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2004年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东信
第一部分
截至2004年底,我们的净值增加了83亿美元,这使得A类股和B类股的每股账面价值均增长了10.5%。在过去的40年里(即自现任管理层接手以来),账面价值已从19美元增长至55,824美元,年复合增长率为21.9%。*
*本报告使用的所有数据均适用于伯克希尔的A类股,它是公司在1996年之前唯一发行在外的股票的继承者。B类股的经济权益相当于A类股的1/30。
原文
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
Our gain in net worth during 2004 was $8.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 10.5%. Over the last 40 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $55,824, a rate of 21.9% compounded annually.*
*All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.
然而,真正重要的是每股内在价值,而非账面价值。在这方面,好消息是:从1964年到2004年,伯克希尔从一家苦苦挣扎的北方纺织企业(其内在价值低于账面价值)转变为一个多元化的企业集团,其价值远超账面价值。因此,我们40年的内在价值增长,实际上略微超过了21.9%的账面价值增长。(关于内在价值以及指导查理·芒格——我的合伙人和伯克希尔副董事长——与我经营伯克希尔的经济原则的解释,请阅读我们从第73页开始的《所有者手册》。)
原文
It’s per-share intrinsic value that counts, however, not book value. Here, the news is good: Between 1964 and 2004, Berkshire morphed from a struggling northern textile business whose intrinsic value was less than book into a diversified enterprise worth far more than book. Our 40-year gain in intrinsic value has therefore somewhat exceeded our 21.9% gain in book. (For an explanation of intrinsic value and the economic principles that guide Charlie Munger, my partner and Berkshire’s vice-chairman, and me in running Berkshire, please read our Owner’s Manual, beginning on page 73.)
尽管存在缺陷,但每年计算账面价值在伯克希尔仍然有用,可以作为衡量我们内在价值长期增长率的略微保守的指标。然而,在评估任何单一年度业绩与标普500指数的对比(我们在对面页展示这一比较)时,这些计算的相关性已不如从前。我们的股权投资(包括可转换优先股)占净值的比例已大幅下降,例如,从20世纪80年代平均114%降至近年来的不足50%。因此,股票市场的年度波动现在对我们净值的影响比过去小得多,这一事实通常会导致我们在股票大幅上涨的年份表现不佳,而在股票下跌的年份表现优异。
原文
Despite their shortcomings, yearly calculations of book value are useful at Berkshire as a slightly understated gauge for measuring the long-term rate of increase in our intrinsic value. The calculations are less relevant, however, than they once were in rating any single year’s performance versus the S&P 500 index (a comparison we display on the facing page). Our equity holdings (including convertible preferreds) have fallen considerably as a percentage of our net worth, from an average of 114% in the 1980s, for example, to less than 50% in recent years. Therefore, yearly movements in the stock market now affect a much smaller portion of our net worth than was once the case, a fact that will normally cause us to underperform in years when stocks rise substantially and overperform in years when they fall.
无论年度比较结果如何,伯克希尔相对于标普500指数的长期表现始终至关重要。我们的股东可以通过指数基金以非常低的成本购买标普500指数。除非我们未来在每股内在价值增长方面能够超越标普500指数,否则查理和我就没有为你们自己能够实现的目标增添任何价值。
原文
However the yearly comparisons work out, Berkshire’s long-term performance versus the S&P remains all-important. Our shareholders can buy the S&P through an index fund at very low cost. Unless we achieve gains in per-share intrinsic value in the future that outdo the S&P, Charlie and I will be adding nothing to what you can accomplish on your own.
去年,伯克希尔的账面价值增长10.5%,略低于标普500指数10.9%的回报率。我们表现平平并非由于我们运营公司CEO们的失误:像往常一样,他们承担了超出自身份额的重任。我给他们传递的信息很简单:经营你的企业,就像它是你家人在未来一百年将拥有的唯一资产。他们几乎总是这样做,并在满足企业需求后,将多余的现金送往奥马哈让我来配置。
原文
Last year, Berkshire’s book-value gain of 10.5% fell short of the index’s 10.9% return. Our lackluster performance was not due to any stumbles by the CEOs of our operating businesses: As always, they pulled more than their share of the load. My message to them is simple: Run your business as if it were the only asset your family will own over the next hundred years. Almost invariably they do just that and, after taking care of the needs of their business, send excess cash to Omaha for me to deploy.
去年我在那项工作上做得不是很好。我本希望进行几项数十亿美元的收购,为我们已经拥有的众多盈利流增添新的、重要的来源。但我颗粒无收。此外,我几乎没找到有吸引力的证券可以购买。因此,伯克希尔在年底持有430亿美元的现金等价物,这不是一个令人愉快的状况。查理和我会在2005年努力将部分这些资金转化为更有趣的资产,尽管我们不能保证成功。
原文
I didn’t do that job very well last year. My hope was to make several multi-billion dollar acquisitions that would add new and significant streams of earnings to the many we already have. But I struck out. Additionally, I found very few attractive securities to buy. Berkshire therefore ended the year with $43 billion of cash equivalents, not a happy position. Charlie and I will work to translate some of this hoard into more interesting assets during 2005, though we can’t promise success.
从某个方面来说,2004年对股市来说是引人注目的一年,这一事实埋藏在第2页错综复杂的数字中。如果你研究自20世纪60年代末以来的35年,你会发现,投资者持有标普500指数获得的回报(包括股息)平均为每年11.2%(远高于我们对未来回报的预期)。但如果你寻找回报率接近11.2%的年份——比如在8%到14%之间——你会发现,在2004年之前只有一年。换句话说,去年所谓的”正常”回报绝非正常。
原文
In one respect, 2004 was a remarkable year for the stock market, a fact buried in the maze of numbers on page 2. If you examine the 35 years since the 1960s ended, you will find that an investor’s return, including dividends, from owning the S&P has averaged 11.2% annually (well above what we expect future returns to be). But if you look for years with returns anywhere close to that 11.2% — say, between 8% and 14% — you will find only one before 2004. In other words, last year’s “normal” return is anything but.
在这35年里,美国企业取得了出色的业绩。因此,投资者本应很容易获得丰厚的回报:他们只需以多元化、低成本的方式搭乘美国企业的便车。一个他们从未动过的指数基金就能做到这一点。然而,许多投资者的经历却是从平庸到灾难不等。
原文
Over the 35 years, American business has delivered terrific results. It should therefore have been easy for investors to earn juicy returns: All they had to do was piggyback Corporate America in a diversified, low-expense way. An index fund that they never touched would have done the job. Instead many investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous.
主要有三个原因:第一,高成本,通常是因为投资者交易过度或在投资管理上花费过多;第二,基于小道消息和潮流而非对企业进行深思熟虑、量化评估的投资组合决策;第三,以不合时宜的进场(在上涨持续很久之后)和出场(在停滞或下跌时期之后)为标志的断断续续的市场参与方式。投资者应该记住,兴奋和费用是他们的敌人。如果他们执意要尝试把握参与股市的时机,他们应该努力在别人贪婪时恐惧,只在别人恐惧时贪婪。
原文
There have been three primary causes: first, high costs, usually because investors traded excessively or spent far too much on investment management; second, portfolio decisions based on tips and fads rather than on thoughtful, quantified evaluation of businesses; and third, a start-and-stop approach to the market marked by untimely entries (after an advance has been long underway) and exits (after periods of stagnation or decline). Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.
业务板块业绩
作为经理人,查理和我想向我们的所有者提供如果角色互换我们希望收到的财务信息和解说。随着伯克希尔业务范围的扩大,要清晰且合理地简洁地做到这一点变得越来越困难。我们的一些业务与其他业务在经济特征上差异巨大,这意味着我们的合并报表,以其混杂的数字,几乎无法进行有用的分析。
原文
Sector Results
As managers, Charlie and I want to give our owners the financial information and commentary we would wish to receive if our roles were reversed. To do this with both clarity and reasonable brevity becomes more difficult as Berkshire’s scope widens. Some of our businesses have vastly different economic characteristics from others, which means that our consolidated statements, with their jumble of figures, make useful analysis almost impossible.
在接下来的几页中,我们将展示来自我们四大业务类别的一些资产负债表和盈利数据,并附上对每类的评述。我们特别希望你们理解我们会在何种有限的情况下使用债务,因为我们通常回避债务。然而,我们不会用对评估伯克希尔内在价值没有实际价值的数据来淹没你们。这样做往往会混淆关键事实。
原文
On the following pages, therefore, we will present some balance sheet and earnings figures from our four major categories of businesses along with commentary about each. We particularly want you to understand the limited circumstances under which we will use debt, given that we typically shun it. We will not, however, inundate you with data that has no real value in estimating Berkshire’s intrinsic value. Doing so would tend to obfuscate the facts that count.
受监管的公用事业业务
我们持有中美能源控股公司80.5%(完全稀释后)的权益,该公司拥有多种公用事业运营业务。其中最大的是:(1)约克郡电力和北方电力,其370万电力用户使其成为英国第三大电力分销商;(2)中美能源,主要为爱荷华州的69.8万电力用户提供服务;(3)克恩河和北方天然气管线,输送美国消费的7.9%的天然气。
原文
Regulated Utility Businesses
We have an 80.5% (fully diluted) interest in MidAmerican Energy Holdings, which owns a wide variety of utility operations. The largest of these are (1) Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric, whose 3.7 million electric customers make it the third largest distributor of electricity in the U.K.; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which serves 698,000 electric customers, primarily in Iowa; and (3) Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines, which carry 7.9% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S.
中美能源剩余19.5%的股份由我们的三位合伙人持有:戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔——这些业务的杰出管理者,以及沃尔特·斯科特——我的老朋友,他把我引荐给了这家公司。由于中美能源受《公共事业控股公司法》的约束,伯克希尔的投票权被限制在9.9%。投票控制权掌握在沃尔特手中。
原文
The remaining 19.5% of MidAmerican is owned by three partners of ours: Dave Sokol and Greg Abel, the brilliant managers of these businesses, and Walter Scott, a long-time friend of mine who introduced me to the company. Because MidAmerican is subject to the Public Utility Holding Company Act (“PUHCA”), Berkshire’s voting interest is limited to 9.9%. Voting control rests with Walter.
我们有限的投票权迫使我们以简略的方式对中美能源进行会计处理。我们并没有将公司的资产、负债、收入和费用完全合并到伯克希尔的报表中,而是在我们的资产负债表和利润表中仅做单行分录。不过,很可能有一天——也许很快——《公共事业控股公司法》会被废除,或者会计规则会改变。届时,伯克希尔的合并数据将包含中美能源的全部,包括其使用的大量债务(尽管这笔债务现在不是,将来也永远不会成为伯克希尔的负债)。
原文
Our limited voting interest forces us to account for MidAmerican in an abbreviated manner. Instead of our fully incorporating the company’s assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses into Berkshire’s statements, we make one-line entries only in both our balance sheet and income account. It’s likely, though, that PUHCA will someday — perhaps soon — be repealed or that accounting rules will change. Berkshire’s consolidated figures would then incorporate all of MidAmerican, including the substantial debt it utilizes (though this debt is not now, nor will it ever be, an obligation of Berkshire).
年底,中美能源有14.78亿美元的次级债务应付给伯克希尔。这笔债务使得收购融资无需我们的合伙人增加他们已经相当可观的中美能源投资。通过收取11%的利息,伯克希尔为提供购买所需资金获得了公平的补偿,同时我们的合伙人避免了其股权的稀释。由于中美能源去年没有进行大规模收购,它偿还了所欠我们的1亿美元。
原文
At yearend, $1.478 billion of MidAmerican’s junior debt was payable to Berkshire. This debt has allowed acquisitions to be financed without our partners needing to increase their already substantial investments in MidAmerican. By charging 11% interest, Berkshire is compensated fairly for putting up the funds needed for purchases, while our partners are spared dilution of their equity interests. Because MidAmerican made no large acquisitions last year, it paid down $100 million of what it owes us.
中美能源还拥有一项重要的非公用事业业务——美国之家服务公司,这是美国第二大房地产经纪公司。与我们的公用事业运营不同,这项业务具有高度周期性,但我们仍然热切地看好它。我们有一位杰出的经理人罗恩·佩尔蒂埃,他通过其收购和运营技能,正在打造一个经纪业务巨头。
原文
MidAmerican also owns a significant non-utility business, HomeServices of America, the second largest real estate broker in the country. Unlike our utility operations, this business is highly cyclical, but nevertheless one we view enthusiastically. We have an exceptional manager, Ron Peltier, who through both his acquisition and operational skills is building a brokerage powerhouse.
美国之家服务公司在2004年参与了598亿美元的交易,比2003年增长了112亿美元。其中约24%的增长来自于年内进行的六项收购。通过我们的17家经纪公司——所有公司都保留其本地身份——我们在18个州雇佣了超过18,000名经纪人。随着我们继续收购领先的本地化运营机构,美国之家服务公司在未来十年几乎肯定会大幅增长。
原文
HomeServices participated in $59.8 billion of transactions in 2004, a gain of $11.2 billion from 2003. About 24% of the increase came from six acquisitions made during the year. Through our 17 brokerage firms — all of which retain their local identities — we employ more than 18,000 brokers in 18 states. HomeServices is almost certain to grow substantially in the next decade as we continue to acquire leading localized operations.
去年,中美能源对一个锌回收项目的主要投资进行了减记,该项目始于1998年,于2002年投入运营。我们加利福尼亚地热运营产生的盐水中含有大量锌,我们相信可以盈利地提取这种金属。好几个月以来,似乎商业上可行的回收近在咫尺。但在采矿业,就像在石油勘探中一样,前景总有办法”戏弄”其开发者,每次解决一个问题,另一个问题又冒出来。九月份,我们认输了。
原文
Last year MidAmerican wrote off a major investment in a zinc recovery project that was initiated in 1998 and became operational in 2002. Large quantities of zinc are present in the brine produced by our California geothermal operations, and we believed we could profitably extract the metal. For many months, it appeared that commercially-viable recoveries were imminent. But in mining, just as in oil exploration, prospects have a way of “teasing” their developers, and every time one problem was solved, another popped up. In September, we threw in the towel.
