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2010年年度股东大会

上午场

1. 开幕致辞

沃伦·巴菲特:早上好。我是沃伦,他是查理。他能听,我能看。我们因此合作。(笑声)想对电影做一个更正。我的快球是用慢动作拍摄的。他们试了常规方式,你根本看不见球,所以——(笑声)我们今天的安排是:先宣布几件事,公布我们的收益,并向大家介绍董事。但一结束这些,我们就开始回答问题。我们会一直回答到中午。然后休息一小时,下午1点回来。在放映厅的各位,届时或许可以进入主会场。我们会回答问题到3:30,然后举行年会和业务会议,如果那时还有人留下的话。届时将进行董事选举。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Good morning. I’m Warren, he’s Charlie. He can hear, I can see. We work together for that reason. (Laughter) Like to make one correction in the movie. My fast ball was filmed in slow motion. They tried the regular way and you couldn’t even see it, so — (Laughter) Our approach today will be to announce a couple of things, our earnings, and introduce you to the directors. But as soon as that’s through, we’ll move on to questions. We’ll have those until noon. We’ll break for an hour and we’ll come back at 1:00. Those of you who are in the overflow rooms may find that you can get into the main arena here at that time. And we’ll go till 3:30 with the questions and then we’ll have the annual meeting, business meeting, for those of you who are still around at that point. And at that time, we will have the election of directors.

2. 介绍董事会

沃伦·巴菲特:但由于不是所有人都能留到那时,我想向大家介绍一下董事们,我会请他们起立。请大家等他们全部站起后再鼓掌,或者甚至鼓掌到他们坐下后也行——(笑声)——这样会让会议非常有序。我们从霍华德·巴菲特开始。按字母顺序,接下来是我。我们的新董事,史蒂夫·伯克。他们没听到”保持站立”那部分,但没关系。他们通常相当听话,不过——(笑声)苏珊·德克尔。比尔·盖茨。大卫·戈茨曼,桑迪·戈茨曼。夏洛特·盖曼。唐·基奥今天无法出席。他刚经历了一次大手术,但恢复得非常好,在座有很多他的朋友,明年他会与我们在一起。查理,我们已经介绍过了。汤姆·墨菲。罗恩·奥尔森,我们电影中的经理。还有沃尔特·斯科特。现在你们可以为他们热烈鼓掌了。

(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: But because not all of you may be here at that time, I would like to introduce the directors to you, and I’ll ask them to stand. And if you’ll hold your applause until they’re all done standing, or you can even hold it after that — (laughter) — it will make — it will make for a very orderly meeting. So let’s start in with Howard Buffett. I’m the next one alphabetically. Our new director, Steve Burke. They didn’t hear the part about stay standing, but that’s OK. They’re generally fairly obedient, but the — (laughter) Susan Decker. Bill Gates. David Gottesman, Sandy Gottesman. Charlotte Guyman. Don Keough is unable to be with us today. He’s had a serious operation but he’s recovering very well and he’s got a lot of friends in this audience and he’ll be with us next year. Charlie, we’ve already introduced. Tom Murphy. Ron Olson, the manager in our movie. And Walter Scott. Now you can go wild with applause for the group.

(Applause)

3. 经济”蹒跚复苏”有所起色

沃伦·巴菲特:现在,在开始提问之前,我们有第一季度的初步收益数据。我想请放映员打出幻灯片A。这些数字并没有什么真正令人意外的,但我们想分享给大家。上面显示得清楚吗?好的。如果稍后你们对这些数据有任何问题。我们在自己的业务中看到的是,几个月前那种有点蹒跚的复苏,似乎在3月和4月加速了。那些服务于广泛行业的企业,比如铁路、Marmon或ISCAR,我们看到相当不错的增长。这距离几年前的水平还有很大差距,但几个月前复苏中非常不均衡的状况,在过去几个月里趋势确实强了不少。我们一直鼓励大家关注运营收益。我们在那里列出了投资和衍生品业务的数据。我们真的不认为它们在季度层面上有任何意义。显然,年复一年它们是有意义的。

我的意思是,多年来我们通过资本收益积累了大量净资产。但在任何一个季度,它们绝对毫无意义。你们还会注意到我们报告中的另一件事。我们甚至不列出——当我们公开发布时必须列——但我们甚至不列出每股收益。我们不关注任何一个季度或任何一年的这个数字。我们关注的是价值的积累。我们真的认为,过度关注季度收益,不仅对投资者可能是个坏主意,我们认为对管理者也是个糟糕的主意。如果我告诉我们的经理们,本季度我们要赚3美元17.5美分,你知道,他们可能会稍微做些手脚,以确保我们实际达到那个数字。几个月前发表了一项非常有趣的研究,其中检查了数千份收益报告。他们没有像惯常那样四舍五入到美分,而是进一步取了一位小数。

当然,如果再取一位小数,如果是4或更少,你就向下舍入,如果是5或更多,你就向上舍入。他们发现,出现4的次数在统计上是不可能的——数量很少——因为如果到了0.4美分,不知何故会计部门的人总会再找到0.1美分,这样他们就可以向上舍入。这不是意外。而且,你不希望——在我们看来,我们认为试图报告到你之前几个月向华尔街分析师暗示的某个美分数字,是一种糟糕的做法。在伯克希尔,我们可能把这一点推向了极端。但我们总是把企业看作一个整体。我们思考的是如何随着时间的推移积累价值。我们不担心每股收益,也不担心投资收益或亏损。查理可能想就此说几句。查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,我同意你的看法。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。他是完美的副董事长。(笑声)没有比这更好的了。好了。有了这些初步情况——我们或许应该就此打住了,其实。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Now, before we start with the questions, we do have preliminary earnings figures for the first quarter. And I’d like to ask the projectionist to put up slide A. There’s nothing really very surprising in these numbers, but we’d like to give them to you. They up there OK? Yeah. If you have any questions on these later on. What we’re seeing in our businesses is that, in what was sort of a sputtering recovery a few months ago, seems to have picked up steam in March and April. And our businesses that kind of serve broad industry, such as the railroad or Marmon or ISCAR, we’re seeing a pretty good uptick. It’s a long way from where it was a couple years ago, but what was very spotty in the recovery a couple of months ago, the trends really seem a fair amount stronger in the last few months. And we always encourage you to focus on operating earnings. We have the figures there for our investments and derivative businesses. We don’t really think they mean anything on a quarterly basis. Obviously, they’re meaningful over the years.

I mean, we’ve piled up a lot of net worth over the years with capital gains. But in any quarter, they mean absolutely nothing. And you’ll notice another thing about our report. We don’t even put down — we have to when we publish generally — but we don’t even put down the earnings per share. We’re not focused on that number in any quarter or any year. We’re focused on the buildup of value. And we really think that an undue focus on quarterly earnings, not only is probably a bad idea for investors, but we think it’s a terrible idea for managers. If I had told our managers that we would earn three dollars and 17 1/2 cents for the quarter, you know, they might do a little fudging in order to make sure that we actually came out at that number. And there was a very interesting study that was published a few months ago where thousands of earnings reports were examined. And instead of taking it out to the penny, which is customary in the reporting, they took it out one further digit.

And of course if you go out one further digit, and it’s four or less, you round downward, and if it’s five or more, you round upward. And they found out that a statistically impossible number of — small number — of fours showed up because if they got to four-tenths of a cent, somehow somebody in the accounting department managed to find another tenth of a cent so they could round upward. It was not an accident. And, you do not want to have — in our view, we think it’s terrible practice to be thinking about trying to report to some penny that you’ve whispered to Wall Street analysts in previous months. And we probably carry that to an extreme at Berkshire. But we always think of the enterprise as a whole. We think about building value over time. And we do not worry about earnings per share, and we don’t worry about investment gains or losses. Charlie may want to weigh in on this one a bit. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I agree with you. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. He is the perfect vice chairman. (Laughter) They don’t come any better. OK. With that preliminary — we probably ought to quit at that point, actually. (Laughter)

4. 介绍记者小组

沃伦·巴菲特:我们将轮流由三位记者组成的小组提问。这边最右边是《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯。(掌声)我们不是完全按字母顺序来的。还有《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金。(掌声)以及CNBC的贝基·奎克。(掌声)安德鲁似乎为自己占了一个座位,以便在提问顺序中更靠前,但我大概会坚持按字母顺序。我们会在记者之间轮流,然后我们会到礼堂各处,那里有些人是通过抽签选出来提问的。我们还会去,我想,其中一个放映厅;我们有很多放映厅,但不会全部去。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We’re going to alternate the questions between a panel of three journalists here. We have Carol Loomis of Fortune magazine on the — on the far right. (Applause) And we didn’t do it quite alphabetically. We have Andrew Ross Sorkin from The New York Times. (Applause) And Becky Quick of CNBC. (Applause) Andrew’s maneuvered for a seat there, apparently, to get earlier in the questioning order, but I’ll probably stick with the alphabetical list. And we will alternate between our journalists, and then we will go around the auditorium here where people have been chosen by chance to ask questions. And we also will go to just I guess one of the overflow rooms; we have a whole lot of overflow rooms, but we’ll not go to all of them.

5. 删除段落

沃伦·巴菲特:那么,我们开始吧。卡罗尔?

卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,既然我在字母顺序上赢了彩票,我也要做两个非常简短的声明。一是我们收到了非常非常多的问题。我们真的不知道有多少,因为有些人把问题同时发给了我们三个人。但我猜我们收到了大概1500到2000个问题。显然,我们不可能全部问完,对于那些我们没有问到的问题,我们表示抱歉。那些都是非常好的问题,我们感谢大家为此付出的努力。另一件事我想提的是,沃伦和查理对问题内容完全没有任何暗示,所以他们必须临场应对。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: So let’s just start things off. Carol?

CAROL LOOMIS: Well, since I won the alphabetical lottery, I get to make two very short statements also. One is that we received an awful lot of questions. We really don’t know how many because some people sent their question to all three of us. But I would guess we had something between 1,500 and 2,000 questions. And obviously, we’re not going to be able to ask all of those, and we’re sorry for those we didn’t get to ask. They were very good questions and we appreciate the work that people put into them. The other thing I want to mention is that Warren and Charlie have had absolutely no hint as to what the questions will be so they will have to field them just as they come up.

6. 巴菲特强力为高盛辩护

卡罗尔·卢米斯:不过,沃伦和查理或许足够聪明,能猜到第一个问题将是关于话题A,也就是高盛。我收到了好几封关于SEC起诉高盛的邮件,全都问了关于这个问题的不同方面。我把这些问题中的几个想法结合了起来,并感谢Greg Firman、摩根士丹利的Kai Pan、Brian Chan和Vic Timono,以下是问题:沃伦,每年在伯克希尔的电影里,你今天又这么做了,你使用了所罗门危机时的片段,你在那里告诉国会,你已经警告所罗门的员工,如果他们损害了公司声誉的一丝一毫,你会毫不留情地反应。显然,高盛因SEC的行动而失去了声誉。你能告诉我们你对这起诉讼的反应,以及考虑到这一点,你对伯克希尔在高盛的大笔投资的反思吗?并且,基于你自己在所罗门的经验,你会给高盛的董事会和管理层什么建议?

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。每当你问我这些多重问题时,我可能会回头让你重复所有部分。但是,让我们从这笔交易开始,因为这才是重要的。几周前的一个周五,一笔名为ABACUS的交易成为了SEC投诉的主题。我想投诉书大约有22页。我认为可能存在着某种非故意的、但至少在我读过的大部分报道中,对这笔交易性质的错误报道。所以,我想——这需要一点时间,但我认为这是一个重要的话题。我想先过一遍这笔交易。然后我们再深入探讨那些给卡罗尔发邮件的人提出的问题。ABACUS交易,有四个输家,但我们将重点关注其中两个。高盛本身是一个输家。我确定他们不是有意成为输家的。

他们无法出售这笔交易的一部分——他们保留了它,我想因为他们保留了它,他们损失了90或1亿美元。但就实际现金支出而言,主要的输家是一家名为荷兰银行(ABN AMRO)的非常大的欧洲银行,该银行随后成为苏格兰皇家银行的一部分。那么,荷兰银行为什么会亏损?他们亏损是因为,他们实际上担保了另一家公司ACA的信用。荷兰银行的主营业务是判断信用,决定自己接受哪些信用,担保哪些信用。实际上,他们做了一些在保险界被称为”前台交易”的事情,这实际上意味着担保另一方的信用。我们在伯克希尔做过很多次。我们为此获得了报酬。人们不想要XYZ保险公司的信用,但他们会说,如果我们担保,他们就接受XYZ的保单。多年来,伯克希尔通过担保赚了很多钱。

查理还记得1970年代初期,我们遇到了一些非常不诚实的人,我们赔了钱,当时赔了相当多的钱,因为我们担保了一个后来证明不太好的信用。碰巧是劳合社的一些辛迪加。但他们找到了方法,在我们的名字在上面时却不支付。所以荷兰银行同意担保一家名为ACA的公司的约9亿美元信用。他们为此获得了报酬,这在SEC的投诉中有提到,但不常被提及,他们获得了多少,17个基点,也就是0.17%。所以他们承担了9亿美元的信用担保风险。他们获得了大约160万美元的报酬。而他们担保信用的公司破产了,所以他们不得不支付9亿美元。我很难对一家银行做了一个愚蠢的信用交易感到非常同情。但我们来看看ACA,因为他们可以说是这笔交易的核心。

ACA,你们可能从大多数新闻报道中并不真正了解,是一家债券保险公司。他们最初是一家市政债券保险公司。他们担保各种信用,就像Ambac、MBIA、FGIC、FSA一样。所有这些公司——我们在几年前的报告中写过——所有这些公司都是从担保市政债券开始的。有些是30年前开始的。市政债券保险是一个大业务。然后市政债券业务的利润率开始收窄。那么他们做了什么?他们没有坚持自己了解的业务并接受较低的利润,而是走出去,进入了担保结构化信用和各种其他不同交易业务。我在几年前的年度报告中把他们的一些活动描述为有点像梅·韦斯特所说的:“我曾经是白雪公主,但我漂移了。“(笑声)这些债券保险公司——几乎都这么做了——这些债券保险公司漂移到了担保他们不那么了解但可以多赚点钱的领域。

ACA做了,MBIA做了,AMBAC做了,FGIC做了,FSA做了,它们都陷入了困境,每一个都是。现在,一家债券保险公司担保结构化信用或市政债券以外的其他东西有什么问题吗?没有。但你最好知道你在做什么。有趣的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦,当其他公司陷入困境时,进入了市政债券保险业务。我们担保的东西与ACA或其他公司担保的几乎相同,区别在于我们认为我们更了解我们在做什么。我们得到的报酬比他们好,而且我们避开了我们不理解的东西。我们从未担保过CDO;我们从未担保过任何类型的RMBS交易或诸如此类的东西。但我想给你们一个我们确实担保过的例子,因为我认为这能帮助你们更好地理解ABACUS交易。所以,如果放映员能打出幻灯片1,我将向你们描述一笔交易。当你们看这个的时候——它已经上去了吗?好的。

几年前有人来找我们。我稍后会告诉你们名字。但一家大型投资银行几年前来找我们。那时我们经常担保债券。我们在这里为奥马哈公共电力区的债券提供担保,这是你们很多人都熟悉的。我们还为内布拉斯加卫理公会医院的债券提供担保,这家医院离这里六七英里。我们告诉人们,如果内布拉斯加卫理公会医院不支付其债券,伯克希尔·哈撒韦将支付。我们为他们的案例已经这样做了大约1亿美元。所以我们从事的是债券保险业务。几年前,有人来找我们,一家大型投资银行,他们说:“看看这个投资组合。“正如你们所见,它有一大堆州的名字。是的,它上去了。金额非常不同。佛罗里达州有11亿美元;加利福尼亚州只有2亿美元。

他们对我说:“你愿意为这些州担保吗?这些州的这些债券,未来10年会支付吗?如果任何州不支付,作为保险人你必须支付。“我看着名单,阿吉特·贾因也看着名单,我们必须决定:A) 我们是否足够了解来担保它们,以及B) 我们要收取多少保费,因为这就是我们做这行的目的。我们不必担保它们。我们可以说:“算了。我们了解得不够,无法做决定。“但我们做出了决定,我们提出以大约1.6亿美元的价格为这些债券提供10年期的担保。所以我们收取了略高于1.6亿美元的保费,而另一方的某人,他们称之为对手方,另一方的某人,在10年内获得了保证:如果这些州不支付,我们将像它们支付了一样来支付。这就触及了SEC针对高盛案件的核心——或者说投诉的核心。

有人带着这个名单来找我们;我们并没有编造这个名单。另一个方来找我们。现在,大约有四种可能性。现在我要告诉你们两年前来找我们的那个方是谁:是雷曼兄弟。所以雷曼兄弟,大约有四种可能性。雷曼兄弟可能持有这些债券,并希望获得信用保护。他们可能只是看空债券市场,实际上是通过这种方法做空。他们可能有一个客户持有这些债券,想要购买信用保护。或者他们可能有一个客户看空这些债券,只是想做空。我们不在乎是哪种情况。我们的工作是评估这些债券的风险并确定适当的保费。如果他们告诉我本·伯南克在交易的另一边,对我来说没有任何区别。如果我必须关心谁在交易的另一边,我就不应该做债券保险。他们甚至可以告诉我查理在另一边。

(笑声)所以,实际上,我们对这些债券的做法,与ACA对他们被提交的债券的做法完全相同。现在,ACA说,对于提交给他们的120种债券的名单,他们说:“其中有大约50种我们愿意担保。“然后他们回去谈判,又承担了30种。我们可以说,大概,“我们不太喜欢德克萨斯州,它太大了,有11.5亿美元,我们宁愿你们给我们更多佛罗里达州的债券,“或者类似的话。我们没有这么做。我们只是接受了提交的名单。所以,完全是对方选择的名单由我们来担保。在ABACUS交易的情况下,关于哪些债券被纳入,有点像双方协商的。最终,ABACUS交易中纳入的债券很快就都出了问题。在2007年初,这并不那么明显会发生,正如你们可以通过研究所谓的ABX指数看到的那样。但房地产泡沫——实际上是狂热——在2007年开始破裂。

现在,我们担保的这些州可能会出现问题。你可以说它们有巨大的养老金义务,也许在另一边做空的人比我们更了解这一点,但是,你知道,那是我们的问题。我的意思是,如果我们想担保债券,以ACA、MBIA为例,他们有团队来做这件事。我们只是在伯克希尔用几个人来做。但我看不出任何问题——我的意思是,如果我们在这债券上亏了很多钱,我不会去找交易另一边的人说:“哎呀,你占了我便宜。“我不在乎约翰·保尔森是不是在向我做空这些债券。他不用担心我会声称他比我对这些州的财务状况有更优越的知识或诸如此类。所以,基本上这就是ABACUS交易。我认为争论的核心是保尔森比债券保险人更了解这些债券。

我的猜测是,债券保险人的雇员比约翰·保尔森在他的业务中的雇员更多,他们只是做了一个——事后看来——成为一个愚蠢的保险决策。对我来说,我实在看不出来,交易的另一边是约翰·保尔森,还是高盛,还是伯克希尔·哈撒韦,有什么区别。假设我们在2007年初决定以某种方式做空房地产市场。我认为如果我们这么做了,没人应该责备我们的立场。我们没有这么做。或者如果我们做了多头。我想,在进入卡罗尔问题的其他部分之前,我请查理发表意见,因为查理有法学学位,并且在其他方面比我优秀,所以让我们听听他的看法。

查理·芒格:嗯,我的态度很简单。这是SEC委员们以3比2做出的决定,而通常他们是全体一致行动的。如果我在SEC,我会投票支持少数派的两人,而不是授权诉讼的那三人。

沃伦·巴菲特:卡罗尔,你能指出我们可能还没回答的三个部分吗?然后我来处理这个。但我真的觉得理解这笔交易很重要。我还没看到——我看到ACA被称为投资者。ACA确实有一家管理公司,但它100%由ACA拥有。ACA是一家债券保险公司,纯粹而简单。他们有这个——事后看来非常简单——组织的某一部分做了这个和那个。但ACA亏损是因为他们是债券保险公司。是的,卡罗尔?

卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,我假设你已经涵盖了”你能告诉我们你对诉讼的反应”这部分。那么下一部分是你的反思,考虑到这一点,关于伯克希尔在高盛的大笔投资。然后是第三部分,根据你的所罗门经历和你所植下的声誉主线,你会给什么建议。这是最后两部分。

沃伦·巴菲特:讽刺的是,非常讽刺的是,它在某种程度上可能帮了我们在高盛的投资,因为我们有50亿美元的优先股,每年支付给我们5亿美元。高盛有权,合法权利,以面值的110%赎回它。所以只要他们愿意,他们可以随时给伯克希尔55亿美元,摆脱这支每年花费他们5亿美元的优先股。如果我们得到了这55亿美元,我们会立即把它投入非常短期的证券,在今天的条件下,可能每年产生2000万美元左右的东西。所以高盛每多一天不赎回我们的优先股,就是银行存款。有人指出,我们的优先股每秒钟付给我们15美元。所以当我们坐在这里,滴答——(笑声)——滴答,滴答,每滴答一声就是15美元。(掌声)我不想让这些滴答声停止。(笑)我就是爱它们。它们在我晚上睡觉时也在继续——(笑声)——周末也是。

坦率地说,高盛很想摆脱这支优先股。我的意思是,他们之所以同意卖给我们这支优先股,只是因为那是在危机的高峰期。美国政府,我不确定是哪部分,可能是美联储,但他们一直在告诉接受TARP资金的公司,他们是否可以增加股息,是否可以赎回优先股,等等。到目前为止,很可能联邦政府一直在帮我们一个大忙,告诉——甚至在这件事发生之前——他们可能一直在告诉高盛:“在我们告诉你之前,你不能赎回那支优先股。你也不能增加你的股息。“他们对所有TARP公司都非常强硬。这一点没有被太多宣传,但请相信我,事实就是如此。所以我坐在这里只是希望——基本上,希望美联储,或无论谁,会继续——非常强硬——在允许高盛赎回我们的优先股方面。但这不会永远持续下去。

我认为——我认为最近的发展可能推迟了赎回我们的优先股一段时间,所以滴答、滴答、滴答——(笑声)——会继续,我们将每年收到5亿美元而不是2000万美元。我们热爱这项投资,并且我预计——关于失去声誉的问题。毫无疑问,仅仅是指控本身就导致公司失去声誉,显然过去几周的媒体报道,它们伤害了公司。它们会伤害士气,很多事情。没什么——完全不是致命的或类似的,但它有伤害。顺便提一下,高盛在30到40年前曾涉及宾夕法尼亚中央铁路的情况。那时也造成了伤害。他们曾与一个涉及博斯基的人有联系,那时也造成了伤害。这对当时经营高盛的约翰·温伯格来说是极大的痛苦。但我不认为某些指控属于我定义的失去声誉的范畴。如果某事被证实,那么你必须看看。

我的建议是,在某种紧急情况下——当某种违规行为被发现或被指控时,你知道,基本上,你们在我们的电影里看到了罗恩·奥尔森,他是团队经理。回到过去,当我们在所罗门一起处理类似情况时,我们的座右铭是:“做对。做快。说出来。了结它。“但”做对”是第一位的。我的意思是,你必须掌握正确的事实,因为如果你用错误的事实出去,你会被打倒,之后无法重来。但这确实意味着有时会有一些延迟。你必须从你自己的组织内部收集信息,你是处于守势的。我不会——我完全不反对高盛,仅仅因为SEC提出了指控。如果这导致了更严重的事情,你知道,那么我们会在那时审视情况。

但就我在ABACUS活动方面看到的,我只是不认为——我看不出这与抱怨几年前给我担保的市政债券名单有什么不同。查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,我同意所有观点。但我也认为,每家企业都应该拒绝大量完全合法且可以接受的业务。换句话说,商业的标准不应是合法和方便。标准应该不同。而且我认为,美国任何一家有影响力的投资银行,都没有不接纳太多不靠谱客户、不做太多不靠谱证券的。

沃伦·巴菲特:我同意这一点。但是,查理——(掌声)——你认为我们当初应该做我们的市政债券交易吗?

查理·芒格:我认为这是个比你认为的更接近的案例。

沃伦·巴菲特:(笑)好的。我们现在大概担保了400亿美元的市政债券。过去一年我们做得很少,不是因为查理刚才表达的观点,而基本上是因为价格不对,保费不对。当保费不对时,其他人的反应是承担更多风险。而当保费不对时,我们的反应就是去打高尔夫球或做些别的,并告诉别人等保费恢复正常再找我们。我确实想——查理和我会对华尔街发生的许多活动发表我们的看法,我们也认为很多事情出了问题。但我想指出的是,我们与高盛的交往可以追溯到44年前。在那段时间里,我们通过他们购买的企业比通过任何其他华尔街投行都多。我们可能做了更多的融资。他们帮助建立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦。我们也与他们交易。我们不聘请他们作为投资顾问。他们有一个很大的投资咨询业务,你知道,我们的反应是:“不了,谢谢。”

你知道,我们自己决定投资。但当我们与他们交易时,他们很可能向我们做空我们正在买入的股票。你知道,他们可能为自己账户买入我们正在卖出的股票。他们没有义务向我们透露他们的仓位,就像我们不需要向他们解释我们的理由或我们在做什么一样。我们在那里是以非受托人的身份行事,而他们,在我看来,当与我们交易时也是以非受托人的身份行事。现在,如果他们代表我们在进行收购或融资,那就是另一回事了。但我想说,我们与高盛有很多非常满意的交易。我不想延长这个话题。我不会在更多问题上这样做。但我想——在座的有些人会记得——我想带你们回到查理和我做的第一笔债券发行。那是我们的首次航行,我想是在1967年。是的。

如果我们能打出幻灯片2,我将引导你们注意——这是一份1967年的发行说明书。我们刚买了一家百货公司,我们有一家公司叫Diversified Retailing。现在,Diversified Retailing只拥有一家零售企业,但在那些日子我们有点想象力,所以我们叫它Diversified Retailing。(笑声)我们出去筹集550万美元。奥马哈的查理·海德,你们很多人认识,帮我做了融资。你会注意到我们的墓碑广告上,最上面两行是”纽约证券”和”第一内布拉斯加证券”。他们是主承销商。按照墓碑的惯例,下面列有一组承销商,通常按参与程度排列。换句话说,他们参与得越多,在列表上的位置就越高,主承销商在最上面。我见过的每一个墓碑都是这样,除了这个。

这个情况是,我们在筹集550万美元时遇到了困难。我打电话给高盛的格斯·利维,还打电话给基德尔·皮博迪的阿尔·戈登。当时他们是华尔街最负盛名的两家公司。我说:“你们能帮我吗?我们想筹集550万美元,但没有愿意给查理和我550万美元的人。我们已经联系好的承销商也遇到了困难。“格斯·利维和阿尔·戈登都对我说:“沃伦,我们会拿一大块。“如果你们打出幻灯片3,你们会看到承销商名单,高盛和基德尔·皮博迪被高亮显示,它们实际上是仅次于最大的承销商。但是他们对自己与我们的这个微不足道的小公司有关联感到如此羞愧,以至于他们要求我们不要列出他们的名字。(笑声)他们想用化名给我们钱。(笑声)但他们确实——他们确实为我们帮了忙。他们确实为我们帮了忙。

相信我,那时很多人都不帮我们。我对那些长期照顾伯克希尔的人有着长久的记忆。阿尔·戈登去年去世了,享年107岁。他一直工作到104岁。他是个非凡的人。格斯·利维是个非凡的人。我感谢他们的参与,尽管他们想用化名来做。(笑声)

原文

CAROL LOOMIS: However, Warren and Charlie may be smart enough to have guessed that the first question will be about topic A, which is Goldman Sachs. And I received several emails about the SEC’s lawsuit against Goldman, all of them asking a different question about that problem. I have combined the several thoughts in these questions, and with thanks to Greg Firman (PH), Kai Pan (PH) of Morgan Stanley, Brian Chan (PH), and Vic Timono (PH), here is the question: Warren, every year in the Berkshire movie, you did it again today, you use the clip from the Salomon crisis in which you tell Congress that you have warned Salomon’s employees that if they lose a shred of the firm’s reputation, you will be ruthless in your reaction. Clearly, Goldman Sachs has lost reputation because of the SEC’s action. Could you tell us your reaction to the lawsuit, your reflections in light of it about Berkshire’s large investment in Goldman? And what advice, in light of your own Salomon experience, you would give Goldman’s board of directors and management?

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Anytime you ask me these multiple questions, I may go back to you to get all parts. But, well, let’s start with the transaction, because that’s the important thing. A few weeks ago on a Friday, a transaction described as ABACUS was made the subject of an SEC complaint. I think it ran about 22 pages. And I think there’s been probably sort of misreporting, not intentional obviously, but misreporting of the nature of that transaction in at least — probably a majority of the accounts that I’ve read about it. So, I would like — this will take a little time, but I think it’s an important subject. I would like to go through that transaction first. And then we’ll get further into the questions posed by the people that emailed Carol. The transaction, the ABACUS transaction, there were four losers in, but we’re going to focus on two of them. Goldman itself was a loser. They didn’t intend to be a loser, I’m sure.

They couldn’t sell the piece — a piece of the transaction — and they kept it, and I think they lost 90 or $100 million because they kept it. But the main loser, in terms of actual cash out, was a very large bank in Europe named ABN AMRO, which subsequently became part of the Royal Bank of Scotland. Now, what did ABN AMRO — why did they lose money? They lost money because they, in effect, guaranteed the credit of another company, ACA. ABN AMRO was in the business of judging credits, deciding what credits they would accept themselves, what credits they would guarantee. And in effect, they did something in the insurance world called fronting a transaction, which really means guaranteeing the credit of another party. We have done that many times at Berkshire. We get paid for it. And people do not want the credit of the XYZ insurance company but they say they’ll take a policy from XYZ if we guarantee it. And Berkshire has made a lot of money guaranteeing things over the years.

And Charlie can remember back to the early 1970s when we ran into some very dishonest people and we lost money, and we lost a fair amount of money at that time, because we guaranteed the credit of somebody that turned out to be not so good. It happened to be some syndicates at Lloyd’s, of all things. But they found ways not to pay when our name was on it. So ABN AMRO agreed to guarantee about $900 million of the credit of a company called ACA. They got paid for that, and this is in the SEC complaint. It’s not mentioned very often, but they got paid, what, 17 basis points, that’s 17/100 of 1 percent. So they took on a $900 million risk of guaranteeing credit. They got paid about a million-six. And the company whose credit they guaranteed went broke, and so they had to pay the 900 million. It’s a little hard for me to get terribly sympathetic with the fact that a bank made a dumb credit deal. But let’s look at ACA, because they were sort of the nub of the transaction.

ACA, and you wouldn’t really know this by reading most press accounts, ACA was a bond insurer. Now, they started out as a municipal bond insurer. They guaranteed various credits and they were like Ambac, they were like MBIA, they were like FGIC, they were like FSA. And all of those companies — and we wrote about this a few years ago in the report — all of those companies started out insuring municipal bonds. Some of them started 30 years ago. And there was a big business in insuring municipal bonds. And then the profit margins started getting squeezed in the municipal bond business. So what did they do? Instead of sticking to the business they knew and accepting lower profits, they went out and got into the business of insuring structured credits and all kinds of different other deals. I described their activities a couple years in the annual report as being a little bit like Mae West who said, “I was Snow White but I drifted.” (Laughter) These bond insurers — and almost all of them did it — these bond insurers drifted into insuring things they didn’t understand quite as well but where they could make a little more money.

ACA did it, MBIA did it, AMBEC did it, FGIC did it, FSA did it, and they all got into trouble, every one of them. Now, is there anything wrong with a bond insurer insuring structured credit or something other than municipals? No. But you better know what you’re doing. Now, interestingly enough, Berkshire Hathaway, when these other guys got into trouble, went into the municipal bond insurance business. And we insured things that were almost identical to what ACA or others had insured, the difference being that we thought we knew more about what we were doing. We got paid better than they got paid, and we stayed away from things we didn’t understand. We never insured a CDO; we never insured any kind of a RMBS deal or anything of the sort. But I want to give you an example of something we did insure, because I think it will help you understand better this ABACUS transaction. So if the — if the projectionist would put up slide number 1, I’m going to describe a deal to you. And as you — as you look at this — is it up there yet? Yeah.

Somebody came to us a couple of years ago. I’ll tell you the name a little later. But a large investment bank came to us a couple of years ago. Now, we were insuring bonds regularly. We insured bonds here of the Omaha Public Power District that’s familiar to many of you. We insured the bonds of the Nebraska — of the Methodist Hospital, which is six or seven miles from here. We have told people that if the Nebraska Methodist Hospital does not pay its bonds, Berkshire Hathaway will pay them. And we’ve done that to the tune of about $100 million in their case. So we are in the business of insuring bonds. Now, a couple of years ago, somebody came to us, large investment bank, and they said, “Take a look at this portfolio.” And as you can see, it’s got the names of a whole bunch of states. Yeah, it’s up there. And very different amounts. It’s got a billion-one for Florida; it’s only got 200 million for the State of California.

And they said to us, “Will you insure these states, that these bonds of these states, will pay for the next 10 years? If any of the states don’t pay, you have to pay as the insurer.” And I looked at the list, Ajit Jain looked at the list, and we had to decide, A) whether we knew enough to insure them, and B) what premium we would charge, because that’s what we’re in the business for. And we don’t have to insure them. We can say, “Forget it. We don’t know enough to make the decision.” But we made the decision and we offered to insure those bonds for about $160 million for 10 years. So we collected a premium of a little over 160 million, and somebody on the other side, the counterparty they call it, somebody on the other side, for 10 years, gets an assurance that, if these states don’t pay, we will pay as if they did pay. And this gets to the crux of the SEC’s case — or complaint — in respect to Goldman.

Somebody came to us with this list; we didn’t dream up the list. Another party came to us. Now, there’s about four possibilities. Now I’ll tell you who the party was that came to us two years ago: It was Lehman Brothers. So Lehman Brothers, there’s four possibilities, roughly. Lehman Brothers might own these bonds and want protection against the credit. They might just be negative on the bond market and, in effect, be shorting these bonds and using this method as a way of shorting it. They might have a customer that owned these bonds who wanted to buy protection against the credit. Or they might have a customer who was negative on these bonds and was simply wanting to short it. We don’t care which scenario exists. It’s our job to evaluate the risk of the bonds and to determine the proper premium. If they told me Ben Bernanke was on the other side of the trade, it wouldn’t make any difference to me. If I have to care about who’s on the other side of the trade, I should not be insuring bonds. They could have told me Charlie was on the other side of the trade.

(Laughs) So, in effect, we did with these bonds exactly what ACA did with the bonds that were presented to them. Now, ACA said, with the list of 120 that was presented to them, they said, “There’s about 50 of these that we’re willing to insure.” And then they went back and negotiated and took on 30 more of them. We could have said, presumably, “We don’t like Texas that well at a billion-150, and we’d rather have you give us more Floridas,” or something like that. We didn’t do it. We just took the list that was submitted. So it was totally the other guy’s list that we insured. In the case of the ABACUS transaction, it was sort of a mutual — a negotiation — as to which bonds were included. Now, in the end, the bonds that were included in the ABACUS transaction all went south very quickly. That wasn’t quite so obvious they were going to do that in early 2007, as you could see by studying something called the ABX Index. But the housing bubble — really, mania — started blowing up in 2007.

Now, there could be troubles in these states that we insured. You can say they have big pension obligations, and maybe the guy who’s shorting them on the other side knows more about that than we do, but, you know, that is our problem. I mean, if we want to insure bonds, in the case of ACA, in the case of MBIA, they have teams of people do it. We just do it with a couple people at Berkshire. But I see nothing whatsoever — I mean, if we lose a lot of money on these bonds, I am not going to go to the guy on the other side of the transaction and say, “Gee, you took advantage of me.” I don’t care if John Paulson is shorting these bonds to me. He has no worries that I’m going to claim that he had superior knowledge about the finances of these states or anything of the sort. So that was basically the ABACUS transaction. I think the central part of the argument is that Paulson knew more about the bonds than the bond insurer did.

My guess is the bond insurer employed more people than John Paulson did in his business, and they just made — they made what turned out, in retrospect, to be a dumb insurance decision. And for the life of me, I don’t see whether it makes any difference whether it was John Paulson on the other side of the deal, or whether it was Goldman Sachs on the other side of the deal, or whether it was Berkshire Hathaway on the other side of the deal. Let’s say we had decided to short the housing market in some way in early 2007. I don’t think anybody should blame us for taking our position if we did it. We didn’t do it. Or if we’d taken the long side. I think before we get to the other part of Carol’s questions, I’d ask Charlie to comment as this as Charlie has a law degree, and in other ways is superior to me, so we’ll get his views.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, my attitude is quite simple. This was a three-to-two decision by the SEC commissioners under circumstances where they normally act unanimously. If I had been on the SEC, I would have voted with the minority two and not with the three who authorized the lawsuit.

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol, would you get to the three parts that we probably haven’t answered yet? And then I’ll tackle this one. But I really feel it’s important to understand the transaction. I have not seen — I have seen ACA referred to as an investor. It’s true that ACA had a management company, but it was 100 percent owned by ACA. ACA was a bond insurer, pure and simple. And they had this — very simple, as it turned out — and they had one part of the organization did this and that. But ACA lost money because they were a bond insurer. Yep, Carol?

CAROL LOOMIS: Well, I’m assuming that you have covered the part that says could you tell us your reaction to the lawsuit. So the next part was your reflections, in light of it, about Berkshire’s large investment in Goldman. And then the third was what advice you would have, given your Salomon experience and the thread of reputation that you have planted, those words you have planted. Those are the last two parts.

WARREN BUFFETT: Ironically, very ironically, it’s probably helped our investment in Goldman in a certain way, because we have a $5 billion preferred stock that pays us $500 million a year. Goldman has the right, the legal right, to call that at 110 percent of par. So anytime they want to, they can sent Berkshire 5 1/2 billion, and they get rid of this preferred stock which is costing them 500 million a year. If we got that 5 1/2 billion in, immediately we’d put it in very short-term securities, which probably, under today’s conditions, might produce 20 million a year or something like that. So every day that goes by that Goldman does not call our preferred is money in the bank. It’s been pointed out that our preferred is paying us $15 a second. So as we sit here, tick — (laughter) — tick, tick, tick, that’s $15 every tick. (Applause) I don’t want those ticks to go away. (Laughs) I just love them. They go on at night when I sleep — (laughter) — on weekends.

