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1998年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的信

第一部分

我们的净值在1998年增加了259亿美元,使A股和B股的每股账面价值增长了48.3%。在过去34年里(即自现任管理层接管以来),每股账面价值从19美元增长到37,801美元,年复合增长率为24.7%。※

原文

Title: 1998 Letter

Part 1/2

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our gain in net worth during 1998 was $25.9 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 48.3%. Over the last 34 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $37,801, a rate of 24.7% compounded annually.*

※ 本报告中所有数据均适用于伯克希尔A股,该股票是公司在1996年之前唯一发行在外的股票的继承者。B股的经济权益相当于A股的三十分之一。

原文

* All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.

通常情况下,48.3%的增长率会让人喜不自胜——但今年并非如此。还记得瓦格纳吗?有人形容他的音乐”听起来比实际更好听”。嗯,伯克希尔在1998年的进步——虽然令人满意——但并没有看起来那么好。这是因为48.3%的增长大部分来自我们在收购中发行的股票。

原文

Normally, a gain of 48.3% would call for handsprings — but not this year. Remember Wagner, whose music has been described as better than it sounds? Well, Berkshire’s progress in 1998 — though more than satisfactory — was not as good as it looks. That’s because most of that 48.3% gain came from our issuing shares in acquisitions.

解释一下:我们的股票以高于账面价值的大幅溢价交易,这意味着我们发行的任何股票——无论是为了现金还是作为并购的对价——都会立即增加我们的每股账面价值,即使我们一分钱都没赚到。实际情况是,我们在这些交易中获得的每股账面价值多于我们放弃的。然而,这些交易并没有给我们带来每股内在价值的即时收益,因为在这方面,我们付出的和得到的大致相等。正如查理·芒格(伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人)和我反复强调的那样(尽管你可能觉得我们说得太多了),重要的是每股内在价值的增长,而不是每股账面价值的增长。

原文

To explain: Our stock sells at a large premium over book value, which means that any issuing of shares we do — whether for cash or as consideration in a merger — instantly increases our per-share book-value figure, even though we’ve earned not a dime. What happens is that we get more per-share book value in such transactions than we give up. These transactions, however, do not deliver us any immediate gain in per-share intrinsic value, because in this respect what we give and what we get are roughly equal. And, as Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner, and I can’t tell you too often (though you may feel that we try), it’s the per-share gain in intrinsic value that counts rather than the per-share gain in book value.

尽管伯克希尔的内在价值在1998年大幅增长,但增幅远低于账面价值记录的48.3%。尽管如此,内在价值仍然远高于账面价值。(有关这些术语以及其他投资和会计概念的更详细讨论,请参阅我们的《所有者手册》(第56-64页),其中阐述了我们的所有者相关经营原则。内在价值在第61-62页讨论。)

原文

Though Berkshire’s intrinsic value grew very substantially in 1998, the gain fell well short of the 48.3% recorded for book value. Nevertheless, intrinsic value still far exceeds book value. (For a more extensive discussion of these terms, and other investment and accounting concepts, please refer to our Owner’s Manual, on pages 56-64, in which we set forth our owner-related business principles. Intrinsic value is discussed on pages 61 and 62.)

我们以历史上最好的企业和经理人阵容进入1999年。我们在1998年收购的两家公司——通用再保险和Executive Jet——在各方面都是一流的(稍后将详细介绍),我们运营企业的表现超出了我的期望。GEICO再次大放异彩。在不利方面,我们持有重大投资的几家上市公司经历了显著的运营亏损,这些亏损在年初时连它们自己和我都没有预料到。因此,我们的股权投资组合表现远不如标普500指数。这些公司的问题几乎肯定是暂时的,查理和我相信它们的长期前景非常出色。

原文

We entered 1999 with the best collection of businesses and managers in our history. The two companies we acquired in 1998, General Re and Executive Jet, are first-class in every way — more about both later — and the performance of our operating businesses last year exceeded my hopes. GEICO, once again, simply shot the lights out. On the minus side, several of the public companies in which we have major investments experienced significant operating shortfalls that neither they nor I anticipated early in the year. Consequently, our equity portfolio did not perform nearly as well as did the S&P 500. The problems of these companies are almost certainly temporary, and Charlie and I believe that their long-term prospects are excellent.

在最近三年的年度报告中,我们提供了一张我们认为对评估伯克希尔内在价值至关重要的表格。在下面的更新版本中,我们追溯了我们的两个关键价值组成部分,其中包括通用再保险,如同我们全年都拥有它一样。第一列列出了我们每股投资的所有权(包括现金及等价物,但不包括金融产品业务中持有的证券),第二列显示了伯克希尔运营业务在税前及购买会计调整(在第62-63页讨论)之前、但扣除所有利息和公司费用后的每股收益。第二列排除了第一列所列投资产生的所有股息、利息和资本收益。实际上,这些列展示了如果伯克希尔被分成两部分时的样子:一个实体持有我们的投资,另一个实体运营我们所有业务并承担所有公司费用。

年份每股投资每股税前收益(排除所有投资收入)
1968$ 53$ 2.87
197846512.85
19884,876145.77
199847,647474.45
原文

In our last three annual reports, we furnished you a table that we regard as central to estimating Berkshire’s intrinsic value. In the updated version of that table, which follows, we trace our two key components of value, including General Re on a pro-forma basis as if we had owned it throughout the year. The first column lists our per-share ownership of investments (including cash and equivalents but excluding securities held in our financial products operation) and the second column shows our per-share earnings from Berkshire’s operating businesses before taxes and purchase-accounting adjustments (discussed on pages 62 and 63), but after all interest and corporate expenses. The second column excludes all dividends, interest and capital gains that we realized from the investments presented in the first column. In effect, the columns show how Berkshire would look if it were split into two parts, with one entity holding our investments and the other operating all of our businesses and bearing all corporate costs.

YearInvestments Per SharePre-tax Earnings Per Share With All Income from Investments Excluded
1968$ 53$ 2.87
197846512.85
19884,876145.77
199847,647474.45

以下是两个板块按十年计算的增长率:

截至年份每股投资每股税前收益(排除所有投资收入)
197824.2%16.2%
198826.5%27.5%
199825.6%12.5%
1968-1998年增长率25.4%18.6%
原文

Here are the growth rates of the two segments by decade:

Decade EndingInvestments Per SharePre-tax Earnings Per Share With All Income from Investments Excluded
197824.2%16.2%
198826.5%27.5%
199825.6%12.5%
Annual Growth Rate, 1968-199825.4%18.6%

1998年,我们的投资每股增加了9,604美元,增长25.2%,但每股运营收益下降了33.9%。通用再保险(如上所述,按备考基础计算)解释了这两个事实。这家公司拥有非常庞大的投资,这大大增加了我们的每股投资数字。但通用再保险在1998年也出现了承保亏损,这拖累了运营收益。如果我们没有收购通用再保险,每股运营收益会略有增长。

原文

During 1998, our investments increased by $9,604 per share, or 25.2%, but per-share operating earnings fell by 33.9%. General Re (included, as noted, on a pro-forma basis) explains both facts. This company has very large investments, and these greatly increased our per-share investment figure. But General Re also had an underwriting loss in 1998, and that hurt operating earnings. Had we not acquired General Re, per-share operating earnings would have shown a modest gain.

尽管我们的某些收购和运营策略有时可能会对某一列的影响大于另一列,但我们持续致力于增加两列的数字。但有一件事是确定的:我们未来的增长率将远低于过去。伯克希尔的资本基础现在已经太大,无法让我们获得真正超额的回报。如果你不这么认为,你应该考虑从事销售职业,但避免从事数学工作(请记住,世界上实际上只有三种人:会数数的和不会数数的)。

原文

Though certain of our acquisitions and operating strategies may from time to time affect one column more than the other, we continually work to increase the figures in both. But one thing is certain: Our future rates of gain will fall far short of those achieved in the past. Berkshire’s capital base is now simply too large to allow us to earn truly outsized returns. If you believe otherwise, you should consider a career in sales but avoid one in mathematics (bearing in mind that there are really only three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can’t).

目前我们正在致力于让574亿美元的净值实现复利增长,这是美国公司中最大的净值(不过如果埃克森和美孚合并,我们的数字将被超越)。当然,我们在净值上的领先地位并不意味着伯克希尔在所有企业中价值最高:对所有者来说,市场价值才是关键,例如通用电气和微软的估值是伯克希尔的三倍以上。然而,净值衡量的是管理者必须配置的资本,而在伯克希尔,这个数字确实已经变得非常庞大。

原文

Currently we are working to compound a net worth of $57.4 billion, the largest of any American corporation (though our figure will be eclipsed if the merger of Exxon and Mobil takes place). Of course, our lead in net worth does not mean that Berkshire outranks all other businesses in value: Market value is what counts for owners and General Electric and Microsoft, for example, have valuations more than three times Berkshire’s. Net worth, though, measures the capital that managers must deploy, and at Berkshire that figure has indeed become huge.

