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1994年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的信


致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

1994年我们的净资产增加了14.5亿美元,增幅为13.9%。在过去的30年中(即从现任管理层接手以来),我们的每股账面价值从19美元增长到10,083美元,年复合增长率为23%。

原文

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our gain in net worth during 1994 was $1.45 billion or 13.9%. Over the last 30 years (that is, since present management took over) our per-share book value has grown from $19 to $10,083, or at a rate of 23% compounded annually.

查理·芒格,伯克希尔的副董事长兼我的合伙人,和我很少做预测。然而,我们可以很有把握地做出一个预测:伯克希尔未来的业绩将远不能与过去相比。

原文

Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner, and I make few predictions. One we will confidently offer, however, is that the future performance of Berkshire won’t come close to matching the performance of the past.

问题不在于过去行之有效的方法在未来会失效。恰恰相反,我们相信我们的公式——以合理价格买入具有良好基本经济特征并由诚实能干的人经营的企业——必定会带来合理的成功。因此,我们预计将继续表现良好。

原文

The problem is not that what has worked in the past will cease to work in the future. To the contrary, we believe that our formula—the purchase at sensible prices of businesses that have good underlying economics and are run by honest and able people—is certain to produce reasonable success. We expect, therefore, to keep on doing well.

然而,臃肿的资产规模是卓越投资业绩的敌人。伯克希尔现在的净资产为119亿美元,而查理和我开始管理公司时只有约2200万美元。虽然优秀企业的数量一如既往地多,但对我们来说,购买那些相对于伯克希尔资本规模微不足道的投资是毫无意义的。(正如查理经常提醒我的:“如果一件事根本不值得做,那就不值得做好。“)我们现在只考虑购买那些我们认为至少能投入1亿美元的证券。鉴于这一最低门槛,伯克希尔的可投资范围已急剧缩小。

原文

A fat wallet, however, is the enemy of superior investment results. And Berkshire now has a net worth of $11.9 billion compared to about $22 million when Charlie and I began to manage the company. Though there are as many good businesses as ever, it is useless for us to make purchases that are inconsequential in relation to Berkshire’s capital. (As Charlie regularly reminds me, “If something is not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well.”) We now consider a security for purchase only if we believe we can deploy at least $100 million in it. Given that minimum, Berkshire’s investment universe has shrunk dramatically.

尽管如此,我们将坚持让我们走到今天的方法,并努力不放松标准。泰德·威廉姆斯在《我的故事》中解释了原因:“我的观点是,要成为一名优秀的击球手,你必须得到好球才能打。这是本书的第一条规则。如果我必须去咬那些不在我舒适区内的球,我就不是0.344的击球手。我可能只是一个0.250的击球手。“查理和我同意这一点,并将努力等待那些完全在我们”舒适区”内的机会。

原文

Nevertheless, we will stick with the approach that got us here and try not to relax our standards. Ted Williams, in The Story of My Life, explains why: “My argument is, to be a good hitter, you’ve got to get a good ball to hit. It’s the first rule in the book. If I have to bite at stuff that is out of my happy zone, I’m not a .344 hitter. I might only be a .250 hitter.” Charlie and I agree and will try to wait for opportunities that are well within our own “happy zone.”

我们将继续忽略政治和经济预测,这些对许多投资者和商人来说是一种昂贵的干扰。三十年前,没有人能够预见越战的巨大扩张、工资和价格管制、两次石油危机、一位总统的辞职、苏联的解体、道琼斯指数单日下跌508点,或国债收益率在2.8%到17.4%之间波动。

原文

We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%.

但是,令人惊讶的是——这些重大事件中没有一件对本·格雷厄姆的投资原则产生丝毫影响。它们也没有使以合理价格协商收购优质企业的做法变得不可靠。想象一下,如果我们因对未知的恐惧而推迟或改变资本配置,我们会付出何等代价。事实上,我们通常在对某些宏观事件担忧达到顶峰时做出了最好的投资。恐惧是跟风者的敌人,却是基本面信徒的朋友。

原文

But, surprise—none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in Ben Graham’s investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, then, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.

未来30年一定会发生一系列不同的重大冲击。我们既不会试图预测这些冲击,也不会试图从中获利。如果我们能够识别出与过去所购买企业类似的企业,外部冲击对我们长期业绩的影响将微乎其微。

原文

A different set of major shocks is sure to occur in the next 30 years. We will neither try to predict these nor to profit from them. If we can identify businesses similar to those we have purchased in the past, external surprises will have little effect on our long-term results.

我们向你们承诺——伴随着更温和的收益——在你们拥有伯克希尔股份期间,你们的境遇将与查理和我完全一样。如果你遭受损失,我们也会遭受损失;如果我们成功,你们也会成功。我们不会通过引入那种让我们在上涨时获得比下跌时更多收益的薪酬安排来打破这种纽带。

原文

What we promise you—along with more modest gains—is that during your ownership of Berkshire, you will fare just as Charlie and I do. If you suffer, we will suffer; if we prosper, so will you. And we will not break this bond by introducing compensation arrangements that give us a greater participation in the upside than the downside.

我们进一步向你们承诺,我们个人的财富将压倒性地集中在伯克希尔的股票上:我们不会要求你们与我们一同投资,而把自己的钱投到别处。此外,伯克希尔股票主导了我们大多数家庭成员以及许多在1960年代曾与查理和我合伙经营的投资伙伴的投资组合。我们不可能没有动力去竭尽全力。

原文

We further promise you that our personal fortunes will remain overwhelmingly concentrated in Berkshire shares: We will not ask you to invest with us and then put our own money elsewhere. In addition, Berkshire dominates both the investment portfolios of most members of our families and of a great many friends who belonged to partnerships that Charlie and I ran in the 1960’s. We could not be more motivated to do our best.

幸运的是,我们有一个良好的工作基础。十年前,即1984年,伯克希尔的保险公司持有价值17亿美元的证券,相当于每股伯克希尔股票约1500美元。撇开这些证券的所有收入和资本收益不计,伯克希尔当年的税前收益仅为约600万美元。我们确实从各种制造、零售和服务业务中获得了收益,但这些收益几乎完全被保险业务的承保损失、公司管理费和利息支出的总和所抵消。

原文

Luckily, we have a good base from which to work. Ten years ago, in 1984, Berkshire’s insurance companies held securities having a value of $1.7 billion, or about $1,500 per Berkshire share. Leaving aside all income and capital gains from those securities, Berkshire’s pre-tax earnings that year were only about $6 million. We had earnings, yes, from our various manufacturing, retailing and service businesses, but they were almost entirely offset by the combination of underwriting losses in our insurance business, corporate overhead and interest expense.

现在我们持有价值180亿美元的证券,相当于每股伯克希尔股票超过15,000美元。如果再次剔除所有这些证券的收益,我们在1994年的税前收益约为3.84亿美元。在这十年间,员工人数从5,000人增加到22,000人(包括世界总部11人)。

原文

Now we hold securities worth $18 billion, or over $15,000 per Berkshire share. If you again exclude all income from these securities, our pre-tax earnings in 1994 were about $384 million. During the decade, employment has grown from 5,000 to 22,000 (including eleven people at World Headquarters).

我们通过一批出色的运营经理的努力取得了这些收益,他们从一些看似普通的企业中取得了非凡的成果。凯西·斯坦格尔将管理棒球队描述为”因其他伙计击出的本垒打而获得报酬”。这也是我在伯克希尔的公式。

原文

We achieved our gains through the efforts of a superb corps of operating managers who get extraordinary results from some ordinary-appearing businesses. Casey Stengel described managing a baseball team as “getting paid for home runs other fellows hit.” That’s my formula at Berkshire, also.

