Table of contents
Open Table of contents
- 1991年致股东信
- 第一部分/第二部分
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- 致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
- To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
- 第二份工作
- A Second Job
- 报告盈利的来源
- Sources of Reported Earnings
- ”透视盈利”
- “Look-Through” Earnings
- 媒体经济的变化与一些估值数学
- A Change in Media Economics and Some Valuation Math
- 糖果店里的二十年
- Twenty Years in a Candy Store
- H.H. Brown
- H. H. Brown
- 保险业务
- Insurance Operations
- 杂项
- Miscellaneous
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- 第一部分/第二部分
1991年致股东信
第一部分/第二部分
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
1991年,我们的净资产增加了21亿美元,增幅为39.6%。在过去27年里(即自现任管理层接手以来),我们的每股账面价值从19美元增长至6,437美元,年复合增长率为23.7%。
原文
Title: 1991 Letter
Part 1/2
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
Our gain in net worth during 1991 was $2.1 billion, or 39.6%. Over the last 27 years (that is, since present management took over) our per-share book value has grown from $19 to $6,437, or at a rate of 23.7% compounded annually.
我们目前的股本规模——总计达74亿美元——决定了我们无法维持过去那样的增长率,甚至无法接近这一水平。随着伯克希尔的不断壮大,能够对公司业绩产生重大影响的机会范围正在持续缩小。当我们只有2000万美元资本时,一个能产生100万美元利润的创意或业务,就能为当年的回报率贡献5个百分点。如今,我们需要一个能创造3.7亿美元利润(即贡献超过5.5亿美元的税前利润)的创意,才能取得同样的效果。而赚取100万美元的方法,远比赚取3.7亿美元的方法多得多。
原文
The size of our equity capital—which now totals $7.4 billion—makes it certain that we cannot maintain our past rate of gain or, for that matter, come close to doing so. As Berkshire grows, the universe of opportunities that can significantly influence the company’s performance constantly shrinks. When we were working with capital of $20 million, an idea or business producing $1 million of profit added five percentage points to our return for the year. Now we need a $370 million idea (i.e., one contributing over $550 million of pre-tax profit) to achieve the same result. And there are many more ways to make $1 million than to make $370 million.
查理·芒格,伯克希尔的副董事长,和我设定了一个目标:实现伯克希尔内在价值年均增长15%。如果我们账面价值的增长要跟上15%的步伐,未来十年我们必须赚取220亿美元。祝我们好运——我们确实需要好运。
原文
Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman, and I have set a goal of attaining a 15% average annual increase in Berkshire’s intrinsic value. If our growth in book value is to keep up with a 15% pace, we must earn $22 billion during the next decade. Wish us luck—we’ll need it.
1991年账面价值的超常增长源于一个不太可能重演的现象:可口可乐和吉列公司的市盈率大幅上升。这两只股票为我们去年21亿美元的净资产增长贡献了近16亿美元。三年前我们重仓买入可口可乐时,伯克希尔的净资产为34亿美元;而现在仅我们持有的可口可乐股票价值就超过了这个数字。
原文
Our outsized gain in book value in 1991 resulted from a phenomenon not apt to be repeated: a dramatic rise in the price-earnings ratios of Coca-Cola and Gillette. These two stocks accounted for nearly $1.6 billion of our $2.1 billion growth in net worth last year. When we loaded up on Coke three years ago, Berkshire’s net worth was $3.4 billion; now our Coke stock alone is worth more than that.
可口可乐和吉列公司是世界上最好的两家公司,我们预计它们的盈利在未来几年将以可观的速率增长。随着时间的推移,我们持有的这些股票的价值也应大致同步增长。然而去年,这两家公司的估值增长速度远快于其盈利增长速度。实际上,我们获得了双重收益:一部分来自优异的盈利增长,更多部分则来自市场对这些股票的重估。我们认为这种重估是合理的。但这不可能每年都重演:未来我们只能满足于单一收益了。
原文
Coca-Cola and Gillette are two of the best companies in the world and we expect their earnings to grow at hefty rates in the years ahead. Over time, also, the value of our holdings in these stocks should grow in rough proportion. Last year, however, the valuations of these two companies rose far faster than their earnings. In effect, we got a double-dip benefit, delivered partly by the excellent earnings growth and even more so by the market’s reappraisal of these stocks. We believe this reappraisal was warranted. But it can’t recur annually: We’ll have to settle for a single dip in the future.
第二份工作
1989年,当我——一个每天快乐地喝五罐樱桃可乐的人——宣布我们购买了价值10亿美元的可口可乐股票时,我形容这个举动是”把钱放在我嘴说的地方”的一个相当极端的例子。去年8月18日,当我被选为所罗门公司的临时董事长时,情况则完全不同:我把我的嘴放在了我们的钱所在的地方。
原文
A Second Job
In 1989 when I—a happy consumer of five cans of Cherry Coke daily—announced our purchase of $1 billion worth of Coca-Cola stock, I described the move as a rather extreme example of putting our money where my mouth was. On August 18 of last year, when I was elected Interim Chairman of Salomon Inc, it was a different story: I put my mouth where our money was.
你们都读到了导致我被任命的事件。接受这份工作的决定隐含着一个重要信息:伯克希尔的运营经理们如此出色,以至于我知道我可以大幅减少在公司花费的时间,同时仍然确信公司的经济进展不会受到丝毫影响。布鲁姆金家族、弗里德曼家族、迈克·戈德堡、赫尔德曼家族、查克·哈金斯、斯坦·利普西、拉尔夫·谢伊和弗兰克·鲁尼(H.H. Brown公司的CEO,我们最新的收购,我稍后会描述)都是各自业务领域的大师,不需要我的帮助。我的工作仅仅是善待他们,并合理配置他们产生的资本。这两项职责都不会因为我在所罗门的工作而受到影响。
原文
You’ve all read of the events that led to my appointment. My decision to take the job carried with it an implicit but important message: Berkshire’s operating managers are so outstanding that I knew I could materially reduce the time I was spending at the company and yet remain confident that its economic progress would not skip a beat. The Blumkins, the Friedman family, Mike Goldberg, the Heldmans, Chuck Huggins, Stan Lipsey, Ralph Schey and Frank Rooney (CEO of H.H. Brown, our latest acquisition, which I will describe later) are all masters of their operations and need no help from me. My job is merely to treat them right and to allocate the capital they generate. Neither function is impeded by my work at Salomon.
查理和我在我们运营单元成功中所扮演的角色,可以用一个关于前迈阿密大学四分卫乔治·米拉和他的教练安迪·古斯塔夫森的故事来说明。在对阵佛罗里达大学的比赛中,靠近对方球门线时,米拉后撤准备传球。他发现了一个无人防守的接球手,但发现自己的右肩被佛罗里达大学的线卫牢牢抓住。惯用右手的米拉于是将球换到另一只手上,投出了他生命中唯一一次左手传球——达阵得分。当人群沸腾时,古斯塔夫森冷静地转向一位记者宣布:“这才叫执教。”
原文
The role that Charlie and I play in the success of our operating units can be illustrated by a story about George Mira, the one-time quarterback of the University of Miami, and his coach, Andy Gustafson. Playing Florida and near its goal line, Mira dropped back to pass. He spotted an open receiver but found his right shoulder in the unshakable grasp of a Florida linebacker. The right-handed Mira thereupon switched the ball to his other hand and threw the only left-handed pass of his life—for a touchdown. As the crowd erupted, Gustafson calmly turned to a reporter and declared: “Now that’s what I call coaching.”
鉴于我们在运营部门拥有这样一批管理明星,即使查理或我时不时离开,伯克希尔的业绩也不会受到影响。然而,你应该注意我所罗门头衔中的”临时”二字。伯克希尔是我的初恋,而且永不褪色:去年在哈佛商学院,一位学生问我计划何时退休,我回答说:“大约在我死后五到十年。”
原文
Given the managerial stars we have at our operating units, Berkshire’s performance is not affected if Charlie or I slip away from time to time. You should note, however, the “interim” in my Salomon title. Berkshire is my first love and one that will never fade: At the Harvard Business School last year, a student asked me when I planned to retire and I replied, “About five to ten years after I die.”