And frankly, Goldman would love to get rid of that preferred. I mean, they only agreed to sell us that preferred because it was sort of at the height of the crisis. The U.S., I’m not sure what part of the government, probably the Fed, but they have been telling companies that took TARP money whether they could increase their dividends or not, whether they could redeem preferred, and all that. Up till now, probably the Federal Government has been doing us a big favor by telling — even before this thing happened — they’ve probably been telling Goldman that, “You can’t call that preferred until we tell you you can. And you can’t increase your dividend.” They’ve been pretty strong with all of the TARP companies. That has not been publicized too much, but believe me that it’s the case. So I was just sitting here hoping that the — basically, that the Fed, or whomever, would be — continue to be — quite tough, in terms of letting Goldman call our preferred. But it wasn’t going to go on forever.

I think that — I think recent developments have probably delayed the calling of our preferred by some time so the tick, tick, tick — (laughter) — will go on, and we will be getting $500 million a year instead of $20 million a year. We love the investment, and I would expect that — the question about losing reputation. There’s no question that the allegation alone causes the company to lose reputation, and obviously the press of the past few weeks, they hurt. They hurt a company. They can hurt morale, a lot of things. Nothing — it’s not remotely mortal or anything like that, but it hurts. Incidentally, Goldman Sachs had a situation in connection with the Penn Central, 30 — 40 years ago now. And that hurt at that time. They had a connection with one fellow in terms of Boesky that hurt at that time. And it was the source of great pain to John Weinberg, who was running Goldman. But I don’t believe that the allegation of something falls within my category of losing reputation. If something is proven, then you have to look at it.

My advice, in times of some kind of an emergent — when some transgression is either found or alleged, you know, basically, you saw Ron Olson in our movie, he was the manager of the team. And back when we were working at Salomon together in a somewhat similar situation, we had as our motto, “Get it right. Get it fast. Get it out. Get it over.” But, “Get it right,” was number one. I mean, you have to have your facts right, because if you go out with the wrong facts you get killed, and you can’t redo it afterwards. But that does mean sometimes some delay. You have to gather information from within your own organization, and you are on the defensive. I would not — I do not hold against Goldman at all the fact that an allegation has been made by the SEC. And if it leads into something more serious, you know, then we’ll look at the situation at that time.

But what I’ve seen in terms of the ABACUS activity, I just don’t — I do not see that that would be any different than me complaining about the list of municipals that were given to me to insure a couple of years ago. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I agree with all of that. But I also think that every business ought to decline a lot of business that’s perfectly legal and proper to accept. In other words, the standards in business should not be what’s legal and convenient. The standards should be different. And I don’t think there’s an investment bank in America of any consequence that didn’t take too many scuzzy customers and deal in too many scuzzy securities.

WARREN BUFFETT: I would agree with that. But, Charlie — (applause) — do you think we should have done our municipal bond deal?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think it was a closer case than you do.

WARREN BUFFETT: (Laughs) OK. We insure, probably, 40 billion now, or something like that, of municipal bonds. And we have done very little in the last year, not because of Charlie’s views that he just expressed, but basically because the price isn’t right, the premiums are wrong. And the reaction of other people when premiums are wrong is to take more risk. And our reaction when premiums are wrong is just to go play golf or something and tell somebody to call us when premiums get right again. I do want to — Charlie and I will give our views on a lot of the activities that have gone on on Wall Street, and we do think plenty has been wrong. I do want to point out, though, that our experience with Goldman goes back 44 years. And during those years, we’ve bought more businesses through them than through any other Wall Street investment bank. We’ve probably done more financing. They have helped build Berkshire Hathaway. And we trade with them as well. We don’t hire them as investment advisors. They have a big investment advisory business, and, you know, our reaction to that is, “No, thanks.”

You know, we are in the business of making our own decisions. But when we trade with them, they can very well be shorting to us a stock we’re buying. You know, they can be buying for their own account some stock we’re selling. They do not owe us a divulgence of their position any more than we need to explain to them our reasoning or what we are doing in our position. We are acting there in a non-fiduciary capacity, and they are operating in a non-fiduciary capacity, in my view, when they are trading with us. Now, if they’re working on our behalf on an acquisition or a financing, that’s a different story. But I would say that we have had a lot of very satisfactory transactions with Goldman Sachs. And I don’t want to prolong this. I won’t do this on any more questions. But I’d like to — some people here will remember this — I’d like to take you back to the very first bond issue that Charlie and I ever did. This was our maiden voyage back in 1967, I believe. Yeah.

And if we could put slide 2 up there, I will direct your attention to the — This is an offering that was made in 1967. We’d just bought a department store and we had a company called Diversified Retailing. Now, Diversified Retailing only owned one retailing operation, but we were sort of imaginative in those days, so we called it Diversified Retailing. (Laughter) And we went out to raise $5 1/2 million. And Charlie Heider of Omaha, whom many of you know, helped me in the financing. And you will notice our tombstone ad there has on the top two lines “New York Securities” and “First Nebraska Securities.” They were the lead underwriters. And as customary with tombstones, there are a group of underwriters listed below, and they’re usually listed in the degree of their participation. In other words, the more that they’re involved, the higher up in the list they are, with the lead underwriters on top. And that’s been true of every tombstone I’ve ever seen, except this one.

And what happened in this one was that we were having trouble raising $5 1/2 million. And I called Gus Levy of Goldman Sachs, and I called Al Gordon of Kidder Peabody. Those were two of the most prestigious firms in Wall Street at the time. And I said, “Would you guys help me? We’re trying to raise 5 1/2 million and there’s nobody that wants to give Charlie and me 5 1/2 million. And the underwriters we’ve lined up are having trouble getting it done.” And both Gus Levy and Al Gordon said to me, “Warren, we’ll take a big piece.” And if you’ll put — if you put up slide number 3, you will see the list of underwriters, and Goldman Sachs highlighted and Kidder Peabody highlighted were actually the next-largest underwriters. But they were so ashamed of being associated with our dinky little company that they asked us to leave their names off. (Laughter) They wanted to give us money under an assumed name. (Laughter) But they did — they did come through for us. They did come through for us.

And believe me, a lot of people weren’t coming through for us then. I do have a long memory for people that have taken good care of Berkshire over time. And Al Gordon died last year at the age of 107. He worked until he was 104. He was a remarkable man. Gus Levy was a remarkable man. And I thank them for their participation, even though they did want to do it under an assumed name. (Laughter)

7. 芒格:“我会让保罗·沃尔克看起来像个懦夫”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,我们进入——进入第一区域,我们会缩短回答。(笑)

观众:早上好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫盖伊·波普,来自俄勒冈州波特兰。我对你们关于国会目前正在进行的金融改革的看法很好奇。具体来说,你们认为有哪些好主意应该被纳入法案,以及哪些坏主意应该被排除?

沃伦·巴菲特:查理,法案有1550页,所以你管前1500页,我管最后50页。(笑声)

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为现在美国没有人,包括国会里的人,知道会发生什么。我的猜测是,他们大多数也没有读过法案。所以我认为我们都对将要发生的事情存疑——(掌声)。对我来说,有一件事非常清楚,那就是我们管理大型投资银行的政府体系是如此宽松,而投行文化又有某种性质,这两者共同作用下,在压力下,除了高盛,每家大型投行都会完蛋。一个很可能完蛋的系统,对国家又如此重要,应该被改变,以减少对银行和投行所做事情的许可。人们现在正在思考这个问题。银行和投行痛恨失去投资灵活性的想法。比如,在摩根大通维持世界上最大的衍生品账簿。他们痛恨放弃那些东西。

但这并不意味着允许他们继续像以前那样做对国家有好处。

沃伦·巴菲特:根据你对法案的了解,我知道你没有读完全部1550页,但今天你会投票支持它吗?

查理·芒格:我只是对它了解不够。如果我是美国的仁慈独裁者,我知道我会做什么。我会让保罗·沃尔克看起来像个懦夫。(笑声和掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:你想说得更具体些吗?那是一个相当生动的描述。(笑)想说得更具体些吗,查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,我会减少允许的活动。如果你实际是利用政府的信用来帮助你的业务运行,你不应该有一堆数万亿美元的财务报表,即使你是企业的合伙人,你实际上也无法理解。这是疯狂。引入系统的复杂性非常适得其反。当然,人们已经证明他们无法真正控制它。所以我认为我们需要一个新版本的格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案,大幅限制——(掌声)——商业银行和投资银行被允许做的事情。它们应该有一个更简单、更安全的业务模式。当我们拥有一家储蓄和贷款协会时,它可用的工具非常有限。当然,它有政府信用支持其存款。大体上,只要工具非常有限,储蓄和贷款协会就不会陷入麻烦。但是,如果你给人灵活性,让他们在回购系统和其他系统下,用完全无限的信用为所欲为,他们会变得极度疯狂。当然,他们确实这么做了。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, we’ll go to — we’ll go to area number 1 and we’ll shorten the answers. (Laughs)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Guy Pope and I’m from Portland, Oregon. I’m curious about your thoughts on financial reform that Congress is currently working on. Specifically, what are the good ideas that you think are out there that should be included in the bill, and what are the bad ideas that you think should be left out?

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie, it’s 1,550 pages so you take the first 1,500, I’ll take the last 50 pages. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t think anybody in America right now, including the people in Congress, know what’s going to happen. And my guess is that most of them have not read the bill, either. So I think we’re all in the doubt — (applause) — as to what’s going to happen. To me, one thing is perfectly clear and that is that our governmental system, which regulates the big investment banks, was so permissive and the investment banking culture had a nature, that together helped arrange that, under stress, every big investment bank except Goldman Sachs was going to go blooey. A system that likely to go blooey, that is so important to the country, should be changed so it’s less permissive in what it allows the banks and the investment banks to do. And people are thinking about that right now. The banks and investment banks just hate the idea of losing investment flexibility. For instance, on maintaining the biggest derivative book in the world at, say, JPMorgan Chase. They hate giving that stuff up.

That doesn’t mean that it’s good for the country that they be allowed to continue to do as they have done.

WARREN BUFFETT: Based on what you know about the bill, and I know you haven’t read all 1,550 pages, but would you vote for it today or not?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I simply don’t know enough about it. I know what I would do if I were the benevolent despot of America. And I would make Paul Volcker look like a sissy. (Laughter and applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: You want to get more specific than that? That’s quite a word picture. (Laughs) Want to get more specific, Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I would reduce the activities that are permitted. If you’re de facto using the government’s credit to help your business run, you shouldn’t have a bunch of financial statements in the trillions, which you can’t really understand even if you’re a partner in the business. This is crazy. The complexity that has come into the system is quite counterproductive. And of course, the people have proven they can’t really control it. So I think what we need is a new version of Glass-Steagall that drastically limits what — (applause) — what both commercial banks and investment banks are allowed to do. They should have a much simpler and safer mode of business. When we owned a savings and loan association, it had a very restricted repertoire that it could use. And of course, it had government credit for its deposits. And by and large, as long as the repertoire was quite limited, the savings and loans stayed out of trouble. But you give human beings the flexibility the do any damn thing they please with absolutely unlimited credit under the repo system and other systems, and they will go plum crazy. And of course, they did.

8. 我们不应该需要对过往交易追加抵押品

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。在这个令人振奋的基调上,我们转到贝基。(笑声)

贝基·奎克:我们收到了很多关于即将出台的金融监管立法的问题。这个问题来自杰伊·格尔布,他想跟进波普先生刚才提出的观点。“即将出台的金融改革立法对伯克希尔的预期影响是什么?特别是,伯克希尔现有的630亿美元衍生品合约可能需要追加多少额外抵押品?伯克希尔是否会因此过于接近其最低20亿美元现金持有量的要求?”

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。就我对目前法案的理解,几天前提交的那份——我可能错了,但我认为我理解它,并且我读了相关章节——要求是零。如果我们被认定——伯克希尔被认定为一个——我不知道法案中的确切术语——但基本上,对系统有危险,由财政部长或我认为某个委员会认定,那么我们可能被要求对追溯性合约——对过去签订的合约追加抵押品。我认为我们被认定为系统危险的可能性非常低,因为我们有250份合约,而其他公司有100万份合约——我们的头寸不久前在《华尔街日报》上被描述为”巨大”。你知道,以名义价值或负债或许多衡量方式,我们的头寸只是其他几家非常大机构的1%。所以我真的很想知道,如果你用”巨大”来形容我们的头寸,你会用什么词来形容100倍于我们的头寸?

那一定是个潜藏在某处的形容词,用来描述其他那些头寸。10年前我们收购通用再保险时,我们有23000个头寸。我们迅速处理掉了几乎所有,只剩不到100个。所以在我看来,我们绝对没有问题。但如果出于任何原因,财政部或这个委员会应该回过头来,也许以更广泛的声明方式,决定他们希望所有过去的合约都要有抵押品,我们显然会遵守。我们也会认为我们应得相当多的钱,因为在协商这些合约时,有抵押品的合约有一个价格,无抵押品的合约有另一个价格。所以如果我把我的房子以10万美元卖给你,如果带家具想要12万美元,但你说:“我以10万美元买不带家具的,“然后国会后来通过一项法律说:“所有房子必须带家具出售,而且,这个规定是追溯性的,“如果我现在给你家具,我想要一些补偿。有点不合理,也许。

我们确实认为——就在一周前,我们收到了一份股权看跌合约,基本上是一样的,是一份10年期的合约,来自一家最大的投行。他们愿意支付给我们无抵押品是750万美元,有抵押品是1100万美元。所以有抵押品的合约需要支付不同的价格。如果我们过去同意追加抵押品,我们本可以选择放弃大约10亿美元的额外保费。除少数例外,我们拒绝了。我们会觉得,如果有一天我们不得不追加抵押品,我们有权获得公平的补偿,我们希望法案中包含这样的语言。顺便说一下,盖特纳财长——我们打出幻灯片7。这是他在12月2日参议院农业委员会前的证词。正如你们所见,他非常强烈地论证了过去合约的神圣性。但如果明天法案通过,按照它向我们和我们的律师展示的样子,我们一分钱都不用给。

而且我认为,在伯克希尔·哈撒韦之前,可能还有其他一些公司会被认定对系统有危险。所以我真的看不出——我看不出任何后果——除非有某种广泛的声明说,任何具有一定规模、拥有衍生品的公司都必须提供抵押品。如果那样要求,我们会照做,这没问题。这——这会给我们带来机会成本方面的代价,但当然我们会争论什么样的抵押品是合适的等等。如果我们能提供我们的可口可乐股票,你知道,我们本来就会持有可口可乐股票。所以实际上什么也没改变。如果可口可乐股票被用作抵押品,我们仍然会收到它的股息,如果股价上涨我们仍然获利。查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,是的。如果抵押品要求是通过政府法令强加于现有合约,就像你签了合同以100万美元买房子,然后政府通过法律说:“不,你必须付200万美元。“我的意思是,其合宪性令人怀疑,而且既不公又愚蠢。我不认为政府那么疯狂。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:此外,我想他们会看到——有一整张清单,事实上我想我甚至有一页纸。是的,我们打出幻灯片8。这只是反对在未来被要求提供抵押品的人的一页样本。你会看到IBM、福特汽车、3M、HCA。我的意思是,有各种各样的公司未来不想做这件事。只要我们为此得到报酬,我们不在乎未来怎么做。所以这根本不是伯克希尔特有的事情。事实上,在这方面,我们恰好处于与IBM、3M等公司不同的位置。只要我们为此得到报酬,我们对未来的规则是什么毫不在意。但考虑到我们过去收取了较低的保费,我们不希望有什么追溯性的东西从我们口袋里拿钱。

但请记住,伯灵顿北方公司,当我们收购它时,它有一些燃料合约。中美能源有能源合约。几周前《商业周刊》有一篇关于安海斯-布希的报道。你知道,他们说:“我们不想把钱从我们的业务中拿出来送到华尔街作为抵押品存款。“我认为当——如果他们真的看到这事的净效应将是把大量本来用于运营业务的资金送去由华尔街持有时,国会的热情可能会少一点。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. On that cheery note, we’ll move to Becky. (Laughter)

BECKY QUICK: We received a lot of questions about the financial regulatory impending legislation. This question comes in from Jay Gelb, who wants to follow up on the point that Mr. Pope just made. “What’s the anticipated impact of pending financial reform legislation on Berkshire? In particular, how much additional collateral may need to be posted on Berkshire’s existed $63 billion of derivative contracts? And could Berkshire get too close to its minimum requirement of $20 billion of cash on hand as a result?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. As I understand the bill now, the one that got presented a couple of days ago — and I could be wrong but I think I understand it and I’ve read the sections — the requirements would be zero. If we were found — Berkshire were found — to be a — and I don’t know the exact term in the bill — but basically, dangerous to the system, by the secretary of the treasury, or I believe some commission, then we could be required to post collateral on retroactive contracts — on contracts that were written in the past. I think the chances of us being regarded as a danger to the system when we have 250 contracts and other companies have a million contracts — our position was described in the Journal not long ago as “huge.” You know, our position is 1 percent, in terms of notional value or liabilities or a lot of ways of measuring. It’s 1 percent of that of several other very large institutions. So I — I’ve really wondered if you use the word “huge” to describe our position, what you would use for 100 times that position?

That must be some adjective that lurks out there someplace to be attributed to those other positions. We had 23,000 positions 10 years ago when we bought Gen Re. And we proceeded promptly to get rid of all but less than a hundred that are left. So we have absolutely, in my view, we have no problems. If for any reason though, the Treasury or this commission should go back and maybe in some more sweeping declaration decide that they wanted all past contracts to be collateralized, we would comply, obviously. We also would feel that we were due substantial money because, in negotiating those contracts, there was one price for collateralized contracts and there was another price for uncollateralized. So if I sell my house to you for $100,000 and wanted $120,000 if it were furnished, but you said, “I’ll take it unfurnished for $100,000,” and then Congress comes along later on and says, “All houses have to be sold furnished, and by the way, that’s retroactive,” if I give you the furniture now I want something for it. A little unreasonable, maybe.

We do think — well, just a week ago we were offered an equity put contract that’s identical, basically, it’s a 10-year contract, by one of the very largest investment banking houses. The price that they would pay us was 7 1/2 million un-collateralized and $11 million collateralized. So there’s a very different — there’s a price to be paid for having a collateralized contract. And we elected to forgo probably a billion dollars of extra premiums we could have received in the past for our contracts if we had agreed to have them collateralized. And with a few exceptions, we declined that. And we would feel, if we ever had to collateralize them, we would be entitled to fair compensation for it, and we would like that language to be in the bill. And incidentally, Secretary Geithner — we’ll put up slide number 7. We have his testimony before the Senate Ag Committee on December 2nd. And as you can see, he testified very strongly, in terms of the sanctity of past contracts. But if the bill passes tomorrow, the way it reads to us and to our attorneys, we would not have to put up a dime.

And I would think there might be some other companies that would be determined to be dangerous to the system before Berkshire Hathaway would be. So I really — I don’t see any — I don’t see any consequences unless there’s some sweeping declaration that any company of a certain size that has derivatives shall be required to put up collateral. And if that’s required, we will, and it would be no problem. It would — it would have a cost to us in terms of the opportunity cost, but then of course we would argue about what collateral was proper and so on. And if we could put our Coca-Cola stock, you know, we’re going to hold our Coca-Cola stock anyway. So it really changes nothing. We still get the dividends from the Coca-Cola stock if it’s placed as collateral, we get the profit if it goes up. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, yes. If collateral requirements were inserted by fiat of the government into existing contracts, it would be just like having a contract to buy a house for a million dollars, and the government passing a law saying, “No, you’ve got to pay $2 million.” I mean, it would be of dubious constitutionality, and it would be both unfair and stupid. I don’t think the government is that crazy. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Plus, I think what they would see — there’s a whole list, in fact I think I’ve got a page even for that. Yeah, let’s put up slide number 8. And this is just a sample page of people who oppose putting up collateral — being required to put up collateral — prospectively. And you’ll see IBM, you’ll see Ford Motor, you’ll see 3M, you’ll see HCA. I mean, there’s all kinds of companies that don’t want to do it in the future. We don’t care what we do in the future as long as we get paid for it. So this is not anything that is peculiar to Berkshire at all. In fact, we happen to be in a different position than the IBMs and the 3Ms and those of the world, in respect to this. As long as we get paid for it, we’re indifferent to what the rules are going forward. But considering the fact that we took lesser premiums in the past, we would not like something retroactively to take money out of our pocket.

But bear in mind, Burlington Northern, when we buy it, it has some fuel contracts. MidAmerican has energy contracts. There was a story in Businessweek about Anheuser-Busch a couple of weeks ago. And, you know, they say, “We don’t want to take money out of our business and send it to Wall Street as a deposit on collateral.” And I think when — if they really saw that the net effect of this would be to send a whole lot of money to be held by Wall Street that was otherwise employed in operating businesses, there might be a little less congressional enthusiasm.

9. 希腊债务危机:“我不知道这部电影的结局”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,我们进入第2个问题。

观众:各位早上好。换个话题,查理和沃伦,我是来自德国波恩的诺曼·伦特罗普。首先我要对你们表示非常感谢,然后有一个问题。“坐火车来,“你在股东信中写道,我就是这样在1997年第一次来到奥马哈的。我特意从丹佛坐火车,以体验奥马哈作为一个铁路城市的感觉,我立刻就非常喜欢奥马哈。但火车之旅,我认为有改进空间。所以非常感谢你们把美国铁路的未来纳入你们天才的手中。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:这是我听过的最好的问题之一。(笑声)

观众:哦,这里有个问题。

沃伦·巴菲特:哦,好的。(笑声)

观众:是关于希腊、欧

标题:2010年年度股东大会

第二部分/共六部分

但在那之前,他们收到了一份威尔斯通知,并且他们没有公开它,而事实上,那根本不算什么。所以律师告诉我,如果你认为某件事是重大的,你就需要报告。但根据我对ABACUS交易的了解,如果我收到了与此相关的通知,我不会认为这对一家每年赚取数百亿美元的公司来说是重大事件。查理?

原文

But before, they received a Wells notice and they didn’t publicize it, and, in truth, it was nothing. So lawyers tell me that if you regard it as material, you report it. I don’t think if I’d received something relating to the ABACUS transaction, based on what I know about it, I would have considered it material to a company that was making many, many, many billions of dollars a year. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,我也不会认为它是重大的。如果每家公司都报告每一件可能发生的小事,而他们认为概率微乎其微,那我们只会得到无穷无尽的、令人困惑的报告。必须有一个重要性标准。你也不想给那些对你怀恨在心、提出索赔的人以敲诈的可能。我不是说SEC正在这样做,但是——

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I wouldn’t have regarded it as material, either. If every company reported every little thing that might happen with what they regarded a tiny probability, we’d just have unlimited confusing reports. There has to be some materiality standard. And you don’t want to give blackmail potential to people that are mad at you and make claims. I’m not saying that’s what the SEC was doing, but —

沃伦·巴菲特:不,但这可能发生在很多情况中——(笑声)可能发生在个人身上——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: No, but it could happen with a lot of — (laughter) it could happen with individual —

查理·芒格:是的,这可能会发生在其他人身上。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: It could happen with other people, yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:而且我知道威尔斯通知中,有多大比例最终会对公司产生重大影响。但我的猜测是,有很多通知并不会是重大的。当然,公司越大,那种可能性就越小。然后你的另一个问题是,如果劳埃德不管理高盛,我希望谁来管理?我猜如果劳埃德有个双胞胎兄弟,我肯定会选他。但我从未想过这个问题。我们会考虑谁来管理伯克希尔——(笑声)——但实际上没有理由去考虑这个问题。在我看来,早在1970年,当他们遇到宾州中央铁路问题时,也没有理由去想是不是应该由古斯·利维以外的人来管理——来管理高盛。当博斯基事件发生时,约翰·温伯格正在管理高盛。而且我认为约翰·温伯格是一位出色的高盛管理者。所以我不认为这反映了劳埃德的问题。我认为,正如查理所说——我们对此有强烈的感受。

华尔街上有大量我们不喜欢的事情。但我们不认为它是特指——我们知道它不是特指——高盛的。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: And I know what percentage of Wells notices result in something that’s material to the company. But my guess is that there are plenty of them that wouldn’t be. And of course, the bigger the company, the less likelihood that it would be material. And then your other question about who I would want running, if Lloyd wasn’t running it? I guess if Lloyd had a twin brother, I’d go for him. But I’ve never given that a thought. We think about who would run Berkshire — (laughs) — but there’s really no reason to think about that. There wasn’t any reason to think about, in my view, back in 1970, when they had the Penn Central problem whether somebody other than Gus Levy should be running Penn Central — be running Goldman. And when the event happened in connection with the Boskey thing, John Weinberg was running it then. And I thought that John Weinberg was a terrific manager of Goldman. So I just don’t see this as reflecting on Lloyd. I think, as Charlie — and we’ve got strong feelings.

There’s plenty of stuff goes on Wall Street that we don’t like. But we do not think it’s specific — we know it isn’t specific — to Goldman. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,美国有很多CEO我都希望看到他们下台。(笑声)但劳埃德·布兰克费恩不是其中之一。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, there are plenty of CEOs I’d like to see gone in America. (Laughter) But Lloyd Blankfein is not one of them.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,第3个问题。(笑声)我刚才还担心他要开始点名了。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 3. (Laughter) I was afraid he might start naming names. (Laughter)

11. 驾驶员反馈技术

观众成员:你好。我叫大卫·克莱曼,来自伊利诺伊州芝加哥。这个问题主要想问巴菲特先生和盖茨先生,作为伯克希尔的股东,同时也作为比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会的受托人。与我同龄的美国人死亡的首要原因是机动车碰撞。每年发生超过600万起事故,而你们为其中相当一部分事故提供了保险。世界卫生组织将机动车碰撞列为全球第11大死因。一类新技术正在进入市场。这些技术不仅减少驾驶员分心,还能向驾驶员提供积极反馈,帮助他们意识到自己驾驶得有多好,或者还能做得更好。GEICO或盖茨基金会是否会积极并且引人注目地押注于驾驶员反馈技术,以促进道路专注,拯救生命、自由、财产并降低保险费?我给盖茨先生和巴菲特先生留了一张便条。如果能把这些交给你们,我会很高兴。

原文

11. Driver feedback technology

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello. My name is David Clayman (PH) and I come from Chicago, Illinois. This question is for Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, principally as Berkshire shareholders, but also as Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation trustees. The leading cause of death for Americans my age are motor vehicle crashes. Over 6 million occur each year and you insure a significant number of these crashes. The World Health Organization ranks motor vehicle crashes as the 11th leading cause of death in the world. A new category of technologies are reaching the market. These technologies not only reduce driver distraction but also deliver positive feedback to drivers to help make drivers aware of how well they’re driving or how much better they could be doing. Will GEICO or the Gates Foundation make an aggressive and visible bet on driver feedback technologies to stimulate road focus and save life, liberty, property, and insurance premiums? I have a note here for Mr. Gates and Mr. Buffett. I’d be happy if I could get these to you somehow.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,我想我们明白你的立场了。(笑声)盖茨基金会,我认为,与布隆伯格市长一起,在吸烟问题上有一个相当重要的举措。我想你会发现受到吸烟影响的人比受汽车事故影响的人多得多。每英里驾驶的汽车事故、汽车死亡人数已经减少了。我记得我听到过一个数字是600万——实际上我印象中数字是在3万到4万左右,但多年来已经下降了。你知道,为了让汽车更安全,已经做了很多事情。我不确定手机和黑莓手机是否在其中。(笑声)而且我认为实际上——会有更多的人因汽车事故死亡,因为手机和各种其他设备的发明,否则情况可能会更好。我不知道这个问题会有多严重。但每个人都有兴趣降低死亡率。而GEICO有一个非常活跃的安全计划,测试汽车,做各种事情,通常与其他保险公司合作。

我认为——盖茨基金会在指导其活动方面有相当具体且在我看来明智的准则,他们相信专注,所以他们不会试图解决世界上的每一个问题。但我可以向你保证,保险业以及汽车公司,总体上都在持续努力使汽车更安全。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, I think we know your position. (Laughter) The Gates Foundation, I think, has a fairly major initiative, along with Mayor Bloomberg, in terms of cigarette smoking. And I think you’ll find a whole lot more people have been affected by that than auto accidents. Auto accidents per mile driven, auto deaths, have diminished. I thought I heard a figure of six — I thought the figure was more in the 30,000 to 40,000 range actually, but it’s diminished over the years. You know, there have been a lot of things done to make cars safer. I’m not sure that cell phones and BlackBerries are among them. (Laughter) And I think they actually are — there will be more people die in auto accidents because the cell phone and various other instruments were invented than would otherwise be the case. I don’t know how significant that item will be. But everybody has an interest in bringing down fatalities. And GEICO has a very active safety program, testing cars, doing all kinds of things, working usually in conjunction with other insurance companies.

I do not think that — The Gates Foundation has fairly specific and intelligent, in my view, guidelines as to where they direct their activities, and they believe in focus, so they are not going to try and solve every problem in the world. But I can assure you that the insurance industry, as well as auto companies generally, are continuously working to make cars safer. Charlie?

查理·芒格:我没什么要补充的。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK.

12. 伯克希尔股价未受巴菲特捐赠影响

沃伦·巴菲特:卡罗尔?

原文

12. Berkshire shares not affected by Buffett’s donations

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol?

卡罗尔·卢米斯:这个问题也涉及盖茨基金会,但完全不同。“你的所有者相关业务原则之一提到,你将通过政策和沟通,努力使伯克希尔的股价保持理性。”然而,每年你都向盖茨基金会捐赠大量伯克希尔股票。而且我的理解是,你去世后还会向该基金会捐赠更多。”顺便说一句,我忘了说这是来自奥马哈的迈克尔·麦克劳克林,他接着说:“我们已经看到该基金会定期出售伯克希尔股票,而且它还会出售更多,因为它的目的是向慈善机构捐款,而不是永远持有股票。”“基金会出售股票难道不会对股价造成下行压力吗?因为多达25%的股票可能会被转手?”

原文

CAROL LOOMIS: This question also concerns the Gates Foundation but it’s entirely different. “One of your owner-related business principles says that you will attempt, through your policies and communications, to keep Berkshire’s stock price rational. “Yet every year, you give large amounts of your Berkshire stock to the Gates Foundation. And my understanding is that more will go to the foundation when you die.” By the way, I forgot to say this is from Michael McLaughlin (PH) of Omaha, who continues: “Already, we have seen that foundation regularly sell Berkshire stock, and it will sell more because its purpose is to give money to charities not hold the stock forever. “Won’t the foundation selling create a downward pressure on the stock because as much as 25 percent of it will be turned over?”

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。基本上,我每年七月都会向五个基金会捐款。我目前捐赠的金额,是以5%递减余额计算的,每年大约相当于流通股的1.5%左右。所以,如果他们出售股票,而且他们会这样做——在收到股票后迅速出售以进行慈善捐赠——那么基本上每年会有1.5%的股票被出售。现在,如果你把这与纽约证券交易所的交易量对比,后者平均远远超过流通股数量的100%,那么这根本不算什么不寻常的销售。而且这是一个自由的国家。我的意思是,如果我愿意,我可以出售公司10%的股份。我一生中从未卖出一股,也从未打算卖出一股。而且我去世后可能也不会卖出很多股票。(笑声)如果伯克希尔每年1.5%的流通股就能压低股价,那么股价可能确实应该下跌。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Basically, there’s five foundations I give money to every year, every July. And the amount I would be giving now, it’s a 5 percent declining balance, the amount I would be giving now would amount to about 1 1/2 percent of the shares outstanding annually, something like that. So if they sell, and they will, that stock fairly promptly after receipt in order to make charitable gifts, you basically have 1 1/2 percent of the shares being sold annually. Now, if you contrast that with trading on the New York Stock Exchange, which averages well over 100 percent of the amount of shares outstanding, it’s not anything unusual at all in the way of sales. And it is a free country. I mean, I could sell 10 percent of the company if I wanted to. I’ve never sold a share in my life, and I never plan to sell a share in my life. And I won’t sell a hell of a lot of shares after I die either, probably. (Laughter) If 1.5 percent of the outstanding shares at Berkshire move the price down in a year, it probably deserves to move down. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,我当然认为这种为了慈善而进行的股票分配几乎微不足道,而且实际上可能是一件建设性的事情,比如让伯克希尔进入标准普尔指数等等。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, of course, I regard that degree of stock distribution to aid charity as almost a nonevent, and it may actually have been a constructive event, in terms of getting Berkshire into the Standard and Poor’s indexes and so on.

沃伦·巴菲特:请原谅。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Excuse me.

查理·芒格:我认为你有更重要的事情要担心。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think you’ve got more important things to worry about. (Laughs)

沃伦·巴菲特:如果我百分之百拥有伯克希尔,它肯定不会被纳入标普500指数。集中度一直是个问题。所以,如果通过减持提高了——确实在一定程度上提高了——伯克希尔被纳入标普500指数的机会,那可能约占市值7%左右,大概是这个数字。所以那是非同寻常的,你可以称之为,由于我持股的减少而在一定程度上带来的买入。正如查理所说,我认为如果在过去四年里没有捐出任何股票,我不知道——我完全不知道——股价是会高一点还是低一点。我认为这大致是个各占一半机会的赌注。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: If I’d owned 100 percent of Berkshire, for sure it would not have been in the S&P 500. It was always a problem of concentration. So if by selling down it enhanced — and it did to some degree — enhanced the chances of Berkshire being in the S&P 500, that probably accounted for maybe 7 percent or so of the capitalization, some number like that. So that was extraordinary, you might call it, buying that was brought in, to some extent because of the diminution of my own holdings. As Charlie said, I would say if none of the stock had been given away in the last four years, I don’t know whether — I have no idea — whether the stock would be selling a little higher or a little lower. I think that’s sort of an even money bet.

13. 巴菲特:“我不会逃离美国”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,第4个问题。

原文

13. Buffett: “I would not run from the United States”

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 4.

观众成员:你好,巴菲特先生。你好,芒格先生。我叫弗恩·库申伯里,来自堪萨斯州欧弗兰帕克。您认为美国经济相对于其他国家面临的最大挑战是什么?这对未来十年全球投资有何影响?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett. Hello, Mr. Munger. My name’s Vern Cushenbery. I’m from Overland Park, Kansas. What do you see as the biggest challenge facing the United States economy relative to other countries? And what are the implications of that with regard to investing globally over the next decade?

沃伦·巴菲特:查理?(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie? (Laughter)

查理·芒格:谢谢你把这个简单的问题推给我。(笑声)我认为答案是,总的来说,我们并非通过拥有伟大的全球配置系统而在生活中取得成功的。伯克希尔的态度通常是,寻找那些对我们来说合理的事情,并在一定程度上集中精力。然后让世界经济和经济波动随心所欲地波动。我确实认为我们倾向于某些国家而非其他国家,国家越负责任,我们就越感到放心。你同意吗?

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Thank you for steering that easy problem to me. (Laughter) I think the answer to that is that by and large we haven’t made our way in life by having great global allocations systems. Berkshire’s attitude, generally, is to find things that seem sensible to us and to concentrate, to some extent, in those matters. And then let the world economy and the world’s currency fluctuations fluctuate as they will. I do think we’d prefer some countries to others, and the more responsible the countries seem, the more comfortable we are. Wouldn’t you agree with that?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。但是我们——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But we —

查理·芒格:但除此之外,我们帮不了你太多,因为我们在伯克希尔确实没有全球配置系统,除非沃伦对我保密。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: But beyond that, we can’t help you very much because we really don’t have a global allocation system at Berkshire, unless Warren is keeping it secret from me. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:不是那个。(笑声)我们收购北伯林顿铁路公司并不是为了把它搬到中国、印度或巴西——(笑声)——而且我们热爱这一点。我们热爱北伯林顿铁路公司在美国这个事实。我们面临的最大威胁是某种大规模核、化学或生物攻击。如果你问未来50年内这种情况发生的概率,那是相当高的。一年内,概率非常低。但如果你问,导致过去220年取得令人难以置信的进步(尽管有很多波折)的那些特质,你知道,与历史上任何你想要挑选的两个世纪相比,我们在这两个世纪中经历的人类地位的进步,这个国家是卓越的,它的制度是卓越的。它以前所未有的方式释放了人类的潜力。这里的这群人并不比200年前同样的一群人更聪明,他们也没有更努力地工作。但是,天哪,他们的生活方式确实大不相同。

他们之所以生活得不同,是因为这个制度使得相当普通的人,在一段时间内,能够做出非凡的事情。而这个游戏还没有结束。在我看来,没有任何迹象表明我们已经接近人类所能达到的极限。我们可能甚至不了解自己的潜力,就像1790年的人们不了解他们的潜力一样。我的意思是,他们认为如果有人终于发明了一种农具,让他们每天工作10小时而不是12小时,那就太好了。所以我——没有理由——你知道,我希望世界其他地方也能做得好,我认为他们会做得好。这不是一个零和游戏。如果中国和印度做得好,那并不意味着我们做得更差;这可能意味着我们做得更好。所以,我们不是——他们得到的东西并不是从我们这里夺走的。但如果伯克希尔·哈撒韦被迫以某种方式将其投资限制在美国境内的机会,我会完全满足。我们将拥有充足的机会。

显然,就机会而言,我更愿意拥有整个世界,但这个国家会有充足的机会。我不会逃离美国。好的。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But we —

CHARLIE MUNGER: But beyond that, we can’t help you very much because we really don’t have a global allocation system at Berkshire, unless Warren is keeping it secret from me. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Not that one. (Laughter) We did not buy Burlington Northern with the idea of moving it to China or India or Brazil — (laughter) — and we love that. We love the fact that Burlington Northern is in the United States. The biggest threat we have is some kind of a massive nuclear, chemical, or biological attack of one sort or another. And if you would say what are the probabilities of that over a 50-year period, it’s pretty high. Over a one-year period, it’s very low. But if you talk about whether the qualities that have led to the last 220 years of incredible progress, with a lot of hiccups, but incredible progress, you know, in the status of mankind that we’ve experienced in these two centuries compared to any two centuries you want to pick out in history, this country is remarkable and its system is remarkable. And it does unleash human potential like has never been seen before. This crowd here is not smarter than a similar crowd 200 years ago, and they don’t work harder. But, boy, do they live differently.