我们拥有部分权益的企业对伯克希尔的成功同样重要。一些统计数据将说明其意义:1994年,可口可乐销售了约2800亿份8盎司装饮品,每份利润略低于1美分。但积少成多。通过伯克希尔持有可口可乐7.8%的股份,我们在其210亿份饮品中拥有经济利益,这为我们带来了近2亿美元的”软饮料收益”。同样,通过持有吉列股票,伯克希尔拥有全球剃须刀和刀片市场7%的份额(按收入而非数量计算),这使我们在1994年获得了约2.5亿美元的销售额。而在富国银行,这家拥有530亿美元资产的银行,我们的13%持股相当于一家70亿美元的”伯克希尔银行”,在1994年赚取了约1亿美元。

原文

The businesses in which we have partial interests are equally important to Berkshire’s success. A few statistics will illustrate their significance: In 1994, Coca-Cola sold about 280 billion 8-ounce servings and earned a little less than a penny on each. But pennies add up. Through Berkshire’s 7.8% ownership of Coke, we have an economic interest in 21 billion of its servings, which produce “soft-drink earnings” for us of nearly $200 million. Similarly, by way of its Gillette stock, Berkshire has a 7% share of the world’s razor and blade market (measured by revenues, not by units), a proportion according us about $250 million of sales in 1994. And, at Wells Fargo, a $53 billion bank, our 13% ownership translates into a $7 billion “Berkshire Bank” that earned about $100 million during 1994.

拥有”希望之钻”的很大一部分,远胜于拥有”人造钻石”的全部,而刚才提到的那些公司完全有资格成为稀世珍宝。最棒的是,我们并不局限于少数这类企业,而是拥有一个不断增长的收藏。

原文

It’s far better to own a significant portion of the Hope diamond than 100% of a rhinestone, and the companies just mentioned easily qualify as rare gems. Best of all, we aren’t limited to simply a few of this breed, but instead possess a growing collection.

股票价格将继续波动——有时波动剧烈——经济也将有起有落。然而,随着时间的推移,我们相信我们所拥有的这类企业的价值极有可能以令人满意的速度持续增长。

原文

Stock prices will continue to fluctuate—sometimes sharply—and the economy will have its ups and down. Over time, however, we believe it highly probable that the sort of businesses we own will continue to increase in value at a satisfactory rate.

账面价值与内在价值

我们定期报告我们的每股账面价值,这是一个易于计算的数字,但用途有限。同样定期地,我们告诉你们真正重要的是内在价值,这是一个无法精确确定但必须估算的数字。

原文

Book Value and Intrinsic Value

We regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. Just as regularly, we tell you that what counts is intrinsic value, a number that is impossible to pinpoint but essential to estimate.

例如,1964年,我们可以肯定地说伯克希尔的每股账面价值是19.46美元。然而,这个数字大大高估了股票的内在价值,因为公司所有资源都束缚在一个利润微薄的纺织业务中。我们的纺织资产无论是持续经营价值还是清算价值都不等于其账面价值。因此,1964年,任何对伯克希尔资产负债表的稳健性提出质疑的人,可能都值得听到一位声誉可疑的好莱坞大亨曾经给出的回答:“别担心,负债是实实在在的。”

原文

For example, in 1964, we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the stock’s intrinsic value since all of the company’s resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. In 1964, then, anyone inquiring into the soundness of Berkshire’s balance sheet might well have deserved the answer once offered up by a Hollywood mogul of dubious reputation: “Don’t worry, the liabilities are solid.”

如今,伯克希尔的状况发生了逆转:我们控制的许多企业的价值远高于其账面价值。(我们未控制的企业,如可口可乐或吉列,按当前市值入账。)然而,我们继续向你们提供账面价值数据,因为它们可以作为伯克希尔内在价值的一个粗略(尽管被严重低估)的追踪指标。事实上,去年这两个指标同步变动:账面价值增长了13.9%,内在价值也大约增长了同样的幅度。

原文

Today, Berkshire’s situation has reversed: Many of the businesses we control are worth far more than their carrying value. (Those we don’t control, such as Coca-Cola or Gillette, are carried at current market values.) We continue to give you book value figures, however, because they serve as a rough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire’s intrinsic value. Last year, in fact, the two measures moved in concert: Book value gained 13.9%, and that was the approximate gain in intrinsic value also.

我们将内在价值定义为一家企业在其余下生命周期内可以提取的现金的折现值。任何计算内在价值的人必然会得出一个高度主观的数字,这个数字会随着未来现金流估计的修正和利率的变动而变化。尽管存在模糊性,内在价值仍然至关重要,是评估投资和企业相对吸引力的唯一逻辑方法。

原文

We define intrinsic value as the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. Anyone calculating intrinsic value necessarily comes up with a highly subjective figure that will change both as estimates of future cash flows are revised and as interest rates move. Despite its fuzziness, however, intrinsic value is all-important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.

为了理解历史输入(账面价值)和未来输出(内在价值)如何可能分歧,让我们看看另一种投资形式——大学教育。将教育的成本视为其”账面价值”。如果要精确,成本应包括学生因选择上大学而非工作而放弃的收入。

原文

To see how historical input (book value) and future output (intrinsic value) can diverge, let’s look at another form of investment, a college education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If it is to be accurate, the cost should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.

为了这个练习,我们将忽略教育的重要非经济利益,严格关注其经济价值。首先,我们必须估计毕业生在其一生中获得的收入,并从中减去他如果没有接受教育本可获得的收入估计值。这给了我们一个超额收益数字,然后必须以适当的利率将其折现回毕业日。得到的美元结果等于教育的内在经济价值。

原文

For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.

一些毕业生会发现他们教育的账面价值超过其内在价值,这意味着为教育付费的人没有得到应有的回报。在其他情况下,教育的内在价值将远远超过其账面价值,这一结果证明了资本被明智地配置了。在所有情况下,显而易见的是,账面价值作为内在价值的指标毫无意义。

原文

Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.

现在让我们少一些学术性,看看伯克希尔自身经历中的一个例子——斯科特·费策尔公司。这个案例不仅将说明账面价值与内在价值之间的关系如何变化,还将提供一堂我知道你们一直翘首以盼的会计课。当然,我在这里选择谈论的是一个最终成为巨大赢家的收购案例。

原文

Now let’s get less academic and look at Scott Fetzer, an example from Berkshire’s own experience. This account will not only illustrate how the relationship of book value and intrinsic value can change but also will provide an accounting lesson that I know you have been breathlessly awaiting. Naturally, I’ve chosen here to talk about an acquisition that has turned out to be a huge winner.

伯克希尔于1986年初收购了斯科特·费策尔。当时,该公司拥有22项业务,今天我们拥有完全相同的业务组合——没有增加,也没有处置。斯科特·费策尔的主要业务是World Book、Kirby和Campbell Hausfeld,但许多其他业务单位也是重要的利润贡献者。

原文

Berkshire purchased Scott Fetzer at the beginning of 1986. At the time, the company was a collection of 22 businesses, and today we have exactly the same line-up—no additions and no disposals. Scott Fetzer’s main operations are World Book, Kirby, and Campbell Hausfeld, but many other units are important contributors to earnings as well.

我们为斯科特·费策尔支付了3.152亿美元,而当时其账面价值为1.726亿美元。我们支付的1.426亿美元溢价表明我们相信该公司的内在价值接近其账面价值的两倍。

原文

We paid $315.2 million for Scott Fetzer, which at the time had $172.6 million of book value. The $142.6 million premium we handed over indicated our belief that the company’s intrinsic value was close to double its book value.

在下表中,我们追溯了自购买以来斯科特·费策尔的账面价值、收益和分红情况。

年份(1) 期初账面价值(2) 收益(3) 分红(4) 期末账面价值 (1)+(2)-(3)
(单位:百万美元)
1986$172.6$ 40.3$125.0$ 87.9
198787.948.641.095.5
198895.558.035.0118.6
1989118.658.571.5105.5
1990105.561.333.5133.3
1991133.361.474.0120.7
1992120.770.580.0111.2
1993111.277.598.090.7
199490.779.376.094.0
原文

In the table below we trace the book value of Scott Fetzer, as well as its earnings and dividends, since our purchase.

Year(1) Beginning Book Value(2) Earnings(3) Dividends(4) Ending Book Value
(In $ Millions)(1)+(2)-(3)
1986$172.6$ 40.3$125.0$ 87.9
198787.948.641.095.5
198895.558.035.0118.6
1989118.658.571.5105.5
1990105.561.333.5133.3
1991133.361.474.0120.7
1992120.770.580.0111.2
1993111.277.598.090.7
199490.779.376.094.0

由于在我们交易完成时斯科特·费策尔拥有超额现金,尽管当年仅赚取了4030万美元,它仍能在1986年向伯克希尔支付1.25亿美元的分红。我应该提一下,我们没有在斯科特·费策尔的资产负债表中引入杠杆。事实上,该公司从我们收购时的非常适度债务变为几乎没有债务(除了其金融子公司使用的债务)。同样,我们也没有出售工厂再回租,或出售应收账款,或类似的行为。在我们拥有的所有年份里,斯科特·费策尔一直是一家财务保守且流动性充足的企业。

原文

Because it had excess cash when our deal was made, Scott Fetzer was able to pay Berkshire dividends of $125 million in 1986, though it earned only $40.3 million. I should mention that we have not introduced leverage into Scott Fetzer’s balance sheet. In fact, the company has gone from very modest debt when we purchased it to virtually no debt at all (except for debt used by its finance subsidiary). Similarly, we have not sold plants and leased them back, nor sold receivables, nor the like. Throughout our years of ownership, Scott Fetzer has operated as a conservatively-financed and liquid enterprise.

