,237 | 71,587 | |||
| Total Earnings — all entities | $613,356 | $200,549 | $435,815 | $148,895 |
我们1985年的业绩包含了异常巨大的证券出售收益。这个事实本身并不意味着我们度过了一个特别好的年份(尽管确实如此)。某一年的证券收益,与大学毕业典礼有些相似,在典礼那天,过去四年积累的知识得到了认可,但当天并没有学到新东西。我们可能持有一只股票长达十年或更久,在此期间,它的商业价值和市场价值可能始终在稳健增长。但在我们最终出售它的那一年,它的价值可能没有增长,甚至可能下降。然而,自购买以来的所有价值增长都将反映在该出售年份的会计收益中。(不过,如果持有的股票在我们的保险子公司名下,那么市值的任何增减将每年反映在净资产中。)因此,任何特定年份报告的资本收益或损失,作为衡量我们当年表现的指标是毫无意义的。
原文
Our 1985 results include unusually large earnings from the sale of securities. This fact, in itself, does not mean that we had a particularly good year (though, of course, we did). Security profits in a given year bear similarities to a college graduation ceremony in which the knowledge gained over four years is recognized on a day when nothing further is learned. We may hold a stock for a decade or more, and during that period it may grow quite consistently in both business and market value. In the year in which we finally sell it there may be no increase in value, or there may even be a decrease. But all growth in value since purchase will be reflected in the accounting earnings of the year of sale. (If the stock owned is in our insurance subsidiaries, however, any gain or loss in market value will be reflected in net worth annually.) Thus, reported capital gains or losses in any given year are meaningless as a measure of how well we have done in the current year.
1985年巨额已实现收益(税前4.88亿美元中的3.38亿美元)很大一部分来自于我们出售通用食品公司的股票。我们自1980年起持有这些股票的大部分,当时我们以远低于我们认为的每股商业价值的价格买入。年复一年,吉姆·弗格森和菲尔·史密斯的管理努力显著提升了通用食品的商业价值,去年秋天,菲利普·莫里斯公司向该公司发出了反映这种价值增长的收购要约。因此,我们从四个因素中受益:低廉的购买价格、拥有良好基础经济状况的业务、专注于股东利益的管理层,以及愿意支付全部商业价值的买家。虽然只有最后一个因素产生了报告的收益,但我们认为识别前三个因素是为伯克希尔股东创造价值的关键。在选择普通股时,我们将注意力放在有吸引力的购买上,而不是有吸引力的出售可能性上。
原文
A large portion of the realized gain in 1985 ($338 million pre-tax out of a total of $488 million) came about through the sale of our General Foods shares. We held most of these shares since 1980, when we had purchased them at a price far below what we felt was their per/share business value. Year by year, the managerial efforts of Jim Ferguson and Phil Smith substantially increased General Foods’ business value and, last fall, Philip Morris made an offer for the company that reflected the increase. We thus benefited from four factors: a bargain purchase price, a business with fine underlying economics, an able management concentrating on the interests of shareholders, and a buyer willing to pay full business value. While that last factor is the only one that produces reported earnings, we consider identification of the first three to be the key to building value for Berkshire shareholders. In selecting common stocks, we devote our attention to attractive purchases, not to the possibility of attractive sales.
我们再次报告了来自特别分配的巨额收入,今年来自华盛顿邮报和通用食品。(通用食品的交易显然远在菲利普·莫里斯发出收购要约之前就已完成。)当我们向一家公司出售其部分股份,同时该公司从其他股东那里购买股份时,就会发生这种分配。我们出售的股份数量由合同确定,以便我们出售后在该公司的持股比例与出售前完全相同。美国国税局恰当地将此类交易视为实质上等同于股息,因为作为股东,我们获得了现金,同时保持了未变的所有权权益。这种税务处理对我们有利,因为企业纳税人(与个人纳税人不同)在股息收入上缴纳的税款远低于长期资本收益收入。(如果众议院通过的税收法案成为法律,这种差异将进一步扩大:根据其规定,企业实现的资本收益将按与普通收入相同的税率征税。)然而,会计准则对于股东报告中的恰当处理方式并不明确。为了与去年的处理方式保持一致,我们将这些交易列为资本收益。
原文
We have again reported substantial income from special distributions, this year from Washington Post and General Foods. (The General Foods transactions obviously took place well before the Philip Morris offer.) Distributions of this kind occur when we sell a portion of our shares in a company back to it simultaneously with its purchase of shares from other shareholders. The number of shares we sell is contractually set so as to leave our percentage ownership in the company precisely the same after the sale as before. Such a transaction is quite properly regarded by the IRS as substantially equivalent to a dividend since we, as a shareholder, receive cash while maintaining an unchanged ownership interest. This tax treatment benefits us because corporate taxpayers, unlike individual taxpayers, incur much lower taxes on dividend income than on income from long-term capital gains. (This difference will be widened further if the House-passed tax bill becomes law: under its provisions, capital gains realized by corporations will be taxed at the same rate as ordinary income.) However, accounting rules are unclear as to proper treatment for shareholder reporting. To conform with last year’s treatment, we have shown these transactions as capital gains.
尽管我们并未主动寻求此类交易,但在管理层提出想法时,我们曾多次表示同意。在每种情况下,我们都认为,未出售股份的股东(他们都有机会以我们收到的相同价格出售)受益,因为公司以低于内在商业价值的价格进行了回购。我们获得的税收优惠以及我们希望与为所有股东增加价值的管理层合作的意愿,有时促使我们出售股份——但仅以不减少我们在企业中按比例所占份额为限。
原文
Though we have not sought out such transactions, we have agreed to them on several occasions when managements initiated the idea. In each case we have felt that non-selling shareholders (all of whom had an opportunity to sell at the same price we received) benefited because the companies made their repurchases at prices below intrinsic business value. The tax advantages we receive and our wish to cooperate with managements that are increasing values for all shareholders have sometimes led us to sell—but only to the extent that our proportional share of the business was undiminished.
到了这个时候,我们通常会开始讨论我们的一些主要业务部门。然而,在此之前,我们应当首先审视我们一家较小业务部门的失败。我们的副董事长查理·芒格,一贯强调研究错误而非成功,无论是在商业还是生活的其他方面。他这么做是本着这样一个人的精神:“我只想知道我会死在哪里,这样我就永远不去那里。”您马上就会明白为什么我们是一个好团队:查理喜欢研究错误,而我为他提供了充足的材料,尤其是在我们的纺织和保险业务方面。
原文
At this point we usually turn to a discussion of some of our major business units. Before doing so, however, we should first look at a failure at one of our smaller businesses. Our Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, has always emphasized the study of mistakes rather than successes, both in business and other aspects of life. He does so in the spirit of the man who said: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” You’ll immediately see why we make a good team: Charlie likes to study errors and I have generated ample material for him, particularly in our textile and insurance businesses.
纺织业务停产
七月份,我们决定关闭我们的纺织业务,到年底这项不愉快的工作已基本完成。这项业务的历史具有启发性。
原文
Shutdown of Textile Business
In July we decided to close our textile operation, and by yearend this unpleasant job was largely completed. The history of this business is instructive.
当巴菲特合伙有限公司(一家我担任普通合伙人的投资合伙企业)21年前收购伯克希尔·哈撒韦的控制权时,该公司的会计净资产为2200万美元,全部投入纺织业务。然而,公司的内在商业价值要低得多,因为纺织资产无法赚取与其账面价值相称的回报。事实上,在之前的九年(伯克希尔和哈撒韦合并运营的时期),总销售额为5.3亿美元,却产生了1000万美元的总亏损。虽然不时有盈利报告,但净效果总是一步向前,两步后退。
原文
When Buffett Partnership, Ltd., an investment partnership of which I was general partner, bought control of Berkshire Hathaway 21 years ago, it had an accounting net worth of $22 million, all devoted to the textile business. The company’s intrinsic business value, however, was considerably less because the textile assets were unable to earn returns commensurate with their accounting value. Indeed, during the previous nine years (the period in which Berkshire and Hathaway operated as a merged company) aggregate sales of $530 million had produced an aggregate loss of $10 million. Profits had been reported from time to time but the net effect was always one step forward, two steps back.
在我们进行收购时,南方的纺织厂(基本上没有工会)被认为具有重要的竞争优势。大多数北方的纺织厂已经关闭,许多人认为我们也会清算我们的业务。
原文
At the time we made our purchase, southern textile plants—largely non-union—were believed to have an important competitive advantage. Most northern textile operations had closed and many people thought we would liquidate our business as well.
然而,我们觉得,如果由一位我们立即选定为总裁的长期雇员肯·蔡斯来运营,业务会好得多。在这方面,我们100%正确:肯和他最近的继任者加里·莫里森都是出色的经理人,与我们更赚钱业务的经理人完全不相上下。
原文
We felt, however, that the business would be run much better by a long-time employee whom. we immediately selected to be president, Ken Chace. In this respect we were 100% correct: Ken and his recent successor, Garry Morrison, have been excellent managers, every bit the equal of managers at our more profitable businesses.
1967年初,纺织业务产生的现金被用于资助我们通过收购国民赔偿公司进入保险业。部分资金来自盈利,部分来自减少对纺织库存、应收账款和固定资产的投资。这种收缩被证明是明智的:尽管在肯的管理下有了很大改善,但纺织业务从未成为一项好的盈利业务,即使在周期性好转时也是如此。
原文
In early 1967 cash generated by the textile operation was used to fund our entry into insurance via the purchase of National Indemnity Company. Some of the money came from earnings and some from reduced investment in textile inventories, receivables, and fixed assets. This pullback proved wise: although much improved by Ken’s management, the textile business never became a good earner, not even in cyclical upturns.
伯克希尔随后进行了进一步的多元化,随着纺织业务在公司中所占比例逐渐缩小,其对整体回报的拖累效应也逐步减弱。我们继续保留这项业务,原因在我1978年的年度报告中(并在其他时间总结过):“(1) 我们的纺织业务是其所在社区非常重要的雇主;(2) 管理层在报告问题时坦率直接,在解决问题时充满活力;(3) 工会在面对我们共同的问题时予以合作和理解;(4) 相对于投资,该业务应能产生适度的现金回报。”我进一步说,“只要这些条件持续存在——我们预计它们会——尽管有其他更有吸引力的资本用途,我们仍打算继续支持我们的纺织业务。”
原文
Further diversification for Berkshire followed, and gradually the textile operation’s depressing effect on our overall return diminished as the business became a progressively smaller portion of the corporation. We remained in the business for reasons that I stated in the 1978 annual report (and summarized at other times also): “(1) our textile businesses are very important employers in their communities, (2) management has been straightforward in reporting on problems and energetic in attacking them, (3) labor has been cooperative and understanding in facing our common problems, and (4) the business should average modest cash returns relative to investment.” I further said, “As long as these conditions prevail—and we expect that they will—we intend to continue to support our textile business despite more attractive alternative uses for capital.”
结果证明,关于第(4)点的判断大错特错。尽管1979年略有盈利,但此后该业务消耗了大量现金。到1985年年中,即使是我,也明确意识到这种情况几乎肯定会持续下去。如果我们能找到愿意继续经营的买家,我肯定更愿意出售该业务而不是进行清算,即使这意味着我们的收益会少一些。但是,最终对我而言显而易见的经济现实,对其他人也同样显而易见,因此毫无兴趣。
原文
It turned out that I was very wrong about (4). Though 1979 was moderately profitable, the business thereafter consumed major amounts of cash. By mid-1985 it became clear, even to me, that this condition was almost sure to continue. Could we have found a buyer who would continue operations, I would have certainly preferred to sell the business rather than liquidate it, even if that meant somewhat lower proceeds for us. But the economics that were finally obvious to me were also obvious to others, and interest was nil.