And they live differently because this system has enabled fairly ordinary people, over a period of time, to do extraordinary things. And that game isn’t over. There is nothing that says we have come close, in my view, to the limits of what humans can achieve. We probably don’t even know our own potential, any more than the people in 1790 knew their own potential. I mean, they thought it would be great if somebody finally came along with some farm tool that let them work 10 hours a day instead of 12 hours a day. So I — there’s no reason — you know, I hope the rest of the world does well, and I think they will do well. And it is not a zero-sum game. If China and India do well, that does not mean we do worse; it may mean we do better. So we are not — it’s not what they get is taking it away from us. But I would be perfectly content if Berkshire Hathaway were forced in some way to limit its investment to the opportunities available in the United States. We would have plenty of opportunities.

I’d rather have the whole world, obviously, in terms of opportunities, but there will be ample in this country. I would not run from the United States. OK. (Applause)

14. 不急找新的投资主管

沃伦·巴菲特:贝基?

原文

14. No rush to find new investment chief

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky?

贝基·奎克:这个问题与伯克希尔的继任计划有关。它来自斯普鲁斯格罗夫的克雷格·梅里根,他问道:“四名潜在的伯克希尔首席投资官候选人在2008年和2009年的表现如何?”“他们中有人使用杠杆吗?这四人中有没有人现在已被排除在外?”

原文

BECKY QUICK: This is a question that has to do with the Berkshire succession plans. It comes from Craig Merrigan in Sprucegrove who asks, “How did the four potential candidates for Berkshire’s CIO position perform over the course of 2008 and 2009? “Did any of the four employ leverage? And have any of the four now been excluded from consideration?”

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,对此的回答是,在2008年,我去年向你们报告过,他们没有——我想去年我们收到过类似的问题——他们没有脱颖而出。2009年,他们做得相当不错。不是——我想说,这四个人——不是同样的四个人。我想说,他们中没有人,查理,我认为可能没有人使用任何杠杆。你觉得呢?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yes, the answer to that is that, in 2008, I reported to you last year that they didn’t, I think we got a question like that last year, they did not distinguish themselves. 2009, they did pretty darn well. It’s not — I would say that the four — it’s not the same four. I would say that none of them, Charlie, I believe you may use leverage at all. Do you think so?

查理·芒格:嗯,我最熟悉的那个人,在杠杆为零的情况下,实现了略高于200%的回报。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the one with which I’m most familiar made a little over 200 percent using leverage of zero.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,那范围就缩小了。(笑声)潜在的投资人选,这个名单的变化可能比CEO继任人选更大。而且这个问题远没有那么紧迫。如果我今晚去世,伯克希尔会在24小时内有一位新的CEO上任,所有董事都知道是谁,而且他们都对此感到满意。应该有人在24小时内到位。而投资方面,下周不需要做任何事情。我可以去度假,不管投资的事。我们可以——我们不会这么做,或者董事会不会这么做,我不会在那里——但他们可以等一个月,他们可以等两个月。我的意思是,可口可乐不会消失,宝洁不会消失,美国运通也不会消失。没有很大的必要每天做事情。我们也不是每天做事情。

所以他们可以相当从容地,可能是与新CEO一起,决定他们想引进谁,他们想如何补偿他们,人数可能是多少。这根本没有定论。我可以告诉你的是,有一些非常有能力的人,我认为,非常愿意为伯克希尔管理资金,并且会做得很好,而且至少部分董事熟悉他们。这个问题会得到解决的。CEO的问题——这不是一个问题——但关于CEO的问题,你希望现在就有一个答案,并且你希望准备好第二天就实施它,你知道,虽然我刚做了体检。(笑声)结果很好。(笑声)查理?(掌声)我的医生今天不在,所以我会告诉你们,这让他很抓狂,因为我像这样吃,而他找不出任何问题——(笑声)——相信我,他想找出来。(笑声)就这样——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that narrows it down. (Laughter) The potential investment people, that list will be subject to more movement around than probably the CEO succession. And it’s really far less urgent. If I die tonight, there will be a new CEO in place in Berkshire within 24 hours, and all the directors know who it would be, and they’re all comfortable with it. And there should be somebody in place within 24 hours. The investments, they don’t need anything done next week. I can go on vacation on investments. And we could go — we wouldn’t do it, or the directors wouldn’t do it, I won’t be there — but they could wait a month, they could wait two months. I mean, the Coca-Cola isn’t going to go away, Procter & Gamble’s not going to go away, American Express. There’s no great need to be doing things day by day. We don’t do things day by day.

So they can be fairly leisurely in working out, probably in conjunction with a new CEO, who they would like to bring in, how they would like to compensate them, what the number might be. That is not fixed in stone at all. The one thing I can tell you is that there are some very able people who would like very much, I think, to be managing money for Berkshire, and who would do a good job, and who are familiar to at least some of the directors. And that problem would get solved. The CEO problem — which is not a problem — but the CEO question, you want an answer for right now and you want to be prepared to implement it, you know, the next day, although I did just have a physical. (Laughs) Came out fine. (Laughter) Charlie? (Applause) My doctor isn’t here today so I will tell you, it drives him nuts because I eat like I do and he can’t find anything wrong — (laughs) — and he wants to, believe me. (Laughter) And with that —

查理·芒格:嗯,我——(笑声)我不是台上两人中最乐观的那个。而且——(笑声)——然而,我相当乐观地认为,伯克希尔的文化将会持续很长很长时间,并且会大大超越创始人的寿命。我认为它会成功。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well I’m — (Laughter) I am not the most optimistic of the two people up here. And — (laughter) — yet, I’m quite optimistic that the culture of Berkshire will last a long, long time and will outlast, greatly, the life of the founder. I think it’s going to work.

沃伦·巴菲特:我真的认为——我的意思是,我们不应该使用最高级——但我认为我们拥有像任何一家真正大型公司一样强大的文化,一样独特的文化,在管理者、所有权、整体运作方面。这花了很长时间才发展起来,但在一定程度上它变得自我强化。我们热爱它,我想在我离开后他们会热爱它的。(掌声)别鼓掌了。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I really think — I mean, we shouldn’t be getting into superlatives — but I think we have as strong a culture, and as distinctive a culture, in terms of managers, ownership, the whole works, of any really large company in the country. And it’s taken a long time to develop, but it becomes self-reinforcing after a point. And we love it, and I think they’ll love it after I’m gone. (Applause) Don’t clap there. (Laughter)

15. 需要资本的业务:回报良好但不卓越

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,第5个问题。

原文

15. Good, but not brilliant, returns for businesses needing capital

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 5.

观众成员:你好,我是史蒂夫·富尔顿,来自肯塔基州路易斯维尔。再一次,我放弃了肯塔基德比赛马会的包厢座位来向您提问。(笑声)我很感激有这个机会。我的问题集中在,如果允许的话,向资本密集型业务的投资转变以及其对内在价值的相关影响。您在年报中再次指出,对所有者来说最好的业务是那些资本回报率高且所需增量资本很少的业务。我意识到这个决定在一定程度上是由当前运营公司产生的大量现金驱动的,但我希望您将此资本需求与内在价值的定义(即未来提取现金的折现值)进行对比。并且为了让大家都了解,您提到过这些业务在未来几十年内将需要数百亿美元,仅仅考虑时间价值,我想更深入地了解您对此的见解。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, I’m Steve Fulton (PH) from Louisville, Kentucky. Once again, I gave up a box seat to the Kentucky Derby to come ask you a question. (Laughter) And I appreciate that opportunity. My question’s focused on the shift, if you will, to investing in the capital-intensive businesses and the related impact on intrinsic value. You again stated in the annual report that best businesses for owners are those that have high returns on capital and require little incremental capital. I realize this decision is somewhat driven by the substantial amounts of cash that the current operating companies are spinning off, but I would like you to contrast the requirement for this capital against the definition of intrinsic value, which is the discounted value of the cash that’s being taken out. And just for all of us to be aware, you’ve mentioned the fact that you think these businesses will require tens of billions of dollars over the few decades, and just the time value of that, I’d like to understand a little bit more of your insight into that.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。尽管很明显你非常了解情况,而且这是你能提出的最重要的问题之一,我几乎可以说,对伯克希尔而言。我们正在将资金投入——大笔资金——投入到从经济角度看是好的业务中。但它们不如我们在处理较小金额时可能买到的一些业务那么好。如果你以喜诗糖果为例,它大约需要4000万美元的资本投入,而你知道,它的盈利远高于此。现在,如果我们能将其资本翻倍,如果我们能再投入4000万美元并获得与最初4000万美元类似的回报,我的意思是,我们下午就会带着钱去那里。不幸的是,这些优秀的业务并不吸收资本。这也是它们优秀的原因之一。以我们现在的规模,我们赚取营业利润,第一季度大约是22亿美元,或者无论多少,而且我们不分红,我们的工作就是尽可能聪明地将其投放出去。

我们找不到能吸收那么多钱的喜诗糖果。当我们找到时,我们会买入,但它们不会吸收我们将产生的那么多钱。那么问题就是,我们能否聪明地但也许不是卓越地投入这些钱?到目前为止,我们认为答案是肯定的。我们认为进入我们已经拥有的资本密集型业务是有意义的。顺便说一句,到目前为止,这是有意义的。我的意思是,效果相当不错。但它不可能卓越。世界并非如此设计,以至于你可以将数百亿甚至数千亿美元的资金进行再投资并获得巨额回报。这根本不会发生。我们试图尽可能仔细地说明这一点,以便股东理解我们的局限性。现在,你可能会说,“那么,把它分掉不是更好吗?”只要我们能将其转化为,如你提到的,未来现金生成的折现值,那么分掉就不是更好的选择。

如果我们能将其转化为比一美元现值稍多一点的价值,我们会继续寻找方法。根据我们的判断,我们在BNSF上做到了这一点,但计分卡将在10年或20年后揭晓。我们在中美能源上也做到了。我们进入了一个非常资本密集型的业务,到目前为止,在股权复利方面我们做得非常好。但它不可能成为可口可乐那样的基本业务,在那里你几乎或根本不需要很多资本。如果你幸运的话,如果你有一个增长的业务,你可以继续增长业务。喜诗糖果不是一个增长的业务。它是一个很棒的业务,但它不像可口可乐那样能将自己推广到全球。所以我想说,你准确地抓住了要点。我想你对此的理解和我们一样深。我希望在将资金以可观的回报、良好的回报投出去方面,我们不会让你失望。

但是如果任何人期望从伯克希尔的这个基础上获得卓越的回报,你知道,我们不知道怎么做。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Although it’s clear you understand the situation quite well, and it’s — as important a question as you could ask, virtually, I would say, at Berkshire. We are putting money into good — big money — into good businesses from an economic standpoint. But they are not as good as some we could buy when we were dealing with smaller amounts of money. If you take See’s Candy, it has 40 million or so of required capital in the business, and, you know, it earns something well above that. Now, if we could double the capital, if we could put another 40 million in at anything like the returns we receive on the first 40 million, I mean, we’d be down there this afternoon with the money. Unfortunately, the wonderful businesses don’t soak up capital. That’s one of the reasons they’re wonderful. At the size we are, we earn operating earnings, $2.2 billion, or whatever it was in the first quarter, and we don’t pay it out, and our job is to put that out as intelligently as we can.

And we can’t find the See’s Candies that will sop up that kind of money. When we find them, we’ll buy them, but they will not sop up the kind of money we’ll generate. And then the question is, can we put it to work intelligently, if not brilliantly? And so far, we think the answer to that is yes. We think it makes sense to go into the capital-intensive businesses that we have. And incidentally, so far, it has made sense. I mean, it’s worked quite well. But it can’t work brilliantly. The world is not set up so that you can reinvest tens of billions of dollars, and many, many tens over time, and get huge returns. It just doesn’t happen. And we try to spell that out as carefully as we can so that the shareholders will understand our limitations. Now, you could say, “Well, then aren’t you better off paying it out?” We’re not better off paying it out as long as we can translate, as you mentioned, the discounted value of future cash generation.

If we can translate it into a little something more than a dollar of present value, we’ll keep looking for ways to do that. In our judgment, we did that with BNSF, but the scorecard will be written on that in 10 or 20 years. We did it with MidAmerican Energy. We went into a business, very capital intensive, and so far, we’ve done very well, in terms of compounding equity. But it can’t be a Coca-Cola, in terms of a basic business where you really don’t need very much capital, if any, hardly. And you can keep growing the business if you’re lucky, if you’ve got a growing business. See’s is not a growing business. It’s a wonderful business, but it doesn’t translate itself around the world like something like Coca-Cola would. So I would say you’ve got your finger right on the right point. I think you understand it as well as we do. I hope we don’t disappoint you, in terms of putting money out to work at decent returns, good returns.

But if anybody expects brilliant returns from this base in Berkshire, you know, we don’t know how to do it. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,在“不知道”这一点上,我和你一样擅长。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I’m just as good at not knowing as you are. (Laughter)

16. 信贷危机中的贷款与购买股票抉择

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,安德鲁?(笑声)

原文

16. Making loans vs. buying stock in credit crisis

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, Andrew? (Laughter)

安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金:这个问题来自加州圣莫尼卡的股东维克多和刘艾米。他们问:“当您在2009年2月金融危机期间进行投资时,为什么您倾向于债务工具而不是股权?”“例如,为什么您以15%的利息投资3亿美元于哈雷戴维森,而不是在股价为12美元时买入股权?如今,股价是33美元。”

原文

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: This question comes from Victor and Amy Liu (PH) who are shareholders from Santa Monica, California. And they ask, “When you made investments during the financial crisis in February of 2009, why did you lean towards debt instruments rather than equity? “For example, why did you invest $300 million in Harley-Davidson at 15 percent interest instead of buying equity when the shares were at $12? Today, they’re at $33.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我想说,如果我现在写这个问题,我可能会问同样的问题。但我不确定你在2月份是否会问同样的问题。那时,不同的投资工具显然有不同的风险状况。事实是,我不知道哈雷戴维森的股权是值33美元、20美元还是45美元。我对此毫无看法。你知道,我有点喜欢这样一种业务,你的客户会把你的名字纹在他们的胸前或其他地方。(笑声)但要计算其经济价值,你知道。我甚至不确定出去问问那些家伙,我能从他们那里学到多少。(笑声)但我确实知道,或者我认为我知道,而且我认为我是对的:A)哈雷戴维森不会倒闭。并且B)15%的收益率将会看起来非常有吸引力。事实是,我们可能可以出售这些债券,我不知道,可能价格在135左右或类似水平。所以我们可以获得非常可观的资本收益和大量收入。

我知道足够的信息可以借钱给他们;但我不知道足够的信息来买入股权。这种情况经常发生。而且,你知道,我们喜欢购买股权,但我们同样喜欢以10%的收益率购买高盛的优先股。现在,假设高盛,不是给我10%的优先股和认股权证,而是说:“你可以选择12%的优先股,不可赎回”,我可能会选那个。我的意思是,可赎回的——所以所有这些证券都存在权衡。显然,如果我认为我能赚到非常好的钱,就像我们在哈雷戴维森上做的那样,通过一个非常简单的决定,仅仅一个问题:“他们会不会破产?”而不是一个更困难的决定:“摩托车市场是否会大幅萎缩?而且,你知道,利润率是否会受到一些挤压?”以及所有那些。我会选择简单的决定。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would say that if I were writing that question now, I might write the same question. But I’m not so sure you would have written the same question in February. Now, there were different risk profiles, obviously, in investing. And the truth is, I don’t know whether Harley-Davidson equity is worth $33 or $20 or $45. I just have no view on that. You know, I kind of like a business where your customers tattoo your name on their chest or something. But — (laughter) — figuring out the economic value of that, you know. I’m not sure even going out and questioning those guys I’d learn much from them. (Laughter) But I do know, or I thought I knew, and I think I was right, that, A) Harley-Davidson was not going out of business. And that, B) 15 percent was going to look pretty damned attractive. And the truth is, we could probably sell those bonds, I don’t know, probably at 135 or something like that. So we could have a very substantial capital gain, a lot of income.

I knew enough to lend them money; I didn’t know enough to buy the equity. And that’s frequently the case. And, you know, we love buying equities, but we love buying the Goldman preferred at 10 percent. Now, let’s say Goldman, instead of offering me the 10 percent preferred and warrants had said, “You can have a 12 percent preferred, non-callable,” I might have taken that one instead. I mean, the callable — so there’s a tradeoff involved in all these securities. And obviously, if I think I can make very good money, as we did on Harley-Davidson, with a very simple decision, just a question of, “Are they going to go broke or not?” as opposed to a tougher decision, “Is the motorcycle market going to get diminished significantly? And, you know, are the margins going to get squeezed somewhat?” And all of that. I’ll go with a simple decision. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,你一个很好的回答是,你只是没有足够的信息来买入股票,但你确实有足够的信息来买入债券,这是一个非常好的回应。另一方面,毕竟我们是为很多人充当受托人,包括那些永久性受伤的人等等,等等。在某种程度上,我们在买入股票与其他工具相比时,会受到我们积极程度的限制。你把所有这些混合在一起,就得到了我们的投资政策。我认为,总的来说,你提出了一个非常好的问题。我认为很多时候,当你关注一个困境情况并买入债券时,你应该已经买入了股票。所以我认为你正在关注一个有前景的领域。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, of course your one good answer, that you simply didn’t know enough to buy the stock but you did know enough to buy the bond, is a very good response. The other side to that is, after all, we are a fiduciary for a lot of people, including people with permanent injuries and et cetera, et cetera. And to some extent, we are constrained by how aggressively we buy stocks versus something else. And you mix those together, why, you get our investment policy. I think, generally speaking, you raise a very good question. I think very often, when you’re looking at a distress situation and buy the bonds, you should have bought the stock. So I think you’re looking in a promising area.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。本·格雷厄姆在1934年实际上在《证券分析》中就写过,在对高级证券的分析中,低级证券通常表现更好,但持有高级证券可能让你睡得更安稳。而且正如查理指出的,我们在保险业务中有600亿美元的负债,有些情况下会延续50年甚至更久。我们绝不会把所有资金都放在股票上。我的意思是,我们可能持有非常大量的股票,但我们经营这家公司的方式是要它能承受任何事情。几年前,我们对这种理念给我们的定位感觉非常好。我的意思是,我们实际上可以在大多数人瘫痪的时候做事情,我们会继续这样经营下去。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Ben Graham wrote about that in 1934, actually, in “Security Analysis,” that in the analysis of senior securities, the junior securities usually do better, but you may sleep better with the senior securities. And we, as Charlie points out, we have 60 billion of liabilities to people in our insurance operation that, in some cases, extend out for 50 years or more. And we would never have all of our money in stocks. I mean, we might have very significant amounts, but we are running this place so that it can stand anything. And a couple years ago, we felt very good about where that philosophy left us. I mean, we actually could do things at a time when most people were paralyzed, and we’ll keep running it that way.

17. 创建良好的企业文化比改变坏文化更容易

沃伦·巴菲特:第6个区域。

原文

17. Creating a good corporate culture is easier than changing a bad one

WARREN BUFFETT: Area 6.

观众成员:芒格先生和巴菲特先生,感谢让我们来到这里。我最近加入了一个新组织,对我来说,要想在那里取得成功,该组织的文化需要改变。所以我有兴趣听听你们关于如何改变组织文化的想法?而且,如果你正在创建一个新组织,那么你如何确保拥有一个强大而独特的文化?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett, thanks for having us here. I recently joined a new organization and for me to succeed there, the culture of the organization needs to change. So I’m interested in hearing your thoughts about how do you change culture of an organization? And if you’re building a new organization, then how do you make sure you have a strong and unique culture?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我认为围绕一种文化建立一个新的组织比改变一个现有组织的文化要容易得多。这真的很难。我喜欢这个事实,从伯克希尔的角度来看。我的意思是,改变伯克希尔的文化将非常困难。它在我们的所有管理者、所有者中根深蒂固。这个地方的一切实际上都是为了强化一种文化而设计的。任何人进来试图大幅改变它,我认为文化基本上会排斥它。而你描述的问题,如果你想进入,你知道,无论你叫什么名字的组织——我得小心一点——改变文化是很难的。查理和我遇到过几次这种情况。我想说,如果你在这个问题上有任何选择,我宁愿从头开始,围绕它来建立。但那是——我有幸在伯克希尔拥有时间。

我的意思是,这要追溯到1965年,当时那里几乎什么都没有,你知道,除了一些纺织厂,所以我没有什么需要对抗的。随着我们增加公司,它们变得互补,并且它们认同了一些让它们感觉良好的东西,但这花了几十年。而且,你知道,在所罗门,我试图在某种程度上改变文化,就结果而言,我不会给自己打A+。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think it’s a lot easier to build a new organization around a culture than it is to change the culture of an existing organization. It is really tough. And I like that fact, in the sense of Berkshire. I mean, it would be very tough to change the culture of Berkshire. It’s so ingrained in all our managers, our owners. Everything about the place is designed, in effect, to reinforce a culture. And for anybody to come in and try and change it very much, I think the culture would basically reject it. And the problem you describe, if you want to walk into, you know, whatever kind of organization you want to name — I’ve got to be a little careful here — it is tough to change cultures. Charlie and I have bucked up against that a few times. And I would say if you have any choice in the matter, I would much rather start from scratch and build it around it. But that was the — I’ve had the luxury of time with Berkshire.

I mean, it goes back to 1965, and there really wasn’t much of anything there, you know, except some textile miles, so I didn’t have to fight anything. And as we added companies, they became complementary and they bought into something that they felt good about, but it took decades. And, you know, at Salomon, I attempted to change the culture, in terms of some respects, and I would not grade myself A+ in terms of the result. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,我很受宠若惊,竟有一个人说他在一个新地方,除非改变文化否则无法成功,并且他想让我们告诉他如何改变文化。在你所处的位置上,我的失败率是100%。(笑声)并且——

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I’m quite flattered that a man would say that he’s in a new place where he can’t succeed unless he changes the culture and he wants us to tell him how to change the culture. In your position, my failure rate has been 100 percent. (Laughter) And —

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,查理创办了一家律师事务所。回溯到什么时候,1962年,查理,那是什么?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, Charlie started a law firm. Go back to, what, 1962, Charlie, what was it?

查理·芒格:是的。我可以离开,但我无法改变文化。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I can move out but I couldn’t change the culture. (Laughs)

沃伦·巴菲特:我们可以讲一些关于那家老律师事务所的有趣故事,但我们现在继续,卡罗尔。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We can tell some interesting stories from the old law firm, but we’ll go on to Carol now.

18. 阿吉特·贾因无法替代

卡罗尔·卢米斯:这个问题来自纽约市鲁安·坎尼夫公司的乔恩·勃兰特。“您多次强调阿吉特·贾因对伯克希尔和国民 indemnity 再保险业务有多重要。所以我想知道,您预计国民 indemnity 的浮存金在他退休后是会继续增长还是会减少?”当然,我们不认为——

原文

18. Ajit Jain can’t be replaced

CAROL LOOMIS: This question is from Jon Brandt of Ruane, Cunniff in New York City. “You have emphasized many times how important Ajit Jain is to Berkshire and National Indemnities reinsurance operations. So I’m wondering whether you expect National Indemnities’ float to continue to grow or instead to unwind after he retires?” Well, of course we don’t think —

沃伦·巴菲特:不。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: No.

卡罗尔·卢米斯:——阿吉特会退休。“另一种问法是,国民 indemnity 除了阿吉特之外是否还有竞争优势,还是说,其超出账面价值的所有价值都系于阿吉特和他已经承保的交易带来的后续利润?”

原文

CAROL LOOMIS: — Ajit will retire. “Another way of asking that is whether National Indemnity has competitive advantages beyond Ajit, or is all of its value, above book value, tied up in Ajit and the runoff profits from the deals he has already put on the books?”

沃伦·巴菲特:他的业务拥有的竞争优势超越了阿吉特,但这些优势是由阿吉特发展起来的,他将其最大化,并且他知道如何以在我看来比世界上其他任何人都好得多的方式利用它们。但它们不会全部消失。我的意思是,他拥有一支大约30人的骨干队伍,他们接受过培训,你知道,这种培训会让耶稣会士都显得相当自由,在他们允许其成员做的事情方面。阿吉特——你无法想象比阿吉特的业务更严谨的运营了。但阿吉特是无法替代的。另一方面——嗯,我会绝对、明确地陈述——如果阿吉特出了什么事,那对伯克希尔将是一个巨大的损失。但这并不意味着伯克希尔·哈撒韦的再保险业务不会继续成为一个极其特殊的地方,能够做其他人不会做的大额交易,能够以几乎其他任何保险组织都无法做到的方式快速思考和行动。我们在那个部门拥有非常特别的东西,而且我们拥有阿吉特这位最特别的领导者。

至于我们的浮存金,每年我都认为我们的浮存金已经达到顶峰。我从未看到我们还能如何增加。现在已经超过600亿美元。而且我们有一些像Equitas这样的交易是后续业务。每天,在保险业务中,部分浮存金会减少,只是我们增加了额外的金额。就像我说的,在200亿美元的时候,我就准备放弃了,并且认为,你知道,我们已经达到了顶峰。但现在超过了600亿美元。事情在不断发生。在我看来,伯克希尔已经成为世界上首屈一指的保险组织,而且我们拥有——由此带来了很多好处。我不知道,在拥有600多亿浮存金的情况下,我不知道除非我们进行一些非常重大的收购,否则我们如何能显著增加它。我不排除这种可能性,但眼下没有这类计划。但我们不会从这里有机地快速增加伯克希尔的浮存金。这是做不到的。我们可能只能努力保持现状。

但我们可能会突然想到一些办法。我的意思是,三年前谁会知道Equitas会出现?可能会有各种积极的事情发生。但是,当我告诉你阿吉特为伯克希尔增加的价值时,相信我,我只可能低估了它。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: His operation has competitive advantages that go beyond Ajit, but they have been developed by Ajit, and he has maximized them, and he knows how to use them in a way that’s far better, in my view, than anyone else in the world could. But they don’t all go away. I mean, he has a cadre of about 30 people who are schooled in it, you know, in a way that would make the Jesuits look quite liberal, in terms of what they let their membership do. Ajit — you can’t imagine a more disciplined operation than Ajit has. But Ajit cannot be replaced. On the other hand — well, I’ll state that absolutely, categorically — it would be a huge loss to Berkshire if anything happened to Ajit. But it would not mean that the Berkshire Hathaway reinsurance operation would not continue to be an extremely special place that would do large deals that nobody else would do, that could think and act quickly in ways that virtually no other insurance organization can. We’ve got something very special in that unit, and then we’ve got the most special of leaders in Ajit.

As to our float, every year I think our float has peaked. I never see how we can add to it. It’s up to 60 billion-plus now. And we have things like the Equitas deal that are runoffs. Every day, in insurance, some of the float runs off, it’s just that we add additional amounts. And like I say, I was ready to quit, you know, at 20 billion and think, you know, that we’d reached the apex of it. But it’s over 60 billion. Things keep happening. Berkshire has become, in my view, the premiere insurance organization of the world, and we’ve got — a lot of good things come from that. I don’t see how, with 60-odd billion of float, I don’t see how we can increase it significantly unless we would make some very significant acquisition. And I don’t rule that out, but there’s nothing imminent on that. But we will not organically grow the float of Berkshire at a fast clip from here. It can’t be done. And we may fight to stay even.

But we may come up with something out of the blue. I mean, who would have known that Equitas was going to come along three years ago? There are various things that could happen of a positive nature. But when I tell you about the value that Ajit has added to Berkshire, believe me, if anything, I’ve understated it. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,我同意你的看法,我没什么要补充的。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I agree with you, and I’ve got nothing to add.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well. (Laughter)

19. 印度的机遇,但政府瘫痪是障碍

沃伦·巴菲特:这样的话,我们继续第7个问题。开始。

原文

19. Opportunities in India, but government paralysis is a deterrent

WARREN BUFFETT: In that case, we’ll go to number 7. Here we are.

观众成员:早上好,沃伦和查理叔叔。我必须叫您叔叔,因为我的父母来自印度,我们称呼任何比我们年长的人为叔叔或阿姨。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning, Warren and Uncle Charlie. I have to call you Uncle because my parents are from India and we call anybody older than us Uncle or Auntie.

沃伦·巴菲特:你也许得叫我们叔公了。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: You may have to call us great uncle. (Laughter)

萨布丽娜·楚格:我是来自洛杉矶的萨布丽娜·楚格,今年12岁。我妈妈拥有一大堆伯克希尔的股票,显然有一天我会得到它们。(笑声)我的问题是,世界人口的17%是印度人。也就是说世界上每六个人中就有一个是印度人。印度经济正以每年7-8%的速度增长。按照这个速度,它将在2043年超过美国的总GDP。您能告诉我为什么您不在印度投资吗?

原文

SABRINA CHOOG: I’m Sabrina Choog (PH) from Los Angeles and I’m 12 years old. My mom owns a bunch of Berkies, which obviously I’m gonna get one day. (Laughter) My question is, 17 percent of the world is Indian. That’s one of six people in the world. India’s economy has been growing at 7-8 percent per year. At this rate, it will surpass total U.S. GDP in 2043. Can you please tell me why aren’t you investing in India?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这是一个好问题——(掌声)——而且我们在那里有联系,显然。但是,在保险领域,对非印度公司——非印度人拥有的公司——可以做的事情有非常明确的限制。我们看了很多,主要是通过阿吉特。我们考虑了很多在那里开展保险业务的可能性。实际上,就在昨天,我同意明年三月去印度,因为我们的ISCAR业务——(掌声)——在那里做得非常好。但是,我不知道他们认为我还能额外做什么,但无论如何,他们说:“三月来印度吧,看看我们能否大幅扩展业务。”印度将会大幅增长,而ISCAR应该出现在世界上每一个工业国家。我的意思是,我们是工业的基础,我们为世界各地的客户创造了奇迹。我们在印度有一个规模不小的业务。

但ISCAR的管理层希望,如果我们在三月去那里旅行,我们可能会多拿下几个客户。我们并未排除印度,相信我,无论是在直接投资还是可流通证券方面。事实上,浦项制铁,查理比我更了解浦项制铁的情况,他们在印度有宏伟的计划。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it’s a good question — (applause) — and we have connections there, obviously. But it hasn’t — in the insurance field, there have been very distinct limitations on what a nonIndian company — a non-Indian-owned company — can do. We’ve looked a lot, mostly through Ajit. We’ve looked a lot at the possibility of being in the insurance business there. And actually, as of yesterday, I agreed next March to go to India because our ISCAR business — (applause) — is doing very well there. But, I don’t know what they think I can do additionally, but in any event they said, “Come on to India in March and see if we can’t expand it substantially.” India is going to grow dramatically, and ISCAR belongs in every industrial country in the world. I mean, we are very basic to industry, and we’ve done wonders for our customers all over the world. And we have a good-sized operation in India.

But ISCAR management hopes that if we take a trip over there in March, we might land a few more accounts. We do not rule out India, believe me, in looking at either direct investments or marketable securities. In fact, POSCO, Charlie can describe the POSCO situation better than I, but they have big plans for India. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的,印度面临的一个问题是,其政府往往有相当程度的瘫痪,无休止的正当程序,无休止的反对。分区很难,规划许可很难,等等。这导致非常明智的现代新加坡创始人说,中国将比印度增长快得多,因为他们的政府导致的瘫痪较少。所以这些国家在它们提供的机会方面是不同的。但我们当然喜欢印度,我们——有点钦佩导致这种瘫痪的民主制度,但我们仍然不喜欢这种瘫痪。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, the one trouble that India presents is that its governments tend to have a fair amount of paralysis, endless due process, endless objection. Zoning is hard, planning permissions are hard, et cetera. And that has caused the very wise founder of modern Singapore to say that China is going to grow much faster than India, because their government causes less paralysis. So these countries are different in the opportunities they present. But of course we like India, and we — kind of admire the democracy that causes the paralysis, but we still don’t like the paralysis.

沃伦·巴菲特:但这并非注定。你知道,如果你看看40年前的中国,你做梦也想不到会发生什么。所以国家确实互相学习,我的意思是,它们应该这样做。我的意思是,我认为它们从美国学到了很多东西,并加以适应——我不是特指印度,我泛指其他国家。它们并非全盘接受我们的一切。但如果你看到一个像这个国家一样在过去几百年中如此成功的国家,你可能会想到可以借鉴一些好主意。我认为你在世界各地都看到了这一点,也许它们能在某些方面改进我们的做法。所以我不认为目前存在的任何增长障碍都一定是永久性的。印度——我们应该找到很多在这些国家做生意的方式。显然,我的偏好是在像保险这样的领域,我了解它,而且我们在那里有出色的人才。

目前,中国和印度都相当严格地限制我们可以拥有一家公司的多少股份。我真的很讨厌把我们的一些管理人才派去为我们只拥有25%股份的公司工作。我更愿意让他们为我们全资拥有的公司工作。所以这将取决于法律。但印度人民20年后的生活将比现在好得多,就像中国和美国的人民一样。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s not ordained, however. You know, if you’d looked at China 40 years ago, you wouldn’t have dreamt of what would happen. So countries do learn from each other, I mean, and they should. I mean, I think they’ve learned many things from the U.S. that they adapt — I’m not talking about India specifically, I’m talking about other countries generally. They don’t take on everything we have. But if you looked at a country that was as successful as this country has been over a couple hundred years, you might figure that there could be a few good ideas you could steal. And I think that you’re seeing that around the world, and maybe they can improve on us. So I don’t think I would feel that any impediments to growth that existed now are necessarily ones that have to be permanent. Indian — we ought to figure out a lot of ways to do business in those countries. My preference is, obviously, in something like insurance, which I understand, and where we’ve got terrific people.

Both China and India do limit us right now quite significantly in what we can own of a company. And I really hate to take some of our managerial talent and put them to work for something we only own 25 percent of. I’d rather have them working on something we own 100 percent of. So it will depend on the laws. But people in India are going to be living a lot better 20 years from now than they are now, as they are in China, and as they are in the United States.

20. “重大通胀的前景已经增加”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,贝基。

原文

20. “Prospects for significant inflation have increased”

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, Becky.

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自澳大利亚悉尼的乔纳森·马什。他说:“20世纪70年代和80年代的许多股东信讨论了通胀的各个方面及其对投资的潜在破坏性影响。”“2008年的信提到,当前美联储的量化宽松政策可能再次引发通胀,但2009年的信却没有提及这一威胁。”“您目前对美国通胀风险水平有何看法?”

原文

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Jonathan Marsh (PH) in Sydney, Australia. He says, “Many shareholder letters in the 1970s and 1980s discussed various aspects of inflation and its potentially destructive effects on investment. “The 2008 letter mentioned the current Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing could again bring about inflation, yet the 2009 letter made no mention of this threat. “What are your current thoughts on the risk level of higher inflation in the United States?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我可能对此有点偏见,因为我一直非常担心通胀,而且已经有很多通胀了。你知道,查理指出过,自从我1930年出生以来,美元已经贬值了超过90%。但正如他也指出的,我们过得还不错。所以这不一定是世界末日。我认为,重大通胀的前景已经增加了,你知道,不仅在这里,而且在世界各地,由于各国政府要么被迫接受要么选择接受的局面。这些措施本身可能是正确的反应,但我们可能会发现,戒掉药物的过程比解决最初的疾病更困难。而药物,你知道,就是巨额的债务。而且,就像我说的,不仅在这里,其他地方也是如此。而且,我看不出那些财政赤字相对于GDP很高的国家,其货币价值在长期内不出现显著贬值的途径。当然,这可以持续一段时间。

我的意思是,我们经历过战争等各种情况,也许我们会纠正这种情况。但如果我们不这样做,大约一年前我在《纽约时报》上写了一篇专栏文章。我确实认为,如果你要押注通胀是上升还是下降,用你的生命来赌,我会押注上升,而且可能是大幅上升。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I may be a little biased on this because I’ve always worried a lot about inflation, and there’s been a lot of inflation. You know, Charlie’s pointed out, you know, since I was born in 1930, the dollar’s depreciated by well over 90 percent. But as he also points out, we’ve done OK. So it isn’t the end of the world, necessarily. I think that the prospects for significant inflation have increased, you know, with what — not only here, but around the world, with the situation that governments have either been forced into or elected to embrace. And they may well have been the correct responses, but we may find that weaning ourselves from the medicine was harder than solving the original illness. And the medicine, you know, has been massive dosages of debt. And, like I say, not only here, but elsewhere. And I don’t see any way that countries running very high deficits, relative to GDP, don’t have a significant diminution in the value of their currency over time. Now, it could be done for a while.

I mean, we’ve done it through wars and everything else, and maybe we will correct the situation. But if we don’t, I wrote an op-ed piece in The New York Times about a year ago on this. And I do think that if you wanted to bet on higher or lower inflation, bet your life on it, I’d bet on higher, and maybe a lot higher. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,再次,我同意。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, again, I agree. (Laughter)

21. 芒格:麦当劳是比大学更好的教育者

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,第8个问题。

原文

21. Munger: McDonald’s is better educator than universities

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 8.

观众成员:我的名字是卢卡斯·瑞恩斯韦尔,我来自旺阿雷。如果你不知道旺阿雷在哪里,它在新西兰。现在,新西兰时间是凌晨4点15分,所以我可以安全地说我的妻子正在熟睡。我是一个理想主义者。可以做些什么来教育孩子们关于奥马哈圣贤的成功资金管理哲学,并防止我们都看到并经历的2007年和2008年金融混乱再次发生?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Lucas Rineswell (PH) and I’m from Whangerei. And in case you don’t know where Whangarei is, it’s in New Zealand. At the moment, it’s quarter past 4 in the morning in New Zealand, so I’d be safe to say that my wife will be sound asleep. So I’m an idealist. What can be done to educate the children about the sage of Omaha’s philosophy of successful money management, and to prevent another reoccurrence of the financial mayhem that we’ve all seen and experienced in the 2007 and 2008 years?

