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2002年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的信

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

2002年,我们的净资产增加了61亿美元,使A类股和B类股的每股账面价值增长了10.0%。在过去的38年里(即自现任管理层接管以来),每股账面价值从19美元增长至41,727美元,年复合增长率为22.2%。∗

∗本报告中的所有数据均适用于伯克希尔的A类股,它是公司在1996年之前唯一发行在外的股票的继承者。B类股的经济权益相当于A类股的三十分之一。

从各个方面来看,2002年都是辉煌的一年。我将在后面提供细节,但先做个总结:

2002年,这些有利因素的共同作用使我们的账面价值增长超越了标准普尔500指数32.1个百分点。这一结果是反常的:查理·芒格(伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人)和我的希望是,平均每年能战胜指数——最多——几个百分点。未来,会有标准普尔500指数大幅击败我们的年份。事实上,在强劲的牛市中这几乎肯定会发生,因为我们配置在普通股上的资产比例已显著下降。当然,这种变化有助于我们在2002年这样的熊市中取得相对更好的表现。

关于去年的业绩,我还有一个警告要提。如果你近年来读过财务报告,你会看到大量“备考”盈利报表——在这些表格中,管理层总是展示出远高于审计师允许的“盈利”。在这些陈述中,CEO告诉他的所有者们“别算这个,别算那个——只算那些能让盈利看起来很丰厚的项目。”通常,这种“忘掉所有坏东西”的信息会年复一年地传递,而管理层连脸都不会红一下。

我们还没见过一份备考报表会披露审计后的盈利有些偏高。那么,让我们稍微创造一点历史:去年,按备考基础计算,伯克希尔的盈利低于我们实际报告的数额。

之所以如此,是因为两个有利因素提振了我们报告的数字。首先,2002年没有发生超级巨灾,这意味着伯克希尔(以及其他保险公司)从保险业务中赚到的钱比损失正常年份要多。在情况相反的年头——由于一场巨大的飓风、地震或人为灾难——许多保险公司喜欢报告说,如果不是因为那个异常事件,他们会赚到X美元。其含义是,既然这种超级巨灾不常发生,那么在计算“真实”盈利时就不应将其计入。这是欺骗性的胡说。这些“若非”损失将永远是保险业务的一部分,而且将永远由股东的钱来支付。

尽管如此,为了本次练习的目的,我们暂且借鉴一下这个行业的做法。对于去年,当我们没有发生任何真正重大的灾难时,如果你希望“正常化”我们的承保业绩,那么进行向下调整是合适的。

其次,2002年的债券市场有利于我们在金融和金融产品业务中采用的某些策略。这些策略带来的收益肯定会在一两年内减少——甚至可能消失。

所以……“若非”有这两个有利的意外,我们去年的税前利润会比实际报告的少大约5亿美元。不过,我们仍然很高兴地将这笔超额收益收入囊中。正如杰克·本尼在接受一项奖项时所说:“我不配得到这个荣誉——但是,话说回来,我有关节炎,我也不配得那个病。”


我们继续幸运地拥有一群杰出的管理者,其中许多人根本没有丝毫的经济需求再去工作。但他们留下来了:38年来,我们从未有过任何一家子公司的CEO选择离开伯克希尔去别处工作。算上查理,我们现在有六位超过75岁的管理者,我希望四年后这个数字至少增加两位(鲍勃·肖和我都是72岁)。我们的理由是:“很难教老狗学新把戏。”

伯克希尔旗下运营公司的CEO们都是各自领域的大师,他们经营企业就像经营自己的一样。我的工作就是为他们让路,并配置他们业务产生的任何多余资本。这是一份轻松的工作。

我的管理榜样是埃迪·贝内特,他曾是一名球童。1919年,19岁的埃迪开始在芝加哥白袜队工作,那一年白袜队打进了世界大赛。第二年,埃迪转投布鲁克林道奇队,他们也赢得了联盟冠军。然而,我们的英雄嗅到了麻烦。他换了行政区,于1921年加入了纽约扬基队,他们随即赢得了队史第一个联赛冠军。这时埃迪安顿下来,精明地预见到了将要发生的事。在接下来的七年里,扬基队赢得了五次美国联盟冠军。

这与管理有什么关系?很简单——要想成为赢家,就得与赢家合作。例如,1927年,埃迪从传奇的鲁斯和格里克领衔的扬基队投票决定给他的八分之一世界大赛份额中获得了700美元。这笔钱,埃迪仅工作了四天(因为纽约横扫了系列赛)就赚到了,大约相当于与普通同事一起工作的球童全年薪水。

埃迪明白他如何搬运球棒并不重要;重要的是与场上最优秀的人建立联系。我从埃迪身上学到了这一点。在伯克希尔,我经常把球棒递给美国商界许多最重量级的击球手。

收购

去年我们为阵容增添了一些强棒。2001年底悬而未决的两项收购已经完成:Albecca(以Larson-Juhl品牌运营),美国定制相框的领导者;以及Fruit of the Loom,生产美国约33.3%的男士和男童内衣以及其他服装的公司。

两家公司都拥有杰出的CEO:Albecca的史蒂夫·麦肯齐和Fruit的约翰·霍兰德。约翰于1996年从Fruit退休,三年前重新加入并拯救了公司,使其摆脱了他离开后陷入的灾难性道路。他现在70岁了,我正试图说服他,让他的下一次退休与我的退休时间一致(目前定在我去世后五年——但这个日期可能会延长)。

去年我们还发起并完成了另外两项收购,规模略低于我们通常的门槛。然而,总的来说,这些业务每年税前利润超过6000万美元。两者都处于经济特征严峻的行业,但也都拥有重要的竞争优势,使其能够在资本上获得体面的回报。

新成员是:

  1. CTB,一家在全球家禽、生猪、蛋类生产和谷物行业设备领域的领导者;
  2. Garan,一家童装制造商,其最大和最著名的产品线是Garanimals®。

这两家公司也带来了创造其卓越业绩的管理者:CTB的维克·曼奇内利和Garan的西摩·利希滕斯坦。

2002年我们发起的最大的收购是The Pampered Chef,这家公司有着一段迷人的历史,可追溯到1980年。当时多丽丝·克里斯托弗是芝加哥郊区一位34岁的家政课教师,有丈夫、两个小女儿,完全没有商业背景。然而,为了补充家庭微薄的收入,她开始思考自己最了解的东西——食物准备。她想知道,为什么不把营销厨房用具作为一门生意,专注于那些她自己发现最有用的物品呢?

为了起步,多丽丝以自己的人寿保险单作抵押借了3000美元——这是该公司注入的全部资金——然后去商品市场进行采购。在那里,她每种都买了一打,然后回家在地下室开始运营。

她的计划是在朋友家中向小群女性进行家庭演示。然而,在驱车前往第一次演示的路上,多丽丝差点说服自己回家,她确信自己注定会失败。

但那天晚上她面对的那些女性喜爱她和她的产品,购买了175美元的商品,TPC就此起步了。多丽丝与丈夫杰伊一起,第一年做了5万美元的生意。如今——仅仅22年后——TPC的年营业额超过7亿美元,拥有67,000名厨房顾问。

我参加过TPC的派对,很容易看出这家企业为何成功。该公司的产品,大部分是自有品牌,风格美观且非常实用,顾问们知识渊博且充满热情。每个人都过得很愉快。赶紧访问网上的pamperedchef.com,在你附近找找看哪里有派对可以参加。

两年前,多丽丝请来了希拉·奥康奈尔·库珀(现任CEO)分担管理重任,去年八月她们在奥马哈与我见面。我大约用了十秒钟就断定,这是两位我愿意与之合作的经理人,我们很快达成了交易。能与多丽丝和希拉合作,伯克希尔的股东们真是再幸运不过了。


伯克希尔去年还通过中美能源控股公司(MEHC)进行了一些重要的收购,我们持有该公司80.2%的股权。然而,由于《公用事业控股公司法》限制我们持有9.9%的表决权控制权,我们无法完全合并MEHC的财务报表。

尽管存在投票控制权的限制——以及由此产生的MEHC略显奇怪的资本结构——但该公司是伯克希尔的关键部分。它已经拥有180亿美元的资产,并贡献了我们最大的非保险业务收益。它很可能会发展得极为庞大。

去年MEHC收购了两条重要的天然气管道。第一条是Kern River管道,从怀俄明州西南部延伸到南加州。这条管道每天输送约9亿立方英尺天然气,正在进行一项12亿美元的扩建工程,到今年秋天吞吐量将翻倍。届时,这条管道将输送足够的天然气,为1000万户家庭发电。

第二次收购是Northern Natural Gas管道,这是一条从西南部延伸到中西部广大地区的16,600英里长的管道。此次收购完成了一段对奥马哈人特别有意义的企业旅程。

从其1930年代起步开始,Northern Natural就是奥马哈最杰出的企业之一,由那些经常作为社区领袖脱颖而出的CEO们管理。然后,在1985年7月,这家公司——1980年更名为InterNorth——与规模不到其一半的休斯顿天然气公司合并。公司宣布,扩大后的业务将总部设在奥马哈,由InterNorth的CEO继续担任该职务。

一年之内,这些承诺就被打破了。到那时,休斯顿天然气公司的前CEO已经接管了InterNorth的最高职位,公司更名,总部搬到了休斯顿。这些转变是由新任CEO——肯·莱——策划的,他选择的新名字是安然。

快进15年到2001年底。安然陷入了我们听闻甚多的麻烦,并从Dynegy公司借款,用Northern Natural管道业务作为抵押。两家公司很快闹翻,管道的所有权转移到了Dynegy。而这家公司自己很快也遇到了严重的财务问题。

MEHC在7月26日(星期五)接到了Dynegy的电话,对方正在寻求快速、确定的现金出售这条管道。Dynegy找对了人:7月29日,我们签署了合同,不久之后,Northern Natural回到了家乡。

当2001年开始时,查理和我完全没想到伯克希尔会进入管道业务。但在Kern River扩建完成后,MEHC将运输美国使用的全部天然气的约8%。我们继续寻找大型能源相关资产,尽管在电力公用事业领域,《公用事业控股公司法》限制了我们能做的事情。


几年前,几乎可以说是偶然,MEHC进入了住宅房地产经纪业务。然而,我们大幅扩张了这项业务绝非偶然。而且,我们未来很可能继续扩张。

我们称这项业务为美国家居服务公司。不过,在其服务的各个社区,它使用所收购企业的名称,如奥马哈的CBS、明尼阿波利斯的Edina Realty和得梅因的Iowa Realty。在我们经营的大多数大都市地区,我们是明显的市场领导者。

美国家居服务现在是全国第二大住宅经纪公司。去年,我们以这样或那样的身份(或两者兼有)参与了370亿美元的交易,比2001年增长了100%。

我们的增长大部分来自2002年进行的三次收购,其中最大的是Prudential California Realty。这家公司是洛杉矶、奥兰治和圣地亚哥县地区的领先房地产经纪公司,去年参与了160亿美元的成交额。

在很短的时间内,该公司的CEO罗恩·佩尔蒂埃已经大幅增加了美国家居服务的收入和利润。虽然这项业务总是具有周期性,但这是我们喜欢的业务,并且我们仍然有胃口进行合理的收购。