报告盈利的来源
下表显示了伯克希尔报告盈利的主要来源。在此列示中,商誉摊销和其他重大购买价格会计调整并未计入它们所适用的特定业务,而是汇总后单独列示。这种处理方法使你可以看到,如果我们没有购买这些业务,它们本应报告的盈利情况。我在过去的报告中解释过,为什么我们认为这种列报形式比使用公认会计原则(GAAP)的方式对投资者和管理者更有用——GAAP要求逐项业务进行购买价格调整。当然,表中显示的净利润总额与我们经审计的财务报表中的GAAP总额完全相同。
原文
Sources of Reported Earnings
The table below shows the major sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. In this presentation, amortization of Goodwill and other major purchase-price accounting adjustments are not charged against the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. I’ve explained in past reports why this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-price adjustments to be made on a business-by-business basis. The total net earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.
关于这些业务的大量额外信息见第33-47页,你也可以在那里找到按GAAP基础报告的分部盈利情况。不过,在本次信中,我们不会像过去那样逐一讨论每个非保险业务。我们的业务数量已经增长——并将继续增长——因此,现在采取轮换报道的方式是合理的,每年详细讨论一两个业务。
原文
A large amount of additional information about these businesses is given on pages 33-47, where you also will find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. However, we will not in this letter discuss each of our non-insurance operations, as we have in the past. Our businesses have grown in number—and will continue to grow—so it now makes sense to rotate coverage, discussing one or two in detail each year.
| (千美元省略) | |||||||
| 税前盈利 | 伯克希尔应占净利润(税后及少数股东权益后) | ||||||
| 1991年 | 1990年 | 1991年 | 1990年 | ||||
| 营业盈利: | |||||||
| 保险集团: | |||||||
| 承保业务 | $(119,593) | $ (26,647) | $ (77,229) | $ (14,936) | |||
| 净投资收益 | 331,846 | 327,047 | 285,173 | 282,613 | |||
| H.H. Brown(1991年7月1日收购) | 13,616 | --- | 8,611 | --- | |||
| 布法罗新闻报 | 37,113 | 43,954 | 21,841 | 25,981 | |||
| Fechheimer | 12,947 | 12,450 | 6,843 | 6,605 | |||
| Kirby | 35,726 | 27,445 | 22,555 | 17,613 | |||
| 内布拉斯加家具城 | 14,384 | 17,248 | 6,993 | 8,485 | |||
| Scott Fetzer制造集团 | 26,123 | 30,378 | 15,901 | 18,458 | |||
| See’s糖果 | 42,390 | 39,580 | 25,575 | 23,892 | |||
| Wesco——保险以外 | 12,230 | 12,441 | 8,777 | 9,676 | |||
| 世界图书 | 22,483 | 31,896 | 15,487 | 20,420 | |||
| 商誉摊销 | (4,113) | (3,476) | (4,098) | (3,461) | |||
| 其他购买价格会计调整 | (6,021) | (5,951) | (7,019) | (6,856) | |||
| 利息支出* | (89,250) | (76,374) | (57,165) | (49,726) | |||
| 股东指定捐赠 | (6,772) | (5,824) | (4,388) | (3,801) | |||
| 其他 | 77,399 | 58,310 | 47,896 | 35,782 | |||
| 营业盈利合计 | 400,508 | 482,477 | 315,753 | 370,745 | |||
| 证券出售 | 192,478 | 33,989 | 124,155 | 23,348 | |||
| 所有实体总盈利 | $ 592,986 | $ 516,466 | $ 439,908 | $ 394,093 |
* 不包括Scott Fetzer金融集团和Mutual Savings & Loan的利息支出。
原文
| (000s omitted) | |||||||
| Pre-Tax Earnings | Berkshire’s Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and minority interests) | ||||||
| 1991 | 1990 | 1991 | 1990 | ||||
| Operating Earnings: | |||||||
| Insurance Group: | |||||||
| Underwriting | $(119,593) | $ (26,647) | $ (77,229) | $ (14,936) | |||
| Net Investment Income | 331,846 | 327,047 | 285,173 | 282,613 | |||
| H. H. Brown (acquired 7/1/91) | 13,616 | --- | 8,611 | --- | |||
| Buffalo News | 37,113 | 43,954 | 21,841 | 25,981 | |||
| Fechheimer | 12,947 | 12,450 | 6,843 | 6,605 | |||
| Kirby | 35,726 | 27,445 | 22,555 | 17,613 | |||
| Nebraska Furniture Mart | 14,384 | 17,248 | 6,993 | 8,485 | |||
| Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group | 26,123 | 30,378 | 15,901 | 18,458 | |||
| See’s Candies | 42,390 | 39,580 | 25,575 | 23,892 | |||
| Wesco — other than Insurance | 12,230 | 12,441 | 8,777 | 9,676 | |||
| World Book | 22,483 | 31,896 | 15,487 | 20,420 | |||
| Amortization of Goodwill | (4,113) | (3,476) | (4,098) | (3,461) | |||
| Other Purchase-Price Accounting Charges | (6,021) | (5,951) | (7,019) | (6,856) | |||
| Interest Expense* | (89,250) | (76,374) | (57,165) | (49,726) | |||
| Shareholder-Designated Contributions | (6,772) | (5,824) | (4,388) | (3,801) | |||
| Other | 77,399 | 58,310 | 47,896 | 35,782 | |||
| Operating Earnings | 400,508 | 482,477 | 315,753 | 370,745 | |||
| Sales of Securities | 192,478 | 33,989 | 124,155 | 23,348 | |||
| Total Earnings — All Entities | $ 592,986 | $ 516,466 | $ 439,908 | $ 394,093 |
* Excludes interest expense of Scott Fetzer Financial Group and Mutual Savings & Loan.
”透视盈利”
我们以前讨论过透视盈利,它包括:(1) 上一节报告中的营业盈利,加上;(2) 主要被投资公司中按照GAAP会计未反映在我们利润中的留存营业盈利,减去;(3) 如果这些被投资公司的留存盈利分配给伯克希尔,本应由伯克希尔缴纳的税款备抵。
原文
“Look-Through” Earnings
We’ve previously discussed look-through earnings, which consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us.
我告诉过你们,从长期来看,如果我们的内在商业价值要以大约15%的年增长率增长,透视盈利也必须以大约15%的年增长率增长。事实上,自1965年现任管理层接手以来,我们的透视盈利几乎与账面价值23%的增长率完全一致。
原文
I’ve told you that over time look-through earnings must increase at about 15% annually if our intrinsic business value is to grow at that rate. Indeed, since present management took over in 1965, our look-through earnings have grown at almost the identical 23% rate of gain recorded for book value.
然而去年,我们的透视盈利完全没有增长,反而下降了14%。在某种程度上,这种下降是由我在去年报告中讨论过、并警告过你们会对透视盈利产生负面影响的两股力量造成的。
原文
Last year, however, our look-through earnings did not grow at all but rather declined by 14%. To an extent, the decline was precipitated by two forces that I discussed in last year’s report and that I warned you would have a negative effect on look-through earnings.
首先,我告诉过你们,我们的媒体业务盈利——无论是直接的还是透视的——“肯定会下降”,事实也确实如此。第二股力量在4月1日开始发挥作用,当时我们持有的吉列优先股被赎回,迫使我们将其转换为普通股。1990年我们优先股的税后盈利约为4500万美元,这个数字略高于1991年三个月的优先股股息加上九个月普通股透视盈利的总和。
原文
First, I told you that our media earnings—both direct and look-through—were “sure to decline” and they in fact did. The second force came into play on April 1, when the call of our Gillette preferred stock required us to convert it into common. The after-tax earnings in 1990 from our preferred had been about $45 million, an amount somewhat higher than the combination in 1991 of three months of dividends on our preferred plus nine months of look-through earnings on the common.
另外两个我未预见到的结果也在1991年损害了透视盈利。首先,我们在富国银行的权益收益为零(我们从该公司收到的股息被负数留存收益抵消了)。去年我说富国银行出现这种结果是”一种低概率可能性——而非可能性”。其次,我们的保险利润显著降低——尽管仍然相当出色。
原文
Two other outcomes that I did not foresee also hurt look-through earnings in 1991. First, we had a break-even result from our interest in Wells Fargo (dividends we received from the company were offset by negative retained earnings). Last year I said that such a result at Wells was “a low-level possibility—not a likelihood.” Second, we recorded significantly lower—though still excellent—insurance profits.