沃伦·巴菲特:我们将不时地看到你所说的金融混乱。我希望我们能减少它,我希望我们能减少其严重程度,等等。但人们会做疯狂的事情,这与智商无关,有时也与教育无关。事实上,我认为过去30年发生的一些问题,而且不是一小部分,正是由于在顶尖商学院中成为主流传统智慧的东西所导致的。所以,对于时不时地修正人类的疯狂,我并不特别乐观。不过,第一部分正是我们电影中的那种内容。我确实相信,养成好的财务习惯——还有其他习惯,但我这里主要考虑的是财务习惯——在生命早期养成这些习惯非常重要。我的意思是,查理和我可能很幸运,因为我们成长在家庭中,我们潜移默化地学到了很多关于如何处理生活,特别是如何处理财务的课程。不是每个人都有这样的机会。

而安迪·海沃德,三四年前在通过“自由之子”教授美国历史方面做得非常出色,他提出了“秘密百万富翁俱乐部”的想法。如果我们能影响到2%或3%,或者5%,或者无论多少的孩子,给他们提供一些他们可能原本没有的想法,并让他们围绕这些想法养成一些习惯,你知道,这不会改变世界,但可能对他们的生活有益。养成财务习惯非常重要。而且,查理和我都是本·富兰克林的忠实粉丝。他在几百年前就在教授这些习惯。所以我们实际上只是想尝试将本·富兰克林的想法变得有趣,用于儿童故事。我认为这就是你应该做的。我不认为——我认为在小学阶段拥有良好的学习比,坦率地说,在高级学位和研究生院里拥有学习更重要。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We will see financial mayhem, as you put it, from time to time. I hope we reduce it, I hope we reduce the

标题:2010年股东大会

第3/6部分

观众提问: 巴菲特先生,芒格先生。我是来自中国北京的Eric Chang。首先,感谢你们提供了这样一个让我们能够与你们交流的机会,也感谢你们激励年轻人学习。芒格先生曾形容您是一台不可思议的学习机器,擅长学习新领域并拓展能力圈。因此,我想了解的是,您能否让这一点更具体化?最近您对比亚迪进行了投资,这是一家中国公司,生产电池和电动汽车,可以说是一家科技公司。所以,您能否通过这个例子,大致讲讲您是如何分析这个案例、提出哪些问题,从而帮助您做出投资这样一家公司的决定的?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特: 比亚迪的功劳100%归功于查理,所以这个问题我让他来回答。

查理·芒格: 嗯,这是一个有趣的例子,因为如果这个机会早五到十年前出现,伯克希尔是不会投资比亚迪的。这表明我们这些老头还在不断学习,这绝对是至关重要的。如果我们固守原来的方式,伯克希尔的潜力会比现在低。所以——你关注到这个事件是绝对正确的。同样,戴夫·索科尔也帮了忙。我当时不太确定自己能单独说服沃伦做这件事,所以我就诱使戴夫去了中国,我们俩一起帮助推进了学习过程。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 说得好。说得好。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. This is Eric Chang from Beijing, China. First, thanks for the occasion for us to engage with you like this, and also for inspiring young people to learn. Mr. Munger has described you as an incredible learning machine in terms of learning new areas, and expanding your circle of competence. So I would like to understand is if you can make it more concrete, recently you make investment in BYD, a company in China that makes batteries and also electric cars which are, arguably, technology companies. So can you sort of go through that example and see how you sort of like analyzed the case and asked questions that helped you make a decision to invest in such a company? Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie deserves 100 percent of the credit for BYD, so I’m going to let him answer that.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it’s an interesting example because Berkshire would not have made an investment in BYD if the opportunity had come along five or 10 years earlier. And it shows that the old men are continuing to learn, and that’s absolutely essential. Berkshire would have a lower potential than it does if we had stayed the way we were. And — so you are absolutely right in calling attention to this episode. Again, Dave Sokol helped. I wasn’t at all sure I could get Warren to do this all by myself so I inveigled Dave into going over to China, and the two of us were able to help the learning process. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Well put. Well put.

26. 我们绝不会聘请薪酬顾问

沃伦·巴菲特: 贝基?

贝基·奎克: 这个问题来自马克·韦尔斯,涉及伯克希尔的薪酬问题。他问道:“伯克希尔如何为其子公司的CEO制定基于绩效的薪酬?请尽可能具体地说明您最关注的指标,以及这些指标的实现程度如何转化为薪酬。”

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,嗯,我们做的第一件事就是绝不聘请薪酬顾问。(掌声)我们拥有,无论数量是多少,70多家或更多家的企业。它们的经济特征非常不同。试图为这些业务制定某种伯克希尔标准,比如保险业务(它以资本为后盾,但我们可以将这些资本投资于我们本来就会投资的其他东西,因此涉及负资本),或者BNSF或我们的公用事业业务(涉及大量资本),或者介于两者之间的喜诗糖果(涉及很少的资本),这是行不通的。我们还有一些业务好得不得了,就算让一只黑猩猩来管理都能赚钱,而另一些业务有时则非常困难,就算让阿尔弗雷德·P·斯隆再世,我们也很难做好。因此,我们业务的经济特征存在巨大差异。我会试着弄清楚——如果我自己拥有整个业务——考虑到业务的经济特征,什么是雇佣员工并支付薪酬的合理方式。

所以我们有各种各样的计划。我每年花在这上面的时间不超过几个小时。我们的经理们一直和我们在一起,所以他们肯定对这些计划相当满意。而且,你知道,这不是什么高深的科学,但它确实需要——需要具备区分的能力。如果我们有一个人力资源部门,那将是一场灾难。他们会去参加会议,人们会告诉他们各种不同的东西,要把它们放进公式里等等。这只需要一定量的常识。而且,顺便说一句,它还需要与管理层的互动,在这个过程中,我听取他们的意见,他们也听取我的意见,我们基本上能就衡量他们为公司实际增加价值的真正标准达成一致。查理,你怎么看?

查理·芒格: 嗯,我认为美国陆军和通用电气都有集中化的人事政策,这可能对他们最有效,而我们的体系正好相反,我认为这显然对我们最有效。实际上几乎没有其他人完全像我们这样,这让我们非常另类。我喜欢这样,不是吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,我们真的很喜欢这样。当人们同意我们的观点时,我们反而会担心。(笑声)我们付给一些人——我们付给一些人非常高的薪水。我们有些经理人每年能赚数千万美元,也有经理人,当我们业绩不佳时,他们也会跟着受损。但你必须公平待人。即使他们不差钱,每个人都希望被公平对待。所以,你做事的方式背后的理由应该被理解,但在伯克希尔内部根本没有一个统一的标准。我的意思是,如果你经营喜诗糖果,把资本成本因素或类似的什么东西加进去——就像顾问们会告诉你的那样——那是胡说八道。业务中有4000万、4300万还是3700万的资本,根本没什么区别。主要的事情是,在市场地位等等方面,我真正想奖励经理人的是,随着时间的推移,他们能拓宽我们业务与竞争对手之间的护城河。

现在,这变得非常主观,所以我没有完美的办法来衡量。但这始终是我在设计薪酬体系时考虑的核心。到目前为止,就像我说的,我不认为——我记不起来了——你能回忆起有哪个经理因为薪酬问题离开过我们吗,查理?

查理·芒格: 我认为事情竟然如此简单,花费的时间如此之少,而且效果如此之好,这真是太神奇了。有种观点认为总部能做这些奇妙的事情。总部,在一家综合型企业里,往往在业务现场不受欢迎。我们不想在现场被讨厌。我们不想有一个成本高昂、强加于一切的帝国式总部。平均来看,这种模式对我们来说效果非常好。

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,我们不收取任何总部费用。我们会向几家公司收取我们信用背书的费用,但大多数公司会从他们的所有不同运营部门中扣除销售额的几个百分点,或者类似的比例。而这种做法在现场通常会引起反感。而且——

查理·芒格: 确实如此。

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的。所以我们不这么做。

原文

26. Why we will never hire a compensation consultant

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky?

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Mark Wares (PH) and it has to do with Berkshire’s compensation. He says, “How does Berkshire structure the performance based-compensation of the CEOs of its subsidiaries? Please because as specific as you can regarding the metrics on which you focus the most, and how the degree to which those are attained translates into compensation.”

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well, the first thing we do is we never engage a compensation consultant. (Applause) And we have, whatever it may be, 70-plus or whatever number businesses we have. They have very different economic characteristics. To try to set some Berkshire standard to apply to businesses such as insurance, which has capital as a bulwark but which we get to invest in other things we’d invest in anyway, so there’s minus capital involved, to a BNSF or our utility business where there’s tons of capital involved, or in between See’s where there is very little capital involved. We have other businesses that are basically just so damn good that a, you know, a chimpanzee could run them, and we have other business that are so tough at times that, you know, if we had Alfred P. Sloan back, you know, we wouldn’t be able to do very well with them. So there’s enormous differences in the economic characteristics of our business. I try to figure out what — if I owned the whole business — what is a sensible way to employ somebody and compensate them, considering the economic characteristics of the business.

So we have all kinds of different plans. It doesn’t take a couple of hours of my time a year to do it. We have managers who stay with us, so they must be reasonably happy with the plans. And, you know, it is not rocket science, but it does require — it requires the ability to differentiate. If we had a human relations department, it would be a disaster. They would be attending conferences and people would be telling them all these different things to put in equations and so on. It just requires a certain amount of common sense. And it requires, incidentally, an interaction with the managers where, you know, I listen to them, they listen to me, and we sort of agree on what really is the measure of what they’re actually adding to the company. And — what do you — what do you say to that, Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think the U.S. Army and General Electric have centralized personnel policies that probably work best for them, and we have just the opposite system, and I think it clearly works best for us. And practically nobody else is entirely like us, which makes us very peculiar. And I like it that way, don’t you?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we really like it that way. We get worried when people agree with us. (Laughter) We pay people — we pay some very big money. We have managers that have made and will make in the tens of millions annually, and we have managers that, you know, when we suffer, they suffer. But you’ve got to treat people fairly. Even though they don’t need the money, everybody wants to be treated fairly. And so the rationale for how you’re doing it should be understood, but there is no crossBerkshire rationale at all. I mean, if you run See’s Candy, to put a cost of capital factor in or something like that, what the consultant would tell you, it’s nonsense. It isn’t going to make any difference whether there’s 40 million or 43 million or 37 million of capital in the business. The main thing to do is, in terms of market position and all that sort of thing, the real thing I really want to pay managers for is widening the moat that separates our business from our competitors’ businesses over time.

Now, that gets very subjective, so I don’t have any perfect way of doing that. But that is always going through my mind in trying to design compensation systems. So far, like I say, I don’t think — I can’t — can you recall any manager that’s ever left us over compensation, Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think it’s amazing how simple it’s been and how little time it has taken and how well it has worked. There’s this idea that headquarters can do these wonderful things. Headquarters, in a conglomerate kind of a company, is frequently hated in the field. We don’t want to be hated in the field. We don’t want an imperial headquarters with big costs that’s imposed everywhere. And averaged out, it’s worked wonderfully well for us.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we make no headquarters charges. We charge for our credit with a couple of companies, but — most companies are allocating a couple percent of sales, maybe, or whatever it might be, to all their different operations. And usually it’s resented out in the field. And —

CHARLIE MUNGER: Is it ever.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. So we don’t do it.

27. “我们不会为了金钱而交易声誉”

沃伦·巴菲特: 第11个问题。

观众提问: 谢谢。我叫乔·鲍勃·希区柯克。我是加州纳帕谷的一名酿酒师。我想建议下次你和查理在Gorat’s吃牛排时,可以搭配一种新的健康食品——纳帕谷红酒。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 我们刚刚进入了葡萄酒分销业务,你可能知道。(笑)

观众提问: 太好了。

查理·芒格: 沃伦对此无能为力,但我支持你。

观众提问: 好的。(笑声)我会给你寄一瓶。伯克希尔成功的关键之一,是你们允许旗下各公司的经理人在奥马哈的干预最少的情况下自主经营。但是,如果您意识到伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下某家公司存在不道德或非法活动,您会直接并亲自干预吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 当然会。我们必须介入。我们有一条举报热线,我认为这是一个非常好的发明——不是发明,而是《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》体现的一项好政策。而且,你知道,这对我们来说是一个加分项。我有时也会直接收到信件。所以我想听到问题。我希望有人先听说了并已经解决了,但如果其他地方没解决,我想听到问题。我们有一个内部审计职能,这在伯克希尔很重要。任何进来的信息,你知道,如果有人打电话到投诉热线说,“我旁边的人有口臭”,我往往会跳过。但如果任何进来的信息涉及涉嫌不当行为,它就会在伯克希尔被调查。而且确实如此。不时地,会有一些重要的违规行为通过寄给我的信、或热线电话、或可能寄给审计委员会的信件等方式被我们发现。我们鼓励这样做。查理?

查理·芒格: 是的。我们对此的重视程度远高于商业错误,远远超过。

沃伦·巴菲特: 我们大约每两年发出一封信;这是唯一的沟通。我可能应该在某个时候把它的副本放在年度报告中,这样股东们就能看到。但信只有一页半长。它要求经理告诉我,如果当晚他们出了什么事,我认为第二天谁应该负责管理这个地方。这并不意味着我会遵循他们的建议,但我想知道他们的理由以及优缺点。但信的开头基本就是:“听着,我们拥有所有我们需要的钱。”我们想赚更多钱。我们喜欢赚钱。但我们的声誉一点也不多余,我们不会为了金钱而交易声誉。我们希望这个信息能传达到位。这就是为什么我们每年都把所罗门的故事放进电影里。我的意思是,你们——可能你们中有些人现在已经能背诵了,但我认为不断重复这个故事没有坏处。

我们告诉他们的一件事——我们告诉他们这个信息,然后我在这封信里加了一行新内容。我说,如果你做某事的理由,你所能想到的最好的理由,是别人也在做,那这个理由不够好。必须有——除了“别人也在做”之外,必须还有其他理由,否则你就有麻烦了。我告诉他们,“如果有什么事情不确定,给我打电话。如果你觉得它接近红线,给我打电话。”这么说之后,没人给我打电话,因为他们——(笑)——他们知道,仅仅因为他们觉得它接近红线,可能就说明它已经越线了。但我想听到这些事。如果我们能及早听到并迅速采取行动,任何问题都能解决。但如果它被允许在某处放任自流,人们掩盖它——有时确实如此——那么我们就有麻烦了。

将来我们还会遇到更多这样的情况,这是无法避免的,你知道。如果你有26万员工,有些事总是可能发生的。我只希望我们能尽快听到。我希望他们的经理能更快地听到,并在问题传到我们这里之前就采取行动。但我们非常希望保护伯克希尔的声誉。这是正确的事。查理?

查理·芒格: 嗯,这是绝对必要的。平均而言,伯克希尔拥有非常好的声誉,你可以从主流媒体和调查的评级中看出来。这对我们来说绝对珍贵。从某种意义上说,你们大家也是这种文化的一部分。理想不仅仅是在不引起太多法律麻烦的情况下,赚取所有合法能赚的钱。这个理念比这更大。它意味着,我们只庆祝那些被公平赢得并被明智使用的财富。如果这个理念渗透到一个地方的文化中,包括股东,我们认为这对我们非常有帮助。(掌声)

原文

27. “We won’t trade reputation for money”

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 11.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you. My name is Joe Bob Hitchcock. I’m a winemaker from the Napa Valley in California. I would like to suggest that the next time you and Charlie have a steak at Gorat’s that you accompany it with a new health food, a Napa Valley red wine. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: We just went in the wine distribution business, as you may know. (Laughs)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Excellent.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Warren is helpless, but I’m with you.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK. (Laughter) I’ll send you a bottle. One of the keys to the success of Berkshire is your policy to allow the managers of the various Berkshire Hathaway companies to operate with minimal interference from Omaha. But if you became aware of unethical or illegal activities at a Berkshire Hathaway-owned company, would you directly and personally intervene?

WARREN BUFFETT: Sure. We have to jump in. We have a hotline, which I think was a very good invention of — it wasn’t an invention, but a good policy embodied in Sarbanes-Oxley. And, you know, that’s been a plus to us. I get letters directly sometimes. So I want to hear about problems. I hope somebody else has heard about them first and already gotten them solved, but if they don’t get solved someplace else, I want to hear about them. And we have an internal audit function, which is important at Berkshire. And anything that comes in, you know, when somebody calls in on the complaint line and says, “The guy works next to me has bad breath,” I tend to skip over those. But if anything comes in that relates to alleged bad behavior, it’s going to get investigated at Berkshire. And it does. And every now and then, there have been some important transgressions that have come to us via either letters to me, or calls on the hotline, or maybe letters to the audit committee, whatever. We encourage that. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. We care more about that than business mistakes, way more.

WARREN BUFFETT: We have a letter that goes out every roughly two years; it’s the only communication. I probably ought to put a copy of it in the annual report sometime so that the shareholders see it. But it’s a page and a half long. It asks the manager to tell me who, if something happened to them that night, who I should consider putting in charge of the place the next day. Doesn’t mean I’ll follow their advice, but I want to know their reasons and the pluses and minuses. But it starts off basically and it says, “Look, we’ve got all the money we need.” We’d like to make more money. We love making money. But we don’t have a shred more reputation than we need, and we won’t trade reputation for money. And we want that message to get out. It’s the reason we stick that Salomon thing in the movie every year. I mean, you can — probably some of you can recite it by now, but I don’t think it can hurt to keep repeating that story.

And the one thing we tell — we tell them that message, and then I’ve added a new line in this. And I say, if the reason you’re doing something, the best reason you can come up with, is that the other guy is doing it, it’s not good enough. There’s must be — there’s got to be some other reason besides, “The other fellow’s doing it,” or you’re in trouble. And I tell them, “Call me if anything’s questionable. You think it’s close to the line, give me a call.” By saying that, nobody gives me a call because they — (laughs) — they know that the very fact that they think it’s that close to the line probably tells them it’s over the line. But I want to hear about stuff. We can cure any problem if we hear about it soon enough and take action soon enough. But if it’s allowed to fester out someplace and people cover it up — and sometimes they have — then we’ve got a problem.

And we will have more of that in the future, there’s no getting around it, you know. If you have 260,000 people, there can be some things going on. I just hope we hear about them fast. And I hope their managers hear about them even faster and do something before it even gets to us. But we want very much to protect the reputation of Berkshire. It’s the right thing to do. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it is absolutely essential. And Berkshire, averaged out, has a very good reputation, as you can tell by the ratings from major media and surveys. And that is absolutely precious to us. In a sense, you people are part of the culture, too. The ideal is not to just make all the money that can be legally be made without causing too much legal trouble. The idea is bigger than that. It’s that we celebrate wealth only when it’s been fairly won and wisely used. And if that idea pervades the culture of a place, including the shareholders, we think that’s very helpful to us. (Applause)

28. BNSF受益于良好的监管

沃伦·巴菲特: 安德鲁?

安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金: 这个问题与您对北伯林顿铁路公司的投资有关,来自纽约市的乔什·桑布尔斯。他问道:“您在年度信中提到,铁路行业的监管机构需要提供‘关于允许回报率的确定性’,才能进行大规模投资。如果您要帮助监管机构计算‘允许回报率’,您会建议他们如何计算?”

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯,我认为美国地面运输委员会——也许马特·罗斯可以提供更多细节——但我认为他们已经采用了大约10.5%的投资资本回报率,或者与之相近的数字。如果利率或其他因素发生重大变化,你可以论证说,应该做一些调整,也许往一个方向或另一个方向调整。通常,在受监管的公用事业公司的情况下,他们谈论的是股本回报率。各州的情况不同,但有些州可能是11%,有些州可能是12%或类似数字。通常在这个范围内。对于铁路,他们倾向于采用投资资本回报率,其中包括将债务作为调整后的数字。我认为这不是一个疯狂的标准。我的意思是,铁路行业与电力公用事业不同,在电力公用事业中,如果你获得了允许的回报率,你几乎可以确定能赚到它,我的意思是,如果你行为端正的话。而且你的需求可能永远不会有那么大的下降,以至于你会远远低于你的回报率。

铁路行业有更多的下行风险,如果你遇到一场严重的工业衰退,那么你不会有那么多下行保护。但应该有一个数字,我会争辩说,10.5%或任何可能被四大铁路公司在近年达到的投资资本回报率,接近或就在这个数字左右。你希望铁路公司投资远高于折旧的金额,我认为这将是——这当然对我是一种激励,促使我投资改善运输系统。另一方面,如果这个回报率远低于此,那么投入资金就是疯狂的,因为你无法改变那个铁路系统并把它用于其他事情。所以我认为国家和铁路系统有一个非常共同的利益,不是赚取过高的利润或类似的东西,而是在未来10年、20年、30年肯定需要的投资上获得体面的回报。我会同意——如果地面运输委员会说10.5%,或者某个类似的数字,我认为这不是一个疯狂的数字。查理?

查理·芒格: 嗯,是的,铁路作为一个受监管的行业,已经是一个非常成功的系统。如果你停下来想一想,美国的铁路在过去三四十年里基本上已经完全重建了。他们改进了铁轨,改变了隧道的大小,改进了桥梁。普通列车可以比以前长一倍多,重一倍多。你很难想象有哪个行业比美国铁路行业在适应我们其他人的需求方面做得更好。总的来说,这是一个明智的监管加上明智的管理相结合的体系。情况并非总是如此。如果你回到很久以前,管理和监管都不那么明智。但现有的体系对我们所有人都运作良好。

原文

28. BNSF has benefitted from good regulations

WARREN BUFFETT: Andrew?

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: This question relates to your investment in Burlington Northern, and it comes from Josh Sanbules (PH), who I believe is in New York City. And he asks, “You mention in your annual letter that regulators of the railroad industry need to provide, quote, ‘certainty about allowable returns,’ unquote, in order to make huge investments. If you were going to help the regulators calculate, quote, ‘allowable returns,’ how would you suggest they do it?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think the Service Transportation Board — and maybe Matt Rose could help give more details — but I think they’ve adopted something like 10 1/2 percent, or thereabouts, on invested capital. And if you had a major enough change in interest rates or something, you could argue that there should be some adjustment, perhaps, in one direction or another. Usually, in the case of regulated utilities, they talk about return on equity. And you have different amounts in different states, but some states it may be 11 percent, in some states it may be 12 percent or something like that. It’s usually in that range. With the railroads, they’ve gone toward this return on invested capital, which includes debt as an adjusted figure. And I don’t think that’s a crazy, crazy standard. I mean, the railroad, unlike the electric utility, when you get an allowed return in the electric utility you’re almost certain of earning it, I mean, if you behave yourself. And your demand is never going to fall off that much, probably, that you’ll go way below your return.

The railroad’s got more downside in it if you run into a terrific industrial recession, so you’re not as protected on the downside. But there should be some figure, and I would argue that the 10 1/2 percent, or whatever it may be on invested capital, that’s been achieved by the four big railroads in recent years, something close to that or right around that figure. And you want the railroads investing a whole lot more than depreciation, and I would think that would be — it’s certainly an inducement to me to invest money in improving the transportation system. And on the other hand, if that return were far lower than that, it would be crazy to put money, because you can’t change that railroad system and do something else with it. So I think the country and the railroad systems have a very common interest in not earning exorbitant profits or anything like that, but getting a decent return on what is sure to be much needed investment over the next 10, 20, 30 years. And I’d go along with — if the Service Transportation Board says 10 1/2 percent, or some number like that, I think that’s not a crazy number. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, yeah, the railroads have been a hugely successful system, in terms of a regulated business. If you stop to think about it, the railroads of America have been essentially totally rebuilt in the last 30 or 40 years. They’ve improved the tracks, they’ve changed the size of the tunnels, they’ve improved the bridges. The average train can be more than twice as long and twice as heavy. And you can hardly imagine a business that’s done a better job in adapting to the needs of the rest of us than the American railroad industry. And that’s by and large been a system of wise regulation accompanied by wise management. And that was not always the case. If you go back a long time, neither the management nor the regulation was all that wise. But the existing system has worked very well for all of us.

29. “波动性”收益作为竞争优势

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的,第12个问题。

观众提问: 你好,我叫阿什什·特卡利。我来自印度新德里。首先,我想感谢美国运通的凯莉·布鲁斯和卡罗尔,感谢他们为促成这次活动提供的帮助。我的问题是关于通用再保险和再保险业务的。由于保险业务使用复杂的模型,伯克希尔如何更有信心保险业务模型不会像华尔街的模型那样使您面临重大风险?另外,如果不是机密的话,是否存在风险集中?也就是说,哪些少数事件可能导致保险业务遭受重大损失?

沃伦·巴菲特: 我不确定是否完全理解了你的问题,但我们确实面临地震带来的重大风险。在智利地震中——我不知道第一季度会有多少损失。当你读到我们的10-Q报告时,里面会有一个数字。但我们为瑞士再保险的20%提供再保险。我们将承担他们该次损失的20%。我们在类似事件中还有其他各种风险敞口。我们已将我们最好的估计包含在我之前展示的那些数字中。我们现在在地震或飓风(就频率和严重程度而言,这是两个最大的自然灾害)方面的峰值风险,可能比几年前下降了不少,这并不是因为风险偏好降低。只是我们觉得那些地区的费率没有那么有吸引力。但是,如果我们认为费率有吸引力,我们非常愿意承担一组风险,即使发生接近最坏情况的事件,你知道,我们可能会损失50亿美元或类似规模。我们在卡特里娜飓风中损失了超过30亿美元。我们在9/11事件中损失了超过20亿美元,实际上我确信远不止这个数。

将来还会有类似的事情发生。但是,就规模而言,没有任何东西会让我们感到哪怕一丝一毫的不适。查理,我不知道我是否完全回答了他的问题,但你——

查理·芒格: 嗯,相当接近了。我想说,我们的做法和其他大多数人的主要区别在于,我们有意识地寻求一种运营方式,这种方式会让我们在个别年份偶尔出现大的亏损,甚至总体大的亏损。而其他所有人都在努力避免这种情况。我们只是希望足够富有,使得单一年份的大幅亏损只是一个“小插曲”。这种愿意承受年度业绩波动的态度,是一种竞争优势。很大的优势,你不觉得吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 这是一个巨大的优势。这是一个巨大的优势。而且这是别人无法模仿的。我的意思是,他们知道我们做了什么,他们只是不想这么做,或者他们在财务资源上无法做到。所以,我会说这非常接近伯克希尔一个永久且巨大的优势。我不——忘掉——你不应该忘记它,但忘掉人类苦难等等。仅仅看卡特里娜飓风的财务后果,你知道,当我们在这件事上损失30亿时,第二天我的感觉和前一天在财务上没有任何不同。我的意思是,这根本没什么区别,因为我们从事的就是这个游戏。只要我们随着时间的推移在保费方面做出正确的决定,只要我们永远不让自己暴露在真正会动摇我们资本结构或类似情况的损失面前,你知道,这就是一个我们拥有巨大竞争优势的游戏。而且这个优势每年都在扩大。

所以,你知道,风险——我们从事的行业——在保险业,我们从事的是接手别人想要平滑收益的愿望,而作为交换,我们获得我们认为随时间推移更大、更不稳定的收益。我们喜欢这个业务。卡罗尔?哦,你说吧,查理。

查理·芒格: 我想说的是,沃伦在保险业的地位与许多其他人不同。在伯克希尔遭受重大亏损的一年之后,他可以对着镜子说:“你的股东仍然爱你。”(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 没错。

查理·芒格: 其他人没有这个地位。

沃伦·巴菲特: 查理和我认识一个来自奥马哈的家伙,四五十年前,他是美国最富有的人之一,名叫霍华德·阿曼森。霍华德对拥有他接触到的每样东西的100%所有权有一种执念。所以当被问及原因时,他说:“我喜欢对着镜子说,‘我所有的股东都爱我。’”(笑声)我还没那么极端,但我喜欢对着镜子说:“我足够多的股东爱我。”(笑声)

原文

29. “Lumpy” earnings as competitive advantage

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 12.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, my name is Ashish Texali (PH). I am from New Delhi, India. First of all, I would like to thank Kelly Bruce (PH) and Carol from American Express to the help they’ve extended to make this event possible. The question regarding General Re and reinsurance business. As the insurance business uses complex models, how is Berkshire more comfortable that insurance business models are not exposing you to significant risks like the models did for Wall Street? Also, if it is not confidential, is there concentration of risk? That is, what are those few events which can cause significant loss for insurance businesses?

WARREN BUFFETT: I’m not sure I got all of that, but we run significant risks from earthquakes. We had, in the Chilean quake — I don’t know how much would have been in the first quarter. When you read our 10-Q there will be a number in there. But we insure 20 percent of Swiss Re. We will take 20 percent of their loss from that. We have various other exposures in something like that. We included our best estimate in those figures I put up earlier. Our peak risks now, in terms of earthquakes or hurricanes — which are the two biggest natural catastrophes, in terms of frequency and severity — are probably down quite considerably from a few years ago, not because of any diminished appetite for risk. But we just haven’t felt that the rates were that attractive in those areas. But if we thought the rates were attractive, we’re perfectly willing to take on a group of risks where, if something very close to worst case happened, you know, we would lose $5 billion or something like that. We lost 3 billion-plus in Katrina. We lost well over 2 billion, I think quite a bit more than that actually, on 9/11.

There will be things come along like that. Nothing that ever remotely comes close to making us uncomfortable, though, in terms of the level. I don’t know whether I got his full question there or not, Charlie, but you —

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, pretty close. I would say that the main difference between our practice and that of most other people is that we are deliberately seeking a method of operation which will give us occasional big losses in a single year, big overall losses. And everybody else is trying to avoid that. And we just want to be rich enough so a big loss in a single year is a blip. And that’s a competitive advantage, that willingness to endure fluctuating annual results. Big advantage, wouldn’t you say?

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s a huge advantage. It’s a huge advantage. And it’s one that no one else is going to pick up on. I mean, they know what we do, they just don’t want to do it, or they’re unable to do it, in terms of financial resources. So, I would say that comes very close to a permanent and substantial advantage at Berkshire. I don’t — forget about — you shouldn’t forget about it, but forget about the human suffering and all that. Just the financial consequences of a Katrina, you know, when we lose 3 billion in that, I don’t feel any different the next day than I felt the day before, financially. I mean, it just doesn’t make any difference, because we are in that particular game. And as long as we make the right decisions over time, in terms of the premiums we get, and as long as we never expose ourselves to a loss that would really shake up our capital structure or anything, you know, that is a game in which we have a huge competitive edge. And it gets wider every year.

So, you know, risk — we are in the business — in insurance, we are in the business of taking the other guys’ desire to smooth their earnings, and, in exchange, get what we think are larger, lumpy earnings over time. We like the business. Carol? Oh, go ahead, Charlie.

CHARLIE MUNGER: I was going to say Warren has a different position than a lot of other people in the insurance business. After a year in which Berkshire has a big loss, he can look into his shaving mirror and say, “Your shareholder still loves you.” (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: That’s right.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Other people are not in that position.

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie and I knew a guy from Omaha who, 40 or 50 years ago, was one of the richest guys in the United States, named Howard Ahmanson. And Howard had a fetish about owning 100 percent of everything that he came in contact with. And so he said, when asked why, he said, “I like to look in the mirror and say, ‘All my shareholders love me.’” (Laughter) And I’m not quite that extreme, but I like to look in the mirror and say, “Enough of my shareholders love me.” (Laughter)

30. 用衍生品“赌博”

沃伦·巴菲特: 卡罗尔。

卡罗尔·卢米斯: 这个问题是关于衍生品的。“衍生品在我们的经济中发挥了什么有用的功能?没有它们,我们很多年也过得很好。如果它们没有有用的用途,并且事实上已经证明它们可以对经济造成相当大的损害,为什么它们没有被定为非法,尤其是那些‘裸’衍生品?这是有先例的。‘我相信,做空自己并不拥有或设法借到的股票是违法的。’”

沃伦·巴菲特: 查理——他对此比我更激动,所以让他来回答。

查理·芒格: 嗯,我认为衍生品的实用性一直被高估了。如果我们完全没有衍生品,包括在交易所交易的谷物买卖合约,我们仍然会有大量的燕麦和小麦。我的意思是,我认为让人们能够通过使用衍生品市场和商品来对冲他们的农业风险稍微方便一些。但检验标准不是“衍生品有任何好处吗?”问题是,衍生品带来的净收益与不利因素相比是否有用?或者说,没有它我们会过得更好吗?我个人的观点是,如果我们回到只有商品、金属、货币的衍生品交易,并且在负责任的规则下安全进行,而所有其他衍生品合约从地球上消失,那世界会是一个更好的地方。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 我们举一个当前的例子。北伯林顿多年来一直在对冲他们大量使用的柴油燃料。同时,他们的许多运输合同中也包含燃料调整条款。对于经营北伯林顿非常出色的马特·罗斯,我基本上会说:“你看。如果是我经营这个地方,我不会费心去对冲它们,”因为如果你对冲它——如果你对冲它一百万年,你知道,你通常会被摩擦成本所耗损,除非你比市场在柴油燃料方面更聪明。如果你真的比市场在柴油燃料方面更聪明,那我们就进入投机柴油燃料的业务了。我的意思是,如果我们真的有优势,你知道,为什么还要费心去运营火车呢?让我们直接投机柴油燃料算了。但我也说,你知道,他们——如果你有一个组织,有人负责这项活动,它就会发生。

另一方面,马特·罗斯和他的管理团队在经营北伯林顿方面做得非常出色。如果他们觉得更舒服,或者发现这在任何方面(比如定价合同或其他)有用,那么对冲一下,我也没问题。我的意思是,这是他的公司,他可以决定最好的经营方式。我会让他对长期业绩负责。而且,你知道,我会用一种方式,别人会用另一种方式。我不认为——我不会谴责任何经营铁路公司的人对冲柴油燃料,也不会谴责任何像我们经营中美能源那样经营能源公司的人,以某种方式对冲能源成本。但我确实认为,如果我们能在屏幕上放一张演示稿,请放第4张。我认为在1935年就说得非常好了。

事实上,凯恩斯《通论》的第8章——第12章,抱歉——凯恩斯《通论》的第12章,在我看来,很可能查理也这么认为,是对资本市场运作方式、人们真实运作方式的最好描述。它是规范性的,也是描述性的。每个人都应该读第12章。它有点——开头几页有点慢。但凯恩斯——我要读一下,因为我不认为查理手头有。第一部分对人们来说非常熟悉。我的意思是,这段引文被广泛使用。但其中的每一个字,对我来说,都切中要害。“投机者可能无害,不过是企业稳定发展之流上的泡沫。但情况变得严重时,企业成了投机漩涡上的泡沫。”如果你想,可以把“投机”改成“赌博”。“当一个国家的资本发展变成了赌场活动的副产品时,这项工作很可能会做得一团糟。”

这是引文中著名的部分。凯恩斯继续说道:“华尔街作为一个机构,其应有的社会目的是将新投资引导到根据未来收益最有利可图的渠道,它取得的成功程度,不能声称是自由放任资本主义的杰出胜利之一——这并不奇怪,如果我认为华尔街最聪明的大脑实际上被导向了另一个目标是正确的。”这是写于1935年。我认为此后没有写出过比这更好的文章,来说明政府、公民应该如何看待华尔街及其所做和未做的事。它始终混杂着赌场操作和非常重要的社会操作。当衍生品变得流行起来,学术界100%支持它们。他们更多地教授如何给期权定价,而不是如何给企业估值。我亲眼目睹了这一点,这让我发疯。但在1982年,国会正在考虑,实际上,以一种大规模公开的方式向公众推广一种衍生品合约。那就是标准普尔500指数合约。这改变了整个衍生品游戏。

从那时起,基本上,华尔街只是说:“来吧,每个人都可以投机指数。不是任何真实公司,只是一个指数。你可以在早上10点买入,10点01分卖出,你通过这样做为这个美好的社会做贡献。”我给丁格尔议员写了一封信,我们会把展品5放出来。我只摘录了我那里写的一些话。那是他们在芝加哥推出标准普尔500指数交易前一个月,4月份。他们是在1982年4月推出的;之前在堪萨斯城有一点。我写了四页纸的东西,我只挑出了一些。但我认为,在一定程度上,我当时预测的结果已经成真了。然后它变得复杂起来,等等,因为华尔街的人们不断想出新的、更新颖的方式让人们赌博。正如我所说,学术界一路欢呼,并被聘请为各种交易所的顾问,告诉他们自己在社会目的方面是多么伟大。

我认为——它在上面,供你阅读。我很乐意——据说整封信曾一度在《财富》杂志上重印过,卡罗尔。是吗——?

查理·芒格: 顺便说一句,如果我没记错的话,这是反对这个被一致赞誉的、与证券相关的更好的赌博新世界的唯一一封信。沃伦写了这封信——

沃伦·巴菲特: 这是一封——

查理·芒格: ——这么多年前,这是唯一的信——

沃伦·巴菲特: 顺便说一句——

查理·芒格: 他基本上说这个想法是疯狂的。它弊大于利。当时和现在一样,人们没有太注意他。

沃伦·巴菲特: 我敢说,这个房间里很少有人知道——你们都知道,如果你买入一只股票,你必须持有很长时间才能获得特殊的资本利得待遇。如果你在11点买入标准普尔500指数合约,并在11点01分卖出获利,其中60%被当作长期资本利得征税,40%被当作短期资本利得征税。所以,如果你在芝加哥用标准普尔500指数衍生品(它实际上就是衍生品)赌博,你得到的税收待遇实际上比你在某种证券上投资四五个月然后因故卖出要好。这要归功于一个相当小的群体的游说力量,他们从这个特定活动中获利颇丰。查理,你能想到任何理由,为什么持有一件东西30秒就能获得60%的长期利得待遇吗?(笑)

查理·芒格: 嗯,这当然是疯狂的。既不公平也不明智。但是,如果一个小群体拥有大量金钱和影响力,他们非常在乎某件事,而我们其他人漠不关心,那么,他们在我们的立法机构面前往往会赢。事情就是这样。我一直喜欢俾斯麦的名言:你不应该看两样东西的制作过程:香肠和法律。(笑声)

原文

30. “Gambling” with derivatives

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol.

CAROL LOOMIS: This question is about derivatives. “What useful function do derivatives serve in our economy? We got along quite well without them for many years. If they serve no useful purpose, and in fact, have demonstrated that they can do considerable damage to the economy, why are they not made illegal, especially the naked ones? There is precedent for that. “I believe that short selling of stocks that one does not own or has managed to borrow is illegal.”

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie has — he can get worked up more on this than I can, so I’m going to let him answer that. (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think the usefulness of derivatives has always been overrated. If we didn’t have any derivatives at all, including contracts to buy and sell grain that were traded on exchanges, we’d still have plenty of oats and wheat. I mean, I think it is slightly more convenient for people to be able to hedge their risks of farming by using derivative markets and commodities. And the test is not, “Is there any benefit in derivatives?” The question is, is the net benefit versus disadvantage from derivatives useful? Or would we be better off without it? My own view is that, if we went back to having nothing but derivative trading in commodities, metals, currencies, safely conducted under responsible rules, and all other derivatives contracts vanished from the earth, it would be a better place. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: We’ll take a current example. Burlington Northern has hedged diesel fuel, which they use a lot of, over the years. And then they also have fuel adjustment clauses in a lot of their contracts for transportation. With Matt Rose, who does a wonderful job of running Burlington, I basically say, “Look at. If I were running the place, I wouldn’t bother to hedge them,” because if you hedge it — if you hedge it for a million years, you know, you’re going to be out the frictional costs, probably, of doing it, unless you’re smarter than the market generally on diesel fuel. And if you’re smarter than the market on diesel fuel generally, we’ll go into the business of speculating on diesel fuel. I mean, if we’ve really got an edge, you know, why bother to run the trains? Let’s just speculate diesel fuel. But I also say, you know, they’ve got — and if you have an organization where you have somebody in charge of that activity, it’s going to take place.