MEHC的CEO戴夫·索科尔和他的关键助手格雷格·阿贝尔是伯克希尔的巨大资产。他们既是交易撮合者,也是管理者。伯克希尔随时准备向MEHC注入大量资金——看着戴夫和格雷格能将这项业务带到多远将会很有趣。

财产/意外伤害保险经济学

我们的核心业务——尽管我们还有其他重要的业务——是保险。因此,要理解伯克希尔,你必须了解如何评估一家保险公司。关键决定因素是:(1) 业务产生的浮存金金额;(2) 其成本;(3) 最关键的,这两者的长期前景。

首先,浮存金是我们持有但不拥有的资金。在保险业务中,浮存金产生是因为保费在赔付之前收取,这个间隔有时会持续多年。在此期间,保险公司将这笔钱进行投资。这种令人愉快的活动通常伴随着一个缺点:保险公司收取的保费通常不足以覆盖它最终必须支付的损失和费用。这导致其产生“承保亏损”,这就是浮存金的成本。如果一家保险公司的浮存金成本长时间低于公司为获得资金而另行支付的成本,那么这家保险业务就有价值。但如果其浮存金成本高于市场资金利率,那么这项业务就是个柠檬。此外,近年来利率的下降趋势,已将以前尚可容忍的承保亏损转变为将保险业务深深推入柠檬类别的负担。

从历史上看,伯克希尔以非常低的成本获得浮存金。事实上,在多年里,我们的成本甚至低于零;也就是说,我们实际上因为持有别人的钱而获得了报酬。然而,在2001年,我们的成本很糟糕,达到了12.8%,其中大约一半可归因于世贸中心的损失。回溯到1983-84年,我们有过更糟的年份。廉价浮存金并非自动可得。

下表显示了(间隔性地)自36年前我们收购国民赔偿公司(其传统险种包含在“其他直接保险”部分)进入保险业务以来,伯克希尔各保险业务板块产生的浮存金。在此表中,我们通过加总未付损失准备金、损失调整准备金、假设再保险持有资金和未赚保费准备金,然后减去保险相关应收款、预付收购成本、预付税款和适用于假设再保险的递延费用来计算我们的浮存金(我们相对于保费规模产生了大量浮存金)。(明白了吗?)

年份政府雇员保险公司通用再保险其他再保险其他直接保险总计
19672020
197740131171
19877018071,508
19972,9174,0144557,386
19983,12514,9094,30541522,754
19993,44415,1666,28540325,298
20003,94315,5257,80559827,871
20014,25119,31011,26268535,508
20024,67822,20713,39694341,224

去年我们的浮存金成本是1%。正如我之前提到的,考虑到2002年没有发生超级巨灾,你对这个有利结果应有所保留。我们确信会定期遭受这样的灾难,当它发生时,我们的浮存金成本将会飙升。

我们的2002年结果受到以下两方面的影响:1) 通用再保险因本应在更早年份确认为成本的损失而计提的令人痛苦的费用,以及2) 我们每年因追溯性保险而发生的“合意的”费用(关于这些项目的更多细节见下一节)。这些成本总计17.5亿美元,约占浮存金的4.6%。幸运的是,我们在2002年业务上的整体承保经验非常出色,这使得我们即使在计入上述费用后,也能接近零成本的结果。

如果没有超级巨灾,我预计2003年我们的浮存金成本将再次非常低——甚至可能低于零。在接下来对我保险业务的详细介绍中,你会看到我为什么乐观地认为,随着时间的推移,我们的承保结果将超越行业水平,并以最低成本为我们提供可投资的资金。

保险业务

如果我们的保险业务要长期产生低成本浮存金,它们必须做到:(a) 以坚定不移的纪律进行承保;(b) 保守地计提准备金;以及 (c) 避免风险累积,以至于一个被认为是“不可能”的事件会威胁到它们的偿付能力。除了一个例外,我们所有的主要保险业务都定期满足这些测试。

这个例外是通用再保险,去年该公司有很多工作要做才能使其达到标准。我很高兴地报告,在乔·布兰登的领导下,并在塔德·蒙特罗斯的大力协助下,在上述每个方面都取得了巨大进展。

当我在1998年同意将伯克希尔与通用再保险合并时,我认为这家公司遵守了我列举的三条规则。我几十年来一直研究其运营,观察到了始终如一的承保纪律和保守的准备金计提。在合并时,我没有发现通用再保险的标准有任何下滑。

我大错特错了。通用再保险的文化和做法已经发生了巨大变化,管理层——以及我——并不知情,该公司严重低估了其当前业务的风险定价。此外,通用再保险累积了巨大的风险集中,如果,比如说,恐怖分子在美国袭击中引爆了多个大规模核弹,那将是致命的。当然,这种规模的灾难极不可能发生,但保险公司有责任以一种方式限制其风险,使得其财务状况在“不可能”的事件发生时依然坚如磐石。事实上,如果通用再保险保持独立,仅世贸中心袭击就可能威胁到公司的生存。

当世贸中心灾难发生时,它暴露了通用再保险运营中的弱点,我本应更早发现这些弱点。但我很幸运:乔和塔德在场,他们获得了更大的权力,并渴望迅速纠正过去的错误。他们知道该做什么——而且他们做到了。

然而,保险单的到期需要时间,2002年过了很久我们才设法将核、化学和生物风险降到可容忍的水平。这个问题现在已经过去了。

在另一个方面,通用再保险的承保态度已经发生了戏剧性的改变:整个组织现在明白,我们只想以合理的价格承保业务,无论这对业务量有何影响。乔和塔德根据通用再保险的承保盈利能力来评判自己。规模完全不重要。

最后,我们正在尽一切努力使我们的准备金计提正确。如果我们在这方面失败,我们就无法知道我们的真实成本。任何不知道其成本是多少的保险公司都在走向大麻烦。

在2001年底,通用再保险试图为所有在那天之前发生但尚未支付的损失计提足够的准备金——但我们严重失败了。因此,该公司2002年的承保结果受到额外13.1亿美元的惩罚,这是我们为了纠正早年估算错误而记录的。当我回顾通用再保险被发现的准备金计提错误时,一首乡村歌曲的歌词似乎很贴切:“我希望我现在不知道我当时不知道的事。”

我可以向你们保证,我们未来的首要任务是避免准备金不足。但我不能保证成功。大多数意外险管理者的自然倾向是少提准备金,他们必须有一种特定的心态——你可能会惊讶,这与精算专业知识无关——才能克服这种毁灭性的偏见。此外,再保险公司在正确计提准备金方面面临的困难远大于直接保险公司。尽管如此,在伯克希尔,我们在准备金计提方面通常是成功的,并且我们决心在通用再保险也能如此。

总之,我相信通用再保险现在已做好准备,能够向伯克希尔提供大量的无成本浮存金,并且其可能导致沉船灾难的风险已被消除。该公司仍然拥有我过去概述的那些重要的竞争优势。去年它还获得了另一个非常重要的优势,当时其全球三大竞争对手(此前均被评为AAA级)均被至少一家评级机构降级。在巨头中,全面获得AAA评级的通用再保险,在财务实力方面现在是独一档的。

没有比这更重要的属性了。相比之下,最近,全球最大的再保险公司之一——一家经常被领先经纪商推荐给直接保险公司的公司——几乎停止支付索赔,包括那些既有效又到期的索赔。这家公司欠着数百家直接保险公司数十亿美元,这些公司现在面临巨大的减记。“廉价”再保险是傻瓜的买卖:当一家保险公司今天支付保费以换取再保险公司一二十年后的付款承诺时,与除了最强大的再保险公司以外的任何公司打交道都是危险的——甚至可能是致命的。

伯克希尔的股东们应该为乔和塔德在2002年取得的成就向他们表示巨大的感谢。他们在那一年比我希望任何人做的都要努力——而这正在产生回报。


在政府雇员保险公司,2002年一切进展如此顺利,以至于我们真该掐掐自己确认一下。增长显著,利润出色,保单持有人留存率上升,销售生产力大幅提高。这些趋势在2003年初仍在继续。

感谢托尼·奈斯利带来这一切。正如任何认识他的人都会证实的那样,托尼41年来一直深爱着政府雇员保险公司——自从他18岁进入公司工作以来——他的结果反映了这种热情。他为我们为保单持有人节省的钱感到自豪——每年大约10亿美元,相比之下其他保险公司平均会向他们收取更多费用。他为我们为这些保单持有人提供的服务感到自豪:在一项关键的行业调查中,政府雇员保险公司最近被评级高于所有主要竞争对手。他为他19,162名同事感到自豪,由于他们取得了出色的成绩,他们去年获得了相当于基本工资19%的利润分享金。他也为他为伯克希尔股东带来的不断增长的利润感到自豪。

当伯克希尔在1996年获得完全所有权时,政府雇员保险公司收取了29亿美元的保费。去年,其业务量是69亿美元,未来还有很大的增长空间。特别有希望的是该公司的互联网业务,其新业务去年增长了75%。请访问GEICO.com(或致电800-847-7536)查看。在大多数州,股东可获得8%的特别折扣。

以下关于政府雇员保险公司2002年盈利的脚注,强调了保险公司只应与最强大的再保险公司做生意的必要性。在1981年至1983年,当时管理政府雇员保险公司的经理们决定尝试承保商业伞式责任险和产品责任险。这些风险看似不大:该公司仅从这一险种获得了3,051,000美元的保费,并几乎全部使用了其中的2,979,000美元购买再保险以限制其损失。政府雇员保险公司仅留下了微不足道的72,000美元作为其保留的微小风险部分的补偿。但这苹果的一小口足以让这次经历令人难忘。政府雇员保险公司从此项冒险中遭受的损失现在总计高达令人瞠目的9,410美元,约为其收到净保费的130,000%。在总损失中,来自违约再保险公司的无法收回的应收款至少占了9,030万美元(包括2002年计提的1,900万美元)。这就是“廉价”再保险的下场。


阿吉特·贾因的再保险部门是我们去年浮存金成本如此之低的主要原因。如果我们有一天要在伯克希尔的年报里放一张照片,那会是阿吉特。彩色的!

