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2007年股东大会

第一部分/共六部分

2007年股东大会

上午场

1. 吉米·巴菲特演唱”伯克希尔·哈撒韦维尔”

主持人:现在,请大家欢迎风趣、深刻、机智、才华横溢、风度翩翩、有影响力、富有却朴实、多才多艺、出奇谦虚、英俊且优雅的镇定自若典范——巴菲特先生。(掌声和欢呼声,音乐人吉米·巴菲特抱着吉他走上舞台)

吉米·巴菲特:你们在等谁?我的初级合伙人?(笑声)对于那些不认识我的人,我是远房表亲,吉米·巴菲特。今天是抢劫奥马哈银行的好日子。所有人都在这儿,你们知道的,所以——(掌声)我没能赶上和勒布朗·詹姆斯一起打球。我当时正忙着为这次惊喜亮相准备我的行头。这是我第一次来到Qwest中心,在这么大的空间里我感觉像在家一样。回到奥马哈真是太棒了。(掌声)这是好消息。令人不安的消息是,作为伯克希尔·哈撒韦的长期股东,最大的问题是,你们知道的,查理和沃伦年纪都不小了。他们要把公司留给谁?好吧——(笑声)——我要告诉你们一个消息。我和沃伦做了基因测试。你们在议程或股东报告中可看不到这个。

大约6000年前的某个北欧古村里,他们就在交易巴菲特基因,而我得到了才华,他得到了商业头脑。后来,在多丽丝·巴菲特[沃伦的姐姐]介绍我们认识之后——大概30年前吧——我开始琢磨,我也得把商业这块搞起来。既然血浓于水,我就是你们的新任董事长了。希望你们喜欢这个安排。(掌声)别急着卖股票。我可是要留着我的那份。(笑声)在飞来的飞机上,我想——昨天读《纽约时报》商业版时觉得挺有意思的。发生了很多事。所以我琢磨着——这首歌对我来说一直很成功——我想在奥马哈Qwest中心的首次亮相上,把”玛格丽塔维尔”稍微改编一下,加点伯克希尔风格——实际上,我们今天是在”伯克希尔·哈撒韦维尔”里消磨时光。

我从没这么早唱过歌,除非是在NBC的”今日”节目上,所以你们没付钱,别担心——(笑声)别担心,我是半专业的。没关系。我会看着这些提示词。你们能看出来,沃伦给了我一个很大的提词器预算。(笑声)好吧。如果你们会唱可以跟着唱——不过你们不会——你们可能知道其中一些歌词。我会尽量唱慢点,我戴着双光眼镜,应该没问题——我们早上先来首小调开始吧。(用”玛格丽塔维尔”旋律演唱)啃着海绵蛋糕,配着奥马哈牛排,看着你们股东们一圈圈买酒。Qwest中心在摇滚,记者们全堵住。

毫无疑问沃伦在这城里是大人物。在伯克希尔·哈撒韦维尔消磨时光,寻找我丢失的喜诗巧克力盒。有些人说查理·芒格该负责任,你知道,鲁珀特·默多克很恼火。从世界图书到沙发,喷气机、钻石和(听不清),(听不清)用欧元,别忘了欧元。(说话)哦。我犯了个错误。好的。等等。你们可不会为这个付钱,对吧?你们要去哪儿吗?我们重新开始。从——从——让我把这双光眼镜摘掉。(演唱)从世界图书到沙发,(听不清)和(听不清),喷气机、钻石和内裤撒了一地。(说话)是鲜果布衣让我卡住了。(演唱)工具书(听不清)。别忘了欧元,让所有那些——(说话)哦,这句不错。

我得——(演唱)让所有那些对冲基金家伙想去买商店。在伯克希尔·哈撒韦维尔再次消磨时光,寻找一些好公司来收购。有些人说私有化该负责任,但我知道,这家控股公司火力全开。那么,谁是那位奇才,想出了蜥蜴的点子,边开玩笑边向人类卖车险?项目我们都能克服,但我还是想要那个折扣。有人能告诉我那些有钱的GEICO灯泡坐在哪里吗?在伯克希尔·哈撒韦维尔再次消磨时光,寻找我丢失的盐罐。有些人说多丽丝·巴菲特该负责任,但我知道这全是沃伦的错。有些人说尤克里里该负责任,如果有上帝,他会把那东西变成(听不清)。(掌声)(说话)好吧。你们以为我开玩笑说管理公司的事,对吧?我确实是。

(笑)真是个巨大的解脱。带着极大的自豪和钦佩,请欢迎我的初级合伙人,沃伦和查理。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:出生时就分开了。出生时就分开了。(笑)谢谢,吉米。

吉米·巴菲特:好了。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我其实让查理去唱那首歌——(笑)

原文

Title: 2007 Annual Meeting

Part 1/6

2007 Annual Meeting

Morning Session

1. Jimmy Buffett sings “Berkshire Hathaway-ville”

ANNOUNCER: And now, please welcome the charming, insightful, witty, rather brilliant, debonair, influential, well-heeled yet down-to-earth, talented, surprisingly modest, handsome, and refined exemplar of unflappable character, Mr. Buffett. (Applause and cheers as musician Jimmy Buffett comes on stage with a guitar)

JIMMY BUFFET: Who were you expecting? My junior partner? (Laughter) For those of you who don’t know, I’m the distant cousin, Jimmy Buffett. This would be a good day to rob a bank in Omaha. Everybody’s here, you know, so — (Applause) I couldn’t be around for the game with LeBron James. I was busy working on my wardrobe for this surprise appearance. This is my first time in the Qwest Center, so I feel very at home in large spaces like this. It’s great to be back in Omaha. (Applause) That’s the good news. The disturbing news is, as a long-time Berkshire Hathaway stockholder and shareholder, the big question is, you know, those guys are getting up in age, you know, Charlie and Warren. Who are they going to leave it to? Well — (laughter) — I got news for you. We did a genetic test, Warren and I did. You won’t see that in your program or in the shareholders report.

And somewhere back about 6,000 years ago, in some ancient village in Scandinavia, they were trading Buffett genes, and I got the talent. He got the business. So, later on in life, after Doris [Buffett, Warren’s sister] introduced us — I don’t know, 30 years ago — I started figuring out, so I better get that business thing going as well. So, since blood is thicker than water, I am your new chairman. So, I hope you like that. (Applause) Don’t run out to sell. I’m keeping my mine. (Laughter) So, on the way out here on the plane, I figured — it was an interesting day, if you read The New York Times business section yesterday. There was a lot going on. So, I thought I would — this song has done very well for me, so I thought I would bring this for my first appearance in Omaha at the Qwest Center — I would rewrite a little “Margaritaville” with a little Berkshire — well, actually we’re wasting away in Berkshire Hathaway-ville this — today.

I’ve never sung this early in the morning, except on the [NBC] “Today” show, so you’re not paying, so don’t worry about it, so — (Laughter) Don’t worry, I’m a semi-professional. This is OK. I will be looking at these notes. As you can tell, Warren gave me a really big budget for a teleprompter here. (Laughter) All right. So, you can sing along if — but you will not know — you’ll know a few of the words to these songs. But then I’ll try to do this slowly, and I have my bifocals, so I think we’re in good shape here, so — We’ll start the morning off with a little hymn. (Singing to the melody of “Margaritaville”) Nibblin’ on sponge cake, And Omaha beef steak, Watchin’ you stockholders buying the rounds. The Qwest Center’s rockin’, The press is all blockin’.

There isn’t a doubt Warren’s big in this town. Wastin’ away in Berkshire Hathaway-a-ville, Searchin’ for my lost box of See’s. Some people claim that Charlie Munger’s to blame, And you know, Rupert Murdoch is peeved. From World Books to sofas, Jet planes, diamonds, and (inaubible), (Inaudible) in euros, Let’s not forget euros. (Spoken) Uh oh. I made a mistake here. All right. Hold on. You won’t pay for that, OK? Are you going anywhere? We’ll start again. From — from — Let me get these bifocals off here. (Singing) From World Books to sofas, (Inaudible) and (inaubible), Jet planes, diamonds, and underwear cover the floor. (Spoken) It was the Fruit of the Loom that got me. (Singing) Tool books (inaudible). Let’s don’t forget euro, Make all those — (Spoken) Oh, this is a good line.

I got to — (Singing) Make all those hedge funders Want to go and buy stores. Wastin’ away again in Berkshire Hathaway-ville, Searchin’ for some good companies to buy. Some people claim privatization’s to blame, But we know, this holding company’s on fire. So, who was the wizard, Who thought up the lizard, To sell car insurance to humans while making some jokes? Projects we’ll surmount, But I still want that discount. Can someone show me where they’re sitting those rich Geico bulbs? Wastin’ away again in Berkshire Hathaway-ville, Searchin’ for my lost shaker of salt. And some people claim that Doris Buffett’s to blame, But I know this is all Warren’s fault. And some people claim that ukulele’s to blame, If there’s a God, he’ll turn that thing into (inaubible). (Applause) (Spoken) All right. So you thought I was kidding about that running the company stuff, didn’t you? So — I was.

(Laughs) That’s a big relief there. So, with a great bit of pride and admiration, please welcome my junior partners, Warren and Charlie. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: Separated at birth. Separated at birth. (Laughs) Thanks, Jimmy.

JIMMY BUFFETT: All right.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. I actually had asked Charlie to do that number — (Laughs)

2. 开场致辞

沃伦·巴菲特:有很多人要感谢,首先从吉米开始。太棒了。我们把他藏了起来——他昨晚很晚才到——为了确保这是个惊喜,我们把他安排在希尔顿酒店。我只想说声谢谢他。我们俩都有商业基因,但不幸的是,他得到了唱歌基因。我只有你们听到的这个嗓音。电影方面,我们得到了很多人的大力帮助。他们做这些纯粹是为了乐趣。我特别要感谢DIC的安迪·海沃德,他制作了那部动画片。他已经连续做了好几年了。他们回到这里录制我的声音,还有比尔[盖茨]和查理的声音。他们自己全包了,只是为了参与这部电影。安迪和我——我正在和安迪合作一部动画系列片,很快就要推出了,目标观众是年轻人,希望能在周六早上给孩子们带来欢乐的同时融入一些金融教育。我们拭目以待结果如何。

但安迪非常合作。一直以来都是——(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:我女儿苏西负责拼凑那部电影。工作量很大,但这是爱的劳动。她做得非常出色,我想像往常一样感谢她。(掌声)谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:最后,我要特别感谢整个活动的总策划人凯莉·布罗兹。凯莉把这一切,包括展览厅,都安排得井井有条。我把事情交给她,然后就不管了,查理和我在周六早上直接出现就行。凯莉明天庆祝50岁生日。凯莉,请你站起来,向大家致意。是的。(唱)祝你生日快乐。祝你生日快乐。亲爱的凯莉,祝你生日快乐。给凯莉的。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:今天,我们将遵循常规流程。这个大厅周围设有多支麦克风,还有几个分会场。我们将从一个区域转到另一个区域,一直持续到中午左右,然后休息30到45分钟吃午饭。之后我们回到这里,继续同样的流程,大约到下午3点。我们不预先筛选问题或提问者。谁先排队到麦克风谁就提问。3点我们休息几分钟。3点15分重新开始正式业务会议。我们有一个业务事项——通常我们五分钟就能处理完业务,重新选举董事。但今天议程上有一项关于我们持有中石油股份的提案。我们本不需将其列入投票。SEC告诉我们不必这样做,但我们认为这样做是个好主意,让所有感兴趣的人都能听到我们的理由以及反对者的理由。

我们会给他们充足的时间告诉你们为什么他们认为我们错了,我们会做出回应。我希望任何对此话题感兴趣的人都能一直待到4点会议结束,因为查理和我之后将迎接多达600名来自北美以外地区的股东。人数创下纪录。我想我们有大约100人来自澳大利亚,接近这个数字来自南非。我们的股东来自世界各地。所以,既然他们远道而来奥马哈,查理和我至少想和他们握握手,我们从4点到6点做这件事,然后今晚还有其他安排。这就是本次会议的流程。我们不会在3点15分开始的正式会议之前选举董事,但我想在此刻介绍他们,并就此做一些特别宣布。

原文

2. Opening remarks

WARREN BUFFETT: Got a lot of people to thank, starting off with Jimmy. Wonderful. We hid him out — came in last night kind of late and we — to be sure it was a surprise, we stashed him away over at the Hilton, and I just want to say thanks to him. We both got the commercial gene, but unfortunately, he got the singing gene. I got this voice you’re hearing. We — the movie, as we mentioned, we get a lot of help from a lot of people. They all do it just for the fun of it. I particularly want to thank Andy Heyward of DIC who did that cartoon. He’s done them now for a number of years. They come back here to get my voice recorded and to get Bill’s [Gates] voice and Charlie’s voice. They do it all themselves just to participate in the movie. Andy and I — I’m working with Andy on a cartoon series that will be out pretty soon, which we’re aiming toward younger people to try and work a little financial education into a good time on Saturday morning for kids. And we’ll see how that all comes out.

But Andy is wonderful to work with. It’s been — (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: My daughter Suze puts that movie together. It’s a lot of work and it’s a labor of love. She does a terrific job, and I just want to thank her for — as usual. (Applause) Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Then finally I want to particularly thank the grand impresario of this whole affair is Kelly Broz. And Kelly puts this all together, the exhibition hall. I just turn it over to her. I forget about it, and Charlie and I just show up on Saturday morning. And Kelly is having her 50th birthday tomorrow. So, Kelly, would you stand up and take a bow, please. Yeah. (Singing) Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday, dear Kelly. Happy birthday to you. For Kelly. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: Now, today we’re going to follow the usual format. We have a number of microphones placed around this room and we have overflow rooms. We will go from one station to the other, keep going until about noon or thereabouts, and then we’ll break for 30 or 45 minutes for lunch. We’ll come back here, and we will then go until about 3 o’clock, continuing the same routine. We don’t prescreen the questions or the questioners. It’s whoever got in line first for the microphones. At 3 we will take a break for a few minutes. We will reconvene at 3:15 for the official business meeting. We have an item of business — normally we take care of business in about five minutes, reelect the directors. But today we have an item on the proxy relative to our holdings of PetroChina. We were not required to put that on the ballot. The SEC told us we didn’t have to, but we really thought it would be a good idea to do it so that all of you that are interested can hear about our reasoning and the reasoning of the people who disagree with us.

We’ll give them plenty of time to tell you why they think we’re wrong and we’ll respond. And I hope anybody that’s interested at all on the subject, I hope you stay right until 4 o’clock when we will adjourn, because Charlie and I are then going to greet, perhaps, as many as 600 shareholders who have come from outside of North America. We have a record number. I think we have a hundred or so from Australia, and we have close to that number from South Africa. We have shareholders from all over the world. So we feel if they come all the way to Omaha, Charlie and I would at least like to shake their hands, and we have that from about 4 till 6:00 o’clock, and then we’ll be doing some other things this evening. But that is the drill for this meeting. We won’t elect the directors until the regular meeting, which commences at 3:15, but I would like to introduce them at this time and we have a few special announcements in that connection.

3. 介绍伯克希尔董事

沃伦·巴菲特:我们从这里开始——这是查理,这个一直在旁边制造噪音的家伙。(笑声)他有点过度活跃。但我们似乎——我觉得他吃过药了。(笑声)顺便说一下,查理听力很好,我视力好,所以我们合作得很好。我有一点——实际上,我记住他名字的时候觉得自己还挺行的。我们俩的年龄加起来是159岁,给那些不太会算大数字的人听。所以这是查理。然后我们有——当我念到你的名字时请站起来——霍华德·巴菲特。(掌声)比尔·盖茨。(掌声)桑迪·戈特斯曼。(掌声)夏洛特·古曼。(掌声)前奥马哈人,唐·基奥。(掌声)汤姆·墨菲。(掌声)罗恩·奥尔森。(掌声)以及终身奥马哈人,沃尔特·斯科特。(掌声)此外,我们还有一位董事,他的家族与伯克希尔·哈撒韦及其前身公司有着超过一百年的渊源。

他的父亲在1965年巴菲特合伙企业对伯克希尔·哈撒韦获得控制权时发挥了关键作用。他和他的父亲一样,以各种可能的方式给予了支持,现在他的儿子也是如此。金·蔡斯在我们的董事会任职多年。和他父亲一样,他是一位出色的董事。他是一位了不起的朋友。他今年将从董事会退休,但金和他的家人都在这里,金和家人们,如果你们能站起来,我希望股东们认识你们。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:最后,我们将选举一位新董事,我已经把选票揣在口袋里了,所以毫无疑问,她就是苏·德克尔。苏,请你站起来。(掌声)

原文

3. Berkshire directors introduced

WARREN BUFFETT: But we start off — this is Charlie, this fellow that’s been making all the noise over here. (Laughter) He’s quite hyperkinetic. But we seem — I think he’s on his medicine. (Laughter) Charlie, incidentally, can hear quite well and I can see, so we work together. I have a little — I thought I was doing pretty well when I remembered his name, actually. But our combined ages are 159 for those of you who can’t work with big numbers. So Charlie. And then we have — and if you’ll stand as I read your name — Howard Buffett. (Applause) Bill Gates. (Applause) Sandy Gottesman. (Applause) Charlotte Guyman. (Applause) A former Omahan, Don Keough. (Applause) Tom Murphy. (Applause) Ron Olson. (Applause) And a lifetime Omahan, Walter Scott. (Applause) Now, in addition, we have with us a director whose family has been involved with Berkshire Hathaway and its predecessor companies for over a hundred years.

His father played a very key role in Buffett partnership obtaining control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965. He was supportive in every possible way, as his father, and now his son. And Kim Chace has been on our board for a great number of years. He’s been a — just like his father before him, he’s been a wonderful director. He’s been a great friend. He will be leaving the board this year, but Kim is here with his family and, Kim and the family, if you would stand up, I’d like the shareholders to recognize you. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: And then finally we will have a new director get elected, and I’ve got the votes in my pocket so there’s no question about it, and that is Sue Decker. And, Sue, if you will, please stand. (Applause)

4. 第一季度收益”不错”

沃伦·巴菲特:在开始提问之前还有一两件事。我们昨天收盘后公布了收益,我看不到——监控器上有显示吗?第一季度不错。去年是不错的一年。保险收益将会下降。这是毫无疑问的。下降多少取决于大自然母亲和其他一些因素。但保险业经历了一段非同寻常的时期。我的意思是,去年没有发生什么坏事,第一季度也是如此。正如你所料,这种有利的经验导致一些地区的保费大幅下降。保险的性质是,如果你签了一份一年期的合同,比如说六个月前,你仍然按旧费率收取保费;如果你签一年期保单,接下来的六个月也是如此。所以事情变好或变坏时存在滞后效应。从这个时点开始,我们的保险费率结果将显示价格下降的影响。它们很可能显示——当然,去年我们有想象中最温和的飓风季节。

今年我们承保的飓风风险敞口较小,但无论如何,当自然灾害发生时,如果它们真的发生,我们将支付大量资金。从我们的角度来看,情况不可能比去年更好了。所以保险界的事情,我们的保险收益、承保收益,必然会下降。我们真正希望的是,随着时间的推移,保险承保大致能盈亏平衡。所以当你看到像去年或今年这样显著的承保利润时,只需将其视为好的一面,以后会被承保损失所抵消。但如果我们保险承保能盈亏平衡,我们就做得非常非常好了,因为我们产生了大量浮存金,并通过这些浮存金赚钱,而且我们的浮存金处于历史最高水平。所以当我们有承保利润时,这其实是蛋糕上的糖霜,但不必期望——嗯,它不会年复一年地出现。

自从我们进入保险业以来,大约一半的年份我们承保盈利,一半的年份没有。我认为现在我们的业务组合使得未来我们可能稍微好一点,但我们不会像去年和今年第一季度那样。我们的资产负债表上有一项不寻常的项目需要你注意。3月31日,你会看到我们的应收款增加了大约70亿美元。这是因为我在年报中描述的Equitas交易。3月31日,这笔交易基本上在季度末完成了。所以我们有70亿美元的应收款,几天后我们收到了70亿美元的现金和证券。所以那笔应收款很快变成了流动资产、现金。我们卖掉了收到的所有证券。所以我们在4月初有70亿美元从应收款转到了现金。除此之外,我们大多数非保险业务都做得不错。

与住宅建设相关的业务受到打击,有些情况非常严重,有些只是——但仍然反映出业务的下滑。我猜测这种情况可能会持续相当长一段时间。所以你会看到与住宅建设相关的公司,如Shaw、Johns Manville、ACME Brick等,收益将会下降。但总体而言,与竞争对手相比,我们的经理们继续做得绝对出色。我们有世界上最优秀的经理团队,就此而言,我们也有世界上任何公司中最优秀的股东群体,查理和我非常感激。你们在电影中看到查理和我去给以色列的伙伴们提供很多如何更好地运营业务的建议。查理可能想——你可能想评论一下ISCAR。

查理·芒格:嗯,那是一次很棒的经历,ISCAR是一家非常伟大的公司。我从未见过像ISCAR那样自动化的运营。他们认为如果有任何人手不得不做什么事,那是一种耻辱。

沃伦·巴菲特:我们没有看就买了,但看了之后,我们真的很喜欢。(笑声)对于那些不会待到3点15分的人——我希望每个感兴趣的人都留下来——那将是一次有趣的讨论。但我们有一个初步的投票结果。再次强调,我看不到上面的投票结果。[首席财务官]马克·汉堡,投票结果在上面吗?听不到任何声音,但我猜。基本上,我从这里看不到,但大约有2%赞成该决议,约98%反对。A股和B股都是如此。所以人们在提案上的投票方式没有太大区别。即使排除我个人的反对票,反对比例大约是25比1。

任何希望亲自投票或改变投票的人,请务必参加3点15分的会议,我想如果你们愿意留下,讨论会非常有趣。

原文

4. Q1 earnings are “good”

WARREN BUFFETT: Just one or two items of business the — before we start the questioning. We did report our earnings yesterday after the close, and I can’t see the — are they up on the monitor? But it was a good first quarter. We had a good year last year. The insurance earnings are going to go down. There’s no question about that. How much they go down depends on Mother Nature and a few other factors. But it’s been an extraordinary period for insurance. I mean, nothing bad happened last year, and the same was true in the first quarter. As you might expect, that favorable experience has caused people to lower prices in some areas quite dramatically. And the nature of insurance, if you write a one-year contract, say, six months ago, you were still getting premium at the old rate, if you write at a one-year policy, for another six months. So there’s a lag effect when things are getting either better or worse. And the lag effect from this point forward, we will — our insurance rates results will show the effect of lower prices. They will probably show — certainly we have the most benign hurricane season imaginable last year.

We have less hurricane exposure that we’ve written this year but, nevertheless, as natural catastrophes occur we will be paying out lots of money if and when they occur. It couldn’t get any better than it was last year from our standpoint. So things in the insurance world, our insurance earnings, underwriting earnings, are bound to decrease. Now, what we really hope over time is more or less to break even on the underwriting of insurance. So when you see a significant profit like last year or underwriting profit this year, just look at that as kind of the good side of what will later be an offset to it in a way of an underwriting loss. But if we break even in insurance on underwriting, we do very, very well because we generate lots of float and we earn money on that float and our float is at an all-time high. So this is really the frosting on the cake when we have an underwriting profit, and it’s not to be expected to necessarily — well, it won’t occur year after year.

Ever since we’ve been in the insurance business, about half the years we’ve made money underwriting and half we haven’t. I think our mix of business now is such that we’ll even maybe do a touch better than that in the future, but we won’t do anything like what we did in the last year and in the first quarter this year. There’s one unusual item in our balance sheet that you should be aware of. March 31, you’ll see our receivables went up by about $7 billion. That was because of the Equitas transaction I described in the annual report. On March 31st, the deal, basically, was closed at the end of the quarter. So we had a receivable of 7 billion, and then a couple of days later we were given 7 billion of cash and securities. So that receivable very quickly turned into liquid assets, cash. And we sold all those securities we got. So we had 7 billion transferred from receivables to cash very early in April. Other than that, most of our noninsurance businesses did fine.

The residential constructionrelated businesses are getting hit, in some cases getting hit very hard, and in some cases getting just — but still reflecting decreases in their business. And my guess is that that continues, perhaps, for quite a while. So you will see lower earnings coming from the companies that are related to residential construction such as Shaw, Johns Manville, ACME Brick, and that group. But overall, compared to the companies they compete with, our managers continue to do an absolutely sensational job. We have the greatest group of managers and, for that matter, we’ve got the greatest group of stockholders, of any company I know of in the world, and Charlie and I are very grateful. You saw in the movie Charlie and I going over there to give the fellows in Israel a lot of advice on how to run their operation better. And Charlie might want to — you might want to comment on ISCAR.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, that was a great experience, and ISCAR is a very great company. I have never seen anything as automated as that ISCAR operation. I think they regard it as a disgrace if any human hand has to do anything.

WARREN BUFFETT: We bought it without looking at it, but after we looked at it, we really liked it. (Laughter) For those of you who won’t be around for the 3:15 — and I hope everybody that’s interested sticks around for that — it will be an interesting discussion. But we do have a preliminary vote. Again, I can’t see the vote up there. But, [CFO] Marc [Hamburg], is the vote up there? Unable to hear anything there, but I assume it. The — basically, I can’t see it from here, but it’s about 2 percent are in favor of the resolution and about 98 percent opposed. And that was true of both the A and the B stock. So there really wasn’t any great difference in the way people voted on the proposal. And even if you leave out my personal vote, which was against, it’s about a 25-to-one margin that voted in opposition to it.

And anybody that wishes to vote in person or to change their vote, be sure and stay for the meeting at 3:15, and I think you’ll find the discussion very interesting if you care to stay.

5. 巴菲特认为私人股权”泡沫”不会马上破裂

沃伦·巴菲特:让我们看看地图。我们在这里。我们将从1号区域开始,我想是在这边,我们有一位提问者。

观众成员:早上好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫凯文·特鲁伊特,来自伊利诺伊州芝加哥。感谢两位再次为你们的股东和同道资本家们举办这场”资本家的伍德斯托克”。我有两个问题。第一个问题是给巴菲特先生和芒格先生的。

沃伦·巴菲特:我不想打断你,但我们只允许每人提一个问题,所以请选择你最想得到答案的那个。

观众成员:好的。首先,考虑到目前市场上追逐交易的股权资金——私人股权资金——的海洋,以及随着优质交易数量的持续下降,交易质量不断下降,再加上这些私人股权基金的股权部分来自养老基金和大学捐赠基金,并使用银行提供的高杠杆借款,这看起来、感觉起来、闻起来都像一个即将破裂的泡沫,很可能对许多交易撮合者和投资者造成糟糕结局。在您看来,什么事件可能导致这个泡沫破裂,您认为这最终会如何收场?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,在你念出那串名单时,我们正在和这些人竞争,所以当你——(笑)——解释我们找到可买的东西有多么困难时,我开始哭了。私人股权活动的性质决定了它其实不是一个会破裂的泡沫。因为如果你经营一只大型私人股权基金,锁定200亿美元五年或更长时间,并购买那些不是每日定价的企业,实际上,即使你做得不好,也要很多年才能见分晓,而且在大多数情况下,即使人们想提前退出,也需要很多年才能退出私人股权基金。所以它不像高杠杆会导致不可流通证券之类的问题。投资者不能离开,记分牌也长期缺失。什么会减缓这种活动——或者可能减缓这种活动——是如果垃圾债券的收益率变得远高于高等级债券的收益率。

目前,垃圾债券收益率与高等级债券收益率之间的利差已降至非常低的水平,历史表明这种利差会周期性地大幅扩大。这会减缓交易,但不会让投资者拿回他们的钱。这类狂热活动的另一个方面是,如果你有一只200亿美元的基金,按2%收费,即每年4亿美元——对管理这些基金的人来说似乎是小钱,但在奥马哈听起来像是真金白银——如果你从那只200亿美元的基金每年获得4亿美元,你无法在把钱很好地投出去之前诚挚地开始另一只基金。很难回到你的投资者那里说,我还有180亿美元没投出去,请再给我钱设立另一只基金。所以有一种巨大的冲动要尽快投资,因为这是获得另一只基金和另一笔费用的方式。

这些人不是查理和我会特别有效与之竞争的企业竞争对手。我的意思是,他们——我们会永远持有我们买的任何东西。数学必须对我们有意义。我们不倾向于乐观假设,我们也不根据活动量获得报酬。但我认为还需要相当长的时间——很可能还需要相当长的时间——幻灭才会到来,资金才会停止流向这些推销者。而他们是否能继续做交易,将取决于人们是否愿意以我认为相当低的利率给他们大量融资。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。在你达到完全厌恶的状态后,这还可能持续很长时间。

沃伦·巴菲特:乐观的声音发言了。(笑声)

原文

5. Buffett sees no private equity “bubble” about to burst

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s get a map here. Here we are. We will start with area 1, which I think is over here, and there we are and we have a questioner.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Kevin Truitt (PH) from Chicago, Illinois. Thank you both for, again, hosting this “Woodstock for Capitalists” for your shareholders and fellow capitalists. I have two questions. My first question is for both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger.

WARREN BUFFETT: I don’t like to interrupt you, but we’re only letting everybody do one question, so pick whichever one you feel the strongest about getting an answer for, please.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK. First, given the ocean of equity money that is out there — private equity money — that is out there today chasing deals, and with the quality of the deals continually diminishing as the quantity of good deals continues to go down, and given the fact that these private equity funds are getting their equity portion of the money from pension funds and college endowments and using very high levels of borrowed money from the banks, this has the look, feel, and smell of a bubble that is about to burst and is likely to end badly for many of the deal-makers and the investors. What events, in your opinion, could cause this bubble to burst, and how do you think this is likely to all end?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, as you were reading off that list, we are competing with those people, so I started to cry as you — (laughs) — explained the difficulty we have in finding things to buy. The nature of the private equity activity is such that it really isn’t a bubble that bursts. Because if you’re running a large private equity fund and you lock up $20 billion for five or longer years and you buy businesses which are not priced daily, as a practical matter, the plug will not — even if you do a poor job, it’s going to take many years before the score is put up on the score board, and it takes many years, in most cases, for people to get out of the private equity fund even if they wished to earlier. So it does not — it’s not like a lot of leverage can lead to in-marketable securities or something there. And the investors can’t leave and the scorecard is lacking for a long time. What will slow down the activity — or what could slow down the activity — is if yields on junk bonds became much higher than yields on high-grade bonds.

Right now the spread between yields on junk bonds and high-grade bonds is down to a very low level, and history has shown that periodically that spread widens quite dramatically. That will slow down the deals, but it won’t cause the investors to get their money back. There’s one other aspect, of course, that — of this frenzied activity, you might say, in private equity is that if you have a $20 billion fund and you’re getting a 2 percent fee on it or $400 million a year, which seems like chump change to those that are managing them but sounds like real money in Omaha — if you’re getting 400 million a year from that $20 billion fund, you can’t start another fund with a straight face until you get that money pretty well invested. It’s very hard to go back to your investors and say, well, I’ve got 18 billion uninvested and I’d like you to give me money for another fund. So there’s a great compulsion to invest very quickly because it’s the way to get another fund and another bunch of fees coming in.

And those are not competitors for businesses that Charlie and I are going to be particularly effective in competing with. I mean, they — we are going to own anything we buy forever. The math has to make sense to us. We’re not given to optimistic assumptions, and we don’t get paid based on activity. But I think it will be quite some time before — it’s likely to be quite some time — before disillusionment sets in and the money quits flowing to these people that are promoting these. And whether they can continue to make deals will depend on whether people will give them lots of financing at what I would regard as quite low rates. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. It can continue to go on a long time after you’re in a state of total revulsion.

WARREN BUFFETT: The voice of optimism has spoken. (Laughter.)