On the other hand, Matt Rose has done a fabulous job, as well as his management team, in running Burlington Northern. If they are more comfortable, or they find it useful in any way, in terms of pricing contracts, or anything, to hedge it, that’s fine with me, too. I mean, it’s his company, he can figure out the best way of running it. I’ll hold him responsible for how it does over time. And, you know, I would do it one way and somebody else would do it another way. I don’t think that’s — I would not condemn anybody that’s running a railroad for hedging diesel fuel, nor would I condemn anybody that runs an energy company, like we do at MidAmerican, for hedging energy costs in certain ways. But I do think, if we could put up a presentation, number 4 on the screen, please. I think it was said very well in 1935.

In fact, chapter 8 of Keynes’s General — chapter 12, I’m sorry — chapter 12 of Keynes’s “General Theory” is, by far, in my view, probably Charlie’s too, the best description of the way capital markets function, the real way people operate. It’s prescriptive, it’s descriptive. Everybody should read chapter 12. It’s a little — it starts a little slow in the first few pages. But Keynes — I’m going to read this because I don’t think Charlie has it in front of him. The first part of it is very familiar to people. I mean, this quote has been used a lot. But every word in this, to me, is right on the money. “Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation.” You can change that to “gambling” if you want to. “When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.”

That’s the famous part of the quote. Keynes went on to say, “The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism - which is not surprising, if I am right in thinking that the best brains of Wall Street have been in fact directed towards a different object.” That was written in 1935. I don’t think there’s been anything better written about how government, how citizens, should look at Wall Street and what it does and it doesn’t. It’s always had this mixture of a casino operation and a very socially important operation. And when derivatives became popular, and academia was behind them 100 percent. They were teaching more about how to value an option than they were about how to value a business. And I witnessed that and it drove me crazy. But in 1982, Congress was considering, really, the expansion of a derivative contract to the general public in a huge, publicized way. It was the S&P 500 contract. That changed the whole derivatives game.

At that point, basically, Wall Street just said, “Come on in, and everybody can speculate in an index. Not any real company, just an index. And you can buy it at 10 o’clock in the morning and sell it at 10:01, and you’re contributing to this wonderful society by doing it.” And I wrote a letter to Congressman Dingle, and we’ll put up exhibit 5. I just excerpted a few of the statements I made there. This was one month before they put in trading in the S&P 500, April. They put it in April, 1982, in Chicago; did a little in Kansas City first. And I went through four pages of things and I just pulled out a few things. But I think that, to some extent, what I forecasted then has turned out to be the case. And then it got squared and all of that, as both the people in Wall Street kept dreaming up new and new ways for people to gamble. And as I say, academia was applauding all along the way and getting hired as consultants to various exchanges to tell them how wonderful they were, in terms of their social purpose.

I think that — well, it’s up there for you to read. I’d be glad — the whole letter was reprinted, I believe, in Fortune at one time, Carol. Was it—?

CHARLIE MUNGER: By the way, if I remember right, this was like the only letter in opposition to this uniformly acclaimed new world of better gambling in things related to securities. Warren wrote the letter —

WARREN BUFFETT: And it’s a —

CHARLIE MUNGER: — all those years ago, and it was the only letter —

WARREN BUFFETT: Incidentally —

CHARLIE MUNGER: He basically said the idea’s insane. It will do more harm than good. Then, as now, people didn’t pay that much attention to him.

WARREN BUFFETT: And I’ll venture that very few people in this room know — you all know that if you buy a stock, you have to hold it for a very long period of time to get a special capital gains treatment on it. If you buy an S&P 500 contract at 11 o’clock and sell it at 11:01 and have a profit, it’s taxed 60 percent as a long-term capital gain, and 40 percent as short-term capital gain. So you really get better tax treatment if you’re gambling on an S&P 500 derivative, which is what it is, in Chicago, than you do if you invest for four or five months in some security and then have to sell it for some reason. It’s a tribute to the lobbying power of a rather small group that has done very well off this particular activity. Charlie, can you think of any reason why it’s 60 percent long-term gain if you hold something for 30 seconds? (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, of course it’s crazy. It’s neither fair nor sensible. But if a small group with a lot of money and influence cares a great deal about something and the rest of us are indifferent, why, they tend to win before our legislative bodies. That’s just the way it is. I always liked Bismarck’s remark that you shouldn’t watch two things: sausage making and legislation making. (Laughter)

31. 巴菲特在对冲基金赌注中落后

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的,说完这些充满希望的话——(笑声)——我们准备休息吃午饭。在休息吃午饭之前,两年前我与一个名为Protégé Partners的团体打了一个慈善赌注,赌的是他们挑选的基金中的基金(对冲基金)的表现与标准普尔500指数基金的表现。我们的赌注为期十年,无论哪一方输,钱都会——实际上是双方的钱都会捐给赢家的慈善机构。西海岸有一家有趣的公司监督他们所谓的这些长期赌注。所以如果我们把展品6放出来,你们可以看到目前我落后了。我们有展品了吗?是的。我们去吃午饭吧。好的。(笑声)

原文

31. Buffett is losing his bet against hedge funds

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, with those hopeful words — (laughter) — we’re going to break for lunch. Before we break for lunch, I made a charitable wager with a group, Protégé Partners, two years ago about the behavior of funds of funds that they would select, hedge funds, and the S&P index fund. The duration of our wager is ten years, and whichever one loses, the money goes — well the money from both goes to the winner’s charity, is what it amounts to. Interesting firm out on the West Coast that supervises what they call these long bets. So if we’ll put up exhibit 6, you can see at this point I’m behind. And have we gotten exhibits? Yeah. Let’s go to lunch. OK. (Laughter)

下午场

1. 大胆发言,但需负责任的发声

沃伦·巴菲特: 所以我认为我们进行到第13个问题,在另一个房间。13号麦克风有人吗?

观众提问: 是的,有。

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的。

观众提问: 您好,巴菲特先生,芒格先生。我是一位来自纽约的股东。有人可能会争辩说,导致大泡沫的一个主要原因是缺乏健康和公开的辩论。所有的观点和资金都站在交易的一边。我最近在读克里斯汀·理查德的新书《信心游戏》时想到了这一点,这本书是关于比尔·阿克曼与曾经最大的债券保险商MBIA的斗争。这个故事也让我想起了David Einhorn,以及他对联合资本和雷曼兄弟提出的质疑。我们现在知道他们100%是正确的,但在他们最初发声的时候,他们遭到了公司的攻击,媒体的嘲讽,被那些公司的会计师和评级机构忽视,并且也许最令人担忧的是,他们因为敢于公开自己的看空分析而受到了美国证券交易委员会的调查。我可以告诉你,看到他们的遭遇,这对任何其他敢于发声、提出类似问题的人都是一个真正的威慑。所以我很好奇您的想法,卖空者发声对我们的市场健康吗?

总的来说,应该做些什么来鼓励更多样化的意见,以便我们能够避免未来的泡沫?谢谢。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,只要人们愿意为自己发表的言论负责,我认为无论是唱多还是唱空的人发声都没有错。我是说,显然有——举一个极端的例子。如果镇上有两家银行,我拥有其中一家,而且我有点心术不正,我可能会出去雇50个人在另一家银行门口排队,不久之后我可能就没有竞争对手了。所以,你可以做多或者做空两方面的事情,我认为这些做法肯定是不道德的,在很多情况下应该是非法的。但任何时候你攻击传统智慧,你都会遇到很多反对,因为你威胁到了人们的立场。30年前,当我们谈论有效市场理论时,它绝对是必行的——全国几乎所有主要学校的金融系,你要么宣誓效忠它,要么你得不到晋升。你知道,人们不喜欢那样。

任何机构,当受到外部威胁时,都会攻击威胁本身和威胁者。但这在两边都存在。我对卖空没有意见,我对负责任地阐明你做空的原因也没有意见,就像我对做多一样。卖空方面有一些非常糟糕的做法,做多方面也有一些非常糟糕的做法,比如人们试图传播不实信息。但多年来,做多方面这样做的人可能比卖空方面要多得多。查理?

查理·芒格: 是的,我认为在某种程度上你批评错了人。在很多情况下,允许糟糕会计的会计师才应该被追究责任。他们在美国受到的批评很少,这是一个错误。

原文

Afternoon Session

1. Speak out, but speak responsibly

WARREN BUFFETT: And I think therefore we go to 13, which is in a separate room. And is there anybody at the microphone in 13?

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes, there is.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. This is a shareholder from New York. One could argue that a major contributor to the great bubble was that there wasn’t a healthy and open debate. That all the opinion and all of the money was on one side of the trade. And I was thinking about this recently as I read Christine Richard’s new book, “Confidence Game,” about Bill Ackman and his battle with what was once the largest bond insurer, MBIA. The story also reminded me of David Einhorn and the questions he raised about Allied Capital and Lehman Brothers. We now know that they were 100 percent correct, but at the time that they first spoke up they were attacked by the companies, pilloried by the media, ignored by the accountants of those firms and the rating agencies, and perhaps most alarmingly were investigated by the SEC for daring to go public with their bearish analyses. And I can tell you that watching what happened to them, it’s a real deterrent to anyone else speaking up and raising similar questions. So I’d be curious for your thoughts on this, and is having short sellers speak out healthy for our markets?

And in general what should be done to encourage a greater diversity of opinions so that we can avoid future bubbles? Thank you. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I don’t see anything wrong with people who are positive or negative speaking out, as long as they’re willing to be held responsible for the kind of statements they make. I mean, there are — obviously — Well, take the extreme example. If there were two banks in town, and I owned one of them and I was of kind of a devious type of mind, I might go out and hire 50 people to stand in line in front of the other bank, and I would probably not have a competitor before long. So you can do things on either side, the long side or the short side, that I would regard as certainly unethical and in many cases should be illegal. But anytime you attack the conventional wisdom, you’re going to meet with a lot of opposition because you’re threatening people’s positions. When we would talk about the efficient market theory 30 years ago when it was absolutely de rigueur that — and virtually every finance department in the country, major schools, you either had to swear allegiance to it or you were not going to be promoted. You know, people don’t like that.

And any institution, when they get a threat from the outside, they will attack both the threat and the threatener. But that exists on both sides. I have no problem with short selling, and I have no problem with speaking out responsibly about your reasons for doing so, any more than I have on the long side. There have been some very bad practices on the short side, and there have been some very bad practices on the long side, in terms of people trying to literally spread things that are untrue. But that has probably been more on the long side over the years than on the short side, by some margin. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I think to some extent you’re criticizing the wrong people. In many cases, the accountants that allowed the lousy accounting are the ones that ought to be held in the dock. And they get very little criticism in America and that’s a mistake.

2. 子公司间为何没有协同效应

沃伦·巴菲特: 贝基?(掌声)

贝基·奎克: 这个问题来自本·索,他住在加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的大温哥华地区。这是问巴菲特先生或芒格先生的。他想知道伯克希尔的协同效应,具体来说:“Dairy Queen门店销售百事可乐产品,并且不接受美国运通卡,只接受万事达卡或维萨卡,这合理吗?”(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 全球各地——差不多有6000家各种类型的Dairy Queen门店。有些现在被称为Grill & Chill,等等,但大约有6000家,公司直营的有70家。所以几乎99%是特许经营的,在Dairy Queen,我们不控制特许经营商的做法。大多数特许经营商——上次我查过——但大多数特许经营商卖可口可乐,那些开明的人——(笑声)——但这完全是他们自己的生意。他们可以——他们可以——他们可以卖可口可乐产品或百事可乐。似乎其他一些特许经营业务在这方面比Dairy Queen有更多的控制权。但如果你考虑一下,Dairy Queen的历史比麦当劳、温蒂汉堡、汉堡王、肯德基都早,所有这些。它可以追溯到30年代,很多与特许经营商的协议,包括区域经营商的协议,都是在餐巾纸背面或类似的东西上完成的。

所以,在某种程度上,我们比其他人对特许经营商的控制要少,尤其是在某些——国家的某些地区。但我们会——继续要求喝可口可乐,也许你能让他们看到光明。协同效应,任何协同效应,伯克希尔的任何协同效应基本上都是在运营层面产生的。我们不会告诉我们的公司要互相做生意。我们希望他们互相做生意,并且,你知道,我们希望子公司A的每一方都有充分的理由让子公司B与他们做生意。但伯克希尔的核心思想是,我们的经理人对他们的业务负责,如果他们要为他们的业务负责,那意味着我们不应该告诉他们该做什么,除非在非常有限的情况下。查理?

查理·芒格: 嗯,你准确地描述了现状。有趣的是我们真的很喜欢这样。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 这省事多了。(笑)

查理·芒格: 是的。

沃伦·巴菲特: 而且我认为,实际上,这有一些好处。有时候,如果人们是自己决定要一起工作,那会比别人告诉他们要一起工作做得更好。

查理·芒格: 还不止于此。如果我们在子公司里,沃伦和我也喜欢这样。这点毫无疑问。

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,如果不是这样,我们可能会离开。(笑)

原文

2. Why there’s no synergy among subsidiaries

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky? (Applause)

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Ben Soh (PH) who lives in the metro Vancouver area in British Columbia, Canada. This is for either Mr. Buffett or Mr. Munger. He wants to know about synergies at Berkshire, specifically, “Does it make sense that the Dairy Queen stores here sell PepsiCo products and would not expect — accept — American Express, only Mastercard or Visa? (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: There are — around the world, there are pretty close to 6,000 Dairy Queen outlets of one sort or another. And some are called Grill and Chill now, different things, but roughly 6,000, and company-operated are 70 of those. So almost 99 percent are franchised, and at Dairy Queen we do not control what the franchisees do. Most of the franchisees — last time I checked sometime back — but most of the franchisees serve Coke, the enlightened ones — (laughter) — but it is entirely their business. They can — they can — they can serve Coca-Cola products or Pepsi. It seems some of the other franchise operations seem to have more control over that than Dairy Queen. But if you think about it, Dairy Queen goes back before McDonald’s, before Wendy’s, before Burger King, before Kentucky Fried, all of those. It goes way back into the ’30s, and a lot of the agreements with franchisees were territorial operators were done on the back of a napkin, or something of the sort.

So to some extent we have less control over what franchisees do, particular in certain — a few parts of the country — than other people. But we’ll — keep asking for Coke, and maybe you can cause them to see the light. The synergies, any synergies, any synergies at Berkshire come about at the operational level pretty much. We do not tell our companies to do business with each other. We hope they do do business with each other, and, you know, and we hope that each side of a subsidiary A offers good reasons for subsidiary B to do business with them. But the whole idea at Berkshire is that our managers are responsible for their businesses, and if they’re going to be responsible for their businesses it means we shouldn’t tell them what to do, except in very limited ways. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, you’ve accurately described the way it is. What’s interesting about it is we really like it that way. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s a lot less work. (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes.

WARREN BUFFETT: And I think, actually, that there’s some merit. Sometimes people work better together if it’s their decision to work together than if you tell them to work together.

CHARLIE MUNGER: It goes beyond that. Warren and I would like it that way if we were in the subsidiaries. There’s no doubt about that.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we’d probably leave if it wasn’t that way. (Laughs)

3. 像“你拥有这家公司一样”行事

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的。1号区域。

观众提问: 尊敬的巴菲特先生,尊敬的芒格先生,我叫史蒂文·罗曼。我是奥地利维也纳大学机械工程专业的学生。如果有一天我想申请成为伯克希尔旗下公司的经理,你们特别看重哪些品质?我需要做什么才能成为你们的接班人?(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 大概得先干掉我。(笑声)我们子公司的经理人都是自己招聘员工。我需要做的关于经理人的决策真的非常非常少。就像我之前提到的,他们会给我寄一封信,告知如果自己出了什么事,他们对我应该由谁接替的看法。但我不做任何关于谁被GEICO、伯灵顿或中美能源等公司雇用的决定。我的意思是,如果他们需要CFO,他们就去雇一个CFO;如果他们需要人管理工厂,他们自己去雇。他们对自己的运营负责,偶尔我们会遇到死亡,偶尔——非常偶尔,我甚至想不起来有一例——辞职。那时我才需要决定谁应该负责运营。但我不认为在45年里我有超过10到12次这样的决定。所以我并不是一个很好的职业介绍所。我们在总部大约有21个人,几个月前我招了一个非常棒的人。

但这能让我应付四五年了。查理?

查理·芒格: 是的,没有迹象表明我们会特别擅长这个。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的。我本来不打算提这个的。(笑声)但我想说:如果你——对我来说有趣的是,当你发现某个出色的人时,哇,他们会脱颖而出。我的意思是,那些以正确的方式思考公司、加倍努力工作的人等等。在这个世界上,你没有那么多竞争对手。所以,就通常在组织内晋升而言,如果你开始像自己拥有这家公司一样思考,并像自己拥有这家公司一样工作,很快你可能就会经营一些东西,你会惊讶于真正的竞争其实有多小。

原文

3. Act as if “you were an owner of the place”

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Area 1.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Dear Mr. Buffett, dear Mr. Munger, my name is Steven Roman (PH). I’m a student of engineering maschinenbau at the University of Vienna in Austria. If I one day want to apply as a manager with one of the Berkshire companies, what qualities are you especially looking for? And what do I have to do to become your successor? (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Probably shoot me. (Laughter) The managers of our subsidiaries hire their own people. The number of decisions I have to make about managers are really, really few. As I mentioned earlier, they do send me a letter that if something happens to them, gives me their ideas about who should succeed them. But I make no decisions about who gets hired at GEICO, or Burlington, or Mid-American or anything of the sort. I mean, if they need a CFO they go out and hire a CFO, or if they need somebody to run a plant they go out and hire them themselves. They are responsible for their operations, and occasionally we have a death, we have an occasional — very occasional, I can’t even hardly think of one — resignation. And at that point I have to make a decision about who should be put in charge of the operation. But I don’t think I’ve had more than 10 or 12 of those in 45 years. So I’m not a very good employment agency. We have 21 people, I think it is, at headquarters, and I made a terrific hire here a few months ago.

But that’ll take care of me for four or five years. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, there’s no indication we’d be particularly good at it, either. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. I wasn’t going to mention that. (Laughter) But I would say this: if you want — what is interesting to me is that when you find somebody outstanding, boy, do they jump out. I mean, somebody that is thinking about the place the right way, is working extra hard, whatever it may be. There aren’t — you don’t have that much competition in this world. So, in terms of generally advancing within organizations, I think you’d be surprised at how little competition you really have if you start thinking like you would if you were an owner of the place, and working like you would if you were an owner of the place, and pretty soon you may be running something.

4. 留存收益、现值与股息

沃伦·巴菲特: 安德鲁?

安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金: 这个问题来自以色列特拉维夫的托默·马隆。他显然是一位长期股东,因为他引用了您1984年的董事长信。他写道:“您之前曾表示,一家公司应该只在其‘每留存一美元,至少为所有者创造一美元的市场价值’时留存收益。‘您还指出,如果这种情况不再适用于伯克希尔,以五年滚动平均值衡量,那么‘我们将分配所有我们认为无法有效使用的非限制性收益。’‘然而,在2005年1月3日至2009年12月31日的五年期间,A类股报告的平均每股年收益为5930美元,而同期每股市场价格的年平均变化仅为2420美元。’‘因此,您是否在考虑分配股息或回购股票?我想我知道答案,但我认为我们得问问。’”(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯,他确实知道答案,但我们会详细说明。我确实写过这个,不仅是在1984年,而且持续地写在伯克希尔年度报告的后面,我在那里列出了我们的经济原则。坦率地说,我第一次写的时候,想法并不成熟。在2009年的年度报告中,部分是因为去年有人问了这个问题,我实际重写了那一节。我指出,即使我在1984年写它的时候,我们在之前的许多年也通不过这个测试,那些年份里,股市通常在一段时间内经历了显著的下跌。从我们的报告中可以看出,现在我们留在业务中的每一美元,以现值计算,都产生了超过1.30美元的市场价值。我们通过了留存收益证明其价值的测试。

但我最初那样措辞,任何时候股市在五年期内大幅下跌,因为我们在五年前以某个价格持有可口可乐或任何影响我们资产价值的因素,即使我们在那五年里在资本配置方面做得很出色,我们仍然可能看起来很糟糕。同样,如果股市大幅上涨,我们即使做了蠢事也可能看起来不错。所以,如果你看看2009年年度报告的后面,我觉得可能是第11条,或者——我不确定。但请阅读经济原则。你会看到我不得不承认我最初措辞中的错误。但我认为,就我本意而言,它在智力上仍然是诚实的。你知道,我在投票赞成之前投了反对票,就像约翰·克里在2004年说的那样。(笑)我认为它确实符合一美元的留存收益产生超过一美元市场价值的测试。我们会继续根据我们是否通过这个测试来衡量自己。

如果我们不——如果保留一美元不能产生超过一美元的现值,我的意思不是每天或每周,但随着时间的推移,我们应该想出其他办法。查理?

查理·芒格: 嗯,我喜欢那些翻阅一长串文件,找出错误并让我面对它的人,尤其是当这是你的错误时。

沃伦·巴菲特: 让我面对它。(笑声)

查理·芒格: 是的,是的。

沃伦·巴菲特: 真是宽容啊。(笑声)我当初应该让他来措辞。实际上,

标题:2010年年度会议

第四部分/第六部分

原文

Now, when you get into look-through earnings or sometimes when we talk about the earnings per share and the investments per share, some of that I don’t repeat every year because we try to get — run at, maybe, 12,000 words or something like that in the annual report. I really think if you extend it too much — I’ll say this, nobody’s told me it was too short, yet — (laughs) — including my editor, who is here today. And every other year I may do that breakdown between operating earnings and the — but that takes 1,000 words or so to explain it to people. The whole report is guided, as it has been ever since I really started taking it seriously in the mid ’70s, is guided by the idea that I’m — actually, I’m writing it to my two sisters who are here. And I have my audience in my mind — is two very intelligent, interested people but who are not around the place, been gone for a year, and they’re very capable of understanding anything but they’re not necessarily familiar with all the lingo. If I get too esoteric on it, so I should explain that.

现在,当你谈到透视盈余,或者有时我们谈论每股收益和每股投资时,其中有些内容我不会每年重复,因为我们努力把年报控制在大概12,000字左右。我确实认为,如果篇幅拉得太长——我可以这么说,还没人跟我说过它太短——(笑声)——包括我的编辑,她今天也在场。每隔一年,我可能会做一下经营利润和其他项目的细分——但这需要大约1,000字来解释。整份报告的指导原则,自从70年代中期我真正开始认真对待它以来一直如此,就是基于这样一个想法:实际上,我是写给在场的两位姐姐的。我心目中的读者是两位非常聪明、有兴趣的人,但她们不在公司里,已经离开一年了,她们有能力理解任何事,但未必熟悉所有行话。如果我说得太深奥,我就应该解释清楚。

原文

And I really want them to understand how I’m thinking about the business, and by implication, how I think they should think about it, and to answer the questions that I think would be in their mind. And they’ve got most of their net worth in it, so they’re going to read to the end. And I really haven’t changed that framework in my mind for how I’ve written it. I start mentally off writing, “Dear Doris and Bertie,” and then I just cross them off and put, “To the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.” But that’s the way it’s done. Charlie?

我真的希望她们理解我对生意的看法,并由此理解我认为她们应该如何思考,同时回答我猜想她们心中会有的问题。她们把自己的大部分净资产都投在了这里,所以一定会读到结尾。我写作时,这个框架在我脑海中从未改变过。我会先在脑海里写下“亲爱的Doris和Bertie”,然后把她们划掉,改成“致伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东”。这事就是这么办的。查理?

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, but the details can change as the facts change. The undistributed earnings of corporations in which we hold shares, but do not control, used to be way more important than they are now. It’s perfectly natural that the emphasis would shift.

查理·芒格:是的,但细节会随着事实变化而变化。我们持股但不控股的公司中,那些未分配的利润过去比现在重要得多。重点发生转移是完全自然的。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, the undistributed earnings now, without me looking at it very carefully, you know, are probably — they’re not more than, probably, 15 percent of our reported earnings or something like that. They used to be a much higher percentage. And they’re still important. But I don’t think they’re — I think the people that understand that Coca-Cola and American Express aren’t paying out all their earnings, and it’s not a big enough number that I would want to spend a lot of the report explaining it.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,现在的未分配利润,我不仔细看的话,可能——大概不超过我们报告利润的15%左右。以前这个比例要高得多。它们仍然重要,但我不认为它们——我觉得,那些理解可口可乐和美国运通没有支付全部利润的股东,而且这个数字也不是大到值得我在报告中花大量篇幅去解释。

9. 芒格支持罗斯个人退休账户

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 4.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Joe Hudson (PH), a shareholder from Culver, Indiana. I doubt either of you have any money in Roth IRAs, but what are your thought on the opportunity this year for anyone to convert IRAs to Roth IRAs, thus having all future growth on Berkshire or other investments 100 percent tax free? Is the government making a big mistake here, and should people be concerned about the deal changing down the road?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ll take this one, because I have an IRA that I am going to convert to a Roth IRA. So there’s your answer. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I still don’t understand it, but —

CHARLIE MUNGER: You don’t have to. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. He’s always telling me that. (Laughter) I assume - if Charlie said it, it must be true.

沃伦·巴菲特:第四个问题。

股东:我叫Joe Hudson,来自印第安纳州卡尔弗的一名股东。我怀疑你们俩谁都没有罗斯个人退休账户里的钱,但你们对今年任何人都有机会将传统IRA转换为罗斯IRA,从而使伯克希尔或其他投资的未来增长100%免税,有什么看法?政府在这里是不是犯了一个大错,人们是否应该担心这个政策日后会改变?

查理·芒格:我来回答这个问题,因为我有一个IRA(个人退休账户),正准备把它转换成罗斯IRA。这就是你的答案。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我还是不明白,但是——

查理·芒格:你不用明白。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:好吧。他总是这么跟我说。(笑声)我想——如果查理说了,那肯定是真的。

10. 报纸在与互联网的竞争中节节败退

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s go to Andrew. (Laughter)

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: This question I’m actually very self-interested in. It comes from Anton Ossip (at) Alexander Forbes from Johannesburg, and (he writes), “Last year you said you were down on the newspaper industry. “Given your life-long interest in newspaper companies and your stake in the Washington Post Company and others, has your view changed in the past year with the introduction of the iPad and other e-reading technologies? “Do you think we will see a contraction in the value of — in the value retained by — media houses versus what will be passed on to distributors of the media?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you could probably answer it better than I can. My relatively uninformed opinion — because I’m not that up on the technology — but I just have a feeling that when the money — has basically — the money to run good newspapers has come from advertising, you know, three-quarters of the money or thereabouts — the papers become less useful to advertisers. I mean, they were the only game in town for a long, long time. They are not the only game in town. And what a difference that makes if you’re selling something. So, when the Philadelphia Inquirer, I — Stan Lipsey is here — I called Stan up and I said, “Stan, this is probably like an old fire horse or something, but let’s think about it anyway a little bit.” And it was sold yesterday at a bankruptcy sale, although I think that’s pending confirmation. But, you know, it is very tempting, if you’ve still got fairly substantial circulation - The Philadelphia Inquirer and they’ve got the Daily News there, too. But the math is really tough.

I mean, the distribution costs, the printing costs, everything, and maybe all this changes that in some way that you would understand better than I would. But since I don’t understand it, I have to stay with — and there are plenty of things I don’t understand — and I cannot make an affirmative decision on newspaper ownership. I just got the — the ABC puts out Fast Facts, this big yellow publication — I just got it a couple days ago and I can’t resist looking through there. And I flip the pages and look at circulation of all kinds of papers. Actually, in Buffalo, we were down less than a great many papers, even though, you know, our population demographics are very tough. We were down less than Rochester, I might mention, which is owned by Gannett. But you look at San Francisco Chronicle, you know, down 20-odd percent. Dallas — These are communities that are thriving, and it blows your mind how fast people are dropping it. It’s not just older — it’s not just that younger people aren’t picking it up. I mean, the world has really changed, in terms of the essential nature of newspapers.

There’s nothing that looked — back when Charlie and I would talk about them in 1970 or ‘65, there was probably nothing that looked more bulletproof than a daily newspaper where the competition had melted away. But it’s a form of distributing information and entertainment that has lost its immediacy in many cases. It’s certainly — it is not the essential place to get — think about how stock market quotations were, you know, 30 or 35 years ago. You looked in the paper to see what stocks had done. You looked in the paper to see how sports games had turned out. So its primacy has withered away, and the advertisers weren’t there because they love the publisher of the newspaper. They were there because it was a microphone to talk to everybody in town, and they had to talk to everybody in town. And so you get this chicken and egg thing that the newspaper becomes less valuable as the advertisers float away, and the advertisers float away as the subscribers diminish. And I don’t see a good answer to it, but Charlie, what do you have to say?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the independent newspapers, due to the accidents of history, as they became dominant in their individual towns, for decades had impregnable economic strength. And by and large they behaved better because they were so strong. And they were called the “Fourth Estate.” They were really a branch of the government, they helped keep government honest. And if you take this state in which we’re located, The World-Herald has been a very constructive force, net, over a long period of time. As those dominant franchises have weakened and weakened, it’s not good for the country. I think we’re losing something that we have no substitute for. And I think it’s very sad and I don’t have the faintest idea what to do about it.

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie and I love newspapers. I think The World-Herald hit a 300,000 circulation peak on Sunday at one time. I don’t think they averaged that for the six-month period, but I seem to remember that, I could be wrong. And the figures — 100,000 off that or something of the sort, and the state has gained population, the city’s gained population. I think it’s as vital to me as ever, but it clearly — it has changed for the populous as a whole. And, you know, when I look at the Philadelphia Inquirer and I forget what it was, 350,000 or something like that of circulation, and, you know, I’m not worried about Philadelphia going away. But when I look at the figures being down — I don’t know, I forget what it was now — 30 or 40,000, you know, in a year, it doesn’t work very well as that goes along, because the advertiser just does not need you the same way as they needed you 10 or 15 years ago. So your ability to price evaporates in them.

It used to be — Charlie and I met Lord Thompson in 1970 or so, and he owns the paper — he owned the paper — in Council Bluffs, right across the river. And he was a jovial fellow, he was very happy to see us. And we said to him, “Lord Thomson,” we said, “We noticed you own the paper in Council Bluffs. Have you ever been there?” He said, “I wouldn’t dream of it.” (Laughter) And then I said, “Well, Lord Thomson,” I said, “You seem to increase the price of your paper every year and your poor advertisers” — I mean the advertising price. And I said, “What can they do about it?” He says, “Nothing.” And then I said to him, “Well, in that case, how do you decide how much to increase prices, since it’s totally at your discretion?” And he said — I think Charlie will remember these words — he says, “I tell my U.S. managers to price to make 40 percent pre-tax.

Above that, I feel I may be gouging.” (Laughter) Those days are gone. (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes, and the politicians are not behaving better as the newspapers are weakening. We’re going to miss the newspaper power.

WARREN BUFFETT: I agree with that. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特:我们请安德鲁来提问吧。(笑声)

安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金:这个问题我其实很关心。它来自约翰内斯堡Alexander Forbes公司的Anton Ossip,他写道:“去年您说您对报业不看好。鉴于您对报业公司终生的兴趣,以及您在华盛顿邮报公司和其他公司的持股,在过去一年里,随着iPad和其他电子阅读技术的推出,您的看法有所改变吗?”“您是否认为,媒体公司保留的价值相对于将转移给媒体分销商的价值会出现萎缩?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,你可能比我回答得更好。我相对信息不足的看法——因为我对技术不太了解——但我有一种感觉,当资金——基本上,经营优质报纸的资金来自广告,你知道,大约四分之三左右的资金——时,报纸对广告主的用处就降低了。我的意思是,在很长很长一段时间里,他们是镇上唯一的游戏。他们不再是镇上唯一的游戏了。如果你在卖东西,这会产生多大的不同啊。所以,当《费城问询报》——Stan Lipsey在这里——我打电话给Stan说:“Stan,这大概就像一匹老救火马一样,但我们还是稍微考虑一下吧。”它昨天在破产拍卖中被卖掉了,尽管我认为那还有待确认。但是,你知道,如果你仍然拥有相当可观的发行量——《费城问询报》,他们还有《每日新闻》——那还是很有诱惑力的。但账算起来确实很难。

我的意思是,发行成本、印刷成本,所有的东西,也许所有这些都会以某种方式改变,对此你比我更了解。但既然我不了解,我就得坚持——有很多事情我不了解——我无法对报纸所有权做出肯定的决定。我刚刚拿到了——美国广播公司(ABC)出版的《Fast Facts》,这本大大的黄色刊物——我几天前刚拿到,忍不住翻了翻。我翻看各种报纸的发行量。实际上,在布法罗,我们的降幅比很多报纸都小,尽管我们的人口结构非常不利。我可以提一下,我们比罗切斯特的降幅小,而罗切斯特的报纸是甘尼特公司旗下的。但你看《旧金山纪事报》,下降了20多个百分点。达拉斯——这些都是繁荣的社区,人们放弃报纸的速度快得令人难以置信。这不只是老年人——不只是年轻人不读了。我的意思是,就报纸的本质而言,世界真的变了。

没有什么看起来——回到1970年或1965年,当查理和我谈论报纸时,可能没有什么比一家竞争已经消失的日报看起来更坚不可摧的了。但它是一种分发信息和娱乐的形式,在许多情况下已经失去了即时性。它肯定不是获取信息的主要渠道——想想30或35年前的股票行情吧。你看报纸来了解股票的表现。你看报纸来了解体育比赛的结果。所以它的首要地位已经削弱了,广告主在那里并不是因为他们喜欢报纸的出版商。他们在那里的原因是,它是一个向镇上每个人说话的麦克风,他们必须和镇上每个人说话。于是就出现了这个“鸡生蛋、蛋生鸡”的问题:随着广告主流失,报纸变得不那么有价值;而随着订阅者减少,广告主也流失了。我看不到好的解决办法,但查理,你有什么要说的吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,独立报纸,由于历史的偶然性,当它们在自己的城镇中占据主导地位时,几十年来拥有坚不可摧的经济实力。总的来说,它们因为强大而表现得更好。它们被称为“第四等级”。它们实际上是政府的一个分支,帮助保持政府的诚实。如果你看看我们所在的这个州,《世界先驱报》在很长一段时间内,总体上一直是一支非常有建设性的力量。随着那些主导性特许经营权不断地削弱,这对国家不利。我认为我们正在失去一些无法替代的东西。我认为这非常可悲,而且我完全不知道该怎么办。

沃伦·巴菲特:查理和我都热爱报纸。我认为《世界先驱报》的周日发行量一度达到30万份的峰值。我不认为他们在六个月的平均期里能达到那个数字,但我好像记得是这样,我可能记错了。数据——大概下降了10万份左右,而州的人口在增长,城市的人口也在增长。我认为它对我来说仍然像以往一样至关重要,但显然——对于整个大众来说,情况已经改变了。而且,你知道,当我看着《费城问询报》——我忘了它的发行量是多少了,大概35万份左右——你知道,我并不担心费城会消失。但是当我看到数字下降——我不知道,我忘了现在是多少——一年内下降3万或4万份时,随着时间推移,情况就不太妙了,因为广告主不再像10年或15年前那样需要你了。所以你的定价能力在他们那里消失了。

过去——我和查理在1970年左右见过汤姆森勋爵,他在康瑟尔布拉夫斯拥有报纸——他拥有那份报纸——就在河对岸。他是个快活的人,见到我们非常高兴。我们对他说:“汤姆森勋爵,我们注意到您在康瑟尔布拉夫斯拥有一家报纸。您去过那里吗?”他说:“我想都没想过。”(笑声)然后我说:“嗯,汤姆森勋爵,”我说,“您似乎每年都在提高报纸的价格,而您可怜的广告主”——我指的是广告价格。我说:“他们能怎么办呢?”他说:“什么都做不了。”然后我问他:“那么,在这种情况下,您如何决定涨价多少呢,因为完全由您自己决定?”他说——我想查理会记得这句话——他说:“我告诉我的美国经理们,定价要使税前利润率达到40%。超过了这个数,我觉得我可能就是在敲竹杠了。”(笑声)那些日子已经一去不复返了。(笑声)

查理·芒格:是的,随着报纸的衰落,政客们的表现并没有更好。我们会怀念报纸的力量的。

沃伦·巴菲特:我同意这一点。(掌声)

11. 总是会有跑赢大盘的机会

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 5.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Robert McArthur (PH) from Boston, Massachusetts. I’m starting a career in investing, and many, if not most, investors my age think they’re value investors. Also, there’s a record number of people here to see you this year, and the same value investors who were laughed at three years ago are now celebrated by the financial press. Will there be fewer metaphorical $100 bills left on the street going forward, and if so, should I look for a career in managing a business instead of managing money?

WARREN BUFFETT: There will probably be fewer, but I would say there will always be — except in the most bubbly of markets, perhaps — but there will always be opportunities if you’re not working with large amounts of money. The money manager — there’s a basic conflict. There’s conflicts in most businesses. Everybody’s pointing out the conflicts now in the investment banking business. But the investment management business has a conflict that’s equally as significant in the fact that asset gathering can become a way more important part of your income than asset managing. But if you manage moderate sums of money, I think there will always be opportunities to overperform. That doesn’t mean lots of people are going to do it, but they will be out there. And, you know, it might have been easier many years ago when there were fewer people looking and not as much information was available on the internet and all that. But people still make the same mistakes and they still get — well, I’ll give you an illustration. Charlie has a company called the Daily Journal Company. And the Daily Journal Company has a bunch of cash.