尽管如此,查理和我将尽最大努力在未来使内在价值以15%的平均速度增长,我们认为这是最理想的结果上限。我们可能会有超过15%的年份,但也肯定会有远远低于这个数字的年份——甚至包括负回报的年份——这些年份会拉低我们的平均水平。与此同时,你应该理解未来五年平均增长15%意味着什么:这意味着我们需要将净值增加580亿美元。要实现这个令人生畏的15%的增长,我们需要想出大主意:爆米花摊位是不够的。今天的市场对我们寻找”大象”并不友好,但你可以放心,我们会专注于狩猎。

原文

Nonetheless, Charlie and I will do our best to increase intrinsic value in the future at an average rate of 15%, a result we consider to be at the very peak of possible outcomes. We may have years when we exceed 15%, but we will most certainly have other years when we fall far short of that — including years showing negative returns — and those will bring our average down. In the meantime, you should understand just what an average gain of 15% over the next five years implies: It means we will need to increase net worth by $58 billion. Earning this daunting 15% will require us to come up with big ideas: Popcorn stands just won’t do. Today’s markets are not friendly to our search for “elephants,” but you can be sure that we will stay focused on the hunt.

无论未来如何,我向你保证:只要我在世,我将至少把99%的净资产保留在伯克希尔。这会持续多久?我的榜样是韦恩堡那位忠诚的民主党人,他要求葬在芝加哥以便能继续参与党内活动。为此,我已经在办公室为我的骨灰盒选好了一个”能量位置”。

原文

Whatever the future holds, I make you one promise: I’ll keep at least 99% of my net worth in Berkshire for as long as I am around. How long will that be? My model is the loyal Democrat in Fort Wayne who asked to be buried in Chicago so that he could stay active in the party. To that end, I’ve already selected a “power spot” at the office for my urn.


我们的财务增长与员工增长同步:我们现在有47,566名员工,1998年的收购带来了7,074名员工,内部增长又增加了2,500名。为了平衡这9,500名实际员工的增加,我们将总部员工从12人扩大到12.8人。(0.8指的不是我或查理:我们会计部门新添了一名每周工作四天的人员。)尽管存在这种令人担忧的公司臃肿趋势,我们去年的税后管理费用约为350万美元,远低于我们管理的资产价值的一个基点(0.01%)。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Our financial growth has been matched by employment growth: We now have 47,566 on our payroll, with the acquisitions of 1998 bringing 7,074 employees to us and internal growth adding another 2,500. To balance this gain of 9,500 in hands-on employees, we have enlarged the staff at world headquarters from 12 to 12.8. (The .8 doesn’t refer to me or Charlie: We have a new person in accounting, working four days a week.) Despite this alarming trend toward corporate bloat, our after-tax overhead last year was about $3.5 million, or well under one basis point (.01 of 1%) of the value of the assets we manage.

税收

我们规模增长的一个受益者是美国财政部。伯克希尔和通用再保险就1998年收益已支付或即将支付的联邦所得税总额为27亿美元。这意味着我们承担了美国政府超过半天的全部开支。

原文

Taxes

One beneficiary of our increased size has been the U.S. Treasury. The federal income taxes that Berkshire and General Re have paid, or will soon pay, in respect to 1998 earnings total $2.7 billion. That means we shouldered all of the U.S. Government’s expenses for more than a half-day.

进一步思考:如果只有另外625名美国纳税人向财政部缴纳了与我们和通用再保险去年一样多的税款,那么其他任何人——无论是企业还是2.7亿公民——都不需要缴纳联邦所得税或任何其他形式的联邦税(例如社会保障税或遗产税)。我们的股东可以真诚地说,他们”在办公室已经捐过了”。

原文

Follow that thought a little further: If only 625 other U.S. taxpayers had paid the Treasury as much as we and General Re did last year, no one else — neither corporations nor 270 million citizens — would have had to pay federal income taxes or any other kind of federal tax (for example, social security or estate taxes). Our shareholders can truly say that they “gave at the office.”

给国税局开具包含一连串零的支票并不会让查理或我感到困扰。伯克希尔作为一家公司,我们作为个人,在美国取得了在其他任何国家都无法取得的繁荣。事实上,如果我们生活在世界其他地方并且完全逃税,我确信我们在财务上(以及其他许多方面)会变得更糟。总的来说,我们感到异常幸运,生命中拿到了一手好牌,使我们能够向政府开出大额支票,而不是需要政府定期向我们开具支票——比如,因为我们残疾或失业。

原文

Writing checks to the IRS that include strings of zeros does not bother Charlie or me. Berkshire as a corporation, and we as individuals, have prospered in America as we would have in no other country. Indeed, if we lived in some other part of the world and completely escaped taxes, I’m sure we would be worse off financially (and in many other ways as well). Overall, we feel extraordinarily lucky to have been dealt a hand in life that enables us to write large checks to the government rather than one requiring the government to regularly write checks to us — say, because we are disabled or unemployed.

伯克希尔的税务状况有时会被误解。首先,资本利得对我们没有特殊吸引力:公司对应税收入缴纳35%的税率,无论收入来自资本利得还是日常运营。这意味着伯克希尔对长期资本利得所缴纳的税款比个人对相同利得缴纳的税款高出整整75%。

原文

Berkshire’s tax situation is sometimes misunderstood. First, capital gains have no special attraction for us: A corporation pays a 35% rate on taxable income, whether it comes from capital gains or from ordinary operations. This means that Berkshire’s tax on a long-term capital gain is fully 75% higher than what an individual would pay on an identical gain.

有些人还持有另一种误解,认为我们可以将收到股息的70%从应税收入中排除。确实,70%的比率适用于大多数公司,也适用于伯克希尔持有非保险子公司股票的情况。然而,我们的股权投资几乎全部由保险公司持有,在这种情况下,排除比例为59.5%。这仍然意味着一美元的股息对我们来说比一美元的普通收入更有价值,但并不像通常假设的那样程度。

原文

Some people harbor another misconception, believing that we can exclude 70% of all dividends we receive from our taxable income. Indeed, the 70% rate applies to most corporations and also applies to Berkshire in cases where we hold stocks in non-insurance subsidiaries. However, almost all of our equity investments are owned by our insurance companies, and in that case the exclusion is 59.5%. That still means a dollar of dividends is considerably more valuable to us than a dollar of ordinary income, but not to the degree often assumed.


伯克希尔去年对财政部的贡献确实全力以赴。在与通用再保险合并相关的事务中,我们向政府开出了一张3000万美元的支票,以支付与交易中创建的新股相关的SEC费用。我们了解到,这次支付创下了SEC纪录。查理和我非常钦佩委员会为美国投资者所取得的成就。然而,我们本希望用其他方式来表达我们的钦佩。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Berkshire truly went all out for the Treasury last year. In connection with the General Re merger, we wrote a $30 million check to the government to pay an SEC fee tied to the new shares created by the deal. We understand that this payment set an SEC record. Charlie and I are enormous admirers of what the Commission has accomplished for American investors. We would rather, however, have found another way to show our admiration.

GEICO(1-800-847-7536)

将绝妙的想法与杰出的经理人结合,你一定会获得出色的结果。这种组合在GEICO生机勃勃。这个想法是通过直接面向客户的营销实现低成本汽车保险,而经理人是托尼·奈斯利。简单来说,商界没有人能比托尼把GEICO经营得更好。他的直觉准确无误,精力无穷无尽,执行完美无瑕。在保持承保纪律的同时,托尼正在建立一个以加速增长的市场份额的组织。

原文

GEICO (1-800-847-7536)

Combine a great idea with a great manager and you’re certain to obtain a great result. That mix is alive and well at GEICO. The idea is low-cost auto insurance, made possible by direct-to-customer marketing, and the manager is Tony Nicely. Quite simply, there is no one in the business world who could run GEICO better than Tony does. His instincts are unerring, his energy is boundless, and his execution is flawless. While maintaining underwriting discipline, Tony is building an organization that is gaining market share at an accelerating rate.

我们的薪酬政策鼓励了这种节奏。直接承保——即保险公司与保单持有人之间没有代理人或经纪人——涉及大量的前期投入。因此,第一年的业务在很大程度上有亏损。在GEICO,我们不希望这种成本阻止我们的员工积极追求新业务——因为随着续保,这些业务将带来可观的利润——所以我们将其排除在薪酬计算公式之外。那么计算中包括什么呢?我们将员工奖金和利润分享的50%基于”成熟”保单的收益,即与我们合作超过一年的保单。另外50%与保单持有人的增长挂钩——而在这方面我们踩下了油门。

原文

This pace has been encouraged by our compensation policies. The direct writing of insurance — that is, without there being an agent or broker between the insurer and its policyholder — involves a substantial front-end investment. First-year business is therefore unprofitable in a major way. At GEICO, we do not wish this cost to deter our associates from the aggressive pursuit of new business — which, as it renews, will deliver significant profits — so we leave it out of our compensation formulas. What’s included then? We base 50% of our associates’ bonuses and profit sharing on the earnings of our “seasoned” book, meaning policies that have been with us for more than a year. The other 50% is tied to growth in policyholders — and here we have stepped on the gas.