我们在这里的失败说明了一条准则的重要性——坚持简单的命题——我们在投资和运营中通常都应用这一准则。如果只有一个是决策的关键变量,并且该变量有90%的机会朝着对你有利的方向发展,那么成功结果的可能性显然是90%。但如果有十个独立的变量需要有利地突破才能获得成功的结果,并且每个变量都有90%的成功概率,那么获得成功的可能性只有35%。在我们的锌项目中,我们解决了大部分问题。但有一个问题被证明是无法解决的,而这就足够了。既然链条的强度取决于其最薄弱的环节,那么寻找——请原谅我的矛盾修辞——单一环节的链条是有意义的。
原文
Our failure here illustrates the importance of a guideline — stay with simple propositions — that we usually apply in investments as well as operations. If only one variable is key to a decision, and the variable has a 90% chance of going your way, the chance for a successful outcome is obviously 90%. But if ten independent variables need to break favorably for a successful result, and each has a 90% probability of success, the likelihood of having a winner is only 35%. In our zinc venture, we solved most of the problems. But one proved intractable, and that was one too many. Since a chain is no stronger than its weakest link, it makes sense to look for — if you’ll excuse an oxymoron — mono-linked chains.
以下是中美能源业绩的细分。在2004年,“其他”类别包括出售安然应收账款的7,220万美元利润,该应收账款是在我们两年前购买北方天然气时附带获得的。沃尔特、戴夫和我,作为奥马哈本地人,将这笔意外之财视为战争赔款——部分补偿我们城市在1986年因肯·莱伊在承诺将公司留在这里后又将北方天然气迁往休斯顿而遭受的损失。(详情见伯克希尔2002年年报。)
原文
A breakdown of MidAmerican’s results follows. In 2004, the “other” category includes a $72.2 million profit from sale of an Enron receivable that was thrown in when we purchased Northern Natural two years earlier. Walter, Dave and I, as natives of Omaha, view this unanticipated gain as war reparations — partial compensation for the loss our city suffered in 1986 when Ken Lay moved Northern to Houston, after promising to leave the company here. (For details, see Berkshire’s 2002 annual report.)
以下是中美能源运营的一些关键数据:
| 收入*(以百万美元计**)* | ||
| 2004年 | 2003年 | |
| 英国公用事业 | 3.26亿美元 | 2.89亿美元 |
| 爱荷华公用事业 | 2.68亿美元 | 2.69亿美元 |
| 管道业务 | 2.88亿美元 | 2.61亿美元 |
| 美国之家服务公司 | 1.30亿美元 | 1.13亿美元 |
| 其他(净额) | 1.72亿美元 | 1.90亿美元 |
| 锌项目亏损 | (5.79亿美元) | (0.46亿美元) |
| 扣除公司利息和税项前的收入 | 6.05亿美元 | 10.76亿美元 |
| 利息,不包括支付给伯克希尔的 | (2.12亿美元) | (2.25亿美元) |
| 伯克希尔次级债务利息 | (1.70亿美元) | (1.84亿美元) |
| 所得税 | (0.53亿美元) | (2.51亿美元) |
| 净利润 | 1.70亿美元 | 4.16亿美元 |
| 归属于伯克希尔的收入* | 2.37亿美元 | 4.29亿美元 |
| 欠第三方的债务 | 105.28亿美元 | 102.96亿美元 |
| 欠伯克希尔的债务 | 14.78亿美元 | 15.78亿美元 |
原文
Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operations:
| Earnings*(in**$*millions) | ||
| 2004 | 2003 | |
| U.K. utilities | $ 326 | $ 289 |
| Iowa utility | 268 | 269 |
| Pipelines | 288 | 261 |
| HomeServices | 130 | 113 |
| Other (net) | 172 | 190 |
| Loss from zinc project | (579) | (46) |
| Earnings before corporate interest and taxes | 605 | 1,076 |
| Interest, other than to Berkshire | (212) | (225) |
| Interest on Berkshire junior debt | (170) | (184) |
| Income tax | (53) | (251) |
| Net earnings | $ 170 | $ 416 |
| Earnings applicable to Berkshire* | $ 237 | $ 429 |
| Debt owed to others | 10,528 | 10,296 |
| Debt owed to Berkshire | 1,478 | 1,578 |
保险业务
自1967年伯克希尔收购国民 indemnity 公司以来,财产意外险一直是我们核心业务和我们增长的推动力。保险提供了一个资金源泉,我们用这些资金收购了证券和企业,这些现在为我们提供了日益多样化的盈利来源。因此,在本节中,我将花一点时间告诉你们我们是如何走到今天的。
原文
Insurance
Since Berkshire purchased National Indemnity (“NICO”) in 1967, property-casualty insurance has been our core business and the propellant of our growth. Insurance has provided a fountain of funds with which we’ve acquired the securities and businesses that now give us an ever-widening variety of earnings streams. So in this section, I will be spending a little time telling you how we got where we are.
我们保险资金的来源是”浮存金”,即不属于我们但由我们暂时持有的资金。我们的大部分浮存金产生于:(1)保费预付,而我们提供的服务——保险保障——是在通常覆盖一年的时期内提供的;(2)今天发生的损失事件并不总是导致我们立即支付索赔,因为损失有时需要很多年才能被报告(例如石棉损失)、协商和解决。1967年收购时带来的2,000万美元浮存金,现在已经通过内部增长和收购增加到461亿美元。
原文
The source of our insurance funds is “float,” which is money that doesn’t belong to us but that we temporarily hold. Most of our float arises because (1) premiums are paid upfront though the service we provide — insurance protection — is delivered over a period that usually covers a year and; (2) loss events that occur today do not always result in our immediately paying claims, because it sometimes takes many years for losses to be reported (asbestos losses would be an example), negotiated and settled. The $20 million of float that came with our 1967 purchase has now increased — both by way of internal growth and acquisitions — to $46.1 billion.
浮存金非常美妙——如果它不带来高昂代价的话。其成本由承保结果决定,即我们最终将支付的费用和损失与我们已收到的保费相比如何。当实现承保利润时——正如伯克希尔在涉足保险业务的38年中有大约一半年份的情况——浮存金比免费的还要好。在这些年份里,我们实际上是因持有别人的钱而获得报酬。然而,对于大多数保险公司来说,日子要艰难得多:总的来说,财产意外险行业几乎总是处于承保亏损状态。当这种亏损很大时,浮存金就变得昂贵,有时甚至是毁灭性的昂贵。
原文
Float is wonderful — if it doesn’t come at a high price. Its cost is determined by underwriting results, meaning how the expenses and losses we will ultimately pay compare with the premiums we have received. When an underwriting profit is achieved — as has been the case at Berkshire in about half of the 38 years we have been in the insurance business — float is better than free. In such years, we are actually paid for holding other people’s money. For most insurers, however, life has been far more difficult: In aggregate, the property-casualty industry almost invariably operates at an underwriting loss. When that loss is large, float becomes expensive, sometimes devastatingly so.
保险公司通常获得低回报的原因很简单:它们销售的是大宗商品类产品。保单格式是标准的,产品可以从许多供应商处获得,其中一些是互助公司(由保单持有人”拥有”,而非股东),其利润目标是有限的。此外,大多数被保险人并不关心从谁那里购买。数以百万计的顾客会说”我需要一些吉列刀片”或”我要一杯可口可乐”,但我们却等不来”我想要一份国民 indemnity 的保单,谢谢”。因此,保险业的价格竞争通常非常激烈。想想航空公司的座位。
原文
Insurers have generally earned poor returns for a simple reason: They sell a commodity-like product. Policy forms are standard, and the product is available from many suppliers, some of whom are mutual companies (“owned” by policyholders rather than stockholders) with profit goals that are limited. Moreover, most insureds don’t care from whom they buy. Customers by the millions say “I need some Gillette blades” or “I’ll have a Coke” but we wait in vain for “I’d like a National Indemnity policy, please.” Consequently, price competition in insurance is usually fierce. Think airline seats.
那么,你可能会问,伯克希尔的保险业务是如何克服行业糟糕的经济状况,并取得某种持久的竞争优势的呢?我们以几种方式应对了这个问题。让我们首先看看国民 indemnity 公司的策略。
原文
So, you may ask, how do Berkshire’s insurance operations overcome the dismal economics of the industry and achieve some measure of enduring competitive advantage? We’ve attacked that problem in several ways. Let’s look first at NICO’s strategy.
当我们收购这家公司时——它是一家商业车险和一般责任险的专业公司——它似乎没有任何能够克服行业长期困境的特质。它并不出名,没有信息优势(该公司从未有过精算师),不是低成本运营商,并且通过总代理销售,这种方法被许多人认为是过时的。然而,在过去38年中的几乎全部时间里,国民 indemnity 公司一直是一位明星表现者。事实上,如果我们没有进行这次收购,伯克希尔的幸运程度能有今天的一半就谢天谢地了。
原文
When we purchased the company — a specialist in commercial auto and general liability insurance — it did not appear to have any attributes that would overcome the industry’s chronic troubles. It was not well-known, had no informational advantage (the company has never had an actuary), was not a low-cost operator, and sold through general agents, a method many people thought outdated. Nevertheless, for almost all of the past 38 years, NICO has been a star performer. Indeed, had we not made this acquisition, Berkshire would be lucky to be worth half of what it is today.
我们所拥有的是一种大多数保险公司无法复制的心态。看看对面那页。你能想象任何上市公司会拥抱一种导致1986年至1999年间我们经历的收入下降的商业模式吗?需要强调的是,这种巨幅下滑并非因为无法获得业务。只要国民 indemnity 公司愿意降价,它随时可以获得数十亿美元的保费收入。但相反,我们始终如一地定价以获取利润,而不是为了匹配我们最乐观的竞争对手。我们从未离开过客户——但他们离开了我们。
原文
What we’ve had going for us is a managerial mindset that most insurers find impossible to replicate. Take a look at the facing page. Can you imagine any public company embracing a business model that would lead to the decline in revenue that we experienced from 1986 through 1999? That colossal slide, it should be emphasized, did not occur because business was unobtainable. Many billions of premium dollars were readily available to NICO had we only been willing to cut prices. But we instead consistently priced to make a profit, not to match our most optimistic competitor. We never left customers — but they left us.
大多数美国企业都怀有一种”制度性强制力”,拒绝业务量的长期下降。哪个CEO想向股东报告不仅业务去年萎缩了,而且还会继续下降?在保险业,维持业务量的冲动也加剧了,因为愚蠢定价的保单的后果可能不会马上显现。如果一家保险公司对准备金过于乐观,报告的收入就会被夸大,而真正的损失成本可能多年后才会暴露(这种自我欺骗的形式在20世纪70年代初几乎毁了GEICO)。
原文
Most American businesses harbor an “institutional imperative” that rejects extended decreases in volume. What CEO wants to report to his shareholders that not only did business contract last year but that it will continue to drop? In insurance, the urge to keep writing business is also intensified because the consequences of foolishly-priced policies may not become apparent for some time. If an insurer is optimistic in its reserving, reported earnings will be overstated, and years may pass before true loss costs are revealed (a form of self-deception that nearly destroyed GEICO in the early 1970s).
一位严守纪律的承保人的写照
国民 indemnity 公司
| 年份 | 已赚保费*(以百万美元计**)* | 年末员工人数 | 运营费用占已赚保费**比例 | 承保利润(亏损)占保费百分比*(按2004年末计算**)** | |
| 1980 | 7960万美元 | 372 | 32.3% | 8.2% | |
| 1981 | 5990万美元 | 353 | 36.1% | (0.8%) | |
| 1982 | 5250万美元 | 323 | 36.7% | (15.3%) | |
| 1983 | 5820万美元 | 308 | 35.6% | (18.7%) | |
| 1984 | 6220万美元 | 342 | 35.5% | (17.0%) | |
| 1985 | 1.607亿美元 | 380 | 28.0% | 1.9% | |
| 1986 | 3.662亿美元 | 403 | 25.9% | 30.7% | |
| 1987 | 2.323亿美元 | 368 | 29.5% | 27.3% | |
| 1988 | 1.399亿美元 | 347 | 31.7% | 24.8% | |
| 1989 | 9840万美元 | 320 | 35.9% | 14.8% | |
| 1990 | 8780万美元 | 289 | 37.4% | 7.0% | |
| 1991 | 8830万美元 | 284 | 35.7% | 13.0% | |
| 1992 | 8270万美元 | 277 | 37.9% | 5.2% | |
| 1993 | 8680万美元 | 279 | 36.1% | 11.3% | |
| 1994 | 8590万美元 | 263 | 34.6% | 4.6% | |
| 1995 | 7800万美元 | 258 | 36.6% | 9.2% | |
| 1996 | 7400万美元 | 243 | 36.5% | 6.8% | |
| 1997 | 6530万美元 | 240 | 40.4% | 6.2% | |
| 1998 | 5680万美元 | 231 | 40.4% | 9.4% | |
| 1999 | 5450万美元 | 222 | 41.2% | 4.5% | |
| 2000 | 6810万美元 | 230 | 38.4% | 2.9% | |
| 2001 | 1.613亿美元 | 254 | 28.8% | (11.6%) | |
| 2002 | 3.435亿美元 | 313 | 24.0% | 16.8% | |
| 2003 | 5.945亿美元 | 337 | 22.2% | 18.1% | |
| 2004 | 6.056亿美元 | 340 | 22.5% | 5.1% |
* 了解任何给定年份的真实盈利能力需要很长时间。首先,许多索赔是在年底之后收到的,我们必须估计会有多少以及它们的成本。(在保险术语中,这些索赔被称为IBNR——已发生但未报告。)其次,索赔通常需要数年甚至数十年才能解决,这意味着过程中可能会有许多意外。 出于这些原因,本栏中的结果仅仅代表我们在2004年底对过去几年表现的最佳估计。截至1999年的年份的利润率可能接近正确,因为这些年份已经”成熟”,即未决索赔很少。年份越近,涉及的猜测就越多。特别是,2003年和2004年显示的结果很可能会发生重大变化。
原文
Portrait of a Disciplined Underwriter
National Indemnity Company
| Year | WrittenPremium(In $ millions) | No. ofEmployeesat**Year-End | Ratio of OperatingExpensestoWrittenPremium | Underwriting Profit (Loss) as a Per- centageofPremiums (Calculated as of year end**2004)* | |
| 1980 | $79.6 | 372 | 32.3% | 8.2% | |
| 1981 | 59.9 | 353 | 36.1% | (.8%) | |
| 1982 | 52.5 | 323 | 36.7% | (15.3%) | |
| 1983 | 58.2 | 308 | 35.6% | (18.7%) | |
| 1984 | 62.2 | 342 | 35.5% | (17.0%) | |
| 1985 | 160.7 | 380 | 28.0% | 1.9% | |
| 1986 | 366.2 | 403 | 25.9% | 30.7% | |
| 1987 | 232.3 | 368 | 29.5% | 27.3% | |
| 1988 | 139.9 | 347 | 31.7% | 24.8% | |
| 1989 | 98.4 | 320 | 35.9% | 14.8% | |
| 1990 | 87.8 | 289 | 37.4% | 7.0% | |
| 1991 | 88.3 | 284 | 35.7% | 13.0% | |
| 1992 | 82.7 | 277 | 37.9% | 5.2% | |
| 1993 | 86.8 | 279 | 36.1% | 11.3% | |
| 1994 | 85.9 | 263 | 34.6% | 4.6% | |
| 1995 | 78.0 | 258 | 36.6% | 9.2% | |
| 1996 | 74.0 | 243 | 36.5% | 6.8% | |
| 1997 | 65.3 | 240 | 40.4% | 6.2% | |
| 1998 | 56.8 | 231 | 40.4% | 9.4% | |
| 1999 | 54.5 | 222 | 41.2% | 4.5% | |
| 2000 | 68.1 | 230 | 38.4% | 2.9% | |
| 2001 | 161.3 | 254 | 28.8% | (11.6%) | |
| 2002 | 343.5 | 313 | 24.0% | 16.8% | |
| 2003 | 594.5 | 337 | 22.2% | 18.1% | |
| 2004 | 605.6 | 340 | 22.5% | 5.1% |
* It takes a long time to learn the true profitability of any given year. First, many claims are received after the end of the year, and we must estimate how many of these there will be and what they will cost. (In insurance jargon, these claims are termed IBNR — incurred but not reported.) Second, claims often take years, or even decades, to settle, which means there can be many surprises along the way. For these reasons, the results in this column simply represent our best estimate at the end of 2004 as to how we have done in prior years. Profit margins for the years through 1999 are probably close to correct because these years are “mature,” in the sense that they have few claims still outstanding. The more recent the year, the more guesswork is involved. In particular, the results shown for 2003 and 2004 are apt to change significantly.