我不会仅仅为了给公司回报率增加一点点而关闭盈利低于正常水平的业务。然而,我也认为,即使是异常盈利的公司,一旦某个业务看起来注定会持续亏损,再为其提供资金也是不恰当的。亚当·斯密会不同意我的第一个主张,卡尔·马克思会不同意我的第二个;只有中间立场才让我感到舒适。
原文
I won’t close down businesses of sub-normal profitability merely to add a fraction of a point to our corporate rate of return. However, I also feel it inappropriate for even an exceptionally profitable company to fund an operation once it appears to have unending losses in prospect. Adam Smith would disagree with my first proposition, and Karl Marx would disagree with my second; the middle ground is the only position that leaves me comfortable.
我应该再次强调,肯和加里在试图让我们纺织业务取得成功方面一直足智多谋、充满活力且富有想象力。为了试图实现可持续的盈利能力,他们重新调整了产品线、机器配置和分销安排。我们还进行了一次重大收购——旺贝克纺织厂,期望能产生重要的协同效应(一个广泛用于解释若非如此便毫无意义的收购的商业术语)。但最终一切努力都无济于事,我应该为没有更早地退出而受到责备。最近一篇《商业周刊》文章指出,自1980年以来已有250家纺织厂关闭。它们的所有者并没有获得任何我不知道的信息;他们只是更客观地处理了这些信息。我忽视了孔德的建议——“理智应是心灵的仆人,而非奴隶”,并且只相信了我愿意相信的东西。
原文
I should reemphasize that Ken and Garry have been resourceful, energetic and imaginative in attempting to make our textile operation a success. Trying to achieve sustainable profitability, they reworked product lines, machinery configurations and distribution arrangements. We also made a major acquisition, Waumbec Mills, with the expectation of important synergy (a term widely used in business to explain an acquisition that otherwise makes no sense). But in the end nothing worked and I should be faulted for not quitting sooner. A recent Business Week article stated that 250 textile mills have closed since 1980. Their owners were not privy to any information that was unknown to me; they simply processed it more objectively. I ignored Comte’s advice—“the intellect should be the servant of the heart, but not its slave”—and believed what I preferred to believe.
国内纺织业在商品业务中经营,在一个存在大量过剩产能的世界市场中竞争。我们遇到的许多问题,直接或间接地归因于来自外国工人的竞争,这些工人的工资仅为美国最低工资的一小部分。但这绝不意味着我们的劳动力应该为我们的关闭承担任何责任。事实上,与美国工业界的一般雇员相比,我们的工人收入较低,这在纺织行业一直是如此。在合同谈判中,工会领导人和成员对我们不利的成本地位很敏感,并没有提出不切实际的加薪要求或要求无生产力的工作惯例。相反,他们和我们一样努力试图保持我们的竞争力。即使在我们的清算期间,他们也表现出色。(具有讽刺意味的是,如果我们的工会几年前表现得无理取闹,我们的财务状况反而会更好;那样我们就会认识到我们所面临的无望未来,迅速关闭,并避免未来的重大损失。)
原文
The domestic textile industry operates in a commodity business, competing in a world market in which substantial excess capacity exists. Much of the trouble we experienced was attributable, both directly and indirectly, to competition from foreign countries whose workers are paid a small fraction of the U.S. minimum wage. But that in no way means that our labor force deserves any blame for our closing. In fact, in comparison with employees of American industry generally, our workers were poorly paid, as has been the case throughout the textile business. In contract negotiations, union leaders and members were sensitive to our disadvantageous cost position and did not push for unrealistic wage increases or unproductive work practices. To the contrary, they tried just as hard as we did to keep us competitive. Even during our liquidation period they performed superbly. (Ironically, we would have been better off financially if our union had behaved unreasonably some years ago; we then would have recognized the impossible future that we faced, promptly closed down, and avoided significant future losses.)
多年来,我们本可以选择在纺织业务上进行大量资本支出,这可以使我们略微降低可变成本。每一项这样的提案在当时看来都会立竿见影。实际上,用标准的投资回报率测试来衡量,这些提案通常承诺的经济效益比在我们利润非常丰厚的糖果和报纸业务上进行类似支出所能带来的还要大。
原文
Over the years, we had the option of making large capital expenditures in the textile operation that would have allowed us to somewhat reduce variable costs. Each proposal to do so looked like an immediate winner. Measured by standard return-on-investment tests, in fact, these proposals usually promised greater economic benefits than would have resulted from comparable expenditures in our highly-profitable candy and newspaper businesses.
但是,这些纺织投资所承诺的收益是虚幻的。我们的许多竞争对手,无论是国内还是国外的,也在进行同类支出,一旦足够多的公司这样做,它们降低成本就成为了整个行业降价的基准线。从个体角度看,每家公司的资本投资决策似乎都成本有效且合理;从集体角度看,这些决策相互抵消,变得不合理(就像每个人在看游行时决定踮起脚尖能看得更清楚一点时所发生的情况一样)。每一轮投资之后,所有参与者都在这场游戏中投入了更多资金,而回报依然微薄。
原文
But the promised benefits from these textile investments were illusory. Many of our competitors, both domestic and foreign, were stepping up to the same kind of expenditures and, once enough companies did so, their reduced costs became the baseline for reduced prices industrywide. Viewed individually, each company’s capital investment decision appeared cost-effective and rational; viewed collectively, the decisions neutralized each other and were irrational (just as happens when each person watching a parade decides he can see a little better if he stands on tiptoes). After each round of investment, all the players had more money in the game and returns remained anemic.
因此,我们面临着一个痛苦的选择:巨额资本投资本可以帮助我们的纺织业务维持生存,但会让我们在不断增加的资金上获得糟糕的回报。而且,投资之后,外国竞争对手仍然会在劳动力成本上保持巨大且持续的优势。然而,拒绝投资将使我们在国内纺织制造商面前也日益失去竞争力。我总觉得自己处于伍迪·艾伦在他一部电影中所描述的位置:“比历史上任何时候都更甚,人类面临一个十字路口。一条路通向绝望和彻底的绝望,另一条通向彻底的灭绝。让我们祈祷我们有智慧做出正确的选择。”
原文
Thus, we faced a miserable choice: huge capital investment would have helped to keep our textile business alive, but would have left us with terrible returns on ever-growing amounts of capital. After the investment, moreover, the foreign competition would still have retained a major, continuing advantage in labor costs. A refusal to invest, however, would make us increasingly non-competitive, even measured against domestic textile manufacturers. I always thought myself in the position described by Woody Allen in one of his movies: “More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”
要理解“投资与否”的两难困境如何在商品业务中上演,研究一下伯灵顿工业公司是很有启发性的。无论21年前还是现在,它都是美国遥遥领先的最大纺织公司。1964年,伯灵顿的销售额为12亿美元,而我们只有5000万美元。它在分销和生产方面都拥有我们永远无法企及的实力,而且,当然,其盈利记录也远比我们出色。1964年底,它的股价为60美元;我们的股价为13美元。
原文
For an understanding of how the to-invest-or-not-to-invest dilemma plays out in a commodity business, it is instructive to look at Burlington Industries, by far the largest U.S. textile company both 21 years ago and now. In 1964 Burlington had sales of $1.2 billion against our $50 million. It had strengths in both distribution and production that we could never hope to match and also, of course, had an earnings record far superior to ours. Its stock sold at 60 at the end of 1964; ours was 13.
伯灵顿决定坚守纺织业务,到了1985年,其销售额约为28亿美元。在1964年至1985年期间,该公司进行了约30亿美元的资本支出,远远超过任何其他美国纺织公司,并且相当于那60美元股价的每股200多美元。我确信,其中很大一部分支出用于成本改进和扩张。考虑到伯灵顿坚持留在纺织领域的基本承诺,我也推测该公司的资本决策是相当合理的。
原文
Burlington made a decision to stick to the textile business, and in 1985 had sales of about $2.8 billion. During the 1964-85 period, the company made capital expenditures of about $3 billion, far more than any other U.S. textile company and more than $200-per-share on that $60 stock. A very large part of the expenditures, I am sure, was devoted to cost improvement and expansion. Given Burlington’s basic commitment to stay in textiles, I would also surmise that the company’s capital decisions were quite rational.
尽管如此,伯灵顿的实际销售额按实际美元计算已经下降,如今其销售净利率和权益回报率远低于20年前。股票在1965年2比1拆股,现在售价为34美元——按调整后的基础计算,仅略高于1964年的60美元。与此同时,消费者物价指数已增长超过两倍。因此,每股所能购买的购买力仅约为1964年底的三分之一。虽然一直有定期分红,但分红金额的购买力也大幅缩水。
原文
Nevertheless, Burlington has lost sales volume in real dollars and has far lower returns on sales and equity now than 20 years ago. Split 2-for-1 in 1965, the stock now sells at 34—on an adjusted basis, just a little over its $60 price in 1964. Meanwhile, the CPI has more than tripled. Therefore, each share commands about one-third the purchasing power it did at the end of 1964. Regular dividends have been paid but they, too, have shrunk significantly in purchasing power.
这种对股东而言毁灭性的结果,表明了当大量脑力和精力被应用于一个错误的前提时,可能会发生什么。这种情况让人想起塞缪尔·约翰逊关于马的评论:“一匹能数到十的马是一匹出色的马——但不是一个出色的数学家。”同样,一家在其行业内精明配置资本的纺织公司是一家出色的纺织公司——但绝不是一项出色的业务。
原文
This devastating outcome for the shareholders indicates what can happen when much brain power and energy are applied to a faulty premise. The situation is suggestive of Samuel Johnson’s horse: “A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse—not a remarkable mathematician.” Likewise, a textile company that allocates capital brilliantly within its industry is a remarkable textile company—but not a remarkable business.
我从自己的经验以及大量对其他企业的观察中得出的结论是,良好的管理记录(以经济回报衡量)更多地取决于你进入了哪条商业船,而不是你划船的效率如何(当然,在任何业务中,无论好坏,智力和努力都有很大帮助)。几年前我写道:“当一位以精明著称的管理者接手一家以糟糕的基本经济状况闻名的企业时,最终保持下来的将是这家企业的名声。”此后,我对这件事的看法从未改变。如果你发现自己身处一艘长期漏水的船,把精力花在换船上可能比花在修补漏洞上更有成效。
原文
My conclusion from my own experiences and from much observation of other businesses is that a good managerial record (measured by economic returns) is far more a function of what business boat you get into than it is of how effectively you row (though intelligence and effort help considerably, of course, in any business, good or bad). Some years ago I wrote: “When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” Nothing has since changed my point of view on that matter. Should you find yourself in a chronically-leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.
* * *
在我们的纺织传奇中,有一个投资的尾声。一些投资者在购买股票决策中非常重视账面价值(正如我在早期所做的那样)。一些经济学家和学者认为重置价值对于计算整个股票市场的适当价格水平具有重要意义。持有这两种观点的人,都会在我们1986年初为处置纺织机械而举行的拍卖中得到一次教训。
原文
* * *
There is an investment postscript in our textile saga. Some investors weight book value heavily in their stock-buying decisions (as I, in my early years, did myself). And some economists and academicians believe replacement values are of considerable importance in calculating an appropriate price level for the stock market as a whole. Those of both persuasions would have received an education at the auction we held in early 1986 to dispose of our textile machinery.
出售的设备(包括拍卖前几个月处理掉的一些)占据了新贝德福德约75万平方英尺的工厂空间,并且完全可以使用。它们最初花费我们大约1300万美元,包括1980-84年花费的200万美元,当前账面价值为86.6万美元(加速折旧后)。虽然任何理智的管理层都不会进行这项投资,但更换这些新设备可能需要花费3000万到5000万美元。
原文
The equipment sold (including some disposed of in the few months prior to the auction) took up about 750,000 square feet of factory space in New Bedford and was eminently usable. It originally cost us about $13 million, including $2 million spent in 1980-84, and had a current book value of $866,000 (after accelerated depreciation). Though no sane management would have made the investment, the equipment could have been replaced new for perhaps $30-$50 million.