正如你们所见,自我们收购以来,斯科特·费策尔的收益稳步增长,但账面价值并未相应增长。因此,在我们收购时已经十分出色的股本回报率,如今已变得真正非凡。将斯科特·费策尔的业绩与《财富》500强公司相比,就能看出其非凡程度——如果它是独立公司,它完全有资格入选该榜单。

原文

As you can see, Scott Fetzer’s earnings have increased steadily since we bought it, but book value has not grown commensurately. Consequently, return on equity, which was exceptional at the time of our purchase, has now become truly extraordinary. Just how extraordinary is illustrated by comparing Scott Fetzer’s performance to that of the Fortune 500, a group it would qualify for if it were a stand-alone company.

如果斯科特·费策尔出现在1993年的500强榜单上——这是最新可查的——其股本回报率将排名第四。但这远非全部。股本回报率排名前三的公司分别是Insilco、LTV和Gaylord Container,它们均在1993年摆脱破产,且当年均未实现有意义的收益,除非算上破产程序中债务减免带来的收益。撇开这些非经营性意外收益,斯科特·费策尔的股本回报率将使其在《财富》500强中排名第一,远超第二名。事实上,斯科特·费策尔的股本回报率是排名第十的公司的两倍。

原文

Had Scott Fetzer been on the 1993 500 list—the latest available for inspection—the company’s return on equity would have ranked 4th. But that is far from the whole story. The top three companies in return on equity were Insilco, LTV and Gaylord Container, each of which emerged from bankruptcy in 1993 and none of which achieved meaningful earnings that year except for those they realized when they were accorded debt forgiveness in bankruptcy proceedings. Leaving aside such non-operating windfalls, Scott Fetzer’s return on equity would have ranked it first on the Fortune 500, well ahead of number two. Indeed, Scott Fetzer’s return on equity was double that of the company ranking tenth.

你们可能会认为斯科特·费策尔的成功只能用收益的周期性高峰、垄断地位或杠杆来解释。但并没有这种情况。相反,公司的成功来自首席执行官拉尔夫·斯凯的管理专长,我稍后会详细介绍他。

原文

You might expect that Scott Fetzer’s success could only be explained by a cyclical peak in earnings, a monopolistic position, or leverage. But no such circumstances apply. Rather, the company’s success comes from the managerial expertise of CEO Ralph Schey, of whom I’ll tell you more later.

然而,首先,是承诺的会计课:当我们为斯科特·费策尔支付了超过其账面价值1.426亿美元的溢价时,该数字必须记录在伯克希尔的资产负债表上。我将省略这一过程如何运作的细节(这些在1986年年报的附录中已有说明),直接进入核心结论:在溢价最初记录后,在几乎所有情况下,它必须通过收购公司损益表中显示为成本的年度费用随着时间的推移逐步摊销。

原文

First, however, the promised accounting lesson: When we paid a $142.6 million premium over book value for Scott Fetzer, that figure had to be recorded on Berkshire’s balance sheet. I’ll spare you the details of how this worked (these were laid out in an appendix to our 1986 Annual Report) and get to the bottom line: After a premium is initially recorded, it must in almost all cases be written off over time through annual charges that are shown as costs in the acquiring company’s earnings statement.

下表首先显示了伯克希尔为逐步摊销斯科特·费策尔的收购溢价所做的年度费用,其次显示了仍留在我们账上的溢价金额。这些费用对现金或我们缴纳的税款没有影响,并且在我们看来并非经济成本(尽管许多会计师会不同意我们的观点)。它们只是我们减少斯科特·费策尔在我们账上账面价值的一种方式,以便该数字最终与斯科特·费策尔在其业务中实际使用的净资产相匹配。

年份期初收购溢价伯克希尔收益中的收购溢价摊销费用期末收购溢价
(单位:百万美元)
1986$142.6$ 11.6$131.0
1987131.07.1123.9
1988123.97.9115.9
1989115.97.0108.9
1990108.97.1101.9
1991101.96.995.0
199295.07.787.2
199387.228.159.1
199459.14.954.2
原文

The following table shows, first, the annual charges Berkshire has made to gradually extinguish the Scott Fetzer acquisition premium and, second, the premium that remains on our books. These charges have no effect on cash or the taxes we pay, and are not, in our view, an economic cost (though many accountants would disagree with us). They are merely a way for us to reduce the carrying value of Scott Fetzer on our books so that the figure will eventually match the net worth that Scott Fetzer actually employs in its business.

YearBeginning Purchase PremiumPurchase-Premium Charge to Berkshire EarningsEnding Purchase Premium
(In $ Millions)
1986$142.6$ 11.6$131.0
1987131.07.1123.9
1988123.97.9115.9
1989115.97.0108.9
1990108.97.1101.9
1991101.96.995.0
199295.07.787.2
199387.228.159.1
199459.14.954.2

请注意,到1994年底,溢价已减少至5420万美元。当这个数字加上斯科特·费策尔年末账面价值9400万美元时,总额为1.482亿美元,这是斯科特·费策尔目前在伯克希尔账上的账面价值。这一数字不到我们收购该公司时账面价值的一半。然而,斯科特·费策尔现在的收益大约是当时的两倍。显然,该企业的内在价值一直在持续增长,尽管我们同样持续地通过收购溢价摊销费用减少其账面价值,而这降低了伯克希尔的收益和净资产。

原文

Note that by the end of 1994 the premium was reduced to $54.2 million. When this figure is added to Scott Fetzer’s year-end book value of $94 million, the total is $148.2 million, which is the current carrying value of Scott Fetzer on Berkshire’s books. That amount is less than half of our carrying value for the company when it was acquired. Yet Scott Fetzer is now earning about twice what it then did. Clearly, the intrinsic value of the business has consistently grown, even though we have just as consistently marked down its carrying value through purchase-premium charges that reduced Berkshire’s earnings and net worth.

斯科特·费策尔的内在价值与其在伯克希尔账上的账面价值之间的差距现在巨大。正如我之前提到的——并且很乐意再次提到——这一令人愉快的错配要归功于拉尔夫·斯凯,一位专注、聪明且高素质的管理者。

原文

The difference between Scott Fetzer’s intrinsic value and its carrying value on Berkshire’s books is now huge. As I mentioned earlier—but am delighted to mention again—credit for this agreeable mismatch goes to Ralph Schey, a focused, smart and high-grade manager.

拉尔夫成功的原因并不复杂。本·格雷厄姆在45年前教导我,在投资中,没有必要为了获得非凡的成果而做非凡的事情。在后来的人生中,我惊讶地发现这一论断同样适用于企业管理。管理者必须做的是妥善处理基本事务,不要偏离方向。这正是拉尔夫的公式。他设定正确的目标,并且从不忘记自己打算做什么。在个人方面,与拉尔夫共事是一种享受。他对问题直言不讳,自信而不自大。

原文

The reasons for Ralph’s success are not complicated. Ben Graham taught me 45 years ago that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results. In later life, I have been surprised to find that this statement holds true in business management as well. What a manager must do is handle the basics well and not get diverted. That’s precisely Ralph’s formula. He establishes the right goals and never forgets what he set out to do. On the personal side, Ralph is a joy to work with. He’s forthright about problems and is self-confident without being self-important.

他也很有经验。虽然我不知道拉尔夫的年龄,但我知道,像我们许多管理者一样,他已经超过65岁了。在伯克希尔,我们看的是业绩,而不是日历。查理和我,分别71岁和64岁,现在在办公桌上放着乔治·福尔曼的照片。你们可以打赌,我们对强制退休年龄的蔑视将逐年增强。

原文

He is also experienced. Though I don’t know Ralph’s age, I do know that, like many of our managers, he is over 65. At Berkshire, we look to performance, not to the calendar. Charlie and I, at 71 and 64 respectively, now keep George Foreman’s picture on our desks. You can make book that our scorn for a mandatory retirement age will grow stronger every year.