最后,还有一个恐惧因素在起作用,因为业务萎缩通常会导致裁员。为了避免被解雇,员工会为不充分的定价辩护,告诉自己必须容忍定价过低的业务,以保持组织完整和分销系统满意。他们认为,如果不这样做,公司就无法参与他们总觉得即将到来的复苏。
原文
Finally, there is a fear factor at work, in that a shrinking business usually leads to layoffs. To avoid pink slips, employees will rationalize inadequate pricing, telling themselves that poorly-priced business must be tolerated in order to keep the organization intact and the distribution system happy. If this course isn’t followed, these employees will argue, the company will not participate in the recovery that they invariably feel is just around the corner.
为了对抗员工保护自己饭碗的天然倾向,我们一直向国民 indemnity 公司的员工承诺,没有人会因为业务量下降而被解雇,无论收缩多么严重。(这不是唐纳德·特朗普那种地方。)国民 indemnity 公司不是劳动密集型企业,而且,如表所示,它可以承受多余的间接费用。然而,它无法承受定价过低的业务以及随之而来的承保纪律的崩溃。一个今年不深切关心承保盈利的保险组织,明年也不太可能关心。
原文
To combat employees’ natural tendency to save their own skins, we have always promised NICO’s workforce that no one will be fired because of declining volume, however severe the contraction. (This is not Donald Trump’s sort of place.) NICO is not labor-intensive, and, as the table suggests, can live with excess overhead. It can’t live, however, with underpriced business and the breakdown in underwriting discipline that accompanies it. An insurance organization that doesn’t care deeply about underwriting at a profit this year is unlikely to care next year either.
当然,一个遵循不裁员政策的业务必须特别小心,避免在景气时期人员过剩。三十年前,时任Cap Cities CEO的汤姆·墨菲用一个假设的故事向我强调了这一点:一个员工向老板请求允许雇佣一名助手。该员工认为,每年增加2万美元的工资开支微不足道。但他的老板告诉他,这个提议应该被评估为一个300万美元的决策,因为考虑到加薪、福利和其他费用(更多的人,更多的卫生纸),这位额外的人员在他的一生中可能至少花费那么多。而且,除非公司陷入非常困难的时期,否则被增加的人员无论对企业的贡献多么微小,都不太可能被解雇。
原文
Naturally, a business that follows a no-layoff policy must be especially careful to avoid overstaffing when times are good. Thirty years ago Tom Murphy, then CEO of Cap Cities, drove this point home to me with a hypothetical tale about an employee who asked his boss for permission to hire an assistant. The employee assumed that adding $20,000 to the annual payroll would be inconsequential. But his boss told him the proposal should be evaluated as a $3 million decision, given that an additional person would probably cost at least that amount over his lifetime, factoring in raises, benefits and other expenses (more people, more toilet paper). And unless the company fell on very hard times, the employee added would be unlikely to be dismissed, however marginal his contribution to the business.
要像国民 indemnity 公司那样运营,需要真正的勇气——深深植根于公司文化之中。任何查看表格的人都可以快速浏览1986年至1999年的年份。但是,眼看着业务量一天天萎缩——同时竞争对手在吹嘘增长并收获华尔街的掌声——这是一种很少有管理者能够忍受的经历。然而,国民 indemnity 公司自1940年成立以来已有四位CEO,没有一位屈服过。(值得注意的是,只有一位CEO大学毕业。我们的经验告诉我们,非凡的商业能力在很大程度上是与生俱来的。)
原文
It takes real fortitude — embedded deep within a company’s culture — to operate as NICO does. Anyone examining the table can scan the years from 1986 to 1999 quickly. But living day after day with dwindling volume — while competitors are boasting of growth and reaping Wall Street’s applause — is an experience few managers can tolerate. NICO, however, has had four CEOs since its formation in 1940 and none have bent. (It should be noted that only one of the four graduated from college. Our experience tells us that extraordinary business ability is largely innate.)
目前国民 indemnity 公司的管理明星——不妨说是超级明星——是唐·沃斯特(是的,他是”那个毕业生”),他从1989年开始管理公司。他的打击率与巴里·邦兹不相上下,因为像巴里一样,唐宁愿等待也不愿挥杆打坏球。唐现在在国民 indemnity 公司累积了9.5亿美元的浮存金,随着时间的推移,几乎可以肯定这将被证明是负成本类型的浮存金。由于保险价格正在下降,唐的业务量很快将显著下降,当这种情况发生时,查理和我会更加大声地为他喝彩。
原文
The current managerial star — make that superstar — at NICO is Don Wurster (yes, he’s “the graduate”), who has been running things since 1989. His slugging percentage is right up there with Barry Bonds’ because, like Barry, Don will accept a walk rather than swing at a bad pitch. Don has now amassed $950 million of float at NICO that over time is almost certain to be proved the negative-cost kind. Because insurance prices are falling, Don’s volume will soon decline very significantly and, as it does, Charlie and I will applaud him ever more loudly.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
在商品类业务中取得成功的另一种方式是成为低成本运营商。在广泛经营的汽车保险公司中,GEICO拥有这一宝贵称号。对于国民 indemnity 公司,正如我们所看到的,一种潮起潮落的商业模式是有意义的。但是,一家拥有成本优势的公司必须采取坚定不移的全力推进策略。这正是我们在GEICO所做的。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Another way to prosper in a commodity-type business is to be the low-cost operator. Among auto insurers operating on a broad scale, GEICO holds that cherished title. For NICO, as we have seen, an ebb-and-flow business model makes sense. But a company holding a low-cost advantage must pursue an unrelenting foot-to-the-floor strategy. And that’s just what we do at GEICO.
一个世纪前,当汽车刚刚出现时,财产意外险行业以卡特尔形式运作。主要公司,大多数总部位于东北部,制定了”公会”费率,仅此而已。没有人降价以吸引业务。相反,保险公司争夺强大、信誉良好的代理人,这种关注导致了代理人的高佣金和消费者的高价格。
原文
A century ago, when autos first appeared, the property-casualty industry operated as a cartel. The major companies, most of which were based in the Northeast, established “bureau” rates and that was it. No one cut prices to attract business. Instead, insurers competed for strong, well-regarded agents, a focus that produced high commissions for agents and high prices for consumers.
1922年,来自伊利诺伊州梅尔纳的农民乔治·梅彻尔创立了州立农业保险公司,旨在利用行业高成本巨头维持的定价保护伞。州立农业采用”专属”代理人制度,这种系统使其获客成本低于公会保险公司(其”独立”代理人成功地挑拨一家公司对抗另一家)。凭借其低成本结构,州立农业最终占据了个人险种(汽车和房主)约25%的业务,远远超过了其曾经强大的竞争对手。成立于1931年的好事达保险采用了类似的销售系统,很快就成为个人险种中仅次于州立农业的亚军。资本主义发挥了它的魔力,这些低成本运营商看起来势不可挡。
原文
In 1922, State Farm was formed by George Mecherle, a farmer from Merna, Illinois, who aimed to take advantage of the pricing umbrella maintained by the high-cost giants of the industry. State Farm employed a “captive” agency force, a system keeping its acquisition costs lower than those incurred by the bureau insurers (whose “independent” agents successfully played off one company against another). With its low-cost structure, State Farm eventually captured about 25% of the personal lines (auto and homeowners) business, far outdistancing its once-mighty competitors. Allstate, formed in 1931, put a similar distribution system into place and soon became the runner-up in personal lines to State Farm. Capitalism had worked its magic, and these low-cost operations looked unstoppable.
但是一位名叫利奥·古德温的人有一个想法,要创办一家更高效的汽车保险公司,并带着区区20万美元于1936年创立了GEICO。古德温的计划是彻底取消代理人,直接与汽车车主打交道。他问自己,当产品——汽车保险——既是强制性的又是昂贵的,为什么分销机制中要有任何不必要且昂贵的环节呢?他推断,商业保险的购买者可能需要专业建议,但大多数消费者知道他们在汽车保单中需要什么。这是一个强有力的见解。
原文
But a man named Leo Goodwin had an idea for an even more efficient auto insurer and, with a skimpy $200,000, started GEICO in 1936. Goodwin’s plan was to eliminate the agent entirely and to deal instead directly with the auto owner. Why, he asked himself, should there be any unnecessary and expensive links in the distribution mechanism when the product, auto insurance, was both mandatory and costly. Purchasers of business insurance, he reasoned, might well require professional advice, but most consumers knew what they needed in an auto policy. That was a powerful insight.
最初,GEICO将其低成本信息邮寄给有限的政府雇员受众。后来,它拓宽了视野,将营销重点转向电话,处理来自广播和印刷广告的咨询。而今天,互联网正变得日益强大。
原文
Originally, GEICO mailed its low-cost message to a limited audience of government employees. Later, it widened its horizons and shifted its marketing emphasis to the phone, working inquiries that came from broadcast and print advertising. And today the Internet is coming on strong.
从1936年到1975年,GEICO从零起步发展到4%的市场份额,成为美国第四大汽车保险公司。在这段时间的大部分时间里,公司管理得非常出色,既实现了出色的业务量增长,又获得了高额利润。它看起来势不可挡。但是,在1970年我的朋友兼英雄洛里默·戴维森以CEO身份退休后,他的继任者很快犯了一个大错,即对损失的准备金提取不足。这产生了错误的成本信息,进而导致了不充分的定价。到1976年,GEICO濒临破产。
原文
Between 1936 and 1975, GEICO grew from a standing start to a 4% market share, becoming the country’s fourth largest auto insurer. During most of this period, the company was superbly managed, achieving both excellent volume gains and high profits. It looked unstoppable. But after my friend and hero Lorimer Davidson retired as CEO in 1970, his successors soon made a huge mistake by under-reserving for losses. This produced faulty cost information, which in turn produced inadequate pricing. By 1976, GEICO was on the brink of failure.
杰克·伯恩随后加入GEICO担任CEO,几乎凭一己之力通过包括大幅提价在内的英勇努力拯救了公司。虽然GEICO的生存需要这些措施,但保单持有人纷纷逃离公司,到1980年其市场份额已跌至1.8%。随后,公司进行了一些不明智的多元化举措。这种将重点从其非凡的核心业务转移的做法抑制了GEICO的增长,到1993年其市场份额仅微弱增长至1.9%。然后托尼·奈斯利接手了。
原文
Jack Byrne then joined GEICO as CEO and, almost single-handedly, saved the company by heroic efforts that included major price increases. Though GEICO’s survival required these, policyholders fled the company, and by 1980 its market share had fallen to 1.8%. Subsequently, the company embarked on some unwise diversification moves. This shift of emphasis away from its extraordinary core business stunted GEICO’s growth, and by 1993 its market share had grown only fractionally, to 1.9%. Then Tony Nicely took charge.
而这带来了多么大的不同:2005年,GEICO可能获得约6%的市场份额。更棒的是,托尼实现了增长与盈利能力的匹配。事实上,GEICO为其所有相关方带来了重大利益:2004年,其客户节省了约10亿美元,相比他们原本需要支付的保费;其员工获得了1.91亿美元的利润分享奖金,平均占工资的24.3%;其所有者——也就是我们——享受了出色的财务回报。
原文
And what a difference that’s made: In 2005 GEICO will probably secure a 6% market share. Better yet, Tony has matched growth with profitability. Indeed, GEICO delivers all of its constituents major benefits: In 2004 its customers saved $1 billion or so compared to what they would otherwise have paid for coverage, its associates earned a $191 million profit-sharing bonus that averaged 24.3% of salary, and its owner — that’s us — enjoyed excellent financial returns.
还有更多好消息。1976年杰克·伯恩拯救公司时,新泽西州拒绝批准他需要以盈利运营的费率。因此,他立即——并且恰当地——撤出了该州。此后,GEICO避开了新泽西州和马萨诸塞州,认识到这两个司法管辖区是保险公司注定要挣扎的地方。
原文
There’s more good news. When Jack Byrne was rescuing the company in 1976, New Jersey refused to grant him the rates he needed to operate profitably. He therefore promptly — and properly — withdrew from the state. Subsequently, GEICO avoided both New Jersey and Massachusetts, recognizing them as two jurisdictions in which insurers were destined to struggle.
然而,在2003年,新泽西州重新审视其长期存在的汽车保险问题,并通过了旨在遏制欺诈并允许保险公司公平竞争的立法。即便如此,人们可能预期州的官僚机构会使变革缓慢而困难。
原文
In 2003, however, New Jersey took a new look at its chronic auto-insurance problems and enacted legislation that would curb fraud and allow insurers a fair playing field. Even so, one might have expected the state’s bureaucracy to make change slow and difficult.