下表向你们展示了我们如何计算透视盈利,不过我提醒你们,这些数字必然非常粗略。(这些被投资公司支付给我们的股息已包含在第6页详细列示的营业盈利中,主要是在”保险集团:净投资收益”项下。)
原文
The following table shows you how we calculate look-through earnings, although I warn you that the figures are necessarily very rough. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 6, mostly under “Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.”)
| 伯克希尔主要被投资公司 | 伯克希尔年底大致持股比例 | 伯克希尔应占未分配营业盈利(单位:百万美元) | |||||||
| 1991年 | 1990年 | 1991年 | 1990年 | ||||||
| 大都会/美国广播公司 | 18.1% | 17.9% | $ 61 | $ 85 | |||||
| 可口可乐公司 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 69 | 58 | |||||
| 联邦住宅贷款抵押公司 | 3.4% | (1) | 3.2% | (1) | 15 | 10 | |||
| 吉列公司 | 11.0% | --- | 23(2) | --- | |||||
| GEICO公司 | 48.2% | 46.1% | 69 | 76 | |||||
| 华盛顿邮报公司 | 14.6% | 14.6% | 10 | 18 | |||||
| 富国银行公司 | 9.6% | 9.7% | (17) | 19(3) | |||||
| 主要被投资公司未分配盈利的伯克希尔应占份额 | $230 | $266 | |||||||
| 对这些未分配被投资公司盈利的假设税负 | (30) | (35) | |||||||
| 伯克希尔报告营业盈利 | 316 | 371 | |||||||
| 伯克希尔透视盈利总额 | $516 | $602 |
(1) 扣除Wesco的少数股东权益 (2) 为伯克希尔于4月将优先股转换后的九个月期间 (3) 按当年平均持股比例计算
原文
| Berkshire’s Major Investees | Berkshire’s Approximate Ownership at Yearend | Berkshire’s Share of Undistributed Operating Earnings (in millions) | |||||||
| 1991 | 1990 | 1991 | 1990 | ||||||
| Capital Cities/ABC Inc. | 18.1% | 17.9% | $ 61 | $ 85 | |||||
| The Coca-Cola Company | 7.0% | 7.0% | 69 | 58 | |||||
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. | 3.4% | (1) | 3.2% | (1) | 15 | 10 | |||
| The Gillette Company | 11.0% | --- | 23(2) | --- | |||||
| GEICO Corp. | 48.2% | 46.1% | 69 | 76 | |||||
| The Washington Post Company | 14.6% | 14.6% | 10 | 18 | |||||
| Wells Fargo & Company | 9.6% | 9.7% | (17) | 19(3) | |||||
| Berkshire’s share of undistributed earnings of major investees | $230 | $266 | |||||||
| Hypothetical tax on these undistributed investee earnings | (30) | (35) | |||||||
| Reported operating earnings of Berkshire | 316 | 371 | |||||||
| Total look-through earnings of Berkshire | $516 | $602 |
(1) Net of minority interest at Wesco
(2) For the nine months after Berkshire converted its preferred on April
(3) Calculated on average ownership for the year
* * * * * * * * * * * *
我们还认为,投资者可以通过关注自己的透视盈利而受益。为了计算这些,他们应该确定其投资组合中持有的股票所对应的基础盈利,并将其加总。每个投资者的目标应该是创建一个投资组合(实际上就是一家”公司”),能够在未来十年左右的时间里为他或她带来尽可能高的透视盈利。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
We also believe that investors can benefit by focusing on their own look-through earnings. To calculate these, they should determine the underlying earnings attributable to the shares they hold in their portfolio and total these. The goal of each investor should be to create a portfolio (in effect, a “company”) that will deliver him or her the highest possible look-through earnings a decade or so from now.
这种方法将迫使投资者思考长期业务前景,而非短期股市前景,这种视角很可能改善投资结果。当然,从长期来看,投资决策的记分牌是市场价格。但价格将由未来盈利决定。在投资中,就像在棒球比赛中一样,要想让记分牌上出现得分,就必须关注赛场,而不是记分牌。
原文
An approach of this kind will force the investor to think about long-term business prospects rather than short-term stock market prospects, a perspective likely to improve results. It’s true, of course, that, in the long run, the scoreboard for investment decisions is market price. But prices will be determined by future earnings. In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard.
媒体经济的变化与一些估值数学
在去年的报告中,我表达了我的观点:媒体公司盈利能力的下降既反映了结构性因素,也反映了周期性因素。1991年的事件进一步证实了这一判断:随着零售模式的改变以及广告和娱乐选择的激增,曾经强大的媒体企业的经济实力持续受到侵蚀。不幸的是,在商业世界中,后视镜总是比挡风玻璃更清晰:几年前,与媒体行业相关的任何人——无论是贷款人、所有者还是金融分析师——都没有预见到这个行业将要面临的经济恶化。(但再给我几年时间,我可能就会说服自己我确实预见到了。)
原文
A Change in Media Economics and Some Valuation Math
In last year’s report, I stated my opinion that the decline in the profitability of media companies reflected secular as well as cyclical factors. The events of 1991 have fortified that case: The economic strength of once-mighty media enterprises continues to erode as retailing patterns change and advertising and entertainment choices proliferate. In the business world, unfortunately, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield: A few years back no one linked to the media business—neither lenders, owners nor financial analysts—saw the economic deterioration that was in store for the industry. (But give me a few years and I’ll probably convince myself that I did.)
事实上,报纸、电视和杂志资产在经济行为上已经开始更像企业而非特许经营权。让我们快速看一下区分这两类企业的特征,同时记住,许多业务处于某种中间地带,最好将其描述为弱特许经营权或强企业。
原文
The fact is that newspaper, television, and magazine properties have begun to resemble businesses more than franchises in their economic behavior. Let’s take a quick look at the characteristics separating these two classes of enterprise, keeping in mind, however, that many operations fall in some middle ground and can best be described as weak franchises or strong businesses.
经济特许权源于一种产品或服务:(1) 被需要或渴望;(2) 顾客认为其没有接近的替代品;(3) 不受价格管制。这三项条件的存在将体现在一个公司能够定期对其产品或服务进行积极定价,从而获得高资本回报率的能力上。此外,特许经营权可以容忍管理不善。无能的管理者可能会降低特许经营权的盈利能力,但他们无法造成致命伤害。
原文
An economic franchise arises from a product or service that: (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by its customers to have no close substitute and; (3) is not subject to price regulation. The existence of all three conditions will be demonstrated by a company’s ability to regularly price its product or service aggressively and thereby to earn high rates of return on capital. Moreover, franchises can tolerate mis-management. Inept managers may diminish a franchise’s profitability, but they cannot inflict mortal damage.
与此相反,“一家企业”只有在它是低成本运营商,或者其产品或服务供应紧张时,才能获得超额利润。供应紧张通常不会持续太久。有了优秀的管理,一家公司可能作为低成本运营商维持更长时间,但即便如此,它也不断面临竞争攻击的可能性。而且,与特许经营权不同,一家企业可能因管理不善而灭亡。
原文
In contrast, “a business” earns exceptional profits only if it is the low-cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. Tightness in supply usually does not last long. With superior management, a company may maintain its status as a low-cost operator for a much longer time, but even then unceasingly faces the possibility of competitive attack. And a business, unlike a franchise, can be killed by poor management.
直到最近,媒体资产拥有特许经营权的三个特征,因此既可以积极定价,也可以松散管理。然而现在,寻求信息和娱乐的消费者(他们的首要兴趣是后者)在何处获取这些内容方面,拥有了大大拓宽的选择。不幸的是,需求无法随这种新供应而扩张:可用的只有5亿只美国眼球和每天24小时。结果是竞争加剧,市场碎片化,媒体行业已经失去了其特许经营权的一部分——尽管远非全部——力量。
原文
Until recently, media properties possessed the three characteristics of a franchise and consequently could both price aggressively and be managed loosely. Now, however, consumers looking for information and entertainment (their primary interest being the latter) enjoy greatly broadened choices as to where to find them. Unfortunately, demand can’t expand in response to this new supply: 500 million American eyeballs and a 24-hour day are all that’s available. The result is that competition has intensified, markets have fragmented, and the media industry has lost some—though far from all—of its franchise strength.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
行业特许经营权的削弱对其价值的影响,远超对盈利的直接影响。为了理解这一现象,让我们看一些过度简化但相关的数学计算。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
The industry’s weakened franchise has an impact on its value that goes far beyond the immediate effect on earnings. For an understanding of this phenomenon, let’s look at some much over-simplified, but relevant, math.