内在价值与资本配置

理解内在价值对管理者和投资者同样重要。当管理者做出资本配置决策——包括回购股票的决策——时,至关重要的是他们要以增加每股内在价值的方式行事,避免采取降低它的行动。这一原则看似显而易见,但我们经常看到它被违反。而当错误配置发生时,股东就会受到伤害。

原文

Intrinsic Value and Capital Allocation

Understanding intrinsic value is as important for managers as it is for investors. When managers are making capital allocation decisions—including decisions to repurchase shares—it’s vital that they act in ways that increase per-share intrinsic value and avoid moves that decrease it. This principle may seem obvious but we constantly see it violated. And, when misallocations occur, shareholders are hurt.

例如,在考虑企业并购时,许多管理者倾向于关注交易是否会立即摊薄或增厚每股收益(或在金融机构中,每股账面价值)。这种关注重心带有巨大风险。回到我们大学教育的例子,想象一下,一个25岁的MBA一年级学生正在考虑将他未来的经济利益与一个25岁的临时工合并。这位没有收入的MBA学生会发现,以”一股换一股”的方式将自己的股权利益与临时工的合并将大幅提升他的近期收益。但对这个学生来说,还有什么比这种交易更愚蠢的呢?

原文

For example, in contemplating business mergers and acquisitions, many managers tend to focus on whether the transaction is immediately dilutive or anti-dilutive to earnings per share (or, at financial institutions, to per-share book value). An emphasis of this sort carries great dangers. Going back to our college-education example, imagine that a 25-year-old first-year MBA student is considering merging his future economic interests with those of a 25-year-old day laborer. The MBA student, a non-earner, would find that a “share-for-share” merger of his equity interest in himself with that of the day laborer would enhance his near-term earnings (in a big way!). But what could be sillier for the student than a deal of this kind?

在企业交易中,当潜在被收购对象具有不同的前景、不同数量的非经营性资产或不同的资本结构时,潜在的收购方关注当前收益同样是愚蠢的。在伯克希尔,我们拒绝了许多会提升当前和近期收益,但会降低每股内在价值的合并和收购机会。相反,我们的方法是遵循韦恩·格雷茨基的建议:“去冰球要去的地方,而不是它现在所在的地方。“结果,我们的股东现在比我们使用标准教条要富有数十亿美元。

原文

In corporate transactions, it’s equally silly for the would-be purchaser to focus on current earnings when the prospective acquiree has either different prospects, different amounts of non-operating assets, or a different capital structure. At Berkshire, we have rejected many merger and purchase opportunities that would have boosted current and near-term earnings but that would have reduced per-share intrinsic value. Our approach, rather, has been to follow Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “Go to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is.” As a result, our shareholders are now many billions of dollars richer than they would have been if we had used the standard catechism.

可悲的事实是,大多数重大收购显示出一种令人震惊的不平衡:它们对收购方的股东来说是横财;它们增加了收购方管理层的收入和地位;它们对投资银行家和双方的其他专业人士来说是蜜罐。但是,唉,它们通常会减少收购方股东的财富,而且往往是大幅减少。这是因为收购方通常放弃的内在价值超过了它获得的价值。如果这样做的次数足够多,正如退休的Wachovia Corp.负责人约翰·梅德林所说,“你就是在经营一个反向的连锁信。”

原文

The sad fact is that most major acquisitions display an egregious imbalance: They are a bonanza for the shareholders of the acquiree; they increase the income and status of the acquirer’s management; and they are a honey pot for the investment bankers and other professionals on both sides. But, alas, they usually reduce the wealth of the acquirer’s shareholders, often to a substantial extent. That happens because the acquirer typically gives up more intrinsic value than it receives. Do that enough, says John Medlin, the retired head of Wachovia Corp., and “you are running a chain letter in reverse.”

随着时间的推移,公司管理者配置资本的技能对企业价值有着巨大影响。几乎从定义上说,一家真正优秀的企业(至少在其早期阶段之后)产生的资金远远超过其内部所能使用的。公司当然可以通过分红或股票回购的方式将资金分配给股东。但CEO经常向战略规划人员、顾问或投资银行家询问进行一项或两项收购是否有意义。这就像问你的室内装饰师是否需要一块5万美元的地毯。

原文

Over time, the skill with which a company’s managers allocate capital has an enormous impact on the enterprise’s value. Almost by definition, a really good business generates far more money (at least after its early years) than it can use internally. The company could, of course, distribute the money to shareholders by way of dividends or share repurchases. But often the CEO asks a strategic planning staff, consultants or investment bankers whether an acquisition or two might make sense. That’s like asking your interior decorator whether you need a $50,000 rug.

收购问题往往因一种生物学偏差而加剧:许多CEO之所以能获得其职位,部分原因是他们拥有充沛的进取精神和自我意识。如果一位高管天生具备这些特质——应该承认,有时这些特质有其优点——它们不会在他达到顶峰时消失。当这样的CEO受到顾问的鼓励去做交易时,他的反应就像一个十几岁的男孩受到父亲鼓励去过正常的性生活。他不需要推动。

原文

The acquisition problem is often compounded by a biological bias: Many CEO’s attain their positions in part because they possess an abundance of animal spirits and ego. If an executive is heavily endowed with these qualities—which, it should be acknowledged, sometimes have their advantages—they won’t disappear when he reaches the top. When such a CEO is encouraged by his advisors to make deals, he responds much as would a teenage boy who is encouraged by his father to have a normal sex life. It’s not a push he needs.

几年前,我的一位CEO朋友——必须说,是在开玩笑——无意中描述了许多大交易的病理。这位朋友经营一家财产险保险公司,他向董事会解释为什么他想收购某家人寿保险公司。在相当不具说服力地冗长阐述了收购的经济和战略理由后,他突然抛开了稿子。带着顽皮的表情,他只是说:“哎,伙计们,其他孩子都有一个。”

原文

Some years back, a CEO friend of mine—in jest, it must be said—unintentionally described the pathology of many big deals. This friend, who ran a property-casualty insurer, was explaining to his directors why he wanted to acquire a certain life insurance company. After droning rather unpersuasively through the economics and strategic rationale for the acquisition, he abruptly abandoned the script. With an impish look, he simply said: “Aw, fellas, all the other kids have one.”

在伯克希尔,我们的管理者将继续从看似普通的企业中获得非凡的回报。作为第一步,这些管理者将寻找方法,将其收益有利地部署在自己的业务中。剩余部分,他们将发送给查理和我。然后,我们将努力以能够建立每股内在价值的方式使用这些资金。我们的目标是收购我们相信能够理解的、具有良好且可持续基本经济特征的、以及由我们喜欢、钦佩和信任的管理者经营的企业的一部分或全部。

原文

At Berkshire, our managers will continue to earn extraordinary returns from what appear to be ordinary businesses. As a first step, these managers will look for ways to deploy their earnings advantageously in their businesses. What’s left, they will send to Charlie and me. We then will try to use those funds in ways that build per-share intrinsic value. Our goal will be to acquire either part or all of businesses that we believe we understand, that have good, sustainable underlying economics, and that are run by managers whom we like, admire and trust.

薪酬

在伯克希尔,我们努力在薪酬方面像在资本配置方面一样理性。例如,我们根据斯科特·费策尔的结果而非伯克希尔的结果来补偿拉尔夫·斯凯。既然他负责一个业务而非另一个,还有什么比这更合理的呢?与伯克希尔命运挂钩的现金奖金或股票期权将为拉尔夫提供完全随意的奖励。例如,他可能在斯科特·费策尔打出全垒打,而查理和我却在伯克希尔犯下错误,从而多次抵消他的努力。相反,如果在伯克希尔的其他部分发生好事而斯科特·费策尔落后,为什么期权利润或奖金应该大量落在拉尔夫身上?