但恰恰相反。新泽西州保险专员霍莉·巴克,她在任何行业都会成功,决心将法律意图变为现实。在她工作人员的配合下,GEICO敲定了重新进入该州的细节,并于去年八月获得了许可证。从那时起,新泽西州司机给予我们的回应远超我的预期。
原文
But just the opposite occurred. Holly Bakke, the New Jersey insurance commissioner, who would be a success in any line of work, was determined to turn the law’s intent into reality. With her staff’s cooperation, GEICO ironed out the details for re-entering the state and was licensed last August. Since then, we’ve received a response from New Jersey drivers that is multiples of my expectations.
我们现在为14万名保单持有人提供服务——约占新泽西市场的4%——并为他们节省了大量资金(正如我们为全国各地的司机所做的那样)。州内口碑相传导致咨询量涌入。一旦我们收到新泽西潜在客户的咨询,我们的成交率——即咨询量中实际签发保单的百分比——在该州远高于全国水平。
原文
We are now serving 140,000 policyholders — about 4% of the New Jersey market — and saving them substantial sums (as we do drivers everywhere). Word-of-mouth recommendations within the state are causing inquiries to pour in. And once we hear from a New Jersey prospect, our closure rate — the percentage of policies issued to inquiries received — is far higher in the state than it is nationally.
当然,我们并不声称可以为每个人省钱。一些公司使用与我们不同的评级系统,可能会向某些类别的司机提供比我们更低的费率。但我们相信,在为公众各部分服务的所有全国性公司中,GEICO提供最低价格的频率最高。此外,在包括新泽西在内的大多数州,伯克希尔股东可享受8%的折扣。所以,请花上15分钟,访问GEICO.com——或拨打800-847-7536——看看你是否能省下一大笔钱(当然,你可能想用这些钱来购买其他伯克希尔产品)。
原文
We make no claim, of course, that we can save everyone money. Some companies, using rating systems that are different from ours, will offer certain classes of drivers a lower rate than we do. But we believe GEICO offers the lowest price more often than any other national company that serves all segments of the public. In addition, in most states, including New Jersey, Berkshire shareholders receive an 8% discount. So gamble fifteen minutes of your time and go to GEICO.com — or call 800-847-7536 — to see whether you can save big money (which you might want to use, of course, to buy other Berkshire products).
* * * * * * * * * * * *
再保险——出售给希望转移部分已承担风险的保险公司的保险——不应是大宗商品。归根结底,任何保险单都只是一个承诺,而且众所周知,承诺的质量千差万别。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Reinsurance — insurance sold to other insurers who wish to lay off part of the risks they have assumed — should not be a commodity product. At bottom, any insurance policy is simply a promise, and as everyone knows, promises vary enormously in their quality.
然而,在初级保险层面,做出承诺的人通常并不重要。例如,在个人险种中,各州向有偿付能力的公司征收摊派金,以支付破产公司的保单持有人。在商业保险领域,同样的安排适用于工人赔偿保单。这些类型的”受保护”保单约占财产意外险行业业务量的60%。审慎经营的保险公司对于需要补贴其他地方的劣质或鲁莽管理感到恼火,但事实就是如此。
原文
At the primary insurance level, nevertheless, just who makes the promise is often of minor importance. In personal-lines insurance, for example, states levy assessments on solvent companies to pay the policyholders of companies that go broke. In the business-insurance field, the same arrangement applies to workers’ compensation policies. “Protected” policies of these types account for about 60% of the property-casualty industry’s volume. Prudently-run insurers are irritated by the need to subsidize poor or reckless management elsewhere, but that’s the way it is.
在初级层面,其他形式的商业保险涉及对被保险人风险更大的承诺。例如,当Reliance Insurance和Home Insurance破产时,它们的承诺被证明毫无价值。因此,许多持有其商业保单的人(除了那些覆盖工人赔偿的保单)遭受了痛苦的损失。
原文
Other forms of business insurance at the primary level involve promises that carry greater risks for the insured. When Reliance Insurance and Home Insurance were run into the ground, for example, their promises proved to be worthless. Consequently, many holders of their business policies (other than those covering workers’ compensation) suffered painful losses.
然而,初级保单中的偿付能力风险与再保险保单中潜藏的风险相比相形见绌。当一家再保险公司破产时,与之打交道的初级公司几乎总会遭受巨额损失。这种风险并不小:GEICO在20世纪80年代初因粗心选择再保险公司而遭受了数千万美元的损失。
原文
The solvency risk in primary policies, however, pales in comparison to that lurking in reinsurance policies. When a reinsurer goes broke, staggering losses almost always strike the primary companies it has dealt with. This risk is far from minor: GEICO has suffered tens of millions in losses from its careless selection of reinsurers in the early 1980s.
如果在未来一二十年发生一场真正的特大灾难——这也是真实的可能性——一些再保险公司将无法生存。迄今为止最大的保险损失是世界贸易中心灾难,估计给保险业造成了350亿美元的损失。1992年的安德鲁飓风给保险公司造成了约155亿美元的损失(尽管按今天的美元计算,这笔损失要高得多)。这两起事件都震撼了保险和再保险世界。但是,一场1,000亿美元的事件,甚至更大的灾难,仍然是可能的,如果一场特别严重的地震或飓风恰好袭击了错误的地点。2004年,四场重大飓风袭击了佛罗里达州,造成了总计约250亿美元的保险损失。其中两场——查理和伊万——如果它们进入美国的地点与实际登陆点相差不远,可能造成至少三倍的破坏。
原文
Were a true mega-catastrophe to occur in the next decade or two — and that’s a real possibility — some reinsurers would not survive. The largest insured loss to date is the World Trade Center disaster, which cost the insurance industry an estimated $35 billion. Hurricane Andrew cost insurers about $15.5 billion in 1992 (though that loss would be far higher in today’s dollars). Both events rocked the insurance and reinsurance world. But a $100 billion event, or even a larger catastrophe, remains a possibility if either a particularly severe earthquake or hurricane hits just the wrong place. Four significant hurricanes struck Florida during 2004, causing an aggregate of $25 billion or so in insured losses. Two of these — Charley and Ivan — could have done at least three times the damage they did had they entered the U.S. not far from their actual landing points.
许多保险公司将1,000亿美元的全行业损失视为”不可想象的”,甚至不愿为它做计划。但在伯克希尔,我们已做好充分准备。我们的损失份额可能在3%到5%之间,而我们投资和其他业务的收入将轻松超过这一成本。当”灾难发生后的第二天”到来时,伯克希尔的支票会如期兑现。
原文
Many insurers regard a $100 billion industry loss as “unthinkable” and won’t even plan for it. But at Berkshire, we are fully prepared. Our share of the loss would probably be 3% to 5%, and earnings from our investments and other businesses would comfortably exceed that cost. When “the day after” arrives, Berkshire’s checks will clear.
尽管飓风给我们造成了12.5亿美元的损失,但我们的再保险业务去年表现良好。在通用再保险,乔·布兰登恢复了一种长期受人尊敬的承保纪律文化,这种文化一度迷失了方向。然而,他在2004年当前业务上实现的出色成果,被他在执掌公司之前几年出现的不利发展所抵消。在国民 indemnity 公司的再保险业务中,阿吉特·贾因继续成功承保其他再保险公司不愿或无法接受的巨额风险。阿吉特对伯克希尔的贡献是巨大的。
原文
Though the hurricanes hit us with a $1.25 billion loss, our reinsurance operations did well last year. At General Re, Joe Brandon has restored a long-admired culture of underwriting discipline that, for a time, had lost its way. The excellent results he realized in 2004 on current business, however, were offset by adverse developments from the years before he took the helm. At NICO’s reinsurance operation, Ajit Jain continues to successfully underwrite huge risks that no other reinsurer is willing or able to accept. Ajit’s value to Berkshire is enormous.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
我们的保险经理人在最大化我在本节提到的竞争优势方面,去年再次交付了一流的承保业绩。因此,我们的浮存金优于零成本。以下是成绩单:
| (以百万美元计*)* | |||
| 保险业务 | 承保利润 | 年末浮存金 | |
| 2004年 | 2003年 | 2004年 | |
| 通用再保险 | 300万美元 | 231.20亿美元 | 236.54亿美元 |
| B-H再保险 | 4.17亿美元 | 152.78亿美元 | 139.48亿美元 |
| GEICO | 9.70亿美元 | 59.60亿美元 | 52.87亿美元 |
| 其他初级保险* | 1.61亿美元 | 17.36亿美元 | 13.31亿美元 |
| 总计 | 15.51亿美元 | 460.94亿美元 | 442.20亿美元 |
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Our insurance managers, maximizing the competitive strengths I’ve mentioned in this section, again delivered first-class underwriting results last year. As a consequence, our float was better than costless. Here’s the scorecard:
| (in*$*millions) | |||
| Insurance Operations | Underwriting Profit | Yearend Float | |
| 2004 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| General Re | $ 3 | $23,120 | $23,654 |
| B-H Reinsurance | 417 | 15,278 | 13,948 |
| GEICO | 970 | 5,960 | 5,287 |
| Other Primary* | 161 | 1,736 | 1,331 |
| Total | $1,551 | $46,094 | $44,220 |
伯克希尔的浮存金在2004年增加了19亿美元,尽管一些被保险人选择了提前中止(即解除)某些再保险合同。只有当我们认为经济上对我们有利时(适当考虑我们未来可能从退还的资金中获得的收益),我们才同意这种提前中止。
原文
Berkshire’s float increased $1.9 billion in 2004, even though a few insureds opted to commute (that is, unwind) certain reinsurance contracts. We agree to such commutations only when we believe the economics are favorable to us (after giving due weight to what we might earn in the future on the money we are returning).
总而言之,去年我们获得了超过15亿美元的报酬,来持有平均约452亿美元的浮存金。2005年的定价将不如过去有吸引力。尽管如此,如果没有特大灾难,我们今年再次获得零成本浮存金的机会还是不错的。
原文
To summarize, last year we were paid more than $1.5 billion to hold an average of about $45.2 billion. In 2005 pricing will be less attractive than it has been. Nevertheless, absent a mega-catastrophe, we have a decent chance of achieving no-cost float again this year.
金融和金融产品
去年在本节中,我们讨论了一些杂项活动。在本报告中,我们将跳过几个现已不太重要的:Berkadia已接近尾声;Value Capital增加了其他投资者,推翻了我们需要将其财务数据合并到我们账面的预期;我负责的交易业务也在持续萎缩。
原文
Finance and Finance Products
Last year in this section we discussed a potpourri of activities. In this report, we’ll skip over several that are now of lesser importance: Berkadia is down to tag ends; Value Capital has added other investors, negating our expectation that we would need to consolidate its financials into ours; and the trading operation that I run continues to shrink.
• 伯克希尔的两项租赁业务去年均有所回升。在CORT(办公家具)方面,盈利仍然不足,但呈上升趋势。XTRA出售了其集装箱和多式联运业务,以专注于拖车租赁,这长期以来是它的强项。在新任CEO比尔·弗朗茨的领导下,管理费用已降低,资产利用率提高,目前正在实现可观的利润。
原文
• Both of Berkshire’s leasing operations rebounded last year. At CORT (office furniture), earnings remain inadequate, but are trending upward. XTRA disposed of its container and intermodal businesses in order to concentrate on trailer leasing, long its strong suit. Overhead has been reduced, asset utilization is up and decent profits are now being achieved under Bill Franz, the company’s new CEO.
• 通用再保险证券的收缩仍在继续。我们三年前决定退出这项衍生品业务,但退出说起来容易做起来难。尽管衍生品工具据称流动性极高——尽管我们在清算过程中受益于温和的市场环境——但我们年底仍有2,890份未结清合约,低于峰值时的23,218份。像地狱一样,衍生品交易容易进入,但难以退出。(其他相似之处也浮现脑海。)
原文
• The wind-down of Gen Re Securities continues. We decided to exit this derivative operation three years ago, but getting out is easier said than done. Though derivative instruments are purported to be highly liquid — and though we have had the benefit of a benign market while liquidating ours — we still had 2,890 contracts outstanding at yearend, down from 23,218 at the peak. Like Hell, derivative trading is easy to enter but difficult to leave. (Other similarities come to mind as well.)
通用再保险的衍生品合约一直需要按市价计算,并且我相信公司管理层尽职尽责地试图做出现实的”市值估值”。然而,衍生品的市场价格在一个交易结算有时需要几十年、并且经常涉及多个变量的世界里,可能非常模糊。在此期间,市值会影响每年支付的管理和交易奖金。难怪虚幻的利润经常被记录在案。
原文
Gen Re’s derivative contracts have always been required to be marked to market, and I believe the company’s management conscientiously tried to make realistic “marks.” The market prices of derivatives, however, can be very fuzzy in a world in which settlement of a transaction is sometimes decades away and often involves multiple variables as well. In the interim the marks influence the managerial and trading bonuses that are paid annually. It’s small wonder that phantom profits are often recorded.
投资者应该明白,在所有类型的金融机构中,快速增长有时会掩盖重大的潜在问题(偶尔还有欺诈行为)。对衍生品业务盈利能力的真正考验,是在无增长模式下运营一段长时间后所能取得的成果。只有当潮水退去时,你才知道谁在裸泳。
原文
Investors should understand that in all types of financial institutions, rapid growth sometimes masks major underlying problems (and occasionally fraud). The real test of the earning power of a derivatives operation is what it achieves after operating for an extended period in a no-growth mode. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
• 经过40年,我们终于在伯克希尔产生了一点协同效应:克莱顿 Homes 表现良好,这在一定程度上得益于其与伯克希尔的关联。预制房屋行业继续停留在美国企业的重症监护室,去年新屋销售不到13.5万套,与2003年大致相同。这些年份的销售量是1962年以来的最低水平,也仅为1995-1999年期间年销量的约40%。那个以不负责任的融资和天真的投资者为特征的时代,是该行业的天堂幻境。由于一家又一家主要贷款机构退出该领域,融资继续困扰着预制房屋的制造商、零售商和购买者。在这方面,伯克希尔的支持对克莱顿 Homes 来说非常宝贵。我们随时准备为任何合理的项目提供资金,去年克莱顿 Homes 的管理层找到了很多符合条件的项目。
原文
• After 40 years, we’ve finally generated a little synergy at Berkshire: Clayton Homes is doing well and that’s in part due to its association with Berkshire. The manufactured home industry continues to reside in the intensive care unit of Corporate America, having sold less than 135,000 new homes last year, about the same as in 2003. Volume in these years was the lowest since 1962, and it was also only about 40% of annual sales during the years 1995-99. That era, characterized by irresponsible financing and naïve funders, was a fool’s paradise for the industry. Because one major lender after another has fled the field, financing continues to bedevil manufacturers, retailers and purchasers of manufactured homes. Here Berkshire’s support has proven valuable to Clayton. We stand ready to fund whatever makes sense, and last year Clayton’s management found much that qualified.