我们出售这些设备的总收益为163,122美元。扣除必要的售前和售后成本后,我们的净收益为负数。那些1981年以每台5000美元购买的相对现代化的织布机,在50美元的价格下都找不到买家。我们最终以每台26美元的价格作为废品出售,这个金额还低于拆除成本。
原文
Gross proceeds from our sale of this equipment came to $163,122. Allowing for necessary pre- and post-sale costs, our net was less than zero. Relatively modern looms that we bought for $5,000 apiece in 1981 found no takers at $50. We finally sold them for scrap at $26 each, a sum less than removal costs.
想想看:布法罗的两条送报路线——或者一家喜诗糖果店——所代表的经济商誉,远远超过了我们从这批庞大的有形资产出售中获得的收益,而这些资产在不太久远的过去,在截然不同的竞争条件下,曾能雇用超过1000名工人。
原文
Ponder this: the economic goodwill attributable to two paper routes in Buffalo—or a single See’s candy store—considerably exceeds the proceeds we received from this massive collection of tangible assets that not too many years ago, under different competitive conditions, was able to employ over 1,000 people.
三家非常优秀的企业(以及关于激励性薪酬的一些思考)
在我12岁的时候,我和祖父一起住了大约四个月。他是一名杂货商,同时还在写一本书,每晚他都向我口述几页。书名是——做好准备——“如何经营一家杂货店以及我学到的关于钓鱼的一些事情”。我的祖父确信人们对这两个主题的兴趣是普遍的,世界正等待他的观点。您可能会从这个部分的标题和内容得出结论,我受祖父的写作风格(和个性)影响过深。
原文
Three Very Good Businesses (and a Few Thoughts About Incentive Compensation)
When I was 12, I lived with my grandfather for about four months. A grocer by trade, he was also working on a book and each night he dictated a few pages to me. The title—brace yourself—was “How to Run a Grocery Store and a Few Things I Have Learned About Fishing”. My grandfather was sure that interest in these two subjects was universal and that the world awaited his views. You may conclude from this section’s title and contents that I was overexposed to Grandpa’s literary style (and personality).
我在此合并讨论内布拉斯加家具城、喜诗糖果店和布法罗晚报,因为这些业务的经济实力、弱点和前景自一年前我向您报告以来变化甚微。然而,讨论的简短绝对无意贬低这些业务对我们的重要性:1985年,它们总共赚取了7200万美元的税前利润。十五年前,在我们收购它们中的任何一家之前,它们的总税前利润约为800万美元。
原文
I am merging the discussion of Nebraska Furniture Mart, See’s Candy Shops, and Buffalo Evening News here because the economic strengths, weaknesses, and prospects of these businesses have changed little since I reported to you a year ago. The shortness of this discussion, however, is in no way meant to minimize the importance of these businesses to us: in 1985 they earned an aggregate of $72 million pre-tax. Fifteen years ago, before we had acquired any of them, their aggregate earnings were about $8 million pre-tax.
尽管收益从800万美元增长到7200万美元听起来非常棒——通常也确实如此——但你不应自动假设情况如此。你首先必须确保基准年的收益并非严重低迷。如果相反,收益相对于所用资本来说是可观的,那么就必须审视一个更重要的问题:需要多少额外资本才能产生额外的收益?
原文
While an increase in earnings from $8 million to $72 million sounds terrific—and usually is—you should not automatically assume that to be the case. You must first make sure that earnings were not severely depressed in the base year. If they were instead substantial in relation to capital employed, an even more important point must be examined: how much additional capital was required to produce the additional earnings?
在这两个方面,我们这三家公司都得分很高。首先,15年前的收益相对于当时业务所用资本来说非常出色。其次,尽管现在年收益增加了6400万美元,但这些业务运营所需的投资资本仅比那时增加了大约4000万美元。
原文
In both respects, our group of three scores well. First, earnings 15 years ago were excellent compared to capital then employed in the businesses. Second, although annual earnings are now $64 million greater, the businesses require only about $40 million more in invested capital to operate than was the case then.
这三家企业盈利能力的巨大增长,伴随着它们对少量额外资本的需求,很好地说明了经济商誉在通货膨胀时期的力量(这一现象在1983年的年度报告中已有详细阐述)。这些业务的财务特征使我们能够将它们产生的大部分收益用于别处。然而,美国企业界的经历却不同:为了显著增加收益,大多数公司需要大幅增加资本。美国普通企业需要大约5美元的额外资本才能产生1美元的额外年度税前收益。因此,这样的企业需要从其所有者那里获得超过3亿美元的额外资本,才能达到我们这三家公司同样的收益表现。
原文
The dramatic growth in earning power of these three businesses, accompanied by their need for only minor amounts of capital, illustrates very well the power of economic goodwill during an inflationary period (a phenomenon explained in detail in the 1983 annual report). The financial characteristics of these businesses have allowed us to use a very large portion of the earnings they generate elsewhere. Corporate America, however, has had a different experience: in order to increase earnings significantly, most companies have needed to increase capital significantly also. The average American business has required about $5 of additional capital to generate an additional $1 of annual pre-tax earnings. That business, therefore, would have required over $300 million in additional capital from its owners in order to achieve an earnings performance equal to our group of three.
当资本回报率平平的时候,通过投入更多资金赚取更多收入的记录算不上什么了不起的管理成就。你个人也可以在摇椅上做到同样的事情。只需将你投入储蓄账户的资本翻两番,你的收益就会翻两番。你不会期望因为这一特定成就而受到赞美。然而,退休公告经常颂扬那些在任期内,例如,使其小器具公司的收益翻了两番的首席执行官们——却没有人审视这种增长是否仅仅归因于多年的留存收益和复利的作用。
原文
When returns on capital are ordinary, an earn-more-by-putting-up-more record is no great managerial achievement. You can get the same result personally while operating from your rocking chair. just quadruple the capital you commit to a savings account and you will quadruple your earnings. You would hardly expect hosannas for that particular accomplishment. Yet, retirement announcements regularly sing the praises of CEOs who have, say, quadrupled earnings of their widget company during their reign—with no one examining whether this gain was attributable simply to many years of retained earnings and the workings of compound interest.
如果这家小器具公司在此期间始终获得卓越的资本回报率,或者在其CEO任期内所使用的资本仅翻了一番,那么对他的赞扬可能是当之无愧的。但如果资本回报率平平,且所使用的资本与收益同步增长,那么就应保留掌声。一个利息再投资的储蓄账户,同样能实现逐年收益增长——并且,在只有8%的利率下,也能在18年内使年收益翻两番。
原文
If the widget company consistently earned a superior return on capital throughout the period, or if capital employed only doubled during the CEO’s reign, the praise for him may be well deserved. But if return on capital was lackluster and capital employed increased in pace with earnings, applause should be withheld. A savings account in which interest was reinvested would achieve the same year-by-year increase in earnings—and, at only 8% interest, would quadruple its annual earnings in 18 years.
这种简单数学的力量常常被公司忽视,从而损害了股东的利益。许多公司薪酬计划奖励经理人那些完全或很大程度上由留存收益(即从所有者那里扣留的收益)产生的收益增长。例如,十年期固定价格股票期权被常规授予,通常是由那些分红仅占收益一小部分的公司授予的。
原文
The power of this simple math is often ignored by companies to the detriment of their shareholders. Many corporate compensation plans reward managers handsomely for earnings increases produced solely, or in large part, by retained earnings—i.e., earnings withheld from owners. For example, ten-year, fixed-price stock options are granted routinely, often by companies whose dividends are only a small percentage of earnings.
一个例子将说明在这种情况下可能产生的不公平。假设你有一个10万美元的储蓄账户,年利率8%,由一位受托人“管理”,他每年可以决定你应获得多少现金的利息。未支付的利息将作为“留存收益”加入储蓄账户进行复利。再假设你的受托人,以其卓越的智慧,将“派息率”设定为年收益的四分之一。
原文
An example will illustrate the inequities possible under such circumstances. Let’s suppose that you had a $100,000 savings account earning 8% interest and “managed” by a trustee who could decide each year what portion of the interest you were to be paid in cash. Interest not paid out would be “retained earnings” added to the savings account to compound. And let’s suppose that your trustee, in his superior wisdom, set the “pay-out ratio” at one-quarter of the annual earnings.
在这种假设下,十年后您的账户价值将达到179,084美元。此外,在这项富有灵感的管理下,您的年收益将增长约70%,从8,000美元增加到13,515美元。最后,您的“股息”也将相应增加,从第一年的2,000美元稳定增长到第十年的3,378美元。每年,当您经理的公关公司为您准备年度报告时,所有图表中的线条都会向上攀升。
原文
Under these assumptions, your account would be worth $179,084 at the end of ten years. Additionally, your annual earnings would have increased about 70% from $8,000 to $13,515 under this inspired management. And, finally, your “dividends” would have increased commensurately, rising regularly from $2,000 in the first year to $3,378 in the tenth year. Each year, when your manager’s public relations firm prepared his annual report to you, all of the charts would have had lines marching skyward.
现在,为了好玩,让我们将情景再推进一步,给您的受托人经理一个十年期固定价格期权,可以购买您部分“业务”(即您的储蓄账户),行权价基于第一年的公允价值。有了这样的期权,您的经理将牺牲您的利益而获得可观的利润——仅仅是因为保留了您的大部分收益。如果您的经理既是马基雅维利式的人物又懂一点数学,他一旦稳固地位后,甚至可能会降低派息率。
原文
Now, just for fun, let’s push our scenario one notch further and give your trustee-manager a ten-year fixed-price option on part of your “business” (i.e., your savings account) based on its fair value in the first year. With such an option, your manager would reap a substantial profit at your expense—just from having held on to most of your earnings. If he were both Machiavellian and a bit of a mathematician, your manager might also have cut the pay-out ratio once he was firmly entrenched.
这种情景并非像你想象的那样牵强。企业界的许多股票期权正是以这种方式运作:它们的价值上涨仅仅是因为管理层保留了收益,而不是因为他们对所掌握的资本运用得当。
原文
This scenario is not as farfetched as you might think. Many stock options in the corporate world have worked in exactly that fashion: they have gained in value simply because management retained earnings, not because it did well with the capital in its hands.
实际上,经理人对期权采用了双重标准。撇开权证不谈(权证能为发行公司立即带来可观的补偿),我相信可以公平地说,在企业界,没有哪家公司会将针对全部或部分业务的十年期固定价格期权授予外部人士。事实上,十个月都被认为是极端的。尤其不可想象的是,经理人会向某项定期增加资本的业务授予长期期权。任何希望获得此类期权的外部人士,都将被要求为期权期内增加的资本支付全额价款。
原文
Managers actually apply a double standard to options. Leaving aside warrants (which deliver the issuing corporation immediate and substantial compensation), I believe it is fair to say that nowhere in the business world are ten-year fixed-price options on all or a portion of a business granted to outsiders. Ten months, in fact, would be regarded as extreme. It would be particularly unthinkable for managers to grant a long-term option on a business that was regularly adding to its capital. Any outsider wanting to secure such an option would be required to pay fully for capital added during the option period.
经理人对自己不做之事(给予外人)的抵触,与他们对自己做之事(给予自己)的意愿并不匹配。(与自己谈判很少会引发酒吧斗殴。)经理人经常为自己和同僚设计十年期固定价格期权,这些期权首先完全忽视了留存收益会自动创造价值这一事实,其次忽视了资本的持有成本。结果,这些经理人最终获得的利润,就像他们持有那个自动增值的储蓄账户的期权一样。
原文
The unwillingness of managers to do-unto-outsiders, however, is not matched by an unwillingness to do-unto-themselves. (Negotiating with one’s self seldom produces a barroom brawl.) Managers regularly engineer ten-year, fixed-price options for themselves and associates that, first, totally ignore the fact that retained earnings automatically build value and, second, ignore the carrying cost of capital. As a result, these managers end up profiting much as they would have had they had an option on that savings account that was automatically building up in value.