原文

Compensation

At Berkshire, we try to be as logical about compensation as about capital allocation. For example, we compensate Ralph Schey based upon the results of Scott Fetzer rather than those of Berkshire. What could make more sense, since he’s responsible for one operation but not the other? A cash bonus or a stock option tied to the fortunes of Berkshire would provide totally capricious rewards to Ralph. He could, for example, be hitting home runs at Scott Fetzer while Charlie and I rang up mistakes at Berkshire, thereby negating his efforts many times over. Conversely, why should option profits or bonuses be heaped upon Ralph if good things are occurring in other parts of Berkshire but Scott Fetzer is lagging?

在设定薪酬时,我们喜欢许下大胡萝卜的承诺,但确保其发放直接与管理者所控制领域的业绩挂钩。当投资于一项业务的资本数额可观时,我们还会对管理者使用的增量资本收取高利率,并以同样高的利率贷记他们释放的资本。

原文

In setting compensation, we like to hold out the promise of large carrots, but make sure their delivery is tied directly to results in the area that a manager controls. When capital invested in an operation is significant, we also both charge managers a high rate for incremental capital they employ and credit them at an equally high rate for capital they release.

这种”钱不是免费的”方法的成果在斯科特·费策尔显而易见。如果拉尔夫能够以良好的回报使用增量资金,那么这样做对他是有利的:当额外资本的收益超过有意义的门槛费用时,他的奖金就会增加。但我们的奖金计算是对称的:如果增量投资产生低于标准的回报,那么缺口对拉尔夫和伯克希尔来说都是代价高昂的。这种双向安排的结果是,拉尔夫有动力——且报酬丰厚——将他无法有利地用于自己业务的现金送到奥马哈。

原文

The product of this money’s-not-free approach is definitely visible at Scott Fetzer. If Ralph can employ incremental funds at good returns, it pays him to do so: His bonus increases when earnings on additional capital exceed a meaningful hurdle charge. But our bonus calculation is symmetrical: If incremental investment yields sub-standard returns, the shortfall is costly to Ralph as well as to Berkshire. The consequence of this two-way arrangement is that it pays Ralph—and pays him well—to send to Omaha any cash he can’t advantageously use in his business.

在上市公司中,描述几乎所有薪酬计划都将管理层利益与股东利益对齐已成为一种时尚。在我们看来,“对齐”意味着双向的伙伴关系,而不仅仅是上行收益。许多”对齐”计划未能通过这一基本测试,是”正面我赢,反面你输”的巧妙形式。

原文

It has become fashionable at public companies to describe almost every compensation plan as aligning the interests of management with those of shareholders. In our book, alignment means being a partner in both directions, not just on the upside. Many “alignment” plans flunk this basic test, being artful forms of “heads I win, tails you lose.”

一种常见的错位发生在典型的股票期权安排中,它没有定期提高期权价格以补偿留存收益正在积累公司财富的事实。事实上,十年期期权、低股息支付率和复利的结合可以为一位在工作中仅维持原状的管理者提供丰厚的收益。一个愤世嫉俗者甚至可能注意到,当支付给所有者的款项被压低时,持有期权的管理者的利润就会增加。我还没有在请求股东批准期权计划的委托书中看到这个关键点被阐明。

原文

A common form of misalignment occurs in the typical stock option arrangement, which does not periodically increase the option price to compensate for the fact that retained earnings are building up the wealth of the company. Indeed, the combination of a ten-year option, a low dividend payout, and compound interest can provide lush gains to a manager who has done no more than tread water in his job. A cynic might even note that when payments to owners are held down, the profit to the option-holding manager increases. I have yet to see this vital point spelled out in a proxy statement asking shareholders to approve an option plan.

我忍不住要提一下,我们与拉尔夫·斯凯的薪酬安排是在我们收购斯科特·费策尔后立即用大约五分钟敲定的,没有律师或薪酬顾问的”帮助”。这一安排包含了一些非常简单的理念——而不是顾问们偏爱的那种条款,如果他们不能确定你有一个大问题(而且当然是一个需要年度审查的问题),他们就很难开出大额账单。我们与拉尔夫的协议从未改变过。1986年对他和我都有意义,现在仍然如此。我们与所有其他业务单位管理者的薪酬安排同样简单,尽管每个协议的条款因业务的经济特征、某些情况下管理者部分拥有该业务单位等因素而有所不同。

原文

I can’t resist mentioning that our compensation arrangement with Ralph Schey was worked out in about five minutes, immediately upon our purchase of Scott Fetzer and without the “help” of lawyers or compensation consultants. This arrangement embodies a few very simple ideas—not the kind of terms favored by consultants who cannot easily send a large bill unless they have established that you have a large problem (and one, of course, that requires an annual review). Our agreement with Ralph has never been changed. It made sense to him and to me in 1986, and it makes sense now. Our compensation arrangements with the managers of all our other units are similarly simple, though the terms of each agreement vary to fit the economic characteristics of the business at issue, the existence in some cases of partial ownership of the unit by managers, etc.

在所有情况下,我们都追求理性。那些以随意方式支付、与管理者个人成就无关的安排,可能会受到某些管理者的欢迎。毕竟,谁会拒绝一张免费的彩票呢?但这类安排对公司来说是浪费,并导致管理者失去对其真正应关注领域的聚焦。此外,母公司的非理性行为可能会鼓励子公司的效仿行为。

原文

In all instances, we pursue rationality. Arrangements that pay off in capricious ways, unrelated to a manager’s personal accomplishments, may well be welcomed by certain managers. Who, after all, refuses a free lottery ticket? But such arrangements are wasteful to the company and cause the manager to lose focus on what should be his real areas of concern. Additionally, irrational behavior at the parent may well encourage imitative behavior at subsidiaries.

在伯克希尔,只有查理和我拥有整个企业的管理责任。因此,从逻辑上讲,只有我们俩应该根据企业整体的表现获得补偿。即便如此,这也不是我们想要的薪酬安排。我们精心设计了公司和我们的工作,以便我们与喜欢的人一起做我们喜欢的事情。同样重要的是,我们被迫做很少乏味或不愉快的任务。我们还受益于流向公司负责人的大量物质和心理福利。在这种田园诗般的条件下,我们并不期望股东为我们提供我们根本不需要的大量薪酬。

原文

At Berkshire, only Charlie and I have the managerial responsibility for the entire business. Therefore, we are the only parties who should logically be compensated on the basis of what the enterprise does as a whole. Even so, that is not a compensation arrangement we desire. We have carefully designed both the company and our jobs so that we do things we enjoy with people we like. Equally important, we are forced to do very few boring or unpleasant tasks. We are the beneficiaries as well of the abundant array of material and psychic perks that flow to the heads of corporations. Under such idyllic conditions, we don’t expect shareholders to ante up loads of compensation for which we have no possible need.

事实上,即使我们不拿任何报酬,查理和我也会对我们所拥有的轻松工作感到满意。从根本上说,我们赞同罗纳德·里根的信条:“努力工作可能从未杀死过任何人,但我想为什么要冒这个险呢?”

原文

Indeed, if we were not paid at all, Charlie and I would be delighted with the cushy jobs we hold. At bottom, we subscribe to Ronald Reagan’s creed: “It’s probably true that hard work never killed anyone, but I figure why take the chance.”

报告收益来源

下一页的表格显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在此呈现中,我们之前在斯科特·费策尔分析中讨论的那种收购溢价费用没有被分配到其适用的特定业务,而是被汇总并单独显示。此程序使你们能够看到如果我们没有购买这些业务,它们本应报告的收益。在我们看来,这种呈现形式对投资者和管理者来说比使用GAAP更有用,因为GAAP要求收购溢价逐项业务摊销。当然,我们在表格中显示的总收益与经审计财务报表中的GAAP总额相同。

税前收益伯克希尔应占净利润(扣除税项和少数股东权益后)
1994199319941993
(千美元省略)
营业收益:
保险集团:
承保$129,926$ 30,876$ 80,860$ 20,156
净投资收益419,422375,946350,453321,321
布法罗新闻报54,23850,96231,68529,696
Fechheimer14,26013,4427,1076,931
金融业务21,56822,69514,29314,161
Kirby42,34939,14727,71925,056
内布拉斯加家具城17,35621,5408,65210,398
斯科特·费策尔制造集团39,43538,19624,90923,809
喜诗糖果47,53941,15028,24724,367
鞋业集团85,50344,025*55,75028,829
World Book24,66219,91517,27513,537
收购溢价摊销费用(22,595)(17,033)(19,355)(13,996)
利息支出**(60,111)(56,545)(37,264)(35,614)
股东指定捐赠(10,419)(9,448)(6,668)(5,994)
其他36,23228,42822,57615,094
营业收益839,365643,296606,239477,751
证券出售91,332546,42261,138356,702
USAir优先股价值下降(268,500)---(172,579)---
新会计准则引起的税务计提---------(146,332)
所有实体总收益$662,197$1,189,718$494,798$688,121

* 包括Dexter自收购之日(1993年11月7日)起的收益。
** 不包括金融业务的利息支出。

原文

Sources of Reported Earnings

The table on the next page shows the main sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-premium charges of the type we discussed in our earlier analysis of Scott Fetzer are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. This form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing GAAP, which requires purchase premiums to be charged off, business-by-business. The total earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.