1995年,在被伯克希尔收购的前一年,GEICO在营销上花费了3300万美元,拥有652名电话顾问。去年,公司花费了1.43亿美元,顾问人数增加到2,162人。这些努力对公司产生的影响如下表所示:

年份新车险保单*生效车险保单*
1993354,8822,011,055
1994396,2172,147,549
1995461,6082,310,037
1996617,6692,543,699
1997913,1762,949,439
19981,317,7613,562,644

* 仅”自愿性”保单;不包括指定风险等。

原文

In 1995, the year prior to its acquisition by Berkshire, GEICO spent $33 million on marketing and had 652 telephone counselors. Last year the company spent $143 million, and the counselor count grew to 2,162. The effects that these efforts had at the company are shown by the new business and in-force figures below:

YearsNew Auto Policies*Auto Policies In-Force*
1993354,8822,011,055
1994396,2172,147,549
1995461,6082,310,037
1996617,6692,543,699
1997913,1762,949,439
19981,317,7613,562,644

* “Voluntary” only; excludes assigned risks and the like.

1999年,我们将再次增加营销预算,至少花费1.9亿美元。事实上,只要我们能同时建设公司所需的基础设施以妥善服务保单持有人,伯克希尔愿意在GEICO的新业务活动上投入没有上限的资金。

原文

In 1999, we will again increase our marketing budget, spending at least $190 million. In fact, there is no limit to what Berkshire is willing to invest in GEICO’s new-business activity, as long as we can concurrently build the infrastructure the company needs to properly serve its policyholders.

由于第一年的成本,那些关注季度或年度收益的公司会避免类似的投资,无论这些投资在建立长期价值方面多么明智。我们的计算方式不同:我们只衡量我们是否在每花费一美元中创造了超过一美元的价值——如果计算结果是正面的,那么花费越多我就越高兴。

原文

Because of the first-year costs, companies that are concerned about quarterly or annual earnings would shy from similar investments, no matter how intelligent these might be in terms of building long-term value. Our calculus is different: We simply measure whether we are creating more than a dollar of value per dollar spent — and if that calculation is favorable, the more dollars we spend the happier I am.

当然,GEICO的成功远不止低价和铺天盖地的广告。理赔处理也必须公平、快速且友好——我们做到了。以下是一份公正的评分卡:在纽约,我们业务量最大的州,保险部最近报告,GEICO在1997年的投诉率不仅是五大汽车保险公司中最低的,而且不到其他四家公司平均水平的一半。

原文

There is far more to GEICO’s success, of course, than low prices and a torrent of advertising. The handling of claims must also be fair, fast and friendly — and ours is. Here’s an impartial scorecard on how we shape up: In New York, our largest-volume state, the Insurance Department recently reported that GEICO’s complaint ratio in 1997 was not only the lowest of the five largest auto insurers but was also less than half the average of the other four.

GEICO在1998年6.7%的利润率好于我们的预期——实际上,比我们希望的还要好。我们的结果反映了一个行业现象:近年来,汽车事故的频率和严重程度都出人意料地下降。我们对此的回应是在1998年将费率降低了3.3%,1999年将进一步降低。这些举措将很快使利润率下降——至少下降到我们目标的4%,甚至可能更低。无论如何,我们相信我们的利润率将继续远好于行业水平。

原文

GEICO’s 1998 profit margin of 6.7% was better than we had anticipated — and, indeed, better than we wished. Our results reflect an industry-wide phenomenon: In recent years, both the frequency of auto accidents and their severity have unexpectedly declined. We responded by reducing rates 3.3% in 1998, and we will reduce them still more in 1999. These moves will soon bring profit margins down — at the least to 4%, which is our target, and perhaps considerably lower. Whatever the case, we believe that our margins will continue to be much better than those of the industry.

1998年GEICO的增长和盈利能力都表现出色,其利润分享和奖金发放也同样出色。事实上,向所有与我们合作超过一年的9,313名员工发放的1.03亿美元利润分享金——相当于工资的32.3%——很可能是全国任何大公司中最高的比例。(此外,员工还受益于公司资助的养老金计划。)

原文

With GEICO’s growth and profitability both outstanding in 1998, so also were its profit-sharing and bonus payments. Indeed, the profit-sharing payment of $103 million or 32.3% of salary — which went to all 9,313 associates who had been with us for more than a year — may well have been the highest percentage payment at any large company in the country. (In addition, associates benefit from a company-funded pension plan.)

32.3%可能是一个高点,因为利润分享计算中的盈利能力组成部分几乎肯定会下降。然而,增长组成部分很可能会增加。总体而言,我们预计这两个基准在未来几十年将共同带来非常可观的利润分享金。对于我们的员工来说,增长还以其他方式带来回报:去年我们提拔了4,612人。

原文

The 32.3% may turn out to be a high-water mark, given that the profitability component in our profit-sharing calculation is almost certain to come down in the future. The growth component, though, may well increase. Overall, we expect the two benchmarks together to dictate very significant profit-sharing payments for decades to come. For our associates, growth pays off in other ways as well: Last year we promoted 4,612 people.

尽管GEICO的数字令人印象深刻,但我们还有很多工作要做。我们的市场份额在1998年显著提升——但仅从3%提高到3.5%。对于我们现在拥有的每一个保单持有人,还有另外十个应该与我们合作。

原文

Impressive as the GEICO figures are, we have far more to do. Our market share improved significantly in 1998 — but only from 3% to 3½%. For every policyholder we now have, there are another ten who should be giving us their business.

你们中一些正在阅读本文的人可能属于这一类。大约40%查询我们费率的人发现,与我们合作可以省钱。这个比例不是100%,因为保险公司在承保判断上有所不同,有些公司比我们更看重居住在某些地理区域或从事某些职业的驾驶员。然而,我们相信,我们比任何其他面向所有人的全国性保险公司更频繁地提供低价。此外,在40个州,我们可以为我们的股东提供特别折扣——通常为8%。所以给我们打个电话,查一下。

原文

Some of you who are reading this may be in that category. About 40% of those who check our rates find that they can save money by doing business with us. The proportion is not 100% because insurers differ in their underwriting judgements, with some giving more credit than we do to drivers who live in certain geographical areas or work at certain occupations. We believe, however, that we more frequently offer the low price than does any other national carrier selling insurance to all comers. Furthermore, in 40 states we can offer a special discount — usually 8% — to our shareholders. So give us a call and check us out.


你可能认为这一部分一个广告就够了。但我还有一个,这次是针对上市公司经理们的。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

You may think that one commercial in this section is enough. But I have another to present, this one directed at managers of publicly-owned companies.

在伯克希尔,我们认为告诉像托尼这样杰出的CEO如何经营他们的公司是极其愚蠢的。我们的大多数经理人如果受到大量后座驾驶(指指点点),就不会为我们工作。(通常,他们不需要为任何人工作,因为大约75%的人已经财务独立。)此外,他们是商界的马克·麦奎尔,不需要我们就如何握棒或何时挥棒提供建议。

原文

At Berkshire we feel that telling outstanding CEOs, such as Tony, how to run their companies would be the height of foolishness. Most of our managers wouldn’t work for us if they got a lot of backseat driving. (Generally, they don’t have to work for anyone, since 75% or so are independently wealthy.) Besides, they are the Mark McGwires of the business world and need no advice from us as to how to hold the bat or when to swing.

然而,伯克希尔的所有权可能使即使是最优秀的经理人也更加高效。首先,我们消除了CEO工作中通常存在的所有形式化和非生产性活动。我们的经理人可以完全支配自己的时间安排。其次,我们给每个人一个简单的使命:像这样经营你的业务:1)你100%拥有它;2)它是你和你的家人目前或将来在世界上拥有的唯一资产;3)你至少在一个世纪内不能出售或合并它。作为推论,我们告诉他们,不应让任何决策受到会计因素的丝毫影响。我们希望我们的经理人思考什么是重要的,而不是如何被计算。

原文

Nevertheless, Berkshire’s ownership may make even the best of managers more effective. First, we eliminate all of the ritualistic and nonproductive activities that normally go with the job of CEO. Our managers are totally in charge of their personal schedules. Second, we give each a simple mission: Just run your business as if: 1) you own 100% of it; 2) it is the only asset in the world that you and your family have or will ever have; and 3) you can’t sell or merge it for at least a century. As a corollary, we tell them they should not let any of their decisions be affected even slightly by accounting considerations. We want our managers to think about what counts, not how it will be counted.