当然,股票期权通常会授予有才华、能增加价值的经理人,有时会给他们带来完全适当的回报。(事实上,真正出色的经理人获得的报酬几乎总是远低于他们应得的。)但是,当结果是公平的时候,那是偶然的。一旦授予,期权对个人表现是盲目的。因为它是不可撤销且无条件的(只要经理人留在公司),懒汉从他的期权中得到的奖励与明星经理人一模一样。一个管理层中的里普·凡·温克尔,准备沉睡十年,也找不到比这更好的“激励”制度了。
原文
Of course, stock options often go to talented, value-adding managers and sometimes deliver them rewards that are perfectly appropriate. (Indeed, managers who are really exceptional almost always get far less than they should.) But when the result is equitable, it is accidental. Once granted, the option is blind to individual performance. Because it is irrevocable and unconditional (so long as a manager stays in the company), the sluggard receives rewards from his options precisely as does the star. A managerial Rip Van Winkle, ready to doze for ten years, could not wish for a better “incentive” system.
(我忍不住要对给予一个“外部人士”的长期期权发表评论:即美国政府在克莱斯勒股份上获得的期权,作为政府担保部分救市贷款的回报。当这些期权对政府有利时,克莱斯勒试图修改付款条件,辩称给政府的回报远高于预期,并且相对于政府对克莱斯勒复苏的贡献而言数额过大。公司对于其认为的回报与业绩之间的不均衡的痛苦成为全国新闻。这种痛苦可能是独一无二的:据我所知,没有任何地方的经理人,曾对因授予自己或其同事的期权而产生的不合理回报表示过类似的愤慨。)
原文
(I can’t resist commenting on one long-term option given an “outsider”: that granted the U.S. Government on Chrysler shares as partial consideration for the government’s guarantee of some lifesaving loans. When these options worked out well for the government, Chrysler sought to modify the payoff, arguing that the rewards to the government were both far greater than intended and outsize in relation to its contribution to Chrysler’s recovery. The company’s anguish over what it saw as an imbalance between payoff and performance made national news. That anguish may well be unique: to my knowledge, no managers—anywhere—have been similarly offended by unwarranted payoffs arising from options granted to themselves or their colleagues.)
具有讽刺意味的是,关于期权的言论经常将它们描述为可取的,因为它们将经理人和所有者放在了同一条财务船上。实际上,这两条船大不相同。没有一位所有者能够逃脱资本成本的负担,而固定价格期权的持有人却完全不承担任何资本成本。所有者必须权衡上行潜力与下行风险;期权持有人没有下行风险。事实上,你希望拥有期权的商业项目,往往是你宁愿拒绝所有权的项目。(我很乐意接受作为礼物的彩票——但我永远不会买一张。)
原文
Ironically, the rhetoric about options frequently describes them as desirable because they put managers and owners in the same financial boat. In reality, the boats are far different. No owner has ever escaped the burden of capital costs, whereas a holder of a fixed-price option bears no capital costs at all. An owner must weigh upside potential against downside risk; an option holder has no downside. In fact, the business project in which you would wish to have an option frequently is a project in which you would reject ownership. (I’ll be happy to accept a lottery ticket as a gift—but I’ll never buy one.)
在股息政策方面,期权持有人的利益也最好由可能对所有者不利的政策来服务。回想一下储蓄账户的例子。持有期权的受托人将从无股息政策中受益。相反,账户的所有者应倾向于全额派息,以便防止持有期权的经理分享账户的留存收益。
原文
In dividend policy also, the option holders’ interests are best served by a policy that may ill serve the owner. Think back to the savings account example. The trustee, holding his option, would benefit from a no-dividend policy. Conversely, the owner of the account should lean to a total payout so that he can prevent the option-holding manager from sharing in the account’s retained earnings.
尽管有这些缺点,期权在某些情况下可能是合适的。我的批评针对的是它们被不加区别地使用,在这方面,我想强调三点:
原文
Despite their shortcomings, options can be appropriate under some circumstances. My criticism relates to their indiscriminate use and, in that connection, I would like to emphasize three points:
第一,股票期权不可避免地与公司的整体业绩挂钩。因此,从逻辑上讲,它们只应授予那些负有全面责任的经理人。负责有限领域的经理人应该获得与其可控范围内的结果挂钩的激励。0.350的击球手期待并且也应当因其表现获得丰厚回报——即使他是在垫底球队打球。而0.150的击球手不应获得任何奖励——即使他是在赢得分区冠军的球队打球。只有那些对球队负总责的人才应该将其奖励与球队成绩挂钩。
原文
First, stock options are inevitably tied to the overall performance of a corporation. Logically, therefore, they should be awarded only to those managers with overall responsibility. Managers with limited areas of responsibility should have incentives that pay off in relation to results under their control. The .350 hitter expects, and also deserves, a big payoff for his performance—even if he plays for a cellar-dwelling team. And the .150 hitter should get no reward—even if he plays for a pennant winner. Only those with overall responsibility for the team should have their rewards tied to its results.
第二,期权应精心设计。除非有特殊因素,否则它们应该内置留存收益或资本持有成本因素。同样重要的是,它们应该以现实的价格定价。当经理人面临收购其公司出价时,他们总会指出市场价格作为真实价值指标可能有多么不现实。但为什么这些相同的低迷价格,却成了经理人将部分业务出售给自己的估值依据呢?(他们可能更进一步:高管和董事有时会查阅税法,以确定他们实际上可以将部分业务出售给内部人士的最低价格。与此同时,他们经常选择对公司税收结果最差的计划。)除非在极不寻常的情况下,以低廉的价格出售部分业务——无论是对外部人士还是内部人士——都不符合所有者的利益。显而易见的结论是:期权应以真实的商业价值定价。
原文
Second, options should be structured carefully. Absent special factors, they should have built into them a retained-earnings or carrying-cost factor. Equally important, they should be priced realistically. When managers are faced with offers for their companies, they unfailingly point out how unrealistic market prices can be as an index of real value. But why, then, should these same depressed prices be the valuations at which managers sell portions of their businesses to themselves? (They may go further: officers and directors sometimes consult the Tax Code to determine the lowest prices at which they can, in effect, sell part of the business to insiders. While they’re at it, they often elect plans that produce the worst tax result for the company.) Except in highly unusual cases, owners are not well served by the sale of part of their business at a bargain price—whether the sale is to outsiders or to insiders. The obvious conclusion: options should be priced at true business value.
第三,我想强调的是,一些我极其钦佩的经理人——他们的运营记录远胜于我——在固定价格期权问题上与我有分歧。他们建立了行之有效的企业文化,固定价格期权是帮助他们实现这一目标的工具。通过他们的领导和榜样,以及使用
1985年致股东信
第二部分
我们正确预见到,许多大型保险和再保险买家会转向寻求质量可靠的保险公司。他们迟迟才认识到,保单只不过是一张借据——而在1985年,他们手中的许多借据已经无法兑现。如今,这些买家被伯克希尔强大的资本实力所吸引。但除此之外,一个我们未曾预料到的情况是,我们发现自己也吸引了那些因为伯克希尔有能力承保重大风险而脱颖而出的客户。
原文
We correctly foresaw a flight to quality by many large buyers of insurance and reinsurance who belatedly recognized that a policy is only an IOU—and who, in 1985, could not collect on many of their IOUs. These buyers today are attracted to Berkshire because of its strong capital position. But, in a development we did not foresee, we also are finding buyers drawn to us because our ability to insure substantial risks sets us apart from the crowd.
要理解这一点,你需要了解一些关于大额风险承保的背景知识。传统上,许多保险公司都希望承保这类业务。然而,它们之所以愿意这样做,几乎总是基于再保险安排,这使得保险公司自身只保留一小部分风险,而将大部分风险转嫁给其再保险公司。例如,假设一份董事及高级职员(D&O)责任险保单提供了2500万美元的保障。通过各种“超赔”再保险合同,签发该保单的公司可能只保留任何损失中最初100万美元的赔偿责任。而超过此金额直至2400万美元的损失,则由签发保险公司的再保险公司承担。用行业术语来说,一家签发大额保单但自身只承担相对较少风险的公司,被称为“毛承保额大,净承保额小”。
原文
To understand this point, you need a few background facts about large risks. Traditionally, many insurers have wanted to write this kind of business. However, their willingness to do so has been almost always based upon reinsurance arrangements that allow the insurer to keep just a small portion of the risk itself while passing on (“laying off”) most of the risk to its reinsurers. Imagine, for example, a directors and officers (“D & O”) liability policy providing $25 million of coverage. By various “excess-of-loss” reinsurance contracts, the company issuing that policy might keep the liability for only the first $1 million of any loss that occurs. The liability for any loss above that amount up to $24 million would be borne by the reinsurers of the issuing insurer. In trade parlance, a company that issues large policies but retains relatively little of the risk for its own account writes a large gross line but a small net line.
在任何再保险安排中,一个关键问题是,为保单支付的保费应如何在不同的风险“层”之间分配。以我们提到的D&O保单为例,收到的保费中,有多少应该由签发公司保留,以公平地补偿其承担最初的100万美元风险?又有多少应该转给再保险公司,以公平地补偿其承担100万美元到2500万美元之间的风险?
原文
In any reinsurance arrangement, a key question is how the premiums paid for the policy should be divided among the various “layers” of risk. In our D & O policy, for example. what part of the premium received should be kept by the issuing company to compensate it fairly for taking the first $1 million of risk and how much should be passed on to the reinsurers to compensate them fairly for taking the risk between $1 million and $25 million?
解决这个问题的一种方法或许可以称为“帕特里克·亨利式”的途径:“我只有一盏引路的明灯,那就是经验之灯。”换句话说,再保险公司过去需要多少总保费,才能公平补偿它们实际必须承担的损失?
原文
One way to solve this problem might be deemed the Patrick Henry approach: “I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience.” In other words, how much of the total premium would reinsurers have needed in the past to compensate them fairly for the losses they actually had to bear?
不幸的是,经验之灯为再保险公司提供的光照从未完美过,因为它们的业务大部分属于“长尾”性质,这意味着需要很多年才能知道自己的损失情况。然而最近,这盏灯不仅光线昏暗,而且它所呈现的图像还极具误导性。也就是说,法院倾向于判给既巨额又缺乏先例的赔偿,这使得再保险公司通常基于历史数据进行的推断或推测成为灾难性的公式。帕特里克·亨利的话行不通了,换上波戈的话:“未来已不再是过去的样子。”
原文
Unfortunately, the lamp of experience has always provided imperfect illumination for reinsurers because so much of their business is “long-tail”, meaning it takes many years before they know what their losses are. Lately, however, the light has not only been dim but also grossly misleading in the images it has revealed. That is, the courts’ tendency to grant awards that are both huge and lacking in precedent makes reinsurers’ usual extrapolations or inferences from past data a formula for disaster. Out with Patrick Henry and in with Pogo: “The future ain’t what it used to be.”
业务中日益增长的不确定性,加上许多经验不足的参与者进入再保险市场,近年来有利于那些净承保额小的签发公司:它们能够保留的保费比例远高于其承担的风险比例。通过这样做,签发公司有时能从对签发公司和再保险公司总体而言明显无利可图的业务中获利。(这个结果不一定是故意的:通常情况下,签发公司并不比再保险公司更了解在更高风险层将会产生的最终成本。)这种不公平现象在那些变化很多、损失激增的保险类别中尤其明显,例如:专业人士渎职险、D&O险、产品责任险等。鉴于这些情况,毫不奇怪,即使在毛保费总额基础上早已严重不足之时,签发公司仍然热情高涨地承保业务。
原文
The burgeoning uncertainties of the business, coupled with the entry into reinsurance of many unsophisticated participants, worked in recent years in favor of issuing companies writing a small net line: they were able to keep a far greater percentage of the premiums than the risk. By doing so, the issuing companies sometimes made money on business that was distinctly unprofitable for the issuing and reinsuring companies combined. (This result was not necessarily by intent: issuing companies generally knew no more than reinsurers did about the ultimate costs that would be experienced at higher layers of risk.) Inequities of this sort have been particularly pronounced in lines of insurance in which much change was occurring and losses were soaring; e.g., professional malpractice, D & O, products liability, etc. Given these circumstances, it is not surprising that issuing companies remained enthusiastic about writing business long after premiums became woefully inadequate on a gross basis.