6. 我没有足够努力”推销”伯克希尔的国际业务

沃伦·巴菲特:我们继续到2号区域。我应该一开始就提到,我们每人只接受一个问题,因为有很多人在等,有些人很擅长把四五个问题揉成一个,但我们——我们在拆解问题方面变得更擅长了,所以请尽量只提一个。2号区域,请。

观众成员:向你们所有人问好,我来自欧洲中部的德国波恩市。我叫诺曼·伦特罗普。我从1992年起就是伯克希尔的股东,也是韦斯科和科隆再保险的股东。我非常钦佩你们两位,再次感谢你们与我们分享智慧,并继续谦逊地管理伯克希尔,为我们所有人谋福利,没有收取2%和20%的高额费用,也没有股票期权计划。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:小心。你在给查理出主意。(笑声)

观众成员:我还想赞扬你们树立了另一个伟大的榜样,捐出大部分财富做慈善,并且以一种非常明智和无私的方式——基金会的名字不是你的。现在,我对另一位伟大的投资家约翰·坦普尔顿的言论有些不安,他继续说你们目光狭隘,没有更多地在海外投资。你们确实专注于美国,到目前为止国际投资相对较少。你们解释说,一家公司总部设在美国、伦敦、慕尼黑还是巴黎并不重要,你们会为这样的公司支付几乎与类似美国公司一样高的价格。你们敢用零花钱投资韩国股票。可口可乐多年前就完全全球化了;而好时却错失了全球化的机会,把巧克力的全球化留给了瑞士的莲特和史宾利。那么,要让你们通过大规模国际投资使伯克希尔完全全球化,需要什么条件?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这是个非常好的问题。我要说的是,我知道我大概至少在50年前就买了第一只美国以外的股票。我们并不是没有关注这个国家以外的可流通证券领域,我们也在那里做了一些投资。如果可口可乐总部在阿姆斯特丹、慕尼黑或亚特兰大,只要他们拥有那样的业务,对我们来说真的没什么区别。所以我们非常参与国际业务,但残酷的事实是,在购买整个企业方面,我们在美国以外的知名度和在美国相比根本不在同一水平线上——远远不及。当我们刚开始在美国发展时,实际上也没人知道伯克希尔,所以我们——我们在这里做了推销工作,但在国外——或者说我没有做好国外推销工作。感谢伊坦·韦特海默,他找到了我们。我认为他在很大程度上帮助我们提高了知名度。

我们对购买美国以外的可流通证券或整个企业没有任何偏见。伊坦甚至计划安排一个小活动,让我们进一步提高知名度——让伯克希尔在海外更知名——未来六到八个月内我会和他一起参与。但我们完全可以被合理批评为没有更努力地进入那个视野。我认为我们正在改善。我们持有一些非美国证券。我们持有股票——只是股票,可流通证券——我们持有两家总部在德国的公司,还有其他——正如有人指出的那样,例如,我们持有4%的浦项制铁股份,其总部在韩国。按当前市值计算,那是超过10亿美元的投资。我们还有——我能想到大概半打左右的美国以外可流通证券投资。

我们不需要在13F表格中报告这些——[首席财务官]马克·汉堡,我相信这点是对的——所以它们不一定像我们向SEC报告的国内投资那样被捕捉到。有一个问题——例如,在德国,如果我们的持股超过3%,我们就必须报告我们在德国的持股。如果一家公司市值100亿美元,这意味着达到3亿美元我们就必须告诉全世界我们在买什么,而告诉全世界我们在买什么不是查理和我最喜欢的活动。而且这往往会搞乱未来的购买计划。所以这个3%的门槛,在英国存在,在德国也存在,对我们来说,在积累股份方面是一个真正的劣势。但我可以向你们保证,整个世界绝对在我们的雷达屏上,我们也希望在世界雷达屏上。查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,是的。我要说的是,约翰·坦普尔顿通过很早就进入日本市场,在日本股票涨到30到40倍市盈率时大赚了一笔。那是一项非常令人钦佩的投资。但你知道,我们在同一时期也做得不错。(掌声)

原文

6. I didn’t do enough to “sell” Berkshire internationally

WARREN BUFFETT: We’ll go on to 2. And I should have mentioned at the start. We really only take one question per person because there’s a lot of people waiting and some people get very talented about rolling four or five into one, but we — we’ve gotten more talented about unraveling them, so try to keep it to one. Area 2, please.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Greetings to all of you from the Midwest of Europe from the city of Bonn in Germany. My name is Norman Rentrop. I’m a shareholder in Berkshire since 1992, as well as a shareholder in Wesco and Cologne Re. I’m a great admirer of both of you and want to thank you again for sharing your wisdom with us and for continuing to stay humble by managing Berkshire for the benefit of all of us without any big 2 and 20 percent fees, without stock option plans. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: Be careful. You’re giving Charlie ideas here. (Laughter)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: And I want to applaud you in setting another great example by donating most of your wealth to charity and for donating — (applause) — and for donating it in a very intelligent and selfless — that it’s not your name on the foundation — way. Now, I’m a little disturbed by the remarks from another great investor, from John Templeton, who continues to say that you are narrow-sighted in not investing more overseas. You do focus on the U.S. with relatively little, so far, internationally. You explained that it doesn’t really matter whether a company is headquartered in the U.S. or London or Munich or Paris, and that you would pay almost as high an amount for such companies as for similar U.S. companies. You were audacious to invest your petty cash in South Korean stocks. Coca-Cola went totally global many years ago; whereas, Hershey’s missed the opportunity to go global, leaving the chocolate globalization to Swiss-based Lindt & Sprungli. Now, what would it take you to go totally global with Berkshire by investing internationally in a big way?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s a very good question. And I would say that I know I probably bought my first stock outside the United States at least 50 years ago. It is not that we have not looked in the marketable securities field beyond this country, and we’ve made some investments there. It really wouldn’t make any difference to us if Coca-Cola was based in Amsterdam or Munich or Atlanta as long as they had the business they had. So we’re very involved in international business, but the hard fact is that in terms of buying entire businesses, we were simply not on the radar screen to the same extent — close to the same extend —outside the United States as we became in the United States. When we started in the United States, really, nobody knew anything about Berkshire, either, so we had — we had a selling job to do here, but we did not do the selling job — or I did not do the selling job — well abroad. And thanks to Eitan Wertheimer, he found us. And I think has contributed in a very significant way to getting us better known.

We have no bias against buying either marketable securities or entire businesses outside the United States. Eitan is even planning a little procedure to get us even better known — get Berkshire even better known — outside the United States, and I’m going to participate in that with him within the next six or eight months. But we can be very validly criticized for not being a better effort to get on that radar screen. I think we’re — I think it’s improving. We own a number of non-U.S. securities. We own stock in — just stock, marketable securities — we own two that are based in Germany, and we own others — as it’s been pointed out — we own, for example, 4 percent of POSCO, which is based in South Korea. That’s over a billion-dollar investment at current market. And we have — I can think of a half a dozen or so marketable securities investments outside the United States.

We don’t have to report those in the 13F — I believe I’m right on this, [CFO] Marc [Hamburg] — so they don’t necessarily get picked up the same way as do our domestic investments by reports we make to the SEC. There’s a problem — for example, in Germany we have to report our holdings in Germany if our holdings exceed 3 percent. Well, if you’re talking about a company with 10 billion in market value, that means at $300 million we have to tell the world what we’re buying, and telling the world what we’re buying is not the favorite activity of Charlie and myself. So — and it tends to screw up future buying. So that 3 percent threshold, which exists in the UK, exists in Germany, is a real minus to us, in terms of accumulating shares. But I can assure you that the entire world is definitely on our radar screen, and we hope to be on its. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well yes. I’d say that John Templeton made a fortune going into Japan very early and having the Japanese stocks go up to 30 or 40 times earnings. And that was a very admirable piece of investment. But, you know, we did all right in the same period. (Applause)

7. CEO薪酬是个”笑话”

沃伦·巴菲特:我们去3号台吧。

观众成员:大家好。(听不清)我大部分时间生活在印度,但现在在新泽西州霍博肯。沃伦,首先感谢你回复我的信。我拼错了你的名字,在我的家乡如果我也这么做,回信可能会是”先把我的名字写对再问问题”。所以再次感谢你。如今投资经理们以牺牲投资者利益为代价获益过多。我问你和查理的问题是,你认为管理者应该采用什么样的最佳结构/费用,让他们有机会在未来几十年最大化时间和金钱,同时公平对待职业——投资者和他自己?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:在回答之前,我应该先讲一个小故事。有点尴尬,但几年前我开始担心查理的听力。我的意思是,这个人是我45到50年的朋友。我真的不想让他面对这种明显的老化迹象。所以我去了医生那里,我说:“你知道,我有个好朋友。我觉得他听力不太好。我真的不想和他正面谈论这个问题,你觉得我该怎么做才能验证一下?“医生说:“嗯,站在房间对面,用正常的语调说话,看看会发生什么。“所以下次我和查理在一起时,我站在房间对面说:“查理,我觉得我们应该在30美元的价格买入通用汽车。你同意吗?“没有任何反应。没有任何反应。我走到房间中间说:“查理,我觉得我们应该在30美元的价格买入通用汽车。你同意吗?“没有变化。

走到他身边,把嘴凑到他耳边说:“查理,我觉得我们应该在30美元的价格买入通用汽车。你同意吗?“查理说:“这是第三次了,同意。“(笑声)所以,查理,你想回答那个问题吗?(笑声)

查理·芒格:是的。这个问题涉及高管薪酬不公平及其对投资者的影响。既然你现在知道了问题,你可以解决它了。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,查理和我在薪酬方面有很多话要说,有些话让我们反胃。不过我要说的是,用错了经理比用错了薪酬制度问题更大。我的意思是,谁来经营——你说出任何公司——宝洁、可口可乐、美国运通——任何薪酬罪过通常都比让平庸的人经营一家大公司的罪过要小得多。话虽如此,查理和我觉得薪酬有一种自然趋势——由于棘轮效应,由于其他人拿多少的公开信息,以及由于谈判过程中缺乏强度。我的意思是,你读到劳资合同,你知道,僵局持续数周,他们谈判到凌晨3点,双方都向媒体陈述自己的理由。我问你,你什么时候听说过薪酬委员会工作到凌晨4点,宣布僵局一周,无法达成协议?

这根本不会发生,因为CEO非常在意自己如何被支付,而对薪酬委员会来说——他们现在可能做得稍微好一点——但基本上是儿戏。当然,正如我过去指出的,我曾在19个董事会任职。他们让我加入了一个薪酬委员会,后来他们后悔了。你知道,他们找的是摇着尾巴的可卡犬加入薪酬委员会,而不是杜宾犬。我试图假装自己是可卡犬好加入一个,但没用。(笑声)但这不是——在谈判过程中没有均等的强度。一方极其在意,另一方不在意。正如查理过去指出的,驱动这种棘轮效应的真正原因是嫉妒。我在华尔街看到过。

你可以谈贪婪,但如果你付给某人200万美元,他们可能很开心,直到发现旁边的人赚了210万美元,然后他们就痛苦了。查理还指出,在七宗罪中,嫉妒可能是最愚蠢的,因为如果你嫉妒某人,你感觉糟透了,而对方完全不受影响。所以嫉妒带给你的只有胃里的翻腾之类的。相比之下,其他一些罪过比如暴食,我们即将要犯。(笑声)你知道,暴食有一些好处。我听说好色也有好处,但我让查理来解释。(笑声)但嫉妒,它的好处到底在哪里?但它确实引发了薪酬的棘轮效应。薪酬委员会坐下来。人力资源人员进来。人力资源人员知道CEO对他们的看法将决定他们的未来,人力资源部门推荐了一些薪酬顾问。

薪酬顾问知道他对其他公司的建议取决于这些人如何评价他。所以在这种情况下,你能想象这是一场公平的较量吗?这是个笑话。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。这个过程有一群叫做薪酬顾问的精彩人物在推波助澜。这让我想起一个老故事,妈妈问女儿为什么告诉人口普查员家里的男人因为贪污在监狱里。女儿说:“我不想承认他是个薪酬顾问。“(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:我们之后也会轮到你们其余的行业。不要因为我们还没攻击你们就沾沾自喜——有人递给我一张纸条。我们这里大约有27000人。分会场都满了,展览厅里也会有很多人。(掌声)

原文

7. CEO compensation is a “joke”

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s go to station 3, please.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. (Inaudible). I lived most of my life in India, but now in Hoboken, New Jersey. Warren, first thank you for replying to my letter. I misspelled your name, and where I come from if I did the same thing, the reply would have been, more on, get my name correct before asking a question. So thank you once again. Investment managers nowadays are benefiting a lot more at the expense of the investors and the (inaudible). My question is both to you and Charlie is, what do you think is the best structure/fees that managers should have that will give him an opportunity to maximize the time (inaudible) and money (inaudible) over the next few decades and being fair to the profession — the investors and himself? Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Before I answer that, I think I should tell you a very short story. It’s a little embarrassing, but I got worried a few years ago about Charlie’s hearing. But I mean, the guy’s been my pal for 45 or 50 years. I didn’t really want to confront him with this apparent evidence of old age. So I went to a doctor and I said, “You know, I got this good pal. I don’t think he’s hearing so well. I really don’t want to confront him with it, so what do you suggest I do to check this out?” He said, “Well, stand across the room, talk in a normal tone of voice, see what happens.” So the next time I was with Charlie, I got across the room and I said, “Charlie, I think we ought to buy General Motors at 30. Do you agree?” Not a flicker. Not a flicker. I went halfway across the room. I said, “Charlie, I think we ought to buy General Motors at 30. Do you agree?” Nothing changes.

Get right next to him, put my voice in his ear and said, “Charlie, I think we ought to buy General Motors at 30. Do you agree?” Charlie said, “For the third time, yes.” (Laughter) So, Charlie, would you like to address that question? (Laughter)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes. The question addressed the problem of unfairness of executive compensation and the effects of that unfairness on investors. And now that you know the question, you can solve the problem. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, Charlie and I have plenty to say about compensation, and some of it makes our stomach turn. I will say this, though. There are more problems with having the wrong manager than with having the wrong compensation system. I mean, it is enormously important who runs — you name the company — Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, American Express — and any compensation sins are generally of minor importance compared to the sin of having somebody that’s mediocre running a huge company. That said, Charlie and I think that compensation has — there’s a natural tendency — because of ratcheting, because of the publicity of what other people get, and because of the lack of intensity in the bargaining process. I mean, you read about labor contracts, you know, where impasses go on for weeks and where they negotiate till 3 in the morning and, you know, both sides take their case to the press and everything. I ask you, when have you heard of a comp committee, you know, working until 4 in the morning, declaring an impasse for a week, not being able to make a deal?

It just doesn’t happen because the CEO cares enormously how he or she is paid, and to the comp committee — and they’re doing, perhaps, a little better job now — but it’s basically play money. And, of course, as I’ve pointed out in the past, I’ve been on 19 boards. They put me on one comp committee and they regretted it subsequently. You know, they are looking for cocker spaniels with their tails wagging to put on comp committees and, you know, they’re not looking for Dobermans. And I try to pretend I’m a cocker spaniel just to get on one, but it doesn’t work. (Laughter) But it is not — there is not a parity of intensity in the bargaining process. One guy cares enormously and the others don’t. And as Charlie has pointed out in the past, what really drives a lot of this ratcheting impact is envy. I saw that on Wall Street.

You can talk about greed, but if you paid somebody $2 million, they might be quite happy until they found out the guy next to them made 2 million-one, and then they were miserable. And Charlie has also pointed out that envy, of the seven deadly sins, is probably the dumbest, because if you’re envious of somebody, you feel terrible and, you know, the other guy isn’t bothered at all. So all you get out of envy is this miserable grinding in your stomach and all that sort of thing. You know, compare that to some of the other sins like gluttony, which we are about to engage in. (Laughter) You know, there’s some upside to gluttony. I’m told there’s upside to lust, but I’ll leave that to Charlie to explain. (Laughter) But envy, where the hell is the upside, you know? But it does produce this ratcheting effect in pay. The comp committee sits down. The human relations person comes in. The human relations person knows what the CEO thinks of them is going to determine their future, and the human relations department recommends some comp consultant.

The comp consultant knows that his recommendation to other firms is dependent on what these people say about him. So under those circumstances, you know, can you imagine that it’s anything like a fair fight? It’s a joke. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes. The process is contributed to by a wonderful bunch of people called compensation consultants. And that reminds me of the old story where the mother asked the child why she told the census taker that the man of the house was in prison for embezzlement. And the child said, “I didn’t want to admit he was a compensation consultant.” (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: We’ll get around to the rest of you later on, too. Don’t feel smug because we haven’t attacked your — I just had a note handed to me. We do have about 27,000 people here. The overflow rooms are full, and we will have a whole bunch in the exhibition hall as well. (Applause)

8. 公务机可以是有益的

沃伦·巴菲特:我们去4号台吧。

观众成员:是的。早上好。我是罗伯(听不清)。我来自英国,从瑞士专程赶来参加今天的会议。这个问题查理会喜欢。大卫·耶马克有一项研究表明,拥有私人飞机的公司比同行表现差4%。您用什么标准来判断管理层是否是资金的好管家?

沃伦·巴菲特:他是问你的吗,查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,他提到私人飞机可能是高管过度消费的一个指标。我要报告的是,我们坚决支持私人飞机。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:我们甚至自己付钱。(笑)查理以前只坐公交车,而且只有当他们提供老年人折扣时才坐。但最近几年,我让他感到羞愧,他终于买了自己的NetJets股份——我也有自己的——我有两份NetJets股份。实际上,伯克希尔在其许多业务中,包括在集团层面,因为使用公务机而显著受益。我不知道哪些交易因此没有做成,但我知道——抱歉——我不会对飞越几千英里追逐一个又一个交易有同样的热情。我在我们的一些其他业务中也看到了这一点。所以它一直是一个有价值的商业工具。像其他任何东西一样,它也可能被滥用。我记得很多很多年前,我们持有一家上市公司的股票,CEO在来见我的路上在奥马哈停留,他解释说他们用爱达荷州的一家杂货连锁店之类的地方作为所有新产品的测试案例。他们会去那里拜访,因为他们在那里还有一个度假小屋。

我的意思是,任何制度都可能被滥用。但妥善使用的话,我认为公务机对伯克希尔来说是一笔真正的资产。我再回到薪酬问题一小会儿。我是说,薪酬不是火箭科学。我们有非常简单的制度来补偿那些你在电影中看到的人。他们都是了不起的人。我们根据他们可以控制且我们在意的指标来补偿他们。我们不把事情搞复杂,我们不为他们无法控制的事情付钱。我的意思是,我们去年讨论过在铜、石油等大宗商品行业该怎么做。如果油价从每桶30美元涨到60美元,石油高管完全没有理由因此获得更多报酬。他们没让油价涨到60美元。

如果他们的发现成本很低——这是他们能控制的,也很重要——我会为此疯狂付钱,因为一个能以每桶6美元发现并开发石油储备的人,比一个以每桶10美元发现和开发的人价值高得多,假设储备质量相似。这是你雇佣这个人要干的工作。但油价跟他们完全无关,因为油价上涨就给他们巨额支票,或因为油价下跌就削减他们的薪酬——如果油价下跌,而有个人为我们工作,拥有最低的发现成本,我们会疯狂地付钱给他。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。嗯,我想回到公务机的话题。如果权力的排场被严重滥用,我想你会发现其中一些公司会让投资者失望。你知道,人类早就知道过度迷恋权力的排场会适得其反。最被人们记住的在极大繁荣时期统治的罗马皇帝是马可·奥勒留,他完全反对权力的排场,尽管他拥有一切权力。所以我认为所有这些事情都可能被滥用,我认为处理这个问题的最好方式是提供相反行为的例子。

沃伦·巴菲特:查理,有个(听不清)——

查理·芒格:我想我该到这边来了。

沃伦·巴菲特:这就是我们这里的公司福利,很多软糖,很多花生脆。我向所有人推荐这种饮食。

原文

8. Corporate jets can be good

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s go to number 4.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes. Good morning. I’m Rob (inaudible). I’m from the UK, and I traveled from Switzerland to be here today. This is a question that Charlie will like. There’s a study by David Yermack that companies with private jets underperform their peers by 4 percent. What is the yardstick that you use to judge whether people are good stewards of money — management?

WARREN BUFFETT: Did he direct that to you, Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, he referred to private jets being a possible indication of executive excess. I want to report that we’re solidly in favor of private jets. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: We even pay for them ourselves. (Laughs) Charlie used to only — he traveled on the bus, and only then when they offered a senior citizen’s discount. But in recent years I’ve shamed him into getting his own NetJets share — I have my own — I have two NetJets shares. Actually, Berkshire is significantly better off in a number of its businesses, and including at the corporate level, because we use corporate jets. I don’t know which deals wouldn’t have been made, but I do know that — excuse me — I would not have had the same enthusiasm for traveling thousands of miles to go after deal after deal and so on. And I see what it produces at our — a number of our other businesses. So it has been a valuable business tool. It can be misused like anything else. I remember many, many years ago, we owned stock in a public company, and the CEO stopped off in Omaha on the way to see me, and he explained that they use some grocery chain in Idaho or something to be sort of their test case on all new products. And they would go visit it because they also had this lodge out there.

I mean, you can abuse any system. But properly used, I would say that corporate jets have been a real asset to Berkshire. I would go back to this comp question just one second, too. I mean, comp is not rocket science. I mean, we have very simple systems that compensate those people whose pictures you saw during the movie. They’re terrific people. We compensate them based on things that are under their control and that we care about. And we don’t make it complicated, and we don’t pay them for things that are happening that they have nothing to do with. I mean, we talked last year about what you do in a commodity business like copper, oil. I mean, if oil goes from $30 to $60 a barrel, there’s no reason in the world why oil executives should get paid more for what’s going on. They didn’t get it to $60 a barrel.

If they have low finding costs, which is under their control, and which is important, I would pay like crazy for that, because a person who finds oil and develops reserves at $6 a barrel is worth a lot more than somebody that finds and develops them at $10 a barrel, assuming they’re similar quality reserves. That is the job that you hire the person for. But the price of oil, they’ve got nothing to do with it, and to hand them huge checks because oil goes up or to cut them back because it goes down — if oil went down and somebody had the lowest finding costs that was working for us, we would pay them like crazy. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. Well, I’d like to go back to that corporate jet thing. If the trappings of power are greatly abused, I think you would find a correlation that some of those companies would be disappointing to investors. And, you know, man has known for a long time that getting too enchanted with the trappings of power is counterproductive. The Roman emperor that’s most remembered as presiding over a period of great felicity was Marcus Aurelius, who was totally against the trappings of power even though he had them all — he had all the power. So I think all these things can be abused, and I think the best way to tackle a subject is to provide examples of contrary behavior.

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie, have a (inaudible) —

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think I’ll go over here.

WARREN BUFFETT: This is our idea of corporate benefits up here, lots of fudge, lots of peanut brittle. I recommend the diet to everyone.

9. 当人们恐慌时,“非凡”的事情可能发生

沃伦·巴菲特:我们去5号台吧。

观众成员:大卫·温特斯,新泽西州山湖市。请问您认为信贷紧缩(以及可能更高的利率)对伯克希尔·哈撒韦会有什么影响?希望是正面的影响。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,当别人受苦时我们确实受益。这并不意味着我们享受他们的痛苦,但在金融市场混乱的时期——比如2002年垃圾债券市场的情况,比如1974年股票市场的情况。所以我不认为你一定会看到信贷紧缩。我认为大多数当局非常不愿意真的踩刹车。你知道,太容易找出是谁踩了刹车。但你很可能会看到一些外生事件开始在市场中自我强化。事实上,我认为如果系统真的受到冲击,市场比过去大多数时期更倾向于自我强化。这将导致信贷利差大幅扩大,股票价格更便宜,所有这些都对伯克希尔有利,因为在这种时候我们通常至少有一些资金可用。会有这样的时期。如果你回到三四十年前,当信贷紧缩时,实际上根本借不到钱。查理和我在大约40年前经历了几个这样的时期。

我们在大约40年前试图收购芝加哥的一家银行,世界上唯一愿意借钱给我们的人——因为银行不借钱给收购——我们在科威特找到了一些人,他们说可以借给我们第纳尔。我们想,借钱可能没问题,但等到我们需要还第纳尔的时候,他们可能会告诉我们第纳尔值多少钱,所以我们放弃了那个交易。那时你经历的是真正的信贷紧缩。当然,整个——不是全部——我认为美联储成立的主要原因就是信贷的大幅紧缩,特别是在中西部这样的地方,他们依赖于大城市的代理银行,当那些银行出问题时,这里的银行就被切断资金。我们确实需要一个系统,除了故意设计外,不会发生这种情况。我认为美联储按设计可能不会制造信贷危机。查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,上次我们遇到那种信贷紧缩时,我们赚了,大概,三四十亿美元?而且我们行动积极。整个投资世界越来越竞争激烈,如果你说的是真的会搞乱整个文明的信贷紧缩,没人会欢迎。我预测,如果我们真的在我们所处的这个充满过度、引起如此多嫉妒和怨恨的时期之后,遇到一次真正的大信贷紧缩,我们会得到大多数人不喜欢的立法。

沃伦·巴菲特:乔纳森·奥尔特大约一年前出版了一本书,讲述了[富兰克林]罗斯福总统[1933年]就职后的头一百天,书的性质也谈到了之前的一些日子。如果你想找一个例子——我是说,这个国家当时处于悬崖边缘,基本上,罗斯福只要想通过任何法案都能通过,而且速度极快,就像他们起草法案一样快。那是好事,你知道,银行关门,人们用代金券交易等等。所以没人想回到那种状态,自大萧条以来我们对这类事情了解得更多了。我不认为你会看到一次有组织的信贷紧缩。现在,1998年秋天,当长期资本管理公司陷入困境时,你经历了信贷市场的冻结。那不是美联储式的有组织紧缩。只是人们恐慌了,即使是最安全的工具和信贷利差也出现了前所未有的情况。

这是一个相当有趣的例子,因为那不是100年前。那是不到10年前。华尔街有各种各样高智商的人。有各种各样有现金可用的人。而信贷市场发生了一些非常不寻常的事情,仅仅是因为人们恐慌了,而且他们觉得别人也会恐慌。你在市场上得到了这些第二、第三级的连锁反应。我们会再次看到这类事情。不会完全相同,但正如马克·吐温所说,历史不会重演,但会押韵。我们会遇到一些和1998年押韵的事情。

原文

9. “Extraordinary” things can happen when people panic

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s go to number 5.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: David Winters, Mountain Lakes, New Jersey. Could you please explain what you believe the impact and, hopefully benefit, of a credit contraction would be on Berkshire Hathaway, and maybe higher interest rates as well?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we do benefit when others suffer. That doesn’t mean we enjoy their suffering, but times of chaos in financial markets, the situation that existed in junk bonds in 2002, the situation that existed in equities, you know, back in 1974. So I don’t think you’ll necessarily see a contraction in credit. That — I think most authorities are very reluctant to really step on the brakes. You know, it’s too easy to figure out who did step on the brakes. But you could very well see some exogenous event that starts feeding on itself in markets. In fact, I think it’s much more prone to feed on itself in markets than in most periods in the past, if you really got a shock to the system. And that would result in a huge widening of credit spreads, cheaper equity prices, all kinds of things that actually are helpful to Berkshire because we usually have at least some money around to do something at times like that. There will be periods like that. If you go back 30 or 40 years, when credit contracted, it just really wasn’t available. Charlie and I went through a couple periods like that.

We were trying to buy a bank in Chicago 40 — 40 or so years ago, and the only people that would lend it to us in the world — because banks weren’t lending for acquisitions — we found some people over in Kuwait who said they’d lend it to us in dinars. And we thought, you know, it might be fine to borrow it, but when it came time to pay them back the dinars, they would probably be telling us what the dinar was worth, so we passed on that particular deal. But you had real credit contractions then. And, of course, the whole reason — not — I would say the major reason the Federal Reserve was established was the huge contractions in credit that were felt, particularly here in places like the Midwest where they were dependent on correspondent banks in the larger cities, and when those banks had problems, the banks here got shut off. And we really needed a system that would not have that happen except by design. And I would say the Fed, by design, is probably not going to produce any credit crunches. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the last time we had that credit contraction, we made, what, a quick 3 or $4 billion? And we were acting with vigor. The whole investment world is more and more competitive, and if you talk about a real credit contraction, which gums up the whole civilization, no one would welcome that. And I would predict that if we ever had a really big credit contraction after a period like the one we’re in with all this excess, which is causing so much envy and resentment, that we would get legislation that most of us wouldn’t like.

WARREN BUFFETT: There’s a book by Jonathan Alter that came out about a year ago that talks about the first hundred days after [President Franklin] Roosevelt took over [in 1933], and by the nature of the book it tells about some of the days before that, too. But

2007年股东大会

第二部分/第六部分

**查理·芒格:**嗯,不是做空。但那些交割延迟有时反映了清算过程中巨大的漏洞,文明社会在证券交易的清算过程中存在巨大漏洞是不好的。这有点像在你的核电站管理中出现大量漏洞一样。拥有导致大量人们忽视的财务风险的漏洞,可不是个好主意。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, not on shorting. But those delays in delivering sometimes reflect a tremendous slop in the clearance process, and it is not good for a civilization to have huge slop in the clearance processes for its security trades. That would be sort of like having a lot of slop in the management of your atomic power plants. It’s not a good idea to have slop that causes a lot of financial exposure that people are ignoring.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**查理,回顾你的律师执业生涯。如果我买了一千股通用汽车,而我的经纪人没有交割给我,我要求他交割,但一周、两周或三周后他都没有交割给我,情况会怎样?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie, reach back into your law practice. If I buy a thousand shares of General Motors, and my broker doesn’t deliver it to me, and I ask him to deliver it and he doesn’t deliver it to me after a week or two weeks or three weeks, what’s the situation?

**查理·芒格:**嗯,如果你是个散户,你可能要等一段时间。很多其他交易——清算系统确实会要求人们提供抵押品等等。但很多——拿衍生品交易来说。衍生品交易中有很多漏洞。如果很多人想同时做点什么,清算问题就会很糟糕。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, if you’re a private customer, you may wait a while. And a lot of the other trades — the clearance systems do cause people to put up collateral and so on. But a lot of — take derivative trading. There’s a lot of slop in derivative trading. And the clearance problem would be awful if a lot of people wanted to do something at once.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**但是,如果三周后我要求交割,我能走进法庭说,我要我的股票,我已经给了你钱了吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: But if I demand delivery after three weeks, can I walk into court and say I want my stock, I’ve given you the money?

**查理·芒格:**我认为没有任何法院能够仅仅因为你想要就给你签发一张股票证书。不,是清算系统辜负了你。你当然可以大喊大叫,你最终可能会有某种补救措施,但是——

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I don’t think there’s any court that can issue you a stock certificate just because you want it. No, the clearance system is failing you. Why, you can scream a lot, and you may have some ultimate remedy, but there’s —

**沃伦·巴菲特:**我会找别人代表我。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I’ll get somebody else to represent me. (Laughter)

13. “赌博是对无知的征税”

**沃伦·巴菲特:**第9个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 9.

**参会者:**你好,你好。我叫约翰·福滕贝格,来自德国汉诺威。您认为博彩公司会有光明的未来吗?谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, hello. My name is Johann Fortenberg (PH) from Hanover, Germany. Do you think gambling companies will have a great future? Thank you.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**什么公司?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: What kind of company?

**查理·芒格:**博彩公司。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Gambling companies.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**博彩公司。如果它们合法,博彩公司会有很好的未来。你知道,哪些公司或者任何具体情况,我对此一无所知。但人们赌博的欲望,顺便说一句,也包括在股市中赌博。日内交易,我敢说,很多时候非常接近定义的赌博——。但人们喜欢赌博,你知道。我的意思是,如果超级碗开赛——更好的是,如果一场极其乏味的橄榄球赛正在进行,但你无事可做,你和别人坐在一起,如果你们为比赛下几块钱的注,你可能会更享受比赛。正如你所知,我的意思是,我们承保飓风,所以我看天气频道。但那是一个——(笑声)它可能令人兴奋。(笑声)但是人们——人类的赌博倾向是巨大的。现在,当它只在——内华达州合法化的时候——你必须走很远的路,或者违反一些法律,才能进行任何像样的赌博。

但是,随着各州了解到——你知道,这是一笔多么巨大的税收来源,它们逐渐让人们赌博变得越来越容易。而且,相信我,越容易,赌博的人就会越多。我的意思是,当我的——我的孩子们在这里,40年前我买了一台老虎机,把它放在我们家的三楼,我可以给我的孩子们任何他们想要的零花钱,只要是用一角硬币支付。我的意思是,到晚上我就全赢回来了。(笑声)我以为这对他们是个好教训。他们不必去拉斯维加斯玩,但相信我,当它放在三楼时,他们能找到它,你知道。而且我的赔付率也很糟糕,但我就是那样的父亲。(笑声)但是——你知道,人们总是想赌博。

出于这个原因,我特别认为,在友好赌博或类似的事情上,我并不是个拘谨的人,但我的确认为,在很大程度上,赌博是对无知的征税。我的意思是,如果你想对无知的人征税,对那些明知赔率对自己不利还去做事的人征税,你只需设立起来,像我这样的人就不用交税了。我真的不——我发现这——当一个政府利用其公民的弱点而不是为他们服务时,我觉得这在某种程度上是令人反感的。而且,相信我,当一个政府——(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Gambling companies. Gambling companies will have a terrific future, if they’re legal. You know, which ones or anything, I don’t know anything about that. But the desire of people to gamble and to gamble in stocks, incidentally, too. Day trading, I would say, very often was — came very close to gambling as defined —. But people like to gamble, you know. I mean, it’s a — if the Super Bowl is on — better yet, if a terribly boring football game is on but you don’t have anything to do, and you’re sitting there with somebody else, you’re probably going to enjoy the game more if you bet a few bucks on it one way or the other. As you know, I mean, we insure hurricanes, so I watch the Weather Channel. But that’s a — (Laughter) It can be exciting. (Laughter) But people — the human propensity to gamble is huge. Now, when it was legalized only in — pretty much in Nevada — you had to go to some distance, or break some laws, to do any serious gambling.

But as the states learned to — you know, what a great source of revenue it was, they gradually made it easier and easier and easier for people to gamble. And, believe me, the easier it’s made, the more people will gamble. I mean, when I was — my children are here, and 40 years ago I bought a slot machine and I put it up on our third floor, and I could give me kids any allowance they wanted as long as it was in dimes. I mean, I had it all back by nightfall. (Laughter) I thought it would be a good lesson for them. Now they weren’t going to Las Vegas to do it, but believe me when it was on the third floor, they could find it, you know. And my payout ratio was terrible, too, but that’s the kind of father I was. (Laughter) The — but gambling, you know, people are always going to want to do it.

And for that reason, I particularly think that access — you know, in terms of friendly gambling or anything like that, I’m not a prude about it, but I do think that to quite an extent, gambling is a tax on ignorance. I mean, if you want to tax the ignorant, people who will do things with the odds against them, you know, you just put it in and guys like me don’t have to pay taxes. I really don’t — I find that — I find it kind of socially revolting when a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry rather than acts to serve them. And, believe me, when a government — (Applause)

**沃伦·巴菲特:**当一个政府让人们很容易就用他们的社保支票去拉老虎机或者参与彩票或其他什么的时候,这是一个相当 cynical 的行为。这很管用。这是一个相当 cynical 的行为。而且它减轻了那些不会上当的人、那些不梦想着拥有一辆车而不是实际拥有一辆车的人、那些不梦想着拥有一台彩电而不是实际拥有一台彩电的人的税负。所以这不是政府的最佳表现,而且我认为随着时间的推移,其他事情也会由此产生。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: When a government makes it easy for people to take their Social Security checks and start pulling handles or participating in lotteries or whatever it may be, it’s a pretty cynical act. It works. It’s a pretty cynical act. And it relieves taxes on those, you know, who don’t fall for those or who don’t — who aren’t dreaming about having a car instead of actually having a car or dreaming about a color TV instead of having one. So it’s not government at its best, and I think other things flow from that over time, too. Charlie?