几年前,传统智慧认为,报纸、电视或杂志资产将永远以每年约6%的速度增长盈利,并且无需动用额外资本,因为折旧费用大致与资本支出相当,而营运资金需求很小。因此,报告盈利(无形资产摊销前)也就是可自由分配的盈利,这意味着拥有一项媒体资产可以被视为拥有一份每年增长6%的永续年金。接下来,假设使用10%的贴现率来确定该盈利流的现值。那么可以计算出,为一个当前税后盈利为100万美元的资产支付高达2500万美元是合理的。(这个25倍的税后乘数相当于约16倍的税前盈利乘数。)
原文
A few years ago the conventional wisdom held that a newspaper, television or magazine property would forever increase its earnings at 6% or so annually and would do so without the employment of additional capital, for the reason that depreciation charges would roughly match capital expenditures and working capital requirements would be minor. Therefore, reported earnings (before amortization of intangibles) were also freely-distributable earnings, which meant that ownership of a media property could be construed as akin to owning a perpetual annuity set to grow at 6% a year. Say, next, that a discount rate of 10% was used to determine the present value of that earnings stream. One could then calculate that it was appropriate to pay a whopping $25 million for a property with current after-tax earnings of $1 million. (This after-tax multiplier of 25 translates to a multiplier on pre-tax earnings of about 16.)
现在改变假设,假设这100万美元代表”正常盈利能力”,盈利将围绕这个数字周期性波动。这种”围绕波动”的模式确实是大多数企业的命运,其收入流只有在所有者愿意投入更多资本(通常以留存收益的形式)时才会增长。在我们的修正假设下,以同样的10%贴现率对100万美元的盈利进行贴现,得到1000万美元的估值。因此,一个看似微小的假设变化,就将该资产的估值降低到了税后盈利的10倍(或约6.5倍的税前盈利)。
原文
Now change the assumption and posit that the $1 million represents “normal earning power” and that earnings will bob around this figure cyclically. A “bob-around” pattern is indeed the lot of most businesses, whose income stream grows only if their owners are willing to commit more capital (usually in the form of retained earnings). Under our revised assumption, $1 million of earnings, discounted by the same 10%, translates to a $10 million valuation. Thus a seemingly modest shift in assumptions reduces the property’s valuation to 10 times after-tax earnings (or about 6 1/2 times pre-tax earnings).
美元就是美元,无论它们来自媒体资产还是钢铁厂的运营。过去,买家之所以对来自媒体的一美元盈利估值远高于来自钢铁的一美元,是因为媒体资产的盈利预期会持续增长(且无需额外大量资本),而钢铁盈利显然属于围绕波动的范畴。然而现在,对媒体的预期已经转向了围绕波动模型。而且,正如我们的简化例子所示,当预期被修正时,估值必须发生剧烈变化。
原文
Dollars are dollars whether they are derived from the operation of media properties or of steel mills. What in the past caused buyers to value a dollar of earnings from media far higher than a dollar from steel was that the earnings of a media property were expected to constantly grow (without the business requiring much additional capital), whereas steel earnings clearly fell in the bob-around category. Now, however, expectations for media have moved toward the bob-around model. And, as our simplified example illustrates, valuations must change dramatically when expectations are revised.
我们在媒体领域有大量投资——既包括我们直接拥有的布法罗新闻报,也包括我们持有的华盛顿邮报公司和首都城市/ABC的股份——而这些投资的内在价值因该行业正在经历的结构性转变而大幅下降。(周期性因素也损害了我们当前的透视盈利,但这些因素不会降低内在价值。)然而,正如我们在第2-3页的业务原则中所指出的,我们管理伯克希尔的规则之一是,我们不会仅仅因为我们看到了更有利可图的资金运用方式,就出售企业——或者我们归类为永久持有的被投资公司股份。(我们确实在早些时候出售了某些其他媒体持股,但这些相对较小。)
原文
We have a significant investment in media—both through our direct ownership of Buffalo News and our shareholdings in The Washington Post Company and Capital Cities/ABC—and the intrinsic value of this investment has declined materially because of the secular transformation that the industry is experiencing. (Cyclical factors have also hurt our current look-through earnings, but these factors do not reduce intrinsic value.) However, as our Business Principles on page 2-3 note, one of the rules by which we run Berkshire is that we do not sell businesses—or investee holdings that we have classified as permanent—simply because we see ways to use the money more advantageously elsewhere. (We did sell certain other media holdings sometime back, but these were relatively small.)
我们所遭受的内在价值损失已经得到缓解,因为在斯坦·利普西的领导下,布法罗新闻报的表现远优于大多数报纸,而且首都城市和华盛顿邮报都管理得异常出色。特别是,这些公司在1980年代末期,当时媒体资产购买者经常支付非理性价格的时期,保持了观望。此外,首都城市和华盛顿邮报的债务都很小,大致被它们持有的现金所抵消。因此,其资产价值的缩水并未因杠杆效应而加剧。在公开上市的媒体公司中,我们的这两家被投资公司几乎是唯一基本没有债务的。大多数其他公司,由于它们采取的激进收购政策和盈利萎缩的综合作用,发现自己背负的债务是其当前净利润的五倍或更多。
原文
The intrinsic value losses that we have suffered have been moderated because the Buffalo News, under Stan Lipsey’s leadership, has done far better than most newspapers and because both Cap Cities and Washington Post are exceptionally well-managed. In particular, these companies stayed on the sidelines during the late 1980’s period in which purchasers of media properties regularly paid irrational prices. Also, the debt of both Cap Cities and Washington Post is small and roughly offset by cash that they hold. As a result, the shrinkage in the value of their assets has not been accentuated by the effects of leverage. Among publicly-owned media companies, our two investees are about the only ones essentially free of debt. Most of the other companies, through a combination of the aggressive acquisition policies they pursued and shrinking earnings, find themselves with debt equal to five or more times their current net income.
首都城市和华盛顿邮报强劲的资产负债表和强大的管理层,让我们对这些投资比持有任何其他媒体公司的股份感到更放心。此外,大多数媒体资产仍然具有远超美国普通企业的经济特征。但坚不可摧的特许经营权和丰裕经济学的日子已经一去不复返了。
原文
The strong balance sheets and strong managements of Cap Cities and Washington Post leave us more comfortable with these investments than we would be with holdings in any other media companies. Moreover, most media properties continue to have far better economic characteristics than those possessed by the average American business. But gone are the days of bullet-proof franchises and cornucopian economics.
糖果店里的二十年
我们刚刚跨过一个里程碑:二十年前,1972年1月3日,蓝筹印花公司(当时是伯克希尔的关联公司,后来并入伯克希尔)收购了See’s糖果店的控制权,这是一家西海岸的盒装巧克力制造商和零售商。卖方要求的标价——按我们最终获得的100%所有权计算——是4000万美元。但该公司有1000万美元的过剩现金,因此实际要价是3000万美元。查理和我当时还没有充分认识到经济特许经营权的价值,看了该公司仅有700万美元的有形净资产,就说我们最多出价2500万美元(而且我们是认真的)。幸运的是,卖方接受了我们的出价。
原文
Twenty Years in a Candy Store
We’ve just passed a milestone: Twenty years ago, on January 3, 1972, Blue Chip Stamps (then an affiliate of Berkshire and later merged into it) bought control of See’s Candy Shops, a West Coast manufacturer and retailer of boxed-chocolates. The nominal price that the sellers were asking—calculated on the 100% ownership we ultimately attained—was $40 million. But the company had $10 million of excess cash, and therefore the true offering price was $30 million. Charlie and I, not yet fully appreciative of the value of an economic franchise, looked at the company’s mere $7 million of tangible net worth and said $25 million was as high as we would go (and we meant it). Fortunately, the sellers accepted our offer.
此后,蓝筹印花的印花销售额从1972年的1.025亿美元下降到1991年的120万美元。但同期See’s的糖果销售额从2900万美元增加到1.96亿美元。此外,See’s的利润增长速度甚至超过销售增长,从1972年的税前420万美元增长到去年的4240万美元。
原文
The sales of trading stamps by Blue Chip thereafter declined from $102.5 million in 1972 to $1.2 million in 1991. But See’s candy sales in the same period increased from $29 million to $196 million. Moreover, profits at See’s grew even faster than sales, from $4.2 million pre-tax in 1972 to $42.4 million last year.
要正确评估利润的增长,必须将其与产生这种增长所需的增量资本投资进行比较。在这方面,See’s的表现令人惊叹:该公司现在仅需2500万美元的净资产即可轻松运营,这意味着我们最初700万美元的基础仅需1800万美元的留存收益来补充。与此同时,See’s在过去20年中剩余的4.1亿美元税前利润被分配给蓝筹印花/伯克希尔公司,以便这些公司(在纳税后)以最合理的方式部署。
原文
For an increase in profits to be evaluated properly, it must be compared with the incremental capital investment required to produce it. On this score, See’s has been astounding: The company now operates comfortably with only $25 million of net worth, which means that our beginning base of $7 million has had to be supplemented by only $18 million of reinvested earnings. Meanwhile, See’s remaining pre-tax profits of $410 million were distributed to Blue Chip/Berkshire during the 20 years for these companies to deploy (after payment of taxes) in whatever way made most sense.