阿吉特的业务已经积累了134亿美元的浮存金,超过除少数几家保险公司之外的所有公司曾经积累的金额。他自1986年白手起家,至今只有20名员工。而且,最重要的是,他创造了承保利润。

如果考虑我将要向你介绍的一些会计奥秘,他的利润尤其引人注目。所以,准备好吃你的菠菜吧(或者,如果你不喜欢借和贷,跳过下面两段)。

阿吉特2002年5.34亿美元的承保利润是他的业务确认了来自他多年来承保的“追溯性”保险的4.28亿美元费用之后实现的。在这类业务中,我们承担另一家保险公司对于他们已经发生的损失(通常是为几十年前的事件)支付特定金额的义务,但这些损失尚未支付(例如,因为一位1980年受伤的工人将终身按月领取赔偿金)。在这些安排中,一家保险公司向我们支付大额预付保费,但该金额低于我们预期要支付的损失。我们心甘情愿地接受这个差额,因为a) 我们的赔付是有上限的,并且b) 我们可以在损失实际支付之前使用这笔钱,而这些赔付通常会拖上十年或更长时间。我们所持有的66亿美元石棉和环境损失准备金中,大约80%来自于有上限的合同,因此其成本不可能 skyrocket。

当我们承保一份追溯性保单时,我们会立即记录保费和预期损失的准备金。两者之间的差额作为一项名为“递延费用——假设再保险”的资产入账。这不是一个小项目:在年底,对于所有追溯性保单,这项资产为34亿美元。然后,我们在每份保单的预期有效期内通过从收入中扣除费用来逐步摊销这项资产。这些费用——2002年为4.4亿美元,包括通用再保险的费用——产生了承保亏损,但这是一个有意且合意的亏损。即使在这个拖累报告结果的因素存在的情况下,阿吉特去年仍然实现了巨大的承保利润。

然而,我们要强调的是,我们在阿吉特的业务中承担的风险是巨大的——远远大于世界上任何其他保险公司所保留的风险。因此,单一事件可能在任何一个季度或年份导致阿吉特的结果出现重大波动。这丝毫不会困扰我们:只要我们得到适当的报酬,我们热爱承担别人希望摆脱的短期波动。在伯克希尔,我们宁愿在一段时间内赚取起伏不定的15%,而不是平稳的12%。

如果你在年会上见到阿吉特,请深鞠躬。


伯克希尔规模较小的保险公司度过了出色的一年。它们的浮存金总额增长了38%,并实现了3200万美元的承保利润,占保费的4.5%。这些业务集合在一起,可以构成美国最优秀的保险公司之一。

然而,这些数字中包含了我们在加州工人赔偿业务中的糟糕结果。在那方面,我们有工作要做。在那方面,我们的准备金计提也严重偏离了目标。在我们弄清楚如何正确经营这项业务之前,我们会保持其规模较小。

感谢罗德·埃尔德里德、约翰·基泽、汤姆·纳尼、唐·托勒和唐·沃斯特,感谢他们在2002年取得的辉煌成绩。他们为你们的伯克希尔投资增添了很多价值。

报告盈利的来源

下表显示了伯克希尔报告盈利的主要来源。您会注意到,“购买会计调整”在2002年急剧下降,原因是GAAP规则在那时发生了变化,不再要求摊销商誉。这一变化增加了我们的报告盈利,但对我们的经济盈利没有影响。

(单位:百万美元)
税前**盈利伯克希尔**应占净利润(税后及少数**权益后)
2002200120022001
营业利润:
保险集团:
承保 – 通用再保险$(1,393)$(3,671)$(930)$(2,391)
承保 – 伯克希尔集团534(647)347(433)
承保 – 政府雇员保险公司416221271144
承保 – 其他直接保险32302018
净投资收益3,0502,8242,0961,968
服装(1)229(33)156(28)
建筑产品(2)516461313287
金融和金融产品业务1,016519659336
飞行服务225186133105
中美能源(持股80%)613565359230
零售业务16617597101
斯科特·费策(不含金融业务)1291298383
肖氏工业(3)424292258156
其他业务256212160131
购买会计调整(119)(726)(65)(699)
公司利息支出(86)(92)(55)(60)
股东指定捐款(17)(17)(11)(11)
其他19251216
营业利润6,0104533,903(47)
投资资本收益6031,320383842
所有实体总利润$6,613$1,773$4,286$ 795

以下是我们在非保险业务的主要发展摘要:

衍生品

查理和我在如何看待衍生品及其相关的交易活动方面意见一致:我们视其为定时炸弹,无论是对于交易各方还是经济体系。

在转回到这个想法之前,请允许我先解释一下衍生品,尽管解释必须是概括性的,因为这个词涵盖了极其广泛的金融合同。基本上,这些工具要求在未来某个日期进行资金划转,金额由一项或多项参考项目决定,例如利率、股票价格或货币价值。例如,如果你做多或做空标准普尔500指数期货合约,你就是一项非常简单的衍生品交易的参与者——你的盈亏衍生自指数的变动。衍生品合同的期限各不相同(有时长达20年或更久),其价值通常与多个变量挂钩。

除非衍生品合同有抵押品担保或保证,否则其最终价值还取决于交易对手的信用状况。与此同时,在合同结算之前,交易对手会在其当期利润表中记录利润和亏损——金额通常巨大——而没有任何资金易手。

衍生品合同的范围仅受人类(有时,似乎是疯子的)想象力的限制。例如,在安然公司,那些要在多年后结算的新闻纸和宽带衍生品被记在了账上。或者,假设你想签一份预测2020年内布拉斯加州双胞胎出生数量的合同。没问题——只要价格合适,你很容易找到一个乐于配合的交易对手。

当我们收购通用再保险时,它带来了通用再保险证券公司,这是一家查理和我都不想要的衍生品交易商,我们认为它很危险。但我们出售该业务的尝试失败了,现在正在终止它。

然而,关闭一家衍生品业务说起来容易做起来难。完全退出这项业务还需要很多年(尽管我们每天都在减少风险敞口)。事实上,再保险和衍生品业务很相似:都像地狱一样,进去容易,出来几乎不可能。在任何一个行业,一旦你签订了一份合同(可能需要在几十年后支付一大笔款项),你通常就被套牢了。确实,有些方法可以将风险转移给他人。但大多数此类策略都会给你留下剩余责任。

再保险和衍生品的另一个共同点是,两者都会产生通常被严重夸大的报告利润。这是因为当期的利润在很大程度上是基于估计,而这些估计的不准确性可能在多年内都不会暴露出来。

错误通常是诚实的,只反映了人类倾向于对自己承诺持乐观态度。但衍生品的各方也有巨大的动机在会计处理上作弊。那些交易衍生品的人通常(全部或部分)根据按市值计价会计计算出的“利润”获得报酬。但往往没有一个真正的市场(想想我们那个涉及双胞胎的合同),于是使用了“按模型计价”。这种替代可能引发大规模的恶作剧。一般来说,涉及多个参考项目以及遥远结算日期的合同,增加了交易对手使用幻想的假设的机会。例如,在双胞胎的情景中,合同双方很可能使用不同的模型,使得双方都能在多年内显示可观的利润。在极端情况下,按模型计价退化成了我所谓的按神话计价。

当然,内部和外部审计师都会审查这些数字,但那可不是件容易的事。例如,通用再保险证券公司在年底(在开始缩减其业务的十个月后)有14,384份未平仓合同,涉及全球672个交易对手。每份合同都有一个正或负的价值,来源于一个或多个参考项目,包括一些复杂得令人难以置信的项目。要给像这样的投资组合估值,即使是专业的审计师也很容易且诚实地产生大相径庭的意见。

估值问题远非纸上谈兵:近年来,一些大规模的欺诈和近乎欺诈的行为都是通过衍生品交易得以实现的。例如,在能源和电力公用事业领域,公司利用衍生品和交易活动报告了巨大的“利润”——直到他们真正试图将资产负债表上与衍生品相关的应收款转换为现金时,一切轰然倒塌。然后“按市值计价”变成了真正的“按神话计价”。

我可以向你们保证,衍生品业务中的计价错误并非对称的。几乎总是,它们有利于那些盯着数百万美元奖金的交易员,或者想要报告令人印象深刻的“利润”的CEO(或两者兼有)。奖金照发,CEO从他的期权中获利。直到很久以后,股东们才发现报告中的利润是一场骗局。

关于衍生品的另一个问题是,它们会加剧一家公司因完全无关的原因遇到麻烦。这种叠加效应之所以发生,是因为许多衍生品合同要求,一家遭遇信用降级的公司必须立即向交易对手提供抵押品。那么,想象一下,一家公司因为普遍的不利情况而被降级,然后它的衍生品合同立即触发其要求,给公司带来意外的、巨大的现金抵押品需求。满足这一需求的要求可能进而使公司陷入流动性危机,在某些情况下,这可能会引发更多的降级。这一切都会形成一个螺旋,可能导致公司崩溃。

衍生品还创造了连锁风险,类似于保险公司或再保险公司将大量业务分保给他人时所面临的风险。在这两种情况下,来自众多交易对手的巨额应收款往往会随着时间的推移而累积。(在通用再保险证券公司,尽管我们已经清算了将近一年,我们仍有65亿美元的应收款。)一个参与者可能认为自己很谨慎,相信其巨大的信用风险敞口是多元化的,因此并不危险。然而,在某些情况下,一个导致A公司的应收款变坏的外部事件,也可能影响到B到Z公司的应收款。历史告诉我们,危机常常会使问题以一种在平静时期难以想象的方式相互关联。

在银行业,认识到“关联性”问题是成立联邦储备系统的原因之一。在美联储成立之前,弱银行的倒闭有时会对以前强劲的银行提出突然且意想不到的流动性需求,导致它们也相继倒闭。联邦储备系统现在保护强者免受弱者问题的困扰。然而,没有中央银行被指派去阻止保险或衍生品领域的多米诺骨牌效应。在这些行业中,基本稳健的公司仅仅因为链条下游其他公司的不幸就可能陷入困境。当一个行业内部存在“连锁反应”的威胁时,减少任何形式的联系是明智的。这就是我们开展再保险业务的方式,也是我们退出衍生品业务的原因之一。

许多人认为衍生品能减少系统性问题,因为无法承受某些风险的参与者能够将其转移给更强的参与者。这些人相信衍生品有助于稳定经济、促进贸易,并消除个体参与者的波动。而且,在微观层面,他们说的通常是正确的。事实上,在伯克希尔,我有时会为了促进某些投资策略而进行大规模的衍生品交易。

然而,查理和我相信宏观情况是危险的,并且越来越严重。大量的风险,特别是信用风险,已经集中在少数衍生品交易商手中,而他们彼此之间也有广泛的交易。一家的麻烦可能很快传染给其他家。除此之外,这些交易商还被非交易商对手欠着巨额资金。正如我提到的,其中一些交易对手以某种方式联系在一起,这可能因单一事件(如电信行业的崩溃或商业电力项目价值的急剧下跌)而同时出现问题。这种关联性一旦突然显现,可能引发严重的系统性问题。

事实上,在1998年,一个单一对冲基金——长期资本管理公司——高度杠杆化和衍生品密集型的活动,引发了联邦储备系统如此严重的担忧,以至于它匆忙策划了一次救援行动。在后来向国会作证时,美联储官员承认,如果他们不干预,LTCM这家不为公众所知、仅雇佣几百人的公司,其未平仓交易完全可能对美国市场的稳定构成严重威胁。换句话说,美联储采取行动是因为其领导人担心,如果LTCM的多米诺骨牌倒下,可能会对其他金融机构造成什么影响。而这件事,尽管使固定收益市场的许多领域瘫痪了数周,还远算不上最坏的情况。

LTCM使用的一种衍生品工具是总收益互换,这种合同促进了包括股票在内的各种市场的100%杠杆。例如,合同的一方A(通常是一家银行)为购买股票筹集所有资金,而另一方B,在不投入任何资金的情况下,同意在未来某个日期获得银行实现的任何收益或支付任何亏损。

这种类型的总收益互换使得保证金要求形同虚设。除此之外,其他类型的衍生品严重削弱了监管机构控制杠杆的能力,以及全面掌握银行、保险公司和其他金融机构风险状况的能力。同样地,即使是经验丰富的投资者和分析师,在分析那些深度参与衍生品合同的公司财务状况时,也会遇到重大问题。当查理和我读完详细说明大型银行衍生品活动的长篇脚注时,我们唯一能理解的是,我们并不理解该机构正在承担多大的风险。

衍生品这个精灵现在已经从瓶子里跑了出来,这些工具几乎肯定会增加种类和数量,直到某个事件使它们的毒性变得清晰。对它们危险性的认识已经渗透到电力和天然气行业,在这些行业中,重大问题的爆发导致衍生品的使用大幅减少。然而,在其他地方,衍生品业务仍在不受约束地扩张。中央银行和政府迄今尚未找到有效的方法来控制,甚至监控这些合同所带来的风险。

查理和芒格认为伯克希尔应该成为一座金融堡垒——为了我们的所有者、债权人、保单持有人和雇员。我们努力对任何类型的特大灾难风险保持警惕,这种姿态可能使我们对日益增长的长期衍生品合约数量以及随之而来的大量无抵押应收款感到过分担忧。然而,在我们看来,衍生品是大规模杀伤性金融武器,其携带的危险虽然目前是潜在的,但可能是致命的。

原文

Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength — for the sake of our owners, creditors, policyholders and employees. We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.