And it sat there with cash, and it sat there with cash, and I own 100 shares — which is all he’ll let me own — and I got their annual report here a while back. And in their fiscal year of 2009, they never bought stocks before that I’d seen, and all of a sudden they’d bought $15 million worth of stocks and they were worth 45 million. So by sitting around for a while, but waiting until things got really ridiculous in certain cases, he put $15 million out that became 45 million within, probably, a six month period or so. So opportunities come around. You have to be prepared to grab them when they come. And you can’t do it with the kind of money — I mean, you can’t get the extraordinary things with the kind of money that we’re running. With moderate amounts of money, I think there will always be opportunities. Charlie’s going to tell you something more pessimistic now, probably. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes. One piece of advice that Warren frequently gives — and it’s particularly useful to those going into money management — take the high road. It’s far less crowded. (Laughter and applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: Alan Simpson used to say, he said, “Those who take the high road in Washington are seldom bothered by heavy traffic.” (Laughter) But getting to the last part of your question, there’s going to be opportunities for talent, whether it’s in money management, operating management, whatever. It’s going to work. Money management, you know, is easier to scale up and easier to get into and all of that. So it was certainly my natural inclination, in any event. I would not have wanted to work my way up to plant superintendent and all of that — (laughs) — until I got a job at the top, you know, about the time they were going to give me a gold watch. But there’s opportunities in both places.

沃伦·巴菲特:第五个问题。

股东:我叫Robert McArthur,来自马萨诸塞州波士顿。我刚开始投资生涯,和我同龄的投资者中,即使不是大多数,也有很多人认为自己是一价值投资者。此外,今年来这里见您的人数创了纪录,而那些三年前还被嘲笑的价值投资者,现在却受到财经媒体的追捧。未来,街上隐喻的百元大钞是否会变少?如果是这样,我是否应该寻找一份管理企业而非管理资金的职业?

沃伦·巴菲特:可能会更少,但我认为总是会有——除了在最泡沫化的市场里——但如果你管理的资金量不大,机会总会有的。资金管理中存在一个基本的冲突。大多数行业都存在冲突。现在每个人都在指出投资银行业务中的冲突。但投资管理业务也有一个同样重大的冲突,即资产管理可能成为你收入中比资产管理更重要的部分。但如果你管理适度的资金,我想总是会有跑赢大盘的机会。这并不意味着很多人能做到,但机会就在那里。而且,你知道,很多年前可能更容易,因为那时看的人更少,互联网上也没有那么多信息。但人们仍然会犯同样的错误,他们仍然会——嗯,我给你举个例子。查理有一家叫日报公司(Daily Journal Company)的公司。这家公司有一大堆现金。

它一直拿着现金,一直拿着现金,我持有100股——这是他允许我持有的最大数量——前段时间我拿到了他们的年报。在2009财年,他们之前从未买入过我见过的股票,突然间他们买了价值1500万美元的股票,而这些股票后来价值4500万美元。所以,通过耐心等待,等到某些情况变得真正荒谬时,他拿出1500万美元,在大约六个月内变成了4500万美元。所以机会总会出现。你必须准备好当机会来临时抓住它们。而且你不能用我们管理的这种规模的资金做到这一点——我的意思是,你不能用我们管理的这种规模的资金去获得那些非凡的东西。对于适度的资金量,我认为机会总是存在的。现在查理大概要告诉你一些更悲观的东西了。(笑声)

查理·芒格:是的。沃伦经常给的一个建议——尤其对那些进入资金管理行业的人有用——走正道。那条路要空旷得多。(笑声和掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:艾伦·辛普森曾经说过:“那些在华盛顿走正道的人,很少受交通拥堵的困扰。”(笑声)但回到你问题的最后一部分,人才总会有机会,无论是在资金管理、运营管理还是其他方面。总会奏效的。资金管理,你知道,更容易规模化,更容易进入等等。所以无论如何,这肯定是我天生的倾向。我可不想一步步做到工厂主管什么的——(笑声)——直到他们准备给我一块金表的时候才得到高层职位。但两个地方都有机会。

12. 市政债券保险公司必须担心传染风险

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol?

CAROL LOOMIS: This question is about municipal bonds. Municipal bond defaults, on the scale you described in the 2008 letter, have so far not materialized. To what extent will we see municipalities default outright in the next five to 10 years? Will the bond insurance companies be able to swallow the losses? Will there be federal bailouts of states? And considering all of these risks, should investors be getting paid more than they already are for holding municipal bonds?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, if the bonds are insured by Berkshire, you don’t need to worry at all. (Laughs) But we’re not insuring a lot of bonds currently, because we don’t think the premiums are appropriate, which gets to the question. Just the other day, within the last few days — you’ve probably read about it in the papers — Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, defaulted on a relatively small amount of bonds. And the bond insurer, named Assured Guarantee, starts paying the interest. And Harrisburg may get things worked out in a week, you know, and they may not. There’s certainly some incentive to do that. And if they do get it worked out, the bond insurer’s not too much on the hook. But what you worry about is correlation in this field, that if one entity defaults — and particularly if nothing terrible happens, that the police are on the street the next day, and the fire trucks still go to fires and all that — and people start thinking, “Why should I have a great fiscal reputation when I can have lower taxes and still have all the services I need?”

It’s very hard to tell how that will play out. I personally think it would be very hard, in the end, for the federal government to turn away a state that was having extreme financial difficulties when they’d, in effect, gone into General Motors and various other entities and saved them. I don’t know exactly how you would tell the governor of state X that you were going to stiff-arm him, and when you’d participated in so many other bailouts of corporations. But who knows what would happen, and who knows how contagious it would be? The big thing you worry about if you’re a bond insurer is contagion. Obviously the bond insurers — except for Berkshire — the bond insurers, in my view, have got extraordinary liabilities in relation to their capital. And virtually every one of them either failed or effectively failed — had to spin off a bad bank versus a good bank type of thing, or something like that — with merely the troubles they encountered when they got into structured securities. And I think they’ve had a very optimistic attitude toward what could happen in the field. But I don’t know the answer on what default rates are going to be over the next few years.

I knew that I felt I was getting paid fairly for taking that risk on a year-and-a-half ago, and I don’t feel that we’re getting offered a premium that’s fair now, so we’re going to let somebody else do it. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, with the municipal bonds, I would try and invest in places that were both prosperous and disciplined. You want to invest in the prosperous, because Ben Franklin was right when he said, “It’s hard for an empty sack to stand upright.” And you want to invest in the disciplined places because integrity still matters. It’s not very difficult, it’s not very complicated.

WARREN BUFFETT: But you could argue that in a country, if the undisciplined are not being punished for being undisciplined, that the taxpayers in disciplined areas would say, “Wait a second. You know, why should we keep up a record of financial prudence and all that and pay our bills when other guys aren’t paying their bills?”

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, there’s no question about the fact that bad behavior is contagious. That’s the way human nature works. But I’d still rather be with the disciplined, —

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

CHARLIE MUNGER: — prosperous people.

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 6.

CHARLIE MUNGER: That’s why I like the Berkshire meeting. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: That, and free fudge. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特:卡罗尔?

卡罗尔·卢米斯:这个问题是关于市政债券的。你在2008年致股东信中描述的那种规模的市政债券违约,目前尚未出现。未来5到10年内,我们将在多大程度上看到市政当局直接违约?债券保险公司能否消化这些损失?联邦政府会救助各州吗?考虑到所有这些风险,投资者持有市政债券是否应该获得比目前更高的回报?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,如果债券是由伯克希尔担保的,你完全不用担心。(笑声)但我们目前没有承保很多债券,因为我们认为保费不合适,这就回到了这个问题。就在前几天,最近几天——你可能在报纸上看到了——宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡违约了相对少量债券。债券保险公司,名叫Assured Guarantee,开始支付利息。哈里斯堡可能在一周内解决问题,也可能不会。当然存在这样做的动机。如果他们解决了问题,债券保险公司的风险就不太大。但你担心的是这个领域的相关性,如果一家实体违约——特别是如果没有什么可怕的事情发生,警察第二天还在街上巡逻,消防车还在救火等等——人们就会开始想:“既然我可以享受更低的税收,同时仍然拥有所有我需要的服务,我为什么要保持良好的财政声誉呢?”

很难说这会产生什么后果。我个人认为,最终,当联邦政府实际上已经救助了通用汽车和各种其他实体之后,很难对一个陷入极端财政困难的州撒手不管。我不知道,当你参与过那么多企业救助之后,你会如何告诉X州的州长你将拒绝提供帮助。但谁知道会发生什么,谁知道传染性会有多强?如果你是债券保险公司,你主要担心的是传染风险。显然,在我看来,债券保险公司——除了伯克希尔——它们的负债相对于资本来说是异常巨大的。实际上,几乎每一家都失败了或实质上失败了——不得不剥离坏银行与好银行之类的东西——仅仅是因为它们涉足结构性证券时遇到的麻烦。而且我认为,它们对这个领域可能发生的事情持有非常乐观的态度。但我不知道未来几年的违约率会是多少。

一年半前,我知道自己认为承担这种风险得到了公平的回报,而我觉得现在没有人向我们提供公平的保费,所以我们让别人去做吧。查理?

查理·芒格:是的,对于市政债券,我会尽量投资于既繁荣又有纪律的地方。你想投资繁荣的地方,因为本·富兰克林说得对:“空口袋难以直立。”你想投资有纪律的地方,因为诚信仍然重要。这并不很难,也不很复杂。

沃伦·巴菲特:但你可以辩称,在一个国家里,如果无纪律者没有因为他们的无纪律而受到惩罚,那么有纪律地区的纳税人就会说:“等一下。凭什么我们其他人在不付账单的时候,我们却要保持财务审慎的记录并支付我们的账单?”

查理·芒格:嗯,毫无疑问,不良行为是会传染的。人性就是如此。但我还是宁愿与有纪律的——

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

查理·芒格:——繁荣的人在一起。

沃伦·巴菲特:第六个问题。

查理·芒格:这就是为什么我喜欢伯克希尔年会。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:还有免费的软糖。(掌声)

13. 短期股价波动既不可预测也不重要

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. I’m (inaudible) from Fort Lauderdale, Florida. First of all I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us so generously. Back in October of 2008, you highly recommended buying U.S. stocks and that was a brilliant idea, it worked very well. And I just want to get your opinion how you think about the market going forward. Are you still that optimistic, and what’s a reasonable rate of return to expect from equities in the next decade or so?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I write articles very infrequently, or get interviewed very infrequently, on the subject of the general level of the market itself. Probably only four or five times in 40 years have I really declared myself about — what I thought — about the general level of the stock market. And it turned out I was pretty premature, actually, in October of 2008, as was pointed out to me by a number of people. But I felt — and what I said in that article really was that it would be way better to own stocks over the long term than to follow a policy of buying either long-term bonds or holding cash. And I knew I could make that statement and I would be eventually — I thought odds were very high — I’d be proven right on that. But I don’t like — I don’t know what the stock market’s going to do next week, or next month, or next year. I don’t have any idea. People always think I do.

I know I don’t have any idea, I don’t think about it, it doesn’t make any difference because Charlie and I — I can’t recall a discussion we’ve ever had on it, basically. But I do think over the next 10 years or 20 years, I’d much rather own equities — including U.S. equities — I’d much rather own them than cash, or I’d much rather own them than a 10 or 20year bond. But that’s partly because I’m very unenthusiastic about the alternatives. I think equities are likely to give you some positive — modest positive — real return over time. But beyond that I really don’t know anything. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: That’s a cheerful thought that equities are the best of a bad lot of available opportunities. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: You disagree with it?

CHARLIE MUNGER: No, I think you’re right. (Laughter) I think people should get accustomed, on average, to doing less well in their investment portfolios, in real terms.

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie and I don’t —

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think we’re in for a long period of where the ordinary result is not going to be very exciting.

WARREN BUFFETT: But we like owning businesses. And we’re in a position where we can own entire businesses, but we also like partial ownership of businesses. And we want to own businesses where we really think they have some competitive advantage over time, and where we feel good about the management, and where we think the price is reasonably attractive. I think you can find things like that now, but they aren’t dramatically attractive at all. They do beat, in my view, they do beat holding cash or five, 10, or 20-year bonds.

股东:下午好,巴菲特先生,芒格先生。我来自佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡。首先,我想感谢你们如此慷慨地与我们分享智慧。早在2008年10月,您强烈推荐购买美国股票,那是个绝妙的主意,效果非常好。我想听听您对未来市场的看法。您还那么乐观吗?未来十年左右,股票合理的预期回报率是多少?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我很少就市场本身的整体水平撰写文章或接受采访。40年来,我大概只有四五次真正就我对股票市场整体水平的看法发表过意见。事实证明,实际上,我在2008年10月的看法相当超前,有好几个人向我指出过这一点。但我当时觉得——我在那篇文章中真正说的是,长期持有股票远比购买长期债券或持有现金的政策要好。我知道我可以这么说,而且最终——我认为概率非常高——我会被证明是正确的。但我不喜欢——我不知道下周、下个月或明年股市会怎样。我一点都不知道。人们总以为我知道。

我知道自己一无所知,我不去想它,这没什么区别,因为查理和我——我基本上想不起来我们讨论过这个问题。但我确实认为,在未来10年或20年里,我宁愿持有股票——包括美国股票——我宁愿持有它们也不愿持有现金,或者宁愿持有它们也不愿持有10年或20年期债券。但这部分是因为我对替代品非常不热衷。我认为随着时间的推移,股票很可能会给你一些正的——温和的正的——实际回报。但除此之外我真的什么都不知道。查理?

查理·芒格:股票是一堆糟糕的可选机会中最好的一个,这个想法倒是令人愉快。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:你不同意吗?

查理·芒格:不,我认为你是对的。(笑声)我认为人们应该习惯于,平均而言,他们的投资组合在实际回报方面表现不会那么好。

沃伦·巴菲特:我和查理不——

查理·芒格:我认为我们将经历一个较长的时期,普通的投资结果不会很令人兴奋。

沃伦·巴菲特:但我们喜欢拥有企业。我们处于可以拥有整个企业的位置,但我们也喜欢拥有企业的部分所有权。我们希望拥有那些我们认为随着时间的推移具有某种竞争优势、对管理层感觉良好、并且价格合理有吸引力的企业。我认为你现在可以找到这样的东西,但它们根本谈不上极具吸引力。在我看来,它们确实比持有现金或5年、10年、20年期债券要好。

14. 为什么我们不用债券评级机构

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky?

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from John Bailer (PH), who’s asking about the rating agencies. He points out that you started selling your stake in Moody’s this year. “Has the investment case for Moody’s changed due to potential regulation, and if so, why not sell the position to zero?”

WARREN BUFFETT: We won’t discuss what we will or won’t do with any position, but I would say this. The ratings agencies have had, and still have, under current conditions, an incredibly wonderful business. I mean, it takes no capital at all, you know, the pricing power is significant. And certain parts of the world feel they need rating agencies. There are also — a certain part of the world is very mad at rating agencies. And many feel that the rating agencies let them down when the rating agencies, essentially, succumbed to the same mania, in effect, you can say, that prevailed throughout the investment world, and, really, the political world, and the media world, et cetera. They made the same mistake that, again, politicians made, I made, you know, you made, mortgage brokers made, whomever. They couldn’t see a world where residential housing, countrywide, would collapse. And I don’t think that was done because they were — the incentive part of it, there may have been some small aspect that that played. I just think that, you know, it’s very hard to think contrary to the crowd.

And on the other hand, there is a, obviously, a backlash against rating agencies. There may be legal remedies. You can get views on that either way. If they are not forced to change their — the whole structure around them does not change in some dramatic way — it’s a pretty darn good business in that you can’t shop pricing in the rating agency business. We have never paid any attention to ratings for bonds, I mean, you know, at Berkshire. We don’t think we should farm out, outsource, investment judgment. If we can’t do it ourselves, we just don’t do it. And we’re not going to rely on somebody else’s opinion, whether it’s a rating agency or an investment advisory organization, or a management consultant firm, or anybody else. So, it’s not a business that we rely on, but we do recognize that if the, sort of, the social model doesn’t change, it still remains a phenomenal business. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I would argue that the rating agencies, in their present forum, and structured with their present incentives, have been a wonderfully constructive influence in our country for a great many decades. And what happened, of course, is that the cognition faltered. They drifted with the stupidity of their times in a way that was regrettable. Part of it came out of asininity in American business education. They overbelieved in these ridiculous models and so on and so on. And I have yet to hear a single apology from business academia for its huge contribution to our present difficulties. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特:贝基?

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自John Bailer,他问的是关于评级机构的事。他指出你今年开始出售穆迪的股份。“投资穆迪的理由是否因潜在监管而改变?如果改变了,为什么不卖到零头寸?”

沃伦·巴菲特:我们不会讨论对任何头寸会做什么或不会做什么,但我会这么说。在目前的条件下,评级机构已经并且仍然拥有一个极其出色的业务。我是说,它根本不需要资本,定价权很显著。世界上某些地方觉得他们需要评级机构。也有——世界上某些地方对评级机构非常生气。许多人觉得评级机构让他们失望了,因为评级机构,基本上可以说,屈从于同样盛行于整个投资界,实际上,还有政界、媒体界等等的狂热情绪。他们犯了同样的错误,同样,政客们犯了,我犯了,你犯了,抵押贷款经纪人犯了,无论谁。他们看不到全美住宅市场会崩溃。我不认为这是因为他们——激励因素可能起了一小部分作用。我只是觉得,你知道,逆着大众思考非常困难。

另一方面,显然存在对评级机构的反弹。可能有法律补救措施。对此你可以有不同看法。如果它们不被强制改变——围绕它们的整个结构不发生戏剧性的变化——那是一个非常不错的生意,因为在评级业务中你无法货比三家地寻找定价。我们从未关注过债券的评级,我的意思是,在伯克希尔。我们认为我们不应该外包,外判投资判断。如果我们自己做不到,我们就干脆不做。我们不会依赖别人的意见,无论是评级机构、投资咨询机构、管理咨询公司,还是其他任何人。所以,这不是我们依赖的业务,但我们确实认识到,如果这种社会模式不改变,它仍然是一个非凡的生意。查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,我想说的是,评级机构,在它们目前的组织形式和目前的激励机制下,几十年来在我国一直是一股非常具有建设性的力量。当然,发生的事情是认知出现了失误。它们以一种令人遗憾的方式随波逐流,陷入了当时时代的愚蠢之中。部分原因来自美国商业教育的愚蠢。它们过度相信这些荒谬的模型,等等。我还没有听到商学界任何一个人为他们对当前困境的巨大贡献道歉。(掌声)

15. 当石油“意外之财”耗尽时,世界会找到解决方案

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Area 7.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mike McCoy (PH) from San Francisco. Chairman Buffett, you frequently speak favorably about the prosperity of future generations, that our children and our children’s children will live better than us. How much of our current prosperity do you attribute to us being able to get oil out of the ground at a fraction of the cost of its value to us in the economy? And how will we be able to live better in the future when we can no longer get more and more of this free lunch and we become dependent on more dilute sources like solar and wind? Couldn’t this turn out like trying to satisfy a drug addict with a Coca-Cola?

WARREN BUFFETT: The oil business — obviously, the discovery of oil — what was it, about 1850- something? Colonel Drake at Titusville, Pennsylvania, or something? That changed the world in a very major way, and it was only 150 years ago. And since then we’ve been sticking straws into the earth at an incredible pace. There’s over 500,000 producing wells in the United States, would you believe that? I mean, 11 barrels, 10 barrels a day average or something of the sort. We have really exploited what may have taken, I don’t know, whether it was hundreds of thousands of years or millions of years to create. It’s contributed in a huge way to the prosperity of the world, but the world, in my view, will not be dependent upon that particular — call it “windfall” — for the next hundred years. And Charlie knows way more about this subject than I do, but there will be other free lunches available. You know, whether it’s solar or — there’s lots of possibilities.

Don’t ever give up on humans’ ability to innovate in ways that create solutions to problems that seem insolvable. We’ve faced all kinds of predictions. You know, all of the inventions having been invented — there’s some famous statement, I forget who made, on that. We haven’t really started. I mean, if you could pick a time in history when you would want to be born — leaving out the nuclear, chemical and biological threat, which is something to leave out — but I would pick today. The world has a bright future. Now, Charlie will give you the other side of that. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: No. I think you’re failing to recognize something really important. In the technology of 150 years ago, they really needed the oil to get ahead. In our advanced civilization, which has benefited from this last 150 years of technological expertise, we can get ahead without the oil if we have to. Now, Freeman Dyson is a physicist who is not an economist but a genius, and he’s been very good at pointing out that it isn’t that horrible to contemplate a world which goes off oil, provided that world is as rich and knowledgeable as ours is now. So the fact that they couldn’t have got to where we are now without the oil starting 150 years ago, does not mean we can’t do without the oil if we have to. We need the oil and the gas, and the coal, eventually, for chemical feed stocks more than we need it for keeping warm and propelling our vehicles.

WARREN BUFFETT: And the adjustment, fortunately, will be fairly gradual. I mean, it isn’t like 85 million barrels in the day goes to 50 million or something in five or 10 years. So it’s a workable period of adjustment, in my view.

CHARLIE MUNGER: If it doesn’t bother Freeman Dyson, who knows more about it, I don’t think it should bother you too much. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: He’s always pulling that on me. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:第七个区域。

股东:来自旧金山的Mike McCoy。巴菲特主席,您经常对未来几代人的繁荣表示乐观,说我们的孩子和孩子的孩子会比我们过得更好。您认为我们目前的繁荣,有多少归功于我们能够以远低于其经济价值的成本从地下开采石油?当我们再也无法获得越来越多的这种免费午餐,转而依赖像太阳能和风能这样更稀薄的能源时,我们未来怎么能过得更好?这会不会变成像试图用可口可乐来满足一个毒瘾者那样?

沃伦·巴菲特:石油业务——显然,石油的发现——大概是1850年左右?宾夕法尼亚州泰特斯维尔的德雷克上校?那件事在150年前极大地改变了世界。从那时起,我们以难以置信的速度把吸管插进地球。美国有超过50万口生产井,你信吗?我是说,平均每天11桶、10桶之类的。我们确实在开采可能需要,我不知道,是几十万年还是几百万年才能形成的东西。它为世界的繁荣做出了巨大贡献,但在我看来,世界在接下来的一百年里不会再依赖那个特定的——称之为“意外之财”。查理比我更了解这个话题,但还会有其他的免费午餐。你知道,无论是太阳能还是——有很多可能性。

永远不要放弃人类创新的能力,去创造解决看似无解问题的方法。我们面对过各种各样的预言。你知道,所有的发明都已经被发明了——有个著名的说法,我忘了是谁说的。我们其实还没真正开始。我的意思是,如果你能选择一个你想出生的历史时刻——排除掉核、化学和生物威胁,这是需要排除的——但我会选择今天。世界有光明的未来。现在,查理会给你讲另一面。(笑声)

查理·芒格:不。我认为你没有认识到一些非常重要的事情。在150年前的技术条件下,他们确实需要石油才能进步。在我们这个从过去150年专业技术中受益的先进文明里,如果迫不得已,我们可以在没有石油的情况下取得进步。弗里曼·戴森是一位物理学家,不是经济学家,但他是天才,他非常善于指出,设想一个脱离石油的世界并不可怕,只要这个世界像我们现在一样富裕和知识丰富。因此,他们在150年前没有石油就无法达到我们现在的位置,并不意味着我们在必要时可以没有石油。我们最终需要石油、天然气和煤炭作为化工原料,其重要性超过了用于取暖和驱动车辆。

沃伦·巴菲特:幸运的是,调整会相当缓慢。我的意思是,不会像每天8500万桶在5年或10年内变成5000万桶那样。所以在我看来,这是一个可行的调整期。

查理·芒格:如果这都不困扰更了解情况的弗里曼·戴森,我认为也不应该太困扰你。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:他总是拿这个来对付我。(笑声)

16. 巴菲特不喜欢卡夫收购吉百利

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Andrew?

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: I received a number of questions regarding Kraft, and this one comes from a shareholder who says they prefer to remain anonymous. The question is, “Given your stake in Kraft and your public criticism earlier this year about the Kraft-Cadbury deal, how would you grade the Kraft board of director’s capital allocation and the management compensation abilities? “What did you think of Kraft CEO Irene Rosenfeld’s $26.3 million compensation package for services, including her leadership in completing the Cadbury acquisition and selling Kraft’s North American frozen pizza business?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I didn’t like either the Cadbury decision or the pizza decision. But we’ve made our share of dumb deals at Berkshire, you know. So I’ve gotten more tolerant of other people, and incidentally the fact I think it’s a dumb deal doesn’t for certain make it a dumb deal, but I think the odds are it was a dumb deal. In fact, I think the odds are that both deals were dumb. The pizza deal was particularly dumb, but — in my view. But just think of all the dumb things we’ve done, right? Starting with that department store in Baltimore.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Oh yeah, right. A few Irish banks, you know.

WARREN BUFFETT: Right, (inaudible).

CHARLIE MUNGER: We never seem to go —

WARREN BUFFETT: I wish you hadn’t brought this up.

CHARLIE MUNGER: — we never get over it. (Laughs)

WARREN BUFFETT: We expect to do some dumb things, it’s just we get mad when other people do dumb things with our money. (Laughs) You know, the pizza business — somewhere I probably have some figures on that — but when they sold the pizza business for $3.7 billion they announced it as selling it for $3.7 billion. They didn’t sell it for $3.7 billion, that’s what the other guy paid. What they got was about $2.5 billion. And that was a terribly tax-inefficient deal when they’d already shown their ability to understand that you could do a tax-efficient deal when they sold the Post cereals business earlier. And when they referenced — well, they didn’t reference at all what pizza was earning beforehand, but I think that Nestle said it was earning something like 280 million pre-tax, but that was referring to the previous year. When they talked about the Cadbury earnings they were buying, they were talking about next year. And when they talked about the pizza earnings they were selling, they talked about last year.

Pizza in 2009, believe it or not, earned three hundred and, I think, 40 million pre-tax. So they got 2 1/2 billion for 340 million of pizza earnings that were growing as fast or faster than the Cadbury earnings and where the sales were going as fast or faster. It really didn’t make sense in my view. Now, you know, Irene is a perfectly capable manager and she may know a lot of things about that business I don’t know. Like I say, we’ve made plenty of mistakes ourselves. But if it’d been me, I would have voted to keep pizza and not buy Cadbury. And I expressed myself, and I don’t do that too often, but we owned a lot of Kraft. And Kraft, still, is selling for considerably less than the value of its constituent parts, particularly if you value them the way they valued Cadbury. (Laughter) But if they don’t sell them all like they sold pizza, you know, the present price is below the value of Kool-Aid and A.1. Sauce and — and Jell-O and Oscar Meyer wieners and a few things.

Those are very good businesses. I just hated to see them give up a significant portion of those businesses to buy Cadbury at what I felt was a very fancy price. Charlie? And in terms of her compensation, you know, we’ve got a compensation system at Berkshire that I regard as quite rational. And there’s a lot of companies in the United States that have different compensation systems. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I think generally, at the top of American businesses, people think they know too much about strategy. And they tend to hate the tough competitive conditions in the business they’re in, and to yearn for some business where it’s less difficult. You remember when Xerox bought Crum & Forster, an American insurance company, one of the dumbest acquisitions in all time? The reason Xerox did that is they didn’t have any tough Japanese competing in the insurance business. They were really tired of facing the tough competition they had in the business they were in. I think it’s quite typical to dream, if you’re in business, that something that’s a little different, no matter how much you pay for it, will make your troubles less.

WARREN BUFFETT: And you will have an absolute army of lawyers, investment advisors, public relations people, all of whom will have a strong economic interest in having you push ahead on deal, after deal, after deal, regardless of how the shareholders come out. It’s just — it’s the way it works. OK.

CHARLIE MUNGER: That’s why Berkshire is a better deal. (Laughter) We are very stupid in many ways, but we have avoided a slight subset of stupidities. (Laughter) And they’re important.

沃伦·巴菲特:安德鲁?

安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金:我收到了很多关于卡夫的问题,这个问题来自一位希望匿名的股东。问题是:“鉴于您持有卡夫股票,以及您今年早些时候对卡夫-吉百利交易的公开批评,您如何评价卡夫董事会资本配置和管理层薪酬的能力?”“您如何看待卡夫CEO艾琳·罗森菲尔德2630万美元的薪酬方案,其中包括她领导完成收购吉百利和出售卡夫北美冷冻披萨业务的服务?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我既不喜欢收购吉百利的决定,也不喜欢出售披萨业务的决定。但我们在伯克希尔也做过不少愚蠢的交易。所以我变得更能容忍别人了,而且顺便说一句,我认为这是一笔愚蠢的交易,这并不确定地意味着它就是一笔愚蠢的交易,但我认为很可能是一笔愚蠢的交易。事实上,我认为很可能两笔交易都是愚蠢的。披萨交易尤其愚蠢,依我看。但是想想我们自己做过的所有蠢事,对吧?从巴尔的摩那家百货公司开始。

查理·芒格:哦,是的,没错。还有几家爱尔兰银行,你知道。

沃伦·巴菲特:对。

查理·芒格:我们似乎从未——

沃伦·巴菲特:我希望你没提这事。

查理·芒格:——我们永远也过不去这个坎。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:我们预期自己会做些蠢事,只是当别人用我们的钱做蠢事时我们会生气。(笑声)你知道,披萨业务——我大概在某个地方有一些数据——当他们以37亿美元出售披萨业务时,他们宣布以37亿美元出售。他们并没有在37亿美元的价格卖出,那是对方支付的价格。他们实际拿到的是大约25亿美元。这是一笔税收效率极低的交易,而他们之前出售Post谷物业务时,已经展示了他们理解如何做一笔节税交易的能力。当他们引用——嗯,他们根本没有提披萨之前的盈利,但我想雀巢说它的税前利润大约是2.8亿美元,但那是指前一年。当他们谈论他们正在收购的吉百利的盈利时,他们说的是未来一年。而当他们谈论正在出售的披萨的盈利时,他们说的是过去一年。

不管你信不信,披萨业务在2009年赚了,我想,是3.4亿美元的税前利润。所以他们以25亿美元的价格卖掉了3.4亿美元的披萨利润,而后者增长的速度与吉百利利润一样快甚至更快,销售额的增长也一样快甚至更快。在我看来这真的说不通。现在,你知道,艾琳是一位完全有能力的经理,她可能比我更了解那个业务。就像我说的,我们自己犯了很多错误。但如果是我,我会投票保留披萨业务,而不是收购吉百利。我表达了我的观点,我不经常这样做,但我们持有大量卡夫股票。而卡夫目前的售价仍然远低于其各个组成部分的价值,特别是如果你用他们评估吉百利的方式来评估它们的话。(笑声)但如果他们不像卖掉披萨那样把它们都卖掉的话,你知道,目前的价格低于Kool-Aid、A.1酱、Jell-O、Oscar Meyer热狗和其他一些东西的价值。

这些都是非常好的业务。我只是不想看到他们放弃其中很大一部分业务,去购买我看来价格非常高昂的吉百利。查理?至于她的薪酬,你知道,我们在伯克希尔有一个我认为相当合理的薪酬体系。美国有很多公司有不同的薪酬体系。(笑声)

查理·芒格:是的,我认为总的来说,在美国企业的顶层,人们觉得他们对战略知道得太多了。他们往往讨厌自己所在行业激烈的竞争环境,渴望进入一个不那么困难的行业。你还记得施乐收购美国保险公司Crum & Forster吗,那是有史以来最愚蠢的收购之一?施乐这么做的原因是,保险业里没有强悍的日本对手与之竞争。他们真的厌倦了面对自己行业里激烈的竞争。我认为,如果你在经营企业,梦想着有点不同的东西,无论为之付出多大代价,都能减轻你的麻烦,这是非常典型的想法。

沃伦·巴菲特:而且你会拥有一支庞大的律师、投资顾问、公关人员队伍,他们都有强劲的经济利益驱使你不断地推进一个又一个交易,不管股东的结果如何。这就是——这就是它运作的方式。好了。

查理·芒格:这就是为什么伯克希尔是一个更好的地方。(笑声)我们在很多方面都很愚蠢,但我们已经避免了一小部分愚蠢的事情。(笑声)而这些事情很重要。

17. 诚信的最大威胁:“别人都这么做”

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK Number 8.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Dear Mr. Buffett, dear Mr. Munger. My name is Richard Rentrop. I’m a shareholder from Germany. Mr. Munger, you just mentioned again the importance of integrity. My question is about changes in integrity of management. One of your three key questions is, does management love what they do or does management love the money? So how do you see the crisis having changed integrity of management?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think what led to the crisis involved, to some extent, a lack of integrity in many a management. Fortunately, some of them are now gone. So, integrity’s very important. It’s the safest way to make money, also. There’s an occasional perfect knave who succeeds pretty well with money, but that kind of success reminds me of what Pope Urban said about Cardinal Richelieu. He said, “If there is a God, Cardinal Richelieu has much to answer for. But if there is no God, he’s done rather well.” (Laughter) And too many people want to be like Pope Urban’s view of Cardinal Richelieu. And — the integrity is important, it’s terribly important. And of course everybody mouths the integrity, even when it’s lacking. So it’s difficult to be sure that professing integrity is the same as having it.

WARREN BUFFETT: The “everyone else is doing it” is the toughest thing. I think —

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah.

WARREN BUFFETT: You had this classic example. In about 1993, roughly, you know, the Accounting Standards Board came out and says what was obvious to everybody all along, was that stock options were actually expense, and that expenses, for some reason or another, belonged on the income statement. And America — corporate America — fought back like you cannot believe. I mean, it was like World War III had broken out, in terms of armies of CEOs marching on Washington. So the Accounting Standard Board backed off. Congress — the Senate — voted 88 to 9 to tell them that, you know, what the hell did the Accounting Standards Board know about accounting, and that the Senate would tell them what accounting was all about. When the Accounting Standards Board backed off, they said, “We’ll now say that you can do it one of two ways. Number one is preferred,” which was to expense. Number two was acceptable, but not preferred. Of the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies, 498 chose number two, the non-preferred way. Two took the preferred method.

And I talked to a number of people in that 498 that I would trust to be a trustee of my will, you know, I’d love to have them as a next door neighbor, they could marry my daughter, but in the end they said, “I can’t do it if the other guy isn’t doing it.” It was a variation on the, “I’m doing it because the other guy is doing it.” They basically said, “I’ll be penalizing my shareholders if I report less in the way of earnings than I can report. And all the other guys are doing it that way, and I understand your point.” And the situational ethics problem is huge. I gave you earlier that illustration of how rare it is to find, if you carry it out to tenths of a cent, a four in reported earnings, quarterly. That’s not accidental and it’s — but if you talk to the people that play games to get that four up to five, they would say, “Everybody else is doing it, your own statistics proved that.”

And that is, you know, it is a tough problem to deal with. We try to create as few situations in Berkshire as we can that would induce such behavior. I don’t have the managers submit budgets to me, there is no Berkshire budget, you know. They can use them in their own operations. Some do and some don’t. Many do, a great many do. But if they submit them to me, you know, and the temptation becomes, if they’re not quite making it and they think I’m looking at them all the time, the temptation becomes to fudge in some way. And very few would do it, but the more that thought the other ones were doing it, the more that would do it. It’s just human behavior. And you want to try and create a structure that minimizes the weaknesses in human behavior. And I think Berkshire’s about as good a place at that as any, although I’m sure we’re not perfect at it. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, what’s really interesting on this issue is that so much of the bad behavior does not come from malevolence or overweening greed or anything like that. It comes from subconscious poor cognition that justifies a lot of behavior that’s really not justifiable if it’s better understood. And that happens to practically everybody. And the cure is very difficult. The best cure is to have a system where the people who are making the decisions bear the consequences. And that’s why the system that Wall Street created where nobody really owned the mortgages, they just passed them rapidly to somebody else at a profit. And so nobody felt any responsibility that the mortgages be any good. Systems like that, at a basic level, are irresponsible systems, and it’s deeply immoral to create irresponsible systems like that. But the people who create them don’t realize they’re being immoral, they think those systems are wonderful. Who do you see apologizing for the behavior you now find so regrettable in our recent mess? There are very few apologies, you’ll note. People think they did fine.

沃伦·巴菲特:好了,第八个问题。

股东:尊敬的巴菲特先生,尊敬的芒格先生。我叫Richard Rentrop,来自德国的一名股东。芒格先生,您刚才再次提到了诚信的重要性。我的问题是关于管理层诚信的变化。您的三个关键问题之一是,管理层是热爱他们所做的工作还是热爱金钱?那么您如何看待这次危机改变了管理层的诚信?

查理·芒格:我认为,导致危机的原因,在某种程度上,涉及许多管理层缺乏诚信。幸运的是,其中一些人现在已经不在了。所以,诚信非常重要。它也是最安全的赚钱方式。偶尔会有完美的恶棍在金钱上相当成功,但这种成功让我想起了教皇乌尔班对红衣主教黎塞留的评价。他说:“如果存在上帝,红衣主教黎塞留有很多需要回答的问题。但如果没有上帝,那他做得相当不错。”(笑声)有太多人想成为教皇乌尔班眼中红衣主教黎塞留那样的人。而且——诚信很重要,极其重要。当然,每个人嘴上都会说诚信,即使他们缺乏诚信。所以很难确定宣称诚信是否等同于拥有诚信。

沃伦·巴菲特:“别人都这么做”是最难办的事。我认为——

查理·芒格:是的。

沃伦·巴菲特:有一个经典的例子。大约在1993年左右,会计标准委员会提出了一项对所有人来说都显而易见的事实,即股票期权实际上是一种费用,而费用,无论出于何种原因,都应该计入损益表。而美国——美国企业界——以你无法相信的程度进行了反击。我的意思是,那就像第三次世界大战爆发了,大批CEO向华盛顿进军。所以会计标准委员会退缩了。国会——参议院——以88票对9票投票告诉他们,会计标准委员会懂什么会计,参议院会告诉他们会计是怎么回事。当会计标准委员会退缩时,他们说:“我们现在会告诉你们,你们可以有两种做法。第一种是优先选择,”即费用化。第二种是可以接受的,但不是优先选择。在标准普尔500指数公司中,有498家选择了第二种,非优先方式。只有两家选择了优先方法。

我和那498家公司中的一些人谈过,这些人我相信可以托付我的遗嘱,我愿意让他们做我的邻居,他们可以娶我的女儿,但最终他们说:“如果其他人不这么做,我就不能这么做。”这类似于“我这么做是因为别人也这么做”。他们基本上说:“如果我报告的利润少于我能报告的,我会损害股东的利益。所有其他人都这么做,我理解你的观点。”情景伦理问题非常巨大。我之前给你们举过那个例子,如果你精确到小数点后一位,在季度财报中找到一个数字4是多么罕见。这不是偶然的,而且——但如果你和那些玩弄数字游戏将4变成5的人交谈,他们会说:“别人都这么做,你自己的统计数据证明了这一点。”

你知道,这是一个很难处理的问题。我们努力在伯克希尔尽可能少地制造可能诱发此类行为的情况。我不要求经理们向我提交预算,伯克希尔没有预算。他们可以在自己的运营中使用预算。有些人用,有些人不用。很多人用,非常多的人用。但如果他们提交给我,诱惑就来了,如果他们没达到目标,并且认为我一直在盯着他们,那么他们就会倾向于以某种方式篡改数据。很少有人会这么做,但越是觉得别人在这么做的人,就越可能这么做。这只是人类行为。你希望努力创造一个能够最小化人类行为弱点的结构。我认为伯克希尔在这方面做得和任何地方一样好,尽管我确信我们在这方面并非完美。查理?