在购买See’s时,查理和我有了一个重要见解:我们看到了该业务尚未开发的定价权。此外,我们幸运地遇到了两次好运。首先,交易没有因为我们愚蠢地坚持2500万美元的价格而告吹。其次,我们找到了当时See’s的执行副总裁查克·哈金斯,我们立即让他负责。我们在业务和个人方面与查克的合作都异常出色。举一个例子:完成收购时,我们与查克握手达成了一项薪酬安排——大约五分钟内构思出来,从未形成书面合同——至今保持不变。
原文
In our See’s purchase, Charlie and I had one important insight: We saw that the business had untapped pricing power. Otherwise, we were lucky twice over. First, the transaction was not derailed by our dumb insistence on a $25 million price. Second, we found Chuck Huggins, then See’s executive vice-president, whom we instantly put in charge. Both our business and personal experiences with Chuck have been outstanding. One example: When the purchase was made, we shook hands with Chuck on a compensation arrangement—conceived in about five minutes and never reduced to a written contract—that remains unchanged to this day.
1991年,See’s的销售额(以美元计)与1990年持平。然而,以磅数计,销量下降了4%。所有这些下滑都发生在当年最后两个月,这一期间通常会产生超过80%的年度利润。尽管销售疲软,去年的利润仍增长了7%,我们的税前利润率达到了创纪录的21.6%。
原文
In 1991, See’s sales volume, measured in dollars, matched that of 1990. In pounds, however, volume was down 4%. All of that slippage took place in the last two months of the year, a period that normally produces more than 80% of annual profits. Despite the weakness in sales, profits last year grew 7%, and our pre-tax profit margin was a record 21.6%.
See’s近80%的销售额来自加州,我们的业务显然受到经济衰退的打击,这次衰退在年底对加州造成了尤为严重的冲击。另一个负面因素是,加州在年中开始对”零食”征收7%-8%的销售税(因县而异),该税被认为适用于我们的糖果。
原文
Almost 80% of See’s sales come from California and our business clearly was hurt by the recession, which hit the state with particular force late in the year. Another negative, however, was the mid-year initiation in California of a sales tax of 7%-8% (depending on the county involved) on “snack food” that was deemed applicable to our candy.
那些是认识论细微差别研究者的股东们,将会喜欢加州对”零食”和”非零食”食品的分类:
| 应纳税的”零食”食品 | 免税的”非零食”食品 | |
| Ritz饼干 | 苏打饼干 | |
| 爆米花(已爆好) | 未爆的爆米花 | |
| 格兰诺拉能量棒 | 格兰诺拉麦片 | |
| 一块馅饼(包装好) | 整个馅饼 | |
| Milky Way巧克力棒 | Milky Way冰淇淋棒 |
原文
Shareholders who are students of epistemological shadings will enjoy California’s classifications of “snack” and “non-snack” foods:
| Taxable “Snack” Foods | Non-Taxable “Non-Snack” Foods | |
| Ritz Crackers | Soda Crackers | |
| Popped Popcorn | Unpopped Popcorn | |
| Granola Bars | Granola Cereal | |
| Slice of Pie (Wrapped) | Whole Pie | |
| Milky Way Candy Bar | Milky Way Ice Cream Bar |
你一定会问——一根融化的Milky Way冰淇淋棒的税收状况如何?在这种雌雄同体的形态下,它更像冰淇淋棒,还是像一根放在太阳下的巧克力棒?难怪反对零食法案但如今必须执行它的加州州平等委员会主席布拉德·谢尔曼说:“我来这个工作岗位时是一名税法专家。现在我发现我的选民本应该选举朱莉娅·蔡尔德。”
原文
What—you are sure to ask—is the tax status of a melted Milky Way ice cream bar? In that androgynous form, does it more resemble an ice cream bar or a candy bar that has been left in the sun? It’s no wonder that Brad Sherman, Chairman of California’s State Board of Equalization, who opposed the snack food bill but must now administer it, has said: “I came to this job as a specialist in tax law. Now I find my constituents should have elected Julia Child.”
查理和我有很多理由感谢与查克及See’s的合作。显而易见的是,我们获得了非凡的回报,并在此过程中度过了愉快时光。同样重要的是,拥有See’s教会了我们很多关于评估特许经营权的知识。由于从See’s学到的经验,我们在某些普通股上赚了大钱。
原文
Charlie and I have many reasons to be thankful for our association with Chuck and See’s. The obvious ones are that we’ve earned exceptional returns and had a good time in the process. Equally important, ownership of See’s has taught us much about the evaluation of franchises. We’ve made significant money in certain common stocks because of the lessons we learned at See’s.
H.H. Brown
1991年我们进行了一笔可观的收购——H.H. Brown公司——这家公司背后有一段有趣的历史。1927年,一位29岁的商人雷·赫弗南以1万美元的价格收购了当时位于马萨诸塞州北布鲁克菲尔德的公司,并开始了长达62年的经营生涯。(他还抽出时间从事其他爱好:90岁时他还在加入新的高尔夫俱乐部。)到赫弗南先生于1990年初退休时,H.H. Brown在美国拥有三家工厂,在加拿大拥有一家;雇佣了近2000名员工;年税前利润约为2500万美元。
原文
H. H. Brown
We made a sizable acquisition in 1991—the H. H. Brown Company—and behind this business is an interesting history. In 1927 a 29-year-old businessman named Ray Heffernan purchased the company, then located in North Brookfield, Massachusetts, for $10,000 and began a 62-year career of running it. (He also found time for other pursuits: At age 90 he was still joining new golf clubs.) By Mr. Heffernan’s retirement in early 1990 H. H. Brown had three plants in the United States and one in Canada; employed close to 2,000 people; and earned about $25 million annually before taxes.
在此期间,雷的一个女儿弗朗西斯·赫弗南嫁给了弗兰克·鲁尼,赫弗南先生在婚礼前严厉告诫弗兰克,最好打消任何为他岳父工作的念头。这是赫弗南先生为数不多的错误之一:弗兰克后来成为了Melville鞋业(现Melville公司)的CEO。在他担任老板的23年间(1964年至1986年),Melville的股权收益率平均超过20%,其股价(经拆股调整)从16美元上涨到960美元。而在弗兰克退休几年后,赫弗南先生病倒了,请他管理Brown公司。
原文
Along the way, Frances Heffernan, one of Ray’s daughters, married Frank Rooney, who was sternly advised by Mr. Heffernan before the wedding that he had better forget any ideas he might have about working for his father-in-law. That was one of Mr. Heffernan’s few mistakes: Frank went on to become CEO of Melville Shoe (now Melville Corp.). During his 23 years as boss, from 1964 through 1986, Melville’s earnings averaged more than 20% on equity and its stock (adjusted for splits) rose from $16 to $960. And a few years after Frank retired, Mr. Heffernan, who had fallen ill, asked him to run Brown.
赫弗南先生于1990年底去世后,他的家人决定出售公司——我们在这里走了运。我认识弗兰克几年了,但还不足以让他想到伯克希尔是可能的买家。他反而将出售Brown的任务交给了一家大型投资银行,这家银行也没有想到我们。但去年春天,弗兰克在佛罗里达与约翰·卢米斯打高尔夫球,他是我的一位老朋友,也是伯克希尔的股东,总是留意可能适合我们的机会。听到Brown即将出售的消息,约翰告诉弗兰克,这家公司应该正合伯克希尔的胃口,弗兰克立即给我打了电话。我立刻认为我们可以做成这笔交易,不久就完成了。
原文
After Mr. Heffernan died late in 1990, his family decided to sell the company—and here we got lucky. I had known Frank for a few years but not well enough for him to think of Berkshire as a possible buyer. He instead gave the assignment of selling Brown to a major investment banker, which failed also to think of us. But last spring Frank was playing golf in Florida with John Loomis, a long-time friend of mine as well as a Berkshire shareholder, who is always on the alert for something that might fit us. Hearing about the impending sale of Brown, John told Frank that the company should be right up Berkshire’s alley, and Frank promptly gave me a call. I thought right away that we would make a deal and before long it was done.