一家在大额和特殊风险领域的领先保险公司1984年的财务数据,提供了一个关于签发公司与它们的再保险公司之间结果差异多么巨大的例子。那一年,该公司承保了约60亿美元的业务,并保留了约25亿美元的保费,约占40%。它将剩余的35亿美元给了再保险公司。在其保留的业务部分,公司的承保损失不到2亿美元——这在当年是很出色的成绩。与此同时,转嫁出去的部分却给再保险公司带来了超过15亿美元的损失。因此,这家签发公司的综合比率远低于110,而参与同样保单的再保险公司,其综合比率却大大超过140。这一结果并非由自然灾害造成;它来自于普通的保险损失(但发生频率和规模都令人吃惊)。该签发公司1985年的报告尚未出炉,但我预测它将会显示这种严重不平衡的结果仍在继续。
原文
An example of just how disparate results have been for issuing companies versus their reinsurers is provided by the 1984 financials of one of the leaders in large and unusual risks. In that year the company wrote about $6 billion of business and kept around $2 1/2 billion of the premiums, or about 40%. It gave the remaining $3 1/2 billion to reinsurers. On the part of the business kept, the company’s underwriting loss was less than $200 million—an excellent result in that year. Meanwhile, the part laid off produced a loss of over $1.5 billion for the reinsurers. Thus, the issuing company wrote at a combined ratio of well under 110 while its reinsurers, participating in precisely the same policies, came in considerably over 140. This result was not attributable to natural catastrophes; it came from run-of-the-mill insurance losses (occurring, however, in surprising frequency and size). The issuing company’s 1985 report is not yet available, but I would predict it will show that dramatically unbalanced results continued.
这样几年下来,即使反应迟钝的再保险公司也会失去兴趣,尤其是在那些爆炸性的险种中,签单公司与再保险公司之间的合理保费分配根本无法大致估算。再保险公司的行为最终变得像马克·吐温笔下的猫:一旦坐在了热炉子上,它就再也不会坐了——但它也永远不再坐冷炉子了。再保险公司在长尾责任险上经历了太多不愉快的意外,以至于许多公司(可能是正确地)决定完全退出这个游戏,无论价格激励多么诱人。因此,在某些重要险种领域,再保险承保能力出现了戏剧性的收缩。
原文
A few years such as this, and even slow-witted reinsurers can lose interest, particularly in explosive lines where the proper split in premium between issuer and reinsurer remains impossible to even roughly estimate. The behavior of reinsurers finally becomes like that of Mark Twain’s cat: having once sat on a hot stove, it never did so again—but it never again sat on a cold stove, either. Reinsurers have had so many unpleasant surprises in long-tail casualty lines that many have decided (probably correctly) to give up the game entirely, regardless of price inducements. Consequently, there has been a dramatic pull-back of reinsurance capacity in certain important lines.
这一发展使许多签发公司面临压力。它们不再能像仅仅一两年之前那样轻松地反复从再保险公司那里为每张保单获得数千万美元的承诺,而且它们自身也没有足够的资本和/或意愿来为自己的账户承担大额风险。对于许多签发公司来说,毛承保能力已经大幅萎缩,接近于净承保能力——而后者往往确实很小。
原文
This development has left many issuing companies under pressure. They can no longer commit their reinsurers, time after time, for tens of millions per policy as they so easily could do only a year or two ago, and they do not have the capital and/or appetite to take on large risks for their own account. For many issuing companies, gross capacity has shrunk much closer to net capacity—and that is often small, indeed.
在伯克希尔,我们从未玩过这种“通过转嫁风险来盈利”的游戏,直到最近,这使我们在某些险种领域处于严重劣势。现在形势逆转了:我们拥有承保能力,而他人没有。如果我们认为价格合适,我们愿意签下比除最大保险公司之外任何公司都大的净承保额。例如,我们完全愿意在一个单一事件上冒损失1000万美元自有资金的风险,只要我们相信价格合适,并且该损失风险与我们承保的其他风险没有显著相关性。很少有保险公司愿意在单一事件上冒一半那么多的风险——尽管就在不久之前,许多公司愿意冒五倍甚至十倍于此的损失,只要几乎所有损失都由它们的再保险公司承担。
原文
At Berkshire we have never played the lay-it-off-at-a-profit game and, until recently, that put us at a severe disadvantage in certain lines. Now the tables are turned: we have the underwriting capability whereas others do not. If we believe the price to be right, we are willing to write a net line larger than that of any but the largest insurers. For instance, we are perfectly willing to risk losing $10 million of our own money on a single event, as long as we believe that the price is right and that the risk of loss is not significantly correlated with other risks we are insuring. Very few insurers are willing to risk half that much on single events—although, just a short while ago, many were willing to lose five or ten times that amount as long as virtually all of the loss was for the account of their reinsurers.
1985年中,我们最大的保险公司——国民赔偿公司——在一家保险周刊的三期上刊登广告,表明其承保大额风险的意愿。该广告只征集大额保单:最低保费为100万美元。这则广告收到了惊人的600份回复,最终产生了总计约5000万美元的保费。(暂且不要鼓掌:这都是长尾业务,至少要五年后我们才能知道这次市场营销的成功是否也是承保的成功。)如今,我们的保险子公司仍然是那些寻找大额净承保能力的经纪人所追捧的对象。
原文
In mid-1985 our largest insurance company, National Indemnity Company, broadcast its willingness to underwrite large risks by running an ad in three issues of an insurance weekly. The ad solicited policies of only large size: those with a minimum premium of $1 million. This ad drew a remarkable 600 replies and ultimately produced premiums totaling about $50 million. (Hold the applause: it’s all long-tail business and it will be at least five years before we know whether this marketing success was also an underwriting success.) Today, our insurance subsidiaries continue to be sought out by brokers searching for large net capacity.
正如我所说,这段市场紧张的时期将会过去;保险公司和再保险公司会重新回到低价承保。但在一两年内,我们保险业务的几个领域应该会做得不错。迈克·戈德堡在运营上做出了许多重要改进(之前您的主席管理不善,为他提供了充足的机会来这样做)。他最近在招聘潜力巨大的年轻经理方面尤为成功。他们将在1986年有机会一展身手。
原文
As I have said, this period of tightness will pass; insurers and reinsurers will return to underpricing. But for a year or two we should do well in several segments of our insurance business. Mike Goldberg has made many important improvements in the operation (prior mismanagement by your Chairman having provided him ample opportunity to do so). He has been particularly successful recently in hiring young managers with excellent potential. They will have a chance to show their stuff in 1986.
我们的综合比率有所改善——从1984年的134降至1985年的111——但仍然反映了过去的失误。去年我告诉过你们我在损失准备金计提方面犯的重大错误,并承诺每年向你们更新损失发展数据。当然,我做出这个承诺时,以为我未来的记录会大大改善。但到目前为止,情况并非如此。去年损失发展的详细情况见第50-52页。它们显示,在1984年底存在显著的准备金不足,这与前几年的情况一样。
原文
Our combined ratio has improved—from 134 in 1984 to 111 in 1985—but continues to reflect past misdeeds. Last year I told you of the major mistakes I had made in loss-reserving, and promised I would update you annually on loss-development figures. Naturally, I made this promise thinking my future record would be much improved. So far this has not been the case. Details on last year’s loss development are on pages 50-52. They reveal significant underreserving at the end of 1984, as they did in the several years preceding.
这个景象中唯一的亮点是,几乎所有1984年暴露的准备金不足都发生在再保险领域——而且很大程度上集中在几份几年前就已终止的合同上。然而,这个解释让我想起多年前通用再保险公司时任董事长告诉我的一则轶事。他说,每年他的经理们都会告诉他,“要不是佛罗里达的飓风”或“要不是中西部的龙卷风”,他们本会取得一个极好的年份。最后,他把大家召集起来,建议成立一家新的公司——“要不是”保险公司——今后他们可以把所有后来不想算进去的业务都放在这家公司里。
原文
The only bright spot in this picture is that virtually all of the underreserving revealed in 1984 occurred in the reinsurance area—and there, in very large part, in a few contracts that were discontinued several years ago. This explanation, however, recalls all too well a story told me many years ago by the then Chairman of General Reinsurance Company. He said that every year his managers told him that “except for the Florida hurricane” or “except for Midwestern tornadoes”, they would have had a terrific year. Finally he called the group together and suggested that they form a new operation—the Except-For Insurance Company—in which they would henceforth place all of the business that they later wouldn’t want to count.
在任何商业领域,无论保险还是其他,“要不是”这个词都应该从词典中删除。如果你要参加比赛,你必须计算对方在所有九局中打出的分数。任何总是说“要不是”,然后报告自己从错误中学到的教训的经理,可能错过了唯一重要的教训——即,真正的错误不是行为本身,而是行动者。
原文
In any business, insurance or otherwise, “except for” should be excised from the lexicon. If you are going to play the game, you must count the runs scored against you in all nine innings. Any manager who consistently says “except for” and then reports on the lessons he has learned from his mistakes may be missing the only important lesson—namely, that the real mistake is not the act, but the actor.
当然,业务错误不可避免,明智的经营者会努力从中吸取恰当的教训。但诀窍在于从他人的经验中学习大部分教训。那些过去从个人经历中学到很多的经营者,未来通常注定要从个人经历中学到很多。
原文
Inevitably, of course, business errors will occur and the wise manager will try to find the proper lessons in them. But the trick is to learn most lessons from the experiences of others. Managers who have learned much from personal experience in the past usually are destined to learn much from personal experience in the future.
伯克希尔持有38%股份的GEICO公司,在1985年保费增长和投资业绩方面表现优异,但按其高标准来看,承保业绩却不尽人意。私家车险和房主保险是当年行业结果显著恶化的仅有的几个重要险种。GEICO未能幸免于这一趋势,尽管其记录远优于几乎所有主要竞争对手。
原文
GEICO, 38%-owned by Berkshire, reported an excellent year in 1985 in premium growth and investment results, but a poor year—by its lofty standards—in underwriting. Private passenger auto and homeowners insurance were the only important lines in the industry whose results deteriorated significantly during the year. GEICO did not escape the trend, although its record was far better than that of virtually all its major competitors.
杰克·伯恩在年中离开GEICO去领导Fireman’s Fund保险公司,留下比尔·斯奈德担任董事长,卢·辛普森担任副董事长。杰克在将GEICO从破产边缘复兴方面的表现确实卓越非凡,他的工作为伯克希尔带来了巨大的收益。我们对此深表感激。
原文
Jack Byrne left GEICO at mid-year to head Fireman’s Fund, leaving behind Bill Snyder as Chairman and Lou Simpson as Vice Chairman. Jack’s performance in reviving GEICO from near-bankruptcy was truly extraordinary, and his work resulted in enormous gains for Berkshire. We owe him a great deal for that.
同样,我们也感激杰克取得了一项多数杰出领导人难以企及的成就:他找到了与自己能力同样宝贵的继任者。凭借他识别、吸引和培养比尔与卢的技巧,杰克将其管理贡献的效益远远延续到了他的任期之后。
原文
We are equally indebted to Jack for an achievement that eludes most outstanding leaders: he found managers to succeed him who have talents as valuable as his own. By his skill in identifying, attracting and developing Bill and Lou, Jack extended the benefits of his managerial stewardship well beyond his tenure.
Fireman’s Fund 比例分保合同
我们总是紧跟饭碗不放,因此跟随杰克·伯恩来到了Fireman’s Fund(简称“FFIC”),他现任该控股公司的董事长兼CEO。
原文
Fireman’s Fund Quota-Share Contract
Never one to let go of a meal ticket, we have followed Jack Byrne to Fireman’s Fund (“FFIC”) where he is Chairman and CEO of the holding company.