Pre-Tax EarningsBerkshire’s Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and minority interests)
1994199319941993
(000s omitted)
Operating Earnings:
Insurance Group:
Underwriting$129,926$ 30,876$ 80,860$ 20,156
Net Investment Income419,422375,946350,453321,321
Buffalo News54,23850,96231,68529,696
Fechheimer14,26013,4427,1076,931
Finance Businesses21,56822,69514,29314,161
Kirby42,34939,14727,71925,056
Nebraska Furniture Mart17,35621,5408,65210,398
Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group39,43538,19624,90923,809
See’s Candies47,53941,15028,24724,367
Shoe Group85,50344,025*55,75028,829
World Book24,66219,91517,27513,537
Purchase-Price Premium Charges(22,595)(17,033)(19,355)(13,996)
Interest Expense**(60,111)(56,545)(37,264)(35,614)
Shareholder-Designated Contributions(10,419)(9,448)(6,668)(5,994)
Other36,23228,42822,57615,094
Operating Earnings839,365643,296606,239477,751
Sales of Securities91,332546,42261,138356,702
Decline in Value of USAir Preferred Stock(268,500)---(172,579)---
Tax Accruals Caused by New Accounting Rules---------(146,332)
Total Earnings — All Entities$662,197$1,189,718$494,798$688,121

* Includes Dexter’s earnings only from the date it was acquired, November 7, 1993.
** Excludes interest expense of Finance Businesses.

关于这些业务的大量信息在第37-48页给出,你们还可以在那里找到按GAAP基础报告的业务分部收益。此外,在第53-59页,我们将伯克希尔的财务数据重新排列为四个分部,采用非GAAP基础,这种呈现方式与查理和我对公司的思考方式一致。我们的目的是向你们提供如果我们角色互换,我们希望你们给我们的财务信息。

原文

A large amount of information about these businesses is given on pages 37-48, where you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. In addition, on pages 53-59, we have rearranged Berkshire’s financial data into four segments on a non-GAAP basis, a presentation that corresponds to the way Charlie and I think about the company. Our intent is to supply you with the financial information that we would wish you to give us if our positions were reversed.

”透视”收益

在过去的报告中,我们讨论过透视收益,我们认为它比我们的GAAP结果更准确地描绘了伯克希尔的收益。根据我们的计算,透视收益包括:(1)上一节报告的营业收益,加上;(2)主要被投资公司未分配的营业收益(这些收益根据GAAP会计原则未反映在我们的利润中),减去;(3)如果这些被投资公司的未分配收益已分配给伯克希尔,伯克希尔本应缴纳的税款准备金。我们在此所说的”营业收益”不包括资本收益、特殊会计项目和重大重组费用。

原文

“Look-Through” Earnings

In past reports, we’ve discussed look-through earnings, which we believe more accurately portray the earnings of Berkshire than does our GAAP result. As we calculate them, look-through earnings consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. The “operating earnings” of which we speak here exclude capital gains, special accounting items and major restructuring charges.

如果我们的内在价值要按15%的目标增长率增长,那么从长期来看,我们的透视收益也必须以大约同样的速度增长。当我几年前首次解释这一概念时,我告诉你们,实现这15%的目标需要我们在2000年之前产生约18亿美元的透视收益。因为此后我们又发行了约3%的股份,这一数字已增至18.5亿美元。

原文

If our intrinsic value is to grow at our target rate of 15%, our look-through earnings, over time, must also increase at about that pace. When I first explained this concept a few years back, I told you that meeting this 15% goal would require us to generate look-through earnings of about $1.8 billion by 2000. Because we’ve since issued about 3% more shares, that figure has grown to $1.85 billion.

我们现在略有提前地实现了目标,但在很大程度上这是因为我们的超级巨灾保险业务最近带来了远超趋势线预期的收益(我将在下一节讨论这一结果)。给予这一异常情况适当权重后,我们仍然预计能够实现目标,但这当然不是确定无疑的。

原文

We are now modestly ahead of schedule in meeting our goal, but to a significant degree that is because our super-cat insurance business has recently delivered earnings far above trend-line expectancy (an outcome I will discuss in the next section). Giving due weight to that abnormality, we still expect to hit our target but that, of course, is no sure thing.

下表展示了我们如何计算透视收益,不过我警告你们,这些数字必然是非常粗略的。(这些被投资公司支付给我们的分红已包含在第12页列出的营业收益中,主要列在”保险集团:净投资收益”项下。)

伯克希尔主要被投资公司伯克希尔年末近似持股比例伯克希尔应占未分配营业收益(单位:百万美元)
1994199319941993
Capital Cities/ABC Inc.13.0%13.0%$ 85$ 83(2)
可口可乐公司7.8%7.2%116(2)94
联邦住宅贷款抵押公司(Freddie Mac)6.3% (1)6.8% (1)47(2)41(2)
Gannett Co., Inc.4.9%---4(2)---
GEICO Corp.50.2%48.4%63(2)76(3)
吉列公司10.8%10.9%5144
PNC Bank Corp.8.3%---10(2)---
华盛顿邮报公司15.2%14.8%1815
富国银行13.3%12.2%7353(2)
伯克希尔应占主要被投资公司未分配收益$492$422
对这些未分配被投资公司收益的假设税(4)(68)(59)
伯克希尔报告营业收益606478
伯克希尔总透视收益$1,030$ 841

(1) 不包括分配给Wesco少数股东权益的股份
(2) 按当年平均持股计算
(3) 不包括已实现资本收益,该等收益既是经常性的也是重大的
(4) 使用的税率为14%,是伯克希尔对其收到的分红所支付的税率

原文

The following table shows how we calculate look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures are necessarily very rough. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 12, mostly under “Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.”)

Berkshire’s Major InvesteesBerkshire’s Approximate Ownership at YearendBerkshire’s Share of Undistributed Operating Earnings (in millions)
1994199319941993
5.5%2.4%$  25(2)$ 16
Capital Cities/ABC Inc.13.0%13.0%8583(2)
The Coca-Cola Company7.8%7.2%116(2)94
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp.6.3%(1)6.8%(1)47(2)41(2)
Gannett Co., Inc.4.9%---4(2)---
GEICO Corp.50.2%48.4%63(2)76(3)
The Gillette Company10.8%10.9%5144
PNC Bank Corp.8.3%---10(2)---
The Washington Post Company15.2%14.8%1815
Wells Fargo & Company13.3%12.2%7353(2)
Berkshire’s share of undistributed earnings of major investees$492$422
Hypothetical tax on these undistributed investee earnings(4)(68)(59)
Reported operating earnings of Berkshire606478
Total look-through earnings of Berkshire$1,030$ 841

(1)     Does not include shares allocable to the minority interest at Wesco
(2)     Calculated on average ownership for the year
(3)     Excludes realized capital gains, which have been both recurring and significant
(4)     The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on the dividends it receives

保险业务

正如我们在过去的报告中解释过的,我们保险业务的关键在于,首先是我们产生的”浮存金”金额,其次是它的成本。浮存金是我们持有但不拥有的资金。在保险业务中,浮存金产生是因为大多数保单要求预付保费,更重要的是,因为保险公司通常需要时间来了解并解决理赔申请。

原文

Insurance Operations

As we’ve explained in past reports, what counts in our insurance business is, first, the amount of “float” we develop and, second, its cost to us. Float is money we hold but don’t own. In an insurance operation, float arises because most policies require that premiums be prepaid and, more importantly, because it usually takes time for an insurer to hear about and resolve loss claims.