查理·芒格:是的,在这个问题上真正有趣的是,如此多的不良行为并非来自恶意或过度的贪婪之类的东西。它来自潜意识的认知缺陷,这种缺陷为许多行为辩护,而这些行为如果被更好地理解,实际上是无法辩护的。这几乎发生在每个人身上。治愈方法非常困难。最好的方法是一个让做决策的人承担后果的体系。这就是为什么华尔街创造的体系,其中没有人真正拥有抵押贷款,他们只是迅速地将它们以利润转手给其他人。所以没有人觉得对这些抵押贷款的质量有任何责任。这样的体系,在基本层面上,是不负责任的体系,创造这种不负责任的体系是非常不道德的。但创建这些体系的人并没有意识到他们是不道德的,他们认为这些体系很棒。你看到过谁为我们最近这场混乱中你现在认为如此遗憾的行为道歉吗?你会注意到,很少有人道歉。人们认为他们做得很好。

18. 如果你在所有人都害怕的时候也害怕,就赚不到钱

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol? (Applause)

CAROL LOOMIS: This question is from James A. Star. “I have read an enormous amount about past market declines and the opportunities they presented to investors. “The last two years have seemed to me, a 43-year-old investor, a real opportunity. Yet in the thick of the action, I was too scared, because I felt the market decline, while severe, was not necessarily sufficient to match the risks of global financial meltdown. “So my question is, given that we are possibly not totally out of the woods, how did the two of you assess this latest buying opportunity against the previous opportunities of your life?”

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s not the greatest one. We’ve seen a few that scream at us, and we’ve seen a few periods of overvaluation that scream at us. And 90 percent of the time we’re somewhere in between and we don’t know exactly where we are in between. The business of being scared, you know, I don’t know what you do about that. If you’re of that — if you have a temperament that when others are fearful you’re going to get scared yourself, you know, you are not going to make a lot of money in securities over time, in all probability. You know, people really — if they didn’t look at quotations — but, of course, the whole world is urging them to look at quotations, and more than that, do something based on small changes in quotations. But think how much more rational — we’ve talked about it before — but think how much more rational investing in a farm is than the way many people buy stocks. If you buy a farm, do you get a quote next week, do you get a quote next month?

If you buy an apartment house, do you get a quote next week or month? No, you look at the apartment house or the farm and you say, “I expect it to produce so many bushels of soy beans and corn, and if it does that, it meets my expectations.” If they buy a stock and they think if it goes up it’s wonderful, and if it goes down it’s bad. We think just the opposite. When it goes down we love it, because we’ll buy more. And if it goes up, it kills us to buy more. And I — you know — all kinds — you know, Ben Graham wrote about it. It’s been explained. But if you can’t get yourself in that mental attitude, you’re going to be scared whenever everybody else is scared.

And to expect somebody else to tell you when to buy and therefore get your courage back up or something, you know, I could get this fellow’s courage up substantially by saying this is a wonderful time to buy, and then a week from now he’d run into somebody else that tells him the world is coming to an end and he’d sell. I mean, he’s a broker’s friend, but he’s not going to make a lot of money. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I think I developed more courage after I learned I could handle hardship. So maybe you should get your feet wet with a little more failure. (Laughter and applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: I’ve certainly followed that advice. (Laughter) No, some people really do not have the — apparently, they don’t have the temperament, or emotional stability, or whatever it may be, to invest in securities. They’d be much better off if there were no quotations at all. And Keynes talked about that some in the past, too. To take something that should be an asset, a quotation every day, you know, terrific liquidity, nobody says, “How liquid is my farm?” or something of the sort. So they’re not expecting the prices to tell them something about how they’re doing. The market is saying this or that. Whenever anybody says, “The market is saying this or that,” you know, it’s sort of unbelievable. But there’s a lot of interest in investing, and people are going to yak about it all the time. And in the end, what counts is buying a good business at a decent price, and then forgetting about it for a long, long, long time. And some people can do it and some people can’t.

沃伦·巴菲特:卡罗尔?(掌声)

卡罗尔·卢米斯:这个问题来自James A. Star。“我读过大量关于过去市场下跌及其为投资者带来机会的资料。对我这个43岁的投资者来说,过去两年似乎是一个真正的机会。

2010年股东大会

第5/6部分

沃伦·巴菲特: 可能不会。(笑声)我做了很多对伯克希尔股东来说并非最佳时间利用的事情。我每周在网上打12个小时桥牌,你知道。我坐在那里并不是想着提高桥牌技巧会给伯克希尔带来奇迹。(笑)不,我——我确实——多年来我看到,电视广播的发展,相对于印刷媒体,我想说的是,如果你想要一个你所说内容的准确记录,而不是经过记者甚至编辑的解读——他们会把东西打回去说:“把六段删成四段,你为什么不问这个问题?“——我更愿意在查理·罗斯的节目上有一个永久记录。人们可以回去看我到底说了什么,还有我的肢体语言,以及我是否在开玩笑。我相信劳埃德·布兰克费恩宁愿做一次电视采访。他宁愿收回那句关于做上帝工作的评论,在任何情况下都是如此。

但我敢打赌,那只是之前谈话中的一个随口说说的玩笑话。显然他不是字面意思,但他在媒体上被批得体无完肤,因为有人选择半当真地对待它,然后其他人为了配合其他报道,也那样解读。我喜欢这个想法,无论是CNBC保留记录还是查理·罗斯保留记录,就是用自己的话去被评判,而不是让别人写几段话试图总结我的观点。这需要上电视,而不是让人们本质上把一个一小时的采访,通常只是为了寻找一个符合他们叙事框架的单一引语,然后让那个引语以某种方式成为我思想的代表。所以,我能越清晰地表达我的想法——无论是自己写年度报告还是上电视——我对报道准确性的感觉就越好。我几年前就明白了这一点。所以现在这是我去的方向。至于这是否是时间的最佳利用,它运作得很好。我给你讲个故事。

在电视上你甚至也得小心一点。在我们完成伯灵顿交易后,查理·罗斯——他可能在这里——对我做了一个采访,我们在一个周五早上录了像。我们录了像,过程很愉快。在录像中有一小段展示了很棒的铁路场景,其中一个有加里·格兰特和格蕾丝·凯利,另一个有玛丽莲·梦露在《热情似火》里,然后他们展示了一堆我们今天早上在电影里看到的关于铁路的东西。当我们全部做完后,他问了我一个问题。只是为了给一个随口回答,但它确实与我刚刚看到的有关联,我说:“嗯,如果他们附送格蕾丝·凯利和玛丽莲·梦露,我会为伯灵顿付更多的钱。“(笑声)嗯,这个录像采访长达一小时六分钟,所以那天晚上播放时他们不得不剪掉六分钟,他们剪掉了显示格蕾丝·凯利和玛丽莲·梦露的那些铁路场景。

(笑声)所以对于任何观看这个东西的人来说,看起来我在查理跟我说话的时候,是在那里幻想这些——(笑声)所以即使电视也不安全。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Probably not. (Laughter) I do a lot of things that aren’t the best use of my time for Berkshire shareholders. I play bridge on the internet 12 hours a week, you know. I’m not sitting there thinking improving my bridge skills is going to do wonders for Berkshire. (Laughs) No, I — I do — I have seen over the years that the development of broadcast television, as opposed to print, and I would say that if you want to have a record of exactly what you said as opposed to interpreted through not only reporters but editors who bounce back things and say, “Take six paragraphs down to four paragraphs, and why don’t you ask this question?” I would much rather have a record on Charlie Rose which is permanent. Where people can go back and look at exactly what I said, and my body language, and whether I was kidding. I’m sure Lloyd Blankfein would have preferred to have a television interview. He would like to take back that remark about, you know, doing God’s work, under any circumstances.

But I would bet that that was delivered as a throwaway line in terms of something that was said earlier. Clearly he did not mean that in a literal sense, but he’s gotten killed in the media because somebody elected to treat it halfway seriously, and then other people, to fit other stories, play it that way. I like the idea, whether it’s, you know, in terms of CNBC keeping a record of it or Charlie Rose keeping a record of it, of being judged by my own words rather than somebody writing a few paragraphs trying to summarize some views. And that requires being on television instead of having people, essentially, take a one-hour interview, often just shopping for a single quote that fits their storyline, and having that somehow become representative of what I think. So the clearer I can be about what I think, whether writing my own annual report or whether being in broadcast, the better I feel about the accuracy of the reporting. And I figured that out a few years ago. So that’s the direction I go now. And whether it’s the best use of the time, it works fine. I’ll tell you one story on that.

You even have to be a little careful about broadcast. After we made the Burlington deal, Charlie Rose, who may be here, did an interview with me and we taped it on a Friday morning. And we did the tape, and we had a good time doing it. And during the tape there was a little section on it showing great railroad scenes, and one had Cary Grant and Grace Kelly, and another one had Marilyn Monroe in “Some Like It Hot,” and then they showed a bunch of the kind of things we had about railroads in our movie this morning. And when we got all through that, he asked me some question. And just to give a flip answer, but it did tie in with what I’d just seen, I said, “Well, I would have paid more for the Burlington if they’d thrown in Grace Kelly and Marilyn Monroe.” (Laughter) Well, this taped interview ran an hour and six minutes, so when they ran the tape that night they had to take out six minutes and they took out these railroad scenes that showed Grace Kelly and Marilyn Monroe.

(Laughter) So to anybody that viewed this thing, it looked like I was spending my time there fantasizing about these — while Charlie was talking to me. (Laughter) So even television isn’t safe. (Laughter)

23. 伯克希尔如何获得忠诚的股东

沃伦·巴菲特: 第11个问题。

观众: 您好,我叫Kip Johann-Berkel,来自马萨诸塞州波士顿。首先,感谢二位的文章、年度股东大会,甚至查理·罗斯的采访——(巴菲特笑)——它们帮助我作为投资者和作为一个人都得到了成长。在我看来,伯克希尔拥有所有上市公司或共同基金中最好、最忠诚的股东。你们如何吸引和留住股东基础,特别是当许多导致证券错误定价的行为倾向也导致股东”脚快”(轻易进出)的时候?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,关于有价证券的有趣之处在于,基本上任何人都可以买。你可能会选择加入某人购买麦当劳加盟店、农场、公寓楼之类的东西,但如果你经营一家上市公司,你知道,你的股东可以是任何人,从奥萨马·本·拉登到教皇。我的意思是,他们选择了——不是你选择他们,而是他们选择你。现在,如果你想要一个与你同步的股东群体,我认为重要的是——在我看来——重要的是你要让他们确切知道你想经营什么样的机构。我们有年度报告,有电视采访,有各种方式向人们传达伯克希尔是什么样的地方。对有些人来说,这说”进来”,对另一些人来说,这说”别进来”。菲尔·费舍尔在20世纪60年代初写了一本关于投资的伟大著作,他这样描述这种情况。

他说:“你看,你可以开一家餐厅,上面写着’法国菜’,如果你里面确实有法国菜,你知道,人们会来——你会得到满意的回头客。你可以开另一家卖汉堡的。但你不能做的是,在外面招牌上写汉堡,里面却端出法国菜。“所以很多公司试图向所有人承诺一切。他们的投资者关系部门告诉他们,任何他们能引起兴趣的股东,他们都想要。我们想要的是思维方式与我们一致的人。我们认为,总的来说,我们不会让他们太失望。但如果我们的股东中有一群人认为下个季度的收益会因为某种原因增长10%,而那就是他们持有股票的原因,我们会让很多人失望。我们的人生目标不是花时间与那些会对我们失望的人打交道。如果我们发出了错误的广告,那是我们的错。

所以我们努力宣传我们是什么,然后我们努力兑现承诺。我确实认为,在大型上市公司中,我们拥有全世界最好的股东群体。我认为这是因为我们有这样一群人,他们基本上把买入一家企业视为多年来成为我们的合伙人,他们知道我们会像对待合伙人一样对待他们。反过来,他们给了我们很大的安慰,让我们拥有稳定的股东基础,并对经营整个公司有良好的感觉。查理?

查理·芒格: 嗯,这里发生的事情在某种程度上是偶然的。沃伦和我最初开始为我们的家人和朋友投资,那些在我们年轻且不为人知时信任我们的人,我们当然产生了深厚的感情。我们从这个基础出发,逐渐演变为控制上市公司,所以我们倾向于把我们的股东,包括新股东,视为家人。这不是装出来的,这就是我们对待你们的方式。其他人做不到这一点,因为他们是以不同的方式演变到他们所处的情况的。如果你是一个CEO,面对普通的机构投资者,他们只关心自己未来六个月的投资组合管理看起来不错,你会发现很难爱你的股东。他们有点像一股敌对的力量,对你施加不合理的期望。所以我不认为沃伦和我因为我们与股东关系更好而值得如此大的赞誉。我们是以完全不同的方式成长起来的。不过,当我们看到这是件这么好的事情、如此令人满足时,我们确实有足够的理智坚持下去。

但我们不是——我们是偶然进入这个局面的,不是吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,我们是偶然进入的,而且我们还很幸运,我们没有投资者关系部门想要我们出去炒作。

查理·芒格: 但那是有意为之的。

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,是的。(笑声)我在几十家公司看到过他们的运作,我以这样或那样的方式参与过。这个想法真的很荒谬——你出去迎合那些人的期望,他们期望你通过经营做不到的事情,但也许你可以通过会计手段在短期内做到。这导致了最糟糕的行为。最后,有人会拥有你所有的股票,你知道。股东名单上的股票不可能空着。所以为什么不找一群会与你同步、会坚持和你在一起的人呢?他们同步的方式就是如果你相当准确地告诉他们你期望什么,你打算如何实现它,并在你犯错时告诉他们,所有这些。

查理·芒格: 但我们可能不应该过分批评那些以不同方式成长、面对不同股东面孔的人。如果我们以同样的方式崛起,我们是否会以某种类似的方式结束,这完全不清楚。

沃伦·巴菲特: 当然。是的。所以接下来五到十分钟我们就不批评了,然后再回来。(笑声)

原文

23. How Berkshire gets loyal shareholders

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 11.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, my name is Kip Johann-Berkel from Boston, Massachusetts. First, thank you both for your writings, annual shareholder meetings, and even the Charlie Rose interviews — (Buffett laughs) — as they have helped me grow both as an investor and as a person. Berkshire has, in my opinion, the best and most loyal shareholders of any publicly-traded company or mutual fund. How do you attract and retain a shareholder base, particularly when many of the same behavioral tendencies that produce mispriced securities also produce fleet-footed shareholders? Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, the interesting thing about marketable securities is that, basically, anybody can buy them. You might elect to join somebody in buying a McDonald’s franchise or a farm, or apartment house, or something, but if you’re running a public company, you know, you can have anybody from, you know, Osama Bin Laden, you know, to the Pope as your shareholder. I mean, they elected — you don’t elect them, they elect you. Now, if you want a shareholder body that is going to be in sync with you, it’s important — in my view — it’s important that you let them know exactly what sort of institution you plan to run. And we’ve got the annual reports, we’ve got television interviews, we’ve got various ways of conveying to people what kind of a place Berkshire is. And to some, that says, “Come in,” and to others it says, “Stay out.” Phil Fisher wrote a great book on investing back in the very early 1960s and he described the situation this way.

He said, “Look it, you can have a restaurant and it can say ‘French food’ and if you have French food inside, you know, people are going — you’re going to get a satisfied and returning clientele. And you can have another one that says hamburgers. But what you can’t do is have hamburgers on the outside on the marquee and deliver French food inside.” And so many companies sort of try and promise everything to everybody. Their investor relations department tells them that any shareholder they can get interested, you know, they want. We want people who think the way we do. And we think, on balance, we won’t disappoint them too much. But if we get a bunch of people who think that the earnings next quarter are going to be up 10 percent for some reason, and that’s the reason they own the stock, we’re going to have a lot of disappointed people. And our goal in life is not to spend our time associating with people who are going to be disappointed with us. It’s our fault if we give out the wrong advertisement.

So we try to advertise what we are, and then we try to deliver on that. And I do think we have the best group of shareholders in the world, you know, among large publicly-traded companies. And I think it’s because we’ve got people that basically look into buying a business, becoming our partners over the years, and they know we’ll treat them like partners. And they, in turn, give us a lot of comfort in having a stable shareholder base and a good feeling about just running the whole place. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, what happened here is, to some extent, an accident. Warren and I started out investing money for our families and friends, and the people who trusted us when we were young and unknown, of course, we developed a strong affection for. And we morphed into controlling public companies from that base, and so we tend to regard our shareholders, including the new ones, as family. And that’s not put on, that’s the way we regard you. Other people can’t do that because they morphed into their situation in a different way. And if you were a CEO and dealt with the average institutional investor, who is interested in having his portfolio management look good the next six months, you’d find it hard to love your shareholders. They’re sort of a hostile force that are putting unreasonable expectations on you. And so I don’t think Warren and I deserve such wonderful credit for the fact that we have better relations with our shareholders. We came up in a totally different way. Now, we did have enough sense, when we saw that it was such a good thing and so satisfying, that we stayed with it.

But weren’t we — we got into this by accident, didn’t we?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we got in by accident, and we also were blessed with the fact that we did not have an investor relations department that wanted us to go out and pump up.

CHARLIE MUNGER: But that was on purpose.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, yeah. (Laughter) I have seen them in operation at dozens of companies, I’ve been involved in one way or another. And it is really ridiculous, the idea that you go out and try and cater to the expectations of people that are expecting you to do things you can’t do by operations, but maybe you can do by accounting for a short period of time. It leads to the worst behavior. And in the end, somebody’s going to own all your shares, you know. There’s no way that shares remain empty, you know, in the shareholder list. So why not get a bunch of people who are going to stick with you who are in sync? And the way they’re going to be in sync is if you told them rather accurately what you expect, how you expect to do it, and tell them when you make mistakes, all of that.

CHARLIE MUNGER: But we probably shouldn’t be as critical of people who came up a different way dealing with a different shareholder face. It’s not at all clear that we wouldn’t have ended up somewhat the same way if we’d had the same manner of rising.

WARREN BUFFETT: Sure. Yeah. So we’ll give up being critical for the next five or 10 minutes, and then we’ll go back. (Laughter)

24. 低利率正在伤害被吓出股市的人们

沃伦·巴菲特: 卡罗尔?

卡罗尔·卢米斯: 非常简短的问题。请评论我们现有的、可能还会持续的零利率政策的含义。

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯,对于任何把投资放在短期货币工具上的人来说,这非常艰难。你知道,如果你目前在一些货币市场基金上获得0.1%的收益,如果你从哥伦布登陆时就开始这样做,并且不交任何税,到现在你差不多能把钱翻倍了。(笑声)真的——我是说,人们在谈论宽松的货币政策,但对那些持有货币的人来说并不那么轻松。这不会永远持续下去,但对那些靠固定收入的人来说可能感觉像是永远。我非常同情他们。基本上,很多人,在2008年底世界看起来要崩溃的时候变得恐惧。他们付出的代价确实是——我认识一些像这样的人——就回报而言很糟糕,他们的购买力会被侵蚀。但这会在某个时候结束。我不知道它会如何结束,但我不想做美联储主席或财政部长。

从未有人问过我,但也许这就是为什么我说我不想做。但是——我们不会——运行巨额预算赤字并试图实施非常宽松的货币政策不会永远有效。如果——当我们遇到麻烦时,责任不应归于美联储,责任应归于国会。(掌声)

查理·芒格: 在某种意义上,我们处境的现实几乎令人沮丧地可笑。股票上涨是因为以安全方式放贷的回报如此糟糕,当然,一个答案是这不可能持续。在这种情况下,股票的价值相对而言就不会那么突出了。当然,如果它持续下去,就像在日本那样,我们也不会喜欢,因为那将意味着我们陷入某种可怕的停滞。这是一个非常愉快的消息。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 极低利率——短期利率——对其他一切事物价值施加的压力,再怎么强调也不为过。我的意思是,人们把他们的钱放在0.1%的收益上的原因是他们对其他一切都感到恐惧。但随着他们对其他一切的恐惧消退——就像过去两年那样——推高股价、推高房地产价格的压力是巨大的。当然,与这些事情有关的人是明白这一点的。但我认为你不应该低估过去一年股价上涨在多大程度上是人们把资金放在短期货币工具中所经历的痛苦的结果。除非他们对世界感到极度恐惧,否则他们会被逼到其他投资中去,我认为我们已经看到了很多这种情况,我们还会看到当利率确实上升时会发生什么,如果它们上升的话。

原文

24. Low interest rates are hurting people scared out of stocks

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol?

CAROL LOOMIS: Very short question. Please comment on the implications of our existing, and perhaps continuing, zero percent interest rate.

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it’s very tough for anybody that’s got their investment in short-term money. You know, if you’re getting a tenth of a percent on some money market fund currently that if you’d started doing that when Columbus landed, and didn’t pay any taxes, you’d have almost doubled your money by now. (Laughter) It’s really — I mean, people talk about easy money policies, but it isn’t so easy on the people who’ve got the money. It won’t go on forever, but it may seem like forever to people that are on fixed income. I’m very sympathetic with them. Basically they got, many of them, became fearful when the world was looking like it was collapsing in late 2008. And the price they pay is really — I know some people like that that are — it’s terrible in terms of returns and their purchasing power will be eaten away. But this will end at some point. I don’t know how it will end, but I would not like to be chairman of the Fed or secretary of the treasury.

Nobody’s ever asked me, but maybe that’s why I say I wouldn’t want to do it. But the — we will — it won’t work forever to run huge budget deficits and try and have very easy monetary policy. And when — if we do run into trouble, the blame should not go to the Fed, the blame should go to Congress. (Applause)

CHARLIE MUNGER: In some sense, the reality of our situation is almost amusingly depressing. Stocks are up because the return from loaning your money out at interest in a safe way is so lousy, and of course, one answer is that can’t last. In which case, stocks won’t be as pronounced a value, relatively speaking. And of course, if it does last, as it has in Japan, we won’t like that either because it will mean we’re mired in some horrible stagnation. This is a very cheery message. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: The pressure that is exerted by extremely low interest rates — short-term rates — on the value of everything else, it’s hard to overestimate that. I mean, the reason people have their money out at one-tenth of 1 percent is that they’re afraid of everything else. But as they’re being afraid of everything else abates, as it has over the last couple years, the pressure to push stock prices up, push real estate prices back up, it’s enormous. And of course, that’s understood by people who have something to do with those matters. But I don’t think you should underestimate the degree to which the last year of stock prices has been a result of the agony that people are being put through that keep their money in short-term money instruments. Unless they’re terrified of the world, they get pushed into other investments, and I think we’ve seen a lot of that, and we’ll see what happens when money rates do go up, if they do.

25. 通过提问来评估企业

沃伦·巴菲特: 第12个问题。

观众: 您好,我叫Jeff Colvette,来自堪萨斯州奥拉西。我在1999年开始投资,正好在科技泡沫之前,不幸的是,在我了解评估企业价值和应用安全边际的重要性之前,我先学会了买入持有和不为市场价格波动担忧。所以,就像查理说的,我一开始就遭遇了巨大的失败。并且——

查理·芒格: 欢迎加入俱乐部。(笑声)

观众: 谢谢,我现在感觉好多了。这就引出了我的问题。我似乎已经读了所有伯克希尔的报告以及所有我能读到的关于二位的资料,感谢你们举办这些精彩的会议。但似乎归结为一些简单的事情:评估企业价值和应用安全边际。所以我的问题是,对于如何越来越擅长评估公司,你们有什么方法推荐?

沃伦·巴菲特: 这是一个非常好的问题。就我自己而言,你知道,我开始时完全不了解如何评估公司。本·格雷厄姆教了我一种评估某种类型公司的方法,这种方法被证明是成功的,只是这类公司的范围枯竭了。但尽管如此——它几乎可以保证不失败,但并不能保证这些东西会继续可得。查理教了我很多关于持久竞争优势和真正一流企业的价值。但随着时间的推移,我对各种类型的企业学到了更多。但你会惊讶于有多少企业我觉得自己并不完全理解。最重要的是你的能力圈有多大,而是知道边界在哪里。你不必是90%、80%、70%或50%的企业的专家。但你确实需要对那些你实际投入资金的企业有所了解,如果那只是整个宇宙中很小的一部分,那仍然不是致命问题。

我认为如果你想想你会为一个麦当劳三明治付多少钱,你就会——想想你家乡奥拉西的企业。你想买入哪一家?你认为你能理解哪一家的经济状况?你认为哪一家10年或20年后还会存在?你认为哪一家很难被竞争?就是不断地问自己关于企业的问题。与其他人谈论它们。随着时间的推移,你会扩展你的知识。并且永远记住安全边际。我认为你的态度基本上是正确,因为你认识到自己的局限性,这在投资中极其重要。你会找到可以做的事情。六七年前——也许没那么久——六七年前,当我研究韩国股票时,我从未想过韩国股票会成为我要买的东西。但我看了一下那边,我可以看到许多企业符合安全边际测试。

于是我就分散投资了,因为我对任何一个具体公司了解得不够多,但我知道一组20个会表现得非常好,即使其中可能有一个是骗子经营的,一两个可能遇到我没有预料到的竞争,因为它们实在是太便宜了。这有点像古老的格雷厄姆方法。你会时不时发现机会,美妙之处在于你不需要找到很多。查理?

查理·芒格: 很明显,如果你想在某个有竞争性的领域变得擅长,你必须大量思考,大量学习,大量练习。在这个领域的世界构造方式中,你必须不断学习,因为世界在不断变化,你的竞争对手也在不断学习。所以你每天早晨起来,努力在晚上睡觉时比你起床时聪明一点点。如果你长期坚持这样做——并积累一些经验,无论好坏,当你努力掌握你试图做的事情时——这样做的人几乎从未彻底失败过。他们可能会有一段运气不佳的糟糕时期。但很少人这样做了却失败。如果你有正确的心态,你可能会缓慢上升,但你一定会上升。

沃伦·巴菲特: 查理,你在学校上过任何商科课程吗?

查理·芒格: 一门都没有。我学过会计。

沃伦·巴菲特: 你是什么时候开始评估企业的,你是怎么做的?

查理·芒格: 在我还是个小男孩的时候。(笑声)我还记得,我会到奥马哈俱乐部去,那里有一位老先生每天早上10:30左右到奥马哈俱乐部。他显然几乎不做任何工作,却相当富有。

沃伦·巴菲特: 他成了你的榜样。(笑声)

查理·芒格: 是的。但他让我很好奇,作为一个小男孩。我问我父亲:“他到底是怎么做到的?“他说:“查理,“他说,“他的生意几乎没有任何竞争。他收集并处理死马。“这是通过一种策略避免竞争的例子。你从小就不断向现实问这样的问题,你会逐渐学会。你难道不是在做同样的事情吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的,谢天谢地他超越了他最初的见解。(笑)

查理·芒格: 我注意到,挺有意思的——我小时候那些企业的统治者,奥马哈的很多企业,很多破产了,很多在困境中以低廉价格卖掉了。而一些崛起的人,比如基威特,从微小的起点开始,当时没人认为他们是那个时代伟大的荣耀。我认为生活就是这样。要想接近顶尖很难,一旦达到,保持任何位置也很难。但我认为你可以预测基威特可能会赢。他们更关心把事情做对。他们更关心避免麻烦。他们对自己施加了更多纪律。

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯,如果你很了解那个人,你会押注的,对吧?

查理·芒格: 什么?

沃伦·巴菲特: 如果你了解那个人。

查理·芒格: 我不会押注任何我已经认识并且已经富有的人。但我会押注皮特·基威特。他姐姐教过我数学,不,一半荷兰一半德国血统,你知道,这是一种坚韧的文化。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 这就是——各位刚听到了。一半荷兰,一半德国。(笑声)

查理·芒格: 嗯,但是——

沃伦·巴菲特: 出去找这样的人吧。(笑声)

查理·芒格: 嗯,推荐这个的人叫芒格。(笑声)无论如何——不——我不认为这是——我只是自然而然地在做那个。什么在起作用,什么在失败,为什么起作用,为什么失败?如果你有这种心态,你会逐渐学习。如果你没有这种心态,我帮不了你。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 如果你跟着皮特·基威特十年,你永远不会看到他做任何愚蠢的事,对吧?

查理·芒格: 哦是的。这太——

沃伦·巴菲特: 就是避免做蠢事。你真的不需要很聪明,但你知道,你必须避免那些几乎是明显的错误。但我认为,就基本要素而言,你走在了正确的道路上,知道自己的局限性,但仍然寻求了解更多不同类型的企业。我觉得查理,当他做律师时,任何来找他的客户,查理都会像自己拥有那个企业一样思考。他可能通常认为自己比那个实际拥有企业的人——也就是他的客户——更了解那个地方。(笑)但我记得大约50年前和他谈话时,他会开始谈论贝克斯菲尔德或类似地方的卡特彼勒经销商。他无法看着一个企业而不思考其基本经济状况。那个人卡特彼勒生意做得怎么样?(笑)

查理·芒格: 嗯,他以一个完全荒谬的价格卖给了一个愚蠢的石油公司。(笑声)他的东西不值他拿到的一半。

沃伦·巴菲特: 但他们有一个概念和战略。

查理·芒格: 他们有一个概念和战略,结果证明他们还有顾问。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的。(笑)

原文

25. Valuing businesses by asking questions

WARREN BUFFETT: Twelve.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, my name is Jeff Colvette (PH) and I’m from Olathe, Kansas. I got started in investing in 1999, right before the big tech bubble, and unfortunately I learned buy and hold and don’t fret about market price fluctuations before I learned the importance of valuing a business and applying a margin of safety. So, as Charlie said, I got my feet wet with huge failure right away. And —

CHARLIE MUNGER: Join the club. (Laughter)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you, I don’t feel so bad now. So that leads to my question. It seems like I’ve read all the Berkshire reports and all the reading I can do about you two, and I thank you for these wonderful meetings. But it seems like it boils down to some simple things, valuing a business and applying a margin of safety. So my question is, what do you recommend for an approach to getting better and better at valuing companies?

WARREN BUFFETT: That was a very, very good question. And in my own case, you know, I started out without knowing anything about valuing companies. And Ben Graham taught me a way to value a certain type of company that would prove successful, except the universe of those companies dried up. But nevertheless — it was almost a guarantee against failure, but it was not a guarantee that these things would continue to be available. Charlie taught me a lot about the value of a durable competitive advantage, and a really firstclass business. But over time, I’ve learned more about various types of businesses. But you’d be amazed how many businesses I don’t feel that I understand well. The biggest thing is not how big your circle of competence is, but knowing where the perimeter is. You don’t have to be an expert on 90 percent of the businesses, or 80 percent, or 70, or 50. But you do have to know something about the ones that you actually put your money into, and if that’s a very small part of the universe, that still is not a killer.

And I think if you think about what you would pay for a McDonald’s sandwich, you think you would pay for — you know, think about the businesses in your own hometown of Olathe. Which would you like to buy into? Which do you think you could understand their economics? Which do you think will be around 10 or 20 years from now? Which do you think it would be very tough to compete with? Just keep asking yourself questions about businesses. Talk with other people about them. You will extend your knowledge over time. And always remember that margin of safety. And I think you basically have the right attitude because you recognize your limitations, and that’s enormously important in this business. You will find things to do. Six or seven years ago — maybe not that long — six or seven years ago, when I was looking at Korean stocks, for example, I never had any idea that Korean stocks would be something that I would be buying. But I looked over there, and I could see that there were a number of businesses that met the margin of safety test.

And there I diversified, because I didn’t know that much about any specific one, but I knew that a package of 20 was going to work out very well, even if a crook might run one of them, and a couple might run into competition I didn’t anticipate, because they were so cheap. And that was sort of the old Graham approach. You will find opportunities from time to time, and the beauty of it is you don’t have to find very many of them. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well obviously, if you want to get good at something which is competitive, you have to think about it a lot, and learn a lot, and practice doing it a lot. And the way the world is constructed in this field, you have to keep learning, because the world keeps changing and your competitors keep learning. So you just have to get up each morning and try and go to bed that night a little wiser than you were when you got up. And if you keep doing that for a long time — and accumulate some experience, good and bad, as you try and master what you’re trying to do — people who do that almost never fail utterly. They may have a bad period when luck goes against them or something. But very few people have ever failed with that. If you have the right temperament, you may rise slowly but you’re sure to rise.

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie, did you take any business courses in school?

CHARLIE MUNGER: None. I took accounting.

WARREN BUFFETT: And when did you start valuing businesses and how did you go about it?

CHARLIE MUNGER: When I was a little boy. (Laughter) I can remember, I would come down to the Omaha Club, and there was an old gentleman who hit the Omaha Club about 10:30 every morning. He obviously did almost no work, and yet was quite prosperous.

WARREN BUFFETT: He became your ideal. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. But he made me very curious as a little boy. I said to my father, “How in the hell does he do that?” And he said, “Charlie,” he said, “A business where he enjoys practically no competition. He gathers up and renders dead horses.” That was an example of avoiding competition by one stratagem. And you keep asking questions like that of reality, starting at a young age, you gradually learn. And weren’t you doing the same thing?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, thankfully he went beyond his original insight there. (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: I noticed, it was rather interesting — you take the rulers of the businesses when I was a little boy, an awful lot of those businesses, in Omaha, a lot of those businesses went broke, a lot of them sold out at modest prices under distress. And some of the people who rose, like Kiewit, from small beginnings, nobody thought of as the great glories of that early time. And I think that’s kind of the way life is. It’s hard to get anywhere near the top, and it’s hard to hold any position once you’ve attained it. But I think you can predict that Kiewit was likely to win. They cared more about doing it right. They cared more about avoiding trouble. They put more discipline on themselves.

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, if you knew the individual well, you would have bet, right?

CHARLIE MUNGER: What?

WARREN BUFFETT: If you knew the individual.

CHARLIE MUNGER: I would not have bet on any of the people I knew who were already wealthy. But I would have bet on Pete Kiewit. His sister taught me math, and no, half-Dutch, half-German, you know, this is a tough culture. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: There’s your — you just heard it folks. Half-Dutch, half-German. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well but —

WARREN BUFFETT: Go out looking for them. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the man who’s recommending this is named Munger. (Laughter) Anyway, the — no — I don’t think it’s that — I was just automatically doing that. What was working, what was failing, why was it working, why was it failing? If you have that temperament, you are gradually going to learn. And if you don’t have that temperament, I can’t help you. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: If you’d followed Pete Kiewit around for 10 years, you never would have seen him do anything dumb, right?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Oh yeah. It’s so —

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s avoiding the dumb thing. You really don’t have to be brilliant, but, you know, you have to avoid just sort of what almost seem the obvious mistakes. But I would say that you’re on the right track back there, in terms of having the basic fundamentals, knowing your limitations, but still seeking to learn more about various kinds of businesses. Charlie, I think, when he practiced law, any client that came in Charlie was thinking about that business as if he owned the place. And he probably generally thought he knew more about the place than the guy that actually owned it, who was his client. (Laughs) But I remember talking to him, you know, 50 years ago, and he would start talking about Caterpillar dealerships in Bakersfield or something of the sort. He was incapable of looking at a business without thinking about the fundamental economics of it. How’d that guy do with the Caterpillar deal? (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, he sold it for a perfectly ridiculous price to a dumb oil company. (Laughter) It wasn’t worth half what he got for it.

WARREN BUFFETT: But they had a concept and a strategy.

CHARLIE MUNGER: They had a concept and a strategy, and turned out they had consultants. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughs)

26. 资本回报率最高的公司

沃伦·巴菲特: 贝基?

贝基·奎克: 这个问题来自南达科他州阿伯丁的Carson Mitchell,他问你们两位:“伯克希尔哪项业务的资本回报率最高?地球上任何一家公司中哪家资本回报率最高?“他补充说:“附注,我本想坐火车来,但谷物车厢里没有座位。“(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 有两种看法。如果你谈论的是经营业务所需的资本,而不是我们为业务支付的价格——我的意思是,如果我们买下一个好的业务——你可以经营可口可乐公司——假设你有装瓶系统——你可以用零资本经营它。现在,如果你花1000亿美元买下它,你可以把那看作你的资本,也可以看作基本资本。当我们看什么是好生意时,我们是用业务实际需要的资本来定义的。它是否对我们来说是好的投资,取决于我们最终为之支付的价格。有些业务是在负资本下运营的。卡罗尔在《财富》杂志工作。你知道,任何伟大的杂志都是在负资本下运营的。我的意思是,订户预付费用,几乎没有固定资产,应收账款不多,库存为零。所以杂志业务——我猜《人物》杂志或《体育画报》是在负资本下运营的,尤其是《人物》赚了很多钱。

所以有些业务就是这样。我们有一家叫蓝筹印花公司的企业,我们提前拿到了浮存金,实际上是靠相当可观的负资本运营的。但有很多伟大的企业需要的资本非常非常少。苹果不需要那么多资本,你知道。最好的企业当然是那些可以变得非常大却不需要资本的企业。喜诗糖果是一个很棒的业务,需要的资本非常少,但我们不能让人们每天吃十磅盒装巧克力。

查理·芒格: 除了这里。

沃伦·巴菲特: 我们希望如此。(笑)一般来说,伟大的消费品业务需要的资本相对较少。那些人们提前付钱给你的业务,比如杂志订阅、保险,你知道,你在使用客户的资本。我们喜欢这类业务,但当然,世界上其他人也喜欢,所以它们在收购时会变得非常有竞争性。举个例子,我们有一个由Cathy Baron Tamraz经营得非常好的业务,叫做商业通讯社。商业通讯社不需要大量资本。它有应收账款等等,但它是一种服务型业务,许多服务型业务和消费型业务需要的资本很少。当它们成功时,你知道,它们真的很了不起。查理?