**查理·芒格:**你知道,我认为赌场使用巧妙的心理技巧来让人们伤害自己。赌场里无疑有很多无害的娱乐,但也有大量由赌场故意造成的严重伤害。这是一个肮脏的行业,我不认为你会很快在伯克希尔·哈撒韦看到一家赌场。(掌声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: You know, I would argue that the gambling casinos use clever psychological tricks to cause people to hurt themselves. There is undoubtedly a lot of harmless amusement in the casinos, but there’s also a lot of grievous injury that is deliberately caused by the casinos. It’s a dirty business, and I don’t think you’ll find a casino soon in Berkshire Hathaway. (Applause)

14. 如何成为更好的投资者

**沃伦·巴菲特:**请第10个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 10, please.

**参会者:**早上好。我是来自旧金山的托马斯·加梅。我17岁,这是我连续第十次参加股东大会。(掌声)

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning. I’m Thomas Gamay (PH) from San Francisco. I’m 17-years-old and this is my tenth consecutive annual meeting. (Applause)

**沃伦·巴菲特:**那现在你至少应该是个博士了。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: You must be a Ph.D. by now at least.

**参会者:**巴菲特先生和芒格先生,我很好奇,你们认为成为更好投资者的最佳方法是什么?我应该读MBA吗?获得更多工作经验?阅读更多查理·芒格的年鉴?还是这纯粹是遗传的,我无法控制?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, I’m curious about what you think is the best way to become a better investor. Should I get an MBA? Get more work experience? Read more Charlie Munger almanacs or merely is it genetic and out of my hands?

**沃伦·巴菲特:**嗯,我认为你应该阅读所有你能找到的东西。就我自己而言,我可以告诉你,我认为到我十岁的时候——我知道到我十岁的时候——我已经读完了奥马哈公共图书馆里所有与投资有关的书,而且很多书我都读了两遍。所以我认为没有什么比阅读更重要了,而且不限于仅仅阅读投资方面的书籍。你只需要用各种相互竞争的想法填满你的大脑,然后随着时间的推移,梳理出哪些真正有意义。然后,一旦你做了大量这样的工作,我认为你必须跳入水中,因为纸上投资和用真金白银投资,你知道,就像读一本爱情小说和做点别的事情的差别一样。(笑声)没有什么比实际拥有一些投资经验更好的了。你很快就会发现你是否喜欢它。如果你喜欢它,如果它让你兴奋,你知道,你可能会做得很好。而且你开始得越早越好,从阅读的角度来说。

但是,你知道,我19岁时读了一本书,这本书奠定了我此后思考投资的框架。我的意思是,我现在76岁做的事情,和19岁时从一本书里得到的思维模式是一样的。我也读了所有其他的书,但是如果你——你必须读很多书才能知道哪些书真正能打动你,哪些想法随着时间的推移能脱颖而出。所以我会说,阅读,然后,以一种不会在财务上伤害你的小规模方式,自己做一些投资。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think you should read everything you can. I can tell you in my own case, I think by the time I was — well, I know by the time I was ten — I’d read every book in the Omaha Public Library that had anything to do with investing, and many of them I’d read twice. So I don’t think there’s anything like reading, and not just as limited to investing at all. But you’ve just got to fill up your mind with various competing thoughts and sort them out as to what really makes sense over time. And then once you’ve done a lot of that, I think you have to jump in the water, because investing on paper and doing — you know, and investing with real money, you know, is like the difference between reading a romance novel and doing something else. (Laughter) There is nothing like actually having a little experience in investing. And you soon find out whether you like it. If you like it, if it turns you on, you know, you’re probably going to do well on it. And the earlier you start, the better, in terms of reading.

But, you know, I read a book at age 19 that formed my framework for thinking about investments ever since. I mean, what I’m doing today at 76 is running things through the same thought pattern that I got from a book I read when I was 19. And I read all the other books, too, but if you — and you have to read a lot of them to know which ones really do jump out at you and which ideas jump out at you over time. So I would say that read and then, on a small scale in a way that can’t hurt you financially, do some of it yourself. Charlie?

**查理·芒格:**嗯,伯克希尔的董事桑迪·戈特斯曼,经营着一家规模庞大且成功的投资机构。你可以从他雇佣员工的做法中看出他认为什么能让人学会成为优秀的投资者。当一个年轻人来找桑迪时,无论他多年轻,他都会问一个非常简单的问题。他问:“你拥有什么,以及你为什么拥有它?”如果你对这个话题还不够感兴趣,以至于还没有这种参与,那么,他宁愿你去别处看看。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, Sandy Gottesman, who is a Berkshire director, runs a large and successful investment operation, and you can tell what he thinks causes people to learn to be good investors by noticing his employment practices. When a young man comes to Sandy, he asks a very simple question, no matter how young the man is. He says, “What do you own and why do you own it?” And if you haven’t been interested enough in the subject to have that involvement already, why, he’d rather you go somewhere else.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**是的。那种你拥有一家企业的整个想法,你知道,对投资过程至关重要。如果你要买一个农场,你会说,我要买这个160英亩的农场,因为我预计这个农场每英亩能产120蒲式耳玉米或45蒲式耳大豆,我可以买——你知道,你会经历整个过程。这将是一个量化的决定,并且基于相当可靠的信息。它不会基于你那天在电视上看到的什么,不会基于你邻居跟你说的什么,或诸如此类的事情。股票也是一样。我以前总是建议我的学生拿一个这样的黄色便签本,如果他们要在30美元的价格买入100股通用汽车,而通用汽车的总股本大概是6亿股或稍少一点,他们就说,“我要以180亿美元的价格买下整个通用汽车公司,原因如下。”

如果他们不能就这个话题写一篇像样的文章,他们就完全没有理由在每股30美元的价格买入100股、10股甚至1股,因为他们没有用商业标准来检验它。养成这样思考的习惯,你知道,桑迪会根据你回答前两个问题的情况,接着提问,让你必须捍卫你为什么认为那个企业在你买入的价格上是便宜的。任何其他的答案,你都不及格。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. It’s very — that whole idea that you own a business, you know, is vital to the investment process. If you were going to buy a farm, you’d say, I’m buying this 160-acre farm because I expect that the farm will produce 120 bushels an acre of corn or 45 bushels an acre of soybeans and I can buy — you know, you go through the whole process. It’d be a quantitative decision and it would be based on pretty solid stuff. It would not be based on, you know, what you saw on television that day. It would not be based on, you know, what your neighbor said to you or anything of the sort. It’s the same thing with stocks. I used to always recommend to my students that they take a yellow pad like this and if they’re buying a hundred shares of General Motors at 30 and General Motors has whatever it has out, 600 million shares or a little less, that they say, “I’m going to buy the General Motors company for $18 billion, and here’s why.”

And if they can’t give a good essay on that subject, they’ve got no business buying 100 shares or ten shares or one share at $30 per share because they are not subjecting it to business tests. And to get in the habit of thinking that way, you know, Sandy would have followed it up with the questions, based on how you answered the first two questions, that made you defend exactly why you thought that business was cheap at the price at which you are buying it. And any other answer, you’d flunk.

15. 何时不需要巨大的安全边际

**沃伦·巴菲特:**第11个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 11.

**参会者:**巴菲特先生和芒格先生,我是来自澳大利亚墨尔本的马克·拉比诺夫。我只想问,在投资各种普通股时,您如何判断正确的安全边际?例如,对于一个占主导地位、历史悠久、稳定的企业,您会要求10%的安全边际吗?如果是这样,对于较弱的企业,您会如何提高这个标准?谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, I’m Marc Rabinov from Melbourne, Australia. I just wanted to ask you, how do you judge the right margin of safety to use when investing in various common stocks? For example, in a dominant, long-standing, stable business, would you demand a 10 percent margin of safety and, if so, how would you increase this in a weaker business? Thank you.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**我们倾向于那些我们真正认为知道答案的企业。因此,如果一个企业到了我们认为其所在行业、竞争地位或任何方面都如此不确定,以至于我们无法真正得出一个数字时,我们不会试图通过设置一个特别大的安全边际来弥补这类事情。我们真的想去寻找一些我们更了解的东西。所以如果我们买入像——喜诗糖果这样的企业,或者像可口可乐这样的股票,我们不认为我们需要一个巨大的安全边际,因为我们不认为我们的假设会在任何重大方面出错。我们真正想做的是买入一家优秀的企业,这意味着这家企业将在一个非常长的时期内,在所用资本上获得高回报,并且我们认为管理层会善待我们。当我们找到具备这些因素的企业时,我们不必大幅减价。

我们很乐意在它以40美分兑1美元的价格出售时找到它们,但我们也会在更接近1美元兑1美元的价格买入。我们不喜欢支付1美元兑1美元,但我们会支付接近的价格。如果我们真遇到了——你知道,当我们看到一个伟大的企业时,就像如果你看到有人走进门,你不知道他们是300磅还是325磅。你仍然知道他们胖,对吧?所以如果我们看到某个东西在财务上“胖”,我们就不担心精确性。如果我们能在那个特定例子中,以相当于270磅的价格买入,我们会感觉很好。但是如果我们发现某些东西的竞争方面——正是企业的性质决定了你确实无法预见未来5年、10年或20年,因为投资就是预见。你不会因为已经发生的事情而得到回报。你只能因为未来将要发生的事情而得到回报。

过去只有在能让你洞察未来的程度上才是有用的,而有时过去并不能让你洞察未来。在其他情况下,比如你假设的那个稳定企业,它可能确实为你提供了未来可能发生事情的相当好的指引,那么你不需要一个巨大的安全边际。你应该有一些——你应该总是觉得你得到的比你付出的价值略多一点,有时我们能够以相当于其价值四分之一的价格买入优秀的企业,但我们最近没见过那些——嗯,我们最近在韩国看到了——但你不经常看到这类事情。这是否意味着你应该坐等它们回来10年或——你知道,等待10年或15年?这不是我们的做法。如果我们能以合理的估值买入好企业,我们会继续这样做。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We favor the businesses where we really think we know the answer. And, therefore, if a business gets to the point where we think the industry in which it operates, the competitive position or anything is so chancy that we can’t really come up with a figure, we don’t really try to compensate for that sort of thing by having some extra large margin of safety. We really want to try to go on to something that we understand better. So if we buy something like — See’s Candy as a business or Coca-Cola as a stock, we don’t think we need a huge margin of safety because we don’t think we’re going to be wrong about our assumptions in any material way. What we really want to do is buy a business that’s a great business, which means that business is going to earn a high return on capital employed for a very long period of time, and where we think the management will treat us right. We don’t have to mark those down a lot when we find those factors.

We’d love to find them when they’re selling at 40 cents on the dollar but we will buy those as much closer to a dollar on the dollar. We don’t like to pay a dollar on the dollar, but we’ll pay something close. And if we really get to something — you know, when we see a great business, it’s like if you see some — somebody walk in the door, you don’t know whether they weigh 300 pounds or 325 pounds. You still know they’re fat, right, you know? And so if we see something we know it’s fat, financially, we don’t worry about being precise. And if we can come in, in that particular example, at the equivalent of 270 pounds, we’ll feel good. But if we find something where the competitive aspects are — it’s just the nature of the business that you really can’t see out five or 10 or 20 years because that’s what investing is, is seeing out. You don’t get paid for what’s already happened. You only get paid for what’s going to happen in the future.

The past is only useful to you in the extent to which it gives you insights into the future, and sometimes the past doesn’t give you any insights into the future. And in other cases, like the stable business that you postulated, it probably does give you a pretty good guideline as to what’s going to happen in the future, and you don’t need a huge margin of safety. You should have something that — you always should feel you’re getting a little more than what it’s worth, and there are times when we’ve been able to buy wonderful businesses at a quarter of what they’re worth, but we haven’t seen those — well, we saw it in Korea here recently — but you don’t see those sort of things very often. And does that mean you should sit around and hope they come back for 10 or — you know, wait 10 or 15 years? That’s not the way we do it. If we can buy good businesses at a reasonable valuation, we’re going to keep doing it. Charlie?

**查理·芒格:**是的。你那个——安全边际的概念归结为获得比你付出的更多的价值。这个价值可以以许多不同的形式存在。如果你在一个赔率均等的事情上得到四比一的赔付,那也是一个价值 proposition。这是高中代数。不知道如何使用高中代数的人应该去做点别的事。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. You’re — that margin of safety concept boils down to getting more value than you’re paying. And that value can exist in a lot of different forms. If you’re paid four-to-one on something that’s an even money proposition, why, that’s a value proposition, too. It’s high school algebra. And people who don’t know how to use high school algebra should take up some other activity.

16. 医疗保健对伯克希尔来说太难了

**沃伦·巴菲特:**第12个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 12.

参会者:——早上好。早上好。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: — morning. Good morning.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**早上好。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Morning.

**参会者:**我的名字是迈克·克莱因,我是来自加利福尼亚州萨利纳斯的普外科医生。鉴于您在保险承保方面的资源和经验,您是否有任何想法进入或帮助解决我们的医疗保健乱局?现在是用伯克希尔的清晰思路来制定新方案的正确时机。让我们承认,赌注巨大,对我们的经济和作为国家的未来都有影响。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Mike Klein, and I’m a general surgeon from Salinas, California. Given your resources and experience in underwriting insurance, do you have any thoughts of entering into, or helping to solve, our health care mess? Time is right for a new approach with Berkshire’s clarity brought to the formula. Let’s acknowledge the stakes are huge with implication for our economy and our future as a country.

**查理·芒格:**让我来试试这个问题。这太难了。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Let me try that one. It’s too tough.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**我会——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I would —

**查理·芒格:**沃伦和我解决不了那个问题。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Warren and I can’t solve that.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**是的,我们解决不了那个问题。我们试图寻找简单的问题,因为那些是我们能找到答案的问题。你可以在投资中这样做。我们真的不尝试困难的事情。现在,有时生活会给你一个难题,在我们的情况下,通常不是在财务领域,但它会给你一个非常棘手、必须应对的问题。但我们不会到处去寻找棘手的问题。我会这样说:我们在健康保险方面做得非常非常少。你知道,如果我们试图通过私营部门寻找解决方案,我们会寻找一个分销成本非常非常低的方案。我的意思是,你不希望在支付的福利和收到的保费之间的摩擦成本中消耗掉大量的收入。

我不知道该怎么做,我也没有看到其他任何人非常擅长做这件事,你可以说,如果你为医疗保健付出了接近GDP 15%的成本,那么,应该有人能想出点办法,但我没听说过。也许我们会在即将到来的政治竞选中听到,但查理的观点目前也反映了我自己的观点。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we can’t solve that one. We try to look for easy problems because those are the ones we find we have the answers for. And you can do that in investments. We don’t really try tough things. Now, sometimes life hands you a problem, not in the financial area in our case, usually, but it will hand you a problem that is very tough and that you have to wrestle with. But we don’t go around looking for tough problems. I would say this: we do very, very little in health insurance. You know, if we were to have — if we were looking for a solution through the private sector, we would be looking for something with very, very low distribution costs. I mean, you do not want a lot of the revenue soaked up in frictional costs between the benefits paid and the premiums received.

I don’t know how to do that, and I haven’t seen anybody else that’s very good at doing it, and you can say if you’re paying close to 15 percent of GDP for health costs, you know, somebody ought to be able to figure out something, but I haven’t heard it. Maybe we’ll hear it in the upcoming political campaign but Charlie’s views reflect mine at the present.

17. 芒格谈是什么推动了伯克希尔“极端”的成功

**沃伦·巴菲特:**现在我们要去大舞厅了。这两个溢出厅都坐满了——或者差不多坐满了——大舞厅是第13个问题。请他们进来好吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Now we’re going to go to the grand ballroom. We have these two overflow rooms that are full — or more or less full — and the grand ballroom is number. 13. Would they come in, please?

**参会者:**我是来自康涅狄格州的菲尔·麦考尔。我想知道您能否评论一个我认为您不太喜欢谈论的话题,那就是内在价值,以及过去10到12年间,时而向我们提供投资情况,时而提供营业收入,并暗示这可能是一个好的指导方针的演变过程。我发现这非常有帮助。我不确定其他人在展望您谈到的未来20年时,是否也认为这两个部分对未来有指导作用。如果您有任何评论,我将不胜感激。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: This is Phil McCall (PH) from Connecticut. I wondered if you could comment on a subject I don’t think you like to talk about very much, which is intrinsic value, and the evolution over the past 10 or 12 years of going to — off and on — but giving us investments and then giving us the operating income and suggesting that might be a good guide to us. I find it extremely helpful. I’m not sure other people do when looking out the 20 years you’re talking about, looking ahead on both those two parts. Any comments you might have, I’d surely appreciate.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**是的。嗯,伯克希尔的内在价值,和其他任何企业一样,是基于从今天到世界末日这段时间内,企业预期能够带来的未来现金流,按适当的折现率折现。这相当模糊。另一种看问题的方法是,试着找出我们目前拥有的企业的价值,我们试图为你提供信息,使你能对此做出一个相当接近的估计。我们拥有大量有价证券。可以安全地说,它们的价值大致等于其账面价值。然后我们拥有一批运营企业,我们试图为你提供这些企业的数据,这些数据也是我们自己判断这些企业价值时使用的数据。现在,这告诉了你我们今天拥有什么,以及它大致值多少钱。但是,由于伯克希尔保留了其所有收益,评估这些收益随着时间的推移会被如何使用就变得非常重要。我的意思是,这不仅仅是现有企业值多少钱的问题。

这是对留存收益使用的效率或有效性的判断。如果你在1965年看伯克希尔的内在价值,我们有一个纺织企业,大概每股值12美元。但这并不是等式的全部,因为我们打算用产生的任何现金来尝试买入比我们现有更好的企业,而且我们很幸运能够在1967年买入保险公司并以此为基础发展。因此,决定当时伯克希尔实际现值是多少的,不仅是我们拥有的企业,还有留存收益将被使用的技能。今天的情况也是如此。今年、明年以及后年,我们将投入数十亿、数百亿美元。如果我们有效地运用这些资金,每一美元的价值将超过仅仅是现金或分配出去的一美元。如果我们效率低下,它的价值就会低于一美元。今天的企业,你知道,我们在年报中有这个数字——大约8万美元的有价证券。

如果我们的保险业务盈亏平衡,这8万美元对我们来说就是免费的,可以用来做其他事情。我们还有一批运营企业,我们在报告中展示了它们的收益,我们将努力增加这些收益,它们也将努力增加自己的收益。但如果查理和我现在各自在一张纸上写下我们心中伯克希尔的内在价值,我们的数字不会相同。它们会相当接近。我想,这样我就把话转给查理了。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, the intrinsic value of Berkshire, like any other businesses, is based on the future amount of cash that can be expected to be delivered by the business between now and judgment day, discounted back at the proper rate. Now, that’s pretty nebulous. Another way of looking at it is to try and figure out the value of the businesses we own presently, and we try to give you the information that will enable you to make a reasonably close estimate at that. We own lots of marketable securities. It’s probably safe to say that they’re worth more or less what they are carried for. And then we own a number of operating businesses, and we try to give you the figures on those businesses that are the figures that we use in making our own judgments about the value of those businesses. Now, that tells you what we have today and more or less what it’s worth. But since Berkshire retains all of its earnings, it becomes very important to evaluate what will be done with those earnings over time. I mean, it is not only a question what the present businesses are worth.

It’s a judgment on the efficiency or the effectiveness with which retained earnings will be used. If you had looked at the intrinsic value of Berkshire in 1965, we had a textile business that was probably worth about $12 a share. But that was not the only part of the equation, because we intended to use any cash generated to try and buy into better businesses than we had, and we were fortunate to be able to buy in the insurance business in 1967 and build on that. So it was not only a combination of the business we had, but the skill with which retained earnings would be used, that determined what the present value actually should have been at Berkshire going back that far. It’s the same situation today. We will put to work billions and billions of dollars this year and next year and the year after. If we put that to work effectively, each dollar has a greater present value than a dollar has simply in cash or distributed. If we do ineffectively, it has a value of something less. The businesses today, you know, we have whatever the figure is in the annual report — roughly $80,000 in marketable securities.

If our insurance business breaks even, that $80,000 is free to us, in terms of using it. And we have a group of operating businesses and we show their earnings in the report and we’re going to try to add to those and they’ll try to add to their earnings. But if Charlie and I were each right now to write down on a piece of paper what we think the intrinsic value of Berkshire is, our figures would not be the same. They’d be reasonably close. And I think with that, I’ll turn it over to Charlie.

**查理·芒格:**是的。伯克希尔难以判断的是,你未来能否期望得到任何与过去类似的情况。伯克希尔的投资结果已经变得非常极端。事实上,它已经变得如此极端,以至于很难想到世界历史上还有其他类似的先例。考虑到公司起步时的微小规模,其资产负债表是巨大的。那么,到底是什么让这种极端的记录持续了如此之久?我认为,那个10岁时就阅读所有能读的书的年轻人,变成了一台学习机器,他很早就获得了强大的能力,然后在持续学习的过程中获得了非常长的运行时间。如果沃伦没有一直在学习,我告诉你,我密切观察过这个过程,那么记录将会是现在的一个苍白影子。而且沃伦在过了传统退休年龄之后还在进步。换句话说,至少在这个领域,你老了也能进步。现在,大多数人甚至不尝试去创造那样的记录。

他们把权力从一个65岁的人传给一个59岁的人,然后一次又一次地重复。但在这个领域,你从实践中获得了巨大的优势。因此,沃伦身上偶然发生的事情极大地帮助了你们股东,因为你们拥有这个权力高度集中、且掌握权力的人是一个狂热学习者的长期过程。我们的系统应该被更多地效仿。(掌声)这种以一种固定的方式将权力从一个老家伙传给另一个老家伙的想法,不一定就是正确的系统。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. What’s hard to judge at Berkshire is the likelihood that you’ll have anything like the past to look forward to in the future. Berkshire has gotten very extreme, in terms of investment results. In fact, it’s gotten so extreme that it’s hard to think of another similar precedent in the history of the world. And the balance sheet is gross, considering the small beginnings of the place. Now, what on earth has caused this extreme record to go on for such a very long time? I would argue that the young man who was reading everything he could read when he was 10-years-old became a learning machine, and he got a lot of power early, and then he got a very long run when he kept learning. If Warren had not been learning all the while, I’m telling you having watched the process closely, the record would be a pale shadow of what it is. And Warren has improved since he passed the retirement age of man. In other words, in this field, at least, you can improve when you’re old. Now, most people don’t even try and create that kind of a record.

They pass power from one 65-year-old to one 59-year-old and then do it over and over again. But you get an enormous advantage from practice in this field. And so what happened accidentally in the case of Warren has helped you shareholders greatly because you had this long run with power extremely concentrated, and with the man holding the power being a ferocious learner. Our system ought to be more copied than it is. (Applause) This idea of passing the power from one old codger to another, in a settled way, is not necessarily the right system at all.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**我们现在拥有一个非常强大的理性文化,一个以所有者为导向的文化,这种文化将在我离开后长期存在。而且我们在运营方面有一些人才,能够随着时间的推移做很多了不起的事情。在资本配置方面,我们需要持续做明智的事情。我们不会有机会做非常出色的事情,因为以我们谈论的资金规模,你不可能做非常出色的事情。也许千载难逢,你知道,你会有机会。但我们需要一个人,他基本上从不做任何愚蠢的事情,偶尔做一些相当好的事情。这是可以做到的。而且我们——我们已经在这条路上了。作为投资官或资本配置者加入这个组织,你是在一辆正确的车上。它有正确的标准。它会拒绝那些真正不理性的想法。我参加过很多董事会。查理也参加过很多董事会。

你会惊讶于有多少事情是出于“动物精神”而非理性而发生的。我们也有动物精神,但我们把它们用在了其他领域。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We have a very strong culture now of rationality, of being owner-oriented, that will go on long after I’m not around. And we have a talent on the operating side in place to do a lot of wonderful things over time. We will need, in capital allocation, to keep doing intelligent things. We won’t get to do brilliant things because you don’t get to do brilliant things with the kind of sums we’re talking about. Maybe once in a blue moon or something, you know, you’ll get a chance. But we will need somebody that never does — basically doesn’t do any dumb things, and occasionally does something that’s reasonably good. That can be done. And we have — we’re on that road already. It does not — fitting into this organization as an investment officer or a capital allocator, you’re getting in the right vehicle. It has the right standards. It will reject ideas that really are irrational. I’ve been on a lot of boards. Charlie’s been on a lot of boards.

You would be amazed at the number of things that are responding to “animal spirits” rather than to rationality that take place. And we have our animal spirits but we devote them to other areas.

18. “有缺陷的”衍生品审计将引发问题

**沃伦·巴菲特:**让我们继续第14个问题。这是在——在青年舞厅。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s go on to number 14. That’s in — that’s in the junior ballroom.

**参会者:**是的。你好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我是来自纽约的股东惠特尼·蒂尔森。多年来,你们两位一直在警告衍生品的危险,曾一度称其为“金融大规模杀伤性武器”。然而,每年都有数十万亿美元的衍生品被买卖。它似乎越来越庞大,而且几乎肯定会计处理不当。所以我想知道您能否评论一下,具体来说,您认为这种情况还能持续多久?您是否看到有什么迫在眉睫的事情可能破坏这个不断膨胀的泡沫?什么可能触发它?应该由谁来做些什么来试图减轻这个迫在眉睫的危险?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes. Hi, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. This is Whitney Tilson, a shareholder from New York. For many years both of you have been warning about the dangers of derivatives, at one point calling them “financial weapons of mass destruction.” Yet every year, tens of trillions of dollars of derivatives are bought and sold. It just seems to be getting bigger and bigger and almost certainly improperly accounted for. And so I was wondering if you could comment, and, specifically, if you have any thoughts on how much longer this might go on. Do you see anything imminent that could derail this ever inflating bubble? What might trigger it? And who should be doing what to try and mitigate this looming danger?

**沃伦·巴菲特:**嗯,我们自己也试图通过谈论这件事来做一点缓解,但是——你是对的,它——而且问题不在于衍生品本身。我的意思是,衍生品工具本身并没有什么邪恶的。正如我提到的,我们在伯克希尔有60多份这样的合约,星期一我会和董事们一起——我会过一遍这60多份合约,相信我,我们会从这些特定的工具中赚钱。但是它们——它们以不断扩大的方式被使用,使用方式越来越有想象力,本质上给系统引入了越来越多的杠杆。而且这是一种看不见的——或者说很大程度上看不见的——杠杆。如果你回顾20世纪20年代,在股市崩盘后,美国政府举行了听证会。他们认定杠杆——当时他们称之为保证金——可能促使了崩盘本身的发生,并肯定加剧了崩盘的程度。

这就像往火上浇油——当人们的持仓被触发时,你知道,当股票下跌10%时,人们不得不卖出,再跌10%,更多人不得不卖出,依此类推。杠杆被认为很危险,美国政府授权美联储监管保证金要求,监管杠杆,这被非常认真地对待。几十年来,它一直是真正关注的重点。我的意思是,如果你去银行试图借钱买股票,他们会让你签署某些文件,证明你没有违反保证金要求,并且他们对此进行监管。当美联储提高或降低保证金要求时,这被非常严肃地对待。这是他们如何看待投机水平的一个信号。那么,衍生品和指数期货等等东西的引入,已经完全使任何对保证金要求的监管变成了一个笑话。它们仍然存在,但是,你知道,这是一个时代的错误。所以我相信——我想查理可能同意我——我们可能不知道危险究竟从哪里开始,以及在什么程度上它变成了超等危险等等。

我们当然不知道什么会结束它,确切地说。我们不知道它何时会结束,确切地说。但我们可能——至少我相信——它会继续下去并增加到这样一个程度,以至于在某个时候,由于它,市场上会发生一些非常不愉快的事情。你在1987年10月19日看到了一个在被迫抛售下可能发生的事情的例子,当时有所谓的投资组合保险。现在,投资组合保险——你应该回去读一读那之前几年的文献。我的意思是,这出自学术界,曾被视为金融理论等的伟大进步。它是一个笑话。它是一堆止损单,你知道,可以追溯到150年前或更早,只不过它们是由机构自动和大规模执行的,而且它们是商品。人们付很多钱给别人,让别人教他们如何下止损单。当然,发生的事情是,如果有一大堆由非常大的机构执行的止损单,你就是在火上浇油。

当10月19日来临时,美国企业的价值缩水了22%,这基本上是由一个末日机器造成的。每一次触及某个水平时,一只无形的手就在卖出。而三周前,你知道,人们还在赞美它的美妙之处。嗯,这根本无法相比——这是一个正式的安排,让这些动态对冲或投资组合保险——卖出东西。但是,当你拥有以数十亿、数万亿美元总量运作、运用杠杆、并且会对相同刺激作出反应的基金经理时,你也会存在同样的情况。他们拥有我们称之为“拥挤交易”的东西,但他们自己不知道。这不是一个正式的拥挤交易。只是他们都准备好在某个特定信号或某个特定活动发生时卖出。当这种情况发生时,再加上衍生品允许的极端杠杆,总有一天你会得到一个非常、非常混乱的局面。我不知道是什么时候。

我不知道外生因素是什么——我不知道射杀某位大公会引发第一次世界大战,我也不知道什么会导致这种事情,但它会发生。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ve tried to do a little to mitigate it ourselves by talking about it, but the — you’re right, the — and it isn’t the derivative itself. I mean, there’s nothing evil about a derivative instrument. As I mentioned, we have 60-some of them at Berkshire, and on Monday I’ll go over with the directors — I’ll go over all 60-some and, believe me, we’ll make money out of those particular instruments. But they — usage of them on an expanding basis, more and more imaginative ways of using them, introduces, essentially, more and more leverage into the system. And it’s an invisible — or largely invisible — sort of leverage. If you go back to the 1920s, after the crash, the United States government held hearings. They decided that leverage — margin, in those days, as they called it — leverage contributed to, perhaps, the crash itself and certainly to the extent of the crash.

And it was like pouring gasoline on a fire was — when people’s holdings got tripped, you know, when stocks went down 10 percent people had to sell, another 10 percent, more people had to sell and so on. Leverage was regarded as dangerous and the United States government empowered the Federal Reserve to regulate margin requirements, regulate leverage, and that was taken very seriously. And for decades it was a source of real attention. I mean, if you went to a bank and tried to borrow money on a stock, they made you sign certain papers as to — that you weren’t in violation of the margin requirements, and they policed it. And it was taken quite seriously when the Fed increased or decreased margin requirements. It was a signal of how they felt about the level of speculation. Well, the introduction of derivatives and index futures, all that sort of thing, has just totally made any regulation of margin requirements a joke. They still exist and, you know, it’s an anachronism. So I believe — I think Charlie probably agrees with me — that we may not know where, exactly, the danger begins and where — and at what point it becomes a superdanger and so on.

We certainly don’t know what will end it, precisely. We don’t know when it will end, precisely. But we probably — at least I believe — that it will go on and increase to the point where at some point there will be some very unpleasant things happen in markets because of it. You saw one example of what can happen under forced sales back in October 19, 1987, when you had so-called portfolio insurance. Now, portfolio insurance — and you ought to go back and read the literature for the couple years preceding that. I mean, this was something that came out of academia and it was regarded as a great advance in financial theories and everything. It was a joke. It was a bunch of stop-loss orders which, you know, go back 150 years or something, except that they were done automatically and in large scale by institutions and they were merchandise. People paid a lot of money to people to teach them how to put in a stop-loss order. And what happened, of course, was that if you have a whole series of stop-loss orders by very big institutions, you are pouring gasoline on fire.

And when October 19th came along, you had a 22 percent shrink in the value of American business, caused, essentially, by a doomsday machine. A dead hand was selling as each level got hit. And three weeks earlier, you know, people were proclaiming the beauty of this. Well, that is nothing compared — it was a formal arrangement to have these — this dynamic hedging or portfolio insurance — sell things. But you have the same thing existing when you have fund operators operating with billions in aggregate, trillions of dollars, leveraged, who will respond to the same stimulus. They have what we would call a “crowded trade,” but they don’t know it. It’s not a formal crowded trade. It’s just that they’re all ready to sell if a certain given signal or a certain given activity occurs. And when you get that, coupled with extreme leverage which derivatives allow, you will someday get a very, very chaotic situation. I have no idea when.

I have no idea what the exogenous factor — I didn’t know that shooting some archduke, you know, would start World War I, and I have no idea what will cause this kind of a thing, but it will happen. Charlie?

**查理·芒格:**是的。当然,会计的有缺陷极大地加剧了风险。如果你因为报告根本不存在的利润而获得巨额奖金,你会继续做任何导致这些虚假利润持续出现在账面上的事情。让这件事变得如此困难的是,大多数会计行业甚至没有意识到自己的行为有多么愚蠢。一位负责会计标准的人对我说,“嗯,这更好,这种衍生品会计,因为它是按市值计价,难道我们不想要最新的信息吗?”我说,“是的。但如果你是按模型计价,你创建模型,你的会计师信任你的模型,你只要不断扩大头寸,想报告多少利润都可以,只要头寸越来越大。根据人类的本性,这会导致可怕的后果和可怕的行为。”这个人对我说,“嗯,你就是不懂会计。”(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. And, of course, the accounting being deficient enormously contributes to the risks. If you get paid enormous bonuses based on reporting profits that don’t exist, you’re going to keep doing whatever causes those phony profits to keep appearing on the books. And what makes that so difficult is that most of the accounting profession doesn’t even recognize how stupidly it is behaving. And one of the people in charge of accounting standards said to me, “Well, this is better, this derivative accounting, because it’s mark-to-market, and don’t we want current information?” And I said, “Yes. But if you mark-to-model, and you create the models, and your accountants trust your models, and you can just report whatever profit you want as long as you keep expanding the positions bigger and bigger and bigger, the way human nature is, that will cause terrible results and terrible behavior.” And this person said to me, “Well, you just don’t understand accounting.” (Laughter.)