很少有上市公司的CEO在类似的授权下运作,主要是因为他们的所有者关注短期前景和报告收益。然而,伯克希尔拥有一个股东基础——并且将持续数十年——在上市公司中拥有最长的投资期限。事实上,我们的大多数股份由预期在去世前一直持有的投资者持有。因此,我们可以要求我们的CEO为最大化长期价值而管理,而不是为了下一季度的收益。我们当然不忽视我们业务的当前结果——在大多数情况下,它们非常重要——但我们从不希望以牺牲建立更强的竞争实力为代价来获得这些结果。

原文

Very few CEOs of public companies operate under a similar mandate, mainly because they have owners who focus on short-term prospects and reported earnings. Berkshire, however, has a shareholder base — which it will have for decades to come — that has the longest investment horizon to be found in the public-company universe. Indeed, a majority of our shares are held by investors who expect to die still holding them. We can therefore ask our CEOs to manage for maximum long-term value, rather than for next quarter’s earnings. We certainly don’t ignore the current results of our businesses — in most cases, they are of great importance — but we never want them to be achieved at the expense of our building ever-greater competitive strengths.

我相信GEICO的故事证明了伯克希尔方法的好处。查理和我没有教托尼任何东西——也永远不会——但我们创造了一个环境,使他能够将所有才能投入到重要的事情上。他不必花费时间或精力参加董事会会议、新闻采访、投资银行家的演示或与金融分析师的会谈。此外,他永远不必花一秒钟考虑融资、信用评级或”华尔街”对每股收益的预期。由于我们的所有权结构,他也知道这个运营框架将持续数十年。在这个自由的环境中,托尼和他的公司都能将他们几乎无限的潜力转化为相应的成就。

原文

I believe the GEICO story demonstrates the benefits of Berkshire’s approach. Charlie and I haven’t taught Tony a thing — and never will — but we have created an environment that allows him to apply all of his talents to what’s important. He does not have to devote his time or energy to board meetings, press interviews, presentations by investment bankers or talks with financial analysts. Furthermore, he need never spend a moment thinking about financing, credit ratings or “Street” expectations for earnings per share. Because of our ownership structure, he also knows that this operational framework will endure for decades to come. In this environment of freedom, both Tony and his company can convert their almost limitless potential into matching achievements.

如果你经营一家大型盈利企业,并且会在GEICO式的环境中蓬勃发展,请查看第21页的收购标准并给我打电话。我保证快速答复,并且除了查理之外,不会向任何人提及你的询问。

原文

If you are running a large, profitable business that will thrive in a GEICO-like environment, check our acquisition criteria on page 21 and give me a call. I promise a fast answer and will mention your inquiry to no one except Charlie.

Executive Jet Aviation (1-800-848-6436)

要理解Executive Jet Aviation(EJA)的巨大潜力,你需要了解其业务——销售飞机的部分所有权并为众多所有者运营机队。EJA的首席执行官里奇·桑图利在1986年创立了部分所有权行业,他预见到了使用飞机的一种重要的新方式。然后,他将勇气与才华结合,将自己的想法变成了一项大生意。

原文

Executive Jet Aviation (1-800-848-6436)

To understand the huge potential at Executive Jet Aviation (EJA), you need some understanding of its business, which is selling fractional shares of jets and operating the fleet for its many owners. Rich Santulli, CEO of EJA, created the fractional ownership industry in 1986, by visualizing an important new way of using planes. Then he combined guts and talent to turn his idea into a major business.

在部分所有权计划中,你购买EJA提供的多种飞机中任何一种的部分份额——比如八分之一。该购买权使你每年享有100小时的飞行时间。(“空驶”小时不计入你的配额,并且你可以将小时数平均分配到五年内。)此外,你需要支付月度管理费和实际飞行时间的费用。

原文

In a fractional ownership plan, you purchase a portion — say /1 8th — of any of a wide variety of jets that EJA offers. That purchase entitles you to 100 hours of flying time annually. (“Dead-head” hours don’t count against your allotment, and you are also allowed to average your hours over five years.) In addition, you pay both a monthly management fee and a fee for hours actually flown.

然后,只需提前几小时通知,EJA就能在你选择的美国5,500个机场之一为你提供你的飞机,或至少同样好的其他飞机。实际上,召唤你的飞机就像打电话叫出租车一样。

原文

Then, on a few hours notice, EJA makes your plane, or another at least as good, available to you at your choice of the 5500 airports in the U.S. In effect, calling up your plane is like phoning for a taxi.

大约四年前,我从H.H. Brown的经理弗兰克·鲁尼那里首次听说了这个名为NetJets®的项目。弗兰克使用过这项服务并非常满意,建议我见见里奇,为我的家庭使用了解一下。里奇用了大约15分钟就说服我购买了一架霍克1000的四分之一份额(每年200小时)。从那时起,我的家人通过飞行300次航程、共计900小时,亲身体验了EJA运营的友好、高效和安全。简单来说,他们非常喜欢这项服务。事实上,他们很快就变得如此热情,以至于在我知道有任何可能收购这家公司之前,我就为EJA做了一个推荐广告。不过,我确实请里奇如果有一天有意出售,给我打个电话。幸运的是,他去年五月给我打了电话,我们迅速达成了7.25亿美元的交易,用等额的现金和股票支付。

原文

I first heard about the NetJets® program, as it is called, about four years ago from Frank Rooney, our manager at

H.H. Brown. Frank had used and been delighted with the service and suggested that I meet Rich to investigate signing up for my family’s use. It took Rich about 15 minutes to sell me a quarter (200 hours annually) of a Hawker 1000. Since then, my family has learned firsthand — through flying 900 hours on 300 trips — what a friendly, efficient, and safe operation EJA runs. Quite simply, they love this service. In fact, they quickly grew so enthusiastic that I did a testimonial ad for EJA long before I knew there was any possibility of our purchasing the business. I did, however, ask Rich to give me a call if he ever got interested in selling. Luckily, he phoned me last May, and we quickly made a $725 million deal, paying equal amounts of cash and stock.

EJA是其行业中迄今为止最大的运营商,拥有超过1,000名客户和163架飞机(其中包括23架由EJA自己拥有或租赁的”核心”飞机,以确保即使在需求最旺盛的时期也能提供一流的服务)。当然,安全是任何飞行运营的首要问题,里奇的飞行员——目前约有650名——每年至少两次接受FlightSafety International(另一家伯克希尔子公司,全球飞行员培训领导者)的广泛培训。关于我们的飞行员,总结一下:我已经卖掉了伯克希尔的飞机,现在所有的商务和个人飞行都将使用NetJets的机组人员。

原文

EJA, which is by far the largest operator in its industry, has more than 1,000 customers and 163 aircraft (including 23 “core” aircraft that are owned or leased by EJA itself, so that it can make sure that service is first-class even during the times when demand is heaviest). Safety, of course, is the paramount issue in any flight operation, and Rich’s pilots — now numbering about 650 — receive extensive training at least twice a year from FlightSafety International, another Berkshire subsidiary and the world leader in pilot training. The bottom line on our pilots: I’ve sold the Berkshire plane and will now do all of my business flying, as well as my personal flying, with NetJets’ crews.

成为这个行业的领导者对所有相关方都是主要优势。我们的客户受益,因为我们拥有一支遍布全国的飞机舰队,这种全覆盖使我们能够提供无与伦比的服务。同时,我们从全覆盖中受益,因为它降低了空驶成本。另一个吸引客户的强烈理由是,我们提供波音、湾流、达索、赛斯纳和雷神的产品,而我们的两个竞争对手是由只提供自家飞机的制造商拥有的。实际上,NetJets就像一位医生,可以推荐最适合每位患者需求的药物;而我们的竞争对手则是生产”自家品牌”的厂商,必须为所有人开出同样的药方。

原文

Being the leader in this industry is a major advantage for all concerned. Our customers gain because we have an armada of planes positioned throughout the country at all times, a blanketing that allows us to provide unmatched service. Meanwhile, we gain from the blanketing because it reduces dead-head costs. Another compelling attraction for our clients is that we offer products from Boeing, Gulfstream, Falcon, Cessna, and Raytheon, whereas our two competitors are owned by manufacturers that offer only their own planes. In effect, NetJets is like a physician who can recommend whatever medicine best fits the needs of each patient; our competitors, in contrast, are producers of a “house” brand that they must prescribe for one and all.

在许多情况下,我们的客户——无论是企业还是个人——拥有多种飞机的部分份额,因此可以将特定飞机与特定任务相匹配。例如,客户可能拥有三架不同飞机的各十六分之一份额(每架提供50小时飞行时间),这总共构成了一个虚拟机队,成本仅为单一飞机的一小部分。

原文

In many cases our clients, both corporate and individual, own fractions of several different planes and can therefore match specific planes to specific missions. For example, a client might own /1 16th of three different jets (each giving it 50 hours of flying time), which in total give it a virtual fleet, obtained for a small fraction of the cost of a single plane.