正如我们在2003年报告中解释的那样,我们相信使用借入资金来支持盈利的、带息应收款。去年年初,我们借了20亿美元转贷给克莱顿(加价1个百分点),到2005年1月,总额达到73.5亿美元。大部分增加的资金是我们于2005年1月4日借入的,用于为一个成熟的贷款组合融资,该组合是克莱顿于2004年12月30日从一家退出该业务的银行购买的。
原文
As we explained in our 2003 report, we believe in using borrowed money to support profitable, interest-bearing receivables. At the beginning of last year, we had borrowed $2 billion to relend
标题:2004年致股东信
第二部分
这四家公司归属于我们的盈利几乎每年都在增长,目前已达到我们初始投资成本的约31.3%。它们向我们分配的现金分红也持续增长,2004年总计为4.34亿美元,约占我们投资成本的11.3%。总体而言,“四大金刚”为我们带来了令人满意但远非惊人的经营成果。
原文
Our share of the earnings of these four companies has grown almost every year, and now amounts to about 31.3% of our cost. Their cash distributions to us have also grown consistently, totaling $434 million in 2004, or about 11.3% of cost. All in all, the Big Four have delivered us a satisfactory, though far from spectacular, business result.
我们在市场上持有这些公司的经历也是如此。自我们最初买入以来,估值增长略超盈利增长,这是因为市盈率有所上升。然而,逐年来看,业务表现和市场表现往往出现背离,有时甚至达到异常程度。在大泡沫期间,市值增长远远超过了业务表现。而在泡沫破灭后,情况则正好相反。
原文
That’s true as well of our experience in the market with the group. Since our original purchases, valuation gains have somewhat exceeded earnings growth because price/earnings ratios have increased. On a year-to-year basis, however, the business and market performances have often diverged, sometimes to an extraordinary degree. During The Great Bubble, market-value gains far outstripped the performance of the businesses. In the aftermath of the Bubble, the reverse was true.
显然,如果我能抓住这个钟摆的摆动,伯克希尔的业绩会好得多。当你透过一面永远干净的后视镜来看时,这似乎很容易做到。但不幸的是,投资者必须透过挡风玻璃来观察,而那块玻璃总是雾蒙蒙的。我们巨大的持仓规模更增加了我们随着估值波动而灵活进出市场的难度。
原文
Clearly, Berkshire’s results would have been far better if I had caught this swing of the pendulum. That may seem easy to do when one looks through an always-clean, rear-view mirror. Unfortunately, however, it’s the windshield through which investors must peer, and that glass is invariably fogged. Our huge positions add to the difficulty of our nimbly dancing in and out of holdings as valuations swing.
尽管如此,我仍然有理由被批评,因为在泡沫期间,我只是对令人窒息的估值发发牢骚,而没有根据我的观点采取行动。尽管我当时说过我们持有的一些股票定价过高,但我低估了估值过高的严重程度。我本该行动时却只是在空谈。
原文
Nevertheless, I can properly be criticized for merely clucking about nose-bleed valuations during the Bubble rather than acting on my views. Though I said at the time that certain of the stocks we held were priced ahead of themselves, I underestimated just how severe the overvaluation was. I talked when I should have walked.
查理和我现在希望看到一些行动。我们不喜欢坐拥430亿美元的现金等价物,却只能赚取微薄的回报。相反,我们渴望购买更多类似于我们目前拥有的部分股权,或者更好的是——直接收购更多大型企业。但无论哪种方式,我们只会在购买价格能为我们提供合理投资回报前景时才会出手。
原文
What Charlie and I would like is a little action now. We don’t enjoy sitting on $43 billion of cash equivalents that are earning paltry returns. Instead, we yearn to buy more fractional interests similar to those we now own or — better still — more large businesses outright. We will do either, however, only when purchases can be made at prices that offer us the prospect of a reasonable return on our investment.
我们反复强调,我们按季度或年度报告的”已实现”收益,从分析的角度看毫无意义。我们的账面上有大量未实现收益,而关于何时以及是否兑现这些收益,我们的想法完全取决于我们是否希望在某个特定时间点报告盈利。我们报告的收益还有一个复杂之处,那就是美国通用会计准则要求外汇合约按市值计价,这一规定导致这些持仓的未实现损益会像我们已经平仓一样,反映在我们的公布利润中。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
We’ve repeatedly emphasized that the “realized” gains that we report quarterly or annually are meaningless for analytical purposes. We have a huge amount of unrealized gains on our books, and our thinking about when, and if, to cash them depends not at all on a desire to report earnings at one specific time or another. A further complication in our reported gains occurs because GAAP requires that foreign exchange contracts be marked to market, a stipulation that causes unrealized gains or losses in these holdings to flow through our published earnings as if we had sold our positions.
尽管存在上述问题,但您可能对我们2003年和2004年报告的收益明细感兴趣。以下数据反映了实际销售情况,但货币收益除外,该部分包含了销售和按市值计价的综合结果。
| 类别 | 税前收益*(单位:百万美元)* | |
| 2004年 | 2003年 | |
| 普通股 | 870美元 | 448美元 |
| 美国政府债券 | 104 | 1,485 |
| 垃圾债券 | 730 | 1,138 |
| 外汇合约 | 1,839 | 825 |
| 其他 | (47) | 233 |
| 总计 | 3,496美元 | 4,129美元 |
原文
Despite the problems enumerated, you may be interested in a breakdown of the gains we reported in 2003 and 2004. The data reflect actual sales except in the case of currency gains, which are a combination of sales and marks to market.
| Category | Pre-TaxGain(in*$* millions) | |
| 2004 | 2003 | |
| Common Stocks | $ 870 | $ 448 |
| U.S. Government Bonds | 104 | 1,485 |
| Junk Bonds | 730 | 1,138 |
| Foreign Exchange Contracts | 1,839 | 825 |
| Other | (47) | 233 |
| Total | $3,496 | $4,129 |
垃圾债券的利润包含了外汇成分。当我们2001年和2002年买入这些债券时,首先关注的当然是发行人的信用质量,所有这些发行人都是美国公司。然而,其中一些公司发行了以外币计价的债券。基于我们对美元的看法,我们倾向于在可能时购买这些债券。
原文
The junk bond profits include a foreign exchange component. When we bought these bonds in 2001 and 2002, we focused first, of course, on the credit quality of the issuers, all of which were American corporations. Some of these companies, however, had issued bonds denominated in foreign currencies. Because of our views on the dollar, we favored these for purchase when they were available.
举个例子,2001年我们以面值的51.7%买入了2.54亿欧元的Level 3债券(2008年到期的10.75%利率债),并在2004年12月以面值的85%卖出。这一期债券以欧元交易,我们买入时欧元兑美元汇率为0.88美元,但卖出时却达到了1.29美元。因此,在我们1.63亿美元的总收益中,约8500万美元来自市场对Level 3信用质量的看法改善,剩余的7800万美元则来自欧元升值。(此外,在我们的持有期间,我们还获得了现金利息,按我们的美元成本计算,年化收益率约为25%。)
原文
As an example, we bought €254 million of Level 3 bonds (10 ¾% of 2008) in 2001 at 51.7% of par, and sold these at 85% of par in December 2004. This issue was traded in Euros that cost us 88¢ at the time of purchase but that brought $1.29 when we sold. Thus, of our $163 million overall gain, about $85 million came from the market’s revised opinion about Level 3’s credit quality, with the remaining $78 million resulting from the appreciation of the Euro. (In addition, we received cash interest during our holding period that amounted to about 25% annually on our dollar cost.)
媒体仍在报道”巴菲特买入”这只或那只股票。这类说法几乎总是基于伯克希尔向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件,因此是错误的。正如我之前说过的,这些报道应该说”伯克希尔买入”。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
The media continue to report that “Buffett buys” this or that stock. Statements like these are almost always based on filings Berkshire makes with the SEC and are therefore wrong. As I’ve said before, the stories should say “Berkshire buys.”
一位自律投资者的肖像
卢·辛普森
| 年份 | GEICO**股票投资回报率 | 标普500**回报率 | 相对表现 | |
| 1980 | 23.7% | 32.3% | (8.6%) | |
| 1981 | 5.4% | (5.0%) | 10.4% | |
| 1982 | 45.8% | 21.4% | 24.4% | |
| 1983 | 36.0% | 22.4% | 13.6% | |
| 1984 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.7% | |
| 1985 | 45.8% | 31.6% | 14.2% | |
| 1986 | 38.7% | 18.6% | 20.1% | |
| 1987 | (10.0%) | 5.1% | (15.1%) | |
| 1988 | 30.0% | 16.6% | 13.4% | |
| 1989 | 36.1% | 31.7% | 4.4% | |
| 1990 | (9.9%) | (3.1%) | (6.8%) | |
| 1991 | 56.5% | 30.5% | 26.0% | |
| 1992 | 10.8% | 7.6% | 3.2% | |
| 1993 | 4.6% | 10.1% | (5.5%) | |
| 1994 | 13.4% | 1.3% | 12.1% | |
| 1995 | 39.8% | 37.6% | 2.2% | |
| 1996 | 29.2% | 23.0% | 6.2% | |
| 1997 | 24.6% | 33.4% | (8.8%) | |
| 1998 | 18.6% | 28.6% | (10.0%) | |
| 1999 | 7.2% | 21.0% | (13.8%) | |
| 2000 | 20.9% | (9.1%) | 30.0% | |
| 2001 | 5.2% | (11.9%) | 17.1% | |
| 2002 | (8.1%) | (22.1%) | 14.0% | |
| 2003 | 38.3% | 28.7% | 9.6% | |
| 2004 | 16.9% | 10.9% | 6.0% | |
| 1980-2004年年均回报率 | 1980-2004年年均回报率 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% |
原文
Portrait of A Disciplined Investor
Lou Simpson
| Year | Return fromGEICOEquities | S&P**Return | Relative**Results | |
| 1980 | 23.7% | 32.3% | (8.6%) | |
| 1981 | 5.4% | (5.0%) | 10.4% | |
| 1982 | 45.8% | 21.4% | 24.4% | |
| 1983 | 36.0% | 22.4% | 13.6% | |
| 1984 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.7% | |
| 1985 | 45.8% | 31.6% | 14.2% | |
| 1986 | 38.7% | 18.6% | 20.1% | |
| 1987 | (10.0%) | 5.1% | (15.1%) | |
| 1988 | 30.0% | 16.6% | 13.4% | |
| 1989 | 36.1% | 31.7% | 4.4% | |
| 1990 | (9.9%) | (3.1%) | (6.8%) | |
| 1991 | 56.5% | 30.5% | 26.0% | |
| 1992 | 10.8% | 7.6% | 3.2% | |
| 1993 | 4.6% | 10.1% | (5.5%) | |
| 1994 | 13.4% | 1.3% | 12.1% | |
| 1995 | 39.8% | 37.6% | 2.2% | |
| 1996 | 29.2% | 23.0% | 6.2% | |
| 1997 | 24.6% | 33.4% | (8.8%) | |
| 1998 | 18.6% | 28.6% | (10.0%) | |
| 1999 | 7.2% | 21.0% | (13.8%) | |
| 2000 | 20.9% | (9.1%) | 30.0% | |
| 2001 | 5.2% | (11.9%) | 17.1% | |
| 2002 | (8.1%) | (22.1%) | 14.0% | |
| 2003 | 38.3% | 28.7% | 9.6% | |
| 2004 | 16.9% | 10.9% | 6.0% | |
| Average Annual Gain 1980-2004 | Average Annual Gain 1980-2004 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% |
即便如此,通常也不是我做出买入决定。卢·辛普森管理着GEICO持有的约25亿美元股票,伯克希尔报告的通常就是他的交易。他的买入规模通常在2-3亿美元左右,并且关注的公司规模比我关注的要小。看看对面那页,你就会明白为什么卢必定会入选投资名人堂。
原文
Even then, it is typically not I who make the buying decisions. Lou Simpson manages about $2½ billion of equities that are held by GEICO, and it is his transactions that Berkshire is usually reporting. Customarily his purchases are in the $200-$300 million range and are in companies that are smaller than the ones I focus on. Take a look at the facing page to see why Lou is a cinch to be inducted into the investment Hall of Fame.
你可能会惊讶地得知,卢并不一定要告诉我他在做什么。当查理和我分配责任时,我们确实会交出指挥棒——我们对待卢就像对待我们的运营经理一样。因此,我通常在每个月结束后的第十天左右才知道卢的交易。有时,应该补充一点,我会暗自不同意他的决定。但他通常是对的。
原文
You may be surprised to learn that Lou does not necessarily inform me about what he is doing. When Charlie and I assign responsibility, we truly hand over the baton — and we give it to Lou just as we do to our operating managers. Therefore, I typically learn of Lou’s transactions about ten days after the end of each month. Sometimes, it should be added, I silently disagree with his decisions. But he’s usually right.
外汇
伯克希尔在年底持有约214亿美元的外汇合约,分散在12种货币中。正如我去年提到的,此类持仓对我们来说是一个决定性的改变。在2002年3月之前,无论是伯克希尔还是我,都 从未 交易过货币。但越来越多的证据表明,我们的贸易政策将在未来多年给美元带来持续压力——因此自2002年以来,我们在制定投资方针时一直关注这一警告。(正如W.C.菲尔兹在被问及施舍时曾说过的那样:“对不起,孩子,我所有的钱都套在货币里了。“)
原文
Foreign Currencies
Berkshire owned about $21.4 billion of foreign exchange contracts at yearend, spread among 12 currencies. As I mentioned last year, holdings of this kind are a decided change for us. Before March 2002, neither Berkshire nor I had ever traded in currencies. But the evidence grows that our trade policies will put unremitting pressure on the dollar for many years to come — so since 2002 we’ve heeded that warning in setting our investment course. (As W.C. Fields once said when asked for a handout: “Sorry, son, all my money’s tied up in currency.”)