**沃伦·巴菲特:**如果四年前,或者不管什么时候,当我们开始清算通用再保险的投资组合时,我们为各种事情设立了数亿美元的储备。而我们的审计师——我强调,其他任何四大审计事务所绝对会证明我们的东西是按市值计价的。你知道,我真希望那天我把投资组合卖给了审计师。(笑声)那样我会多赚4亿美元。所以这是一个真正的问题。现在有一件事我觉得非常有趣。如果我欠你干洗费之类的15美元,而他们在审计那家干洗店,他们会查证我,发现我欠你15美元,一切正常。如果他们在审计我,他们会发现我欠干洗店15美元。你知道,在这个国家基本上只有四大审计事务所。

那么——在很多情况下,如果他们在审计我这边的衍生品交易,你知道,我对它的估值,同一家事务所可能经常也在为合约另一方的估值进行——或者说证明其价值。我向你保证,如果你把双方的估值加起来,它们不会等于零。我们有60多份合约,我敢打赌,另一方的人对它们的估值与我们自己的估值不同,而且这不会对另一方的交易员不利。我的报酬不取决于我们的估值如何,所以我没有任何理由想要操纵这个系统。但另一边确实有人有理由操纵这个系统。所以,如果我把某份合约估值为伯克希尔盈利100万美元,那么这份合约在另一方,它只是一张纸,应该被其他人估值为负100万美元。

但是我认为你可能有一些案例——我指的不是我们的审计师,我指的是所有四家事务所——但他们有很多案例,他们在为同一张纸的价值提供证明,而这些价值在双方是截然不同的。查理,你有什么想法吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: If four years ago, or whenever it was, when we started to liquidate Gen Re’s portfolio, we had reserves set up for in the hundreds and millions and all sorts of things. And our auditor — and I emphasize any other of the Big Four auditors absolutely would have attested to the fact that our stuff was mark-to-market. You know, I just wish I’d sold the portfolio to the auditors that day. (Laughs) I’d be 400 million better off. So it’s a real problem. Now there’s one thing that’s really quite interesting to me. If I owe you, on my dry cleaning bill or something, $15, and they’re auditing the dry cleaners, they check with me and they find out that I owe you $15 and it’s all fine. If they’re auditing me, they find out I owe the dry cleaner 15 bucks. There are only four big auditing firms, you know, basically in this country.

And I will — so in many cases, if they’re auditing my side of the derivative transaction, you know, what I’m valuing it at, the same firm may often be valuing — or attesting to the value of the mark by the person on the other side of the contract. I will guarantee you that if you add up the marks on both sides, they don’t equate out to zero. We have 60-some contracts, and I will bet that people are valuing them differently on the other side than we value themselves, and it won’t be to the disadvantage of the trader on the other side. I don’t get paid based on how ours are valued, so I have no reason to want to game the system. But there are people out on the other side that do have reasons to game the system. So if I’m valuing some contract at plus a million dollars for Berkshire, that contract on the other side, it’s just one piece of paper, should be valued at a minus 1 million by somebody else.

But I think you probably have cases — and this is — I’m not talking about our auditors, I’m talking about all four of the firms — but they have many cases where they are attesting to values that — of the exact same piece of paper — where the numbers are widely different on both sides. Do you have any thoughts on that, Charlie?

**查理·芒格:**嗯,我——正如上帝制造小青苹果一样确定,这迟早会引发大麻烦。只要它继续扩张和膨胀,而且震动不大,它可以一直持续下去。但最终会有一个大的结局。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I — as sure as God made little green apples, this is going to cause a lot of trouble in due course. As long as it keeps expanding and ballooning and so on and the convulsions are minor, it can just go on and on. But eventually there will be a big denouement.

19. 短期投资和高等数学的危险

**沃伦·巴菲特:**让我们回到第一个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s go back to number one.

**参会者:**你好。我是来自香港的库士坦利。我的问题是关于短期投资心态的泛滥。随着越来越多的资金被置于绝对回报任务之下,这些基金经理,正如您刚才所说,会做出相同的反应,并试图交易这些问题。那么,随着各种产品的信用利差——我应该说风险溢价——全面下降,以及跨市场的相关性上升,我们能否解读为这对经济或市场是健康还是不健康的?我们能否有理由地说,投资组合保险的动态在今天已经存在?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. I’m Stanley Ku from Hong Kong. My question is about a proliferation of short-term mindset to investing. As more and more money is being placed under absolute return mandate, these managers, as you just said, responded the same response, and tried to trade issues. So with credit spread on — I should say, risk premium — on various products declining across the board and correlation across markets increasing, can we read into it and say what is healthy or not healthy for the economy or the markets? And can we arguably say the portfolio insurance dynamics is already in place today?

**沃伦·巴菲特:**嗯,我认为你说到了点子上。而且,你知道,我们确实认为这不健康。显然,如果你拿——没有精确的方法来衡量这一点,但我相当确定我是对的——如果你拿比如说债券或股票,由那些可能明天早上就会根据某个刺激因素(无论是美联储的举动还是金融市场的某种意外)改变主意的人持有的百分比,这个百分比要高得多。在全世界范围内,有一群管理着巨额资金的“电子羊群”,他们认为应该基本上每天、每小时或每分钟对其投资组合中的所有事情做出决定。这增加了纽约证券交易所的换手率——我不知道确切数字——但我认为40年前大约是15%或20%的范围,而现在我相信已经增加到了100%以上。所以——当然在债券市场,债券的换手率也急剧增加。

过去人们买债券是为了持有它们,现在人们买债券是为了交易它们。这本身并没什么邪恶,但这意味着参与者正在玩一个不同的游戏,而这个不同的游戏可能会产生与买入并持有环境不同的后果。而且我确实认为这意味着,如果你试图在每日的基础上击败对方,你就会非常仔细地观察新闻事件,或者非常仔细地观察对方。如果你认为他即将按下那个键,你知道,你会试图更快地按下键,如果你玩的是那个游戏,并且你每周都要根据结果被评估。所以我认为你描述的条件会导致我们在某个时刻一直预期的结果。不过,这对市场来说并不新鲜。我的意思是,市场会随着时间的推移做出疯狂的事情。

每次——当查理和我在所罗门的时候,他们总是跟我们谈论五西格玛事件或六西格玛事件,如果你是在讨论抛硬币,那没问题,但当涉及到人类行为时,这没有任何意义。人们会做——而且聪明人会做——非常聪明、受过教育的人会做——完全非理性的事情,而且他们会集体这样做。你在1998年看到了。你在2002年看到了。你会再次看到。而且你会看到——当人们试图日复一日地战胜货币、债券、股票市场时,这更可能发生。我认为这是一个傻瓜的游戏。但是——你知道,这可能是吸引资金所需要的。当我设立我的合伙公司时,我告诉合伙人,你们一年只会收到我的一封信。

我甚至想过——1962年我把合伙公司组合起来,1962年5月市场变得很糟糕——我确实想过给所有合伙人发一封信,然后把它寄到巴西再寄回来,只是为了测试他们一下,看看他们对事情的看法。但是,你知道,我有几个心脏不好的。我决定这不值得。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think you put your finger on it. And, you know, we do think it’s unhealthy. Obviously, if you take — and no way of precisely measuring this, but I’m quite certain I’m right — if you take the degree to which, say, either bonds or stocks, the percentage of them that are held by people who could change their minds tomorrow morning based on a given stimulus, whether it be something the Fed does or whether it be some kind of an accident in financial markets, the percentage is far higher. There is an electronic herd of people around the world managing huge amounts of money who think that a decision on everything in their portfolio should be made, basically, daily or hourly or by the minute. And that has increased turnover on the New York Stock Exchange — and I don’t know the exact figures — but I think it was down around the 15 or 20 percent range 40 years ago and it’s increased it to a hundred percent, I believe, plus, now. So — and certainly in the bond market, the turnover of bonds has increased dramatically.

People used to buy bonds to own them and they’d buy bonds to trade them. And there’s nothing evil about that, but it just means that the participants are playing a different game, and that different game can have different consequences than in a buy-and-hold environment. And I do think it means that if you’re trying to beat the other fellow on a day-to-day basis, you’re watching news events very carefully or watching the other fellow very carefully. If you think he’s about to hit that key, you know, you’re going to try to hit the key faster, if that’s the game you’re playing and if you’re getting measured on results weekly. So I think that you describe the conditions that will lead to a result that we’ve been talking about expecting at some point. It’s not new to markets, though. I mean, markets will do crazy things over time.

Every time — when Charlie and I were at Salomon, they’d always talk to us about five sigma events or six sigma events, and that’s fine if you’re talking about flipping coins, but it doesn’t mean anything when you get human behavior involved. And people do things that — and intelligent people do things — very intelligent, educated people do things — that are totally irrational, and they do them en masse. And you saw it in 1998. You saw it in 2002. And you’ll see it again. And you’ll see it — it’s more likely to happen when you have people trying to beat currency, bond, stock markets, day by day. It’s — I think it’s a fool’s game. But — you know, it may be what’s required to attract money. When I set up my partnership, I told the partners, you know, you’ll hear from me once a year.

And I even thought — in 1962 I put the partnerships together and in May of 1962 the market got terrible — and I actually thought of sending all my partners a letter, and then sending it down to Brazil to have it reshipped back up, just to sort of test them out, but — how they felt about things. But, you know, I had a few with bad hearts. I decided it wasn’t worthwhile. Charlie?

**查理·芒格:**是的。当人们谈论西格玛,谈论市场的灾难可能性时,他们都疯了。他们以为市场的不良结果可以用高斯分布来预测。他们决定这个结果的方式是,它让一切变得容易计算。它们不遵循高斯分布。你必须相信牙仙子才会相信它。而且灾难比[德国数学家卡尔·弗里德里希]高斯会预测的更大、更恼人。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. When people talk about sigmas, in terms of disaster potentialities in markets, they’re all crazy. They got the idea that bad results in markets would be predicted by Gaussian distributions. And the way they decided on that outcome was it made everything so easy to compute. They don’t follow Gaussian distributions. You have to believe in the Tooth Fairy to believe that. And the disasters are bigger and more irritating than [German mathematician Carl Friedrich] Gauss would have predicted.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**教起来也更容易。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: It was easier to teach as well.

**查理·芒格:**教起来也更容易。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: It’s easier to teach, too.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**是的。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

**查理·芒格:**我曾经问一位著名的医学院教授,为什么他还在做一种过时的操作,他说:“因为它教起来太棒了。”(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I once asked a distinguished medical school professor why he was still doing an obsolete procedure, and he said, “It’s so wonderful to teach.” (Laughter)

**沃伦·巴菲特:**在金融系里,这种情况比你想象的要多。学习高等数学,你知道,学习如何做只有你领域内的神职人员才能做的事情,然后发现它没有任何意义,这非常令人沮丧。而当你面对这种认识时,在你投入了多年时间获得博士学位之后,你知道,你可能还写了一本教材和一两篇论文,突然意识到那些东西毫无用处,甚至具有反作用,我不确定,你知道,有多少人能很好地处理。而且我认为他们通常只是继续教下去。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: There’s more of that in finance departments than you might think. It’s very discouraging to learn advanced mathematics and, you know, how to do things that none but the priesthood can do in your field, and then find out it doesn’t have any meaning, you know. And what you do when confronted with that knowledge, after you’ve invested these years to get your Ph.D., you know, and you’ve maybe written a textbook and a paper or two, having a revelation that that stuff has no utility at all, and really has counter-utility, I’m not sure, you know, too many people can handle it well. And I think they just generally keep on teaching.

20. 内在价值和投资的量化方法

**沃伦·巴菲特:**第2个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 2.

**参会者:**你好。我是来自德国慕尼黑的伯克哈特·惠蒂克。我希望更透明地了解您如何做出投资决策,特别是您如何确定内在价值。您提到理论上正确的方法是自由现金流折现,但同时也指出了该方法固有的困难。从其他书中,我看到您使用经营收益的倍数,或者(听不清)倍数。您的[前]儿媳玛丽在她的一本书中描述了另一种方法,您将复利经济学应用于股权价值。您能否给我们更多关于您使用哪种量化方法以及您尝试量化感兴趣的投资结果到未来多少年的透明度?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello. Burkhardt Whittick (PH) from Munich in Germany. I would like to get some more transparency on how you make investment decisions, particularly how you determine intrinsic value. You mentioned that the theoretically correct method is discounted cash flow, but at the same time you point out the inherent difficulties of the methodology. From other books, I see that you use multiples on operating earnings, or (inaudible) multiples. Your [former] daughter [in law] Mary, in one of her books, describes another methodology where you apply compounding economics to the value of the equity. Could you give us a bit more transparency which quantitative approach you use and how many years out you try to quantify the results of the investments you’re interested in?

**沃伦·巴菲特:**我理解这个问题,但我打算假装不理解,让查理先回答。(笑声)我真的这么想。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I understand the question, but I’m going to pretend I don’t and let Charlie answer first. (Laughs) I really do.

**查理·芒格:**是的。当你试图确定像内在价值和安全边际之类的东西时,没有一种简单的方法可以由例如计算机机械地应用,并让任何按按钮的人都变得富有。从定义上讲,这是一个你使用多种技巧和多种模型来玩的游戏,而且丰富的经验非常有帮助。我认为你不能很快成为一名伟大的投资者,就像你不能很快成为一名伟大的骨肿瘤病理学家一样。这需要一些经验,这就是为什么尽早开始是有帮助的。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. When you’re trying to determine something like intrinsic value and margin of safety and so on, there’s no one easy method that could be simply mechanically applied by, say, a computer and make anybody who could punch the buttons rich. By definition, this is going to be a game which you play with multiple techniques and multiple models, and a lot of experience is very helpful. I don’t think you can become a great investor very rapidly any more than you could become a great bone tumor pathologist very rapidly. It takes some experience and that’s why it’s helpful to get a very early start.

**沃伦·巴菲特:**但是如果你——我们假设我们都决定要买——或者考虑买——一个农场。我们往北开30英里,发现那里的一个农场每英亩可以产120蒲式耳玉米,每英亩可以产45蒲式耳大豆,我们知道化肥的成本,我们知道财产税的成本,我们知道需要付给农民多少工钱来做这个工作,我们用相当保守的假设,会得到我们每英亩能赚到的一个数字。我们假设当你完成这些计算后,结果是农场主自己不用干活就能每英亩赚到70美元。那么问题是,你愿意为这70美元付多少钱?你是否假设农业会逐年略有改善,所以你的产量会提高一点?你是否假设价格会随着时间的推移而走高?它们没怎么涨,尽管最近玉米和大豆价格不错。

但多年来农产品价格涨幅不大。那么你会对你的假设持保守态度。然后你可能会决定,对于每英亩70美元,你知道,如果你想要7%的回报,你会支付每英亩1000美元。你知道,如果农田卖900美元,你知道你会收到一个买入信号。如果卖1200美元,你会寻找其他东西。这就是我们在企业中所做的。我们试图弄清楚我们正在观察的那些“企业农场”将会产出什么。要做到这一点,我们必须了解它们的竞争地位。我们必须了解企业的动态。我们必须能够展望未来。正如我之前所说,有些企业你无法看得很远。但是投资的数学原理是由伊索在公元前600年提出的。他说:“一鸟在手胜过双鸟在林。”现在我们的问题是,我们什么时候才能得到那两只鸟?我们要等多久?

我们有多确定灌木丛里有两只鸟?会不会有更多?合适的折现率是多少?我们这样来衡量一个和另一个。我的意思是,我们看待一大批企业,它们会给我们多少只鸟,什么时候给我们,我们试图决定哪些——基本上,哪些灌木丛——我们想要买下它们的未来。这完全是关于评估未来——未来分配现金的能力,或者如果不分配,则以高利率再投资现金的能力。伯克希尔从未分配过任何现金,但它产生现金的能力却增长了,我们保留这些现金是因为我们认为通过保留它们,我们能创造超过1美元的现值。但是,正是这种分配现金的能力赋予了伯克希尔价值。我们年复一年地努力提高这种分配现金的能力,然后我们努力保留并投资这些现金,使得一美元的价值超过一美元。你可能对很少的企业有洞察力。

我的意思是,如果我们离开这里,走过一个麦当劳摊位,你知道,你决定是否要为那个麦当劳摊位支付100万美元,或130万美元,或90万美元,你会思考出现更多竞争的可能性有多大,麦当劳是否会改变对你的特许经营安排,人们是否会继续吃汉堡包,你知道,各种事情。实际上你会对自己说,这个麦当劳摊位会赚X——可能几年后是X加5%——因为随着时间的推移,价格会略微上涨。这就是投资的一切。但是你必须知道什么时候你清楚自己在做什么,你必须知道什么时候你超出了我所谓的你的能力圈,那时你根本没有一点主意。查理。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: But if you’re — let’s just say that we all decided we’re going to buy a — or think about — buying a farm. And we go up 30-miles north of here and we find out that a farm up there can produce 120 bushels of corn, and it can produce 45 bushels of soybean per acre, and we know what fertilizer costs, and we know what the property taxes cost, and we know what we’ll have to pay the farmer to actually do the work involved, and we’ll get some number that we can make per acre,

伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2007 年度股东大会

第三部分/共六部分

沃伦·巴菲特:我希望你死后没机会测试这一点,查理。(笑)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I hope you don’t get a chance to test that after death, Charlie. (Laughs)

查理·芒格:又不是说有大批人想从南加州搬到北达科他州。所以我们谈的是错位问题。对我来说,全球变暖一点对人类整体而言是否净变得更糟,这一点并不明确。但这种错位会给许多地方带来痛苦,尤其是那些很快就会发现自己被淹没的地区。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: It isn’t as though there’s a vast flood of people trying to move to North Dakota from southern California. And so you’re talking about dislocation. It’s not at all clear to me that, net, it would be worse for mankind in general to have the planet a little hotter. But the dislocations would cause agonies for a great many places, particularly those that would soon find themselves underwater.

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。我刚想问你。你对海平面上升15或20英尺有什么看法?(笑)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. I was going to ask you. How do you feel about the sea level being 15 or 20 feet higher? (Laughs)

查理·芒格:嗯,那很不幸,但是——(笑声)荷兰全国有25%的土地低于海平面,他们不也活得挺好?只要有足够的时间和资本,这些事情也能适应。我不认为这对人类来说是威胁整个人类种族的彻底灾难。你得是个抽大烟的新闻系学生才会——(掌声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, that’s very unfortunate, but — (Laughter) Holland lives with what, 25 percent of the nation below sea level? With enough time and enough capital, why, these things can be adjusted, too. I don’t think it’s an utter calamity for man that threatens the whole human race or anything like that. You know, you’d have to be a pot-smoking journalism student or something to — (Applause)

查理·芒格:——相信那个。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: — believe that.

沃伦·巴菲特:我们终于释放他了,各位。(笑声)好吧,我向你们保证,我们保险部门的负责人将继续对全球变暖保持高度警惕。但我们不知道——我们确实知道2004年和2005年,飓风的频率,尤其是强度,从过去一个世纪的数据来看是完全无法预期的。我们算是侥幸——尽管经历了卡特里娜飓风——但由于几个五级飓风没有登陆美国本土,我们躲过了可能更糟的情况。所以我不认为卡特里娜飓风接近最坏情况。而且,就像我说的,我不知道——我不知道海水温度比30年前高了半华氏度还是一华氏度,但我不知道——我也不知道影响飓风的所有因素。我的意思是,我显然知道水温会提供能量之类的。但可能有50个变量。

我唯一知道的是,总体而言,它们可能对我们越来越不利,我们应该非常谨慎。而且我知道,如果2007年以几年前同样的费率承保巨灾保险,那将是疯狂的。既然我们身处巨灾保险行业,这是我思考的问题,而且实际签发保单的人也在思考这个问题。所以这对我们来说是一个因素。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: — believe that.

WARREN BUFFETT: We’re finally unleashing him, folks. (Laughter) Well, we’ll continue to have people in charge of insurance who are plenty worried about global warming, I promise you. But it — we don’t know — we do know that 2004 and 2005, there was a frequency, and more particularly, there was an intensity of hurricanes that would not be expected at all by looking at the previous century. And we were spared — even though we had Katrina — we were spared what could have been a far worse case by a couple of Category Fives that didn’t hit the mainland. So I do not regard Katrina as being anywhere near a worst-case scenario. And, like I say, I don’t know whether — how much of — I don’t know whether the water is a half a degree or 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than 30 years ago, but I don’t know — and I don’t know all the factors that go into hurricanes. I mean, I know that, obviously, the water temperature, you know, contributes to energy and all that sort. But there could be 50 variables.

All I know is, on balance, I think they’re probably getting more negative for us and I know we ought to be very careful about it. And I know that it would be crazy to write insurance in 2007 at the same rates that it was being written a few years ago, in relation to catastrophes. And since we’re in the catastrophe business, that is something I think about, and the people that actually write the policies think about it as well. So it’s a factor with us.

23. 银行问题不意味着中国会崩溃

沃伦·巴菲特:第五个问题。

原文

23. Bank problems don’t mean China will collapse

WARREN BUFFETT: Five.

听众:您好。我是来自堪萨斯城的约翰·戈洛布。我有一个关于中国经济的问题。一些观察人士认为,中国的银行体系看起来有点像1990年代的日本。您是否担心中国可能会像90年代的日本那样经历类似的动荡,还是说中国——凭借不同的制度——可能更能抵御经济动荡?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. I’m John Golob from Kansas City. I have a question about the Chinese economy. Some observers have suggested that the Chinese banking system looks a little like Japan back in the 1990s. Are you concerned that China could experience similar disruptions as Japan in ‘90 or is China possibly — with different institutions — possibly more resistant to economic disruptions?

沃伦·巴菲特:我只能说我不知道答案。我的意思是,这是一个非常有趣的问题。这是一个非常重要的问题。但是,你知道,日本出事前我也未必了解会发生什么,而我对中国银行的了解几乎为零。有人给过我们机会购买各种中国银行的股份,但同样,因为我对它们一无所知,所以我放弃了。这不是说有什么不好。只是意味着,坐在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,不知道某笔贷款和垫款项目具体是什么——不知道它的构成,也不知道这家机构的实际运营情况——我无法判断它值X、半X、2X还是四分之一X,我真的不知道。我真的不知道——我对你的问题完全没概念,但也许查理知道。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I would have to say I don’t know the answer to that. I mean, it’s a very interesting question. It’s a very important question. But, you know, I didn’t necessarily understand what was going to happen in Japan before it happened, and my insight into Chinese banks is about zero. We’ve been offered chances to buy into various Chinese banks and, again, because I don’t know anything about them, I pass. It’s no judgment that there’s anything bad. It just means that sitting in Omaha, Nebraska, not knowing what some item of loans and advances — what composes it or anything about the real operation of the place — that I can make a decision whether it’s worth X, half of X, 2X, a quarter of X, I just don’t know. And I really don’t know — I just have no notion as to the answer to your question, but maybe Charlie does.

查理·芒格:嗯,如果你静下心来想一想,过去15年中国所取得的所有显著经济进步,都伴随着其国有银行的运作方式——如果你拿它们与正常的银行标准相比,你会不寒而栗。所以你看到的一切进步,都是在——这些银行几乎是在发放救济金而非进行正常银行业务——的情况下发生的。所以我非常谨慎,不敢预测这肯定会引发日本——或者说中国——的巨大经济崩溃。他们已经这样做了很长时间,而且现在可能正在好转。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, if you stop to think about it, all of the remarkable economic progress that we’ve seen in China in the last 15 years has been accompanied by practices in their government banks that would make you shutter if you compared them to normal banking standards. So everything you see in terms of progress has occurred despite — the banks were almost doling out money for aid as distinguished from doing normal banking. So I’d be very leery of predicting that that’s sure to cause a huge economic collapse in Japan — in China. They’ve been doing it for a long time, and they may actually be getting better now.

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。我们美国也有过不少银行问题。我的意思是,储贷危机和各种事情过去也没多久。而强大的经济能够挺过来。所以,你知道,如果你事先看到商业银行陷入的外国贷款问题和储贷机构陷入的房地产贷款问题,你可能会说,这会对美国经济造成可怕的后果,确实也造成了很多错位等等。但如果你看看美国经济的常规表现,它经历了各种金融危机,而人均实际产出却以相当高的速度增长,十年复十年。我不知道中国会发生什么,但我认为已经取得的进步相当惊人。而且我认为他们将继续取得进步,不过我不知道银行体系会发生什么。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We’ve had our share of banking troubles in this country. I mean, it wasn’t that long ago in terms of the savings and loan crisis and all kinds of things. And strong economies come through those things. So, you know, if ahead of time you’d seen all the problems with foreign loans that the commercial banks got into and all the problems with real estate loans that the savings and loans got into, you could have said, you know, it’s going to be terrible for the American economy, and it did produce a lot of dislocations and all of that. But if you look at the regular American economy, it’s come through all kinds of financial crises with the real output per capita rising at a very substantial rate just decade after decade. I don’t know what will happen in China, but I think it’s pretty amazing in terms of the gains that have been made. And I think they’ll be — I think they’ll continue to be made, and I don’t know what will happen with the banking system, though.

24. 简单的决定:股票优于债券

沃伦·巴菲特:第六个问题。

原文

24. Easy decision: stocks over bonds

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 6.

听众:早上好,沃伦和查理。我是来自印第安纳州埃尔克哈特的弗兰克·马丁。我是股东。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning, Warren and Charlie. My name is Frank Martin from Elkhart, Indiana. I’m a shareholder.

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊,弗兰克,你也写了一本好书。(笑)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. You’ve written a good book too, Frank. (Laughs)

听众:谢谢,沃伦。我会尽量简洁地提出这个问题。如你所知,我的长项不是书面文字的简洁。最近,我连续阅读了你和查理自1999年以来所写的一切,或者关于你们的一切,包括年报中的招聘广告——那不是在找泰德·威廉姆斯,而是找终极防守球员——以及上周一《华尔街日报》上你们措辞强硬的引述。在思考这段年表时,我感觉到你们对有价证券投资环境的看法发生了一种渐进但明确无误的巨变。你们对管理风险的专注度在加强,而其他那些最大的市场参与者——对冲基金、私募股权、共同基金——却明显缺乏这种专注。他们对未来可能疲弱的回报率以及为实现这些回报而承担的不道德风险可耻地保持沉默,同时却为这种低附加值的服务收取天价费用。当我放任我的直觉时,1999年后的沃伦·巴菲特让我想起了1969年后的沃伦·巴菲特。

那时,伯克希尔还只是现在规模的一个零头,你说过玩一个你不理解的游戏很困难,股市总体上缺乏安全边际。你并没有预测后来发生的73-74年的熊市,但你肯定直觉地意识到了[前美联储主席艾伦]格林斯潘多年后一再警告的事情:长期低股票风险溢价之后不可避免的算账之日。如果你愿意,想象一下你一夜之间被抛入一个新角色,从头开始管理一个100亿美元养老基金的投资委员会。今天,你的决定会反映你在1969年后主导你行为的那种同样的风险规避心态吗?你是否会预期,经历了这一切之后,可能会出现像73-74年那样诱人的机会?请解释一下,我希望查理也能谈谈这个话题。谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thanks, Warren. I’ll do my best to be succinct with this question. As you know, my long suit is not brevity in the written word. Recently, I sequentially read everything that you and Charlie have written, or that has been written about you, since 1999, including your help wanted ad in the annual report, which sought not a Ted Williams, but the consummate defensive player in your forcefully worded quotations in last Monday’s Wall Street journal. When contemplating the chronology, I sensed a gradual but unmistakable sea change in your perspective on the investment environment for marketable securities. The intensification of your preoccupation with managing risk is conspicuous by its absence among the other biggest players at the margin — hedge funds, private equity, mutual funds — who are shamefully mute both about what are likely to be anemic prospective returns and the unconscionable risks assumed to achieve them, all the while charging a king’s ransom for such low value-added services. When I give free rein to my intuition, the post-1999 Warren Buffett reminds me of the Warren Buffett of post-1969.

Back then, when Berkshire was a small fraction of its current size, you spoke of the difficulty in playing a game you did not understand, that there was little margin of safety in the equity markets in general. You weren’t forecasting what in its own time became the bear market of ‘73-‘74, but you were surely intuitively aware of what [former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan] Greenspan years later has repeatedly warned: the inevitable day of reckoning that follows long periods of low equity risk premium. Imagine yourself, if you are willing, cast overnight into a new role with a clean slate as head of the investment committee of a $10 billion pension fund. Today, would your decisions reflect the same risk-averse mindset that dominated your behavior in the post-1969 period? And might you anticipate that following all of this might appear opportunities that were as mouthwatering as appeared in ‘73-‘74? Please explain, and I hope Charlie will weigh in on the subject as well. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,弗兰克,当我关闭合伙公司时,如果那时我管理一个捐赠基金,预期回报——实际上,我在给合伙人的一封信中写过,我很乐意寄给你一份副本——我当时的看法是,股票和市政债券未来十年的预期回报大致相当,结果也大致如此。我要说的是,我不认为现在是同样的情形。如果我管理一个非常大的捐赠基金,首先,它要么是100%的股票,要么是100%的长期债券,要么是100%的短期债券。我的意思是,我不相信分层配置,说什么我要有60%的这个和30%的那个。如果我认为60%的那个更有道理,我为什么还要那30%呢?

所以——如果你告诉我,我必须为一个基金做20年的投资,我可以在买入指数(标普500)和20年期债券之间选择,你知道,我会买股票。你知道,这并不意味着它们不会大幅下跌。但如果你——我宁愿持有股票投资——但我不愿意付一大笔钱给别人,让他大幅降低我的股票回报。但仅仅是购买一只20年期的指数基金,或者购买20年期债券,对我来说,这不是一个需要纠结的决定。我会买股票。我更愿意买得更便宜,你知道,但我也更愿意买收益率更高的债券。但就今天给我的选择而言,我会选择股票。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah Frank, when I closed up to the partnership, if I’d had an endowment fund to run then, the prospective return — and actually, I wrote this in a letter to my partners that I’d be glad to send you a copy of — the prospective return — and I was looking at them as individuals on an after-tax basis — was about the same, I felt, from equities and from municipal bonds over the next decade, and it turned out to be more or less the case. I would say that I do not regard that as being the same situation now. If I were managing a very large endowment fund, for one thing it would either be a hundred percent in stocks or a hundred percent in long bonds or a hundred percent in short-term bonds. I mean, I don’t believe in layering things and saying I’m going to have 60 percent of this and 30 percent of that. Why do I have the 30 percent if I think the 60 percent makes more sense?

So — and if you told me I had to invest a fund for 20 years and I had a choice between buying the index, the 500, or a 20-year bond, you know, I would buy stocks. You know, that doesn’t mean they won’t go down a lot. But if you — I would rather a have an equity investment — I wouldn’t rather have an equity investment where I paid a ton of money to somebody else that took my stock return down dramatically. But simply buying an index fund for 20 years of equities or buying a 20-year bond, I would — it would not be a close decision with me. I would buy the equities. I’d rather buy them cheaper, you know, but I’d rather buy the bond with a bigger yield, too. But in terms of what’s offered to me today, that’s the way I would come down. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。我想这不是预期的答案,但这就是答案。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I don’t think that was the answer that was expected, but that’s the answer. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:这与我们对股票的看法无关——我们根本不考虑——但关于股票可能在哪里或债券可能在哪里,我们完全不知道标普500指数三年后会在哪里,或者长期债券三年后会在哪里,但我们知道在20年的时间里我们更愿意拥有哪一种。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: It doesn’t have a thing to do with what we think stocks — we don’t think at all — but where stocks could be or bonds could be. We don’t have the faintest idea where the S&P will be in three years, or where the long-term bond will be in three years, but we do know which we would rather own on a 20-year basis.

查理·芒格:沃伦,我们也预期当前的景象会在不远的将来造成一些真正的混乱。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Warren, we’d also expect that the current scene will cause some real disruption, not too many years ahead.

沃伦·巴菲特:没错,但如果你回顾过去一百年,你几乎可以说,在任何时期,你都会时不时地遇到混乱,如果你那时有很多现金,并且有勇气做点什么,那会非常好。但预测它们或等待它们,这种事情不是我们的游戏。我的意思是,我们在第一季度买了大约50亿美元的股票。而且,你知道,我们不认为它们有任何——好吧,它们不是——它们不——即使与1974年或许多其他时期相比,那也像个笑话。但我们决定我们宁愿持有它们而不是现金,或者我们宁愿持有它们而不是坐等事情变得更便宜。我们不花很多时间做那种事。它可以让你无限期地冻结自己。所以每当我们发现一些我们认为明智的事情可做时,我们就去做,我们希望我们能做得很大。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: That’s true, but if you go back a hundred years, you could almost say that, you know, in almost any period, you will get disruptions from time to time, and it’s very nice if you have a lot of cash then and you have the guts to do something with it. But predicting them or waiting around for them, that sort of thing, is not our game. And I mean, we bought $5 billion worth of equities in the first quarter, something like that. And, you know, we don’t think they’re anything like — well, they aren’t — they’re not — it would be a joke to even compare them to 1974 or a whole bunch of other periods. But we decided we would rather have them than cash, or we would rather have them than sit around and hope that things get a lot cheaper. We don’t spend a lot of time doing that. It — you can freeze yourself out indefinitely. So any time we find something — what we think is intelligent to do, we just do it, and we hope we can do it big.

25. 巴菲特买卖白银过早:“除此之外,完美的交易”

沃伦·巴菲特:第七个问题。

原文

25. Buffett bought and sold silver early: “Other than that, a perfect trade”

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 7.