重要的是,不仅小企业能从部分所有权中受益。一些美国最大的公司已经将NetJets用作自有机队的补充。这为他们节省了大量资金,既能满足高峰期需求,又能执行那些使用全资飞机将产生不成比例空驶小时的任务。

原文

Significantly, it is not only small businesses that can benefit from fractional ownership. Already, some of America’s largest companies use NetJets as a supplement to their own fleet. This saves them big money in both meeting peak requirements and in flying missions that would require their wholly-owned planes to log a disproportionate amount of dead-head hours.

当飞机用于个人用途时,决定性的论点是,要么客户现在签约,要么他们的孩子以后可能会签约。这就是40年前我向亲爱的爱丽丝姑姑解释的公式,当时她问我是否买得起一件皮大衣。我的回答解决了问题:“爱丽丝,不是你买,是你的继承人买。”

原文

When a plane is slated for personal use, the clinching argument is that either the client signs up now or his children likely will later. That’s an equation I explained to my wonderful Aunt Alice 40 years ago when she asked me whether she could afford a fur coat. My reply settled the issue: “Alice, you aren’t buying it; your heirs are.”

EJA的增长是爆炸性的:1997年,它占全球订购的所有公务机的31%。尽管如此,里奇和我相信,部分所有权的潜力才刚刚开始被挖掘。如果有成千上万的所有者认为100%拥有一架飞机是合理的——这在经济上要求每年使用350-400小时——那么应该有更多倍于此的人适合部分所有权。

原文

EJA’s growth has been explosive: In 1997, it accounted for 31% of all corporate jets ordered in the world. Nonetheless, Rich and I believe that the potential of fractional ownership has barely been scratched. If many thousands of owners find it sensible to own 100% of a plane — which must be used 350-400 hours annually if it’s to make economic sense — there must be a large multiple of that number for whom fractional ownership works.

除了是一名出色的高管,里奇还很有趣。像我们大多数经理人一样,他完全没有经济需要去工作。里奇在EJA投入时间是因为这是他的宝贝——他想看看自己能把它带到多远。我们俩都已经知道答案,从字面意义和象征意义上来说:直到天涯海角。

原文

In addition to being a terrific executive, Rich is fun. Like most of our managers, he has no economic need whatsoever to work. Rich spends his time at EJA because it’s his baby — and he wants to see how far he can take it. We both already know the answer, both literally and figuratively: to the ends of the earth.


现在给伯克希尔董事们一个小提示:去年我在波仙珠宝和EJA上的支出超过了我工资的九倍。想想看,如果你们只给我加薪,伯克希尔的业务会多么繁荣。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

And now a small hint to Berkshire directors: Last year I spent more than nine times my salary at Borsheim’s and EJA. Just think how Berkshire’s business would boom if you’d only spring for a raise.

通用再保险

12月21日,我们完成了对通用再保险公司的220亿美元收购。除了100%拥有美国最大的财产意外险再保险公司——通用再保险公司之外,该公司还拥有(包括其已达成协议购买的股票)世界上历史最悠久的再保险公司——科隆再保险公司82%的股份。这两家公司共同再保险所有险种,并在124个国家开展业务。

原文

General Re

On December 21, we completed our $22 billion acquisition of General Re Corp. In addition to owning 100% of General Reinsurance Corporation, the largest U.S. property-casualty reinsurer, the company also owns (including stock it has an arrangement to buy) 82% of the oldest reinsurance company in the world, Cologne Re. The two companies together reinsure all lines of insurance and operate in 124 countries.

几十年来,通用再保险的名字在再保险界一直代表着质量、诚信和专业——在罗恩·弗格森的领导

下,这一声誉得到了进一步提升。伯克希尔在通用再保险和科隆再保险经理人的技能方面绝对无法增加任何东西。相反,有很多东西是他们可以教我们的。

原文

For many decades, General Re’s name has stood for quality, integrity and professionalism in reinsurance — and under Ron Ferguson’s leadership, this reputation has been burnished still more. Berkshire can add absolutely nothing to the skills of General Re’s and Cologne Re’s managers. On the contrary, there is a lot that they can teach us.

尽管如此,我们相信伯克希尔的所有权将以重要方式惠及通用再保险,并且其十年后的收益将大大超过没有合并的情况下可能达到的水平。我们这种乐观基于一个事实:我们可以让通用再保险的管理层自由地以最能发挥公司优势的方式进行运营。

原文

Nevertheless, we believe that Berkshire’s ownership will benefit General Re in important ways and that its earnings a decade from now will materially exceed those that would have been attainable absent the merger. We base this optimism on the fact that we can offer General Re’s management a freedom to operate in whatever manner will best allow the company to exploit its strengths.

让我们暂时看看再保险业务,以理解为什么通用再保险在伯克希尔旗下可以做到它单独无法做到的事情。对再保险的大部分需求来自那些希望摆脱由于大额和异常损失导致的收益大幅波动的原保险人。实际上,再保险公司通过吸收客户保险公司希望摆脱的波动性而获得报酬。

原文

Let’s look for a moment at the reinsurance business to understand why General Re could not on its own do what it can under Berkshire. Most of the demand for reinsurance comes from primary insurers who want to escape the wide swings in earnings that result from large and unusual losses. In effect, a reinsurer gets paid for absorbing the volatility that the client insurer wants to shed.

具有讽刺意味的是,一家上市的再保险公司却由其所有者和信用评估者根据其自身结果的平稳性来评分。收益的大幅波动会损害信用评级和市盈率,即使产生这种波动的业务从长期来看有望获得令人满意的利润。这种市场现实有时会导致再保险公司采取成本高昂的行动,包括将相当大比例的业务转出去(在称为”转分保”的交易中)或拒绝好的业务,仅仅因为它可能带来过多的波动性。

原文

Ironically, though, a publicly-held reinsurer gets graded by both its owners and those who evaluate its credit on the smoothness of its own results. Wide swings in earnings hurt both credit ratings and p/e ratios, even when the business that produces such swings has an expectancy of satisfactory profits over time. This market reality sometimes causes a reinsurer to make costly moves, among them laying off a significant portion of the business it writes (in transactions that are called “retrocessions”) or rejecting good business simply because it threatens to bring on too much volatility.

相比之下,伯克希尔乐于接受波动性,只要它伴随着长期利润增长的预期。此外,我们是资本的金库,这意味着波动的收益不会损害我们的顶级信用评级。因此,我们拥有完美的结构来承保——并保留——几乎任何金额的再保险。事实上,在过去的十年中,我们利用这一优势建立了一个强大的超级巨灾业务。

原文

Berkshire, in contrast, happily accepts volatility, just as long as it carries with it the expectation of increased profits over time. Furthermore, we are a Fort Knox of capital, and that means volatile earnings can’t impair our premier credit ratings. Thus we have the perfect structure for writing — and retaining — reinsurance in virtually any amount. In fact, we’ve used this strength over the past decade to build a powerful super-cat business.

然而,通用再保险给我们带来的是分销力量、技术设施和管理能力,使我们能够在行业的各个方面利用我们的结构性优势。特别是,通用再保险和科隆再保险现在可以加速进军国际市场,而行业增长的绝大部分几乎肯定将发生在那里。正如合并说明书所详细说明的,伯克希尔还为通用再保险带来了税收和投资方面的好处。但合并最令人信服的理由很简单:通用再保险出色的管理层现在可以不受过去制约其增长的限制,做他们最擅长的事情。

原文

What General Re gives us, however, is the distribution force, technical facilities and management that will allow us to employ our structural strength in every facet of the industry. In particular, General Re and Cologne Re can now accelerate their push into international markets, where the preponderance of industry growth will almost certainly occur. As the merger proxy statement spelled out, Berkshire also brings tax and investment benefits to General Re. But the most compelling reason for the merger is simply that General Re’s outstanding management can now do what it does best, unfettered by the constraints that have limited its growth.

伯克希尔承担了通用再保险投资组合的责任,但不包括科隆再保险的。然而,我们不会参与通用再保险的承保。我们只是要求公司在增加保留业务比例、扩大产品线和拓宽地域覆盖范围的同时,践行过去的纪律——这些举措的提出是基于伯克希尔的财务实力和对收益大幅波动的容忍度。正如我们一直所说,我们更喜欢起伏不定的15%回报率,而不是平稳的12%。

原文

Berkshire is assuming responsibility for General Re’s investment portfolio, though not for Cologne Re’s. We will not, however, be involved in General Re’s underwriting. We will simply ask the company to exercise the discipline of the past while increasing the proportion of its business that is retained, expanding its product line, and widening its geographical coverage — making these moves in recognition of Berkshire’s financial strength and tolerance for wide swings in earnings. As we’ve long said, we prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12%.