1985年9月1日,我们成为FFIC集团所有有效业务7%的参与者,但该集团为非关联公司承保的再保险业务除外。我们的合同为期四年,规定在合同期内,我们的损失和成本将与他们的损失和成本按比例分摊。若不续约,此后我们将不再参与任何持续业务。然而,在未来很多年里,我们将就1985年9月1日至1989年8月31日期间发生的损失,向FFIC支付我们应承担的7%的赔偿。
原文
On September 1, 1985 we became a 7% participant in all of the business in force of the FFIC group, with the exception of reinsurance they write for unaffiliated companies. Our contract runs for four years, and provides that our losses and costs will be proportionate to theirs throughout the contract period. If there is no extension, we will thereafter have no participation in any ongoing business. However, for a great many years in the future, we will be reimbursing FFIC for our 7% of the losses that occurred in the September 1, 1985—August 31, 1989 period.
根据合同,FFIC及时向我们汇付保费,我们也及时向FFIC支付其已支付的费用和损失。因此,我们业务份额所产生的资金由我们持有用于投资。作为交易的一部分,我可以为FFIC提供一般投资策略方面的咨询。但我并不参与FFIC的具体投资决策,伯克希尔也不参与该公司承保活动的任何方面。
原文
Under the contract FFIC remits premiums to us promptly and we reimburse FFIC promptly for expenses and losses it has paid. Thus, funds generated by our share of the business are held by us for investment. As part of the deal, I’m available to FFIC for consultation about general investment strategy. I’m not involved, however, in specific investment decisions of FFIC, nor is Berkshire involved in any aspect of the company’s underwriting activities.
目前,FFIC的业务量约为30亿美元,随着费率上升,业务量可能会更多。该公司1985年9月1日的未赚保费准备金为13.24亿美元,因此在合同开始时,其将其中7%(即9270万美元)转给了我们。我们同时向他们支付了2940万美元,代表他们在转付保费上已经发生的承保费用。所有FFIC的业务都由国民赔偿公司承保,但其七分之二的部分转给了Wesco-Financial Insurance Company(“Wes-FIC”),这是一家由我们持有80%股份的子公司Wesco Financial Corporation新设立的公司。查理·芒格在第60-62页对Wes-FIC和再保险业务有一些有趣的评论。
原文
Currently FFIC is doing about $3 billion of business, and it will probably do more as rates rise. The company’s September 1, 1985 unearned premium reserve was $1.324 billion, and it therefore transferred 7% of this, or $92.7 million, to us at initiation of the contract. We concurrently paid them $29.4 million representing the underwriting expenses that they had incurred on the transferred premium. All of the FFIC business is written by National Indemnity Company, but two-sevenths of it is passed along to Wesco-Financial Insurance Company (“Wes-FIC”), a new company organized by our 80%-owned subsidiary, Wesco Financial Corporation. Charlie Munger has some interesting comments about Wes-FIC and the reinsurance business on pages 60-62.
在第41页的保险业务分部表格中,我们增加了一行新内容,标注为“主要比例分保合同”。FFIC合同1985年的结果在此处报告,但由于该安排的时间较短,这些结果仅为非常粗略的估算。
原文
To the Insurance Segment tables on page 41, we have added a new line, labeled Major Quota Share Contracts. The 1985 results of the FFIC contract are reported there, though the newness of the arrangement makes these results only very rough approximations.
年底过后,我们又获得了一份比例分保合同,其1986年的业务量应超过5000万美元。我们希望发展更多此类业务,行业状况表明我们有可能做到:相当多的公司产生的业务量超过了它们自身能够审慎处理的水平。我们的财务实力使我们成为这些公司有吸引力的合作伙伴。
原文
After the end of the year, we secured another quota-share contract, whose 1986 volume should be over $50 million. We hope to develop more of this business, and industry conditions suggest that we could: a significant number of companies are generating more business than they themselves can prudently handle. Our financial strength makes us an attractive partner for such companies.
可交易证券
下面我们列示1985年底我们持有的可交易股票净额。所有市值超过2500万美元的头寸均已列出,并且已排除Wesco和Nebraska Furniture Mart的少数股东应占权益。
原文
Marketable Securities
We show below our 1985 yearend net holdings in marketable equities. All positions with a market value over $25 million are listed, and the interests attributable to minority shareholders of Wesco and Nebraska Furniture Mart are excluded.
| 持股数量 | 成本 | 市值 | ||
| (千美元省略) | ||||
| 1,036,461 | Affiliated Publications, Inc. | $ 3,516 | $ 55,710 | |
| 900,800 | American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. | 54,435 | 108,997 | |
| 2,350,922 | Beatrice Companies, Inc. | 106,811 | 108,142 | |
| 6,850,000 | GEICO Corporation | 45,713 | 595,950 | |
| 2,379,200 | Handy & Harman | 27,318 | 43,718 | |
| 847,788 | Time, Inc. | 20,385 | 52,669 | |
| 1,727,765 | The Washington Post Company | 9,731 | 205,172 | |
| 267,909 | 1,170,358 | |||
| 所有其他普通股持股 | 7,201 | 27,963 | ||
| 普通股总计 | $275,110 | $1,198,321 |
原文
| No. of Shares | Cost | Market | |||
| (000s omitted) | |||||
| 1,036,461 | Affiliated Publications, Inc. | $ 3,516 | $ 55,710 | ||
| 900,800 | American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. | 54,435 | 108,997 | ||
| 2,350,922 | Beatrice Companies, Inc. | 106,811 | 108,142 | ||
| 6,850,000 | GEICO Corporation | 45,713 | 595,950 | ||
| 2,379,200 | Handy & Harman | 27,318 | 43,718 | ||
| 847,788 | Time, Inc. | 20,385 | 52,669 | ||
| 1,727,765 | The Washington Post Company | 9,731 | 205,172 | ||
| 267,909 | 1,170,358 | ||||
| All Other Common Stockholdings | 7,201 | 27,963 | |||
| Total Common Stocks | $275,110 | $1,198,321 |
我们之前提到过,在过去十年中,投资环境已经从一个优秀企业完全不被认可的情况,转变为一个它们得到恰当认可的情况。华盛顿邮报公司(“WPC”)就是一个很好的例子。
原文
We mentioned earlier that in the past decade the investment environment has changed from one in which great businesses were totally unappreciated to one in which they are appropriately recognized. The Washington Post Company (“WPC”) provides an excellent example.
我们在1973年中买入了所有WPC的持仓,买入价格不超过当时该公司每股内在业务价值的四分之一。计算价格/价值比并不需要什么特别的洞察力。大多数证券分析师、媒体经纪人和媒体高管,都会像我们一样估计WPC的内在业务价值在4亿到5亿美元之间。而其1亿美元的股市估值每天都公之于众。相反,我们的优势在于态度:我们从本·格雷厄姆那里学到,成功投资的关键是在市场价格远低于内在业务价值时,购买优质企业的股票。
原文
We bought all of our WPC holdings in mid-1973 at a price of not more than one-fourth of the then per-share business value of the enterprise. Calculating the price/value ratio required no unusual insights. Most security analysts, media brokers, and media executives would have estimated WPC’s intrinsic business value at $400 to $500 million just as we did. And its $100 million stock market valuation was published daily for all to see. Our advantage, rather, was attitude: we had learned from Ben Graham that the key to successful investing was the purchase of shares in good businesses when market prices were at a large discount from underlying business values.
另一方面,20世纪70年代初,大多数机构投资者在决定买入或卖出的价格时,认为业务价值只有微乎其微的相关性。如今这似乎令人难以置信。然而,当时这些机构深受著名商学院学者们的影响,他们鼓吹一种新创立的理论:股票市场是完全有效的,因此,业务价值的计算——甚至思考本身——在投资活动中都无关紧要。(我们非常感激那些学者:在智力竞赛中——无论是桥牌、国际象棋还是选股——还有什么比拥有那些被教导“思考是浪费精力”的对手更有利的呢?)
原文
Most institutional investors in the early 1970s, on the other hand, regarded business value as of only minor relevance when they were deciding the prices at which they would buy or sell. This now seems hard to believe. However, these institutions were then under the spell of academics at prestigious business schools who were preaching a newly-fashioned theory: the stock market was totally efficient, and therefore calculations of business value—and even thought, itself—were of no importance in investment activities. (We are enormously indebted to those academics: what could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest—whether it be bridge, chess, or stock selection than to have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?)
在1973年和1974年,WPC作为一家企业持续表现良好,内在价值也在增长。然而,到1974年底,我们在WPC的持仓显示亏损约25%,市值为800万美元,而我们的成本是1060万美元。我们一年前认为荒谬便宜的东西,现在变得更便宜了,因为市场以其无限的智慧,将WPC的股价打压到了内在价值的20美分以下。
原文
Through 1973 and 1974, WPC continued to do fine as a business, and intrinsic value grew. Nevertheless, by yearend 1974 our WPC holding showed a loss of about 25%, with market value at $8 million against our cost of $10.6 million. What we had thought ridiculously cheap a year earlier had become a good bit cheaper as the market, in its infinite wisdom, marked WPC stock down to well below 20 cents on the dollar of intrinsic value.
你们知道这个愉快的结局。WPC的CEO凯·格雷厄姆,既有智慧又有勇气,在那样的低价位为公司回购了大量股票,同时还拥有显著提升业务价值所需的管理技能。与此同时,投资者开始认识到该业务非凡的经济性,股价逐渐接近内在价值。因此,我们经历了三重收益:公司的业务价值飙升;由于股票回购,每股业务价值增长得更快;随着折价的缩小,股价的涨幅超过了每股业务价值的涨幅。
原文
You know the happy outcome. Kay Graham, CEO of WPC, had the brains and courage to repurchase large quantities of stock for the company at those bargain prices, as well as the managerial skills necessary to dramatically increase business values. Meanwhile, investors began to recognize the exceptional economics of the business and the stock price moved closer to underlying value. Thus, we experienced a triple dip: the company’s business value soared upward, per-share business value increased considerably faster because of stock repurchases and, with a narrowing of the discount, the stock price outpaced the gain in per-share business value.
我们持有所有我们在1973年买入的WPC股票,除了根据1985年按比例赎回计划卖回给公司的那部分。赎回所得加上我们持股的年底市值,总计2.21亿美元。
原文
We hold all of the WPC shares we bought in 1973, except for those sold back to the company in 1985’s proportionate redemption. Proceeds from the redemption plus yearend market value of our holdings total $221 million.
如果我们在1973年中将1060万美元投资于当时受青睐的六家媒体公司中的任何一家,我们持股到年底的价值可能位于4000万到6000万美元之间。我们的收益将远远超过大市的涨幅,这一结果反映了媒体业务非凡的经济性。我们通过拥有WPC获得的额外约1.6亿美元收益,在很大程度上归功于凯所做的管理决策,其卓越性超过了大多数媒体公司的管理者。她令人瞩目的商业成功在很大程度上未被报道,但在伯克希尔的股东中,这不应被忽视。
原文
If we had invested our $10.6 million in any of a half-dozen media companies that were investment favorites in mid-1973, the value of our holdings at yearend would have been in the area of $40—$60 million. Our gain would have far exceeded the gain in the general market, an outcome reflecting the exceptional economics of the media business. The extra $160 million or so we gained through ownership of WPC came, in very large part, from the superior nature of the managerial decisions made by Kay as compared to those made by managers of most media companies. Her stunning business success has in large part gone unreported but among Berkshire shareholders it should not go unappreciated.
我们在下一节描述的Capital Cities收购,要求我于1986年初离开WPC董事会。但我们打算无限期持有FCC规定允许我们持有的任何WPC股票。我们预期WPC的业务价值将以合理的速度增长,并且我们知道管理层既有能力又关注股东利益。然而,市场目前对该公司的估值超过18亿美元,因此其价值从这一水平继续增长的速度,绝无可能接近公司估值仅为1亿美元时的速度。由于我们其他持股的市场价格也被推高,我们在整个投资组合中面临着同样大幅降低的潜力。
原文
Our Capital Cities purchase, described in the next section, required me to leave the WPC Board early in 1986. But we intend to hold indefinitely whatever WPC stock FCC rules allow us to. We expect WPC’s business values to grow at a reasonable rate, and we know that management is both able and shareholder-oriented. However, the market now values the company at over $1.8 billion, and there is no way that the value can progress from that level at a rate anywhere close to the rate possible when the company’s valuation was only $100 million. Because market prices have also been bid up for our other holdings, we face the same vastly-reduced potential throughout our portfolio.