听众:我叫内森·纳鲁西斯,来自加拿大温哥华。巴菲特先生,芒格先生,我的问题涉及你们之前对白银条的投资。我很想知道你为什么在那个时间点卖出。更具体地说,你是否将你的白银条卖给了白银交易所交易基金的组织者,以换取现金加上可能重要的非现金对价,以防止白银市场剧烈上涨或下跌?非常感谢你愿意与我们分享的任何信息。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Nathan Narusis from Vancouver, Canada. Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, my question concerns your previous silver bullion investment. I’m curious to hear more about why you sold when you did. More specifically, whether you sold your bullion to the organizers of the silver exchange-traded fund in return for cash plus, perhaps, important noncash consideration in order to keep silver markets from either rising or falling sharply. Thank you very much for anything you would care to share with us.

沃伦·巴菲特:我不确定我们卖给了谁,但无论我们卖给了谁,他们都比我聪明得多。(笑)我买得太早了。我卖得太早了。除此之外,这是一次完美的交易。(笑声)查理,你有什么要补充的吗?查理与白银的决定毫无关系,所以那完全是我一个人的责任。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I’m not sure who we sold it to, but whoever we sold it to was a lot smarter than I was. (Laughs) I bought it too early. I sold it too early. Other than that, it was a perfect trade. (Laughter) Charlie, do you have anything to add? Charlie had nothing to do with the silver decision, so that one falls entirely on me.

查理·芒格:我想我们已经展示了自己对白银了解多少。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think we demonstrated how much we know about silver.

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。(笑声)你问我们关于白银的问题,这本身就让我们受宠若惊,因为现在没人再问我们白银了。(笑)但我们以后会找到别的事情做的。你知道,你问题的最后一部分,我认为暗示了一点白银阴谋论。我们一开始——当人们知道我们买了白银后,我们就开始收到各种来信,人们提出各种不同的理论,说套期保值在扼杀市场,或者某类交易者在搞什么名堂。最终,白银的走势取决于供需,就像石油取决于供需一样。石油——60或65美元一桶的油价不是一群石油高管合谋的结果,或者类似的东西。它是一种大宗商品的供需关系。白银是一种小宗商品,但对于任何这种类型的大宗商品,长期来看,供需决定价格。尽管亨特兄弟,我必须承认,在短短几年内,曾设法改变了等式,但他们事后永远希望自己没有那样做。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughter) The very fact you asked us a question on silver flatters us because nobody asks us about silver anymore. (Laughs) But we’ll come up with something else at some point. You know, the last part of your question, there was a small implication, I think, of perhaps a silver conspiracy. We — as soon as we started — it got known that we bought silver, we started getting all these letters in the mail from people who had all these different theories about the fact that hedging was killing things or these kind of traders were doing something. In the end, silver responds as supply and demand just like oil responds to supply and demand. Oil is — the price of oil at 60 or $65 is not a product of a bunch of oil executives conspiring or anything of the sort. It’s supply and demand on a huge commodity. Silver is a small commodity, but on any kind of commodity like that, supply and demand is what determines prices over time. Although the Hunt brothers, I must admit, for a short period there, in a few years, managed to change the equation and they forever wished they hadn’t.

26. 为什么巴菲特将慈善”外包”

沃伦·巴菲特:第八个问题。

原文

26. Why Buffett “outsourced” his philanthropy

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 8.

听众:您好,巴菲特先生。我是来自加州圣莫尼卡的埃本·帕根。您在困难情况下保持镇定似乎非常出色。我非常想知道,当您身处那种令人难以置信的压力情境,知道全世界都在关注,并且您与勒布朗·詹姆斯正面交锋时,您的思维过程是怎样的?(笑声)

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett. Eben Pagan, Santa Monica, California. You seem amazing at keeping your composure in tough situations. I would be very interested to know what your thought process was when you were in that incredibly stressful situation, you knew the world was watching, and you went head-to-head with LeBron James. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:那场比赛是作弊的。(笑声)他才是那个有问题的人。(笑)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: The game was rigged. (Laughter) He was the one that had a problem. (Laughs)

听众:我真正想知道的是,我是您和盖茨先生以及你们将创造的所有价值回馈社会的理念的忠实粉丝。我有一家成功的企业,我也想做同样的事,但可能是在20、30或40年后,有这样的时间跨度,我很想知道您会给我这样一个人什么建议。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: What I’d really like to know is, I’m a real big fan of you and Mr. Gates and your philosophy of channeling all the value you’ve created back into the world. And I have a successful business, and I’d like to do the same, but maybe in 20 or 30 or 40 years, and with a time horizon like that, I’d love to know what advice you’d give someone like me.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,在我看来,你的时间范围没什么问题,只要你打算——只要你计划把它回馈给社会,我的意思是,A) 无论如何,决定权完全在你,你想不想做。但假设你想回馈,或者以某种方式把它还给社会,如果你的资金以一个比一般人更快的速度复利增长,你实际上就是社会的一个捐赠基金。你知道,非营利领域各种各样的组织都有捐赠基金,他们认为拥有它很明智,他们这样做通常是为了获得标准回报。如果你能以更高的速度复利,并且打算以后再回馈,那就让别人来处理当前的捐赠,你在20或30年后处理。但你知道,我认为这是一个个人决定。

我一直觉得我会以高于平均水平的速度复利资金,如果在我还活着的时候,就把我资本中很大一部分给一个在几个月内就会花掉它的人,那将是愚蠢的,因为以后可能积累出大得多的数额。另一方面,时机到了,我本想让我的妻子做这件事,但当这没有实现时,是时候做点什么了。幸运的是,我有一些很棒的选项可用,我可以继续做我喜欢做的事情,我把所有的工作都外包出去了。但是,你知道,当我妻子生孩子时,我们雇了产科医生。我没有试图自己接生。我的意思是,当牙疼时,我不会让查理来修。我会去看牙医。

所以当我有钱要捐出去时,我相信把它交给那些充满活力、努力工作、聪明、用自己的钱做事的人——我已经有五个不同的组织,包括我的三个孩子——我相信把它交给那些人。而我可以继续做我喜欢做的事。所以对我来说,我一分钱都没捐出去过。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, there’s nothing wrong with your time horizon, in my view, as long as you’re going — as long as you plan to give it back, I mean, A) the decision is yours entirely, anyway, whether you want to do it. But assuming you want to give it back, or give it to society in some way, if you’re compounding your money at a rate greater than people generally do, you are, in effect, an endowment fund for society. And, you know, all kinds of organizations in the nonprofit area have endowment funds, and they think it’s wise to have it, and they do that in order to get standard returns, usually. And if you can compound it more and you’re going to give it back later on, let someone else take care of current giving, and you can take care of giving in 20 or 30 years. But, you know, I regard that as a personal decision.

I always felt that I would compound money at a rate higher than average, and it would have been foolish to give away a significant portion of my capital to somebody who would spend it within, you know, months, when there could be a really much larger amount later on. And, on the other hand, the time had come, I’d really thought my wife would be doing that, and when that didn’t work out, the time had come to do something with it. And, fortunately, I had some great options available, and I get to keep on doing what I love doing and I let some — I farm out all the work. But, you know, when my wife had a baby, we hired an obstetrician. I didn’t try and do it myself. I mean, when a tooth hurts, you know, I don’t have Charlie fix it. I go to a dentist.

So when I have money to give away, I believe in turning it over to people who are — and I’ve got five different organizations, including my three kids — and I believe in turning it over to people who are energized, working hard at it, smart, you know, doing it with their own money, the whole thing. And I get to keep doing what I like doing. So as far as I’m concerned, I haven’t given away a penny. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为由别人来捐钱对股东来说是件好事。(笑声)我告诉你,如果沃伦只想讨论如何与捐款申请人打交道,我们的生活就会是另一番景象。而且我们也不会很适应那样。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think it’s wonderful for the shareholders that somebody else is giving away the money. (Laughter) I tell you, if all Warren wanted to talk about was interfacing with applicants for donations, we would have a different life. And we wouldn’t be very well adapted to it, either.

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。你知道,实际上对于那些较小的捐赠,我都把它们转给我姐姐多丽丝,她做得很好,也很享受,花了很多时间在上面,很擅长,我很高兴她做,而我不做。你知道,事实是,在实际意义上,我什么也没捐出去。我拥有生活中我想要的一切。你知道,我睡眠不可能更好,吃得也不可能更好。其他人可能认为我可以吃得更好。(笑声)我什么也没有放弃。现在,如果你想想,你知道,有人放弃了一个晚上出去,有人放弃了自己的时间做某事,有人今年没带孩子去迪斯尼乐园,因为他们把钱捐给了教会,我的意思是,这些人在他们所给予的东西中以某种方式改变了他们的生活。我的生活一点都没改变。我不想改变我的生活。

我做的事情让我觉得很有趣。而且,你知道,这只是一堆股票凭证,它们迟早会流向某个地方。我真正想做的是继续做我喜欢做的事,并觉得我因此积累起来的那些索取支票(claim checks),将会得到有效的利用,用于那些即使我真的有精力和兴趣亲自去做也会想用的同样的一般性目的。但是别人可以继续做这些工作。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. You know, actually on the smaller ones I send them all to my sister Doris, and she does a great job with it, and enjoys it, spends lots of time on it, good at it, and I’m glad she does it and I don’t. You know, the truth is, I haven’t given away anything in a practical matter. I have everything in life I want. You know, there’s no way I can sleep better, I can eat better. Other people might think I could eat better. (Laughter) I haven’t given up anything. Now, if you think about it, you know, somebody that gives up having an evening out, somebody that, you know, gives up their time working on something, somebody that doesn’t take their kids to Disneyland this year because they’ve, you know, they’ve given the money instead to their church, I mean, those people are changing their lives in some way with what they give. I haven’t changed my life at all. I don’t want to change my life.

I’m having a lot of fun doing what I do. And, you know, it’s just a bunch of stock certificates that one way or another they’re going to go someplace. And what I really want to do is keep doing what I enjoy doing, and feel that the claim checks that I accumulate that comes about for this, are going to get used effectively for the same general purposes that I would want to use them for if I really had the energy and the interest in doing the job myself. But somebody else can keep doing the work.

27. 用少量资金总能获得高回报

沃伦·巴菲特:第九个问题。

原文

27. You can always earn big returns with small amounts of money

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 9.

听众:您好。我是来自纽约州拉奇蒙特的埃里克·施莱因。我的问题是问巴菲特先生的。巴菲特先生,您声称能做到每年50%的回报。如果您必须用一个小投资组合重新开始,您还会坚持买入并持有,以合理价格买入优质公司吗?还是会像您在巴菲特合伙公司时期那样,做套利,深入钻研本杰明·格雷厄姆式的烟蒂股?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. I’m Eric Schline (PH) from Larchmont, New York. My question is directed at Mr. Buffett. Mr. Buffett, you claim you can do 50 percent a year. If you had to start over with a small portfolio, would you still be doing buy and hold, buying quality companies at a good price, or would you be doing arbitrage and really getting down to the nitty-gritty Benjamin Graham cigar butts that you did in the Buffett Partnership?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。如果我操作的资金非常小——你们都应该希望我不是这样——(笑)——如果我操作的资金非常小,我会做完全——几乎完全不同的事情。我的意思是,你的宇宙会扩大。我是说,如果你在寻找机会,当你投资1万美元时,需要考虑的选项数量是当你投资1000亿美元时的成千上万倍。显然,如果你有那么多选项——你拥有1000亿美元时的所有选项(除了收购整个企业),再加上所有这些其他选项。所以你可以用非常少的资金获得非常高的回报,而且永远如此。我不是说每个人都能做到,但如果你了解一些关于价值和投资的知识,你会用小资金找到机会,而不会是伯克希尔自己拥有的那种组合。我们无法通过将30亿、40亿、50亿美元投入一只股票来获得惊人的回报。

那是行不通的。甚至接近都做不到。但如果查理或我处于操作100万美元、50万美元或200万美元的位置,我们会在这里那里找到一些小东西——而且不总是股票——我们可以获得非常高的资本回报。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. If I were working with a very small sum — and you should all hope I’m not — (laughs) — if I were working with a very small sum, I would be doing entirely — almost entirely — different things than I do. I mean, there’s — your universe expands. I mean, if you’re looking, there’s thousands and thousands and thousands of times as many options to think about if you’re investing $10,000 than if you’re investing a hundred billion. And, obviously, if you have that many — you’ve got all the options you got with a hundred billion, except buying entire businesses, and you’ve got all of these other options. So you can earn very high returns with very small amounts of money, and it will always be such. I don’t mean that everybody can do it, but if you know something about values and investments, you will find opportunities with small sums, and it will not be with a portfolio that Berkshire itself owns. We can’t earn phenomenal returns putting 3 billion, 4 billion, 5 billion in a stock.

It won’t work that way. It won’t even come close to working that way. But if Charlie or I were in a position of working with a million dollars or $500,000 or 2 million, we would find little things here and there — and it wouldn’t always be stocks — where we would earn very high returns on capital. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。但现在想这个没意义。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. But it’s — there’s no point our thinking about that now. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:但他正在想,查理。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: But he’s thinking about it, Charlie. (Laughter)

28. 次贷违约不会成为”巨大的锚”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们再回答一个问题,然后我们去吃午饭,之后我们再回来。所以现在我们进行第十个问题。10号位置的麦克风有声音吗?

原文

28. Subprime mortgage defaults won’t be “huge anchor”

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. We’ll take one more, and then we will go to lunch and then we’ll — after that we’ll come back. So we’ll go to number 10 now. Is the microphone open on 10?

听众:喂?喂?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello? Hello?

沃伦·巴菲特:我们这里有问题吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Do we have a problem here?

听众:沃伦和查理,我的问题是,你们如何看待次贷市场相对于外国国民市场的看法?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Warren and Charlie, my question is, what’s your opinion regarding the subprime market relative to the foreign national market?

查理·芒格:我们听不见。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: We can’t hear that.

沃伦·巴菲特:我们听不见。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We can’t hear that.

听众:你们如何看待次贷市场相对于外国国民市场的看法?对不起。我叫卡尔文·钟,来自纽约。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: What’s your opinion regarding the subprime market relative to the foreign national market? Sorry. My name is Calvin Chong (PH). I’m from New York.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,次贷市场,在贷款机构、中介机构和借款人自身的共同鼓励下,导致许多人购买了大量他们并不真正想要拥有的房屋,或者一旦需要正常还款时就无力偿还的房屋。而这些个人、机构,有时还有中介机构,将遭受不同程度的损失。现在,问题在于这是否会蔓延并开始大规模影响整体经济,我的猜测是——有些地方会相当严重。但我猜测,如果失业率没有显著上升,利率没有大幅上升,那么这将对那些涉及其中的人——有些人非常深地卷入其中——成为一个非常大的问题。一些机构也非常深地卷入其中。但我不认为——我认为仅凭这个因素不太可能触发整体经济的大规模问题。我认为——你知道,我看过几家金融机构。

我看过它们的10-Q和10-K报表,我看到它们在过去几年发放的贷款中,有很大比例允许借款人支付非常少的按揭月供,但是,当然,这些非正常的低额付款会增加本金,以至于他们后来必须在某个时间点支付高于平均水平的月供。我认为这是愚蠢的贷款,也是愚蠢的借款,因为一个第一年只能支付正常按揭月供20%或30%的人,几年后极不可能有能力支付正常按揭月供的110%。那些人和那些机构大多是在赌房屋价格会不断上涨,他们是否能付款真的无关紧要。这在短期内是奏效的,直到它不再奏效。当它不再奏效时,就会有异常多的房源进入市场,类似于六七年前我们所在的行业——预制房屋行业——所发生的情况,这改变了整个格局。

从需求方来看,人们不再认为他们买的是必然会上涨的东西,然后供给来自于那些之前抱有这种预期、如果价格不上涨就不想持有资产的人。所以你会在这个领域看到大量的痛苦。你已经看到了一些痛苦。我不认为——我不认为它会成为经济的巨大锚。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, the subprime market, encouraged by both lenders, intermediaries, and borrowers themselves, resulted in a lot of people buying a lot of houses that they really didn’t want to own or that they can’t make payments on for once the normal payments were required. And the people, the institutions, in some cases the intermediaries, are going to suffer in various degrees. Now, the question is whether it spills over and starts affecting the general economy to a big degree, and I would — my guess would be — it’s quite severe some places. But my guess would be that if unemployment doesn’t rise significantly, and interest rates don’t move up dramatically, that it will be a — it will be a very big problem for those involved, and some people are very involved. Some institutions are very involved. But I don’t see it — I think it’s unlikely that that factor alone triggers anything of a massive nature in the general economy. I think it — you know, I’ve looked at several financial institutions.

I’ve looked at their 10-Qs and 10-Ks, and I’ve seen that a very high percentage of the loans they made in the last few years allowed people to make very tiny payments on the mortgages, but, of course, those subnormal payments increased principal so that they had to make above average payments later on at some point. And I think that’s dumb lending, and I think it’s dumb borrowing, because somebody that can only make 20 or 30 percent of their normal mortgage payments the first year is very unlikely to be able to make 110 percent of their normal mortgage payments a few years later. Those people and those institutions were largely betting on the fact that house prices would just keep going up, and it really didn’t make any difference whether they could make the payments. And that worked for a while until it didn’t work. And when it doesn’t work, you have an abnormal supply of housing coming on the market, similar to what happened in manufactured housing, the business we’re in, six or seven years ago, and that changes the whole equation.

From people on the demand side, you no longer have people thinking they’re buying something that’s bound to go up, and then you have the supply coming on from the people who were anticipating that before and really don’t want to hold the asset unless it’s going to go up. So you’ll see plenty of misery in that field. You’ve already seen some. And I don’t think — I don’t think it’s going to be any huge anchor to the economy. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。很多发生的事情是罪恶与愚蠢的结合,之所以发生,很大程度上是因为会计师允许贷款机构在贷款上显示利润,而这些贷款对于任何头脑正常的人来说,在贷款到期并改善状况之前,都不会显示任何利润。再一次,如果会计师在基本工作上失职,那么,巨大的过度和愚蠢不可避免地会到来,这里就是这样。国家在向我认为的”值得帮助的穷人”提供低息首套房贷款方面的经验一直非常好。但是一旦你付给一大群人高额佣金,让他们向”不值得帮助的穷人”或过度扩张的富人放贷,你就会遭受惊人的贷款损失。我不明白那些人是怎么做到的,而且还能在早上刮胡子——因为回头看他们,那是一张既邪恶又愚蠢的脸。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. A lot of what went on was a combination of sin and folly, and a lot of it happened because the accountants allowed the lending institutions to show profits on loans where nobody in his right mind would have showed any profit until the loan had matured into a better condition. And, once again, if the accountants lay down on their basic job, why, huge excess and folly is going to come inevitably, and that happened here. The national experience with low-interest starter home loans to what I would call the deserving poor, has been very good. But the minute you pay a bunch of people high commissions to make loans to the undeserving poor, or the overstretched rich, you can get loan losses that are staggering. And I don’t see how the people did it and still shaved in the morning, because looking back at them was a face that was evil and stupid.

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特:过去几个月,你们看到了一些非常有趣的数据,关于连第一次或第二次付款都没有支付的贷款比例。这真的——这不应该发生。顺便说一句,这曾在预制房屋行业发生过前兆。我的意思是,在1990年代末——证券化加剧了问题,因为一旦你在内布拉斯加州的格兰德岛,有人把移动房屋——或者预制房屋——卖给另一个人,他们需要3000美元的首付,而销售人员将获得6000美元的佣金,相信我,一些非常奇怪的事情就会开始发生。如果做这件事的人必须在格兰德岛借钱,当地银行家很可能会看到发生了什么,然后说,我们不想掺和这种销售人员伪造首付之类的事情。

但是一旦你把这些东西打包并证券化,通过主要的投资银行销售,并以各种层级分割,你知道,原有的纪律就从系统中消失了。而证券化真的加剧了这一点,我们在次贷中看到了这一点,就像六七年前在预制房屋中看到的一样。而且,就像我说的,这还没有完全在整个系统中释放出来,但我认为它不会导致巨大的麻烦。现在,我们确实看到国家的某些地区,房地产市场至少需要几年才能复苏。我的意思是,某些地区的库存积压相对于正常的月成交量来说是巨大的。那些指望在那里炒房的人会被翻转,但方式不同。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: You’ve seen some very interesting figures in the last few months on the number — on the percentage — of loans where people didn’t even make the first or second payment. And there’s really — that shouldn’t happen. That happened, incidentally — you had a prelude to this in the manufactured housing industry. I mean, in the late 1990s — and securitization accentuated the problem, because once you had somebody in Grand Island, Nebraska, selling a mobile home — or a manufactured home — to someone and they needed a $3,000 down payment and the salesman was going to get a $6,000 commission, believe me, you start getting some very strange things going on. Now, if the person doing that had to borrow the money in Grand Island, the chances are the local banker would have seen what was happening and said, you know, we don’t want any of this where the salesman fakes the down payment and all that.

But once you just package those things and securitize them so they get sold through major investment banking houses and sliced up in various tranches and so on, you know, the old — the discipline leaves the system. And securitization really accentuates that, and we have had that in subprime loans, just as we had it in manufactured housing six or seven years ago. And, like I say, that has not all worked its way through the system, but I don’t think it’s going to cause huge troubles. Now, we do see certain areas of the country where it will be at least a couple of years before real estate recovers. I mean, the overhang is huge compared to normal monthly volume in certain sections. And the people that were counting on flipping things there are going to get flipped, but in a different way.

下午场

1. “领域不创造机会,头脑创造机会”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。如果你们准备好了,我们也准备好了。我们将按同样的顺序继续,因为其他房间已经有人在等待了。所以我们进行第11个问题。

原文

Afternoon Session

1. “Areas don’t make opportunities, brains make opportunities”

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. If you’re ready, we are. We’re going to keep going in the same order because there’s people in the other rooms that have been waiting. So we will go to number 11.

听众:大家好。我是来自Superfund的克里斯蒂安·巴哈。我有一个问题想请教巴菲特先生。您如何看待管理型期货基金?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. My name is Christian Baha from Superfund. I have a question for you, Mr. Buffett. What do you think about managed futures funds?

沃伦·巴菲特:关于哪种基金?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: About which fund?

查理·芒格:我没太听清。什么基金?

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I didn’t quite get that. What kind of fund?

听众:管理型期货基金。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Managed futures funds.

查理·芒格:哦,管理型——

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Oh, managed —

听众:就像一个非常多元化的股票和债券投资组合,做多和做空,涵盖所有不同的市场,基于最自然的人类行为,试图追随羊群行为?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Like a very diversified portfolio in stocks and bonds going long and short, all the different markets, based on the most natural human behavior, trying following a herd behavior?

查理·芒格:管理型期货基金。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Managed futures funds.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我要说的是,我们认为最合乎逻辑的基金是我们伯克希尔哈撒韦的基金,在这里,本质上,我们可以做任何有意义的事情,而不被迫做任何我们认为没有意义的事情。所以任何致力于金融市场中某个有限领域的实体,我们认为,相对于一个有完全权限(且由正确的人领导)的实体,是处于劣势的。但你——这是你在任何基金下都会做出的假设。所以我们不希望把我们的资金投入到只买债券、只买期货或诸如此类的东西上。我们——伯克希尔会买期货。伯克希尔会买债券。我们买过——我们买货币。我们买企业。所以我认为缩小可能性的范围是个错误。我们的范围仅仅因为规模而缩小,但我们不试图——我们不以任何方式限制自己的行动。但归根结底,没有哪种形式能产生投资结果。对冲基金不会产生投资结果。

私募股权不会产生投资结果。共同基金也不会产生。如果仅仅是形式问题,我们都会称自己为,你知道,不管那种形式是什么。真正起作用的,是管理它的人是否了解自己的局限性,是否知道自己的优势所在,是否在有机会利用优势时出手,并在看不到机会时退出。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would say that we think the most logical fund is the one we have at Berkshire where, essentially, we can do anything that makes sense and are not compelled to do anything that we don’t think makes sense. So any entity that is devoted to a limited segment of the financial market we would regard as being at a disadvantage to one that has total authority if you have the right person in charge. But you — that’s an assumption you’re going to make under any fund. So we would not want to devote our funds to something that was only going to buy bonds, something that was only going to buy futures, or anything of the sort. We would — we buy futures at Berkshire. We buy bonds at Berkshire. We’ve bought — we buy currencies. We buy businesses. So I think it’s a mistake to shrink the universe of possibilities. Ours is shrunk simply by size, but we don’t try to — we don’t set out to circumscribe our actions in any way. But in the end, there’s no form that produces investment results. Hedge funds don’t produce investment results.

Private equity doesn’t produce investment results. Mutual funds don’t produce it. If it was simply a matter of form, we’d all call ourselves, you know, whatever that form happened to be. What really makes the difference is whether the person that’s running it knows what their limitations are, knows where their strengths are, plays when they have the opportunity to play advantageously, and stays out when they don’t see any opportunities. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。我要更进一步。我要说的是,平均来看,我预计管理型期货基金每美元每年的回报在糟糕和负值之间。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I’d go further. I’d say averaged out, I would expect that the return per dollar per year in managed futures funds would be somewhere between lousy and negative. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:我同意这点。是的。通常那些都是销售工具。我的意思是,人们发现某种东西可以卖得动,它可能是——你知道,某个时候可能是债券基金,可能是——但一旦他们找到可以卖的东西,它就会被卖给公众。它会一直卖到卖不动为止。这意味着大量资金涌入,而对有限数量的机会的竞争也异常激烈。我认为,基于”这是一个巨大的机会领域”来购买某种东西是错误的。领域不创造机会;基本上,头脑创造机会。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: And I would agree with that. Yeah. Usually those are sales tools. I mean, people find out something that will sell, and it can be — you know, it can be bond funds at some point, it could be — but when they find something to sell, it will get sold to the public. That will be — it will sell until it stops selling. And that means lots of money comes in and lots of competition for a limited number of opportunities. And I think it’s a mistake to get sold something on the basis that here is a great area of opportunity. Areas don’t make opportunities; brains make opportunities, basically.

2. 大量阅读,寻找机会,避免灾难

沃伦·巴菲特:第12个问题。

原文

2. Read a lot, look for opportunities, avoid catastrophes

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 12.

听众:马修·莫纳汉,来自加州帕洛阿尔托。巴菲特先生,芒格先生,首先,我想感谢你们多年来如此慷慨地分享你们的智慧和知识。尽管我们从未谋面,但我把你们两位视为亲密的个人导师,并将我在商业上迄今取得的任何成功都归功于你们的教诲和哲学。谢谢你们。我的问题是:对于一个23岁、有远大抱负、一些初始营运资金,以及像您所说的,在投资、数学和技术等领域有”基因配置”的年轻人,您预见到未来50年甚至100年有哪些重要的机会领域?如果您站在我的立场上,为了创造巨大的价值,您学习、攻克和掌握这些机会领域的方法和策略会是什么?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Matthew Monahan (PH) from Palo Alto, California. Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, first of all, I want to thank both of you for so freely sharing your wisdom and knowledge over the years. Even though we’ve never met in person, I consider you both to be close personal mentors and attribute your teachings and philosophies to any success I’ve had in business so far. So thank you. Here’s my question: for a 23-year-old with high ambitions, some initial working capital, and a genetic wiring, as you call it, for disciplines like investments, mathematics, and technology, what do you foresee as the significant areas of opportunity over the next 50, even 100, years? And, if you were in my shoes, what would be your approach and methodology for really learning, tackling, and mastering these areas of opportunity for the purpose of massive value creation?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我仍然非常推崇阅读所有能看到的东西。坦白说,当你像我20岁时那样有机会和洛里默·戴维森这样的人交谈时——我从那四五个小时的谈话中学到的东西可能比在大学里学到的还要多,除了学到一些会计和一两个类似科目之外。所以你想尽可能多地吸收。如果你具备你所说的那些素质,你会随着时间推移看到那些领域。我的意思是,我们——查理和我可能——你知道,我们通过很多不同的方式赚了钱,其中一些我们30或40年前并没有预料到。但我们确实有能力识别一些机会;我们没有能力识别另一些。但我们的确知道什么时候我们知道自己在做什么,什么时候我们不知道,我们只是不断地寻找。我们对事物有好奇心。例如,在长期资本管理公司危机那样的时刻,你会知道会有赚钱的方法。

我的意思是,它们就在那里,你只需要每天阅读和思考八到十个小时,你就会覆盖很多可能性,其中很可能有很大比例是好的,有些是极好的。所以你不可能提前规划好一切。你不可能有一张明确的路线图。但你可以有一个思考的储备库,观察不同类型的生意,不同类型的证券,观察不同地方的市场,然后你会发现相当数量的机会。你不会发现每一个机会。我们错过了各种各样的东西。但最重要的是,你的思维模式中要有一些东西,确保你永远不会做可能让你损失惨重的事情。我的意思是,我们——我们最好的想法并不比别人最好的想法好,但我们从来没有很多会把我们拖回原地的操作。所以我们从未经历进两步退一步。我们大概是进两步,退零点一步。

但避免灾难是非常重要的事情,在未来也将非常重要。我的意思是,你会有机会参与灾难的。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I remain very big on the idea of reading everything in sight. And, frankly, when you get the chance to talk to somebody like Lorimer Davidson, as I did when I was 20 years old — I probably learned more from Lorimer Davidson in those four or five hours than I learned in college, with the exception of learning some accounting and one or two subjects like that. So you just want to soak it up. If you have those qualities you talked about, you’ll see the areas as you go along. I mean, we have — Charlie and I probably — you know, we’ve made money in a lot of different ways, some of which we didn’t anticipate, you know, when we were — 30 or 40 years ago. But we did have the ability to recognize some; we didn’t have the ability to recognize others. But we did know when we knew what we were doing and when we didn’t, and we just kept looking. We had a curiosity about things. You would know at a time like the Long-Term Capital Management crisis, for example, that there were going to be ways to make money.

I mean, they were going to be out there, and all you had to do was just read and think eight or ten hours a day and you were going to cover a lot of possibilities, probably a very high percentage of them good, and some of them sensational. So you can’t really lay it out ahead of time. You can’t have a defined roadmap. But you can have a reservoir of thinking, looking at different kinds of businesses, looking at different kinds of securities, looking at markets in different places, and you will then spot a reasonable number of things that come along. You won’t spot every one of them. We’ve missed all kinds of things. But the biggest thing, too, is to have something in the way you’re programmed so that you don’t ever do anything where you can lose a lot. I mean, we — our best ideas have not been better than other people’s best ideas, but we’ve never had a lot of things that pulled us way back. So we never went two steps forward and one step back. We probably went two steps forward and a fraction of a step back.

But avoiding the catastrophes is a very important thing, and it will be important in the future. I mean, you will have your chance to participate in catastrophes. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。当然,当你年轻时,应该去低效的市场寻找。你不应该试图猜测,你知道,哪家制药公司有更好的药物研发管道。当你年轻时,你应该去一个非常低效的地方。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. And, of course, the place to look when you’re young is in the inefficient markets. You shouldn’t be trying to guess whether, you know, one drug company has a better drug pipeline than another. You want to go, when you’re young, someplace that’s very inefficient.

沃伦·巴菲特:而且你不应该试图猜测股市是涨还是跌,或者长期债券的收益率会如何变化。我的意思是,在那类游戏中你没有任何优势,但在很少有人玩的游戏中,也许他们甚至脑子都不太对劲——在思考某个问题的方式上——你可以有很大的优势。RTC(重组信托公司)是一个很好的例子,说明有机会赚很多钱。我的意思是,这里有价值数千亿美元的房地产待售,而卖家对这些资产没有经济利益,渴望了结此事,他们在非常糟糕的时机出售——那些在贷款方面有冒险精神的人不再放贷,而那些在房地产股权方面有冒险精神的人已经被清理出局了。

所以你有很好的宏观环境,加上分析情况的投入程度在卖方(也就是政府,一群对它没有经济利益、可能急于完成工作的人)和买方(属于普遍谨慎类型的人)之间存在不平衡。因为更具冒险精神的人已经退出了游戏。而且有大量的房产。所以你会得到这些机会,你以后还会看到更多。我的意思是,你一生中不会缺少机会,尽管会有一些日子你会感觉相反。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: And you shouldn’t be trying to guess whether the stock market is going to go up or whether long-term bonds are going to change in yield. I mean, you don’t have anything going in that kind of a game, but you can have a lot going in games that very few people are playing, and maybe where they’ve even got their heads screwed on wrong, in terms of how they’re thinking about the subject. The RTC was a great example of a chance to make a lot of money. I mean, here was a seller of hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of real estate where the people that were selling it had no economic interest in it, were eager to wind up the thing, you know, and they were selling at a terrible time when the people who had been venturesome in lending were no longer lending, the people who had been venturesome in the equity end of real estate had gotten cleaned out.

So you had a great background of environment, and then you had an imbalance of intensity, in terms of analyzing situations between the seller, which was the government, with a bunch of people who had no economic interest in it and were probably eager to wind up the job, and buyers on the other side who were of the generally cautious type. Because the more venturesome type had taken themselves out of action. And there were huge amounts of property. So you get these opportunities, and you’ll get more. I mean, there won’t be any scarcity of opportunities in your life, although there will be days when you feel that way.

3. 政治与巨灾保险

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们现在转到其他房间。他们已经等待了。第13个问题。

原文

3. Politics and catastrophe insurance

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Let’s go to the other rooms now. They’ve been waiting. Number 13.