通常情况下,保险公司收取的保费不足以覆盖其必须支付的损失和费用。这就导致了”承保损失”——而这个损失就是浮存金的成本。

原文

Typically, the premiums that an insurer takes in do not cover the losses and expenses it must pay. That leaves it running an “underwriting loss”—and that loss is the cost of float.

如果浮存金的成本低于公司以其他方式获取资金的成本,那么保险业务从长期来看是有利可图的。但如果浮存金的成本高于市场利率,那么这项业务就具有负面价值。

原文

An insurance business is profitable over time if its cost of float is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business has a negative value if the cost of its float is higher than market rates for money.

如下表所示,伯克希尔的保险业务是一个巨大的赢家。在表格中,我们通过加总损失准备金、损失调整准备金、已承担再保险项下持有的资金和未赚保费准备金,然后减去代理人余额、预付取得成本、预付税款和适用于已承担再保险的递延费用,编制了我们的浮存金(相对于我们的保费规模,我们产生的浮存金数额异常巨大)。我们的浮存金成本由我们的承保损失或利润决定。在我们有承保利润的年份,比如过去两年,我们的浮存金成本为负,我们通过将承保利润加到浮存金收益中来确定我们的保险收益。

年份(1) 承保损失(2) 平均浮存金近似资金成本 (1)/(2)比率长期政府债券年末收益率
(单位:百万美元)
1967盈利$17.3低于零5.50%
1968盈利19.9低于零5.90%
1969盈利23.4低于零6.79%
1970$ 0.3732.41.14%6.25%
1971盈利52.5低于零5.81%
1972盈利69.

以下是1994年伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司致股东信的续篇翻译与原文对照。

美国航空的首席执行官塞思·斯科菲尔德一直勤勉工作,试图解决公司历史性的成本问题,但至今未能成功。部分原因在于他不得不应对一个不断变化的目标——一些主要航空公司获得了劳工让步,而其他航空公司则从破产程序中受益,获得了“重新开始”的成本优势。(正如西南航空首席执行官赫布·凯莱赫所说:“航空公司的破产法庭已经变成了一个健康疗养院。”)此外,毫不奇怪的是,那些合同约定薪酬高于市场水平的航空公司员工,只要他们的支票还能兑现,就会抵制任何减薪。

原文

Seth Schofield, CEO of USAir, has worked diligently to correct the company’s historical cost problems but, to date, has not managed to do so. In part, this is because he has had to deal with a moving target, the result of certain major carriers having obtained labor concessions and other carriers having benefitted from “fresh-start” costs that came out of bankruptcy proceedings. (As Herb Kelleher, CEO of Southwest Airlines, has said: “Bankruptcy court for airlines has become a health spa.”) Additionally, it should be no surprise to anyone that those airline employees who contractually receive above-market salaries will resist any reduction in these as long as their checks continue to clear.

尽管处境艰难,美国航空仍有可能实现维持长期生存所需的成本削减。但这种情况远非确定会发生。

原文

Despite this difficult situation, USAir may yet achieve the cost reductions it needs to maintain its viability long-term. But it is far from sure that will happen.

因此,我们将对美国航空的投资账面价值减记至8950万美元,即1994年底每1美元投资仅值25美分。这一估值既反映了我们的优先股价值可能全部或大部分恢复的可能性,也反映了相反的可能性——该股票最终可能变得一文不值。无论结果如何,我们将遵循一条首要的投资原则:你不需要以你亏损的方式赚回来。

原文

Accordingly, we wrote our USAir investment down to $89.5 million, 25 cents on the dollar at yearend 1994. This valuation reflects both a possibility that our preferred will have its value fully or largely restored and an opposite possibility that the stock will eventually become worthless. Whatever the outcome, we will heed a prime rule of investing: You don’t have to make it back the way that you lost it.

我们对美国航空投资减值的会计处理比较复杂。根据公认会计原则,保险公司必须将所有股票按估计市场价值计入资产负债表。因此,在去年第三季度末,我们已将美国航空优先股按8950万美元入账,仅为成本的25%。换句话说,当时我们的净资产已经反映了美国航空价值远低于我们3.58亿美元成本的情况。

原文

The accounting effects of our USAir writedown are complicated. Under GAAP accounting, insurance companies are required to carry all stocks on their balance sheets at estimated market value. Therefore, at the end of last year’s third quarter, we were carrying our USAir preferred at $89.5 million, or 25% of cost. In other words, our net worth was at that time reflecting a value for USAir that was far below our $358 million cost.

但在第四季度,我们得出结论,这种价值下跌在会计术语上是“非暂时性”的,这一判断要求我们将2.69亿美元的减值计入损益表。这笔金额不会对第四季度的其他方面产生任何影响。也就是说,它不会减少我们的净资产,因为价值减损已经反映在之前的净资产中了。

原文

But in the fourth quarter, we concluded that the decline in value was, in accounting terms, “other than temporary,” and that judgment required us to send the writedown of $269 million through our income statement. The amount will have no other fourth-quarter effect. That is, it will not reduce our net worth, because the diminution of value had already been reflected.

查理和我在即将召开的股东年会上将不再寻求连任美国航空的董事。但如果塞思希望与我们协商,我们将乐意尽我们所能提供帮助。

原文

Charlie and I will not stand for reelection to USAir’s board at the upcoming annual meeting. Should Seth wish to consult with us, however, we will be pleased to be of any help that we can.

其他事项

两位为伯克希尔股东做出巨大贡献的首席执行官于去年退休:资本城市/ABC公司的丹·伯克和富国银行的卡尔·赖卡特。近年来,丹和卡尔都遇到了非常严峻的行业环境。但他们作为管理者的技能,使得他们经营的企业在这些时期脱颖而出,创下了创纪录的盈利,增添了光彩,并拥有了光明的前景。此外,丹和卡尔为他们的离职做了充分准备,将公司交给了杰出的人选。我们对他们心怀感激。

原文

Miscellaneous

Two CEO’s who have done great things for Berkshire shareholders retired last year: Dan Burke of Capital Cities/ABC and Carl Reichardt of Wells Fargo. Dan and Carl encountered very tough industry conditions in recent years. But their skill as managers allowed the businesses they ran to emerge from these periods with record earnings, added luster, and bright prospects. Additionally, Dan and Carl prepared well for their departure and left their companies in outstanding hands. We owe them our gratitude.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

在伯克希尔1994年的股东指定捐赠计划中,约有95.7%的合格股份参与了该计划。通过该计划捐赠的金额为1040万美元,共有3300家慈善机构成为受益方。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

About 95.7% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire’s 1994 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made through the program were $10.4 million and 3,300 charities were recipients.

每年都有少数股东错过参与该计划,原因是在规定的登记日,他们的股票没有以自己名义登记,或者未能在允许的60天期限内将指定表格返还给我们。由于在条件未满足时我们不会破例,我们敦促新旧股东仔细阅读第50-51页关于股东指定捐赠计划的描述。

原文

 Every year a few shareholders miss participating in the program because they either do not have their shares registered in their own names on the prescribed record date or because they fail to get the designation form back to us within the 60-day period allowed for its return. Since we don’t make exceptions when requirements aren’t met, we urge that both new shareholders and old read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 50-51.

要参与未来的计划,您必须确保您的股票以实际所有人的名义登记,而不是以经纪商、银行或存管机构的代名人名义登记。未能在1995年8月31日如此登记的股票,将没有资格参与1995年的计划。

原文

To participate in future programs, you must make sure your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 1995 will be ineligible for the 1995 program.

 * * * * * * * * * * * *

在1994年,我们只进行了一项小型收购——一家小型零售鞋业连锁店——但我们对寻找优秀收购目标的兴趣一如既往地浓厚。我们用于收购或合并的标准详见第21页的附录。

原文

 * * * * * * * * * * * *

We made only one minor acquisition during 1994—a small retail shoe chain—but our interest in finding good candidates remains as keen as ever. The criteria we employ for purchases or mergers is detailed in the appendix on page 21.