随着时间的推移,罗恩和他的团队将最大化通用再保险的新潜力。他和我已经相识多年,我们各自的公司都与对方开展了重要的再保险业务。事实上,通用再保险在1976年GEICO濒临死亡时的复苏中发挥了关键作用。

原文

Over time, Ron and his team will maximize General Re’s new potential. He and I have known each other for many years, and each of our companies has initiated significant business that it has reinsured with the other. Indeed, General Re played a key role in the resuscitation of GEICO from its near-death status in 1976.

罗恩和里奇·桑图利都计划参加年会,希望你们有机会向他们打招呼。

原文

Both Ron and Rich Santulli plan to be at the annual meeting, and I hope you get a chance to say hello to them.

财产意外险经济学

随着通用再保险的收购以及GEICO业务的蓬勃发展,理解如何评估一家保险公司变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。关键决定因素是:(1)业务产生的浮存金数量;(2)其成本;以及(3)最重要的是,这两个因素的长期前景。

原文

The Economics of Property-Casualty Insurance

With the acquisition of General Re — and with GEICO’s business mushrooming — it becomes more important than ever that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most important of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.

首先,浮存金是我们持有但不拥有的资金。在保险业务中,浮存金产生是因为保费在赔付之前收到,这个间隔有时会延长很多年。在此期间,保险公司将这笔钱进行投资。通常,这种令人愉快的活动伴随着一个不利方面:保险公司收取的保费通常不足以覆盖最终必须支付的损失和费用。这导致其产生”承保亏损”,即浮存金的成本。如果一家保险公司的浮存金成本长期低于公司为获取资金而需承担的其他成本,那么这家保险公司就有价值。但如果浮存金成本高于市场利率,那么这项业务就是一个柠檬。

原文

To begin with, float is money we hold but don’t own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. Typically, this pleasant activity carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an “underwriting loss,” which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.

这里需要提醒:由于损失成本必须估计,保险公司在计算承保结果时拥有巨大的自由度,这使得投资者很难计算公司的真实浮存金成本。估计错误——通常是无心的,但有时并非如此——可能非常巨大。这些计算错误的后果直接流入收益。经验丰富的观察者通常能发现准备金方面的大规模错误,但普通公众通常只能接受所呈现的内容,而有时我对知名审计师默认赞成的数字感到惊讶。至于伯克希尔,查理和我努力在向你们呈现承保结果时保持保守,因为我们发现保险业中几乎所有意外都是令人不快的。

原文

A caution is appropriate here: Because loss costs must be estimated, insurers have enormous latitude in figuring their underwriting results, and that makes it very difficult for investors to calculate a company’s true cost of float. Errors of estimation, usually innocent but sometimes not, can be huge. The consequences of these miscalculations flow directly into earnings. An experienced observer can usually detect large-scale errors in reserving, but the general public can typically do no more than accept what’s presented, and at times I have been amazed by the numbers that big-name auditors have implicitly blessed. As for Berkshire, Charlie and I attempt to be conservative in presenting its underwriting results to you, because we have found that virtually all surprises in insurance are unpleasant ones.

下表显示了自32年前我们进入保险业以来,伯克希尔保险业务产生的浮存金。数据每隔五年取一次,最近一年包括通用再保险庞大的浮存金。在这张表中,我们通过以下方式计算浮存金(相对于我们的保费量,我们产生大量浮存金):加上未决损失准备金、损失调整准备金、承担的再保险持有资金和未到期保费准备金,然后减去代理人余额、预付收购成本、预付税款和适用于已承担再保险的递延费用。(明白了吗?)

年份平均浮存金(百万美元)
196717
197270
1977139
1982221
19871,267
19922,290
19977,093
199822,762(年末)
原文

The table that follows shows the float generated by Berkshire’s insurance operations since we entered the business 32 years ago. The data are for every fifth year and also the last, which includes General Re’s huge float. For the table we have calculated our float — which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume — by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting agents balances, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Got that?)

YearAverage Float (in $ millions)
196717
197270
1977139
1982221
19871,267
19922,290
19977,093
199822,762 (yearend)

尽管我们的浮存金增长令人印象深刻——年复合增长率达到25.4%——但真正重要的是这项的成本。如果成本变得太高,浮存金的增长就会变成诅咒而非祝福。

原文

Impressive as the growth in our float has been — 25.4% compounded annually — what really counts is the cost of this item. If that becomes too high, growth in float becomes a curse rather than a blessing.

在伯克希尔,消息都是好消息:我们32年来的平均成本远低于零。总体而言,我们实现了可观的承保利润,这意味着我们因持有一大笔且不断增长的资金而获得报酬。这是最好的局面。事实上,尽管我们的净浮存金在资产负债表上被记录为负债,但它对我们来说的经济价值与等量的净值相当。只要我们能够继续实现承保利润,浮存金的价值将继续超过净值。

原文

At Berkshire, the news is all good: Our average cost over the 32 years has been well under zero. In aggregate, we have posted a substantial underwriting profit, which means that we have been paid for holding a large and growing amount of money. This is the best of all worlds. Indeed, though our net float is recorded on our balance sheet as a liability, it has had more economic value to us than an equal amount of net worth would have had. As long as we can continue to achieve an underwriting profit, float will continue to outrank net worth in value.

未来几年,伯克希尔的浮存金增长可能较为温和。再保险市场疲软,在这个行业中,关系变化缓慢。因此,通用再保险的浮存金——占我们总额的三分之二——在短期内不太可能显著增加。然而,我们预计我们的浮存金成本相比其他保险公司仍将非常有吸引力。

原文

During the next few years, Berkshire’s growth in float may well be modest. The reinsurance market is soft, and in this business, relationships change slowly. Therefore, General Re’s float — /2 3rds of our total — is unlikely to increase significantly in the near term. We do expect, however, that our cost of float will remain very attractive compared to that of other insurers.

报告收益来源

下表显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在此展示中,购买会计调整不分配给它们所属的具体业务,而是汇总后单独列示。这种程序使您可以查看未收购前这些业务的收益情况。基于第62-63页讨论的原因,这种展示形式在我们看来比使用公认会计原则(GAAP)(要求将购买溢价按业务逐项摊销)对投资者和经理人更有用。当然,我们表中显示的总收益与经审计财务报表中的GAAP总额相同。

(百万美元)
税前收益伯克希尔所占净收益(税后及少数股东权益后)
1998199719981997
运营收益:
保险集团:
承保—超级巨灾$154$283$100$183
承保—其他再保险(175)(155)(114)(100)
承保—GEICO269281175181
承保—其他原保险17531034
净投资收益974882731704
布法罗新闻53563233
金融及金融产品业务2052813318
飞行服务18114011084 (2)
家居用品72574132
国际乳品皇后5835
珠宝39322318
斯科特·费泽(不含金融业务)1371198577
喜诗糖果62594035
鞋业集团33492332
通用再保险2616
购买会计调整(123)(101)(118)(94)
利息支出(4)(100)(107)(63)(67)
股东指定捐赠(17)(15)(11)(10)
其他34602937
运营收益合计1,8991,7211,2771,197

(1) 包含1998年8月7日之后的Executive Jet。
(2) 包含1997年7月1日之后的Star Furniture。
(3) 自收购日1998年12月21日起。
(4) 不含金融业务利息支出。

原文

Sources of Reported Earnings

The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. For the reasons discussed on pages 62 and 63, this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-premiums to be charged off business-by-business. The total earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.

(in millions)
Pre-Tax**EarningsBerkshire’s**Share of Net *Earnings(*after taxes and minority**interests)
1998199719981997
Operating Earnings:
Insurance Group:
Underwriting — Super-Cat$154$283$100$183
Underwriting — Other Reinsurance(175)(155)(114)(100)
Underwriting — GEICO269281175181
Underwriting — Other Primary17531034
Net Investment Income974882731704
Buffalo News53563233
Finance and Financial Products Businesses2052813318
Flight Services18114011084 (2)
Home Furnishings72574132
International Dairy Queen5835
Jewelry39322318
Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation)1371198577
See’s Candies62594035
Shoe Group33492332
General Re2616
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments(123)(101)(118)(94)
Interest Expense (4)(100)(107)(63)(67)
Shareholder-Designated Contributions(17)(15)(11)(10)
Other34602937
Operating Earnings1,8991,7211,2771,197

(1) Includes Executive Jet from August 7, 1998.
(2) Includes Star Furniture from July 1, 1997.
(3) From date of acquisition, December 21, 1998.
(4) Excludes interest expense of Finance Businesses.

你们可以为我们的运营经理感到自豪。他们几乎总是能带来各自行业条件所允许的最高水平的收益,同时加强业务的长期竞争优势。总体而言,他们为你们创造了数百亿美元的价值。

原文

You can be proud of our operating managers. They almost invariably deliver earnings that are at the very top of what conditions in their industries allow, meanwhile fortifying their businesses’ long-term competitive strengths. In aggregate, they have created many billions of dollars of value for you.