听众:约翰·戈斯,来自佛罗里达州基韦斯特。卡特里娜飓风引发的诉讼导致了一些裁决,将洪水和风灾造成的损失合并处理,而保险公司认为他们只承保风灾。结果,一些保险公司正在大幅减少在这些州的承保范围。佛罗里达州最近授权其名为Citizens的保险公司在风灾和房主保险方面更加激进,同时却不允许其他保险公司要求提高费率。结果是,一些实力雄厚的保险公司已宣布减少在佛罗里达的承保范围或退出该州。这种政府干预是保险业的随机波动,还是对未来的一大担忧?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: John Goss (PH), Key West, Florida. Katrina created litigation that resulted in some rulings that combined flood damage and wind damage where the insurance companies thought they covered wind only. As a result, some insurance companies are significantly reducing coverage in those states. Florida recently empowered their insurance company called Citizens to be more aggressive not only with wind storms, but also with homeowners, while at the same time not allowing requested rate increases of other insurance companies. The result is that some solid insurance companies have announced reducing their coverage or pulling out of Florida. Is this type of government interference a random fluctuation in insurance or a major cause of concern for the future?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这是一个很容易理解问题两面性的问题。我的意思是,普通房主不会坐下来逐条阅读他的保险单,很多时候代理人也不会仔细向他们解释。所以当有事发生,他以为被保了,结果发现他买的保单并不承保时,他会感到非常不满。当成千上万的人都感到不满时,你很可能会看到某种政府干预,可能通过司法判决或政府威胁来扩大保单条款,超出保险公司认为自己承保的范围。现在,有过这种经历的保险公司,未来如果认为保单的措辞不会被遵守,就会非常不愿意承保。

另一方面,我完全理解有些人的房子在风暴中被吹毁,一部分是水灾损失,一部分是风灾损失,他们觉得自己被毁了,而保险公司跑过来挥舞着一份满是细小字体的保单,他会感到不满。所以这确实是一场斗争。而且,你知道,我想如果我来签发保单,我会用非常大的字体和非常容易理解的方式列出除外责任。但我仍然会预期,如果有成千上万的人遭受损失,法院和立法者可能会试图扩大合同条款,甚至废除合同条款,以便照顾他们自己的选民,并认为像我这样的人或拥有保险公司的机构投资者比房主更能承受这种压力。

当你面临这个问题时,是否应该让全国人民,通过内布拉斯加州或明尼苏达州或其他地方的保单,以某种方式为佛罗里达的飓风补贴保费,这变得非常棘手。我的意思是,如果飓风变得更频繁、更猛烈,为飓风投保可能会变得非常昂贵。事实上,它可能变得如此昂贵,以至于人们真的不愿意承担保险的成本,他们会想以某种方式将其社会化。当然,内布拉斯加的那个人会说:“听着。你选择去海边住,你觉得那很棒,我们留在这里忍受可怕的冬天,但我们为什么要付你一部分保险费呢?“所以这场斗争会继续下去,如果佛罗里达发生一千亿或一千五百亿美元的可保损失,这场斗争将真正展开。因为如果佛罗里达州介入赔偿人民,那将意味着税收的巨大变化。将会有人呼吁华盛顿来买单。

但是,你知道,那些没有暴露在某种风险下的人,应该为那些选择暴露在该风险下的人支付多少——这变成了一个政治问题。我的猜测是,在未来五年或十年的某个时候,你会看到一场关于这个问题的斗争,其规模将远远超过我们在卡特里娜飓风后看到的。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s an easy one to understand both sides of the question on. I mean, the average homeowner is not going to sit there and read line-by-line what is in his insurance policy, and a lot of times the agent is not going to explain it carefully to them. So when something comes along and he thinks it’s insured and it turns out that he bought a policy where it wasn’t insured, he’s going to feel very unhappy about it. And when tens of thousands of people feel unhappy about it, you’re very likely to get some kind of governmental interference, and probably an inflation by judicial degree or by threats of the government to, in effect, extend the terms of the policy beyond what the insurance company thought it was insuring. Now, an insurance company that’s had that kind of experience is going to be very reluctant to write insurance policies in the future, if they don’t think that the words will be adhered to.

And, on the other hand, I can fully understand some guy who’s had his house blown away in a storm and a lot of it was water damage and a lot of it was wind damage, thinking that, you know, he’s been wiped out and the insurance company comes around waving a policy that’s got a lot of small print in it, you know, he’s going to be unhappy. So it’s a real tussle on that. And, you know, I guess I would — if I were writing policies, I would put the exclusions in very big type and very easy to understand. But I still would expect that if thousands of people suffered losses, that courts and legislators would probably seek to stretch the terms, or even abrogate the terms of the contract, in order to take care of their own constituents and figure that guys like me or institutional investors who own insurance companies can afford it better than the homeowner.

When you get into the question of whether you should, in effect, have all of the people in the country pay premiums for, we’ll say, hurricanes, in a way, subsidize it through policies in Nebraska or Minnesota or someplace, for hurricanes in Florida, that gets very tough. I mean, it can be very expensive to insure against hurricanes if hurricanes become more frequent and more intense. In fact, it can become so expensive that people really will not want to bear the cost of insurance, and they’ll want to socialize it some way. And, of course, the guy in Nebraska says, “Look it. You went down there to live on the ocean and you thought it was wonderful, and we’re back here with these terrible winters, but why should we pay a portion of your insurance?” So you’re going to have that tussle go on, and you’ll really have that tussle go on if you get a hundred billion dollar or $150 billion insured loss in Florida. Because that will mean a huge change in taxation if the State of Florida steps in to compensate people. There will be calls for Washington to pay for it.

But, you know, it’s how much people who are not exposed to a risk should pay for the people who have elected to be exposed to the risk is — you know, it becomes a political question. And my guess is that sometime in the next five or 10 years, you’ll see a struggle on that subject that exceeds — far exceeds — what we saw on Katrina. Charlie?

查理·芒格:我没什么要补充的。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add.

4. 我们仍在寻找大规模收购

沃伦·巴菲特:第14个问题?

原文

4. We’re still looking for a big acquisition

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 14?

听众:您好。我叫格伦·汤,是来自纽约的股东。我想祝贺伯克希尔的新任董事。苏是一个了不起的新成员。我的问题是——

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. My name is Glenn Tongue, and I’m a shareholder from New York. I’d like to congratulate you on Berkshire’s newest director. Sue is a terrific addition. My question is —

沃伦·巴菲特:我们同意你的看法。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We agree with you.

听众

2007年股东大会

第4/6部分

而这家公司——你知道,上百页的报告、公关人员、大量照片——花了大价钱。但你在那份报告中找不到他们去年每千立方英尺或每桶石油的发现成本。这是油气公司在多年间最重要的数据,但每年都很关键。它甚至不会被讨论——不被讨论的原因是它实在太糟糕了——但事实上它甚至不会被提及,而一旦触及,也是以不诚实的方式。当我们读到管理层基本上在传递不诚实信息的东西时,这对我们来说很重要。你知道,就像我说的,在可流通证券方面,我们可以通过卖出股票来解决这个问题,这与收购整个企业不同。但我认为你可以通过阅读年度股东信学到很多。我的意思是,首先,如果这封信明显是投资者关系部门或外部顾问之类的东西,那会让你对这个人有所了解。

如果他连每年花几页纸跟把钱交给他投资的人交流都不愿意,我的意思是——我真的——我对这样的人有些疑问。所以我喜欢那种感觉,就像直接听到某个视我为合伙人的人的声音。你可能无法完全达到那种程度,但当我一点都感觉不到时,我不喜欢。我还是买过——我们仍然买进了一些——在可流通证券方面——我们买进了一些极其优秀的企业,尽管我们认为它们的管理者我们并不太喜欢,因为我们觉得他们没法搞砸这些企业。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。我认为这完全正确。有两件事:企业的质量和管理层的质量。如果企业足够好,它能够容忍一个糟糕的管理者。反过来,一个真正优秀的管理者进入一个真正糟糕的行业,他通常也会表现得很不理想。换句话说,很少有人能像沃伦年轻时犯傻那样,接手一个完全注定失败的纺织企业——

沃伦·巴菲特:没错。

查理·芒格:——并把它变成今天这个样子。你不应该指望在每片灌木丛下都能找到另一个沃伦。

沃伦·巴菲特:不过我在20年后想明白了。我得为自己说句公道话。(笑)20年,我终于意识到自己入错了行。但有些企业——如果你让我在美國所有CEO中第一个挑选,然后说现在你的工作是经营福特汽车,或者挑一个处于极其艰难行业的公司,你知道,我是不会干的。我的意思是,这太难了。他们也许能解决问题,如果他们得到工会和一大堆事情的合作,但这绝不仅仅取决于担任那个职位的CEO。他依赖太多外部的好事发生,才能说他一个人能完成工作,即使他是世界上最优秀的。

8. 股票优于债券,但预期要适度

沃伦·巴菲特:第四个问题。

参会者:嗨,沃伦。嗨,查理。我是来自加州圣何塞的Walter Chang(音译)。我和妻子七月份就要迎来第一个男孩,我们打算以你的名字给他取名沃伦。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:你又想让我把你写进遗嘱了。

参会者:查理,下一个孩子我会支持你。

沃伦·巴菲特:我可能会把他往后排,也许排到第五个。(笑声)

参会者:沃伦和查理——沃伦,如果你要为你1999年11月在《财富》杂志上发表的那篇非常有先见之明的文章写一篇续篇,其中你谈到了17年的瘦年和肥年,你会写些什么?既然我们已经处于第三个17年期的中间,根据你1999年的预期,现在情况如何?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。17年,我当然玩了个小把戏,因为事实上有两个17年期,而且还有17年的蝉。所以从文学角度我稍微发挥了一下。但时间跨度本身并没有什么神奇之处。那34年的前17年和后17年之间有着巨大的差异,我用它来制造一种戏剧性的对比。如果我現在要写点什么,我会说就像我刚刚回答Frank Martin问题时说的那样,如果必须在长期债券或长期股权中选择,我更愿意持有股权。但我对它们的期望不会很高,不过我的期望会超过4.75%。具体高多少,我不确定,但肯定足够超过4.75%,以至于我更愿意持有股票而不是债券。在1999年,我并不觉得——我觉得当时人们是在外推过去17年的经验,并认为持有股票有什么神奇之处。

而人们的预期必然——他们必然会失望。他们只是通过外推得出了一个不切实际的看法,那正是那篇文章的主要目的。但如果我现在要写点什么,我不会对股票抱有很高的期望,但我会对股票比对债券有更好的预期。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。我要说的是,自从那篇文章发表以来,持有股票的结果相当微薄,至少与之前辉煌的17年相比是这样。所以沃伦到目前为止是对的,他现在说预期适度,很可能也是对的。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。在市场上,你真的不可能每天、每周或每月都说出什么非常重要或明智的话。这是问题之一——如果你经常上电视或者必须写每周信函之类的话。偶尔你会遇到极端情况。我的意思是,1969年我确实关闭了合伙公司,然后有篇文章出现了。1974年我做了一次访谈。81年或82年我又做了一次。我是说,偶尔,事情会变得非常离谱。但中间的渐变阶段,那太难了。但好处在于,你不必每天、每周或每月都有观点。如果你拥有一些好企业,并且以合适的价格买下它们,如果它们涨到一个愚蠢的价格,你可能应该卖掉它们。如果你发现一切东西都极其便宜,就像1974年那样,你应该把每一分可用的钱都投进股市。这就是我们一直努力在做的。

9. PacifiCorp与克拉马斯水坝争议

沃伦·巴菲特:第五个问题。

参会者:谢谢。感谢你们给我这个机会提问。我是Ronnie Pellagreen(音译),这是我14岁的女儿Mikayla(音译)。我们代表西海岸数百名商业延绳钓鲑鱼渔民及其家庭。由于克拉马斯河危机,他们勉强维持生计。我丈夫是来自加州尤里卡的第四代商业延绳钓渔民。他的家族捕鱼已有100年历史。去年,由于克拉马斯河的危机,我们的商业鲑鱼季节完全关闭了。这是因为你们的子公司PacifiCorp拥有的四座下游水电站造成的。我们个人收入减少了95%——不好意思——我们无法弥补那笔损失。我们用完了积蓄,并被迫申请了小企业管理局的灾难贷款来满足财务需求。我们的女儿们在去年圣诞节无意中听到我和丈夫的谈话后非常难过,她们来找我们,想把银行账户里所有的钱都给我们。

我告诉你们这些,先生们和股东们,是因为你们和股东们可以帮忙。根据克拉马斯水坝的重新许可,研究表明,拆除这些水坝对PacifiCorp和MidAmerican具有经济意义。你是一位伟大的商人,建立了一个令人难以置信的帝国。我们非常需要你的创造力和专业知识来解决这场危机,以便沿河的印第安人以及我们沿海社区的人们能够继续我们悠久而自豪的传统。家里的人们急切地等着我带回你们的回应。我的问题是,我能告诉他们,你们对拆除过时的克拉马斯水坝持什么立场?

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们的立场非常简单。FERC和几个监管委员会面前有27个不同利益集团提出的方案或立场。一些人想要——一些人喜欢水电,因为它不会产生燃煤或燃气发电的排放。一些人喜欢水电更便宜,惠及几十万消费者。一些人在你所描述的鱼类问题上受到了伤害。这是一个公共政策问题,不会由PacifiCorp决定,而是由FERC决定,因为他们代表公众。事实上,内政部长已告知FERC,这是一个非常棘手的问题。FERC将举行听证会。他们会听取各方立场。俄勒冈州、犹他州、加利福尼亚州(可能)的公共事业委员会也会听取各方论点。最终,我们是一家对公共政策作出回应的公共事业公司。公共政策会权衡你的利益和其他相关方的利益,最终做出决定,而PacifiCorp将完全按照他们的要求去做。

我们对监管我们的机构负责,就像自1906年第一座水坝建成以来那些处于同样位置的人一样。所以这完全是FERC和各州委员会的问题。

10. 对纽交所与泛欧交易所合并无意见

沃伦·巴菲特:第六个问题。

参会者:下午好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。谢谢你们回答我的问题。这是我第二次参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东大会。我叫Cameron Sparrow(音译),13岁,来自科罗拉多州博尔德。我的问题是给巴菲特先生的。巴菲特先生,您对纽约证券交易所与泛欧交易所的合并有何看法?您认为这次合并会对市场产生积极还是消极影响?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我真的不知道答案。我猜——我的意思是,这两家机构之前都是非常大的机构,作为投资者,我们会从价差缩小、执行成本等方面来判断积极影响。这两个地方过去一直非常高效。我的意思是,我们支付的费用相当低。尽管我的经纪人在这里,我们可能应该付得更少。但纽约证券交易所在成本方面已变得高效得多,从30年前或70年代初固定佣金时代之前相比。成本只是很小一部分。从我们的角度来看,真正的考验是,我们是否能得到更好的执行和更低的执行成本。像我说过的,这两家机构之前都是庞大而高效的机构。如果它们变得更高效一点,我希望这能传递给客户,但也可能只导致利润增加。但我们对纽约证券交易所的运作相当满意——实际上是非常满意——我们大部分业务都在那里进行。

但我们也在进行国际股票交易,在全球范围内通常都能得到良好的执行。所以这对我来说既不是担忧也不是兴奋的来源。查理?

查理·芒格:我对此一无所知。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:我也不知道,但我花了更长时间才这么说。(笑声)

11. 当有人说“这太容易了”时要警惕

沃伦·巴菲特:请第七个问题。

参会者:巴菲特先生、芒格先生,谢谢你们举办这次精彩的会议。我叫Chander Chavla(音译),从华盛顿州西雅图市来。我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦可以为减少全球变暖做出贡献,如果明年的股东大会上,盖茨先生和我能坐同一架飞机的话。(笑声)我的问题是,我在生意上犯过几个错误,因为信任了不该信任的人。所以——我不知道如何学会信任正确的人。商学院不教这个,而在企业界那些本该教你的人有时会背叛你。那么,我该如何学会信任谁和不信任谁呢?

沃伦·巴菲特:天哪,这真是个绝妙的问题。但你从我这里得到好答案的机会,可能跟你明年搭上比尔·盖茨的飞机的机会差不多。(笑声)我经常收到来信,听到有人在金融交易中上当受骗。你知道,这真的很可悲。而且很多甚至不是欺诈之类的事情。首先,仅仅是涉及的费用、摩擦成本和那些胡扯就够受的了。查理和我在收购企业和信任他人方面运气非常好。运气好得惊人。但我们筛选掉了很多人。然后你会问,“那你怎么筛选他们?”我会说——我想查理会同意这一点——人们经常不自觉地暴露自己。也许是因为我们年纪大了,见多了他们暴露自己的各种方式。

当他们——当有人带着一个企业来找我——我可能不应该公开说这个,因为他们以后可能会调整他们的方法——但当他们来的时候,仅仅是他们谈论的事情,他们认为重要的和不重要的,就有很多线索指向他们后续的行为。就像我说的,我们在合作过的人身上的成功率,是我以前没想到的。但它不是百分之百。它远高于90%。我经常被问到,“你怎么做出那些判断?”我不知道。查理,你能说说我们是怎么做的吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,部分原因是我们对好得令人难以置信的提议深感怀疑。沃伦曾经向我介绍过一位先生,他想诱骗我们参与一个保险项目。他说,“我们只承保有水覆盖的混凝土桥梁的火险。”他说,“这就像从婴儿手里拿糖果一样。”我们能够筛选掉这样的提议。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。任何人,如果他的话里暗示着,或者他们开玩笑时提到什么的——你知道,这太容易了——但实际上没那么容易,我们就会很快产生怀疑。事实是,我们拒绝了90%的情况。我们可能错误地拒绝了不少。重要的是,我们接纳的那些是否正确。所以我们不介意——我们在寻找那些显而易见值得信任的人。我的意思是,再回到1969年。当我考虑把我的合伙人交给谁时,有各种各样业绩出色的人。那是对冲基金——那是对冲基金的第一个黄金时代。还有关于它的书出版,比如《华尔街的新一代》之类的。你可以去查查。几十个业绩良好的基金管理者。

当我坐下来思考,我要写信给我的合伙人,告诉他们把钱交给谁——因为他们大多数把百分之百或接近百分之百的钱都放在我这里——你知道,查理、桑迪、比尔·鲁恩。我无法告诉你这三个人中谁会做得最好。而且,我也不能告诉你这三个人会比别人可能选出的其他五个人做得更好。但我唯一确定的是,他们会是出色的资金管理人。他们会更关心那些人——那些被托付给他们的人——以尽可能获得最好的结果,而不是关心他们今年能赚X还是2X的佣金或费用什么的。任何时候,如果我找到一个我认为费用结构不公平的人,并且说,“嗯,我能搞定,”你知道,我就会把他们排除掉。我可能排除掉了一些不该排除的人。但对于那些留下的人,我感觉非常好。

我希望我能给你比这更好的建议,但这就是我所做的。

12. 关注机会成本

沃伦·巴菲特:第八个问题。

参会者:是的。巴菲特先生、芒格先生,再次感谢你们每年如此慷慨地与我们共度时光。我想跟进一下来自澳大利亚和慕尼黑的先生们关于估值的问题。那位澳大利亚先生问到了安全边际,你们回答说一个优秀的企业可能不需要那么大的安全边际。我的后续问题是,这是否意味着未来优秀企业的市场回报率?至于慕尼黑先生关于估值的问题,你们举了一个农场的折现现金流例子,我很好奇你们是如何得出折现率的,以及你们如何根据不同的企业调整那个折现率。你们也许可以讨论一下用于可口可乐、强生或一些过去投资的折现率。谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我们没有正式的折现率。我的意思是,每次我开始谈论这些东西时,查理都会提醒我,我从未准备过电子表格。但实际上,在我脑子里我是有的。但显然,我们希望获得显著更高的回报——相对于我们目前为企业投入的资金所产生的现金——比政府债券高。我的意思是,你必须以这个为基本衡量标准。那么我们希望高出多少?如果政府债券利率是2%,我们不会去买一个预期未来多年只赚3%或3.5%的企业。我们就是不想那样投入资金。我们宁愿坐等一会儿。如果利率是4.75%,我们长期希望得到多少?嗯,我们希望得到比那多相当多的回报。

但我不能告诉你,我们每天早晨坐下来,我打电话给洛杉矶的查理说,“我们今天的门槛率是多少?”我们从未用过这个词。这有点像——我们希望足够多,这样即使股市关闭几年,利率再上升100个基点或200个基点,我们仍然对我们买的东西感到满意。除此之外,我真的——听起来有点模糊,但它确实是模糊的。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。门槛率的概念本身完全合理,但很多可怕的错误正是那些谈论门槛率的人犯下的。仅仅因为你能测量和猜测某个东西,并不意味着它就是你在混乱世界中要处理的控制变量。我认为,没有其他方法可以替代思考一大堆投资选择,并思考为什么一个比另一个好,每个可能的回报是多少,等等。门槛率概念的问题——不是说我们没有,在某种意义上——在于它不如比较系统有效。换句话说,如果我有一个机会,我认为它能确定带来8%的回报,而且我可以想买多少就买多少,而你有一个我认为能赚7%的完美投资,我根本不需要在你身上浪费五分钟。你就像邮购服务,邮寄一个新娘,但她有艾滋病。

你知道,我可以转到别的主题了。所以这个——机会成本的概念——在投资教育中教授得太少了。所有主要大学的经济学入门课程都教它,但到了公司金融系等等,它不适合他们想用的数学,所以他们忽略了它。但在现实世界中,你的机会成本是你做出决策的基础。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。即使你有一些非常熟悉且非常有把握的8%回报的投资,如果有人给你一个8.5%的,实际上你也不会心动。

查理·芒格:当然。

沃伦·巴菲特:就像我提到的,我曾在19家公司的董事会任职。我想说,在我看过的所有演示中——我看过很多——每一个都有内部回报率的计算,但如果他们把这些计算都烧掉,董事会的情况会更好。我的意思是,有太多胡说八道的东西被呈现出来了,因为演示者基本上知道听众想听什么,以及需要什么才能通过CEO无论如何都想做的事情——你得到的就是一堆胡编的数字。而且,也许我们也会得到胡编的数字,但那是我们自己的——(笑)

查理·芒格:让我给你举个例子。我有一个年轻的朋友,他向投资者出售私人合伙权益。他所在的领域非常艰难,很难获得像样的回报。我问他,“你告诉他们你的目标回报率是多少?”他说,“20%”。我问,“你怎么选这个数字的?”他说,“如果我选更低的数字,他们不会给我钱。”(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:世界上没有人能用大笔资金赚到20%。我的意思是,这根本不可能。所以任何做出这样承诺的人,我们基本上会立刻把他排除掉。令我惊讶的是,大型投资者,养老基金等等,是多么容易被忽悠,他们竟然会让一些人跑来向他们承诺圣杯。他们太想要了,以至于愿意相信那些必然是胡说八道的东西。

13. 有些问题太重要,不能简单地归为“太难”

沃伦·巴菲特:我们来看第九个问题。

参会者:下午好,巴菲特先生、芒格先生。我叫Robert Piton(音译),来自伊利诺伊州芝加哥。在你们的职业生涯中,有没有什么问题,无论是个人还是职业方面,你们无法得到一个满意的答案,以至于不能简单地把它放进“太难”的堆里?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:查理?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然有。你会遇到——

沃伦·巴菲特:你可能刚刚问了一个。(笑声)

查理·芒格:当然。如果你的孩子死于某种可怕的疾病,你就有一个不能简单地放进“太难”堆里的问题。所以生活中有很多事情会来找你,你没有选择不去考虑这个问题。但如果它是可选择的,比如从众多投资中选择一个,那么“太难”堆就是一个筛选日常工作的绝妙方法。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我桌上有一个文件夹——是劳拉·格雷厄姆给我的——上面写着“太难”。正如查理所说,如果某件事是可选择的,而且太难,你就把它扔进去。如果你面对的是大规模杀伤性武器的问题,它太难了,但你必须不断地与之斗争。因为即使你把概率降低一点点,你也在做有意义的事。但你永远无法解决它。你只能继续努力解决某些类型的问题,并希望你不要遇到太多类似的问题。

14. 我们一直在思考

沃伦·巴菲特:第十个问题。

参会者:来自德国致以诚挚问候。我是Bernard Yaadan(音译),来自(听不清楚)一个小镇,靠近黑森林,我是该镇的镇长。我的问题是问巴菲特先生和芒格先生的,你们多久审视一次投资组合中的每个头寸?有些人每天看股票,甚至更频繁,有些人一年只看一次。你们的频率是多少?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这大体上可以分为我生命中的两个时期。当我想法比钱多的时候,我一直在思考每一个,因为我总在考虑买下一个,以及为了买一个更有吸引力的,我必须卖掉哪一个。所以,用查理的话说,我的机会成本就是我最不喜欢的那个股票,我会为了买一个更有吸引力的而放弃它。所以,实际上,如果我有10万美元,全部投资了,而我想再投入1万或2万美元到我感觉更有吸引力的东西上,我会一直在想,该卖掉哪一个。现在我们的情况是,我们的钱比想法多,这意味着我们真的不会每分钟都在重新审视某件事,因为选项是现金,而不是做我们真正兴奋的事情。我们仍然在思考我们拥有的企业——无论是全资拥有的还是通过股票部分拥有的——我们一直在思考它们。我们脑子里储存了很多信息。

你会不断获得关于那家公司、竞争对手或其他事情的零星增量信息。所以这是一个持续的过程,但它不是一个会导向每天、每周或每月行动的过程。我们只是想要不断补充我们的思考和知识,进一步深化对我们所参与每个企业的理解。如果我们为了一个非常大的交易需要资金,比如说我们需要200亿、300亿或400亿美元,并且必须决定卖出100亿的股票,只是随便说个数字,你知道,我们会使用我们每天收集的信息,这些信息在平时可能没什么太大意义,然后我们会做出决定,从哪里筹集这100亿美元。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。但即使在沃伦的辉煌时期,当他想法远多于钱的时候,他也没有花很多时间思考他的首选。你知道,他可以把那放一边,把精力投入到其他主题上。

15. 买入数十亿美元的股票很难

沃伦·巴菲特:第十一个问题。

参会者:下午好。来自纽约的Charles Fisher(音译)。在过去18个月里,公司已向四五家上市公司配置了至少10亿美元。伯克希尔资本充裕,但想法稀缺。既然这些股票投资都是在大型公司中进行的,我们本可能投入50亿美元,你们是否考虑过对每只股票投资配置更多资本?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,我们显然考虑过这一点。有些股票我们已增加了数十亿美元的投资,而我们在两年前已经持有相当大的头寸。显然,当我们向现有列表增加投资时,我们认为我们在增加那些要么看起来对我们最有吸引力,要么我们能够买入的股票。我是说,有些东西我们无法投入那么多钱,或者会遭遇报告门槛,从而引起问题。如果我们持有一家公司超过10%的股份,那么在六个月内,我们一股也不能卖,否则如果有利润,会根据短线交易规则被追回。所以在是否跨越某些持股规模门槛上有一些技术性问题。但如果你看看——如果你看看2007年底的投资组合,你会发现2006年的某些头寸可能会增加数十亿美元。

这始终是我和查理在考虑的事情。我们喜欢增加现有头寸。我的意思是,那些公司我们了解、理解,显然在某种程度上喜欢。如果价格变得合理且有吸引力,我们有资金在手,我们就会增加。如果我们能找到一家好企业来买,我们会卖掉最不有吸引力的。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。买入这些大额头寸并不像看起来那么容易。我们买可口可乐的时候,是尽可能多地买入每一股。我们买了,怎么说,每天交易量的30%还是40%?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

查理·芒格:花了很长时间才建好仓位。所以管理巨大的普通股投资组合存在巨大困难。我们更喜欢现在有这些问题的感觉,而不是早期没有它们的时候,但这确实让事情变得困难得多。我们没有简单的方法来推动这些大象。

沃伦·巴菲特:总的来说,我们认为我们通常可以买入大约20%的日交易量,同时感觉我们没有让价格与我们不参与市场时发生剧烈变化。这意味着,如果我们想买价值50亿美元的东西,就必须有250亿美元的交易量,这对许多股票来说是非常大的。所以我们是一艘大油轮,与一艘小船相比,这有它的劣势。

16. 巴菲特回应克拉马斯水坝的担忧

沃伦·巴菲特:第十二个问题?

参会者:你好,hamalio(音)。我叫Wendy George,来自北加利福尼亚的Hoopa印第安人保留地。我和Yurok和Karuk原住民一起来,他们生活在——

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道麦克风是否正常工作,但我们要确保它正常工作。

参会者:——他们生活在克拉马斯河沿岸。我的人民是河民族。我们整个文化、宗教和生计都以河流为中心。你们的子公司PacifiCorp拥有我们河上的水坝。巴菲特先生,我知道你非常关心人性和道德商业。我们也理解你无法直接控制PacifiCorp的运营。然而,你们可以做些事情来帮助我们。所以我们来这里是想问,你是否愿意与部落代表会面,更多地了解我们的问题,并探讨拯救我们鲑鱼的方法?

沃伦·巴菲特:你说完了吗?别着急,慢慢来。

参会者:说完了。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。正如我之前所说,我们最终不会做出决定。决定将由FERC做出。这就像我们要建一个燃煤发电厂、燃气发电厂或更多风力发电一样。例如,我们在爱荷华州投入了大量风电,但那基本上是由爱荷华州的公用事业委员会决定的,他们想做出那个决定。顺便说一句,有时人们因为我们建风电场而不高兴,因为他们不想要相关的输电线路。他们通常很乐意给我们建风力涡轮机的场地,因为他们因此得到很好的报酬,但他们不喜欢输电线路。任何时候涉足公用事业领域,总有人对决定高兴,也有人不高兴。没人希望发电厂建在他们附近,这就是它的本质。世界需要电力。因为它需要电力,而且需要更多电力,所以本质上必须通过监管机构来决定公共政策问题。

而我们将完全按照FERC最终的决定——并得到各州委员会的同意——去做。所有的论点都会提交给他们。正如我所说,有27个团体,我相信。然后他们去听取内政部长和许多其他团体的意见。不知怎么地,他们会就公共政策做出一个决定,我们会遵循它。这也会花很多时间,我必须说。任何时候,当你有一个问题有27种不同观点和不止一个权威机构时,这都会需要大量时间。我在这件事上处于一个特殊位置。因为当我们收购PacifiCorp时,我们不得不——Walter Scott和我都签署了宣誓书。作为收购PacifiCorp的一部分,俄勒冈州公共事业委员会要求我们提交这些宣誓书。我现在读给你们听。我不想让你们觉得我在躲避,但这是几年前签署的。

上面写着:“我同意我不会直接或间接对与PacifiCorp相关的事务行使任何控制权,除非是与PacifiCorp相关的行政性事务。”然后,“我同意,作为MidAmerican Holding Company和伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事,我将避免在涉及PacifiCorp活动或运营的中美控股公司或伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事会事项上进行投票。”这是允许MidAmerican收购PacifiCorp的命令的一部分。我还必须说,在俄勒冈委员会和其他五个州看来,我们的申请几乎是创纪录地快速通过的,因为MidAmerican在响应其运营所在的公共事业委员会方面记录良好,我们将继续保持响应。

沃伦·巴菲特:但我理解你的观点。谢谢。

17. 佛罗里达州的公共部门飓风保险

沃伦·巴菲特:第十三个问题,请。

参会者:Peter Vanden Broeck(音译),俄亥俄州克利夫兰。巴菲特先生和芒格先生,感谢你们如此雄辩地回答了一些棘手的问题。我知道没有其他上市公司会允许这样的论坛。你们做得非常棒。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。

参会者:我的问题是关于卡特里娜飓风后续情况的一个跟进问题,涉及保单持有人与保险公司之间的纠纷,以及风暴后受灾者应得的适当补救措施。这场纠纷的一部分或结果之一是佛罗里达州通过了一些立法。能否请您根据您的理解,向股东解释一下这项立法?它对比克希尔旗下的保险子公司有何影响(如果有的话)?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我无法精确地告诉你佛罗里达州——我不知道Joe Brandon、Ajit [Jain] 或 Tad Montross——如果他们都在管理层团队中,能不能把麦克风递给他们。基本上——我应该让他们解释一下——但佛罗里达州比之前更多地涉足了为公民提供保险的业务,但也有一些显著的限制。我想,如果我们能把麦克风递给他们三个中的一位,他们能比我回答得更好。我们那边有人吗?他们都出去写保单了,还是——?(笑声)

查理·芒格:更可能是在买珠宝。(笑声)

声音:测试,一、二。

沃伦·巴菲特:我们那有谁?灯光太亮我看不到那边。

声音:我拿麦克风。

沃伦·巴菲特:他们在喊什么?

查理·芒格:七。

乔·布兰登:喂。

沃伦·巴菲特:啊。

乔·布兰登:沃伦,我是乔。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。

乔·布兰登:花了一点时间才过来。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,很好。

乔·布兰登:我在找Ajit。具体的问题是什么?

沃伦·巴菲特:我想提问者想知道过去三四个月佛罗里达州到底发生了什么,州政府是如何介入房主保险业务的。

乔·布兰登:嗯,在一月中旬,佛罗里达州立法机构召开了特别会议,在州长的敦促下通过了立法,扩大了再保险基金,并最终将大量风险,包括个人险和商业险,从私人市场转移到公共市场。你知道,这将导致,并且已经表现为,佛罗里达州风灾风险的保费降低,并释放了原本用于佛罗里达市场的承保能力,用于其他市场。所以最终它会对保险业产生压制效应。长期来看,没有免费的午餐,州政府和佛罗里达州公民承担了巨大的风险。如果不刮风,一切都会平安无事,但赔率是最终会刮风,而佛罗里达州将面临一个巨大的公共政策问题。

沃伦·巴菲特:他们——乔,他们是不是明确承担了大约300亿,然后把超过那个的部分留给上天决定?我自己不太确定,但——

乔·布兰登:是的。我相信他们承担了大约300亿。大约是——增加额是120亿到160亿。所以他们之前已经承担了大约180亿,现在又增加了120到160亿。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。真正的问题在于,如果出现一个1000亿美元的保险损失。那时,州政府可能决定发行600或700亿美元的债券。他们可能决定去找联邦政府说,“这真的不是我们的错,所以整个国家应该以某种形式来承担。”谁知道会发生什么?事实是,出现1000亿美元风暴的可能性非常小。最大的一次是安德鲁飓风,按今天的通胀折算,大概刚好不到300亿。但如果同样的风暴以五级强度在它原本登陆点以北约20英里处登陆,你可能会——或者很容易出现像1000亿美元的风暴。所以,你得持续关注。如果未来几年没有飓风,整个事情就会平息——大的飓风。

如果出现一个1000亿美元的风暴,他们可能会去华盛顿,我们会知道是整个国家在为佛罗里达的飓风保险,还是联邦政府会把问题踢回给佛罗里达州,而佛罗里达州大概会发行大量债券,增加税收。实际上,你会根据人们在像佛罗里达这样的州缴纳的一般税收收入的比例来分配保险损失。在多风的地方生活很艰难,但显然,那又是一个非常宜居的地方。所以我们会看到事情如何发展。

18. “与比你优秀的人为伍”

沃伦·巴菲特:第十四个问题,请。

参会者:Steve Rosenberg(音译),原籍密歇根州。非常感谢你们继续作为杰出的榜样,并持续通过以身作则来教导价值观。我很好奇,你们现在的榜样是谁?我知道你们之前的英雄包括你们的父亲、本·格雷厄姆和戴维(前GEICO CEO Lorimer Davidson),但我想知道除了那三位之外还有谁。谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我有过一些。我不确定是否想点名,因为没被点到的可能会觉得有点被冷落。但我很幸运的一点是,那些我仰慕的人从未让我失望。所以我从未有过那种经历,就是你非常崇拜一个人,然后那个人在某种程度上让你失望了,那将是一次糟糕的经历,很难释怀。而且,你知道,我相信有些人在婚姻中经历过,在生意中也经历过。最糟糕的情况当然是发生在你父母身上,但对我来说没有发生。实际上,对我来说情况正好相反。所以我只能告诉你,选择你的英雄非常重要。学生们来的时候,我告诉他们这一点。因为你会被身边人的行为所吸引。我告诉人们一定要与比你优秀的人为伍。向上婚配,希望你能找到一个不介意下嫁的人。

(笑声)这会对你有奇效。对我来说,这是巨大的帮助。我可以告诉你。查理?