投资

下面列示了我们的普通股投资。其中,在2002年底市值超过5亿美元的项目已单独列出。

12/31/0**2
股份数量公司成本*市值
(单位:百万美元)
151,610,700美国运通公司$ 1,470$ 5,359
200,000,000可口可乐公司1,2998,768
96,000,000吉列公司6002,915
15,999,200H&R Block公司255643
6,708,760M&T银行103532
24,000,000穆迪公司499991
1,727,765华盛顿邮报公司111,275
53,265,080富国银行3062,497
其他4,6215,383
普通股合计$9,164$28,363

我们在股票市场上仍然行动不多。查理和芒格对我们在伯克希尔主要被投资公司的持股越来越感到安心,因为其中大部分公司的盈利在增长,而它们的估值却下降了。但我们不倾向于增持。尽管这些企业前景良好,我们尚未认为它们的股价被低估。

在我们看来,这个结论也适用于整体股票市场。尽管经历了三年的价格下跌,这显著提高了普通股的吸引力,我们仍然发现极少有股票能引起我们哪怕一点点兴趣。这个令人沮丧的事实证明了“大泡沫”期间估值达到了多么荒谬的程度。不幸的是,宿醉的程度可能与狂欢的程度成正比。

查理和芒格今天表现出的对股票的厌恶绝非天生。我们热爱拥有普通股——只要它们能以有吸引力的价格购买。在我61年的投资生涯中,大约有50年提供了这样的机会。将来还会有这样的年份。除非我们看到税前回报率至少有10%(换算成公司税后为6.5%至7%)的极高概率,否则我们会选择在场外观望。鉴于短期资金的税后回报率低于1%,在场外观望并不有趣。但偶尔,成功的投资需要不行动。

然而,去年我们确实在一些“垃圾”债券和贷款上进行了明智的投资。总体而言,我们在这一领域的承诺增加了五倍,到年底达到83亿美元。

投资垃圾债券和投资股票在某些方面是相似的:两种活动都要求我们进行价格-价值计算,并扫描数百种证券,以找到极少数具有吸引人回报/风险比率的标的。但这两个领域之间也存在重要差异。在股票方面,我们期望每笔投资都能取得良好结果,因为我们专注于那些财务保守、具有强大竞争优势、并且由能干且诚实的人经营的企业。如果我们以合理的价格买入这些公司的股票,亏损应该很少见。事实上,在我们管理公司事务的38年里,我们在伯克希尔管理的股票(即不包括在通用再保险和GEICO管理的那些)的收益与亏损的比例大约为100比1。

购买垃圾债券时,我们面对的是边缘得多的企业。这些企业通常负债过多,并且经常在资本回报率低的行业中运营。此外,管理层的质量有时也值得怀疑。管理层甚至可能拥有与债券持有人利益直接相悖的利益。因此,我们预计在垃圾债券投资中偶尔会出现大额亏损。然而,到目前为止,我们在这个领域做得还算不错。

原文

Investments

Below we show our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $500 million at the end of 2002 are itemized.

12/31/0**2
SharesCompanyCost*Market
(dollars**in millions)
151,610,700American Express Company$ 1,470$ 5,359
200,000,000The Coca-Cola Company1,2998,768
96,000,000The Gillette Company6002,915
15,999,200H&R Block, Inc.255643
6,708,760M&T Bank103532
24,000,000Moody’s Corporation499991
1,727,765The Washington Post Company111,275
53,265,080Wells Fargo & Company3062,497
Others4,6215,383
Total Common Stocks$9,164$28,363

We continue to do little in equities. Charlie and I are increasingly comfortable with our holdings in Berkshire’s major investees because most of them have increased their earnings while their valuations have decreased. But we are not inclined to add to them. Though these enterprises have good prospects, we don’t yet believe their shares are undervalued.

In our view, the same conclusion fits stocks generally. Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of valuations reached during The Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge.

The aversion to equities that Charlie and I exhibit today is far from congenital. We love owning common stocks — if they can be purchased at attractive prices. In my 61 years of investing, 50 or so years have offered that kind of opportunity. There will be years like that again. Unless, however, we see a very high probability of at least 10% pre-tax returns (which translate to 6½-7% after corporate tax), we will sit on the sidelines. With short-term money returning less than 1% after-tax, sitting it out is no fun. But occasionally successful investing requires inactivity.

Last year we were, however, able to make sensible investments in a few “junk” bonds and loans. Overall, our commitments in this sector sextupled, reaching $8.3 billion by yearend.

Investing in junk bonds and investing in stocks are alike in certain ways: Both activities require us to make a price-value calculation and also to scan hundreds of securities to find the very few that have attractive reward/risk ratios. But there are important differences between the two disciplines as well. In stocks, we expect every commitment to work out well because we concentrate on conservatively financed businesses with strong competitive strengths, run by able and honest people. If we buy into these companies at sensible prices, losses should be rare. Indeed, during the 38 years we have run the company’s affairs, gains from the equities we manage at Berkshire (that is, excluding those managed at General Re and GEICO) have exceeded losses by a ratio of about 100 to one.

Purchasing junk bonds, we are dealing with enterprises that are far more marginal. These businesses are usually overloaded with debt and often operate in industries characterized by low returns on capital. Additionally, the quality of management is sometimes questionable. Management may even have interests that are directly counter to those of debtholders. Therefore, we expect that we will have occasional large losses in junk issues. So far, however, we have done reasonably well in this field.

公司治理

长期以来,管理者的能力和忠诚度都需要监督。确实,大约两千年前,耶稣基督就谈到了这个问题,他在路加福音16:2中赞许地提到“一个财主”对他的管家说:“把你所经营的交代明白,因为你不能再作我的管家了。”

问责和受托责任在过去十年中衰落了,对于那些深陷大泡沫的人来说,这些品质被视为无关紧要。随着股价上涨,管理者的行为标准却下降了。因此,到了90年代末,走上正道的CEO们并未遇到拥堵的交通。

应该指出的是,大多数CEO都是你乐意让他们作为你子女资产的受托人,或作为你隔壁邻居的人。然而,近年来,这些本应正派的人中有太多人在办公室里行为失当,篡改数字,并为平庸的商业成就索取离谱的报酬。这些在其他方面体面的人只是遵循了梅·韦斯特的职业道路:“我是白雪公主,但我堕落了。”

理论上,公司董事会本应防止这种行为恶化。我上一次关于董事职责的讨论是在1993年的年报中。(应要求,我们可以寄给您这份讨论的副本,或者您可以在互联网上阅读1993年信的“公司治理”部分。)在那篇文章中,我说过董事“应该表现得好像有一位唯一的缺席所有者,其长期利益他们应该以一切适当方式去促进。”这意味着董事必须解雇平庸或更差的管理者,无论他多么讨人喜欢。董事必须像一位85岁千万富翁的新娘合唱团女郎那样做出反应。当富翁问她,如果他失去财产她是否还会爱他时,这位年轻美人回答说:“当然,我会想念你,但我仍然爱你。”

在1993年的年报中,我还说过董事有另一项工作:“如果有能力但贪婪的管理者越界,试图过度掏空股东的口袋,董事必须打他们的手。”自从我写下这句话以来,越界行为已变得普遍,但被打手的情况却很少见。

为什么聪明且正派的董事们会如此可悲地失职?答案不在于法律不足——董事有义务代表股东利益这一点一直很清楚——而在于我所称的“董事会氛围”。

例如,在一个由彬彬有礼的人组成的董事会里,几乎不可能提出是否应该更换CEO的问题。质疑一项已获CEO支持的拟议收购同样尴尬,尤其是在他的内部员工和外部顾问在场且一致支持他的决定时。(如果他们不支持,就不会出现在房间里。)最后,当薪酬委员会——一如既往地得到高薪顾问的支持——报告向CEO授予巨额期权时,董事建议委员会重新考虑,这就像在餐桌上打嗝一样不合时宜。

这些“社交”困难要求外部董事定期在CEO不在场的情况下开会——这是一项正在实施的改革,我由衷赞同。然而,我怀疑大多数其他新的治理规则和建议能否提供与其所施加的金钱和其他成本相称的收益。

目前流行的呼声是要求“独立”董事。确实,拥有能够独立思考并独立发言的董事是可取的——但他们也必须具备商业头脑、有利益关联并以股东为导向。在我1993年的评论中,这些是我认为必不可少的三个品质。

在40年的时间里,我曾担任过19家上市公司的董事(不包括伯克希尔),并与大约250名董事有过互动。他们中的大多数根据今天的规则定义都是“独立”的。但这些董事中的绝大多数至少缺乏我所珍视的三个品质中的一个。结果,他们对股东福祉的贡献充其量微乎其微,而且常常是负面的。这些人,尽管正派聪明,但对商业了解不够和/或对股东关心不够,无法质疑愚蠢的收购或过分的薪酬。我必须遗憾地补充道,我自己的行为也常常达不到标准:太多次,当管理层提出我判断为违背股东利益的提案时,我保持了沉默。在这些情况下,同僚之谊压倒了独立性。

为了进一步看清“独立性”的缺陷,让我们看一个涵盖数千家公司的62年案例研究。自1940年以来,联邦法律要求投资公司(大多数是共同基金)的董事中要有很大比例是独立的。最初要求是40%,现在是50%。无论如何,典型的基金长期以来一直由大多数符合独立资格的董事运营。

这些董事和整个董事会有许多例行公事的职责,但实际上只有两项重要责任:获得尽可能最好的投资经理,并与该经理协商尽可能低的费用。当你自己寻求投资帮助时,这两个目标是唯一重要的,代表其他投资者的董事应该拥有完全相同的优先事项。然而,就独立董事追求这两个目标而言,他们的记录绝对糟糕透顶。