举个例子:在我1994年的信中,我报告了拉尔夫·谢伊在斯科特·费泽的非凡表现。我没想到他只是在热身。去年,斯科特·费泽在没有杠杆的情况下(除了其金融子公司有保守水平的债务),在其1.12亿美元的净值基础上,实现了创纪录的9,650万美元税后收益。

原文

An example: In my 1994 letter, I reported on Ralph Schey’s extraordinary performance at Scott Fetzer. Little did I realize that he was just warming up. Last year Scott Fetzer, operating with no leverage (except for a conservative level of debt in its finance subsidiary), earned a record $96.5 million after-tax on its $112 million net worth.

今天,伯克希尔拥有异常多的个人,如拉尔夫,他们真正是其行业中的传奇人物。其中许多人在我们收购他们公司时加入了我们,但近年来我们也从内部发现了许多优秀经理人。当我们收购通用再保险和EJA时,我们又重要地扩大了全明星阵容。

原文

Today, Berkshire has an unusually large number of individuals, such as Ralph, who are truly legends in their industries. Many of these joined us when we purchased their companies, but in recent years we have also identified a number of strong managers internally. We further expanded our corps of all-stars in an important way when we acquired General Re and EJA.

查理和我在伯克希尔有轻松的工作:我们除了分配资本外几乎什么都不做。而且,即使在这方面,我们也并不那么精力充沛。不过,我们有一个借口:在分配资本时,活跃度与成就并不相关。事实上,在投资和收购领域,狂躁的行为往往适得其反。因此,查理和我主要只是等待电话响起。

原文

Charlie and I have the easy jobs at Berkshire: We do very little except allocate capital. And, even then, we are not all that energetic. We have one excuse, though: In allocating capital, activity does not correlate with achievement. Indeed, in the fields of investments and acquisitions, frenetic behavior is often counterproductive. Therefore, Charlie and I mainly just wait for the phone to ring.

然而,我们的经理人工作非常努力——结果显而易见。自然,他们希望自己的努力得到公平的报酬,但仅凭报酬无法解释他们非凡的成就。相反,每个人主要受到对自己业务能走多远——以及成为那个带领它到达那里的人的渴望所驱动。查理和我代表你们和我们自己感谢他们。

原文

Our managers, however, work very hard — and it shows. Naturally, they want to be paid fairly for their efforts, but pay alone can’t explain their extraordinary accomplishments. Instead, each is primarily motivated by a vision of just how far his or her business can go — and by a desire to be the one who gets it there. Charlie and I thank them on your behalf and ours.

Title: 1998年致股东信

第二部分/第二部分

这种将所有问题集中到一个季度的做法,暗示了一种相应的“大胆而富有想象力”的打高尔夫球的方法。在赛季的第一轮,高尔夫球手应该忽略自己的实际表现,干脆在记分卡上填满可怕的数字——双柏忌、三柏忌、四柏忌——然后交出比如140杆的成绩。建立了这个“储备”之后,他应该去高尔夫用品店告诉教练,他想要“重组”他不完美的挥杆。接下来,当他带着新挥杆上场时,他应该只计算自己打得好的洞,而忽略那些打得差的洞。这些来自旧挥杆的残余应该计入之前建立的储备中。那么,在五轮比赛结束后,他的成绩将是140、80、80、80、80,而不是91、94、89、94、92。在华尔街,他们会忽略那个140杆——毕竟,它来自一个“已停用”的挥杆——并将我们的英雄归类为一名80杆选手(而且是一个从不让人失望的选手)。

对于那些更喜欢提前作弊的人,这个策略有一个变种。高尔夫球手独自一人与一个合作的球童兼审计员一起打球,应该推迟记录糟糕的洞,打出四个80杆,接受因运动才能和稳定性而获得的赞誉,然后交出第五张记分卡,上面带着140杆的成绩。在用这个“大洗澡”纠正了他早期记分的罪过之后,他可能会咕哝几句道歉,但不会退还之前通过在俱乐部会所比较记分卡而赢得的钱。(我们是否需要补充,这个球童将赢得一个忠诚的赞助人?)

不幸的是,在现实生活中使用这些计分方法变种的CEO们往往会沉迷于他们正在玩的游戏——毕竟,篡改记分卡比花几个小时在练习场上要容易得多——并且永远无法鼓起勇气放弃它们。他们的行为让人想起伏尔泰关于性实验的评论:“一次是哲学家,两次就是变态。”

在收购领域,重组已经被提升为一门艺术:管理层现在经常利用并购来不诚实地重新安排资产和负债的价值,其方式使得他们既能平滑也能膨胀未来的收益。事实上,在交易时,大型审计公司有时会指出使用一点会计魔法(或者很多魔法)的可能性。从讲坛上得到这种推动后,一流的人常常会屈尊使用三流的策略。CEO们可以理解地发现,很难拒绝那些由审计师祝福的、能带来未来更高“收益”的策略。

一个来自财产意外险行业的例子将揭示这些可能性。当一家财产意外险公司被收购时,买方有时会同时增加其损失准备金,通常增加幅度很大。这种提升可能仅仅反映了此前准备金的不足——尽管这种精算“启示”与交易签署同时发生的情况,其巧合令人难以置信。无论如何,这一举动为未来某个日期“收益”流入收入创造了可能性,届时准备金将被释放。

伯克希尔完全避开了这些做法:如果我们要让你们失望,我们宁愿是在收益上,而不是在会计上。在我们所有的收购中,我们完全保留了损失准备金数字的原样。毕竟,我们一直与那些了解自己业务并且在财务报告上诚实的保险经理合作。在那些负债立即大幅增加的交易中,简单的逻辑表明,这些美德中至少有一个是缺失的——或者,另一种可能是,收购方正在为未来注入“收益”奠定基础。

这里有一个真实的故事,说明了公司美国中一种过于常见的观点。不久前,两家大银行的CEO——其中一位是做过许多并购的老手——正进行一次友好的并购讨论(最后没有达成交易)。这位经验丰富的收购者正在阐述可能合并的好处,结果被另一位CEO怀疑地打断:“但那不会意味着巨额费用吗,”他问道,“也许高达10亿美元?”这位“行家”毫不废话:“我们会做得比那更大——这就是我们做这笔交易的原因。”

巴尔的摩的R.G. Associates对1998年提取或宣布的特别费用进行的初步统计——即重组、在研R&D、并购相关项目和减记的费用——识别出不少于1369项,总计721亿美元。这是一个惊人的数字,从以下视角可以看出:财富杂志著名榜单上500家公司1997年的总收益为3240亿美元。

显然,当今许多高管对准确报告的漠视态度是一种商业耻辱。而审计师,正如我们已经指出的,几乎没做什么积极的事情。尽管审计师应该将投资公众视为他们的客户,但他们往往倾向于向那些选择他们并支付他们薪水的经理们卑躬屈膝。(“吃谁的饭,唱谁的歌。”)

然而,一个重大的新闻是,美国证券交易委员会(SEC),在其主席阿瑟·莱维特的领导下,似乎决心让公司美国清理其行为。在去年9月的一次里程碑式的演讲中,莱维特呼吁结束“收益管理”。他正确地指出:“太多的公司经理、审计师和分析师参与了一场点头和眨眼暗示的游戏。”然后他提出了真正的控诉:“管理可能正在让位于操纵;诚信可能正在输给幻觉。”

我敦促你们阅读主席的演讲(你可以在互联网上找到,网址是www.sec.gov)并支持他努力让公司美国向其所有者提供真实的信息。莱维特的工作将异常艰巨,但很难想象有比这更重要的事情需要他去做。

致股东的报告

伯克希尔的网站,www.berkshirehathaway.com,已经成为关于公司信息的主要来源。虽然我们继续向所有股东发送年报,但现在我们只向那些提出要求的股东发送季报,让其他人在我们的网站上阅读这些报告。在本报告中,我们再次附上一张卡片,那些希望在1999年收到印刷版季报的人可以将其寄回。

查理和我在报告方面有两个简单的目标:1)我们希望提供给你们的信息,是如果我们角色互换时我们希望你们提供给我们的;2)我们希望同时让伯克希尔的信息对所有股东都可访问。互联网极大地帮助我们实现了第二个目标。

在他9月演讲的另一部分,阿瑟·莱维特谴责了他所谓的“选择性披露”。他的评论非常及时:如今,许多公司习以为常地以各种通常接近或跨越不公平界限的方式,偏袒华尔街分析师和机构投资者。这些做法使绝大多数股东相对于一个受优待的阶层处于明显的不利地位。