查理·芒格:是的。我想说,当你挑选导师时,你不必局限于活着的人。有些最好的人已经去世了。(笑声和掌声)

19. “我把简历丝印在衬衫上了”

沃伦·巴菲特:好了,我们最好去第一个问题。(笑声)

参会者:大家好。我叫Kendall Brubaker(音译)。我是印第安纳州西拉法叶普渡大学的大四学生。我把简历丝印在衬衫上了。查理和沃伦,我给你们每人带了一件衬衫,还有一件给(听不清楚)先生,他是我今天出现在这里的原因。此外,我对社会创业和盖茨基金会有着浓厚的兴趣,也很乐意给比尔一件衬衫,如果他愿意接受的话。现在,我原本有一个关于历史经济增长率以及为什么是3%而不是2%或5%的过于技术性的问题。然而,鉴于我的情况,我觉得更合适的问题是,我来到这里向你们展示我自己的内在价值,并拒绝了一个人刚才出价500美元买我排到27,000人队伍中的位置来向你们学习,这个经济决策是否明智?还是说我用美国运通卡买等值的See’s Candy和可口可乐会更好?谢谢。再次,我叫Kendall Brubaker。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。我以为你的问题会是关于我们穿什么尺码的衬衫,但——(笑声)

查理·芒格:我穿小号。(笑声)

20. 芒格:用玉米开车是“愚蠢”

沃伦·巴菲特:我想我们继续第二个问题。(笑声)

参会者:Tom Nelson(音译),明尼苏达州北奥克斯。这个问题是给查理的。你目前对本国乙醇生产的成本和收益有何看法?

查理·芒格:嗯,你知道,就连 [参议员约翰] 麦凯恩最近也来了个反悔。他决定乙醇是美妙的,因为他意识到这就是爱荷华州的想法。我在这里有点类似他的处境,但我不会让这阻止我。(笑声)我认为用玉米来驱动汽车是——(掌声)——我见过的最愚蠢的想法之一,而且它竟然获得了广泛接受。但在充满政治压力的政府中,会做出奇怪的决定。但这一定是曾经做出的最疯狂的决定之一。你想为人民提供社会安全网,而最基本的安全网就是食物。然而你将要提高食物的成本,就为了让这些汽车跑起来?而且制造玉米所消耗的碳氢化合物,几乎和你从乙醇中获得的差不多。我要说的是——而且你没有计算乙醇成本中,那永远流失表土的成本——这——我爱内布拉斯加州。

我骨子里是个内布拉斯加人。但这并非我家乡州最辉煌的时刻。

沃伦·巴菲特:我们今晚要设法把他偷偷送出城。(笑声)

21. 可购买《超级金钱》一书

沃伦·巴菲特:我应该做个公告。外面Bookworm书店的书,我很久以前的朋友Jerry Goodman多年前写了一本书叫《超级金钱》,他刚刚推出了新版。他们实际上把它空运来了。今天早上大概9点或10点——10点或11点——它们到达了礼堂。现在新版修订的《超级金钱》已经在那里了,除了其他书目之外。如果他们费了那么多周折,我不提一下,我会觉得失职。这是一本非常好的书。Jerry是一位伟大的作家。他写了《金钱游戏》,那是一本经典之作。《超级金钱》也是一本好书。

22. 对冲通胀的最佳方式

沃伦·巴菲特:我们来看第三个问题。

参会者:下午好,先生们。我是Paul Wigdor(音译),来自新泽西州蒙特克莱尔。你们在做什么来保护我们公司的投资组合免受通胀风险的影响?具体来说,你们是否在考虑进一步投资货币和金属?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我们不一定认为金属投资是对冲通胀的任何保护。但我们——对冲通胀的最佳方式是你自己的赚钱能力。我的意思是,一个顶级的外科医生、律师、教师、销售人员或任何其他人,无论货币是贝壳、纸币还是其他什么,在调动他人资源方面都会过得不错。所以你自己的赚钱能力是你最好的——是对冲通胀的最佳方式。次佳方式是拥有一家出色的企业,不一定是金属企业,不一定是原材料企业,不一定是矿业企业,而是一家出色的企业。事实是,如果你拥有可口可乐,如果你拥有士力架,如果你拥有好时巧克力棒,如果你拥有任何人们愿意从他们当前收入中拿出一部分来持续获得的东西,并且它不需要太多的资本投入,这样你就不必为了满足通胀需求而不断投入巨额资金,那可能就是你在通胀世界中能拥有的最佳投资。

但通胀对投资者来说几乎在任何情况下都是坏消息。你可以争辩说,如果你拥有一家只需要很少资本投入,并且在通胀时期具有实际定价灵活性的企业,以至于人们会继续每月花半小时的工作来购买你的产品,并且你利用了杠杆,那么你甚至可能在某种程度上跑赢通胀。但杠杆不是我们的游戏,我们努力拥有好企业。我认为,在高通胀时期,伯克希尔的真实表现不会像在低通胀时期那么好,但我想我们会比许多公司表现得好。查理?

查理·芒格:我没什么要补充的了。

23. 铁路业务好转,但不会“令人振奋”

沃伦·巴菲特:第四个问题。

参会者:您好,沃伦和查理。我叫Felton Jenkins。我来自佐治亚州萨凡纳。我是多年的股东了。这是我第三次参加年会。谢谢你们,谢谢你们的管理者和所有员工,你们做得非常出色。简短地跟进一件事。《华盛顿邮报》、《洛杉矶时报》等多个媒体报道,FERC、加州监管委员会、内政部已决定,拆除水坝并寻找替代电力比进行资本改造要节省1亿到2亿美元。不过,我的问题是,您对铁路行业未来盈利能力的看法是什么?与历史相比,未来什么可能会让它更令人兴奋?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。谢谢。我认为它不会变得更令人兴奋。但铁路的相对竞争优势比20或25年前有所改善,当时它们的竞争地位并不太好。在劳动力方面取得了很大进展。随着油价上涨,它们相对于卡车运输的竞争地位得到了提升。更高的柴油价格显然会提高铁路的成本,但对其竞争对手卡车运输的成本提高幅度大概是它们所受影响的近四倍。而且铁路行业并没有创造很多新运力。所以30年前这是一个糟糕的行业,它在监管下运营——现在它仍然在重新监管的威胁下运营,这抑制了它们的定价能力——但现在它是一个更好的业务。它永远不会成为一个令人振奋的业务。这是一个资本密集型业务。当你每年投入大量资本时,很难获得真正非凡的资本回报。

但如果它们能获得体面的资本回报,随着时间的推移,它可以成为一个好业务,并且可以比过去好得多。查理?

查理·芒格:我对此也没什么要补充的。

24. 10岁孩子赚钱的最佳方式

沃伦·巴菲特:第五个问题。

参会者:您好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫Marie Blevins,来自肯塔基州巴兹敦。这是我第一次参加股东大会。我的问题是,你们认为10岁的孩子赚钱的最佳方式是什么?(笑声和掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我必须说,我10岁的时候花了很多心思在这个问题上——(笑)——比我在学校和其他一些事情上花的心思还多。你知道,你必须——送报纸你可能还小了点。那一直是我最喜欢的。我创业时大约一半的资本是通过送报纸赚来的,我一直很喜欢它,因为我可以自己干。我不知道你所在的小镇情况如何,但像我说过的,10岁可能小了点,但12或13岁就不小了。几乎任何——我尝试过——高中毕业前我肯定试过20种不同的生意。最好的是弹球机生意,但我不确定是否推荐你进入那个。当我在做的时候,那是一个纯粹得多的业务,你投一个五分镍币,然后就那样了。

但有趣的是——我很久以前读过一项研究——我真希望能找到它,因为我经常引用它,但我引用时从没有像如果我能找到30年前读到的那个该死的东西那样有权威。但它将商业成功与某些变量关联起来。他们试了学校的成绩,试了你父母做什么,试了你是否上过商学院,所有这些。他们发现它与第一次创业的年龄相关性最好,越早开始第一次商业活动,似乎与后来的商业成功相关性最好。在某种程度上,这很自然。当你在体育、音乐等方面看到时,可能也是如此。

2007年股东大会

第五部分/第六部分

所以,只要你能想出别人愿意付钱让你做的事情——那些他们自己不想做或希望别人替他们做的事——我建议你在周围看看,和你的父母聊聊,和你的朋友聊聊,看看其他10岁、11岁或12岁的孩子做过什么有效的事情,然后照着做。但如果你在12岁或13岁时能拿到一份好的送报纸工作,那绝对是存钱的好办法。我经常在想,那些负债累累、做着正常八小时工作的人。如果他们在早上多加一条送报路线,然后把那部分钱存起来,你知道,这可能是摆脱困境、领先一步的方法——每天多花一个半小时,但似乎没多少人愿意这么做。查理以前卖过——你不是把自己一天中最好的时光卖给自己了吗,查理?

原文

So whatever you can figure out that other people will pay you to do that they don’t want to do themselves or that they’d like done for them — I advise you to look around the neighborhood and talk to your parents, talk to your friends, see what other people have done that have been 10 or 11 or 12 years old that’s worked for them and copy it. But if you can get a good paper route when you’re 12 or 13, that’s a sure way to save some money. I’ve often wondered about people that are having trouble being in debt, you know, that have a normal eight-hour job. If they added a route in the morning and just put that aside, you know, it could be the way out of being behind the game instead of being — and getting ahead of the game — and take another hour and a half out of their day, but not too many people seem to do it. Charlie used to sell — didn’t you used to sell yourself the best hour of the day or something, Charlie?

查理·芒格:当然。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: You bet.

沃伦·巴菲特:没错。告诉他们你做了什么。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Tell them what you did.

查理·芒格:嗯,我年轻的时候,读过一本储蓄银行的小册子《巴比伦最富有的人》,它教会了人们量入为出、把差额用于投资的好处,以及随着时间的推移这会产生多么美妙的效果。果然,我完全按照这本小册子的建议做了,结果奏效了。另一个想法——于是我有了这样的想法——我也有一个复利思维。所以我最终决定,要把一天中最好的时光用来提升自己的头脑,然后让这个世界买下剩下的时间。这可能是一件非常自私的事情,但它确实奏效了。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, when I was young, I read that savings bank thing, “The Richest Man in Babylon,” which taught the joys of underspending your income and investing the difference and how wonderfully it would work over time. And, lo and behold, I did exactly what this little pamphlet suggested, and it worked. And the other idea — and then so I got the idea that — I had a mental compound interest thing, too. And so I finally decided I was going to give the best hour of the day to improving my own mind, and then the world could buy the rest of the time. And that may have been a very selfish thing to do, but it worked.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。查理是在出售他的时间——我不知道。你当律师时每小时赚多少钱?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Charlie was selling his time — I don’t know. What you were getting per hour as a lawyer?

查理·芒格:不多。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Not much.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。他只是决定把最好的时光卖给自己,这不是什么疯狂的事。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. He just decided to sell himself the best hour, and not a crazy thing to do.

查理·芒格:但我想告诉那个小女孩,如果你让自己成为一个非常可靠的人,并终生保持可靠,忠实地履行你承诺做的一切,那么你很难在任何事情上失败。(掌声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: But I would tell that little girl if you make yourself a very reliable person and stay reliable all your life, faithfully doing whatever you engage to do, it will be very hard for you to fail at anything you want. (Applause)

25. 重要的是全球竞争者,而非全球趋势

原文

沃伦·巴菲特:第六个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 6.

参会者:大家下午好。我叫丹尼斯·巴特罗斯基(Dennis Batrowski)。我来自内布拉斯加州的西点镇,现在和我的家人住在奥马哈。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Dennis Batrowski (PH). My hometown is West Point, Nebraska, and I now live in Omaha with my family.

沃伦·巴菲特:你可能知道,我的母亲也来自西点镇。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: As you may know, my mother came from West Point.

参会者:是的。谢谢你们,沃伦和查理,感谢你们在这次精彩的会议上给予的非凡教育和慷慨。我从1994年起参加了每一次会议。沃伦和查理,假设对未来现金流估算有必要的安全边际,并对贴现率进行适当调整,你们能否讨论一下,你们认为全球经济增长的哪些趋势是可持续的——考虑到我们在铁路、钢铁、材料和能源方面的持股,以及我们适度的预期、巨大的贸易逆差、紧张的信用利差、低风险溢价和新兴经济体的爆炸性增长?谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes. Thank you, Warren and Charlie, for your incredible education, generosity in this great meeting. I’ve attended every meeting since 1994. Warren and Charlie, assuming a necessary margin of safety in the future cash flow estimates and proper adjustments in discount rates, would you discuss which trends of global economic growth that you think will be sustainable, given our holdings in railroads, steel, materials, and energy, with our modest expectations, enormous trade deficit, tight credit spreads, low risk premiums, and explosive growth in emerging economies? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我们认为——我们认为我们目前持有的业务组合对于我们所面对的世界来说是不错的。你知道,我们不知道哪些会被证明是最好的。有一些我们认为是非常优秀的赢家,我们也认为其中相当一部分会表现不错。我们并不会过多地根据世界趋势来购买业务。我们当然会考虑国际——外国竞争。我的意思是,我们不想买入那些劳动力含量非常高、产品很容易从国外运来的业务。因为迟早这会带来麻烦,就像查理和我——实际上,我买入了一家航空公司——他过来试图拯救我——几年前,这家公司的每座位英里成本很高,但有受保护的航线——全美航空——所以它能够以每座位英里12美分的成本运营,因为西南航空还没有以8美分的成本进入。但它们终究会进来。你不想拥有那种竞争地位会随时间逐渐削弱的东西。

但我认为我们的大部分业务都有相当强大的竞争地位。而且,说实话,你提到的那些变量并不会困扰我们。你知道,我们会尽最大努力打好手中的牌,而我们正与非常优秀的人一起在非常好的业务中打牌,我们始终处于强势地位。你知道,我们始终有一把上了膛的枪。而且我们认为我们的价值观是正确的,我们的经理人、我们的员工也是正确的。我们认为我们有一种以所有者为导向的文化。我们有很多有利因素,这些因素不会产生巨大的回报,但它们很可能会表现不错。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We think we’re — we think we’re in a pretty good group of businesses for the world we face. You know, we don’t know which ones will turn out to be the best. There’s a few that we think are real superwinners, and we think a significant number of them will do OK. And we don’t try to buy our businesses with thoughts much of world trends. We certainly think in terms of international — foreign competition. I mean, we do not want to buy into a business that has a very high labor content and that has a product that can be shipped in from abroad very easily. Because, sooner or later, that will probably be trouble, just like Charlie and I — really, I bought into an airline — he came along and tried to rescue me — some years ago that had very high seat mile costs and it had protected routes — US Airways — so it was able to operate with 12 cents a seat mile of cost because Southwest hadn’t gotten there yet with their 8 cent costs. But they get there. And you do not want to have something whose competitive position is going to erode over time.

But I think most of our businesses have got pretty strong competitive positions. And, really, the variables you name don’t bother us. You know, we will play the hand as well as we can, and we’re playing it with terrific people in very good businesses, and we’re dealing from strength all the time. You know, we’ve always got a loaded gun. And we think we’ve got the right values with our managers, the people. Think we’ve got a culture that’s owner-oriented. We’ve got a lot of things going for us, and they won’t produce huge returns, but they’re likely to work OK. Charlie?

查理·芒格:嗯,我们在鞋类业务中学到了关于外国劳动力竞争的教训。这让我想起威尔·罗杰斯,他认为人类不应该以如此艰难的方式学习这些简单的教训。威尔·罗杰斯认为,你应该学会不要在不亲自尝试的情况下就在带电围栏上小便。(笑声)

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, we learned about foreign labor competition in our shoe business. And in that, it reminds me of Will Rogers, who didn’t think man should have to learn these easy lessons in such a hard fashion. Will Rogers believed that you should learn not to pee on an electrified fence without actually trying it. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:威尔告诉查理很多他没有告诉我的事情。(笑声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Will told Charlie a lot of things he didn’t tell me. (Laughter)

26. 货币问题都是相对的

原文

26. It’s all relative with currencies

沃伦·巴菲特:第七个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 7.

参会者:大家好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我是来自佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡的Shinydaz Guynadewa(PH)。首先,我要感谢你们在让投资者意识到多种投资中高昂的交易成本方面所做的努力,我通过阅读你们的文章获益良多。我今天的问题是关于美元相对于所有其他主要货币的贬值问题。在过去三年中,美元贬值高达25%到30%。所以我想了解这将对个人投资者产生什么影响,以及威胁有多大?谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. I’m Shinydaz Guynadewa (PH) from Fort Lauderdale, Florida. First of all, I want to thank you for your efforts in making investors aware of the high transaction cost involved with several investments, and I got lot of personal benefit by reading your articles. My question today is in reference to the declining value of dollars compared to all other major currencies. In last three years, dollar declined as high as 25 to 30 percent. So I want to understand how it is going to impact individual investors and the how big is the threat? Thank you?

沃伦·巴菲特:问题是关于美元贬值,但我没有完全听清楚——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: The question is about the declining dollar but I didn’t get all the —

查理·芒格:他问你——我们对此怎么看,我们打算怎么做。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: He asked you for — what do we think about it, what are we going to do about it.

沃伦·巴菲特:我们认为——我们认为美元随着时间的推移——除非政策发生重大变化——很可能会对大多数主要货币进一步贬值。我们最初通过交易来支持这一观点,这些交易最高时涉及210亿或-20亿美元的外币持有。而持有这些头寸的融资成本——各国利率之间的差异——使得表达这种信念变得相当昂贵。因此,我们更专注于买入那些在其他货币中赚取大量利润的公司,认为它们会比仅赚美元的公司更受青睐。但这并不是——正如我在报告中所提到的——决定我们买入什么的主要因素。它是一个因素,但不是——不是决策的50%或类似比例。我们正在这个国家推行一些政策,这些政策很可能会导致美元相对于许多主要货币贬值。至于速度如何,是今年还是明年发生,谁知道呢。我们对此没有任何概念。但基本的力量相当强大。

实际上,我们现在只持有一笔货币——交易——这可能会让你感到惊讶。我们明年会告诉你。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We think it — we think the dollar over time is — unless policies are changed in a major way — is likely to decline somewhat more against most major currencies. And we originally backed that opinion up with transactions that got as high as 21 or -2 billion in the ownership of foreign currencies. And then the carry on that, the difference between interest rates in the various countries, made that quite an expensive way to express that belief. So we have focused much more on buying into companies that earn lots of money in other currencies, on the thought that they will be somewhat favored over companies earning just U.S. But that’s not — as I mention in the report — that is not a huge determination of what we buy. It’s a factor, but it’s not — it’s not 50 percent of the decision or anything like that. We are following policies in this country that are likely to cause the dollar to decline in value against many major currencies. And who knows what speed, whether it happens this year or next year. We don’t have any idea on that sort of thing. But the fundamental forces are fairly strong.

We actually only own one currency now — trade — which would surprise you, actually. We’ll tell you about it next year. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。到目前为止,发生了一些奇怪的事情。正是在美元相对其他货币最大程度贬值的这段时期,好市多的美元价格显示的通胀因素几乎为零。所以真正重要的当然是事情在你自己的国家里如何运作,而且令人惊讶的是,到目前为止,尽管美元贬值,我们过得还不错。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. So far, something peculiar has happened. During this exact period of maximum dollar decline in value versus other currencies, the dollar prices at Costco have showed an inflation factor of approximately zero. So what really matters, of course, is how things are working in your own country, and it’s been perfectly amazing how well we’ve gotten by so far with the decline of the dollar.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。正如查理所说,你知道,我们一切都是以自己的国家为参照的。如果你看看石油,比如说,过去几年它从大约每桶30美元涨到了每桶60美元,而同一时期欧元从大约83美分涨到了1.35美元。所以对于欧洲人来说,石油价格上涨得很少。我的意思是,我们认为石油已经疯狂上涨了。但对于任何使用欧元的人来说,石油价格上涨了大约25%,而我们感觉上涨了100%。所以你确实会倾向于以自己的货币为锚来思考,这是可以理解的。我确实认为你需要比美国人传统上更深入地思考货币问题。二三十四十年前,当我在其他地方旅行时,我深有感触,欧洲、英国等地的大多数人对货币的认知比美国要成熟得多。我们从来不需要真正考虑这个问题。

一切都是基于美元的,一个美国人不需要在货币方面很聪明,甚至不需要在生意上想太多。但这个世界已经改变了。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. As Charlie says, you know, we reference everything in terms of our own country. If you look at oil, for example, which we’ll say has gone from roughly $30 a barrel to $60 a barrel over the last few years, you know, during that same time the euro has gone from, like, 83 cents to a $1.35. So the price of oil, if you’re a European, has gone up very little. I mean, we think oil has run wild. But in terms of anybody that’s using the euro, the price of oil has gone up about 25 percent, and we feel the price has gone up a hundred percent. So you do have this anchoring of thought to your own currency, which is understandable. I do think you’ll need to think about currency matters more than Americans traditionally have. I was struck 20, 30, 40 years ago, when I would travel elsewhere, how much more sophisticated most people in Europe and the UK, wherever, were about currency than the United States. We never really had to think about it.

Everything was dollar-based, and an American didn’t have to be smart about currency or even think too much about it in terms of their business. But that world has changed.

27. 公司董事没有尽到职责

原文

27. Corporate directors aren’t doing their job

沃伦·巴菲特:第八个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 8.

参会者:来自爱荷华州得梅因的约翰·诺伍德(John Norwood)。一个简短的问题——先简短评论,然后提问。评论是:继查理关于乙醇的评论之后,我请他至少看看乙醇作为燃料混合物的环境效益——作为辛烷值增强剂,它优于其他类型的化学添加剂,比如对地下水造成严重破坏的MTBE。我的问题是给巴菲特先生的。我希望您能多告诉我们一些您与董事会的互动,以及想法和思想交流的类型,或许还能提供一个您认为董事会应该如何与管理层合作的模式。谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: John Norwood from Des Moines, Iowa. A quick question — a quick comment and then a question. The comment, following on Charlie’s comments on ethanol, I would ask him at least to look at the environmental benefits of ethanol as a fuel blend — octane boosters superior to other types of chemical additives, such as MTBE, which has been so damaging to groundwater. My question is for Mr. Buffett. And I’m hoping you might be able to tell us a little bit more about your interactions with the board of directors and the types of ideas and idea exchange and, perhaps, a model for how you believe a board of directors is supposed to function with management. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我认为大多数作家和大多数股东可能对大多数公司——大型公司——多年来如何运作有一点扭曲的看法。通常——很长一段时间以来,我认为董事们通常就像是盆栽植物。我的意思是,你坐在那里,管理层有他们自己的议程,并不真的希望就重大事项获得意见。查利和我可以肯定地证明,即使我们是公司的最大股东,在谈论真正重要的事情方面,我们也非常不成功。我的意思是,如果有人花了一辈子——25年、30年——升至CEO的职位,你知道,他们想当老板,你不能责怪他们,唯一挡在他们面前的就是董事会。所以他们寻找那些有名气的人,寻找让他们开心的方式,但他们并不真的希望他们过多地参与业务。现在,根据最近的规则,有了更多的程序。

但我仍然要说,就商业实质和讨论的内容而言,我认为你可能会对整个美国企业界的总体水平感到惊讶。正如我在报告中所写的,董事会的工作绝大多数是找到合适的CEO。我的意思是,如果你有合适的CEO,90%的事情就自己解决了。如果你是Cap Cities的董事,而Tom Murphy是CEO,你知道,案子就结了。你需要的就这些。如果你有那个CEO,我认为董事会有义务确保CEO不会越界,因为CEO可能有不同的利益。我认为董事会做的第三件事——应该做的——是,在重大收购中,他们真的应该带来独立的判断。因为有一种自然的倾向,那些通常有大自我、大动力的人,成为CEO后喜欢做大事,喜欢花别人的钱来壮大自己。

而且通常,当大交易来临时,你知道,管理层——到那个时候,他们无论如何都已经做了交易。他们有投资银行家在那里,进行一些小小的仪式。我从未见过有人进来做一个报告说这是个愚蠢的主意。我的意思是,他们知道答案应该是什么,这就像变成了一场小游戏。所以我认为在这三个方面,一个好的董事首先会做一个肯定的决定。你有一个非常好的CEO——不是全世界最好的,不是每个人都能做到——但一个非常好的CEO。那个CEO不能越界。当重要交易来临时,他们有机会参与进来,并且你真的对你在做的事情的真实经济性进行平衡的讨论。关于最后一点,我多年来的所见所闻真的很糟糕。但我可以理解,因为CEO不会提出交易,除非他想要完成它。

一旦他提出交易,他会设法使局面对他有利,并以一种几乎不可能行使独立判断的方式做报告。查理,你有什么想法吗——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. I would say that most writers and most shareholders probably have a little bit of a distorted version, at least, how most corporations — large corporations — have operated over the years. Usually — for a long time I would say that directors, generally, were sort of potted plants. I mean, you sat there and the management had its agenda and didn’t really want input on major matters. And Charlie and I can certainly testify to the fact that we have had great lack of success, even when we were the largest shareholder of a company, in terms of talking about things that really count. I mean, if somebody spends their whole lifetime— 25, 30 years — rising to the position of CEO, you know, they want to be boss, and you can’t blame them, and the only thing in their way is the board of directors. So they look for people who are big names and they look for ways to keep them happy, but they don’t really want them getting into the business very much. There’s a lot more process now that’s been imposed by the recent rules.

But I would say still, in terms of the reality of the guts of business and the discussions that take place and all that, I think you might be surprised at the level overall of that throughout corporate America. As I’ve written in the report, overwhelmingly, the job of the board of directors is to have the right CEO. I mean, if you’ve got the right CEO, 90 percent of it takes care of itself. If you were the director of Cap Cities and you had Tom Murphy as the CEO, you know, case closed. It was all you needed. And if you have that CEO, I think you have an obligation on the board to make sure that there’s not overreaching by the CEO, because the CEO can have different interests. And I think the third thing that the board does — should do — is they really should bring some independent judgment in on major acquisitions. Because there is a natural tendency for people with, usually, big egos, big motors, who get to be CEOs that like to do big things and to become bigger spending other people’s money.

And normally, when big deals come along, you know, the management — by the time it gets there, they’ve made the deal anyway. They have investment bankers there who go through a little ritual. I’ve never seen one come in and make a presentation that says it’s a dumb idea. I mean, they know what the answer is supposed to be, and it just becomes kind of a little game. So I think in those three respects, a good director will first make an affirmative decision. You’ve got a very good CEO — not the best in the whole world, not everybody can do that — but a very good CEO. That that CEO is not overreaching. And when significant deals come along, that they get a chance to weigh in, and that you really get a balanced discussion about the real economics of what you’re doing. And I would say in that latter point, what I’ve seen over the years has really been pretty bad. But I can understand it because the CEO wouldn’t bring in the deal unless he wants it done.

And once he brings it in, he’s going to stack the deck and make the presentation in such a way that it’s almost impossible to exercise independent judgment. Charlie, do you have any thoughts on —

查理·芒格:我认为,平均而言,美国的大交易是违背股东利益的。这是打赌的方向。在收购方这边,通常股东的状况会更糟。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think big, big deals, on average, in America, are contrary to the shareholders’ interest. That’s the way to bet. On the acquirer’s side, usually the shareholders are worse off.

沃伦·巴菲特:大多数股票交易中,他们考虑的是自己得到了什么,而不考虑自己给出了什么。我的意思是,我一次又一次地参与其中,人们给出了公司很大的一部分,而他们本不会以当前市场价格出售这部分。如果有人以高出20%的价格提出要约收购,他们会说这个价格不够。但他们却因为想要拥有别的东西而交出了业务的一部分。这本身没有错,但你只是需要确保你得到的东西和你给出的东西一样多。我很少听到过讨论——事实上,我几乎从未听说过有讨论——权衡你在股票交易中实际给出了什么,以及你得到了什么。我听过很多关于稀释以及稀释何时会被克服之类的讨论,但这并不是问题所在。真正的问题是——如果创造了更多价值,这些价值是如何在两家公司之间分配的?

如果没有创造额外价值,你得到的是否比你给出的多?当我放弃伯克希尔·哈撒韦2%的股份来收购德克斯特鞋业时,那是世界历史上最愚蠢的交易之一。而且完全是我一个人干的。查理没有参与那次交易。我真希望他参与了。但是,你知道,这很愚蠢。我的意思是,那不是我当时在伯克希尔拥有的2%,而是现在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的2%。你们所有人本来都会富有2%——略多于2%——但如果我没做那件事,你们会整整富有2%。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Most stock deals, they think about what they’re getting and they don’t think about what they’re giving. I mean, I have been involved time after time where people are giving a significant percentage of the business, which they wouldn’t sell at the current market price. If somebody came along with a tender offer 20 percent higher, they would say that’s inadequate. But they hand away a piece of the business because they want to own something else. And there’s nothing wrong with that, but you just have to be sure that you’re getting as much as you’re giving. I have very seldom heard a discussion — in fact, I don’t think I’ve virtually ever heard of a discussion — of weighing what you were actually giving away on a stock deal versus what you’re getting. I’ve heard a lot of discussion about dilution and when dilution will be overcome and all that sort of thing, but that is not the question. The real question is are you — if more value is being created, how is it being whacked up between the two companies?

And if not extra value is being created, are you getting more than you’re giving? When I gave away 2 percent of Berkshire Hathaway to acquire Dexter Shoe, that was one of the dumbest deals in the history of the world. And I did it all by myself. Charlie didn’t participate in that one. I wish he had. But, you know, it was dumb. I mean, here’s — it wasn’t 2 percent of what I had then at Berkshire, it’s 2 percent of the present Berkshire Hathaway company. You’d all be 2 percent richer — a little more than 2 percent richer — but you’d be a full 2 percent richer if I hadn’t done that.