我对这次收购的大部分热情来自于弗兰克愿意继续担任CEO。像我们的大多数经理一样,他在经济上不需要工作,但这样做是因为他热爱这个游戏并喜欢卓越。这种类型的经理不能用通常意义上的”雇佣”来实现。我们必须做的,是提供一个音乐会大厅,让这种级别的商业艺术家愿意在此表演。
原文
Much of my enthusiasm for this purchase came from Frank’s willingness to continue as CEO. Like most of our managers, he has no financial need to work but does so because he loves the game and likes to excel. Managers of this stripe cannot be “hired” in the normal sense of the word. What we must do is provide a concert hall in which business artists of this class will wish to perform.
Brown(顺便说,与圣路易斯的Brown鞋业无关)是北美工作鞋和靴子的领先制造商,并且在销售和资产利润率方面有着历史上异常出色的表现。制鞋业是一项艰难的业务——美国每年购买的10亿双鞋中,约85%是进口的——该行业的大多数制造商都表现不佳。生产商提供的款式和尺寸范围广泛导致库存沉重;大量资金也积压在应收账款中。在这种环境下,只有像弗兰克和赫弗南先生培养起来的团队这样的杰出管理者才能蓬勃发展。
原文
Brown (which, by the way, has no connection to Brown Shoe of St. Louis) is the leading North American manufacturer of work shoes and boots, and it has a history of earning unusually fine margins on sales and assets. Shoes are a tough business—of the billion pairs purchased in the United States each year, about 85% are imported —and most manufacturers in the industry do poorly. The wide range of styles and sizes that producers offer causes inventories to be heavy; substantial capital is also tied up in receivables. In this kind of environment, only outstanding managers like Frank and the group developed by Mr. Heffernan can prosper.
H.H. Brown的一个显著特征是我遇到过的最不寻常的薪酬体系之一——但它让我感到暖心:一些关键经理的年薪为7,800美元,此外再加上公司在扣除资本占用费用后利润的指定百分比。这些经理因此真正站在所有者的立场上。相比之下,大多数经理只是说一套做一套,选择使用胡萝卜多、大棒少的薪酬体系(而且几乎总是将股权资本视为无成本的)。无论如何,Brown的安排对公司及其经理都异常有利,这并不奇怪:渴望在自己能力上大举下注的经理,通常有足够的能力可以下注。
原文
A distinguishing characteristic of H. H. Brown is one of the most unusual compensation systems I’ve encountered—but one that warms my heart: A number of key managers are paid an annual salary of $7,800, to which is added a designated percentage of the profits of the company after these are reduced by a charge for capital employed. These managers therefore truly stand in the shoes of owners. In contrast, most managers talk the talk but don’t walk the walk, choosing instead to employ compensation systems that are long on carrots but short on sticks (and that almost invariably treat equity capital as if it were cost-free). The arrangement at Brown, in any case, has served both the company and its managers exceptionally well, which should be no surprise: Managers eager to bet heavily on their abilities usually have plenty of ability to bet on.
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令人沮丧的是,尽管我们有四次重大收购,卖方都由知名投资银行代理,但在这四次中只有一次是投资银行主动联系我们的。在其他三次案例中,是本人或一位朋友在投资银行已向其自己的潜在客户名单进行过推介之后的某个时间点发起了交易。我们很乐意看到中间人通过想到我们来赚取他们的费用——因此在此重复我们寻找的目标:
原文
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It’s discouraging to note that though we have on four occasions made major purchases of companies whose sellers were represented by prominent investment banks, we were in only one of these instances contacted by the investment bank. In the other three cases, I myself or a friend initiated the transaction at some point after the investment bank had solicited its own list of prospects. We would love to see an intermediary earn its fee by thinking of us—and therefore repeat here what we’re looking for:
- 大规模购买(至少1,000万美元的税后利润),
- 经过验证的持续盈利能力(未来的预测对我们没什么兴趣,‘扭亏为盈’的情况也不在我们考虑之列),
- 在很少或没有负债的情况下获得良好净资产收益率的企业,
- 现成的管理层(我们无法提供),
- 简单的业务(如果涉及大量技术,我们将无法理解),
- 明确的报价(我们不想浪费时间或卖方的时间,在价格未知的情况下谈论,甚至初步谈论交易)。
原文
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Large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings),
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Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),
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Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
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Management in place (we can’t supply it),
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Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),
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An offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).
我们不会参与敌意收购。我们可以承诺完全保密和非常快速的答复——通常在五分钟内——就能告知我们是否有兴趣。(对于Brown,我们甚至不需要五分钟。)我们更倾向于现金购买,但当我们收到与所给出内在商业价值相等的股票时,也会考虑发行股票。
原文
We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer—customarily within five minutes—as to whether we’re interested. (With Brown, we didn’t even need to take five.) We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuing stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give.
我们最喜欢的购买形式是符合我们收购内布拉斯加家具城、Fechheimer’s和Borsheim’s时的那种模式。在类似这些案例中,公司的所有者-经理希望产生大量现金,有时是为了自己,但通常是为了他们的家人或不活跃的股东。同时,这些经理希望保留重要所有者身份,并继续像过去一样经营他们的公司。我们认为我们为拥有此类目标的所有者提供了特别合适的契合,我们邀请潜在的卖方通过与我们有业务往来的人核实一下我们。
原文
Our favorite form of purchase is one fitting the pattern through which we acquired Nebraska Furniture Mart, Fechheimer’s and Borsheim’s. In cases like these, the company’s owner-managers wish to generate significant amounts of cash, sometimes for themselves, but often for their families or inactive shareholders. At the same time, these managers wish to remain significant owners who continue to run their companies just as they have in the past. We think we offer a particularly good fit for owners with such objectives and we invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past.
查理和我经常收到关于收购的建议,这些建议远未达到我们的标准:我们发现,如果你打广告说你想买柯利牧羊犬,很多人会打电话来想卖给你他们的可卡犬。一首乡村歌曲中的一句歌词表达了我们对新事业、扭亏为盈或拍卖式销售的感受:“当电话不响时,你就知道是我。”
原文
Charlie and I frequently get approached about acquisitions that don’t come close to meeting our tests: We’ve found that if you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels. A line from a country song expresses our feeling about new ventures, turnarounds, or auction-like sales: “When the phone don’t ring, you’ll know it’s me.”
除了对上述业务收购感兴趣外,我们也对通过协商购买大型(但不控股)的股票块有兴趣,类似于我们持有的首都城市、所罗门、吉列、全美航空、冠军国际和美国运通等公司的股份。然而,我们对接收关于在普通股票市场上可能进行的购买的建议不感兴趣。
原文
Besides being interested in the purchase of businesses as described above, we are also interested in the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock comparable to those we hold in Capital Cities, Salomon, Gillette, USAir, Champion, and American Express. We are not interested, however, in receiving suggestions about purchases we might make in the general stock market.
保险业务
以下是我们通常列示财产-意外险行业关键数据的更新表格:
| 承保保费年增长率(%) | 包含保单持有人红利的法定综合比率 | 已发生损失年增长率(%) | GNP平减指数衡量的通胀率(%) | ||||
| 1981 | 3.8 | 106.0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | |||
| 1982 | 3.7 | 109.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | |||
| 1983 | 5.0 | 112.0 | 6.8 | 4.0 | |||
| 1984 | 8.5 | 118.0 | 16.9 | 4.5 | |||
| 1985 | 22.1 | 116.3 | 16.1 | 3.7 | |||
| 1986 | 22.2 | 108.0 | 13.5 | 2.7 | |||
| 1987 | 9.4 | 104.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 | |||
| 1988 | 4.4 | 105.4 | 5.5 | 3.9 | |||
| 1989 | 3.2 | 109.2 | 7.7 | 4.4 | |||
| 1990(修订后) | 4.4 | 109.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | |||
| 1991(预估) | 3.1 | 109.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
原文
Insurance Operations
Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the property-casualty insurance industry:
| Yearly Change in Premiums Written (%) | Statutory Combined Ratio After Policyholder Dividends | Yearly Change in Incurred Losses (%) | Inflation Rate Measured by GNP Deflator (%) | ||||
| 1981 | 3.8 | 106.0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | |||
| 1982 | 3.7 | 109.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | |||
| 1983 | 5.0 | 112.0 | 6.8 | 4.0 | |||
| 1984 | 8.5 | 118.0 | 16.9 | 4.5 | |||
| 1985 | 22.1 | 116.3 | 16.1 | 3.7 | |||
| 1986 | 22.2 | 108.0 | 13.5 | 2.7 | |||
| 1987 | 9.4 | 104.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 | |||
| 1988 | 4.4 | 105.4 | 5.5 | 3.9 | |||
| 1989 | 3.2 | 109.2 | 7.7 | 4.4 | |||
| 1990 (Revised) | 4.4 | 109.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | |||
| 1991 (Est.) | 3.1 | 109.1 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
综合比率代表保险总成本(已发生损失加费用)与保费收入的比较:低于100的比率表示承保盈利,高于100则表示亏损。比率越高,年份越差。当考虑到保险人持有保单持有人资金(“浮存金”)所获得的投资收益时,综合比率在107-111范围内通常会产生整体盈亏平衡的结果,不包括股东提供的资金所产生的收益。
原文
The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. The higher the ratio, the worse the year. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding policyholders’ funds (“the float”) is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107—111 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.