请明确一点:我们对货币的看法绝不基于对美国本身的怀疑。我们生活在一个极其富足的国家,这是一个重视市场经济、法治和机会平等体系的产物。我们的经济绝对是世界上最强大的,并且将继续如此。我们很幸运能生活在这里。
原文
Be clear on one point: In no way does our thinking about currencies rest on doubts about America. We live in an extraordinarily rich country, the product of a system that values market economics, the rule of law and equality of opportunity. Our economy is far and away the strongest in the world and will continue to be. We are lucky to live here.
但正如我在2003年11月10日为《财富》杂志撰写的一篇文章(可在berkshirehathaway.com上查阅)中所论证的那样,我们国家的贸易做法正在拖累美元。美元的贬值已经相当可观,但很可能还会持续。如果不改变政策,货币市场甚至可能变得混乱,并产生政治和金融方面的溢出效应。没有人知道这些问题是否会成为现实。但这种情况绝非小概率事件,政策制定者 现在 就应该考虑。然而,他们的倾向是偏向于并非良性的忽视:一份长达318页的关于持续贸易逆差后果的国会研究报告于2000年11月发布,此后便一直尘封。该研究报告是在1999年贸易逆差达到当时令人震惊的2630亿美元后下令进行的;到去年,逆差已升至6180亿美元。
原文
But as I argued in a November 10, 2003 article in Fortune, (available at berkshirehathaway.com), our country’s trade practices are weighing down the dollar. The decline in its value has already been substantial, but is nevertheless likely to continue. Without policy changes, currency markets could even become disorderly and generate spillover effects, both political and financial. No one knows whether these problems will materialize. But such a scenario is a far-from-remote possibility that policymakers should be considering now. Their bent, however, is to lean toward not-so-benign neglect: A 318-page Congressional study of the consequences of unremitting trade deficits was published in November 2000 and has been gathering dust ever since. The study was ordered after the deficit hit a then-alarming $263 billion in 1999; by last year it had risen to $618 billion.
需要强调的是,查理和我认为真正的贸易——即与其他国家的商品和服务交换——对我们和他们都有巨大的好处。去年我们有1.15万亿美元的这种名副其实的贸易,这种贸易越多越好。但是,如前所述,我们的国家还从世界其他国家额外购买了6180亿美元的商品和服务,而没有任何回报。这是一个惊人的数字,并且具有重要的后果。
原文
Charlie and I, it should be emphasized, believe that true trade — that is, the exchange of goods and services with other countries — is enormously beneficial for both us and them. Last year we had $1.15 trillion of such honest-to-God trade and the more of this, the better. But, as noted, our country also purchased an additional $618 billion in goods and services from the rest of the world that was unreciprocated. That is a staggering figure and one that has important consequences.
这种单向伪贸易的平衡项——在经济学中总是有抵消项——是财富从美国向世界其他地区的转移。这种转移可能表现为我们的私人或政府机构向外国人提供的借据,或者通过他们获得我们资产的所有权,例如股票和房地产。无论哪种情况,最终结果都是美国人拥有的国家财富份额减少,而非美国人拥有的份额增加。这种将美国财富强行喂给世界其他地区的行为,目前正以每天18亿美元的速度进行,比去年我写信给您时增加了20%。因此,其他国家和其公民现在净拥有美国约3万亿美元的资产。十年前,他们的净拥有量微不足道。
原文
The balancing item to this one-way pseudo-trade — in economics there is always an offset — is a transfer of wealth from the U.S. to the rest of the world. The transfer may materialize in the form of IOUs our private or governmental institutions give to foreigners, or by way of their assuming ownership of our assets, such as stocks and real estate. In either case, Americans end up owning a reduced portion of our country while non-Americans own a greater part. This force-feeding of American wealth to the rest of the world is now proceeding at the rate of $1.8 billion daily, an increase of 20% since I wrote you last year. Consequently, other countries and their citizens now own a net of about $3 trillion of the U.S. A decade ago their net ownership was negligible.
提到数万亿会让大多数人的大脑麻木。另一个混淆的根源是,经常账户赤字(三项之和,其中最重要的是贸易赤字)和我们的国家预算赤字常常被混为一谈,被称为”双胞胎”。它们根本不同。它们有不同的原因和不同的后果。
原文
The mention of trillions numbs most brains. A further source of confusion is that the current account deficit (the sum of three items, the most important by far being the trade deficit) and our national budget deficit are often lumped as “twins.” They are anything but. They have different causes and different consequences.
预算赤字绝不会减少美国人分得的国民蛋糕份额。只要其他国家和其公民对美国没有净所有权,那么在 任何 预算情景下,即使是涉及巨额赤字的情景,我们国家100%的产出都属于我们的公民。
原文
A budget deficit in no way reduces the portion of the national pie that goes to Americans. As long as other countries and their citizens have no net ownership of the U.S., 100% of our country’s output belongs to our citizens under any budget scenario, even one involving a huge deficit.
作为一个物质丰富的富裕”家庭”,美国人将通过他们的立法者争论政府应如何重新分配国家产出——即谁纳税,谁获得政府福利。如果早期的”福利”承诺必须重新审视,“家庭成员”将就谁承担痛苦进行激烈的内部辩论。也许税收会增加;也许承诺会被修改;也许更多的内部债务会被发行。但是当争论结束时,所有 家庭的大蛋糕仍然可供其成员分配,无论它如何分割。没有任何一块需要送到国外。
原文
As a rich “family” awash in goods, Americans will argue through their legislators as to how government should redistribute the national output — that is who pays taxes and who receives governmental benefits. If “entitlement” promises from an earlier day have to be reexamined, “family members” will angrily debate among themselves as to who feels the pain. Maybe taxes will go up; maybe promises will be modified; maybe more internal debt will be issued. But when the fight is finished, all of the family’s huge pie remains available for its members, however it is divided. No slice must be sent abroad.
庞大且持续的经常账户赤字会产生完全不同的结果。随着时间的推移,随着对我们的债权增长,我们对自己生产的产品拥有的份额越来越少。实际上,世界其他地区对美国产出的版税日益增加。在这里,我们就像一个持续超支的家庭。随着时间的推移,这个家庭会发现,它越来越多地是为”金融公司”工作,而为自己工作得越来越少。
原文
Large and persisting current account deficits produce an entirely different result. As time passes, and as claims against us grow, we own less and less of what we produce. In effect, the rest of the world enjoys an ever-growing royalty on American output. Here, we are like a family that consistently overspends its income. As time passes, the family finds that it is working more and more for the “finance company” and less for itself.
如果我们继续维持与目前相当的经常账户赤字,那么十年后其他国家和其公民对美国净拥有的资产将达到大约11万亿美元。而且,如果外国投资者仅从这些净持有中获得5%的收益,那么我们将需要 每年 向国外净输送5500亿美元的商品和服务,仅仅是为了偿还外国人当时持有的美国投资。到那时,即十年后,我们的国内生产总值可能总计约18万亿美元(假设低通胀,这远非确定之事)。因此,我们的美国”家庭”将需要将其年产出中的3%作为上贡送给世界其他地区,以偿还过去的过度放纵。在这种情况下,与涉及预算赤字的情况不同,儿子们将真正为父辈的罪孽付出代价。
原文
Should we continue to run current account deficits comparable to those now prevailing, the net ownership of the U.S. by other countries and their citizens a decade from now will amount to roughly $11 trillion. And, if foreign investors were to earn only 5% on that net holding, we would need to send a net of $.55 trillion of goods and services abroad every year merely to service the U.S. investments then held by foreigners. At that date, a decade out, our GDP would probably total about $18 trillion (assuming low inflation, which is far from a sure thing). Therefore, our U.S. “family” would then be delivering 3% of its annual output to the rest of the world simply as tribute for the overindulgences of the past. In this case, unlike that involving budget deficits, the sons would truly pay for the sins of their fathers.
这种每年向世界支付的版税——除非美国大幅减少消费并开始持续出现大规模贸易顺差,否则不会消失——无疑将在美国引发重大的政治动荡。美国人仍然会生活得非常好,实际上由于经济增长,会比现在更好。但他们会对永远向国外的债权人和所有者进贡的想法感到恼火。一个现在渴望成为”所有者社会”的国家,不会在——我在此使用夸张手法以强调——“佃农社会”中找到幸福。但正是我们的贸易政策——得到共和党人和民主党人的共同支持——正将我们带向那里。
原文
This annual royalty paid the world — which would not disappear unless the U.S. massively underconsumed and began to run consistent and large trade surpluses — would undoubtedly produce significant political unrest in the U.S. Americans would still be living very well, indeed better than now because of the growth in our economy. But they would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an “Ownership Society” will not find happiness in — and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis — a “Sharecropper’s Society.” But that’s precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us.
许多美国著名金融界人士,无论是政府内外的,都表示我们的经常账户赤字不可持续。例如,美联储公开市场委员会2004年6月29-30日的会议纪要指出:“工作人员指出,巨额外部赤字无法无限期持续。“但是,尽管权威人士不断扼腕叹息,他们却没有提出任何实质性的建议来遏制日益严重的失衡。
原文
Many prominent U.S. financial figures, both in and out of government, have stated that our current-account deficits cannot persist. For instance, the minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee of June 29-30, 2004 say: “The staff noted that outsized external deficits could not be sustained indefinitely.” But, despite the constant handwringing by luminaries, they offer no substantive suggestions to tame the burgeoning imbalance.
在16个月前我为《财富》杂志撰写的文章中,我警告说”美元温和贬值无法解决问题”。到目前为止,确实如此。然而,政策制定者仍然希望实现”软着陆”,同时建议其他国家刺激(读作”推高通胀”)其经济,并建议美国人增加储蓄。在我看来,这些劝告没有切中要害:存在根深蒂固的结构性问题,除非贸易政策发生重大改变,或者美元贬值到可能令金融市场不安的程度,否则这将导致美国继续出现巨额经常账户赤字。
原文
In the article I wrote for Fortune 16 months ago, I warned that “a gently declining dollar would not provide the answer.” And so far it hasn’t. Yet policymakers continue to hope for a “soft landing,” meanwhile counseling other countries to stimulate (read “inflate”) their economies and Americans to save more. In my view these admonitions miss the mark: There are deep-rooted structural problems that will cause America to continue to run a huge current-account deficit unless trade policies either change materially or the dollar declines by a degree that could prove unsettling to financial markets.
贸易现状的支持者喜欢引用亚当·斯密的话:“每个家庭行事中的谨慎,对一个伟大王国而言几乎不可能是愚蠢的。如果外国能以比我们自己制造更便宜的价格向我们提供某种商品,那么最好用我们自己的部分产业产品去购买它,这些产品应当用于我们具有某种优势的领域。”
原文
Proponents of the trade status quo are fond of quoting Adam Smith: “What is prudence in the conduct of every family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage.”
我同意。但是请注意,斯密先生的说法指的是以 产品 换 产品 的贸易,而不是像我们国家那样,每年以6000亿美元的规模用 财富 换取 产品。此外,我确信他绝不会建议”谨慎”在于他的”家庭”每天出售一部分农场来为其过度消费融资。然而,这正是名为美利坚合众国的”伟大王国”正在做的事情。
原文
I agree. Note, however, that Mr. Smith’s statement refers to trade of product for product, not of wealth for product as our country is doing to the tune of $.6 trillion annually. Moreover, I am sure that he would never have suggested that “prudence” consisted of his “family” selling off part of its farm every day in order to finance its overconsumption. Yet that is just what the “great kingdom” called the United States is doing.
如果美国出现6000亿美元的经常账户 盈余,全世界的评论员都会猛烈谴责我们的政策,视其为一种极端的”重商主义”——一种早已被抛弃的经济战略,在这种战略下,国家促进出口、抑制进口并积累财富。我也会谴责这样的政策。但是,无论是有意还是无意,世界其他地区实际上正在对美国实行重商主义,而我们的庞大资产储备和良好的信贷历史使之成为可能。事实上,世界决不会允许任何其他国家像我们这样无节制地使用以本国货币计价的信用卡。目前,大多数外国投资者是乐观的:他们可能将我们视为挥霍无度的瘾君子,但他们也知道我们是 富有的 瘾君子。
原文
If the U.S. was running a $.6 trillion current-account surplus, commentators worldwide would violently condemn our policy, viewing it as an extreme form of “mercantilism” — a long-discredited economic strategy under which countries fostered exports, discouraged imports, and piled up treasure. would condemn such a policy as well. But, in effect if not in intent, the rest of the world is practicing mercantilism in respect to the U.S., an act made possible by our vast store of assets and our pristine credit history. Indeed, the world would never let any other country use a credit card denominated in its own currency to the insatiable extent we are employing ours. Presently, most foreign investors are sanguine: they may view us as spending junkies, but they know we are rich junkies as well.
然而,我们的挥霍行为不会无限期地被容忍。尽管无法准确预测贸易问题将在何时以及如何解决,但不太可能以一种 提高 我们的货币相对于贸易伙伴货币价值的方式来解决。
原文
Our spendthrift behavior won’t, however, be tolerated indefinitely. And though it’s impossible to forecast just when and how the trade problem will be resolved, it’s improbable that the resolution will foster an increase in the value of our currency relative to that of our trading partners.
我们希望美国采取能够迅速且大幅减少经常账户赤字的政策。诚然,迅速的解决方案可能会导致伯克希尔在外汇合约上录得亏损。但是伯克希尔的资源仍然高度集中在以美元计价的资产上,一个强势美元和低通胀环境非常符合我们的利益。
原文
We hope the U.S. adopts policies that will quickly and substantially reduce the current-account deficit. True, a prompt solution would likely cause Berkshire to record losses on its foreign-exchange contracts. But Berkshire’s resources remain heavily concentrated in dollar-based assets, and both a strong dollar and a low-inflation environment are very much in our interest.
如果您想随时了解贸易和货币问题,请阅读《金融时报》。这家总部位于伦敦的报纸长期以来一直是每日国际财经新闻的主要来源,现在拥有一份出色的美国版。它的贸易报道和评论都是一流的。
原文
If you wish to keep abreast of trade and currency matters, read The Financial Times.This London-based paper has long been the leading source for daily international financial news and now has an excellent American edition. Both its reporting and commentary on trade are first-class.