查理·芒格: 我没什么要补充的,但无论如何,公式从未改变。

沃伦·巴菲特: 如果你可以拥有世界上的一家企业,你会选什么,查理?(笑声)我希望我们已经拥有了它们。

查理·芒格: 你我几十年前因为讨论这样一个话题而惹过麻烦。

沃伦·巴菲特: 没错。(笑)

查理·芒格: 我想我不会再回到这个话题了。

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的。(笑声)第13号——

查理·芒格: 如果你说出某个拥有不可思议定价权的企业,你说的就是一个垄断或接近垄断的企业。

沃伦·巴菲特: 当然。

查理·芒格: 我认为我们坐在这里说出我们最钦佩的业务,而其他人认为那是垄断,这不太明智。

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的。我们继续。(笑声)

原文

26. Companies with the best return on capital

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky?

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Carson Mitchell in Aberdeen, South Dakota, who asks both of you, “What business has had the best return on capital for Berkshire, and what business of any on earth has had the best return on capital?” And he adds, “PS, I would have come by rail but there are no seats in the grain rail cars.” (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: There’s two ways of looking at it. If you talk about the capital necessary to run the business, as opposed to what we might have paid for the business — I mean, if we buy a wonderful business — you could run the Coca-Cola Company —assuming you had the bottling systems — you could run it with no capital. Now, if you buy it for $100 billion, you can look at that as your capital or you can look at the basic capital. When we look at what’s a good business, we’re defining it in terms of the capital actually needed in the business. Whether it’s a good investment for us depends on how much we pay for that in the end. There are a number of businesses that operate on negative capital. Carol’s with Fortune magazine. You know, any of the great magazines operate with negative capital. I mean, the subscribers pay in advance, there are no fixed assets to speak of, and the receivables are not that much, the inventory is nothing. So a magazine business — my guess is that People magazine operates, or Sports Illustrated operates, with negative capital, and particularly People makes a lot of money.

So there are certain businesses. Well, we had a company called Blue Chip Stamps where we got the float ahead of time, and operated with really substantial negative capital. But there are a lot of great businesses that need very, very little capital. Apple doesn’t need that much capital, you know. The best ones, of course, are the ones that can get very large while needing no capital. See’s is a wonderful business, needs very little capital, but we can’t get people eating ten pounds of boxed chocolates every day.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Except here.

WARREN BUFFETT: We want to. (Laughs) Generally, the great consumer businesses need relatively little capital. The businesses where people pay you in advance, you know, magazine subscriptions being a case, insurance being a case, you know, you’re using your customer’s capital. And we like those kind of businesses, but of course, so does the rest of the world, so they can become very competitive in buying them. We have a business, for example, that’s run wonderfully by Cathy Baron Tamraz, called Business Wire. Business Wire does not require a lot of capital. It has receivables and everything, but it is a service-type business and many of the service-type businesses and consumer-type businesses require little capital. And when they get to be successful, you know, they can really be something. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add, but at any rate, the formula never changes.

WARREN BUFFETT: If you could own one business in the world, what would it be, Charlie? (Laughter) I hope we already own them, myself.

CHARLIE MUNGER: You and I got in trouble by addressing such a subject many decades ago.

WARREN BUFFETT: That’s right. (Laughs)

CHARLIE MUNGER: And I don’t think I’ll come back to it.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. (Laughter) Number 13 —

CHARLIE MUNGER: If you name some business that has incredible pricing power, you’re talking about a business that’s a monopoly or a near monopoly.

WARREN BUFFETT: Sure.

CHARLIE MUNGER: And I don’t think it’s very smart for us to sit up here naming our most admired business or something, that other people regard as a monopoly.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. We’ll move right along. (Laughter)

27. 电话没响,但我们仍然准备收购

沃伦·巴菲特: 让我们看看,我们做了第13个问题吗?不,我想没有,那又在另一个房间了。有人在吗?

观众: 是的,巴菲特先生、芒格先生,从分会场向你们问好。我叫Glenn Tongue,来自纽约。感谢二位在经济危机期间杰出的领导。由于你们的努力,我们在多个方面都更加富有。我想问伯克希尔的增长,特别是你们的收购前景和胃口。电话响了吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 电话在伯克希尔不经常响,你知道。部分原因是——嗯,我们在年度报告中列出了我们在寻找什么的标准,我们不是在寻找越来越大的东西。所以当我们开始说我们想收购那些税前至少赚7500万到1亿美元的企业时,这就过滤掉了大量的电话。我想说的是,你知道,如果我们一年接到两三个——三四个认真的电话,大致符合我们的标准,看起来有可能,那就算是好年头了,我喜欢这样。我不认为在出现可能让我们感兴趣的事情的频率上有任何重大变化。答案就是,就兴趣而言,我们和以前一样感兴趣。我的意思是,我们为BNSF开出了一张大支票并发行了股票。但如果周一早上我的电话响了,有个大交易,我会非常高兴。我们会想办法做到。查理?

查理·芒格: 是的,令我惊讶的是,我们在收购理想的企业方面如此成功。人类的厌恶情绪帮助了我们,因为很多卖给我们的人都非常聪明,以至于他们对几乎所有其他事情都感到厌恶。他们不想卖给某个以费用为导向的收购系统,这种系统不关心他们的员工或他们的业务。他们最终决定要加入我们这家,而不想加入其他替代选择。当然,这对我们来说是极好的。我们有一个筛选机制,在某种程度上保护我们免受错误类型的人的影响。很少有人有这种特别的——我们得到一些不会卖给任何其他人的人的东西。这真的很特别。这种情况发生了多少次?

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯——

查理·芒格: 很多次。

沃伦·巴菲特: 发生过,而且是在重要交易上。有一个我之前提到过的,所以我可以提名字。当我收到ISCAR的来信时,我以前从未听说过ISCAR,也没听说过给我写信的Eitan Wertheimer,但他基本上告诉我,而且说得相当具体,他们要么想卖给伯克希尔·哈撒韦,要么就不想卖给任何人。我们见了面,做成了交易。还有另一个人——我不会确切定义时间——他来了,他考虑这件事大约有一年了,关于这个业务,他建立了几十年。他说:“有三种可能。一种是卖给竞争对手。“他说:“他们会立刻考虑可以裁掉这里的哪些人,把总部搬走”等等,他们会拆毁他花了30年左右建立起来的东西。

他决定不想那样做,尽管对竞争对手来说可能比其他人更值钱,因为情况往往如此。然后他考虑卖给杠杆收购公司——现在会自称是私募股权公司——他决定不希望他的地方基本上是一块肉,过不了几年就会被转卖。他真正想要的是找到一个永久之家。所以他说:“我来找你,不是因为你那么有吸引力。“他说:“你只是唯一剩下的人了。“(笑声)于是我们买下了那个业务。这种情况时不时会发生,是偶然的。当某人生活中发生了什么事,他们决定真正想要确保一个永久的家。可能是因为家庭不和。可能有一半打的原因。也许有人想变现,因为他们想捐出很多钱。

但这种事情会周期性地出现,我们是得到电话的逻辑选择,我们会接到电话。但没有什么我们能做的来加速这个过程或做类似的事情。当它发生时,我们准备好行动。我的意思是,如果我接到一个电话,是一个100亿美元的交易,在周一,而且我喜欢它,我会说是的。(笑)然后我再想办法怎么做。

查理·芒格: 是的,我认为这还没结束。实际上,可能比早期慢一些。但考虑到我们现在都比那时富有得多,这也不算太坏。

原文

27. Phone hasn’t been ringing, but we’re still ready to buy

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s see, have we done number 13? No, I don’t think so, that’s in the other room again. Anybody there?

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, greetings from the breakout room. My name is Glenn Tongue from New York. I would like to thank you both for your exemplary stewardship through the economic crisis. We are all wealthier in several ways as a result of your efforts. I’d like to ask about Berkshire’s growth, specifically your acquisition outlook and appetite. Has the phone been ringing?

WARREN BUFFETT: The phone doesn’t ring very often at Berkshire, you know. That’s partly because — well, we set out our criteria in the annual report for what we’re looking for, and we’re not looking for larger and larger things. So when we start saying that we want to buy businesses that earn 75 or 100 million, at a minimum, before tax, that weeds out a lot of phone calls. And I would say that, you know, if we get a couple of — three or four serious phone calls a year that sort of meet our criteria that look like they might be a possibility, that’s a good year, I like that. I don’t think there’s been any major change in the frequency that something comes along that might interest us. The answer is, in terms of being interested, we’re as interested as ever. I mean, we wrote a big check and issued shares in connection with BNSF. But I would love it if Monday morning my phone rings with some big deal. We’ll figure out a way to do it. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, it’s amazing to me that we have been as successful as we have been in buying desirable places. And it’s human revulsion that has helped us, because many of the people who sell to us are so smart that they’re revolted by almost everything else. They don’t want to sell into some fee-driven buying system that doesn’t care about their employees or their business. And they finally decide they want to join this one, they don’t want to join the alternatives. And of course, that’s marvelous for us. We’ve got a screening device out there that is protecting us, to some extent, from the wrong sort of people. And very few people have this particular — We get offered things by people who would not sell to anybody else. That is really peculiar. And it’s happened what, how many times?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well —

CHARLIE MUNGER: A lot.

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s happened, and on important ones. There’s one I’ve mentioned before, so I can mention the name. When I heard from ISCAR, and I’d never heard of ISCAR before, I’d never heard of Eitan Wertheimer, who wrote me, but he basically told me and made it quite specific, they either wanted to sell to Berkshire Hathaway or they didn’t want to sell it to anybody. And we met and we made a deal. And there was another person — I won’t even define exactly the time period — but he came in and he’d been thinking about it for about a year on this business, and he’d built it over many decades. And he said, “There were three possibilities. One was to sell it to a competitor.” And he said, “They would have ideas immediately about all the people they could take out of this place and move the headquarters,” and everything, and they would dismantle something that he’d spent 30 years or so building.

And he decided that he didn’t want to do that, even though it was probably worth more to a competitor, because that’s often the case, than to anybody else. And then he looked at selling to a leverage buyout firm — and now would call itself a private equity firm — and he decided he did not want his place being, basically, a piece of meat that would be resold in not that many years. He really wanted to find a permanent home. So he said, “When I come to you, I don’t come to you because you’re so damned attractive.” He said, “You’re the only guy left.” (Laughter) And we bought the business. So that happens from time to time, and it’s accidental. It’s when something happens in someone’s life that they decide they really want to assure a permanent home. It may be because the family isn’t getting along. It may be, you know, a half a dozen reasons. Maybe somebody wants to monetize it because they want to give away a lot of money.

But periodically that will come up, and we are a logical place to get the call, and we will get the calls. But there’s not much we can do to accelerate the process or do anything of the sort. We are ready to act when it happens. I mean, if I get a call, and it’s a $10 billion deal, on Monday, and I like it, I will say yes. (Laughs) And then I’ll figure out how we do it.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I don’t think it’s over. It may be, in fact, it will be, slower than it was in the early days. But that’s not so bad, considering how much richer we all are than we were then.

28. 伯克希尔未来的大问题

沃伦·巴菲特: 安德鲁?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金: 因为我想这可能是最后几个问题之一,来自马萨诸塞州韦纳姆的股东Peter Brotchie写道:“感谢沃伦和查理去年改进了问答环节。""沿着这个思路,有没有一些重要的问题,伯克希尔的财务状况或业务没有被问到让你感到惊讶?如果是这样,如果角色互换,你们会问自己什么问题?”

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯,安德鲁,首先我要说,我们收到了很多关于改变形式的称赞。它起作用了,这就是我们继续它的原因。所以效果非常好。(掌声)这些掌声是给你的,不是给我的,你值得拥有。就问题与伯克希尔相关以及有一套不用我们自己来筛选的系统而言,确实提高了问题的质量。现在,我给了查理时间思考那个问题的答案会是什么,所以我让他来回答。(笑声)

查理·芒格: 嗯,关于伯克希尔应该做哪些不同的事情,我没有太多评论。我认为相当有趣的是我们介入了比亚迪,因为比亚迪正在新技术发展的前沿冲浪,而这并不是——我们一直吹嘘要避免这个。这样说公平吗?

沃伦·巴菲特: 公平。

查理·芒格: 但我们还是做了。我认为这是因为我们表现出了一些学习能力。我认为比亚迪的投资会非常成功。我认为它会以给我们所有股东带来巨大快乐的方式成功,因为我认为他们会帮助解决世界上一些重大问题。那个地方——你知道,我自豪地谈到过基威特。他们更加努力,更加自律。这就是我对比亚迪的感觉。与这样的人交往是一种乐趣,在我的一生中,正是这些人让我取得了最大的成就。所以对我来说,我们找到了同类,只是他们更好。我们可能还会做更多这样的事情。我们通常不会自信到足以去投风险资本,仅仅因为一个聪明的年轻人有一个想法,无论多么出色。

沃伦·巴菲特: 我不会。

查理·芒格: 不,我也不会。但当我们发现比亚迪时,他们已经赢得了自己的地位。他们完成了一些在我看来几乎不可能完成的事情,但他们做到了。所以我不认为这是伯克希尔会做的最后一件不寻常的事情,也是最后一件会成功的事情。我认为伯灵顿北方的收购——我们做的时候,我们知道对他们的股东比对我们的股东更好,因为,毕竟,他们是在进入伯克希尔。(笑声)但我们也认为这对我们的股东有利。如果对我们来说是满意的,我们为什么要在意对他们更好呢?我认为这种情况还会再次发生。这就是我们的文化。你知道,中西部风格,不断改进这个地方。通过中美能源和伯灵顿,我们给伯克希尔带来了不少工程方面的东西,我当然喜欢这样。所以我希望你们大家对我们前进的方向感到满意,因为我认为它们会继续朝着同一个方向前进。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特: 是的。(掌声)我认为他们会继续朝着同一个方向前进。但回答你的问题,安德鲁,我可能会问这个问题,你知道:“你能不能非常长时间地有效利用你产生的所有资本?“我认为答案是,即使如此——我们会看到更多事情,我们会做更多这样的事情。到了某个点,数字变得足够大,以至于要做增加价值的事情变得异常困难。我的意思是,如果你只是推算数字,你可以看到10年或15年后,不仅已经积累的资本,而且所有事务中产生的资本,都会使得做那些本质上每投资一美元创造超过一美元价值的事情变得非常困难。一部分资金可能能够以那种方式使用,而且很可能会被用于我们所在的那类业务。到了某个点,数字变得太大了。实际上,我们的历史是一条不断接近那个点的曲线。

结果证明,现在我认为我们可以走得更远,比我30年前想象的要远得多。我的意思是,事情就是这样发展起来的。部分原因是我们看到了30年前我从未想过会看到的事情。但有一个极限。总会有一个时候,我们不能明智地——在我看来——总会有一个时候,我们不能明智地使用我们内部产生的100%的资本。然后我们会做一些——任何最符合股东利益的事情都会在那时做。

查理·芒格: 我认为在投资方面,伯克希尔会——可能比你们很多人预期的更早开始——有些人有一些希望,嗯,即使不如沃伦好,也是不错的近似。在某些情况下,有沃伦缺乏的能力。换句话说,不会全是负面的。(笑声)所以我真的很乐观。(笑声)我可以看到——我认为我们会成功的原因是沃伦从来不两次看一个有点古怪的人,当然,这就是你们在这里看到的。

沃伦·巴菲特: 活生生的例子,是的。(笑声)

原文

28. Big question for Berkshire’s future

WARREN BUFFETT: Andrew?

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Since I imagine this may be one of the last questions, Peter Brotchie, a shareholder from Wenham, Massachusetts, writes to say, “Thank you, Warren and Charlie, for improving the Q&A session last year. “Along those lines, are there important questions that you were surprised that you don’t get asked about Berkshire’s financials or businesses? And if so, what is the question you would ask yourself if the roles were reversed?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well Andrew, first of all, I will say we got a lot of compliments on changing the format. It worked, and that’s why we’re continuing it. So it’s worked very well. (Applause) And that applause is for you, not for me, and you deserve it. It really has improved the quality of questions, in terms of having it Berkshire-related and having a system of weeding them out without us being the ones that do the weeding out. Now, I’ve given Charlie time to think about what the answer to that question is going to be, so I’m going to turn it over to him. (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t have a lot of comment about things that should be done differently at Berkshire. I think it is quite interesting that we got into BYD, because BYD is surfing along on the developing edge of new technology, and that has not — we have always bragged about avoiding that. Isn’t that a fair statement?

WARREN BUFFETT: That’s fair.

CHARLIE MUNGER: And yet here we are. I think it’s because we’ve shown some capability for learning. And I think the BYD investment is going to work out very well. And I think it’ll work out very well in a way that gives great pleasure to all of us shareholders, because I think they’re going to help solve some significant problems of the world. And, that place is — you know, I spoke with pride of Kiewit. They tried harder, they were more self-disciplined. That’s the way I feel about BYD. And it’s a pleasure to associate with such people, and in my life those are the people with whom I’ve achieved the most. So as far as I’m concerned, we found our own kind, except they’re better. And we may do more of that. And we wouldn’t have felt confident enough to go into venture capital, typically with just a bright young man with an idea, no matter how brilliant.

WARREN BUFFETT: Not me.

CHARLIE MUNGER: No, I wouldn’t either. But BYD had won its spurs in life by the time we found it. They had accomplished things that struck me as almost impossible to do, and yet they’d done them. And so I don’t think that’s the last unusual thing that Berkshire will do, and the last one that will work. And I think the Burlington Northern acquisition — when we did it, we knew it would be better for their shareholders than it was for ours, because, after all, they were getting into Berkshire. (Laughter) But we also thought it was good for our shareholders. And why should we care that it was better for theirs, if it was satisfactory for us? And I think that will happen again, too. That’s our kind of a culture. You know, Middle Western, and constantly improving the place. And with MidAmerican and Burlington, we’re getting a fair amount of engineering into Berkshire, which of course, I like. And so I hope you people are comfortable with the way things are going, because I think they’ll keep going in the same direction. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Applause) I think they will keep going in the same direction. But to answer your question on that, Andrew, I would probably ask the question, you know, “Can you keep using all of the capital you generate, effectively, for a very long time?” And the answer, I think, to that is that even — we will see more things and we will do some more of this. There comes a point where the numbers get big enough that it gets extraordinarily hard to do things that add value. I mean, if you just play out the numbers, you could see where in 10 or 15 years, not only the capital that’s already accumulated, but the generation of capital in everything, would make it very hard to do things that are, essentially, creating more than a dollar of value per dollar invested. A portion of the money may be able to be used that way, and likely would be used in the kind of businesses we’re in. There comes a point where the numbers get too big. And actually, our history is a curve that approaches that point all the time.

It’s turned out to be that now I think we can go a lot further than I would have thought 30 years ago. I mean, it’s just — it’s developed that way. And partly that’s because we see things that I never would have thought we would have seen 30 years ago. But there is a limit. And there will come a time when we cannot intelligent — in my view — there will come a time when we cannot intelligently use 100 percent of the capital that we develop internally. And then we’ll do something that’s — whatever is in the most interest — best interest — of the shareholders will be done at that point.

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think we will get into Berkshire, on the investment side — probably starting sooner than many of you expect — people who have some promise of being, well, if not as good as Warren, a decent approximation. And in some cases with abilities that Warren lacks. In other words, it won’t be all negative. (Laughter) And so I’m really quite optimistic. (Laughter) I can see — the reason I think we will succeed at that is because Warren never looks twice at anybody who isn’t a little eccentric, which, of course, is what you’re looking at when you look up here.

WARREN BUFFETT: Living proof, yeah. (Laughter)

29. “找到你的激情,然后不要让任何事阻止你”

沃伦·巴菲特: 嗯,我想我们最好继续到第一部分了。(笑)

观众: 您好,我叫Joseph Mazzella,来自宾夕法尼亚州吉姆索普。首先感谢芒格先生和巴菲特先生,以及董事会召开这次会议和整个股东周末。到目前为止我过得非常愉快。

沃伦·巴菲特: 太好了。(掌声)

查理·芒格: 谢谢。

观众: 接着,我想分享。亚里士多德在被问及如何定义财富时,简单地回答:“是那个支出少于收入的人。“您能给像我这样的年轻企业家什么建议,关于如何定义并在自己的企业中建立财富,因为我希望有一天能建立一个您有兴趣收购的企业。

沃伦·巴菲特: 我预测你会建一个。你知道,它可能没有达到那个规模——我们也是一个移动的目标——但如果你从刚才阐述的原则开始,你可能还有其他一些类似的原则,我们也会赞同。没有什么比追随你的激情更重要的了。我的意思是,我热爱我所做的事情,显然,我整个过程中都热爱它。查理也一样。我们的经理们,你知道,他们来了——有些上过商学院,有些没有,你知道。他们各种各样。但他们的共同点——他们都很成功——共同点是他们热爱他们所做的,你知道。你必须在生活中找到那个。有些人很幸运很早就找到了。我父亲恰好在证券行业工作,这是纯粹的运气,所以当我去他办公室时,那里有很多书可以读,我被迷住了。

但是,你知道,如果他从事其他职业——我想我最终也会读那些书,但会晚得多。所以如果你找到了让你兴奋的事情,我猜你会做得非常好。它的美妙之处在于,从某种意义上说,没有那么多竞争。在你选择参与的那场比赛中,能跑得比你快的人并不多。如果你还没有找到它——你可能已经找到了——但如果你还没有找到它,你知道,你必须继续寻找。我们有70多位经理。你知道,其中一些没有——我们有一个人连高中都没上过,是吧,查理?(听不清)

查理·芒格: 哦是的。

沃伦·巴菲特: 他四年级就辍学了,我想。嗯,B夫人生前一天学都没上过。当你去家具城时——我希望你今晚去,我们预计今天会创下销售纪录(笑声)——你在那78英亩土地上看到的是最大的家居用品店,大约4亿美元的销售额。美国最大的商店,它来自于一个一天学都没上过、不会读写的女人投入的500美元资本。她热爱她所做的,你知道,我讲个故事,这是个真实的故事。当她90多岁的时候,她邀请我去她家吃晚饭。这非常不寻常。一栋非常漂亮的房子,离商店六七个街区。我进了房子,沙发、椅子、灯、餐桌,都挂着绿色的小价格标签。(笑声)这让她感觉像在家里一样。(笑声)我对她说:“B夫人,你是我喜欢的女人。“忘了索菲亚·罗兰之类的,这是我喜欢的女人。她热爱它。她一生都热爱它,想想它产生了什么。我的意思是,它——简直不可思议。我的意思是,有一次——我父亲曾引用爱默生的话:“你内在的力量在本质上是全新的。“基本上,B夫人内在的力量在本质上是全新的。在一生中,它产生了惊人的东西。所以找到你的激情,然后不要让任何事情阻止你。

原文

29. “Find your passion, and then don’t let anything stop you”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well I think we’d better move on to section 1. (Laughs)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, my name is Joseph Mazzella from Jim Thorpe, PA. I wanted to first thank Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett, as well as the board of directors for this meeting, as well as the whole shareholder weekend. I’ve had a great time so far.

WARREN BUFFETT: Terrific. (Applause)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Thank you.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: With that, I wanted to share. Aristotle, when asked how to define wealth, answered simply this, “It is he who spends less than he earns.” What advice could you give a young entrepreneur as myself on how to go about defining and both building wealth within their own business, as I hope to build a business that, one day, you’d be interested in acquiring.

WARREN BUFFETT: I predict you’re going to build one. You know, it may not quite get to the size that — and we’re a moving target as well — but if you start off with that principle you just enunciated, there are probably some other similar principles that you’ll have that we would also agree with. There’s nothing like following your passion. I mean, I love what I do, obviously, and I’ve loved it the whole time I’ve done it. Charlie is the same way. We have managers, you know, they come — some of them went to business school, some of them didn’t, you know. They’re all types. But the common factor in them — they’re successful — the common factor is they love what they do, you know. And you’ve got to find that in life. And some people are very lucky in finding it very early. It was dumb luck that my father happened to be in the securities business, so when I would go to his office there were a lot of books to read, and I got entranced with that.

But, you know, if he’d been in some other occupation — I think I would have read those books eventually, but it would have been a lot later. So if you find something that turns you on, my guess is you’re going to do very well in it. And the beauty of it is, in a sense, there’s not that much competition. There are not a lot of people out there that are going to be running faster than you in the race that you elect to get into. And if you haven’t found it yet — you may well have found it — but if you haven’t found it yet, you know, you’ve got to keep looking. And we’ve got 70-plus managers. You know, some of them didn’t — we had one guy that didn’t go to high school, even, didn’t he, Charlie? (Inaudible)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Oh yeah.

WARREN BUFFETT: He quit in fourth grade, I think. Well, Mrs. B never went to school a day in her life. And when you go out to the Furniture Mart — I hope you go out this evening, we expect to set a record today in sales (laughter) — what you are looking at on those 78 acres, you know, is the largest home furnishing store, about 400 million in sales. The largest store in the United States, and it comes from $500 of capital paid in by a woman that never went to a day of school in her life and couldn’t read or write. She loved what she was doing, and, you know, I tell the story, this is a true story. When she was well into her 90s, she invited me over to her house for dinner. That was very unusual. And a very nice house, six or seven blocks away from the store. And I went into the house, and the sofa, the chairs, the lamp, the dining room table, they all had little green price tags hanging down. (Laughter) It made her feel at home. (Laughter) And I said to her, “Mrs.

B, you are my kind of woman.” Forget Sophia Loren and all of that, this is my kind of woman. She loved it. And she loved it all her life, and just think of what that produced. I mean, it just — it’s incredible. I mean, you know, one time — my dad used to quote Emerson, that “the power that lies within you is new in nature.” And basically, the power that was within Mrs. B was new in nature. And over a lifetime it produced amazing things. So find your passion, and then don’t let anything stop you.

30. 芒格的人生基本算法

沃伦·巴菲特: 好的,卡罗尔?(掌声)

卡罗尔·卢米斯: 这是一个深刻的哲学问题。“你和查理做的很多事以及宣扬的理念,都与人们实践和期望的相反。“例如,你们不改变收购公司的管理层,你们赞扬长期员工而其他人总是寻找新鲜血液并试图解雇年长的人。你们可能不鼓励退休,而许多公司却是如此。你们不给董事高

标题:2010年股东大会

第六部分/共六部分

观众提问:我叫弗兰克·蒂德,来自阿肯色州阿卡德尔菲亚。这也是一个关于保险的问题,但首先我想感谢巴菲特先生、芒格先生、董事会,以及我们在阿肯色州称为”同事”的管理者们,感谢你们在经营伯克希尔·哈撒韦时展现的诚信,以及对股东公平相待。非常感谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name’s Frank Teed and I’m from Arkadelphia, Arkansas. This is also an insurance-type question, but I did want to thank Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, the board, and in Arkansas we call them the associates — the managers — for your integrity in running Berkshire Hathaway and dealing fairly with the shareholders. So thank you very much.

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. (Applause)

观众提问:我们在信贷危机中看到信贷的严重过度使用,最终导致了巨大的金融崩溃,政府不得不介入。现在我们看到城市、州、国家的债务大幅增加。对伯克希尔·哈撒韦来说,如果发生全球金融崩溃,我们的风险敞口有多大?是否存在可能导致我们陷入困境的相关风险?您说过我们有400亿美元的市政债券保险。其中80亿美元是给各州的,我不太确定那是否属于市政债券。一场大规模事件是否可能导致大量损失,同时我们的投资价值下降,从而出现类似AIG的情况?谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: We saw in the credit crisis the gross overuse of credit, which led to the big financial meltdown with the government ultimately stepping in. Now we see a huge increase in debt in our cities, our states, our countries. For Berkshire Hathaway, what could be our exposure on a global financial meltdown? Could there be correlated risk that could get us in trouble? You’ve said we have 40 billion in municipal bond insurance. There’s 8 billion to the states, which I’m not sure exactly if that was a municipal bond. Could a large event cause a large number of losses that was coupled with a decrease in our investments to make an AIG-type situation? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,如果你假设发生了一场彻底的崩溃,而我们在2008年做出的赌注是它不会发生。那其实是不必要的,但我们在2008年确实非常接近,我当时判断,A)政府能够解决当时存在的恐慌,B)最终他们会这么做。我毫不怀疑他们有能力做到。问题在于,他们会不会变得一团糟,决策会不会瘫痪,内斗会不会爆发,国会会不会耍花招?所有这些事情。我认为会有一些这样的情况,但我认为最终我们会做正确的事,也就是全力出手,事实也确实如此。这种情况还会再次发生。所以,如果你谈论的是大规模核攻击、化学攻击或生物攻击,确实导致很大比例的人口死亡之类的事情,谁知道会发生什么。但我要说的是,我认为伯克希尔能够承受任何公司能够承受的任何事情。而且,问题不会出在我们的保险业务上。

如果发生某些非同寻常的事情——我完全不预期会发生——但可能会出现世界瘫痪的情况。但我认为,经历了2008年之后,我们的政府可能更清楚地理解了在那种时刻采取大规模行动的必要性。做一切必要的事情——当货币市场基金得到担保,当商业票据得到担保——我的意思是,当出现这类前所未有的情况时,他们行动得非常迅速。在我看来,他们会再次这样做。没有理由——这个国家的工厂不会消失,土地不会变得不那么肥沃,人们不会变得不那么富有创新精神——除非齿轮完全卡死,否则一切都会正常运转。我不认为会发生这种情况。伯克希尔,从任何保险灾难来看——你说得对,事物在下跌时是相互关联的——当一个领域情况糟糕时,确实会蔓延到另一个领域。但我们建立起来的公司,我相信能够承受任何——除了世界彻底毁灭之外的事情。那不会发生。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, if you postulate something where there was a total meltdown, and we essentially made the bet in 2008 there would not be. It would be unnecessary, but we came close in 2008, and I decided that A) the government could solve the panic that existed, and finally that they would. There wasn’t any question in my mind they could. The question is, would they get so muddled up, would decision making get paralyzed, would rivalries break out, would, you know, Congress grandstand? All of those sort of things. And I thought there’d be some of that, but I thought in the end we would do the right thing, which was go all in, which we did. And that would happen again. So I — if you talk about some massive nuclear, chemical, or biological attack that really does in a very significant proportion of the population or something, you know, who knows what would happen. But I would say this, that I think Berkshire can withstand anything that any corporation can. And it won’t be our insurance business that causes a problem.

If something extraordinary happens — and I don’t anticipate that at all — but there could be a situation where the world becomes paralyzed. But I think that having gone through 2008, I think that our government probably better understands the necessity of taking massive action at a time like that. Doing whatever is necessary — when the guaranteed money market funds, when the guaranteed commercial paper — I mean, when there are things like that, you know, they were sort of unprecedented, and they did them very quickly. They’d do it again, in my view. There is no reason — the plants of the country don’t disappear, the land doesn’t become less fertile, you know, people don’t become less innovative — things will work unless somehow the gears get all entirely messed up. And I don’t see that happening. Berkshire, from any insurance catastrophe — and you’re right that things correlate on the downside — when things are bad in one area, they really do spread to another. But we were built, I think, to withstand anything that — other than a total sort of wipe out of the world. That isn’t going to happen. Charlie?

查理·芒格:我不担心这个。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’m not worried about it. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。巨额债务不会击垮我们。这是我能保证的一点。我不能告诉你彗星撞地球之类的事情,但我不在乎政府、企业或其他任何方面在财务上变得多么愚蠢,那都不会伤害到伯克希尔。我想感谢各位的到来。查理和我都非常感激。(掌声)谢谢你们。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Huge amounts of debt are not going to do us in. That’s one thing I can guarantee you. I can’t tell you about comets hitting us or something of that sort, but I don’t care how silly governments get in terms of finance, or corporations get, or anything of that sort, that will not harm Berkshire. I want to thank you all for coming. Charlie and I really appreciate it. (Applause) And thank you.

查理·芒格:谢谢。(掌声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Thank you. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。我很感激,我们都很感激,我相信台上的各位也是。现在我们将休息大约五分钟。有些人可以去购物,有些人可能想留下来参加业务会议,我们五分钟后开始业务会议,看看需要多长时间。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. I appreciate it, we appreciate that, I’m sure the panel does. Now we’ll break for about five minutes. Some of you can go shop and some of you will want to stay around for the business meeting, and we’ll start the business meeting in five minutes and we’ll see how long it takes.

34. 伯克希尔业务会议开始

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我已经介绍过伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事。今天和我们在一起的还有德勤会计师事务所的合伙人,他们是我们的审计师。他们可以回答你们关于他们审计伯克希尔账目工作的相关问题。福雷斯特·克鲁特先生是伯克希尔的秘书,他将做会议书面记录。贝基·阿米克女士被任命为本次会议的选举监察官,她将认证董事选举的投票计票结果。本次会议的主要代理投票权持有人是沃尔特·斯科特和马克·汉堡。秘书有关于伯克希尔已发行、有表决权以及出席会议的股份数量的报告吗?

原文

34. Berkshire business meeting begins

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. I’ve already introduced the Berkshire Hathaway directors. Also with us today are partners in the firm of Deloitte and Touche, our auditors. They are available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning their firm’s audit of the accounts of Berkshire. Mr. Forrest Krutter is secretary of Berkshire. He will make a written record of proceedings. Miss Becki Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting, and she will certify to the count of votes casts in the election of directors. The main proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding, entitled to vote, and represented at the meeting?

福雷斯特·克鲁特:是的,我有。正如随本次会议通知一同寄给所有在2010年3月3日(本次会议的股权登记日)登记在册股东的委托书中所指出的,已发行的伯克希尔·哈撒韦A类普通股有1,029,738股,每股有权在会议审议的动议中投一票,已发行的B类普通股有926,013,086股,每股有权在会议审议的动议中投万分之一票。其中,705,611股A类股和566,627,821股B类股通过截至4月29日周四晚间收到的委托书代表出席本次会议。

原文

FORREST KRUTTER: Yes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 3, 2010, being the record date for this meeting, there were 1,029,738 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 926,013,086 of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one ten-thousandth of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 705,611 Class A shares and 566,627,821 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 29th.

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。这个数字构成法定人数,因此我们将直接进行会议。第一项议程是宣读上一次股东会议的纪要。我请沃尔特·斯科特先生向会议提出动议。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. That number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott who will place the motion before the meeting.

沃尔特·斯科特:我提议,免于宣读上一次股东年会和特别会议的纪要,并批准该纪要。

原文

WALTER SCOTT: I move that the reading of the minutes of the last annual meeting of the shareholders and the special meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.

沃伦·巴菲特:有附议吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Do I hear a second?

声音:我附议。

原文

VOICE: I second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特:动议已提出并得到附议。有意见或问题吗?我们将通过口头表决对此动议进行投票。赞成的请说”赞成”。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: The motion has been moved and seconded. Are there any comments or questions? We will vote on this motion by voice vote. All of those in favor say aye.

声音:赞成。

原文

VOICES: Aye.

沃伦·巴菲特:反对?动议通过。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Opposed? The motion’s carried.

35. 选举伯克希尔董事

沃伦·巴菲特:第二项议程是选举董事。希望撤回之前提交的委托书并亲自就董事选举投票的出席股东,可以这样做。此外,如果任何出席股东尚未提交委托书并希望获得选票以亲自投票,也可以这样做。如果希望这样做,请向过道中的会议工作人员表明身份,他们会向您提供选票。请希望获得选票的人表明身份,以便我们分发选票。我现在请沃尔特·斯科特先生就董事选举向会议提出动议。

原文

35. Election of Berkshire directors

WARREN BUFFETT: Second item of business is to elect directors. The shareholders present who wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in and vote in person on the election of directors, he or she may do so. Also, if any shareholder that is present has not turned in a proxy and desires a ballot in order to vote in person, you may do so. If you wish to do this, please identify yourself to meeting officials in the aisles who will furnish a ballot to you. Would those persons desiring ballots please identify themselves so that we may distribute them? I now recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to the election of directors.

沃尔特·斯科特:我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、唐纳德·基奥、托马斯·墨菲、罗恩·奥尔森和沃尔特·斯科特为董事。

原文

WALTER SCOTT: I move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Donald Keough, Thomas Murphy, Ron Olson, and Walter Scott be elected as directors.

沃伦·巴菲特:有附议吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Is there a second?

声音:我附议。

原文

VOICE: I second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特:已经有人提出并附议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、唐纳德·基奥、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森和沃尔特·斯科特为董事。还有其他提名吗?有讨论吗?提名已准备好进行投票。如果有任何股东要亲自投票,请现在在董事选举的选票上做标记,并将选票交给选举监察官。阿米克女士,准备好后,请给出报告。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s been moved and seconded that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Donald Keough, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, and Walter Scott be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations? Is there any discussion? Nominations are ready to be voted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the election of directors and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Miss Amick, when you’re ready, you may give your report.

贝琪·阿米克:我的报告已准备好。根据截至上周四晚间收到的委托书,代理投票权持有人投出的选票中,每位候选人的得票数不少于756,041票。这个数字远远超过所有已发行的A类和B类股份总票数的多数。根据特拉华州法律要求,关于投票精确计数的认证,包括代理投票权持有人根据本次会议提交的委托书以及本次会议亲自投票所投出的额外票数,将提交给秘书,以归入本次会议的纪要中。

原文

BETSY AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders, in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening, cast not less than 756,041 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes related to all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes, including the additional votes to be cast by the proxy holders in response to proxies delivered at this meeting, as well as any cast in person at this meeting, will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克女士。沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、唐纳德·基奥、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森和沃尔特·斯科特已当选为董事。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Miss Amick. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Donald Keough, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, and Walter Scott have been elected as directors.

36. 业务会议休会

沃伦·巴菲特:在休会前,是否有人还有任何其他事务要在本次会议上提出?如果没有,我请斯科特先生向会议提出动议。

原文

36. Business meeting adjourns

WARREN BUFFETT: Does anyone have any further business to come before this meeting before we adjourn? If not, I recognize Mr. Scott to place a motion before the meeting.

沃尔特·斯科特:我提议本次会议休会。

原文

WALTER SCOTT: I move this meeting be adjourned.

沃伦·巴菲特:有附议吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Second?

声音:我附议。

原文

VOICE: I second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特:休会动议已提出并得到附议。我们将进行口头表决。有讨论吗?如果没有,赞成的请说”赞成”。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Motion to adjourn has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Is there any discussion? If not, all in favor say aye.

声音:赞成。

原文

VOICES: Aye.

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