在伯克希尔,我们将一股B股持有者视为与大型机构投资者平等。我们当然热烈欢迎机构作为所有者,并通过通用再保险的合并获得了许多机构股东。我们也希望这些新持有人发现,我们的所有者手册和年报为他们提供的关于伯克希尔的见解和信息,比他们从这些公司通常维持的投资者关系部门获得的关于其他公司的了解更多。但如果股东或分析师寻求的是“收益指引”或类似的东西,我们将简单地引导他们查看我们的公开文件。

今年,我们计划在5月14日、8月13日和11月12日市场收盘后,将我们的季度报告发布在互联网上。我们还预计在2000年3月11日(星期六)将1999年年报放在我们的网站上,并大致在同一时间邮寄印刷版本。

我们会及时在我们的网站上发布新闻稿。这意味着你们不需要依赖媒体报道的版本,而是可以在自己的电脑上阅读全文。

尽管你们的主席技术技能可悲,但我很高兴地报告,GEICO、Borsheim’s、See’s和布法罗新闻现在正在通过互联网进行大量业务。我们还最近开始在网站上提供年金产品。这项业务是由Ajit Jain开发的,他在过去十年中个人贡献了伯克希尔运营收益的很大一部分。当查理和我睡觉时,Ajit一直在思考为伯克希尔增加价值的新方法。

股东指定捐款计划

大约97.5%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔1998年的股东指定捐款计划,捐款总额为1690万美元。该计划的完整描述见第54-55页。

在该计划的18年里,伯克希尔根据我们股东的指示累计捐款1.3亿美元。伯克希尔其余的捐赠由我们的子公司进行,这些子公司遵循它们被收购前存在的慈善模式(只是它们的前所有者自己承担了个人慈善的责任)。总的来说,我们的子公司在1998年捐赠了1250万美元,包括价值200万美元的实物捐赠。

要参与未来的计划,您必须拥有以实际所有者名义注册的A类股,而不是以经纪人、银行或存管机构的名义登记。未在1999年8月31日如此注册的股份将没有资格参与1999年的计划。当您从我们这里收到捐款表格时,请及时寄回,以免被搁置或遗忘。逾期收到的指定将不被认可。

年会

今年的资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节将于5月1日至3日举行,我们可能面临一个问题。去年有超过10,000人参加了我们的年会,而我们的股东名单自那以后翻了一番。所以我们不太清楚今年会有多少人参加。为了安全起见,我们预订了能容纳约14,000人的Aksarben体育馆和能额外容纳5,000人的假日会议中心。因为我们知道我们的奥马哈股东会想做好东道主招待外地来宾(其中许多人来自美国以外),我们计划让这些来宾优先获得Aksarben的门票,然后按先到先得的原则分配给奥马哈大都会区的居民。如果Aksarben的门票发完,我们将开始向奥马哈股东分发假日会议中心的门票。

如果我们最终使用两个地点,查理和我会在会前时间在两个地点之间分配时间。此外,我们将在两个地点都安排展览、伯克希尔电影、大型电视屏幕和麦克风。当我们午休时,许多与会者会离开Aksarben,这意味着在假日会议中心的人可以,如果他们愿意,乘坐五分钟的车到Aksarben,并在那里度过余下的时间。将提供巴士接送没有汽车的乘客。

两个地点的门都将在周一早上7点打开,8点30分我们将首映1999年伯克希尔电影史诗,由我们的首席财务官Marc Hamburg制作。会议将从9点30分持续到3点30分,中间只有短暂的午休。

随附在本报告中的代理材料附件,解释了如何获取进入会议和其他活动所需的徽章。至于飞机、酒店和汽车预订,我们再次签约美国运通(800-799-6634)为您提供特别帮助。按照我们的惯例,我们将从较大的酒店安排巴士前往会场。会后,这些巴士将返回酒店,并前往内布拉斯加家具城、Borsheim’s和机场。即便如此,您可能还是会觉得有一辆车很方便。

伯克希尔的完整产品线将在Aksarben有售,更受欢迎的商品也会在假日会议中心有售。去年我们全面创下了销售记录,售出了3,700磅See’s糖果、1,635双Dexter鞋子、1,150套Quikut刀具和3,104件伯克希尔衬衫和帽子。此外,还购买了26,944美元的世界图书产品以及超过2,000个带有伯克希尔·哈撒韦标志的高尔夫球。查理和我对这些数字感到满意但不满足,并自信地预测今年所有类别都将创下新纪录。我们1999年的服装系列将在会议上亮相,所以请在您看过我们的系列之前,推迟您对设计师品牌的购买。

冰雪皇后也将到场,并再次将所有收益捐赠给儿童奇迹网络。去年我们卖出了大约4,000个Dilly®棒、软糖棒和香草/橙子棒。此外,GEICO将设立一个展位,由我们来自全国各地的许多顶级顾问值班,他们都随时准备为您提供汽车保险报价。在几乎所有情况下,GEICO都能为您提供特别的股东折扣。看看我们能否帮您省钱。

我们单一公司贸易展的压轴戏将是一架79英尺长、近12英尺宽的、完全装备好的737波音公务机(“BBJ”)机舱,这是NetJets的最新产品。这架飞机航程为14小时;设计可搭载19名乘客;并提供一个卧室、一个办公室和两个淋浴间。交付给部分所有者将在2000年第一季度开始。

BBJ将在5月1日至3日期间,在靠近Aksarben大厅入口处供您参观。您应该在周六或周日参观,以尽量减少等待时间。带上您的支票簿,以防您决定冲动购买。

内布拉斯加家具城的多店铺综合体,位于距离Aksarben约一英里的一个75英亩的地段上,工作日营业时间为上午10点至晚上9点,周六和周日为上午10点至下午6点。这家店在1998年实现了3亿美元的营业额,并提供无与伦比的商品种类——家具、电子产品、电器、地毯和电脑——所有商品价格都无与伦比。在4月30日至5月4日期间,出示会议徽章的股东将享受通常只给予其员工的折扣。

Borsheim’s通常周日关门,但将在5月2日上午10点至下午6点对股东开放。在去年的年会周末,这家店做了惊人的生意。销售额是前一年的两倍,而该店周日的营业额大大超过了Borsheim’s历史上任何一天的营业额。查理将此纪录归因于他那天在销售票据上签了名,虽然我对此表示怀疑,但我们不会去破坏一个成功的模式。请让他签到手抽筋。在去年的那个周日,Borsheim’s在营业的八小时内开了2,501张票据。对于那些数学不好的人来说,这相当于每11.5秒开出一张票据。

希望避开周日人群的股东可以在周六(上午10点至下午5点30分)或周一(上午10点至晚上8点)参观Borsheim’s。请务必表明自己是伯克希尔的所有者,以便Borsheim’s的CEO Susan Jacques能给您报一个“股东周末”价格。Susan于1983年以每小时4美元的销售人员身份加入我们,并于1994年被任命为CEO。这一举动是我做的最好的管理决策之一。

桥牌爱好者可以期待周日的激动时刻,届时鲍勃·哈曼——桥牌史上最好的牌手——将出现在Borsheim’s外的购物中心和我们股东一起打牌。鲍勃打牌时不整理他的牌——嘿,也许这就是我的牌技问题所在。我们还会设另外几张桌子,由一两位其他专家对局。

Gorat’s——我最喜欢的牛排馆——将在会议前的周日晚再次专门为伯克希尔股东开放。尽管去年Gorat’s从下午4点服务到凌晨1点左右,但员工们应接不暇,我们的一些股东经历了不舒服的等待。今年将接受更少的预订,我们要求没有预订的股东不要在周日来。在其他年份,我们的许多股东选择在周五、周六或周一光顾Gorat’s。您可以从4月1日*(但不要在此之前)*开始致电402-551-3733进行预订。内行人会继续点三分熟的T骨牛排和双份土豆煎饼。

奥马哈金穗队(原名奥马哈皇家队)将于5月1日(周六)晚上在罗森布拉特体育场迎战爱荷华小熊队。您的主席,去年的曲线球让观众议论纷纷,今年将再次登上投手丘。今年我计划展示我的“飘球”。令我非常恼火的是,许多人将我们的年会视为一个金融事件,而不是我认为的体育盛会。一旦世界看到我的飘球,这种误解将被消除。

我们的代理声明中包含关于如何获取比赛门票的说明,以及大量其他信息,这些信息应该能帮助您享受您的访问。我特别敦促通过Gen Re合并获得的60,000名股东加入我们。来见见你们的资本家伙伴。


如果不提一下在伯克希尔公司办公室与我一起工作的11.8个人,就不算完美收官。除了处理拥有数十家企业所带来的无数税务、监管和行政事务外,这个小组高效而愉快地管理着各种特殊项目,其中一些项目会产生数百个查询。以下是1998年发生的一些事情样本:

你和我只支付了11.8个人的费用,但我们在大多数地方得到的是100个人的产出。对所有这11.8个人,我表示感谢。

1999年3月1日

沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席

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