成千上万个投资公司董事会每年开会,以完成选择谁来管理他们代表的数百万所有者的储蓄这一关键工作。年复一年,基金A的董事选择经理A,基金B的董事选择经理B,等等……在一个僵尸般的过程中,这嘲弄了受托责任。极少数情况下,董事会会反抗。但大多数情况下,在“独立”的共同基金董事建议其基金寻找其他经理之前,猴子都能打出莎士比亚的剧本,即使现任经理持续提供低于标准的业绩。当然,在处理自己的钱时,董事们会寻找其他顾问——但当他们作为他人的受托人行事时,却从未想到这一点。

当一家基金管理公司——称之为“A”——被以高价出售给经理“B”时,渗透在这个系统中的虚伪就生动地暴露了。现在,“独立”董事们经历了一次“反向启示”,并认定经理B是所能找到的最好的——尽管B以前几年里一直存在(并被忽视)。顺便提一下,B以前也可以以远低于现在它收购了经理A之后可能收取的费率被雇佣。这是因为B已经花费巨资收购了A,并且B现在必须通过向作为交易一部分被“交付”的A股东收取的费用来收回这笔成本。(关于共同基金业务的精彩讨论,请阅读约翰·博格尔的《共同基金常识》)。

几年前,我的女儿被邀请担任一个由一家大型机构管理的一系列基金的董事。她作为董事将获得的费用非常可观,足以使她的年收入增加约50%(她会告诉你,这增加是她用得上的!)。从法律上讲,她会是一位独立董事。但是,接近她的基金经理是否认为她有任何可能独立地思考基金应该雇佣哪位顾问?当然没有。我很自豪地说,她展现了真正的独立性,拒绝了这一邀请。然而,该基金毫不费力地填补了这个空缺(并且——令人惊讶的是——该基金没有更换经理)。

投资公司董事在协商管理费方面也同样失败(正如许多美国公司的薪酬委员会未能将CEO的薪酬控制在合理水平一样)。如果你我获得授权,我可以向你保证,我们很容易就能与大多数共同基金的现任经理协商出大大降低的管理费。而且,相信我,如果董事们能分得他们所实现的费用节省的一部分,天空中将满是下降的费用。但在目前的制度下,费用的降低对“独立”董事来说毫无意义,而对经理来说则意义重大。那么猜猜谁会赢?

当然,为基金找到合适的资金管理者远比降低管理费更重要。然而,这两项任务都是董事的职责。在承担这些至关重要的责任方面,六十多年来,成千上万的“独立”董事可悲地失败了。(然而,他们在照顾自己方面却成功了;他们在同一“家族”基金的多个董事会任职所得的费用常常高达六位数。)

当管理者深切关心而董事却不关心时,需要的是强大的制衡力量——而这正是当今公司治理中缺失的元素。摆脱平庸的CEO并遏制能干者的越界行为需要所有者——大所有者——采取行动。操作起来并不那么困难:近几十年来,股票的所有权越来越集中,今天,机构管理者很容易就能在问题公司施加他们的意志。二十家,甚至更少,最大的机构如果联合行动,只需拒绝投票给那些容忍恶劣行为的董事,就能有效地改革特定公司的治理。在我看来,这种协同行动是唯一能够有意义地改善公司受托责任的途径。

不幸的是,一些主要的投资机构在主张其他地方改善治理时,自身也有“玻璃屋”问题;例如,一想到自己的业绩和费用会被自己的董事会仔细审查,它们就会不寒而栗。但是,先锋集团的杰克·博格尔、戴维斯顾问公司的克里斯·戴维斯以及莱格·梅森的比尔·米勒正带头推动CEO们妥善对待其所有者。如果养老基金以及其他受托人支持这些人,它们未来将获得更好的投资回报。

改革的试金石将是CEO薪酬。管理者们会欣然同意董事会的“多样性”,向SEC备案并采纳关于流程的无意义提案。然而,许多人会激烈反对的,是对他们自身薪酬和津贴的严格审视。

近年来,薪酬委员会太经常地像摇尾乞怜的哈巴狗,温顺地遵循顾问们的建议,而这一群体并不以忠诚于支付他们费用的无面孔股东而闻名。(如果你不确定某人站在哪一边,那么他们不是站在你这边。)诚然,SEC要求每个委员会在委托书中陈述其关于薪酬的理由。但这些词语通常是公司律师或人力资源部门起草的套话。

这场代价高昂的闹剧应该停止。董事不应在薪酬委员会任职,除非他们自己能够代表所有者进行谈判。他们应该解释他们如何看待薪酬以及如何衡量业绩。此外,在处理股东的资金时,他们应该像处理自己的钱一样行事。

在1890年代,塞缪尔·冈珀斯将工会的目标描述为“更多!”在1990年代,美国的CEO们采纳了他的战斗口号。结果是,CEO们常常积累了大量财富,而他们的股东却经历了财务灾难。

董事们应该制止这种掠夺。为真正卓越的商业表现支付高薪并无不妥。但对于除此之外的任何情况,是时候让董事们大喊“更少!”了。如果近年来膨胀的薪酬成为未来薪酬的基准,那将是一种讽刺。薪酬委员会应该回到绘图板前。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

已经提出且几乎肯定会生效的规则将要求伯克希尔的董事会发生变化,迫使我们增加符合法典化“独立”要求的董事。

这样做时,我们将增加一个我们认为对促进独立性很重要但远非决定性的测试:我们将选择拥有巨大且真实的所有者权益(即他们或他们的家族购买的股票,而非伯克希尔给予或通过期权获得)的董事,期望这些权益对其行为的影响将压倒其他考虑,如声望和董事费。

这就引出了一个关于董事薪酬的经常被忽视的问题,上市公司董事的平均薪酬约为每年5万美元。令我困惑的是,许多依赖这些美元获得其年收入20%或更多的董事,当像罗恩·奥尔森这样的人(他是我们董事会的成员)可能因为从伯克希尔法律费用中获得其巨大收入的一小部分而被视为不独立时,他们怎么会被认为是独立的?正如投资公司的故事所暗示的,一个中等收入的董事严重依赖董事费——并且热切希望被邀请加入其他董事会以赚取更多费用——极不可能冒犯CEO或同僚董事,这些人将在很大程度上决定他在公司圈子的声誉。如果监管机构认为“可观”的金钱会玷污独立性(这当然可能),他们忽略了一大批潜在的违规者。

在伯克希尔,我们希望我们的费用对董事来说无足轻重,因此我们只支付给他们微薄的报酬。此外,我们不想让董事与我们可能遭遇的任何公司灾难隔离开来,我们不为他们提供高管和董事责任保险(顺便提一下,这种非正统做法多年来为我们的股东节省了数百万美元)。基本上,我们希望董事的行为由其决策对其家庭净资产的影响驱动,而非由他们的薪酬驱动。这正是查理和芒格作为管理者的方程式,我们认为这也应该是伯克希尔董事的正确方程式。

为了寻找新董事,我们将从我们的股东名单中寻找那些直接或通过其家族长期持有大量伯克希尔股票(价值数百万美元)的人士。符合这一条件的个人应自动满足我们的两个测试,即他们必须对伯克希尔感兴趣并以股东为导向。在我们的第三个测试中,我们将寻找商业头脑,这是一种远非普遍的能力。

最后,我们将继续让巴菲特家族成员留在董事会。他们不是在我死后经营企业,届时也不会获得任何形式的报酬。他们的目的是确保,在我被其他CEO接替后,伯克希尔的特殊文化能够得到维护。

我们董事组成的任何改变都不会改变查理和芒格经营伯克希尔的方式。我们将继续在工作中强调实质而非形式,并在董事会会议上尽可能少花时间进行展示和讲述以及例行公事的活动。我们董事会最重要的职责可能是选择查理和芒格的继任者,这是一件它会重点关注的事情。

我们迄今为止拥有的董事会监督着一个以股东为导向的企业,始终遵循第68-74页阐述的经济原则(我敦促所有新股东阅读)。我们的目标是获得同样致力于这些原则的新董事。

原文

Corporate Governance

Both the ability and fidelity of managers have long needed monitoring. Indeed, nearly 2,000 years ago, Jesus Christ addressed this subject, speaking (Luke 16:2) approvingly of “a certain rich man” who told his manager, “Give an account of thy stewardship; for thou mayest no longer be steward.”

Accountability and stewardship withered in the last decade, becoming qualities deemed of little importance by those caught up in the Great Bubble. As stock prices went up, the behavioral norms of managers went down. By the late ’90s, as a result, CEOs who traveled the high road did not encounter heavy traffic.

Most CEOs, it should be noted, are men and women you would be happy to have as trustees for your children’s assets or as next-door neighbors. Too many of these people, however, have in recent years behaved badly at the office, fudging numbers and drawing obscene pay for mediocre business achievements. These otherwise decent people simply followed the career path of Mae West: “I was Snow White but I drifted.”

In theory, corporate boards should have prevented this deterioration of conduct. I last wrote about the responsibilities of directors in the 1993 annual report. (We will send you a copy of this discussion on request, or you may read it on the Internet in the Corporate Governance section of the 1993 letter.) There, I said that directors “should behave as if there was a single absentee owner, whose long-term interest they should try to further in all proper ways.” This means that directors must get rid of a manager who is mediocre or worse, no matter how likable he may be. Directors must react as did the chorus-girl bride of an 85-yearold multimillionaire when he asked whether she would love him if he lost his money. “Of course,” the young beauty replied, “I would miss you, but I would still love you.”

In the 1993 annual report, I also said directors had another job: “If able but greedy managers overreach and try to dip too deeply into the shareholders’ pockets, directors must slap their hands.” Since I wrote that, over-reaching has become common but few hands have been slapped.

Why have intelligent and decent directors failed so miserably? The answer lies not in inadequate laws — it’s always been clear that directors are obligated to represent the interests of shareholders — but rather in what I’d call “boardroom atmosphere.”

It’s almost impossible, for example, in a boardroom populated by well-mannered people, to raise the question of whether the CEO should be replaced. It’s equally awkward to question a proposed acquisition that has been endorsed by the CEO, particularly when his inside staff and outside advisors are present and unanimously support his decision. (They wouldn’t be in the room if they didn’t.) Finally, when the compensation committee — armed, as always, with support from a high-paid consultant — reports on a megagrant of options to the CEO, it would be like belching at the dinner table for a director to suggest that the committee reconsider.

These “social” difficulties argue for outside directors regularly meeting without the CEO — a reform that is being instituted and that I enthusiastically endorse. I doubt, however, that most of the other new governance rules and recommendations will provide benefits commensurate with the monetary and other costs they impose.

The current cry is for “independent” directors. It is certainly true that it is desirable to have directors who think and speak independently — but they must also be business-savvy, interested and shareholder-oriented. In my 1993 commentary, those are the three qualities I described as essential.

Over a span of 40 years, I have been on 19 public-company boards (excluding Berkshire’s) and have interacted with perhaps 250 directors. Most of them were “independent” as defined by today’s rules. But the great majority of these directors lacked at least one of the three qualities I value. As a result, their contribution to shareholder well-being was minimal at best and, too often, negative. These people, decent and intelligent though they were, simply did not know enough about business and/or care enough about shareholders to question foolish acquisitions or egregious compensation. My own behavior, I must ruefully add, frequently fell short as well: Too often I was silent when management made proposals that I judged to be counter to the interests of shareholders. In those cases, collegiality trumped independence.