你们会注意到,我们在年底持有了相当数量的Beatrice Companies股票。这是一个短期的套利持仓——本质上是一个资金的“停车场”(尽管并非完全安全,因为交易有时会失败并造成重大损失)。当我们拥有多于投资创意的资金时,我们有时会进入套利领域,但仅限于参与已宣布的并购和出售。如果目前用于这些短期目的的资金能找到一个长期归宿,我们会高兴得多。但就目前而言,前景黯淡。
原文
You will notice that we had a significant holding in Beatrice Companies at yearend. This is a short-term arbitrage holding—in effect, a parking place for money (though not a totally safe one, since deals sometimes fall through and create substantial losses). We sometimes enter the arbitrage field when we have more money than ideas, but only to participate in announced mergers and sales. We would be a lot happier if the funds currently employed on this short-term basis found a long-term home. At the moment, however, prospects are bleak.
年底,我们的保险子公司持有约4亿美元的免税债券,其中按摊销成本计算的1.94亿美元是华盛顿公共电力供应系统(“WPPSS”)第1、2、3期项目的债券。去年我已经全面讨论过这个头寸,并解释了为什么我们在事后很久才会披露进一步的买入或卖出(遵循我们对待股票的政策)。年底我们在WPPSS债券上的未实现收益为6200万美元,其中约三分之一来自于债券市场的普遍上涨,其余部分则源于投资者对WPPSS 1、2、3期债券看法更为积极。我们持有的WPPSS债券每年的免税收入约为3000万美元。
原文
At yearend our insurance subsidiaries had about $400 million in tax-exempt bonds, of which $194 million at amortized cost were issues of Washington Public Power Supply System (“WPPSS”) Projects 1, 2, and 3. 1 discussed this position fully last year, and explained why we would not disclose further purchases or sales until well after the fact (adhering to the policy we follow on stocks). Our unrealized gain on the WPPSS bonds at yearend was $62 million, perhaps one-third arising from the upward movement of bonds generally, and the remainder from a more positive investor view toward WPPSS 1, 2, and 3s. Annual tax-exempt income from our WPPSS issues is about $30 million.
Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.
就在年底之后,伯克希尔以每股172.50美元的价格购买了300万股Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.(“Cap Cities”)的股票,这个价格是1985年3月初我们做出承诺时该股票的市场价格。多年来,我对Cap Cities的管理层评价一直公开有据:我认为它是全国所有上市公司中最好的。而且汤姆·墨菲和丹·伯克不仅是伟大的管理者,他们正是那种你希望女儿嫁给的男人。能与他们合作是一种荣幸——也非常有趣,任何认识他们的人都明白这一点。
原文
Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.
Right after yearend, Berkshire purchased 3 million shares of Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. (“Cap Cities”) at $172.50 per share, the market price of such shares at the time the commitment was made early in March, 1985. I’ve been on record for many years about the management of Cap Cities: I think it is the best of any publicly-owned company in the country. And Tom Murphy and Dan Burke are not only great managers, they are precisely the sort of fellows that you would want your daughter to marry. It is a privilege to be associated with them—and also a lot of fun, as any of you who know them will understand.
我们购买股票帮助Cap Cities为耗资35亿美元收购American Broadcasting Companies提供了资金。对Cap Cities而言,ABC是一项重大举措,其未来几年的经济效益可能不会令人兴奋。这一点完全不会困扰我们;我们可以非常有耐心。(无论才华或努力多么伟大,有些事情就是需要时间:你不可能通过让九名妇女怀孕来在一个月内生出孩子。)
原文
Our purchase of stock helped Cap Cities finance the $3.5 billion acquisition of American Broadcasting Companies. For Cap Cities, ABC is a major undertaking whose economics are likely to be unexciting over the next few years. This bothers us not an iota; we can be very patient. (No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: you can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.)
作为我们信心的证明,我们签订了一份不同寻常的协议:在相当长的一段时间内,汤姆作为CEO(如果是丹,则由他作为CEO),将为我们持有的股票投票。这项安排是查理和我提议的,而非汤姆。我们还在出售股份方面以各种方式限制了自己。这些限制的目的是确保我们的持股不会在未经管理层批准的情况下出售给任何大股东(或意图成为大股东的人),这与我们几年前在GEICO和华盛顿邮报采取的安排类似。
原文
As evidence of our confidence, we have executed an unusual agreement: for an extended period Tom, as CEO (or Dan, should he be CEO) votes our stock. This arrangement was initiated by Charlie and me, not by Tom. We also have restricted ourselves in various ways regarding sale of our shares. The object of these restrictions is to make sure that our block does not get sold to anyone who is a large holder (or intends to become a large holder) without the approval of management, an arrangement similar to ones we initiated some years ago at GEICO and Washington Post.
由于大额持股常常能获得溢价,有些人可能认为我们通过设立此类限制损害了伯克希尔的财务利益。我们的观点恰恰相反。我们认为,这些安排提升了这些业务的长期经济前景——从而也提升了我们作为所有者的前景。有了这些安排,我们结盟的一流管理者可以将全部精力集中在经营业务和为所有者最大化长期价值上。这当然比让那些管理者被“旋转门资本家”分散注意力要好得多,那些人希望将公司“置于游戏中”。(当然,有些管理者将自己的利益置于公司及其所有者之上,他们理应被整顿——但在进行投资时,我们努力避开这类人。)
原文
Since large blocks frequently command premium prices, some might think we have injured Berkshire financially by creating such restrictions. Our view is just the opposite. We feel the long-term economic prospects for these businesses—and, thus, for ourselves as owners—are enhanced by the arrangements. With them in place, the first-class managers with whom we have aligned ourselves can focus their efforts entirely upon running the businesses and maximizing long-term values for owners. Certainly this is much better than having those managers distracted by “revolving-door capitalists” hoping to put the company “in play”. (Of course, some managers place their own interests above those of the company and its owners and deserve to be shaken up—but, in making investments, we try to steer clear of this type.)
今天,公司的不稳定性是投票权广泛分散的必然结果。任何时候都可能出现一个大股东,通常说着安抚性的漂亮话,但常常心怀不轨。通过我们经常那样限制我们的持股,我们旨在在可能缺乏稳定的地方促进稳定。那种确定性,加上好的管理者和好的业务,为丰厚的财务收益提供了极好的土壤。这就是我们安排的经济理由。
原文
Today, corporate instability is an inevitable consequence of widely-diffused ownership of voting stock. At any time a major holder can surface, usually mouthing reassuring rhetoric but frequently harboring uncivil intentions. By circumscribing our blocks of stock as we often do, we intend to promote stability where it otherwise might be lacking. That kind of certainty, combined with a good manager and a good business, provides excellent soil for a rich financial harvest. That’s the economic case for our arrangements.
人情方面同样重要。我们不想让我们喜欢和敬佩的经理人——他们已经欢迎我们进行重大的财务投入——因为担心我们庞大的持股可能带来意外而失眠。我已告诉他们不会有意外,而通过这些协议,伯克希尔兑现了我的承诺。这个承诺也意味着经理人有一个公司层面的承诺,因此即使我个人对伯克希尔事务的参与提前终止(我将其定义为任何小于三位数的年龄),他们也无需担忧。
原文
The human side is just as important. We don’t want managers we like and admire—and who have welcomed a major financial commitment by us—to ever lose any sleep wondering whether surprises might occur because of our large ownership. I have told them there will be no surprises, and these agreements put Berkshire’s signature where my mouth is. That signature also means the managers have a corporate commitment and therefore need not worry if my personal participation in Berkshire’s affairs ends prematurely (a term I define as any age short of three digits).
我们对Cap Cities的购买价格并不便宜,这反映了近年来对媒体股票和媒体资产(在某些资产收购中,已近乎狂热)所形成的巨大热情。这不是寻找廉价货的领域。然而,我们对Cap Cities的投资使我们与一个非凡的资产和人才组合结盟——并且我们喜欢能够大规模参与的机会。
原文
Our Cap Cities purchase was made at a full price, reflecting the very considerable enthusiasm for both media stocks and media properties that has developed in recent years (and that, in the case of some property purchases, has approached a mania). it’s no field for bargains. However, our Cap Cities investment allies us with an exceptional combination of properties and people—and we like the opportunity to participate in size.
当然,你们有些人可能会想,既然你们的主席,在他典型的一次才智爆发中,于1978-80年间以每股43美元卖掉了伯克希尔持有的同一家公司股票,为什么我们现在又要以每股172.50美元买入Cap Cities?为了预见到你们的问题,我在1985年花了很多时间准备一个能自圆其说的巧妙答案。
原文
Of course, some of you probably wonder why we are now buying Cap Cities at $172.50 per share given that your Chairman, in a characteristic burst of brilliance, sold Berkshire’s holdings in the same company at $43 per share in 1978-80. Anticipating your question, I spent much of 1985 working on a snappy answer that would reconcile these acts.
还请再给点时间。
原文
A little more time, please.
收购斯科特·费策尔公司
就在年底之后,我们以约3.2亿美元收购了位于克利夫兰的斯科特·费策尔公司(“Scott Fetzer”)(此外,约9000万美元的原有斯科特·费策尔债务仍然存在)。在本报告的下一节,我描述了我们希望为伯克希尔收购的企业类型。斯科特·费策尔是一个典型——易于理解、规模大、管理良好、盈利能力强。
原文
Acquisition of Scott & Fetzer
Right after yearend we acquired The Scott & Fetzer Company (“Scott Fetzer”) of Cleveland for about $320 million. (In addition, about $90 million of pre-existing Scott Fetzer debt remains in place.) In the next section of this report I describe the sort of businesses that we wish to buy for Berkshire. Scott Fetzer is a prototype—understandable, large, well-managed, a good earner.
该公司年销售额约为7亿美元,源自17项业务,其中许多是其领域的领导者。大多数业务在投入资本上的回报率良好至卓越。一些著名的产品包括Kirby家居清洁系统、Campbell Hausfeld空气压缩机和Wayne燃烧器及水泵。
原文
The company has sales of about $700 million derived from 17 businesses, many leaders in their fields. Return on invested capital is good to excellent for most of these businesses. Some well-known products are Kirby home-care systems, Campbell Hausfeld air compressors, and Wayne burners and water pumps.
World Book, Inc.——约占斯科特·费策尔销售额的40%和利润的略高比例——是该公司最大的业务部门。它也是其行业内遥遥领先的领导者,每年销售的精装百科全书套数是最接近竞争对手的两倍多。事实上,它在美国销售的精装百科全书套数比后四名竞争对手的总和还要多。
原文
World Book, Inc.—accounting for about 40% of Scott Fetzer’s sales and a bit more of its income—is by far the company’s largest operation. It also is by far the leader in its industry, selling more than twice as many encyclopedia sets annually as its nearest competitor. In fact, it sells more sets in the U.S. than its four biggest competitors combined.
查理和我在World Book的运营上有着特殊的兴趣,因为我们将其百科全书视为特别的产品。25年来我一直是它的粉丝(和用户),现在我的孙子们也像我的孩子们当年一样查阅这套书。World Book被教师、图书馆员和消费者购买指南评为最有用的百科全书。然而,它的售价却低于所有主要竞争对手。World Book, Inc.的另一产品Childcraft也提供了类似的价值。World Book, Inc.这种卓越产品与适中价格的组合,使得我们愿意为斯科特·费策尔支付所要求的价格,尽管许多直销行业的公司业绩下滑。
原文
Charlie and I have a particular interest in the World Book operation because we regard its encyclopedia as something special. I’ve been a fan (and user) for 25 years, and now have grandchildren consulting the sets just as my children did. World Book is regularly rated the most useful encyclopedia by teachers, librarians and consumer buying guides. Yet it sells for less than any of its major competitors. Childcraft, another World Book, Inc. product, offers similar value. This combination of exceptional products and modest prices at World Book, Inc. helped make us willing to pay the price demanded for Scott Fetzer, despite declining results for many companies in the direct-selling industry.