基于以往报告中阐述的原因,我们预计行业已发生损失将以接近10%的年增长率增长,即使在总体通胀率远低于此水平的时期也是如此。(在过去25年中,已发生损失的实际增长速度更快,为11%。)如果保费增长在此期间大幅落后于10%的增长率,承保损失将会增加。
原文
For the reasons laid out in previous reports, we expect the industry’s incurred losses to grow at close to 10% annually, even in periods when general inflation runs considerably lower. (Over the last 25 years, incurred losses have in reality grown at a still faster rate, 11%.) If premium growth meanwhile materially lags that 10% rate, underwriting losses will mount.
然而,当业务转差时,行业倾向于少提准备金的做法可能会暂时掩盖实际情况——而这很可能就是去年情况的写照。尽管保费增长远未达到10%,但综合比率并未像我预期的那样恶化,反而略有改善。行业的损失准备金数据表明,我们有理由对这一结果持怀疑态度,很可能1991年的实际综合比率应比报告的要差。从长远来看,通过会计手段掩盖运营问题的管理层终将面临麻烦。最终,这类管理层会达到与一位重病患者相同的效果,他告诉医生:“我付不起手术费,但你能接受一小笔钱来修饰一下X光片吗?”
原文
However, the industry’s tendency to under-reserve when business turns bad may obscure the picture for a time—and that could well describe the situation last year. Though premiums did not come close to growing 10%, the combined ratio failed to deteriorate as I had expected but instead slightly improved. Loss-reserve data for the industry indicate that there is reason to be skeptical of that outcome, and it may turn out that 1991’s ratio should have been worse than was reported. In the long run, of course, trouble awaits managements that paper over operating problems with accounting maneuvers. Eventually, managements of this kind achieve the same result as the seriously-ill patient who tells his doctor: “I can’t afford the operation, but would you accept a small payment to touch up the x-rays?”
伯克希尔的保险业务发生了一些变化,使得综合比率——无论是我们自己的还是行业的——与我们业绩的相关性大大降低。对我们而言,重要的是”保险业务产生的资金成本”,或者通俗地说,“浮存金的成本”。
原文
Berkshire’s insurance business has changed in ways that make combined ratios, our own or the industry’s, largely irrelevant to our performance. What counts with us is the “cost of funds developed from insurance,” or in the vernacular, “the cost of float.”
浮存金——我们以非同寻常的规模产生——是损失准备金、损失调整费用准备金和未赚保费准备金的总和,减去代理人余额、预付收购成本和与假设再保险相关的递延费用。而浮存金的成本由我们的承保损失来衡量。
原文
Float—which we generate in exceptional amounts—is the total of loss reserves, loss adjustment expense reserves and unearned premium reserves minus agents balances, prepaid acquisition costs and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. And the cost of float is measured by our underwriting loss.
下表显示了我们自1967年进入该行业以来的浮存金成本。
| (1) 承保损失 | (2) 平均浮存金 | 近似资金成本 | 长期政府债券年末收益率 | |
| (单位:百万美元) | (1与2之比) | |||
| 1967 | 盈利 | $17.3 | 低于零 | 5.50% |
| 1968 | 盈利 | 19.9 | 低于零 | 5.90% |
| 1969 | 盈利 | 23.4 | 低于零 | 6.79% |
| 1970 | $0.37 | 32.4 | 1.14% | 6.25% |
| 1971 | 盈利 | 52.5 | 低于零 | 5.81% |
| 1972 | 盈利 | 69.5 | 低于零 | 5.82% |
| 1973 | 盈利 | 73.3 | 低于零 | 7.27% |
| 1974 | 7.36 | 79.1 | 9.30% | 8.13% |
| 1975 | 11.35 | 87.6 | 12.96% | 8.03% |
| 1976 | 盈利 | 102.6 | 低于零 | 7.30% |
| 1977 | 盈利 | 139.0 | 低于零 | 7.97% |
| 1978 | 盈利 | 190.4 | 低于零 | 8. |
我们在表格中给予全美航空的低估值,反映了该行业几乎对所有参与者都持续无利可图的风险,这一风险绝不可忽视。法院一直鼓励破产的航空公司继续运营,这加剧了风险。这些破产承运人可以暂时收取低于行业成本的票价,因为它们无需承担有偿付能力的同行所面临的资本成本,并且可以通过出售资产来弥补亏损——从而避免倒闭。这种破产航空公司“烧家具取暖”的定价策略,导致原本处于边缘地位的航空公司相继倒下,形成一种完美的多米诺骨牌效应,使整个行业陷入困境。
原文
The low valuation that we have given USAir in our table reflects the risk that the industry will remain unprofitable for virtually all participants in it, a risk that is far from negligible. The risk is heightened by the fact that the courts have been encouraging bankrupt carriers to continue operating. These carriers can temporarily charge fares that are below the industry’s costs because the bankrupts don’t incur the capital costs faced by their solvent brethren and because they can fund their losses—and thereby stave off shutdown—by selling off assets. This burn-the-furniture-to-provide-firewood approach to fare-setting by bankrupt carriers contributes to the toppling of previously-marginal carriers, creating a domino effect that is perfectly designed to bring the industry to its knees.
塞思·斯科菲尔德(Seth Schofield)于1991年成为全美航空的CEO,他正在对航空公司的运营进行重大调整,以提高其成为少数幸存者之一的可能性。在美国企业界,没有比经营一家航空公司更艰难的工作了:尽管有大量股权资本注入,但该行业自诞生以来,总体上一直处于亏损状态。航空公司管理者需要智慧、勇气和经验——而塞思三者兼备。
原文
Seth Schofield, who became CEO of USAir in 1991, is making major adjustments in the airline’s operations in order to improve its chances of being one of the few industry survivors. There is no tougher job in corporate America than running an airline: Despite the huge amounts of equity capital that have been injected into it, the industry, in aggregate, has posted a net loss since its birth after Kitty Hawk. Airline managers need brains, guts, and experience—and Seth possesses all three of these attributes.
杂项
大约97.7%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔1991年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐赠的金额为680万美元,共惠及2,630家慈善机构。
原文
Miscellaneous
About 97.7% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire’s 1991 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made through the program were $6.8 million, and 2,630 charities were recipients.
我们建议新股东阅读第48-49页关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。要参与未来的计划,您必须确保您的股票以实际所有者的名义登记,而不是以经纪人、银行或存管机构的代名人名义登记。未在1992年8月31日前以这种方式登记的股份将没有资格参加1992年的计划。
原文
We suggest that new shareholders read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 48-49. To participate in future programs, you must make sure your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 1992 will be ineligible for the 1992 program.
除了伯克希尔分配的股东指定捐赠外,我们运营企业的管理者也会进行捐赠,包括商品,平均每年约150万美元。这些捐赠支持当地慈善机构,例如联合劝募协会,并为我们的企业带来大致相称的收益。
原文
In addition to the shareholder-designated contributions that Berkshire distributes, managers of our operating businesses make contributions, including merchandise, averaging about $1.5 million annually. These contributions support local charities, such as The United Way, and produce roughly commensurate benefits for our businesses.
然而,无论是我们的运营经理还是母公司的管理人员,都不会使用伯克希尔的资金向广泛的国家计划或他们个人特别感兴趣的慈善活动捐款,除非他们是作为股东这样做。如果你的员工,包括你的CEO,希望向他们的母校或其他他们个人有感情联系的机构捐款,我们认为他们应该使用自己的钱,而不是你的。
原文
However, neither our operating managers nor officers of the parent company use Berkshire funds to make contributions to broad national programs or charitable activities of special personal interest to them, except to the extent they do so as shareholders. If your employees, including your CEO, wish to give to their alma maters or other institutions to which they feel a personal attachment, we believe they should use their own money, not yours.