So that we may further see the failings of “independence,” let’s look at a 62-year case study covering thousands of companies. Since 1940, federal law has mandated that a large proportion of the directors of investment companies (most of these mutual funds) be independent. The requirement was originally 40% and now it is 50%. In any case, the typical fund has long operated with a majority of directors who qualify as independent.

These directors and the entire board have many perfunctory duties, but in actuality have only two important responsibilities: obtaining the best possible investment manager and negotiating with that manager for the lowest possible fee. When you are seeking investment help yourself, those two goals are the only ones that count, and directors acting for other investors should have exactly the same priorities. Yet when it comes to independent directors pursuing either goal, their record has been absolutely pathetic.

Many thousands of investment-company boards meet annually to carry out the vital job of selecting who will manage the savings of the millions of owners they represent. Year after year the directors of Fund A select manager A, Fund B directors select manager B, etc. … in a zombie-like process that makes a mockery of stewardship. Very occasionally, a board will revolt. But for the most part, a monkey will type out a Shakespeare play before an “independent” mutual-fund director will suggest that his fund look at other managers, even if the incumbent manager has persistently delivered substandard performance. When they are handling their own money, of course, directors will look to alternative advisors — but it never enters their minds to do so when they are acting as fiduciaries for others.

The hypocrisy permeating the system is vividly exposed when a fund management company — call it “A” — is sold for a huge sum to Manager “B”. Now the “independent” directors experience a “counterrevelation” and decide that Manager B is the best that can be found — even though B was available (and ignored) in previous years. Not so incidentally, B also could formerly have been hired at a far lower rate than is possible now that it has bought Manager A. That’s because B has laid out a fortune to acquire A, and B must now recoup that cost through fees paid by the A shareholders who were “delivered” as part of the deal. (For a terrific discussion of the mutual fund business, read John Bogle’s Common Sense on Mutual Funds.)

A few years ago, my daughter was asked to become a director of a family of funds managed by a major institution. The fees she would have received as a director were very substantial, enough to have increased her annual income by about 50% (a boost, she will tell you, she could use!). Legally, she would have been an independent director. But did the fund manager who approached her think there was any chance that she would think independently as to what advisor the fund should employ? Of course not. I am proud to say that she showed real independence by turning down the offer. The fund, however, had no trouble filling the slot (and — surprise — the fund has not changed managers).

Investment company directors have failed as well in negotiating management fees (just as compensation committees of many American companies have failed to hold the compensation of their CEOs to sensible levels). If you or I were empowered, I can assure you that we could easily negotiate materially lower management fees with the incumbent managers of most mutual funds. And, believe me, if directors were promised a portion of any fee savings they realized, the skies would be filled with falling fees. Under the current system, though, reductions mean nothing to “independent” directors while meaning everything to managers. So guess who wins?

Having the right money manager, of course, is far more important to a fund than reducing the manager’s fee. Both tasks are nonetheless the job of directors. And in stepping up to these all-important responsibilities, tens of thousands of “independent” directors, over more than six decades, have failed miserably. (They’ve succeeded, however, in taking care of themselves; their fees from serving on multiple boards of a single “family” of funds often run well into six figures.)

When the manager cares deeply and the directors don’t, what’s needed is a powerful countervailing force — and that’s the missing element in today’s corporate governance. Getting rid of mediocre CEOs and eliminating overreaching by the able ones requires action by owners — big owners. The logistics aren’t that tough: The ownership of stock has grown increasingly concentrated in recent decades, and today it would be easy for institutional managers to exert their will on problem situations. Twenty, or even fewer, of the largest institutions, acting together, could effectively reform corporate governance at a given company, simply by withholding their votes for directors who were tolerating odious behavior. In my view, this kind of concerted action is the only way that corporate stewardship can be meaningfully improved.

Unfortunately, certain major investing institutions have “glass house” problems in arguing for better governance elsewhere; they would shudder, for example, at the thought of their own performance and fees being closely inspected by their own boards. But Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame, Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, and Bill Miller of Legg Mason are now offering leadership in getting CEOs to treat their owners properly. Pension funds, as well as other fiduciaries, will reap better investment returns in the future if they support these men.

The acid test for reform will be CEO compensation. Managers will cheerfully agree to board “diversity,” attest to SEC filings and adopt meaningless proposals relating to process. What many will fight, however, is a hard look at their own pay and perks.

In recent years compensation committees too often have been tail-wagging puppy dogs meekly following recommendations by consultants, a breed not known for allegiance to the faceless shareholders who pay their fees. (If you can’t tell whose side someone is on, they are not on yours.) True, each committee is required by the SEC to state its reasoning about pay in the proxy. But the words are usually boilerplate written by the company’s lawyers or its human-relations department.

This costly charade should cease. Directors should not serve on compensation committees unless they are themselves capable of negotiating on behalf of owners. They should explain both how they think about pay and how they measure performance. Dealing with shareholders’ money, moreover, they should behave as they would were it their own.

In the 1890s, Samuel Gompers described the goal of organized labor as “More!” In the 1990s, America’s CEOs adopted his battle cry. The upshot is that CEOs have often amassed riches while their shareholders have experienced financial disasters.

Directors should stop such piracy. There’s nothing wrong with paying well for truly exceptional business performance. But, for anything short of that, it’s time for directors to shout “Less!” It would be a travesty if the bloated pay of recent years became a baseline for future compensation. Compensation committees should go back to the drawing boards.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Rules that have been proposed and that are almost certain to go into effect will require changes in Berkshire’s board, obliging us to add directors who meet the codified requirements for “independence.”

Doing so, we will add a test that we believe is important, but far from determinative, in fostering independence: We will select directors who have huge and true ownership interests (that is, stock that they or their family have purchased, not been given by Berkshire or received via options), expecting those interests to influence their actions to a degree that dwarfs other considerations such as prestige and board fees.

That gets to an often-overlooked point about directors’ compensation, which at public companies averages perhaps $50,000 annually. It baffles me how the many directors who look to these dollars for perhaps 20% or more of their annual income can be considered independent when Ron Olson, for example, who is on our board, may be deemed not independent because he receives a tiny percentage of his very large income from Berkshire legal fees. As the investment company saga suggests, a director whose moderate income is heavily dependent on directors’ fees — and who hopes mightily to be invited to join other boards in order to earn more fees — is highly unlikely to offend a CEO or fellow directors, who in a major way will determine his reputation in corporate circles. If regulators believe that “significant” money taints independence (and it certainly can), they have overlooked a massive class of possible offenders.

At Berkshire, wanting our fees to be meaningless to our directors, we pay them only a pittance. Additionally, not wanting to insulate our directors from any corporate disaster we might have, we don’t provide them with officers’ and directors’ liability insurance (an unorthodoxy that, not so incidentally, has saved our shareholders many millions of dollars over the years). Basically, we want the behavior of our directors to be driven by the effect their decisions will have on their family’s net worth, not by their compensation. That’s the equation for Charlie and me as managers, and we think it’s the right one for Berkshire directors as well.

To find new directors, we will look through our shareholders list for people who directly, or in their family, have had large Berkshire holdings — in the millions of dollars — for a long time. Individuals making that cut should automatically meet two of our tests, namely that they be interested in Berkshire and shareholder-oriented. In our third test, we will look for business savvy, a competence that is far from commonplace.

Finally, we will continue to have members of the Buffett family on the board. They are not there to run the business after I die, nor will they then receive compensation of any kind. Their purpose is to ensure, for both our shareholders and managers, that Berkshire’s special culture will be nurtured when I’m succeeded by other CEOs.

Any change we make in the composition of our board will not alter the way Charlie and I run Berkshire. We will continue to emphasize substance over form in our work and waste as little time as possible during board meetings in show-and-tell and perfunctory activities. The most important job of our board is likely to be the selection of successors to Charlie and me, and that is a matter upon which it will focus.

The board we have had up to now has overseen a shareholder-oriented business, consistently run in accord with the economic principles set forth on pages 68-74 (which I urge all new shareholders to read). Our goal is to obtain new directors who are equally devoted to those principles.

审计委员会

审计委员会不能进行审计。只有公司的外部审计师才能确定管理层声称的盈利是否可疑。忽视这一现实而专注于审计委员会结构和章程的改革将收效甚微。

正如我们讨论过的,近年来有太多管理者使用通常合法但仍然严重误导投资者的会计和运营手段,篡改了公司的数字。审计师常常知道这些欺骗行为。但太多时候,他们保持沉默。审计委员会的关键工作就是让审计师透露他们所知道的情况。

要做到这一点,委员会必须确保审计师更担心误导委员会成员,而不是冒犯管理层。近年来审计师并没有这种感觉。他们反而普遍将CEO而不是股东或董事视为他们的客户。这是日常工作关系的自然结果,也是因为审计师明白,无论书本上怎么说,CEO和CFO支付他们的费用,并决定他们是否被保留以进行审计和其他工作。最近制定的规则不会实质性地改变这一现实。能够打破这种舒适关系的,是审计委员会明确地让审计师处于压力之下,让他们明白,如果他们不透露他们所知道或怀疑的情况,他们将承担重大金钱处罚的责任。

在我看来,审计委员会可以通过向审计师提出四个问题来实现这一目标,这些问题的答案应被记录并报告给股东。这些问题如下:

  1. 如果审计师单独负责编制公司的财务报表,他们是否会以与管理层选择的任何方式不同的方式编制?这个问题应涵盖重大和非重大差异。如果审计师会采取不同的做法,那么管理层的论点和审计师的回应都应被披露。审计委员会随后应评估这些事实。
  2. 如果审计师是一位投资者,他是否会收到——用浅显易懂的语言——理解报告期内公司财务业绩所必需的信息?
  3. 公司是否遵循了如果审计师本人是CEO会遵循的相同内部审计程序?如果不是,差异在哪里,为什么?
  4. 审计师是否知道任何——无论是会计还是运营方面的——旨在并具有将收入或费用从一个报告期转移到另一个报告期效果的行动?