再次强调我们通常的告诫:宏观经济是一场艰难的游戏,包括查理和我在内的很少有人展现出技巧。我们在货币判断上很可能是错误的。(事实上,如此多的权威人士现在预测美元走弱,这让我们感到不安。)如果是这样,我们的错误将会非常公开。具有讽刺意味的是,如果我们选择相反的做法,将伯克希尔的所有资产留在美元上,即使它们大幅贬值,也没有人会注意到我们的错误。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
And, again, our usual caveat: macro-economics is a tough game in which few people, Charlie and I included, have demonstrated skill. We may well turn out to be wrong in our currency judgments. (Indeed, the fact that so many pundits now predict weakness for the dollar makes us uneasy.) If so, our mistake will be very public. The irony is that if we chose the opposite course, leaving all of Berkshire’s assets in dollars even as they declined significantly in value, no one would notice our mistake.
约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在其精妙的《就业、利息和货币通论》中写道:“世俗的智慧教导我们,为维护声誉,遵循常规而失败,要好过标新立异而成功。“(或者,用不那么优雅的话来说,旅鼠作为一个群体可能会被嘲笑,但从来 没有 一只 个体 旅鼠会受到批评。)从声誉角度看,查理和我对我们的外汇承诺承担着明确的风险。但我们相信,管理伯克希尔就像我们全资拥有它一样。而如果是那样,我们就不会遵循只持有美元的政策。
原文
John Maynard Keynes said in his masterful The General Theory: “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” (Or, to put it in less elegant terms, lemmings as a class may be derided but never does an individual lemming get criticized.) From a reputational standpoint, Charlie and I run a clear risk with our foreign-exchange commitment. But we believe in managing Berkshire as if we owned 100% of it ourselves. And, were that the case, we would not be following a dollar-only policy.
杂项
• 去年我告诉过你们,一群田纳西大学的金融系学生在我们17亿美元收购克莱顿家园的过程中发挥了关键作用。早些时候,他们被他们的教授阿尔·奥克西耶带到奥马哈——他每年都会带一个班来——参观内布拉斯加家具城和波仙珠宝店,在戈拉特餐厅用餐,并在基维特广场与我进行问答环节。这些访客,就像那些来参加我们年会的人一样,对这座城市及其友好的居民印象深刻。
原文
Miscellaneous
• Last year I told you about a group of University of Tennessee finance students who played a key role in our $1.7 billion acquisition of Clayton Homes. Earlier, they had been brought to Omaha by their professor, Al Auxier — he brings a class every year — to tour Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheim’s, eat at Gorat’s and have a Q&A session with me at Kiewit Plaza. These visitors, like those who come for our annual meeting, leave impressed by both the city and its friendly residents.
其他大学现在也来拜访了。本学年,我们将接待来自芝加哥大学、达特茅斯学院(塔克商学院)、特拉华州立大学、佛罗里达州立大学、印第安纳大学、爱荷华大学、爱荷华州立大学、马里兰大学、内布拉斯加大学、西北拿撒勒大学、宾夕法尼亚大学(沃顿商学院)、斯坦福大学、田纳西大学、德克萨斯大学、德克萨斯农工大学、多伦多大学(罗特曼商学院)、联合大学和犹他大学的访问班级,人数从30到100不等。这些学生大多是MBA候选人,我对他们的素质印象深刻。他们对商业和投资有着浓厚的兴趣,但他们的提问表明,他们思考的不仅仅是赚钱。每次见到他们后,我都感觉很好。
原文
Other colleges and universities have now come calling. This school year we will have visiting classes, ranging in size from 30 to 100 students, from Chicago, Dartmouth (Tuck), Delaware State, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwest Nazarene, Pennsylvania (Wharton), Stanford, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Toronto (Rotman), Union and Utah. Most of the students are MBA candidates, and I’ve been impressed by their quality. They are keenly interested in business and investments, but their questions indicate that they also have more on their minds than simply making money. I always feel good after meeting them.
在我们的会议中,我告诉新来的学生关于田纳西大学团队及其发现克莱顿家园的故事。我这样做是本着一位农民的精神——他走进鸡舍,手里拿着一只鸵鸟蛋,告诫鸡群说:“姑娘们,我不想抱怨,但这就是竞争对手正在做的事情的一个小样品。“到目前为止,我们的新”侦察兵”还没有给我们带来交易。但他们的使命已经很明确了。
原文
At our sessions, I tell the newcomers the story of the Tennessee group and its spotting of Clayton Homes. I do this in the spirit of the farmer who enters his hen house with an ostrich egg and admonishes the flock: “I don’t like to complain, girls, but this is just a small sample of what the competition is doing.” To date, our new scouts have not brought us deals. But their mission in life has been made clear to them.
• 您应该了解一项会计规则,它以一种”今天痛苦,明天收获”的方式轻微扭曲了我们的财务报表。伯克希尔从个人和公司那里购买人寿保险单,否则这些保单会被退保以换取现金。作为保单的新持有人,我们支付任何到期的保费,并最终——在原持有人去世时——收取保单的面值。
原文
• You should be aware of an accounting rule that mildly distorts our financial statements in a pain-today, gain-tomorrow manner. Berkshire purchases life insurance policies from individuals and corporations who would otherwise surrender them for cash. As the new holder of the policies, we pay any premiums that become due and ultimately — when the original holder dies — collect the face value of the policies.
原保单持有人在购买保单时通常身体健康。尽管如此,我们支付的价格总是远高于其现金退保价值。有时,原保单持有人已借用现金退保价值来支付保费。在这种情况下,剩余的现金退保价值将非常小,我们的购买价格将是原保单持有人如退保所获金额的很多倍。
原文
The original policyholder is usually in good health when we purchase the policy. Still, the price we pay for it is always well above its cash surrender value (“CSV”). Sometimes the original policyholder has borrowed against the CSV to make premium payments. In that case, the remaining CSV will be tiny and our purchase price will be a large multiple of what the original policyholder would have received, had he cashed out by surrendering it.
根据会计准则,我们在购买保单时必须立即将支付价格超出现金退保价值的部分作为已实现资本损失列支。此外,我们每年还必须为维持保单有效所需支付的保费超出现金退保价值增加额的差额进行额外扣减。但显然,我们不认为这些账面扣减代表经济损失。如果我们认为如此,我们就不会购买这些保单。
原文
Under accounting rules, we must immediately charge as a realized capital loss the excess over CSV that we pay upon purchasing the policy. We also must make additional charges each year for the amount by which the premium we pay to keep the policy in force exceeds the increase in CSV. But obviously, we don’t think these bookkeeping charges represent economic losses. If we did, we wouldn’t buy the policies.
2004年,我们因购买保单(以及维持保单所需支付的保费)录得净”亏损”总计2.07亿美元,该亏损已从我们收益表中的已实现投资利润中扣除(包含在第17页表格的”其他”项中)。当未来收到这些保单的收益时,我们将把超出当时现金退保价值的部分记录为已实现投资收益。
原文
During 2004, we recorded net “losses” from the purchase of policies (and from the premium payments required to maintain them) totaling $207 million, which was charged against realized investment gains in our earnings statement (included in “other” in the table on page 17). When the proceeds from these policies are received in the future, we will record as realized investment gain the excess over the then-CSV.
• 在泡沫之后,有两项治理改革对伯克希尔特别有用,我责怪自己没有在多年前就实施它们。第一项是董事在没有首席执行官在场的情况下定期举行会议。我曾在19个董事会任职,在很多情况下,这一程序本可以使可疑的计划得到更彻底的审查。在少数情况下,必要的首席执行官变更也能更及时地进行。这个过程没有坏处,并且有许多潜在的好处。
原文
• Two post-bubble governance reforms have been particularly useful at Berkshire, and I fault myself for not putting them in place many years ago. The first involves regular meetings of directors without the CEO present. I’ve sat on 19 boards, and on many occasions this process would have led to dubious plans being examined more thoroughly. In a few cases, CEO changes that were needed would also have been made more promptly. There is no downside to this process, and there are many possible benefits.
第二项改革涉及”举报热线”,这是一种安排,员工可以通过它向我及董事会的审计委员会发送信息,而不用担心遭到报复。伯克希尔的极度分权化使得这套系统对我及委员会尤其有价值。(在一个拥有18万人的庞大”城市”里——伯克希尔目前的员工数量——并非每只掉落的麻雀都能被总部注意到。)我们收到的大多数投诉都是”我旁边那家伙有口臭”之类的,但偶尔我也会了解到子公司的一些重要问题,否则我可能会错过。提出的问题通常不是审计能发现的类型,而是与人事和商业行为有关。如果伯克希尔几十年前就设立了举报热线,今天会更有价值。
原文
The second reform concerns the “whistleblower line,” an arrangement through which employees can send information to me and the board’s audit committee without fear of reprisal. Berkshire’s extreme decentralization makes this system particularly valuable both to me and the committee. (In a sprawling “city” of 180,000 — Berkshire’s current employee count — not every sparrow that falls will be noticed at headquarters.) Most of the complaints we have received are of “the guy next to me has bad breath” variety, but on occasion I have learned of important problems at our subsidiaries that I otherwise would have missed. The issues raised are usually not of a type discoverable by audit, but relate instead to personnel and business practices. Berkshire would be more valuable today if I had put in a whistleblower line decades ago.
• 查理和我喜欢股东像所有者一样思考和行动的想法。有时这要求他们积极主动。在这个领域,大型机构所有者应该带头。
原文
• Charlie and I love the idea of shareholders thinking and behaving like owners. Sometimes that requires them to be pro-active. And in this arena large institutional owners should lead the way.
然而,到目前为止,机构采取的行动并不令人敬畏。通常,他们关注细枝末节,而忽略了三个真正重要的问题。第一,公司是否有合适的首席执行官?第二,他/她是否在薪酬方面越界?第三,提议的收购更可能创造还是破坏每股价值?
原文
So far, however, the moves made by institutions have been less than awe-inspiring. Usually, they’ve focused on minutiae and ignored the three questions that truly count. First, does the company have the right CEO? Second, is he/she overreaching in terms of compensation? Third, are proposed acquisitions more likely to create or destroy per-share value?
在诸如此类的问题上,首席执行官的利 益可能与股东的利益大相径庭。此外,董事有时缺乏推翻首席执行官的知识或勇气。因此,大型所有者聚焦这三个问题并在必要时发言至关重要。
原文
On such questions, the interests of the CEO may well differ from those of the shareholders. Directors, moreover, sometimes lack the knowledge or gumption to overrule the CEO. Therefore, it’s vital that large owners focus on these three questions and speak up when necessary.
相反,许多机构只是遵循一种针对 当下议题 的”清单式”方法。去年,我就成为了以这种方式做出的判断的接收方。几家机构股东及其顾问断定,我在担任可口可乐董事时缺乏”独立性”。一个团体希望将我赶出董事会,另一个则只想让我离开审计委员会。
原文
Instead many simply follow a “checklist” approach to the issue du jour. Last year I was on the receiving end of a judgment reached in that manner. Several institutional shareholders and their advisors decided I lacked “independence” in my role as a director of Coca-Cola. One group wanted me removed from the board and another simply wanted me booted from the audit committee.
我的第一反应是秘密资助持第二种想法的团体。为什么有人会希望加入审计委员会,这超出了我的理解。但由于董事必须被分配到某个委员会,而且没有首席执行官希望我加入他的薪酬委员会,所以我经常被分配到审计委员会。结果,反对我的机构失败了,我再次当选审计委员会成员。(我克制住了要求重新计票的冲动。)
原文
My first impulse was to secretly fund the group behind the second idea. Why anyone would wish to be on an audit committee is beyond me. But since directors must be assigned to one committee or another, and since no CEO wants me on his compensation committee, it’s often been my lot to get an audit committee assignment. As it turned out, the institutions that opposed me failed and I was re-elected to the audit job. (I fought off the urge to ask for a recount.)
一些机构质疑我的”独立性”,原因之一是麦克莱恩公司和乳品皇后公司购买大量可口可乐产品。(他们希望我们支持百事可乐吗?)但韦氏词典将”独立性”定义为”不受他人控制”。我无法理解怎么会有人得出结论,认为我们购买可口可乐会”控制”我的决策,而与之抗衡的是伯克希尔持有的80亿美元可口可乐股票的价值。假设我有一点点理性,初等算术就应该清楚表明,我的心思属于可口可乐的所有者,而不是它的管理层。
原文
Some institutions questioned my “independence” because, among other things, McLane and Dairy Queen buy lots of Coke products. (Do they want us to favor Pepsi?) But independence is defined in Webster’s as “not subject to control by others.” I’m puzzled how anyone could conclude that our Coke purchases would “control” my decision-making when the counterweight is the wellbeing of $8 billion of Coke stock held by Berkshire. Assuming I’m even marginally rational, elementary arithmetic should make it clear that my heart and mind belong to the owners of Coke, not to its management.
我忍不住要提一下,耶稣对独立性的校准比那些抗议的机构要清楚得多。在马太福音6:21中,他说道:“因为你的财宝在哪里,你的心也在哪里。“即使对机构投资者而言,80亿美元也足以被视为”财宝”,它远远超过了伯克希尔在常规交易中从可口可乐可能赚取的任何利润。
原文
I can’t resist mentioning that Jesus understood the calibration of independence far more clearly than do the protesting institutions. In Matthew 6:21 He observed: “For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.” Even to an institutional investor, $8 billion should qualify as “treasure” that dwarfs any profits Berkshire might earn on its routine transactions with Coke.
以圣经的标准来衡量,伯克希尔的董事会是一个榜样:(a) 每位 董事都来自一个至少持有400万美元股票的家庭;(b) 没有 人通过期权或赠予从伯克希尔获得这些股份;(c) 没有 董事从公司获得委员会、顾问或董事费用,这些费用超过其年收入的一小部分;(d) 尽管我们有标准的公司赔偿安排,但我们不为董事购买责任保险。
原文
Measured by the biblical standard, the Berkshire board is a model: (a) every director is a member of a family owning at least $4 million of stock; (b) none of these shares were acquired from Berkshire via options or grants; (c) no directors receive committee, consulting or board fees from the company that are more than a tiny portion of their annual income; and (d) although we have a standard corporate indemnity arrangement, we carry no liability insurance for directors.
在伯克希尔,董事会成员与股东走在同一条道路上。
原文
At Berkshire, board members travel the same road as shareholders.
查理和我看到了许多证实圣经中”财宝”观点的行为。根据我们丰富的董事会经验,我们认为 最不 独立的董事很可能是那些从董事会服务费中获得其年收入很大一部分(并且还希望被推荐到其他董事会任职,从而进一步提高收入)的人。然而,这些正是最常被归类为”独立”的董事会成员。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Charlie and I have seen much behavior confirming the Bible’s “treasure” point. In our view, based on our considerable boardroom experience, the least independent directors are likely to be those who receive an important fraction of their annual income from the fees they receive for board service (and who hope as well to be recommended for election to other boards and thereby to boost their income further). Yet these are the very board members most often classed as “independent.”