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细心的读者会注意到,多年来首次,查理致威斯科股东的信没有在本报告中重印。由于他今年的信内容相对简略,查理说他觉得没有必要将其收录在此;不过,我个人的建议是,您最好索取一份威斯科的报告。只需写信至:Corporate Secretary, Wesco Financial Corporation, 315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91101。
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The faithful will notice that, for the first time in some years, Charlie’s annual letter to Wesco shareholders is not reprinted in this report. Since his letter is relatively barebones this year, Charlie said he saw no point in including it in these pages; my own recommendation, however, is that you get a copy of the Wesco report. Simply write: Corporate Secretary, Wesco Financial Corporation, 315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91101.
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小马尔科姆·G·蔡斯(Malcolm G. Chace, Jr.)现年88岁,决定今年不再参选董事。但蔡斯家族与伯克希尔的联系不会终结:马尔科姆的儿子马尔科姆三世(金)(Malcolm III (Kim))将被提名接替他。
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Malcolm G. Chace, Jr., now 88, has decided not to stand for election as a director this year. But the association of the Chace family with Berkshire will not end: Malcolm III (Kim), Malcolm’s son, will be nominated to replace him.
1931年,马尔科姆进入伯克希尔精细纺纱联合公司(Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates)工作,该公司于1955年与哈撒韦制造公司(Hathaway Manufacturing Co.)合并,形成了我们现在的公司。两年后,马尔科姆成为伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长,并在1965年初,他促使巴菲特合伙有限公司(Buffett Partnership, Ltd.)从他的一些亲属手中买下了伯克希尔股票的关键一批。这次购买使我们的合伙公司有效控制了公司。与此同时,马尔科姆的直系亲属保留了他们的伯克希尔股票,并在过去的27年里一直是公司的第二大股东,仅次于巴菲特家族。与马尔科姆共事令人愉快,我们很高兴蔡斯家族与伯克希尔之间长期的关系能够延续到新一代。
原文
In 1931, Malcolm went to work for Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates, which merged with Hathaway Manufacturing Co. in 1955 to form our present company. Two years later, Malcolm became Berkshire Hathaway’s Chairman, a position he held as well in early 1965 when he made it possible for Buffett Partnership, Ltd. to buy a key block of Berkshire stock owned by some of his relatives. This purchase gave our partnership effective control of the company. Malcolm’s immediate family meanwhile kept its Berkshire stock and for the last 27 years has had the second-largest holding in the company, trailing only the Buffett family. Malcolm has been a joy to work with and we are delighted that the long-running relationship between the Chace family and Berkshire is continuing to a new generation.
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今年的年会将于1992年4月27日星期一上午9:30在奥马哈市中心的奥菲姆剧院(Orpheum Theater)举行。去年参会人数创纪录地达到1,550人,但这仍然为奥菲姆剧院留出了充足的空间。
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The annual meeting this year will be held at the Orpheum Theater in downtown Omaha at 9:30 a.m. on Monday, April 27, 1992. Attendance last year grew to a record 1,550, but that still leaves plenty of room at the Orpheum.
我们建议您尽早从以下酒店中预订房间:(1)雷迪森-雷迪克大厦酒店(Radisson-Redick Tower),一家小型(88间客房)但不错的酒店,位于奥菲姆剧院对面;(2)规模大得多的红狮酒店(Red Lion Hotel),距奥菲姆剧院约五分钟步行路程;(3)万豪酒店(Marriott),位于西奥马哈,距离波仙珠宝(Borsheim’s)约100码,距市中心约二十分钟车程。我们将在万豪酒店安排巴士,于8:30和8:45出发前往会场,并在会议结束后返回。
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We recommend that you get your hotel reservations early at one of these hotels: (1) The Radisson-Redick Tower, a small (88 rooms) but nice hotel across the street from the Orpheum; (2) the much larger Red Lion Hotel, located about a five-minute walk from the Orpheum; (3) the Marriott, located in West Omaha about 100 yards from Borsheim’s and a twenty minute drive from downtown. We will have buses at the Marriott that will leave at 8:30 and 8:45 for the meeting and return after it ends.
查理和我一直都很享受年会,我们希望您能参加。我们股东的质量体现在我们收到的提问质量上:我们从未在任何其他年会上看到过如此一贯高水平的、与所有者相关的睿智问题。
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Charlie and I always enjoy the meeting, and we hope you can make it. The quality of our shareholders is reflected in the quality of the questions we get: We have never attended an annual meeting anywhere that features such a consistently high level of intelligent, owner-related questions.
我们的代理材料附件说明了如何获取参加会议所需的入场卡。我们会随入场卡附上奥菲姆剧院附近停车设施的信息。如果您开车前来,请提早一点到达。附近的停车场很快就会停满,您可能需要步行几个街区。
原文
An attachment to our proxy material explains how you can obtain the card you will need for admission to the meeting. With the admission card, we will enclose information about parking facilities located near the Orpheum. If you are driving, come a little early. Nearby lots fill up quickly and you may have to walk a few blocks.
像往常一样,会议结束后我们将安排巴士送您前往内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)和波仙珠宝,之后再从那里送您到市中心酒店或机场。希望您能预留充足时间,充分探索这两家商店的精彩之处。提前到达的客人可以在一周中的任何一天参观家具城;周六营业时间为上午10点至下午5:30,周日为中午12点至下午5:30。在那里,请光顾喜诗糖果(See’s Candy)推车,亲自了解为什么去年美国人吃掉了2600万磅喜诗产品。
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As usual, we will have buses to take you to Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheim’s after the meeting and to take you from there to downtown hotels or the airport later. I hope that you will allow plenty of time to fully explore the attractions of both stores. Those of you arriving early can visit the Furniture Mart any day of the week; it is open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Saturdays and from noon to 5:30 p.m. on Sundays. While there, stop at the See’s Candy Cart and find out for yourself why Americans ate 26 million pounds of See’s products last year.
波仙珠宝通常周日不营业,但我们将在4月26日周日中午12点至下午6点为股东及其宾客开放。波仙珠宝还将在前一天晚上举办一场特别派对,欢迎股东参加。(不过,您必须写信至我们办公室的格拉迪斯·凯泽(Gladys Kaiser)女士处索取邀请函。)当晚将展出百达翡丽(Patek Philippe)150年来最杰出的时计作品,包括曾属于维多利亚女王、教皇庇护九世、鲁德亚德·吉卜林、居里夫人和阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的手表。展览的核心展品是一款价值500万美元的手表,其设计和制造耗费了百达翡丽工匠九年的心血。这款手表将与其他收藏品一起在周日的商店中展出——除非查理一时冲动将其买下。
原文
Borsheim’s normally is closed on Sunday, but we will be open for shareholders and their guests from noon to 6 p.m. on Sunday, April 26. Borsheim’s will also have a special party the previous evening at which shareholders are welcome. (You must, however, write Mrs. Gladys Kaiser at our office for an invitation.) On display that evening will be a 150-year retrospective of the most exceptional timepieces made by Patek Philippe, including watches once owned by Queen Victoria, Pope Pius IX, Rudyard Kipling, Madame Curie and Albert Einstein. The centerpiece of the exhibition will be a $5 million watch whose design and manufacture required nine years of labor by Patek Philippe craftsmen. Along with the rest of the collection, this watch will be on display at the store on Sunday—unless Charlie has by then impulsively bought it.
尼古拉斯·肯纳(Nicholas Kenner)在去年的年会上又一次抓住了我的把柄,指出我在1990年年报中说他1990年5月时是11岁,而实际上他当时是9岁。所以,尼古拉斯有些尖刻地问道:“如果你连这个都搞不清楚,我怎么能相信后面[财务报表]的数字是正确的呢?”我还在寻找一个巧妙的回应。尼古拉斯将参加今年的年会——他拒绝了我那天带他去迪士尼乐园的提议——所以,一起来见证这场一边倒的智慧较量吧。
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Nicholas Kenner nailed me—again—at last year’s meeting, pointing out that I had said in the 1990 annual report that he was 11 in May 1990, when actually he was 9. So, asked Nicholas rather caustically: “If you can’t get that straight, how do I know the numbers in the back [the financials] are correct?” I’m still searching for a snappy response. Nicholas will be at this year’s meeting—he spurned my offer of a trip to Disney World on that day—so join us to watch a continuation of this lop-sided battle of wits.
1992年2月28日
沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席
原文
February 28, 1992
Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board