去年春天,我们提出了一项合并要约,对象是一家大型家族控制企业,条件包括发行伯克希尔的可转换优先股。尽管我们未能达成协议,但这次经历让我意识到,我们需要请求股东授权优先股,以便我们未来在出现类似收购机会时能够迅速行动。因此,我们的代理声明中提出了一项提案,请求您授权大量优先股,由董事会决定发行条款。请放心,查理和我会在完全确信我们所获得的内在价值与我们付出的对等时,才会使用这些股份。

原文

Last spring, we offered to merge with a large, family-controlled business on terms that included a Berkshire convertible preferred stock. Though we failed to reach an agreement, this episode made me realize that we needed to ask our shareholders to authorize preferred shares in case we wanted in the future to move quickly if a similar acquisition opportunity were to appear. Accordingly, our proxy presents a proposal that you authorize a large amount of preferred stock, which will be issuable on terms set by the Board of Directors. You can be sure that Charlie and I will not use these shares without being completely satisfied that we are receiving as much in intrinsic value as we are giving.

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查理和我希望您能来参加年会——地点将在一个新场所。去年,我们略微超出了奥菲姆剧院2750个座位的容量,因此我们将于1995年5月1日星期一上午9:30在假日会议中心集合。该中心的主宴会厅可容纳3300人,如果必要,我们将在相邻的房间配备音视频设备,再容纳1000人。

原文

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Charlie and I hope you can come to the Annual Meeting—at a new site. Last year, we slightly overran the Orpheum Theater’s seating capacity of 2,750, and therefore we will assemble at 9:30 a.m. on Monday, May 1, 1995, at the Holiday Convention Centre. The main ballroom at the Centre can handle 3,300, and if need be, we will have audio and video equipment in an adjacent room capable of handling another 1,000 people.

去年我们在会上展示了一些伯克希尔的商品,并因此卖出了约800磅糖果、507双鞋,以及超过12000美元的《世界百科全书》及相关出版物。所有这些商品今年也将有售。尽管我们喜欢将年会视为一种精神体验,但我们必须要记住,即使是最不世俗的宗教,也包括了募捐盘这一仪式。

原文

Last year we displayed some of Berkshire’s products at the meeting, and as a result sold about 800 pounds of candy, 507 pairs of shoes, and over $12,000 of World Books and related publications. All these goods will be available again this year. Though we like to think of the meeting as a spiritual experience, we must remember that even the least secular of religions includes the ritual of the collection plate.

当然,您真正应该购买的是一盘1995年橘子碗比赛的录像带。您的主席每晚都会观看这场经典比赛,并在第四节切换到慢动作。今年我们的封面颜色是向内布拉斯加大学的橄榄球教练汤姆·奥斯本和他的玉米收割者队致敬,他们是全国顶尖的大学球队。我恳请您身着玉米收割者队的红色参加年会,并向您保证,我们管理二人组中至少有50%会穿着合适的服装。

原文

Of course, what you really should be purchasing is a video tape of the 1995 Orange Bowl. Your Chairman views this classic nightly, switching to slow motion for the fourth quarter. Our cover color this year is a salute to Nebraska’s football coach, Tom Osborne, and his Cornhuskers, the country’s top college team. I urge you to wear Husker red to the annual meeting and promise you that at least 50% of your managerial duo will be in appropriate attire.

我们建议您立即预订会议酒店,因为我们预计参会人数会很多。如果您喜欢住在市中心(距会议中心约6英里),您可以选择雷迪森雷迪克塔酒店(小而精,仅88个房间),或者几个街区外更大的红狮酒店。在会议中心附近,有假日酒店(403间客房)、希尔顿惠庭套房酒店(118间客房)和汉普顿酒店(136间客房)。另一个推荐地点是万豪酒店,位于奥马哈西部,距离波仙珠宝店约100码,距会议中心十分钟车程。万豪酒店将有巴士在8:45和9:00出发前往会议,并在会议结束后返回。

原文

We recommend that you promptly get hotel reservations for the meeting, as we expect a large crowd. Those of you who like to be downtown (about six miles from the Centre) may wish to stay at the Radisson Redick Tower, a small (88 rooms) but nice hotel or at the much larger Red Lion Hotel a few blocks away. In the vicinity of the Centre are the Holiday Inn (403 rooms), Homewood Suites (118 rooms) and Hampton Inn (136 rooms). Another recommended spot is the Marriott, whose west Omaha location is about 100 yards from Borsheim’s and a ten-minute drive from the Centre. There will be buses at the Marriott that will leave at 8:45 and 9:00 for the meeting and return after it ends.

代理材料中的附件说明了如何获取您入场所需的证件。会议中心有充裕的停车位,而住在假日酒店、希尔顿惠庭套房酒店和汉普顿酒店的股东可步行前往会场。

原文

An attachment to our proxy material explains how you can obtain the card you will need for admission to the meeting. A good-sized parking area is available at the Centre, while those who stay at the Holiday Inn, Homewood Suites and Hampton Inn will be able to walk to the meeting.

和往常一样,会议结束后我们将安排巴士送您前往内布拉斯加家具城和波仙珠宝店,之后再将您从那里送往酒店或机场。我希望您能特别抽出时间参观内布拉斯加家具城,因为它新开设了“超级市场”,一个真正的零售奇迹,销售电子产品、家电、电脑、CD、相机和音响设备。自开业以来,销售情况异常火爆,您会对那里提供的商品种类以及它们的陈列方式感到惊叹。

原文

As usual, we will have buses to take you to the Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheim’s after the meeting and to take you from there to hotels or the airport later. I hope you make a special effort to visit the Nebraska Furniture Mart because it has opened the Mega Mart, a true retailing marvel that sells electronics, appliances, computers, CD’s, cameras and audio equipment. Sales have been sensational since the opening, and you will be amazed by both the variety of products available and their display on the floor.

超级市场毗邻内布拉斯加家具城主店,位于我们占地64英亩的场地上,距会议中心以北约两英里。商店的营业时间是周五上午10点至晚上9点,周六上午10点至下午6点,周日中午12点至下午6点。当您在那里时,一定要向B夫人问好,她101岁高龄,仍在我们B夫人仓库辛勤工作。她一天也不错过上班时间——甚至一个小时也不会。

原文

The Mega Mart, adjacent to NFM’s main store, is on our 64-acre site about two miles north of the Centre. The stores are open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Fridays, 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays and noon to 6 p.m. on Sundays. When you’re there be sure to say hello to Mrs. B, who, at 101, will be hard at work in our Mrs. B’s Warehouse. She never misses a day at the store—or, for that matter, an hour.

波仙珠宝店通常周日不营业,但将为股东及其嘉宾在周日中午12点至下午6点特别开放。这总是一个特殊的日子,我们会尽力准备一些惊喜。通常这是全年销售额最高的一天,所以出于不止一个原因,查理和我都希望在那里见到您。

原文

Borsheim’s normally is closed on Sunday but will be open for shareholders and their guests from noon to 6 p.m. on Sunday. This is always a special day, and we will try to have a few surprises. Usually this is the biggest sales day of the year, so for more reasons than one Charlie and I hope to see you there.

4月29日周六晚上,罗森布拉特体育场将举行一场棒球比赛,对阵双方是奥马哈皇家队和布法罗野牛队。布法罗队由我的朋友明迪和小鲍勃·里奇拥有,我希望他们能出席。如果这样的话,我会试着引诱鲍勃在投手丘上进行一场一球决胜负的较量。鲍勃是一个资本家版的兰迪·约翰逊——年轻、强壮、有运动天赋——不是你在赛季初就想面对的那种投手。所以我需要大量的呼声支持。

原文

On Saturday evening, April 29, there will be a baseball game at Rosenblatt Stadium between the Omaha Royals and the Buffalo Bisons. The Buffalo team is owned by my friends, Mindy and Bob Rich, Jr., and I’m hoping they will attend. If so, I will try to entice Bob into a one-pitch duel on the mound. Bob is a capitalist’s Randy Johnson—young, strong and athletic—and not the sort of fellow you want to face early in the season. So I will need plenty of vocal support.

代理声明中将包含获取比赛门票的信息。去年约有1400名股东参加了这项活动。那晚为比赛开球时,我状态不错,投出了一个好球,记分牌显示时速八英里。许多球迷错过的是,我没有听从捕手要求投快速球的指示,而是投出了我的变速球。今年,我将全力投出火球。

原文

The proxy statement will include information about obtaining tickets to the game. About 1,400 shareholders attended the event last year. Opening the game that night, I had my stuff and threw a strike that the scoreboard reported at eight miles per hour. What many fans missed was that I shook off the catcher’s call for my fast ball and instead delivered my change-up. This year it will be all smoke.

1995年3月7日

沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席

原文

March 7, 1995

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board

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