这类董事中的大多数是正派的人,并且工作出色。但如果他们没有受到诱惑去阻止那些可能威胁他们生计的行动,他们就不是人类了。有些人可能最终屈服于这些诱惑。
原文
Most directors of this type are decent people and do a first-class job. But they wouldn’t be human if they weren’t tempted to thwart actions that would threaten their livelihood. Some may go on to succumb to such temptations.
让我们看一个基于间接证据的例子。我亲历了一个最近的收购提议(不是来自伯克希尔),该提议得到管理层支持,获得公司投资银行家的认可,并且按计划将以高于该股票过去几年(或当前)交易价格的价格推进。此外,一些董事支持这项交易,并希望将其提交给股东。
原文
Let’s look at an example based upon circumstantial evidence. I have first-hand knowledge of a recent acquisition proposal (not from Berkshire) that was favored by management, blessed by the company’s investment banker and slated to go forward at a price above the level at which the stock had sold for some years (or now sells for). In addition, a number of directors favored the transaction and wanted it proposed to shareholders.
然而,他们的几位同僚,每人每年从董事会和委员会获得总计约10万美元的报酬,扼杀了这项提议,这意味着股东们从未得知这项价值数十亿美元的收购要约。非管理层董事除了从公司获得的股份外,几乎不持有任何股票。而他们近年来在公开市场上的购买也微不足道,尽管该股票的交易价格远低于提议的收购价格。换句话说,这些董事不想让股东获得X价格的要约,尽管他们自己一直拒绝以X价格的零头为自己购买股票。
原文
Several of their brethren, however, each of whom received board and committee fees totaling about $100,000 annually, scuttled the proposal, which meant that shareholders never learned of this multi-billion offer. Non-management directors owned little stock except for shares they had received from the company. Their open-market purchases in recent years had meanwhile been nominal, even though the stock had sold far below the acquisition price proposed. In other words, these directors didn’t want the shareholders to be offered X even though they had consistently declined the opportunity to buy stock for their own account at a fraction of X.
我不知道是哪些董事反对让股东看到这个收购要约。但我确实知道,10万美元对那些被认定为”独立”的董事中的一些人来说,是其年收入的重要部分,明确符合马太福音6:21中对”财宝”的定义。如果交易完成,这些费用将会终止。
原文
I don’t know which directors opposed letting shareholders see the offer. But I do know that $100,000 is an important portion of the annual income of some of those deemed “independent,” clearly meeting the Matthew 6:21 definition of “treasure.” If the deal had gone through, these fees would have ended.
无论是股东还是我,都永远不会知道是什么激励了那些持异议者。事实上,他们自己也不太可能知道,因为自身利益必然会模糊自我审视。不过,我们确实知道一件事:在拒绝这笔交易的同一场会议上,董事会投票决定大幅提高董事费用。
原文
Neither the shareholders nor I will ever know what motivated the dissenters. Indeed they themselves will not likely know, given that self-interest inevitably blurs introspection. We do know one thing, though: At the same meeting at which the deal was rejected, the board voted itself a significant increase in directors’ fees.
• 既然我们谈到自身利益,让我们再次转向那些希望夸大盈利的首席执行官仍然可以使用的、最重要的会计机制:股票期权不作为费用列支。延续这种荒谬做法的同谋是许多国会议员,他们无视所有四大会计师事务所、财务会计准则委员会所有成员以及几乎所有投资专业人士提出的论点。
原文
• While we are on the subject of self-interest, let’s turn again to the most important accounting mechanism still available to CEOs who wish to overstate earnings: the non-expensing of stock options. The accomplices in perpetuating this absurdity have been many members of Congress who have defied the arguments put forth by all Big Four auditors, all members of the Financial Accounting Standards Board and virtually all investment professionals.
我附上一篇我为《华盛顿邮报》撰写的专栏文章,描述了去年夏天众议院以312-111票通过的一项真正令人瞠目结舌的法案。多亏参议员理查德·谢尔比,参议院没有批准众议院的愚蠢行为。此外,值得高度赞扬的是,以投资者为本的美国证券交易委员会主席比尔·唐纳森顶住了巨大的政治压力,这些压力来自挥舞着支票的首席执行官们,他们先是在1993年就期权会计问题对国会施压,然后在去年又重施故技。
原文
I’m enclosing an op-ed piece I wrote for The Washington Post describing a truly breathtaking bill that was passed 312-111 by the House last summer. Thanks to Senator Richard Shelby, the Senate didn’t ratify the House’s foolishness. And, to his great credit, Bill Donaldson, the investor-minded Chairman of the SEC, has stood firm against massive political pressure, generated by the check-waving CEOs who first muscled Congress in 1993 about the issue of option accounting and then repeated the tactic last year.
因为混淆股票期权问题的企图仍在继续,有必要指出,没有人——无论是财务会计准则委员会、一般投资者,还是我——在以任何方式谈论限制期权的使用。实际上,我在伯克希尔的继任者可能会通过期权获得大部分薪酬,尽管是逻辑结构合理的,涉及1)适当的行权价格,2)反映留存收益的价格上涨,以及3)禁止他迅速处置通过期权购买的任何股票。我们欢迎激励管理层的安排,无论是现金奖金还是期权。如果公司真正从其发行的期权中获得了价值,我们认为没有理由因为记录其成本会减少它的使用。
原文
Because the attempts to obfuscate the stock-option issue continue, it’s worth pointing out that no one — neither the FASB, nor investors generally, nor I — are talking about restricting the use of options in any way. Indeed, my successor at Berkshire may well receive much of his pay via options, albeit logically-structured ones in respect to 1) an appropriate strike price, 2) an escalation in price that reflects the retention of earnings, and 3) a ban on his quickly disposing of any shares purchased through options. We cheer arrangements that motivate managers, whether these be cash bonuses or options. And if a company is truly receiving value for the options it issues, we see no reason why recording their cost should cut down on their use.
简单的事实是,某些首席执行官知道,如果期权被费用化,他们自己的薪酬将得到更合理的确定。他们还怀疑,如果采用现实的会计方法,他们的股票会以更低的价格出售,这意味着当他们出售个人持股时,从市场上获得的收益会更少。对这些首席执行官来说,这些不愉快的后果是一种命运,必须动用他们所有可用的资源来与之抗争——尽管他们用于这场斗争的资金通常不属于他们,而是由他们的股东提供的。
原文
The simple fact is that certain CEOs know their own compensation would be far more rationally determined if options were expensed. They also suspect that their stock would sell at a lower price if realistic accounting were employed, meaning that they would reap less in the market when they unloaded their personal holdings. To these CEOs such unpleasant prospects are a fate to be fought with all the resources they have at hand — even though the funds they use in that fight normally don’t belong to them, but are instead put up by their shareholders.
期权费用化计划于6月15日成为强制规定。因此,您可以预期从现在到那时,将会有更加强烈的努力来拖延或削弱这一规定。请让您的国会议员和参议员知道您对此问题的看法。
原文
Option-expensing is scheduled to become mandatory on June 15th. You can therefore expect intensified efforts to stall or emasculate this rule between now and then. Let your Congressman and Senators know what you think on this issue.
年会
今年的年会有两个变化。首先,我们将会议安排在四月的最后一个星期六(30日),而不是通常的五月的第一个星期六。今年母亲节是5月8日,要求波仙珠宝和戈拉特餐厅的员工在那个特殊时刻照顾我们是不公平的——所以我们将所有活动提前一周。明年我们将恢复正常时间,在2006年5月6日举行会议。
原文
The Annual Meeting
There are two changes this year concerning the annual meeting. First, we have scheduled the meeting for the last Saturday in April (the 30th), rather than the usual first Saturday in May. This year Mother’s Day falls on May 8, and it would be unfair to ask the employees of Borsheim’s and Gorat’s to take care of us at that special time — so we’ve moved everything up a week. Next year we’ll return to our regular timing, holding the meeting on May 6, 2006.
此外,我们正在改变4月30日(会议日)的活动顺序。一如既往,奎斯特中心的门将在早上7点打开,电影将在8点30分放映。然而,在9点30分,我们将直接进入问答环节,该环节(允许在奎斯特中心的摊位吃午餐)将持续到下午3点。然后,经过短暂的休息,查理和我在下午3点15分召开年会。
原文
Additionally, we are changing the sequence of events on meeting day, April 30. Just as always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m. and the movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30, however, we will go directly to the question and answer period, which (allowing for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:00. Then, after a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:15.
我们做出这一改变,是因为去年许多股东抱怨两位发言者占用了时间,他们宣扬的提案对大多数听众兴趣有限——而且无疑他们很享受向约19,500名”囚禁”听众讲话的机会。通过我们的新程序,那些希望听完所有内容的股东可以留下来参加正式会议,那些不想听的可以离开——或者更好的是去购物。
原文
We have made this change because a number of shareholders complained last year about the time consumed by two speakers who advocated proposals of limited interest to the majority of the audience — and who were no doubt relishing their chance to talk to a captive group of about 19,500. With our new procedure, those shareholders who wish to hear it all can stick around for the formal meeting and those who don’t can leave — or better yet shop.
在毗邻会议区的巨大展厅里,将有充足的机会进行这种活动。凯利·穆赫莫尔,伯克希尔的弗洛·齐格菲尔德,去年举办了一场盛大的购物盛宴,她说那只是今年的热身活动。(我很高兴地报告,凯利将在十月结婚。我会把她交出去,并建议她通过在年会上举行婚礼来创造一点历史。然而,当查理坚持要当伴郎时,她退缩了。)
原文
There will be plenty of opportunity for that pastime in the vast exhibition hall that adjoins the meeting area. Kelly Muchemore, the Flo Ziegfeld of Berkshire, put on a magnificent shopping extravaganza last year, and she says that was just a warm-up for this year. (Kelly, I am delighted to report, is getting married in October. I’m giving her away and suggested that she make a little history by holding the wedding at the annual meeting. She balked, however, when Charlie insisted that he be the ringbearer.)
我们将再次展示一座2100平方英尺的克莱顿家园(配有阿克米砖、肖地毯、约翰斯·曼维尔隔热材料、MiTek紧固件、无忧遮阳篷和NFM家具)。请参观一下这座房子。更好的是,买下它。
原文
Again we will showcase a 2,100 square foot Clayton home (featuring Acme brick, Shaw carpet, Johns Manville insulation, MiTek fasteners, Carefree awnings and NFM furniture). Take a tour through the home. Better yet, buy it.
GEICO将设立一个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶级顾问提供服务,他们都准备为您提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下,GEICO可以给您提供一项特殊的股东折扣(通常为8%)。这项特殊优惠在我们运营的50个司法管辖区中的45个获得许可。请携带您现有保险的详细信息,看看我们是否能为您省钱。
原文
GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 45 of the 50 jurisdictions in which we operate. Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money.
周六,在奥马哈机场,我们将有NetJets®的常规飞机供您参观。请到奎斯特中心的NetJets展位了解如何观看这些飞机。乘巴士来奥马哈;开您的新飞机离开。
原文
On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets® available for your inspection. Stop by the NetJets booth at the Qwest to learn about viewing these planes. Come to Omaha by bus; leave in your new plane.
书虫书店去年出售伯克希尔相关书籍做得很好。展示了18种书籍,售出2,920册,销售额61,000美元。因为我们不收书店租金(我肯定变软了),它给股东提供20%的折扣。今年我请书虫书店增加了格雷厄姆·艾利森的《核恐怖主义:最终可预防的灾难》,这是关心我们国家安全的人必读之书。此外,书店将首卖由彼得·考夫曼汇编的《穷查理宝典》。学者们长期以来一直在争论查理是否是本·富兰克林的转世。这本书应该能解决这个问题。
原文
The Bookworm shop did a terrific business last year selling Berkshire-related books. Displaying 18 titles, they sold 2,920 copies for $61,000. Since we charge the shop no rent (I must be getting soft), it gives shareholders a 20% discount. This year I’ve asked The Bookworm to add Graham Allison’s Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, a must-read for those concerned with the safety of our country. In addition, the shop will premiere Poor Charlie’s Almanack, a book compiled by Peter Kaufman. Scholars have for too long debated whether Charlie is the reincarnation of Ben Franklin. This book should settle the question.
随本报告附上的委托材料附件解释了如何获得参加会议和其他活动所需的凭证。至于飞机、酒店和汽车预订,我们再次与美国运通(800-799-6634)签约,以提供特别帮助。他们每年都为我们做得很出色,我对此表示感谢。
原文
An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. They do a terrific job for us each year, and I thank them for it.
在内布拉斯加家具城,位于72街Dodge街和Pacific街之间的77英亩地块上,我们将再次推出”伯克希尔周末”定价。我们八年前在NFM首次推出这一特惠活动,“周末”期间的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2004年的2510万美元(比上年增长45%)。每年都创下新纪录,去年周六,我们实现了NFM历史上单日最高销售额——610万美元。
原文
At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” pricing. We initiated this special event at NFM eight years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $25.1 million in 2004 (up 45% from a year earlier). Every year has set a new record, and on Saturday of last year, we had the largest single-day sales in NFM’s history — $6.1 million.
要获得折扣,您必须在4月28日星期四至5月2日星期一期间购物,并出示您的会议凭证。这一时期的特别定价甚至适用于多个知名制造商的产品,这些制造商通常有严格的反折扣规定,但本着我们股东周末的精神,为您破例。我们感谢他们的合作。NFM周一至周六的营业时间为上午10点至晚上9点,周日的营业时间为上午10点至下午6点。今年周六下午5点30分至8点,我们将为股东举办一场特别活动。我会在那里,吃烧烤,喝可乐。
原文
To get the discount, you must make your purchases between Thursday, April 28 and Monday, May 2 inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. we are having a special affair for shareholders only. I’ll be there, eating barbeque and drinking Coke.
波仙珠宝——除蒂芙尼曼哈顿店外全美最大的珠宝店——将举办两场仅限股东参加的活动。第一场是4月29日星期五下午6点到10点的鸡尾酒会。第二场,主要盛会,将于5月1日星期日上午9点到下午4点举行。周六,我们将营业到下午6点。
原文
Borsheim’s — the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany’s Manhattan store — will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, April 29. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Sunday, May 1. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m.