如果审计委员会提出这些问题,其组成——大多数改革的焦点——就变得次要了。此外,这个程序将节省时间和费用。当审计师被置于压力之下时,他们会尽到自己的职责。如果他们没有被置于压力之下……那么,我们已经看到了结果。

我们列举的这些问题应至少在盈利报告向公众发布前一周提出。这个时机将使审计师和管理层之间的分歧能够在委员会面前得到讨论和解决。如果时间更紧——如果审计师和委员会互动时盈利发布在即——委员会将感到有压力去草率批准准备好的数字。仓促是准确性的敌人。事实上,我的想法是,SEC最近缩短报告截止日期的做法将损害股东获得的信息质量。查理和芒格认为这条规则是一个错误,应该被废除。

我们四个问题的主要优势在于它们将起到预防作用。一旦审计师知道审计委员会将要求他们明确认可,而不仅仅是默许管理层的行为,他们就会在流程早期抵制不当行为,远在似是而非的数字根植于公司账簿之前。对原告律师的恐惧将确保这一点。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

《芝加哥论坛报》去年九月刊登了一个关于安达信的四部分系列报道,出色地阐明了会计标准和审计质量在近年来是如何被侵蚀的。几十年前,安达信的审计意见是行业的黄金标准。在事务所内部,一个精英的专业标准小组(PSG)坚持诚实的报告,无论客户施加何种压力。坚持这些原则,PSG在1992年采取了立场,认为股票期权的成本应该作为其明确代表的费用来记录。然而,PSG的立场被安达信那些知道客户想要什么——无论现实如何,更高的报告利润——的“造雨”合伙人推翻了。许多CEO也反对费用化,因为他们知道,如果他们渴望的令人发指的巨额期权赠予的真实成本必须被记录,这些赠予将被削减。

在安达信立场逆转后不久,独立的会计准则委员会(FASB)以7比0投票赞成期权费用化。可以预见的是,主要的审计公司和一群CEO涌向华盛顿,向参议院施压——还有什么更好的机构来决定会计问题?——以阉割FASB。抗议者的声音通过他们大量的政治捐款被放大,这些捐款通常使用的是公司资金,而这些资金属于即将被愚弄的那些所有者。这不是公民课应该看到的景象。

可耻的是,参议院以88比9的投票反对费用化。几位知名参议员甚至呼吁,如果FASB不放弃其立场,就解散它。(独立性也不过如此。)时任SEC主席的小阿瑟·莱维特——通常是股东警惕的捍卫者——后来将他勉强屈服于国会和公司压力的行为描述为他担任主席期间最遗憾的事。(这件丑闻的细节在莱维特的优秀著作《走上街头》中有所叙述。)

由于参议院在其口袋中,SEC又力不从心,美国公司意识到在会计问题上现在是它们说了算。随之而来的是一个全新的、无所顾忌的盈利报告时代——得到知名审计师祝福,在某些情况下甚至鼓励——被开启了。随后发生的放纵行为迅速成为大泡沫的打气筒。

在受到参议院威胁后,FASB退出了其最初的立场,并采用了一种“荣誉制度”的方法,宣布费用化是可取的,但也允许公司如果愿意则忽略成本。令人沮丧的结果是:标准普尔500家公司中,有498家采用了被认为不太可取的方法,这当然让它们能够报告更高的“利润”。渴望薪酬的CEO们喜欢这个结果:让FASB拥有荣誉;他们拥有系统。

在我们1992年的年报中,在讨论太多CEO不体面且自私的行为时,我说:“商业精英在对其自身至关重要的问题上主张令人难以置信的事情时,冒着失去在对社会重要问题(关于这些问题他们也许有很多有价值的话要说)上信誉的风险。”

这种信誉的丧失已经发生。CEO们现在的工作是重新赢得美国的信任——为了国家的利益,他们这样做很重要。然而,他们不会通过愚蠢的广告、毫无意义的政策声明或董事会和委员会的结构性变革来成功实现这一努力。相反,CEO们必须将受托责任作为一种生活方式来拥抱,并将他们的所有者视为合作伙伴,而非替罪羊。是时候让CEO们言行一致了。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

给投资者的三个建议:第一,警惕那些会计薄弱的公司。如果一家公司仍然不将期权费用化,或者其养老金假设很离谱,要小心。当管理层在可见的方面采取低标准时,他们很可能在幕后也遵循类似的路径。厨房里很少只有一只蟑螂。

鼓吹EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润)是一种特别有害的做法。这样做意味着折旧不是真正的费用,因为它是一项“非现金”支出。这是胡说八道。实际上,折旧是一种特别没有吸引力的费用,因为它所代表的现金支出是在资产为业务带来任何收益之前预付的。试想一下,如果今年年初,一家公司为其员工未来十年的服务支付了全部工资(方式如同他们为一项可使用十年的固定资产预先支付现金)。在接下来的九年里,薪酬将是一项“非现金”费用——减少了今年建立的预付薪酬资产。有谁愿意争论第二年到第十年记录的费用仅仅是簿记形式吗?

第二,难以理解的脚注通常意味着不可信的管理层。如果你无法理解脚注或其他管理层的解释,通常是因为CEO不想让你理解。安然对某些交易的描述至今仍让我困惑。

最后,要警惕那些吹嘘盈利预测和增长预期的公司。商业很少在平静、毫无意外的环境中运行,盈利根本不会平滑地增长(当然,除了在投资银行的发行说明书中)。

查理和芒格不仅今天不知道我们企业明年会赚多少钱——我们甚至不知道它们下个季度会赚多少。我们怀疑那些经常声称知道未来的CEO们——如果他们始终如一地达到他们宣称的目标,我们就会变得完全不相信。总是承诺“达成数字”的管理者,总有一天会忍不住编造数字。

原文

The Audit Committee

Audit committees can’t audit. Only a company’s outside auditor can determine whether the earnings that a management purports to have made are suspect. Reforms that ignore this reality and that instead focus on the structure and charter of the audit committee will accomplish little.

As we’ve discussed, far too many managers have fudged their company’s numbers in recent years, using both accounting and operational techniques that are typically legal but that nevertheless materially mislead investors. Frequently, auditors knew about these deceptions. Too often, however, they remained silent. The key job of the audit committee is simply to get the auditors to divulge what they know.

To do this job, the committee must make sure that the auditors worry more about misleading its members than about offending management. In recent years auditors have not felt that way. They have instead generally viewed the CEO, rather than the shareholders or directors, as their client. That has been a natural result of day-to-day working relationships and also of the auditors’ understanding that, no matter what the book says, the CEO and CFO pay their fees and determine whether they are retained for both auditing and other work. The rules that have been recently instituted won’t materially change this reality. What will break this cozy relationship is audit committees unequivocally putting auditors on the spot, making them understand they will become liable for major monetary penalties if they don’t come forth with what they know or suspect.

In my opinion, audit committees can accomplish this goal by asking four questions of auditors, the answers to which should be recorded and reported to shareholders. These questions are:

  1. If the auditor were solely responsible for preparation of the company’s financial statements, would they have in any way been prepared differently from the manner selected by management? This question should cover both material and nonmaterial differences. If the auditor would have done something differently, both management’s argument and the auditor’s response should be disclosed. The audit committee should then evaluate the facts.

  2. If the auditor were an investor, would he have received — in plain English — the information essential to his understanding the company’s financial performance during the reporting period? 3. Is the company following the same internal audit procedure that would be followed if the auditor himself were CEO? If not, what are the differences and why?

  3. Is the auditor aware of any actions — either accounting or operational — that have had the purpose and effect of moving revenues or expenses from one reporting period to another?

If the audit committee asks these questions, its composition — the focus of most reforms — is of minor importance. In addition, the procedure will save time and expense. When auditors are put on the spot, they will do their duty. If they are not put on the spot … well, we have seen the results of that.

The questions we have enumerated should be asked at least a week before an earnings report is released to the public. That timing will allow differences between the auditors and management to be aired with the committee and resolved. If the timing is tighter — if an earnings release is imminent when the auditors and committee interact — the committee will feel pressure to rubberstamp the prepared figures. Haste is the enemy of accuracy. My thinking, in fact, is that the SEC’s recent shortening of reporting deadlines will hurt the quality of information that shareholders receive. Charlie and I believe that rule is a mistake and should be rescinded.

The primary advantage of our four questions is that they will act as a prophylactic. Once the auditors know that the audit committee will require them to affirmatively endorse, rather than merely acquiesce to, management’s actions, they will resist misdoings early in the process, well before specious figures become embedded in the company’s books. Fear of the plaintiff’s bar will see to that.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

The Chicago Tribune ran a four-part series on Arthur Andersen last September that did a great job of illuminating how accounting standards and audit quality have eroded in recent years. A few decades ago, an Arthur Andersen audit opinion was the gold standard of the profession. Within the firm, an elite Professional Standards Group (PSG) insisted on honest reporting, no matter what pressures were applied by the client. Sticking to these principles, the PSG took a stand in 1992 that the cost of stock options should be recorded as the expense it clearly was. The PSG’s position was reversed, however, by the “rainmaking” partners of Andersen who knew what their clients wanted — higher reported earnings no matter what the reality. Many CEOs also fought expensing because they knew that the obscene megagrants of options they craved would be slashed if the true costs of these had to be recorded.

Soon after the Andersen reversal, the independent accounting standards board (FASB) voted 7-0 for expensing options. Predictably, the major auditing firms and an army of CEOs stormed Washington to pressure the Senate — what better institution to decide accounting questions? — into castrating the FASB. The voices of the protesters were amplified by their large political contributions, usually made with corporate money belonging to the very owners about to be bamboozled. It was not a sight for a civics class.

To its shame, the Senate voted 88-9 against expensing. Several prominent Senators even called for the demise of the FASB if it didn’t abandon its position. (So much for independence.) Arthur Levitt, Jr., then Chairman of the SEC — and generally a vigilant champion of shareholders — has since described his reluctant bowing to Congressional and corporate pressures as the act of his chairmanship that he most regrets. (The details of this sordid affair are related in Levitt’s excellent book, Take on the Street.)

With the Senate in its pocket and the SEC outgunned, corporate America knew that it was now boss when it came to accounting. With that, a new era of anything-goes earnings reports — blessed and, in some cases, encouraged by big-name auditors — was launched. The licentious behavior that followed quickly became an air pump for The Great Bubble.

After being threatened by the Senate, FASB backed off its original position and adopted an “honor system” approach, declaring expensing to be preferable but also allowing companies to ignore the cost if they wished. The disheartening result: Of the 500 companies in the S&P, 498 adopted the method deemed less desirable, which of course let them report higher “earnings.” Compensation-hungry CEOs loved this outcome: Let FASB have the honor; they had the system.

In our 1992 annual report, discussing the unseemly and self-serving behavior of so many CEOs, I said “the business elite risks losing its credibility on issues of significance to society — about which it may have much of value to say — when it advocates the incredible on issues of significance to itself.”

That loss of credibility has occurred. The job of CEOs is now to regain America’s trust — and for the country’s sake it’s important that they do so. They will not succeed in this endeavor, however, by way of fatuous ads, meaningless policy statements, or structural changes of boards and committees. Instead, CEOs must embrace stewardship as a way of life and treat their owners as partners, not patsies. It’s time for CEOs to walk the walk.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Three suggestions for investors: First, beware of companies displaying weak accounting. If a company still does not expense options, or if its pension assumptions are fanciful, watch out. When managements take the low road in aspects that are visible, it is likely they are following a similar path behind the scenes. There is seldom just one cockroach in the kitchen.

Trumpeting EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is a particularly pernicious practice. Doing so implies that depreciation is not truly an expense, given that it is a “non-cash” charge. That’s nonsense. In truth, depreciation is a particularly unattractive expense because the cash outlay it represents is paid up front, before the asset acquired has delivered any benefits to the business. Imagine, if you will, that at the beginning of this year a company paid all of its employees for the next ten years of their service (in the way they would lay out cash for a fixed asset to be useful for ten years). In the following nine years, compensation would be a “non-cash” expense — a reduction of a prepaid compensation asset established this year. Would anyone care to argue that the recording of the expense in years two through ten would be simply a bookkeeping formality?

Second, unintelligible footnotes usually indicate untrustworthy management. If you can’t understand a footnote or other managerial explanation, it’s usually because the CEO doesn’t want you to. Enron’s descriptions of certain transactions still baffle me.