斯科特·费策尔的另一个吸引人之处是其CEO拉尔夫·谢伊,他已任职九年。拉尔夫接手时,公司有31项业务,这是20世纪60年代收购狂潮的结果。他剥离了许多不合时宜或盈利潜力有限的业务,但他对原有大杂烩进行合理化改革的专注并未强烈到让他在1978年World Book有机会被收购时错过机会。拉尔夫的经营和资本配置记录堪称卓越,我们很高兴能与他合作。
原文
An equal attraction at Scott Fetzer is Ralph Schey, its CEO for nine years. When Ralph took charge, the company had 31 businesses, the result of an acquisition spree in the 1960s. He disposed of many that did not fit or had limited profit potential, but his focus on rationalizing the original potpourri was not so intense that he passed by World Book when it became available for purchase in 1978. Ralph’s operating and capital-allocation record is superb, and we are delighted to be associated with him.
斯科特·费策尔收购的历史很有趣,在我们介入之前经历了一些曲折。该公司自1984年初就已公开宣布待售。一家大型投资银行花了数月时间接触数十家潜在买家,引起了其中几家的兴趣。最后,在1985年中,一项以员工持股计划(ESOP)大力参与为特点的出售计划获得了股东批准。然而,随着交易难以完成,该计划被放弃。
原文
The history of the Scott Fetzer acquisition is interesting, marked by some zigs and zags before we became involved. The company had been an announced candidate for purchase since early 1984. A major investment banking firm spent many months canvassing scores of prospects, evoking interest from several. Finally, in mid-1985 a plan of sale, featuring heavy participation by an ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan), was approved by shareholders. However, as difficulty in closing followed, the plan was scuttled.
我通过报纸关注着这家公司的传奇经历。10月10日,在ESOP交易失败后很久,我给拉尔夫写了一封简短信函,此前我并不认识他。我说我们欣赏该公司的记录,并询问他是否愿意谈谈。查理和我在10月22日与拉尔夫在芝加哥共进晚餐,并于随后一周签署了收购合同。
原文
I had followed this corporate odyssey through the newspapers. On October 10, well after the ESOP deal had fallen through, I wrote a short letter to Ralph, whom I did not know. I said we admired the company’s record and asked if he might like to talk. Charlie and I met Ralph for dinner in Chicago on October 22 and signed an acquisition contract the following week.
斯科特·费策尔的收购,加上我们保险业务的大幅增长,应能使1986年的收入超过20亿美元,比1985年翻一番以上。
原文
The Scott Fetzer acquisition, plus major growth in our insurance business, should push revenues above $2 billion in 1986, more than double those of 1985.
其他事项
斯科特·费策尔的收购说明了我们有些随意的收购方式。我们没有任何总体战略,没有公司规划人员向我们提供关于社会经济趋势的见解,也没有员工去调查发起人和中介机构提出的众多想法。相反,我们只是希望有某种合理的事情出现——当它出现时,我们就采取行动。
原文
Miscellaneous
The Scott Fetzer purchase illustrates our somewhat haphazard approach to acquisitions. We have no master strategy, no corporate planners delivering us insights about socioeconomic trends, and no staff to investigate a multitude of ideas presented by promoters and intermediaries. Instead, we simply hope that something sensible comes along—and, when it does, we act.
为了帮助命运之手,我们再次重复我们常规的“业务收购”广告。与去年相比,唯一的变化是在第(1)条:因为我们继续希望所做的任何收购都能对伯克希尔的财务结果产生可衡量的影响,所以我们提高了最低利润要求。
原文
To give fate a helping hand, we again repeat our regular “business wanted” ad. The only change from last year’s copy is in (1): because we continue to want any acquisition we make to have a measurable impact on Berkshire’s financial results, we have raised our minimum profit requirement.
以下是我们寻找的目标:
- 大规模收购(至少1000万美元的税后利润),
- 经过验证的持续盈利能力(未来的预测对我们没什么吸引力,也不考虑“扭亏为盈”的情况),
- 在很少或没有使用债务的情况下获得良好净资产收益率的企业,
- 现有管理层到位(我们无法提供管理层),
- 业务简单(如果涉及太多技术,我们可能无法理解),
- 明确的报价(如果价格未知,我们不想浪费时间,即使是初步商讨,也免得浪费卖家的时间)。
原文
Here’s what we’re looking for:
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large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings),
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demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are “turn-around” situations),
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businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
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management in place (we can’t supply it),
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simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),
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an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).
我们不会进行敌意收购。我们保证绝对保密和非常快速的答复——通常五分钟内——关于我们是否感兴趣。我们倾向于现金收购,但当我们获得与我们给予的同等内在业务价值时,也会考虑发行股票。事实上,随着最近伯克希尔股价的上涨,涉及股票发行的交易可能相当可行。我们邀请潜在的卖家通过联系我们过去有过业务往来的人来核实我们的情况。对于合适的企业和合适的人,我们能提供一个好归宿。
原文
We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer—customarily within five minutes—as to whether we’re interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuance of stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. Indeed, following recent advances in the price of Berkshire stock, transactions involving stock issuance may be quite feasible. We invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. For the right business—and the right people—we can provide a good home.
另一方面,我们经常收到一些完全不符合我们标准的收购提案:新创企业、扭亏为盈的公司、拍卖式的出售,以及(经纪人中永远流行的)“我相信如果你们这些人彼此认识,事情总会解决的”。这些对我们毫无吸引力。
原文
On the other hand, we frequently get approached about acquisitions that don’t come close to meeting our tests: new ventures, turnarounds, auction-like sales, and the ever-popular (among brokers) “I’m-sure-something-will-work-out-if-you-people-get-to-know-each-other”. None of these attracts us in the least.
* * *
除了对如上所述的整体企业收购感兴趣外,我们也对通过协商购买大量但非控股的股份感兴趣,就像我们购买Cap Cities一样。只有当我们对企业的经济状况以及经营者的能力和诚信感到非常满意时,这类购买才会吸引我们。我们倾向于大额交易:在特殊情况下,我们可能会做一些小至5000万美元(甚至更小)的交易,但我们的偏好是承诺数倍于此的规模。
原文
* * *
Besides being interested in the purchases of entire businesses as described above, we are also interested in the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock, as in our Cap Cities purchase. Such purchases appeal to us only when we are very comfortable with both the economics of the business and the ability and integrity of the people running the operation. We prefer large transactions: in the unusual case we might do something as small as $50 million (or even smaller), but our preference is for commitments many times that size.
* * *
约有96.8%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔1985年的股东指定捐款计划。通过该计划进行的捐款总额为400万美元,有1724家慈善机构受益。去年我们进行了一次民意调查,以了解你们对这个计划以及我们的股息政策的看法。(我们认识到,问题的表述方式可能会影响答案,我们尽量使措辞保持中立。)我们在附录第69页列出了投票和结果。我认为可以公平地将你们的回应总结为对现行政策的高度支持,并且群体偏好——考虑到人们倾向于维持现状——是随着资产价值的增长而增加每年的慈善承诺。
原文
* * *
About 96.8% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire’s 1985 shareholder-designated contributions program. Total contributions made through the program were $4 million, and 1,724 charities were recipients. We conducted a plebiscite last year in order to get your views about this program, as well as about our dividend policy. (Recognizing that it’s possible to influence the answers to a question by the framing of it, we attempted to make the wording of ours as neutral as possible.) We present the ballot and the results in the Appendix on page 69. I think it’s fair to summarize your response as highly supportive of present policies and your group preference—allowing for the tendency of people to vote for the status quo—to be for increasing the annual charitable commitment as our asset values build.
我们敦促新股东阅读第66和67页上关于我们的股东指定捐款计划的描述。如果您希望参与未来的计划,我们强烈建议您立即确保您的股份以实际所有人名义登记,而不是以“代名人”或街头名义。在1986年9月30日之前未如此登记的股份将没有资格参与1986年的计划。
原文
We urge new shareholders to read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 66 and 67. If you wish to participate in future programs, we strongly urge that you immediately make sure that your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in “street” name or nominee name. Shares not so registered on September 30, 1986 will be ineligible for the 1986 program.
* * *
五年前,根据1969年《银行控股公司法》的要求,我们必须处置所持的伊利诺伊州罗克福德市伊利诺伊国民银行与信托公司的股份。我们的处置方式不同寻常:我们公布了Rockford Bancorp Inc.(伊利诺伊国民银行的控股公司)股票与伯克希尔股票之间的兑换比率,然后让我们每位股东——除了我——自行决定将其伯克希尔股票全部、部分或全部不兑换为Rockford股票。我接收了剩余的Rockford股票,因此我在Rockford的持股由你们的决定决定。当时我说:“这种技巧体现了世界上最古老、最基础的公平分物制度。就像小时候一个人切蛋糕,另一个人先选一样,我试图公平地“切”开公司,但你们有权先选择你们想要的那一块。”
原文
* * *
Five years ago we were required by the Bank Holding Company Act of 1969 to dispose of our holdings in The Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois. Our method of doing so was unusual: we announced an exchange ratio between stock of Rockford Bancorp Inc. (the Illinois National’s holding company) and stock of Berkshire, and then let each of our shareholders—except me—make the decision as to whether to exchange all, part, or none of his Berkshire shares for Rockford shares. I took the Rockford stock that was left over and thus my own holding in Rockford was determined by your decisions. At the time I said, “This technique embodies the world’s oldest and most elementary system of fairly dividing an object. Just as when you were a child and one person cut the cake and the other got first choice, I have tried to cut the company fairly, but you get first choice as to which piece you want.”
去年秋天,伊利诺伊国民银行被出售。当Rockford的清算完成后,其股东将获得每股约等于银行出售时伯克希尔每股内在价值的总收益。我很高兴这五年的结果表明蛋糕的分配是相当公平的。去年我为我们年会做了宣传,你们接受了邀请。我们超过3000名注册股东中的250多人出席了会议。与会者的表现与往年一样,提出了你们对一位聪明且感兴趣的所有者所期望的问题。你们可以参加很多年会,但很少能遇到像我们这样的群体。(莱斯特·马多克斯在担任佐治亚州州长时,因该州糟糕的监狱系统受到批评。“解决办法很简单,”他说,“我们只需要更好阶层的囚犯。”提升年会品质也是同样的道理。)
原文
Last fall Illinois National was sold. When Rockford’s liquidation is completed, its shareholders will have received per-share proceeds about equal to Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value at the time of the bank’s sale. I’m pleased that this five-year result indicates that the division of the cake was reasonably equitable. Last year I put in a plug for our annual meeting, and you took me up on the invitation. Over 250 of our more than 3,000 registered shareholders showed up. Those attending behaved just as those present in previous years, asking the sort of questions you would expect from intelligent and interested owners. You can attend a great many annual meetings without running into a crowd like ours. (Lester Maddox, when Governor of Georgia, was criticized regarding the state’s abysmal prison system. “The solution”, he said, “is simple. All we need is a better class of prisoners.” Upgrading annual meetings works the same way.)
我希望你们能参加今年的年会,将于5月20日在奥马哈举行。只有一个变化:在对另一种软饮料忠诚了48年之后,您的主席以前所未有的行为灵活性表现,改饮新的樱桃味可乐。从今以后,它将是伯克希尔·哈撒韦年会的指定饮品。
原文
I hope you come to this year’s meeting, which will be held on May 20 in Omaha. There will be only one change: after 48 years of allegiance to another soft drink, your Chairman, in an unprecedented display of behavioral flexibility, has converted to the new Cherry Coke. Henceforth, it will be the Official Drink of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.
别忘了带上钱:B夫人保证,如果你们在会后去内布拉斯加家具城拜访她,那里会有大量便宜货。
原文
And bring money: Mrs. B promises to have bargains galore if you will pay her a visit at The Nebraska Furniture Mart after the meeting.
1986年3月4日
沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席
原文
March 4, 1986
Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board