Finally, be suspicious of companies that trumpet earnings projections and growth expectations. Businesses seldom operate in a tranquil, no-surprise environment, and earnings simply don’t advance smoothly (except, of course, in the offering books of investment bankers).

Charlie and I not only don’t know today what our businesses will earn next year — we don’t even know what they will earn next quarter. We are suspicious of those CEOs who regularly claim they do know the future — and we become downright incredulous if they consistently reach their declared targets. Managers that always promise to “make the numbers” will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers.

股东指定捐款

约97.3%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔2002年的股东指定捐款计划,捐款总额为1650万美元。

累计而言,在该计划运行的22年中,伯克希尔已根据股东的指示捐款1.97亿美元。伯克希尔其余捐款由我们的子公司进行,它们遵循在被收购前流行的慈善模式(除了其前所有者自己承担个人慈善的责任)。总的来说,我们的子公司在2002年共捐款2400万美元,其中包括价值400万美元的实物捐赠。

要参与未来的计划,您必须拥有以实际所有者名义注册的A类股,而不是以经纪人、银行或存管机构的代名人名义注册。在2003年8月31日未如此注册的股份将无资格参与2003年的计划。当您从我们这里收到捐款表格时,请及时返还,以免被搁置或遗忘。逾期收到的指定将不被兑现。

原文

Shareholder-Designated Contributions

About 97.3% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire’s 2002 shareholder-designated contributions program, with contributions totaling $16.5 million.

Cumulatively, over the 22 years of the program, Berkshire has made contributions of $197 million pursuant to the instructions of our shareholders. The rest of Berkshire’s giving is done by our subsidiaries, which stick to the philanthropic patterns that prevailed before they were acquired (except that their former owners themselves take on the responsibility for their personal charities). In aggregate, our subsidiaries made contributions of $24 million in 2002, including in-kind donations of $4 million.

To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 2003 will be ineligible for the 2003 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten. Designations received after the due date will not be honored.

年会

今年的年会将于5月3日星期六举行,我们将再次在市政礼堂举行。大门将于早上7点打开,电影将于8点30分开始,会议本身将于9点30分开始。中午将有短暂的食物休息时间。(三明治将在市政厅的售货亭有售。)除了这个休息时间,查理和芒格将一直回答问题直到下午3点30分。请向我们提出您最犀利的问题。

随此报告附上的委托材料附件说明了您如何获得参加会议和其他活动所需的凭证。至于飞机、酒店和汽车预订,我们再次与运通公司(800-799-6634)签约,为您提供特别帮助。他们每年都为我们做得非常出色,我对此表示感谢。

按照我们的惯例,我们将从较大的酒店安排面包车前往会场。之后,面包车将返回酒店,并前往内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝店和机场。即便如此,您可能还是会发现租车很有用。

我们伯克希尔产品和服务展区今年将比以往任何时候都更大更好。所以准备好花钱吧。我想您会特别喜欢参观The Pampered Chef的展位,在那里您可能会遇到多丽丝和希拉。

GEICO将设立一个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶级顾问提供服务,他们都准备好向您提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下,GEICO能够为您提供特别的股东折扣(通常为8%)。此特别优惠在我们运营的49个司法管辖区中的41个获得许可。请带上您现有保险的详细信息,看看我们能否为您省钱。

星期六,在奥马哈机场,我们将有NetJets®的常规系列飞机供您参观。只需向市政厅的代表咨询如何参观这些飞机。如果您在周末购买了我们认为足够数量的物品,您很可能需要自己的飞机才能把它们带回家。此外,如果您购买了一架飞机的部分所有权,我将亲自确保您获得一包三件的Fruit of the Loom内裤。

在内布拉斯加家具城(位于72街,道奇街和太平洋街之间,占地77英亩),我们将再次提供“伯克希尔周末”定价,这意味着我们将向我们的股东提供通常只给予员工的折扣。我们六年前在NFM开始这项特殊定价,该“周末”期间的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2002年的1420万美元。

要获得折扣,您必须在5月1日星期四至5月5日星期一期间进行购买,并出示您的会议凭证。该期间的特殊定价甚至适用于几个知名制造商的产品,这些制造商通常对有禁止折扣的严格规定,但本着我们股东周末的精神,为您破例。我们感谢他们的合作。NFM工作日营业时间为上午10点至晚上9点,周日上午10点至下午6点。今年星期六晚上6点到10点,我们将为股东举办一场特别活动。我会在那里吃热狗,喝可口可乐。

波仙珠宝店——除蒂芙尼曼哈顿店外全国最大的珠宝店——将举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月2日星期五下午6点至晚上10点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场,也是主要的庆祝活动,将于5月4日星期日上午9点至下午5点举行。请让查理在您的销售票据上签名。

股东价格将在周四至周一期间有效,因此如果您想避开周五晚上和周日聚集的大量人群,请在其他时间前来并表明自己是股东。星期六,我们将营业至下午6点。波仙的毛利率比其主要竞争对手低整整二十个百分点,所以你买得越多,省得越多(至少我妻子和女儿是这么告诉我的)。

在波仙门外的商场里,周日下午我们将安排一些世界顶尖桥牌专家与我们的股东对弈。我们预计鲍勃·哈曼、莎伦·奥斯伯格、弗雷德·吉特尔曼和谢里·温斯托克将主持牌桌。曾两次获得美国国际象棋冠军的帕特里克·沃尔夫也将在商场里,与所有挑战者对弈——而且是蒙着眼睛!去年,帕特里克同时进行了六场比赛——牢固地戴着蒙眼布——并首次遭遇了失利。(不过他赢了其他五场比赛。)此后他一直在加班训练,并计划今年开启新的连胜纪录。

此外,仅有的两位两次赢得世界双陆棋锦标赛冠军之一的比尔·罗伯特里将在现场测试您在双陆棋方面的技能。最后,我们还将迎来一位新人:1991年世界拼字游戏冠军彼得·莫里斯。彼得将同时在五个棋盘上进行游戏(不过他不蒙眼),并且允许他的挑战者查阅拼字词典。

我们还要在商场测试您的歌喉。我的朋友,费城的阿尔·厄尔利将在钢琴旁演奏任何调式的任何歌曲。苏茜和芒格将带领大家唱歌。唱得很好。

戈拉特牛排馆——我最喜欢的牛排馆——将于5月4日星期日再次专门为伯克希尔股东开放,营业时间为下午4点至晚上10点。请记住,要在周日去戈拉特,您必须有预订。要预订,请于4月1日(但不要在此之前)致电402-551-3733。如果周日已满,请尝试在您进城期间的其他晚上去戈拉特。点一份带双层土豆泥的烤T骨牛排,以显示您的 sophistication。

今年没有棒球比赛了。去年我的快球速度被计时为5英里/小时后,我决定挂靴了。那么,我们星期六晚上在NFM见。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

明年我们的会议将在奥马哈的新会议中心举行。地点变更将使我们能够在星期六或星期一举行会议,具体取决于你们多数人的偏好。请使用附上的专用选票,投票选出您的偏好——但只有在您将来有可能参加的情况下才投

我们将根据股东人数(而非股份数)来做星期六/星期一的决定。也就是说,持有一股B类股的股东将与持有许多股份的A类股股东拥有同等投票权。如果投票结果接近,我们将遵循外地与会者的偏好。

再次提醒,只有在您将来有合理可能参加某些会议的情况下才投票。

2003年2月21日

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

原文

The Annual Meeting

This year’s annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 3, and once again we will be at the Civic Auditorium. The doors will open at 7 a.m., the movie will begin at 8:30, and the meeting itself will commence at 9:30. There will be a short break at noon for food. (Sandwiches will be available at the Civic’s concession stands.) That interlude aside, Charlie and I will answer questions until 3:30. Give us your best shot.

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. They do a terrific job for us each year, and I thank them for it.

In our usual fashion, we will run vans from the larger hotels to the meeting. Afterwards, the vans will make trips back to the hotels and to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim’s and the airport. Even so, you are likely to find a car useful.

Our exhibit area for Berkshire goods and services will be bigger and better than ever this year. So be prepared to spend. I think you will particularly enjoy visiting The Pampered Chef display, where you may run into Doris and Sheila.

GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 41 of the 49 jurisdictions in which we operate. Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money.

On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets® available for your inspection. Just ask a representative at the Civic about viewing any of these planes. If you buy what we consider an appropriate number of items during the weekend, you may well need your own plane to take them home. Furthermore, if you buy a fraction of a plane, I’ll personally see that you get a three-pack of briefs from Fruit of the Loom.

At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” pricing, which means we will be offering our shareholders a discount that is customarily given only to employees. We initiated this special pricing at NFM six years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $14.2 million in 2002.

To get the discount, you must make your purchases during the Thursday, May 1 through Monday, May 5 period and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sundays. On Saturday this year, from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m., we are having a special affair for shareholders only. I’ll be there, eating hot dogs and drinking Coke.

Borsheim’s — the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany’s Manhattan store — will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, May 2. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Sunday, May 4. Ask Charlie to autograph your sales ticket.

Shareholder prices will be available Thursday through Monday, so if you wish to avoid the large crowds that will assemble on Friday evening and Sunday, come at other times and identify yourself as a shareholder. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. Borsheim’s operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, so the more you buy, the more you save (or at least that’s what my wife and daughter tell me).

In the mall outside of Borsheim’s, we will have some of the world’s top bridge experts available to play with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. We expect Bob Hamman, Sharon Osberg, Fred Gitelman and Sheri Winestock to host tables. Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will also be in the mall, taking on all comers — blindfolded! Last year, Patrick played six games simultaneously — with his blindfold securely in place — and for the first time suffered a loss. (He won the other five games, however.) He’s been training overtime ever since and is planning to start a new streak this year.

Additionally, Bill Robertie, one of only two players who have twice won the backgammon world championship, will be on hand to test your skill at that game. Finally, we will have a newcomer: Peter Morris, the winner of the World Scrabble Championship in 1991. Peter will play on five boards simultaneously (no blindfold for him, however) and will also allow his challengers to consult a Scrabble dictionary.

We are also going to test your vocal chords at the mall. My friend, Al Oehrle of Philadelphia, will be at the piano to play any song in any key. Susie and I will lead the singing. She is good.

Gorat’s — my favorite steakhouse — will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 4, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that to come to Gorat’s on Sunday, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1 (but not before). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat’s on one of the other evenings you will be in town. Show your sophistication by ordering a rare T-bone with a double order of hash browns.

There won’t be a ball game this year. After my fastball was clocked at 5 mph last year, I decided to hang up my spikes. So I’ll see you on Saturday night at NFM instead.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Next year our meeting will be held at Omaha’s new convention center. This switch in locations will allow us to hold the event on either Saturday or Monday, whichever the majority of you prefer. Using the enclosed special ballot, please vote for your preference — but only if you are likely to attend in the future.

We will make the Saturday/Monday decision based upon a count of shareholders, not shares. That is, a Class B shareholder owning one share will have a vote equal to that of a Class A shareholder owning many shares. If the vote is close, we will go with the preference of out-of-towners.

Again, please vote only if there is a reasonable chance that you will be attending some meetings in the future.

February 21, 2003

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board

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