查理·芒格:幸运的是,你做了一些更好的决定。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Fortunately, you’ve made some better decisions.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。嗯,我必须这样做,否则我们就不会在这里了。(笑)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, I have to, or we wouldn’t be here. (Laughs)

查理·芒格:是的。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:但是,你知道,关键是这一点在传统会计中完全不会显现出来。你知道,它被掩盖了。在吉列,我们有连续十笔交易从未达到——甚至接近达到——当初提交给董事会时所陈述的情况。这一点是否曾向股东提及?在财务报告中有体现吗?从来没有。永远不会。这样的事情在美国企业界一直在发生。不幸的是,股东们如果对管理层不满,抱怨的是董事会是否多样性之类的事情。但是当你在毁掉公司的时候,我的意思是,在我看来,这要重要得多。查理,你想——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: But, you know, the point is that doesn’t show up under conventional accounting at all. You know, it gets brushed under the rug. At Gillette, literally, we had ten deals in a row that never met — came close to meeting — the case that was presented at the time they were presented to the board. Was that ever mentioned to shareholders? Did it show up in our financial report? Never. It never will. And that goes on all the time in corporate America. And, unfortunately, shareholders, to the extent they get unhappy with managements, are complaining about whether they’ve got diversity on the board or something like that. But when you’re blowing away the company, I mean, that, to me, is a whole lot more important. Charlie, you want to —

查理·芒格:是的。即使是一些非常聪明的头脑,在智商方面,那种自欺欺人的本性也令人惊讶。我有一个朋友,他把生意卖给了一个斯堪的纳维亚社会主义国家的政府控制企业。我朋友的生意非常好,而对方在用自己的政府公司的股票买下它之后,说:“这是一笔多么美妙的交易。我们得到了你的全部业务,而且我们什么都没给。”

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. The self-serving delusional nature of even some very good minds, in terms of IQ points, is amazing. I had a friend who sold a business to a government-controlled business in a socialized Scandinavian country. And my friend had a very nice business, and the people on the other side, after they had bought it for stock in their government corporations, said, “This was such a marvelous deal. We got your whole business, and we didn’t have to give anything.”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我们曾经在纳什维尔拥有第三国民银行的股票。他们获得了——他们是非常好的人——真的是非常好的人——但他们获得了收购其他银行的能力,而以前他们在这方面的能力是受限的。他们去了一个非常小的银行,那家小银行的人说:“我要股票。“他说:“我的股票价值是私人市场价值,而你的股票价值是市场价格。“然而市场价格恰好是——但他说:“我所得到的只是市场的价格,所以我希望你按市场价值估值你的股票,按这个巨大的溢价估值我的。""还有一个条件。“他说:“既然我要把我的全部净资产投入你们的股票,我希望你承诺以后永远不要再做这么蠢的交易。“(笑声)你还记得那个吗,查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we owned stock in the Third National Bank one time down in Nashville. And they got the ability — and they’re wonderful people — really wonderful people — but they got the ability to acquire other banks where they formerly had been limited in that ability. And they went out to some very small bank, and the guy at the very small bank said, “I want stock.” And he says, “My stock is worth private market value, and your stock is worth market price.” Well, market price happened to be half of — but he says, “All I’m getting is whatever the market is, so I want you to value your stock at market and value mine at this huge premium.” And he said, “And there’s one other condition.” He said, “Since I’m going to be putting my whole net worth in your stock,” he says, “I want you to promise you’ll never do a deal this dumb in the future.” (Laughter) Do you remember that one, Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的,我记得。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I remember.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。那个家伙只是有点——只是比通常情况更坦率一点。我曾在一些很棒的董事会任职。这里有一家叫Data Documents的本地公司,董事会里的每个人都真正在思考业务,理解业务,像所有者一样做决策。他们每个人都将净资产的重要一部分投入了这家公司,这大概是我所经历过的最好的董事会。我的意思是,那里的每一个决定都是从商业角度做出的。最糟糕的决定——至少它们有成为最糟糕决定的潜力——但现在标准程序是,当收购来临时,请来投资银行家和律师,而动力就是完全去完成交易。就像我说的,会有很多幻灯片展示。我可以——我不需要看幻灯片。我知道答案会是什么。最后他们会说这是笔好交易,你知道,而且不会有任何人提出反对意见。

他们只是——你知道,这不像你做一个决定,会有人给出正反两方面的意见。根本不是这样的。我不知道如何大幅改善这一点。我认为我们在伯克希尔有一个非常出色的团队。你的团队中几乎每个人都将净资产的重要一部分投入其中——比尔的钱太多了,我们没法让他达到一个显著的比例,但——他在里面有数亿美元。我们有一个与股东完全处于同一立场的董事会。他们没有董事和高级职员保险。他们既有下行风险也有上行收益。他们在公开市场上购买了股票,所以没有白送给他们。这是一个真正的所有者董事会,我喜欢这样。我认为这是一个很棒的团队,我很高兴能以低廉的成本让他们工作。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And that fellow was just being a little — was just getting a little more out in the open than is typically the case. I’ve been on some terrific boards. There was a local one here called Data Documents that really functioned with everybody on the board thinking about the business, understanding the business, making decisions as owners. Every one of them had a significant percentage of their net worth in the business, and probably the best board I’ve ever been on. I mean, every decision there was made for business reasons. The worst decisions — at least they have the potential for being the worst — but it’s standard procedure now when an acquisition comes up to trot in the, you know, investment bankers and the lawyers, and the momentum is just totally to get the deal done. And, like I say, there will be a lot of slides presented. And I can — I don’t need to look at the slides. I know what the answer is going to be. At the end they’re going to say it’s a great deal, you know, and there will be nobody arguing the other side.

They’re just — you know, it is not like something where you would make a decision and you’d have somebody give pro and con. It just doesn’t work that way. I don’t know how to improve that a lot. I think we’ve got a sensational group at Berkshire. You have a group with almost everybody on the board having a significant percentage of their net worth — Bill’s is so big we can’t get him to a significant percentage, but that’s — he’s got hundreds of millions of dollars in it. We’ve got a board that is in exactly the same position as the shareholders. They don’t have directors’ and officers’ insurance. They’ve got the downside as well as the upside. They bought their stock in the open market, so it hasn’t been given to them. It is a real owners’ board, and I like it that way. I think it’s a terrific group, and I’m glad I can get them to work cheap. (Applause)

28. 伯克希尔为何避免与合作伙伴做交易

原文

28. Why Berkshire avoids deals with partners

沃伦·巴菲特:第九个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 9, please.

参会者:我叫Eid(PH),来自科威特。针对之前关于向科威特借款的评论,我可以告诉你,40年后我们现在借出的是美元,你在科威特永远受欢迎。(笑声)我的问题是,如果您要选择合作伙伴与您一起进行大交易,您选择合作伙伴的标准是什么?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Eid (PH) and I’m from Kuwait. In response to earlier comment about borrowing from Kuwait, I can tell you that after 40 years we now lend in dollars, and you are always welcome in Kuwait. (Laughter) My question is, if you would pick your partners to invest with you in big deals, what would be your criteria for choosing partners?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我们——你问完了吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We — is that — are you complete on that?

参会者:问完了。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: I’m complete.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我们通常不想与合作伙伴做交易。如果我们喜欢一个交易,我们希望完全拥有它。而且我们通常有足够的资金来完成它,所以几乎——在极少数情况下才需要资金合作伙伴。然后还有知识合作伙伴的问题。我们真的不想在大多数情况下进入一个需要依靠别人来提供智力的交易。我们有过例外,但非常少。所以从本质上说,我们希望为股东的利益持有任何交易的100%。如果我们花时间在上面,我们宁愿得到100%的回报。我们不介意承担100%的下行风险。而且我们应该足够了解它,不需要合伙人。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We normally don’t want to do deals with partners. If we like a deal, we want to own it all. And we usually have the money to do it all, so almost — in very few cases would there be a need for a money partner. And then there’s a question for a knowledge partner. And we really wouldn’t want to be going into something, in most cases, where we were relying on somebody else to be the brains of the deal. We’ve made exceptions on that, but very seldom. So we — by our nature, we would like to have a hundred percent of any deal for the benefit of our shareholders. If we’re going to spend our time on it, we just as soon get a hundred percent of the rewards. We don’t mind taking a hundred percent of the downside. And we ought to understand it well enough so we don’t need a partner. Charlie?

查理·芒格:这点我也没有什么要补充的。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add to that one, either.

沃伦·巴菲特:第十个问题。等等,我在想。我们做过什么大的合伙交易吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 10. Wait, I’m just trying to think. Have we done any big partnership deals?

查理·芒格:嗯,你和Leucadia做过一个合伙交易,但那是他们带给你的交易。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, you made that partnership deal with Leucadia, but they brought you the deal.

沃伦·巴菲特:确实如此。我们和Leucadia做了一个非常好的合伙交易。他们做得远超自己分内的事,因为他们带来了这笔交易。所以他们邀请我们参与他们的交易。实际上,我们的一些业务我们持股不到100%,我们与管理层是合伙关系。但这很好。我的意思是,我们在这方面有一些很好的经验,而且我们还会继续有很好的经验。但是,你知道,他们——他们和我们处于相同的条件下,他们是所有者。我们所有的经理人都像所有者一样思考。但在某些情况下,他们也是这些业务的直接真实所有者。但就外部合伙方而言,我们确实没做过,不过如果Leucadia来找我,而我喜欢这个交易,我还会再和他们做一次。我的意思是,那是一次非常好的经历。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: That is true. We made a very good partnership deal with Leucadia. They did way more than their share, but they brought us the deal. And so they asked us to participate in their deal. Now, in effect, we own less than a hundred percent of some of our businesses, and we’re in partnership with the management. But that’s perfect. I mean, we’ve had some great experiences with that, and we’ll continue to have great experiences. But, you know, they came — they’re in on the same terms we are, and they’re owners. All of our managers think like owners. But in certain cases, they are real owners directly in those businesses as well. But just some outside party as a partner, we really haven’t done, although I would do another deal with Leucadia if they came to me and I liked the deal. I mean, that was a very good experience.

29. 对大宗商品价格没有观点

原文

29. No opinion on commodity prices

沃伦·巴菲特:第十个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 10.

参会者:女士们先生们,下午好。我叫Ari Jahja,是纽约市巴鲁克学院的大三学生。我代表投资管理俱乐部,感谢巴菲特先生邀请我们参加这个精彩的活动。我的问题是,首先,谈到伯克希尔的投资组合,您对大宗商品的投资敞口越来越大,比如通过中石油投资石油、通过浦项制铁投资钢铁、通过最近购买的铁路股票投资煤炭和农业。所以我的问题是,您对大宗商品的长期看法是什么?这对您对世界未来地缘政治格局的看法有何影响?谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Ari Jahja. I’m a junior from Baruch College, New York City. And on behalf of the Portfolio Management Club, I would like to thank you, Mr. Buffett, for inviting us to this wonderful event. And my question is that, first of all, speaking about Berkshire’s portfolio, there’s an increasing exposure of your investments toward commodities, such as to oil through PetroChina, to steel through POSCO, and to coal and agriculture through the rail stocks that you recently purchased. So my question is that what is your long-term view on commodities, and how does it impact your view on the geopolitical state of the world in the future? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我——据我所知,查理——我们也会听他说——但我们对大宗商品没有观点。我们——如果我们买入一只石油股,那是因为我们认为它在这个价格提供了很多价值,但这并不意味着我们认为石油价格会上涨。如果我们认为油价会上涨,我们可以买入石油期货,我们确实这样做过一次。但很少——非常非常少——我们会对任何特定大宗商品的走势有观点。持有浦项制铁,我们只是认为它是——嗯,它可能是世界上最好的钢铁公司,并且——有着非凡的记录。当我们买入那只股票时,我们是四到五倍的市盈率买入的,资产负债表上没有债务,它是最低成本的生产商之一。我的意思是,这是一家极好的公司。此外,它也是对韩元的一种投资,我们通过持有以韩元计价的证券在韩元上赚了20%。所以我们偶尔会涉足这类业务。

基本上,我们最喜欢那些只需要很少资本的业务,因为它们是唯一有可能获得真正高资本回报率的业务。你不可能有一个年复一年有巨额资本支出的业务,最终还能成为一个高回报率的业务。在这个世界上行不通。但你可以找到一些真正只需要相对最小资本投资的业务。这里有一个例子。这是一个小例子。但喜诗糖果不会需要巨大的资本投资。它需要一些资本投资,但它是一个很棒的生意。它是一个小生意,但它是一个很棒的生意。而且相对规模来说——经过规模调整——它远比任何钢铁生意或石油生意要好。只是它不够大。我们很希望它能更大。我们会尽我们所能做我们该做的,你可能也注意到了。

但我们没有任何——我们完全没有——对涉及大宗商品的业务的偏好。如果说我们有任何偏好,那就是反对。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. I — and, to my knowledge, Charlie — we’ll hear from him — but we have no opinion on commodities. We — if we were in an oil stock, it’s because we think it offers a lot of value at this price, but it does not mean that we think the price of oil is going up. If we thought oil was going up, we could buy oil futures, which we actually did once. But very seldom — very, very seldom would we have any opinion on what any given commodity would do. Owning POSCO, we just think it’s one of the — well, it is probably the best steel company in the world and — remarkable record. When we bought that stock, we were buying it at four or five times earnings, with a debt-free balance sheet, one of the lowest-cost producers around. I mean, it’s a fabulous company. And in addition, it was a play on the Korean won, and we made 20 percent on the won by being invested through a won-denominated security. So we may occasionally be in those kind of businesses.

We, basically, like best the businesses that require very little capital, because they’re the only ones that have a chance of earning really high returns on capital. You can’t have a business that has huge capital expenditures year after year, and end up with a high- return business. It just doesn’t work in this world. But you can find some businesses that really require relatively minimal capital investment. Here’s the case. This is a small one. But See’s Candy is not going to require a huge capital investment. It requires some capital investment, but it’s a wonderful business. It’s a small business, but it’s a wonderful business. And it’s far better business, relative to size — adjusted for size — it’s a far better business than any steel business is going to be or any oil business is going to be. It’s just that it’s not very big. We’d love to have it bigger. And we’ll do our share in every way we can, as you may have noticed up here.

But we do not have any — we do not have a bias toward — at all — toward businesses involved in commodities. And if we had any bias, it would be against. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。总的来说,我们是业务投资者,而不是大宗商品投资者。长期来看,这必须更好。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. We’re going to be investors in businesses, not commodities, by and large. And that has to work better over time.

30. 纽约时报的双重股权结构

原文

30. Dual class shares at the New York Times

沃伦·巴菲特:第十一个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 11.

参会者:下午好。我是来自康涅狄格州韦斯顿的安迪·皮克(Andy Peake)。最近报纸行业新闻很多:鲁珀特·默多克(Rupert Murdoch)竞购道琼斯,摩根士丹利的哈桑·埃尔马斯里(Hassan Elmasry)推动取消纽约时报的双重股权结构。鉴于你们都是双重股权结构和报纸行业的专家,你们会给纽约时报长期受苦的股东什么建议?你们对四面楚歌的纽约时报CEO、拥有该报的家族掌门人亚瑟·苏兹伯格(Arthur Sulzberger)有什么建议?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon. My name is Andy Peake from Weston, Connecticut. Recently the newspapers have been in the news: the [Rupert] Murdoch bid for Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley’s Hassan Elmasry’s push to eliminate the New York Times dual-class share. Given you are both experts in the dual-class share and newspapers, what advice would you give to the long-suffering New York Times shareholders, and what advice do you have for Arthur Sulzberger, the besieged CEO of the New York Times and head of the family that owns the newspaper?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我认为你所说的纽约时报”长期受苦”的股东可能犯了一个错误——我不认为我必然会把报纸行业的不幸归咎于苏兹伯格家族。我的意思是,我们已经说了很多年,我们认为——实际上,我们认为报纸被高估了,因为它们的估值反映的是后视镜中的景象,而不是透过窗户看到的景象。而且——有趣的是。我们在伯克希尔也有这种双重股权结构。但由于我把一大堆股票转换成了B股,我持有B股的比例与A股差不多,因为我转换的数量是我目前赠予所需数量的六到七倍。我只在必要的时候才去我的保险箱,我不想每年都去转换股票,所以我早早地就把一堆股票转换了。现在我对每种股票大约持有30%。所以在伯克希尔的投票权方面没有任何影响。但报纸行业的问题与时报或其他地方投票结构的差异无关。

报纸行业变得困难多了。如果你想一想——我的意思是,假设15世纪的约翰内斯·古腾堡(Johannes Gutenberg)没有浪费时间发明活字印刷之类的东西,而是决定成为一个日内交易者或对冲基金经理,真正有所成就,这样我们就永远不会有印刷术了。但后来互联网出现了,有线电视出现了,各种各样其他的东西也出现了。然后今年,你知道,第28代约翰内斯·古腾堡什么的过来说:“我有一个绝妙的主意。我们要砍倒树。我们要把它们运到很远的地方。然后我们要把它们放进昂贵的新闻纸机器里。然后我们要把它们送到一些有昂贵印刷机的地方。我们要让这些东西整夜运转。然后我们要在雪地里派出送货车,把这些小纸片送到人们手中,让他们读到昨天发生的事情。”

嗯,我想我们不会再支持他了,你知道。但现在这已经发生了,你知道。另一个先来了,人们的习惯不会立即改变,你知道,世界也不会天翻地覆。但实际上,你知道,今天报纸的地位仍然反映了一个事实,即它们有来自过去的惯性和动力的支持。我不在乎你有多聪明。你知道,几年前有个人进了《洛杉矶时报》。我印象中他要把发行量提高到150万份,查理。而《洛杉矶时报》目前的发行量是80多万份,而且每周都在下降。我不知道——你知道,我不知道约瑟夫·普利策、威廉·伦道夫·赫斯特或E.W.斯克里普斯,这些人在他们的时代可能是发行方面的天才,是否对此能有多大作为。事实是,世界已经发生了巨大的变化。我们曾经每年卖出30万套《世界百科全书》。这是一个很好的价值。

你知道,我们现在只卖2.2万套左右。这不是因为《世界百科全书》不值它的售价。只是对于大多数可以在互联网上免费获取大量信息的人来说,它不值那个价格。所以我不认为我会把任何人在纽约时报上的投资损失归咎于双重股权结构。那些没有双重股权结构的公司——我的意思是,我们拥有《布法罗新闻》。《布法罗新闻》的盈利——肯定比高峰期下降了40%以上。我们有非常出色的管理层。我们的报纸是全国大城市报纸中发行渗透率最高的之一。但是我们的——我们的盈利正在下降,这是一个事实。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think the “long suffering,” as you put it, shareholder of the New York Times has probably made a mistake — I don’t think I’d necessarily blame the Sulzbergers for the woes of the newspaper business. I mean, we have said for a good many years that we thought — in effect, we thought newspapers were overpriced because they reflected a valuation based on looking in the rearview mirror rather than through the window. And we — it’s interesting. We have this dual-class structure at Berkshire. But because I converted a whole bunch of shares to B, I own about the same percentage of the B as the A, because I converted about six or seven times as much as I needed for present gifts. I only go down to my safe deposit box when I have to, and I didn’t want to go down every year to convert stocks, so I just converted a bunch of stock early on. And now I own about 30 percent of each. So it has no effect, in terms of voting power at Berkshire. But the woes of the newspaper business are not connected with the difference in voting structure at the Times or other places.

The newspaper business has just gotten a lot tougher. And if you think about it — I mean, let’s assume that Mr. [Johannes] Gutenberg, back there in the 15th century, instead of wasting his time developing movable type and all of those kinds of things, decided to become a day trader or hedge fund operator and really made something of himself, so that we never had print. But along came the internet, along came cable TV, all kinds of other things. And then now this year, you know, Johannes Gutenberg the 28th or something, came along and said, “I’ve got this wonderful idea. We’re going to chop trees down. We’re going to haul them great distances. “And then we’re going to put them through expensive newsprint machines. And then we’re going to send them down to someplace where they’ve got expensive presses. “And we’ll run these things all night. And then we’ll send delivery trucks out through the snow to get these little pieces of paper out to people where they can read about what happened yesterday.”

Well, I don’t think we would be backing him, you know. Now, it happened, you know. The other one came along first, and people’s habits don’t change immediately, and, you know, the world doesn’t turn over. But, in effect, you know, the position of newspapers today still reflects the fact that they have inertia and momentum on their side from the past. And I don’t care how smart you are. You know, there was a fellow that came into the LA Times a few years back. He was going to take the circulation up to a million- five, as I remember, Charlie. And the circulation is now 800-and-some thousand of the LA Times, and it’s gone down every week. And I don’t know that — you know, I don’t know that Joseph Pulitzer or William Randolph Hearst or E.W. Scripps or anybody who were geniuses in their day, maybe, at building circulation, could do much about that. The truth is that the world has changed in a significant way. We used to sell 300,000 World Books a year. It was a good value.

You know, and we sell 22,000 sets or something like that now. And it isn’t because the World Book isn’t worth what it sells for. It’s just not worth what it sells to for most people who can go on the internet and get an awful lot of that information free. So I don’t think I would blame the dual-class structure on anybody’s investment losses in the New York Times. The companies that have not had dual-class structures — I mean, we own the Buffalo News. And the Buffalo News earnings have been — they’re certainly down over 40 percent from the peak. We have terrific management. We’ve got a paper that has among the highest penetration in circulation of any large metropolitan paper in the country. But we are — our earnings are going down, and it’s a fact of life. Charlie?

查理·芒格:是的。他谈到双重股权结构本质上是错误的,但我会说,苏兹伯格家族在上市时就设立了这种结构,所以这属于基础合约的一部分。一旦合约订立,认为你可以跺跺脚就取消合约,在我看来是一种——有点不成熟的想法。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. He was talking about that dual-class structure as being intrinsically wrong, but I would argue that the Sulzbergers set it up that way when they went public, and so that was in the basic contract. And once a contract has been made, the idea that you can just stamp your foot and take away the contract strikes me as a — kind of an immature idea.

沃伦·巴菲特:我还要补充一点,苏兹伯格家族从一开始——任何购买纽约时报的人都知道,他们不会试图在某个季度最大化盈利,或者通过削减成本等方式来最小化衰退。他们不是通过这样做来建立纽约时报的。它的声誉不允许它这样做,也许这反而使它在互联网上有一个体面的未来。它不是通过商学院教的管理101政策达到今天这个地位的。然而,遵循那种不同的道路,你知道,我不知道纽约有多少报纸消失了。不管是《先驱论坛报》、《太阳报》、《世界电讯报》还是其他什么,这个世界——它们有不同的管理方法,结果都倒下了,而《时报》依然存在。所以我不确定10年后或15年后,人们会认为《时报》的打法一定是次优的。它们进入互联网的地位可能比几乎任何报纸都要好。

当然比《费城问询报》或《洛杉矶时报》好得多。你知道,如果互联网上要玩全国性的游戏,《洛杉矶时报》在将自己的声誉货币化方面会比《纽约时报》遇到更多困难。所以我们来看看事态如何发展。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I would add, too, that the Sulzbergers from the start — anybody that bought the New York Times knew that they would not try to maximize earnings in a given quarter or try to minimize the downturn by slashing costs or something of the sort. They didn’t build the New York Times by doing that. It did not have a reputation which allows it, perhaps, to have a decent future on the internet. It did not get to where it is by a policy of, you know, Management 101 as taught as some business school. And, yet, following that differing course, you know, I don’t know how many papers in New York disappeared. But whether it’s The Herald Tribune or The Sun or The World-Telegram or you name it, the world — they had a different management approach, and they all fell by the wayside, and the Times is still around. So I — I’m not sure 10 years from now or 15 years from now that people will regard the Times’ playing of their hand as being, necessarily, an inferior one. They may have a better position going into the internet than almost any newspaper around.

Certainly a lot better than, you know, the Philadelphia Inquirer or the LA Times has. You know, the LA Times will have more trouble monetizing their reputation on the internet than the New York Times will, if there’s a national game to be played in that. So we’ll see how it plays out.

31. 年会空间即将不足

原文

31. Annual meeting is running out of space

沃伦·巴菲特:第十二个问题。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 12.

参会者:我叫贝蒂·斯图尔特·罗杰斯·杰弗里斯(Betty Stuart Rodgers Jeffreys),住在伊利诺伊州巴灵顿山,芝加哥西北35英里。这是我第一次参加你们的年会,我想感谢你们两位花这么多时间回答我们的问题,并给我们这么多智慧的话语。我还要感谢你们给了我们一个美妙的周末,包括午餐、早午餐、鸡尾酒会、在Gorat’s和Borsheims的时光。问题是,当我告诉我的两个成年女儿我要度过这样一个美妙的周末时,她们都让我保证明年带她们来。如果明年有25,000人每人带两个人,我们到哪里开会呢?

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Betty Stuart Rodgers Jeffreys, and I live in Barrington Hills, Illinois, 35 miles northwest of Chicago. This is the first time I’ve ever been to your annual meeting, and I want to thank you both for giving us so much time to answer our questions and give us such words of wisdom. I would also like to thank you for giving us a wonderful weekend of lunches, brunches, cocktail parties, time at Gorat’s and Borsheims. The problem is that when I told my two adult daughters that I was going to have such a wonderful weekend, they both made me promise to bring them next year. And if 25,000 people bring two people next year, where are we going to meet?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,如果你找到答案,我真的想听听。因为——大约有27,000人,我们这里几乎饱和了。我们的酒店房间几乎饱和了。我想明年奥马哈会有四家新酒店——

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would — if you get the answer to that, I’m really waiting to hear it. Because we — it’s about 27,000, and we are just about maxed out here. We’re just about maxed out in terms of hotel rooms. I think we’re going to have four new hotels in Omaha —

参会者:哦,太好了。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Oh, good.

沃伦·巴菲特:——在明年之前。但是,你知道,那也只能容纳几千人。而且,根据增长情况,在某个时候我们就会碰到天花板,我还没想好怎么处理。如果有人有任何建议,我会很高兴听到。但我很高兴你在这里玩得开心。我希望你们都玩得开心。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: — before next year. But, you know, that’s a couple thousand people. And, you know, based on the growth, at some point we sort of hit the wall, and I haven’t figured out how to handle that. If anybody has any suggestions, I’ll appreciate hearing about them. But I’m delighted you’re having a good time here. I hope you’ve all had a good time here.

参会者:谢谢。

原文

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:我们现在休息十分钟,然后重新开会。谢谢。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: We’re now going to take a ten-minute recess, and then we’ll reconvene. Thank you.

32. 正式业务会议开始

原文

32. Formal business meeting begins

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。请就座?我们想在4点前结束,所以我们会尽快办理剩下的业务,然后进入中石油的问题。让我们看看。好的。现在会议开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,公司董事会主席。欢迎你们参加本次2007年股东年会。我将首先介绍伯克希尔的董事——我已经做过了。今天与我们在一起的还有我们的审计公司德勤的合伙人。他们可以回答你们关于公司对伯克希尔账目审计的适当问题。福雷斯特·克鲁特先生是伯克希尔的秘书。他将做会议记录。贝基·阿米克小姐被任命为本次会议的选举监察员。她将认证董事选举的投票计数。本次会议指定的代理投票人是沃尔特·斯科特和马克·汉堡。秘书有没有关于伯克希尔已发行、有投票权及本次会议代表的股份数量的报告?福雷斯特?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. If you’ll please take your seats? We want to finish by 4, so we’d like to move quickly through the rest of the business, and we’ll get on to the PetroChina question. And let’s see. Here we are. The meeting will now come to order. I’m Warren Buffett, chairman of the board of directors of the company. I welcome you to this 2007 annual meeting of shareholders. I will first introduce the Berkshire directors — I’ve already done that. So, also today with us are partners in the firm of Deloitte & Touche, our auditors. They are available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning the firm’s audit of the accounts of Berkshire. Mr. Forrest Krutter is secretary of Berkshire. He will make a written record of the proceedings. Miss Becki Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. She will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding, entitled to vote, and represented at this meeting? Forrest?

福雷斯特·克鲁特:是的,我有。正如随会议通知附上的代理声明中所述,该通知已于2007年3月6日(本次会议的登记日期)发送给所有在册股东,当时有1,113,240股A类伯克希尔股票已发行,每股有权在会议审议的动议中投一票,以及12,888,424股B类伯克希尔·哈撒韦普通股已发行,每股有权在会议审议的动议中投二百分之一票。其中,截至5月3日周四,通过返回的代理投票权,有955,276股A类股和11,301,274股B类股在会上有代表。

原文

FORREST KRUTTER: Yes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 6, 2007, being the record date of this meeting, there were 1,113,240 shares of Class A Berkshire stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 12,888,424 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one twohundredth of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 955,276 Class A shares, and enough — 11,301,274 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday, May 3rd.

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。这个数字构成了法定人数,因此我们将直接进行会议。第一项议程是宣读上次股东大会的会议记录。我请沃尔特·斯科特先生向会议提出动议。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. That number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. The first order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott, who will place a motion before the meeting.

沃尔特·斯科特:我提议免去宣读上次股东大会会议记录的程序,并通过该会议记录。

原文

WALTER SCOTT: I move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of the shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.

沃伦·巴菲特:有人附议吗?我想我听到了附议。动议已被提出和附议。有评论或问题吗?我们将以口头表决的方式对此问题进行投票。赞成的请说”赞成”。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Do I hear a second? I guess I heard a second. The motion has been moved and seconded. Are there any comments or questions? We will vote on this question by voice vote. All those in favor say “aye.”

声音:赞成。

原文

VOICES: Aye.

沃伦·巴菲特:反对?动议通过。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Opposed? The motion is carried.

33. 伯克希尔董事选举

原文

33. Berkshire directors elected

沃伦·巴菲特:第一项议题是选举董事。如果有股东在场希望撤销之前已提交的代理投票权并亲自投票选举董事,可以这样做。同时,如果任何在场的股东尚未提交代理投票权并希望获得选票亲自投票,也可以这样做。如果您希望这样做,请向过道中的会议工作人员表明身份,我们会向您提供选票。请需要选票的人表明身份,以便我们分发选票。我现在请沃尔特·斯科特先生就董事选举向会议提出动议。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: The first item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholder is present who wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in and vote in person on the election of directors, he or she may do so. Also, if any shareholder that is present has not turned in a proxy and desires a ballot in order to vote in person, you may do so. If you wish to do this, please identify yourself to meeting officials in the aisles, and we’ll furnish a ballot to you. Would those persons desiring ballots please identify themselves so that we may distribute them. I now recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.

沃伦·巴菲特:我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、唐·基奥、汤姆·墨菲、罗恩·奥尔森和沃尔特·斯科特为董事。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Don Keough, Tom Murphy, Ron Olson, and Walter Scott be elected as directors.

沃伦·巴菲特:有人附议吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Is there a second?

声音:附议。

原文

VOICE: Second.

沃伦·巴菲特:动议已提出并附议,选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、霍华德·巴菲特、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、唐纳德·基奥、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森和沃尔特·斯科特为董事。还有其他提名吗?有讨论吗?提名已经准备好进行表决。如果有股东亲自投票,现在应在董事选举选票上做标记,并将选票交给选举监察员。请代理投票人也将董事选举的选票提交给选举监察员,按照他们收到的指示进行投票。阿米克小姐,当你准备好时,可以提交报告了。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: It’s been moved and seconded that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Donald Keough, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, and Walter Scott be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations? Is there any discussion? The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the election of directors and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Would the proxy holders please also submit to the inspector of elections a ballot on the election of directors voting the proxies in accordance with the instructions they have received. Miss Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.

丽贝卡·阿米克:我的报告准备好了。代理投票人根据截至上周四晚上收到的代理投票权所做的投票,为每位被提名人投下了不少于1,008,564票。这个数字远远超过了与所有已发行的A类和B类股票相关的总票数的多数。根据特拉华州法律所要求的投票精确计数的证明,包括代理投票人将根据本次会议提交的代理投票权所做的额外投票,以及本次会议上亲自投出的任何票数,将交给秘书,与本次会议记录一同存档。

原文

REBECCA AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast not less than 1,008,564 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes related to all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes, including the additional votes to be cast by the proxy holders in response to proxies delivered at this meeting, as well as any cast in person at is this meeting, will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克小姐。沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格

2007年股东大会

第6/6部分

沃伦·巴菲特:我想——我想——他是不是股东?我想确认所有股东都有机会——

杰拉德·波特:他持有埃塔和詹姆斯·弗兰德的代理投票权,他们是三股股票的持有人——

沃伦·巴菲特:我只是想确认一下。还有没有其他7号股东想发言?我想确保时间不被一个人全部占用。

听众成员:我们不会占用所有时间。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。那没问题。我只是想确保股东不会被阻止发言。

听众成员:下午好,感谢你们邀请我就达尔富尔问题发言。我叫阿巴米德·约瑟夫(音译),今天我作为埃塔、弗雷塔和詹姆斯·弗兰德的代理投票人发言,他们持有四股B类股票。我来自西达尔富尔,我的父母仍住在达尔富尔。2002年9月,在喀土穆的苏丹大学因公开谈论达尔富尔(听不清)而被开除后,我逃往埃及。我们被拘留了几周,每天都遭受身心虐待,直到他们释放我们并告诉我们不允许上任何大学,而且必须远离任何学生协会的活动。我在美国获得难民身份,并于2005年3月搬到爱荷华州得梅因。2007年1月8日,金戈威德袭击了我的家人——我在达尔富尔的家。四名来自金戈威德的阿拉伯男子在清晨袭击了我们的家。当时,我家有一位客人。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I would — I would — Is he a shareholder or not? I want to be sure all the shareholders have a —

GERALD PORTER: He has the proxy of Etta and James Friend, who are the shareholders of three shares —

WARREN BUFFETT: I just want to make sure. Are there other shareholders at 7 that want to talk too or not? I want to make sure that all the time isn’t taken.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: We will not take all the time.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. That’s fine. I just want to make sure that the shareholders aren’t shut up.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, and thank you for inviting me to speak about Darfur. My name is Abdamide Jusef (PH), and I am speaking today as a proxy of Etta, Freta, and James Friend, who are the holder of four shares of Class B stocks. I am from western Darfur, and my parents still live in Darfur. I fled from Sudan to Egypt in September 2002 after being expelled from Sudan University in Khartoum for speaking out in (inaudible) of Darfur. We are detained for a few week and we suffered from abuse physically and psychologically every day until they released and told us we are not allowed to go to any university and we had to stay away from any activity for that student association. I get refugee status in the United States, and I move to Des Moines, Iowa, on March 2005. The Janjaweed attack my family — my family’s home — in Darfur in January 8, 2007. Four Arab men from the Janjaweed attack our home in the early morning. At that time, there was a guest in my family home.

金戈威德没有理会他,所以他跑去找邻居帮忙。金戈威德先是从我家拿走了所有钱和珠宝。当他们发现有人跑去求助时,他们离开了我的家人,但承诺他们会回来。尽管我的家人没有受伤,但我的邻居(听不清)和他五口之家全部被金戈威德杀害。金戈威德还抢走了他们的马,这些活动在我所在的小镇持续了一段时间。我社区里的每个人都有亲人被金戈威德杀害或袭击。我妈妈告诉我,每个人每天醒来,第一件事就是检查他们的邻居和亲戚是否还活着,我也是如此。金戈威德正在洗劫我的小镇。现在他们像帮派一样杀人强奸。每个家庭都受到影响,没有人能阻止他们。尽管我在美国生活得安全和平,但我仍然担心我在达尔富尔的家人的安危。请你们尽力帮助我的家人和所有在达尔富尔的人。

原文

The Janjaweed left him without attention; so he run away to get help from our neighbors. The Janjaweed started by taking all the money and jewelry from my family. When the Janjaweed found out that someone had run to get help, they left my family, but they promised them they were going to come back. Even that my family escaped injury, my neighbor (inaudible) and his entire family of five were murdered by the Janjaweed. The Janjaweed also took their horses, and these activities were ongoing in my town for a while. And everybody in my community or someone was murdered, have someone was murdered and raided by the Janjaweed. My mom told me everybody wake up every day, and the first thing they do is check their neighbor and their relative to see if they are alive or not, and so do I. The Janjaweed are stealing my town. Now they work as gangs who kill and rape. Every family is affected, and nobody can stop them. Even though I live in safety and peace there — here in United States, I still worry about my family back home in Darfur. Please try to do anything to help my family and all people in Darfur.

我需要你们的帮助。如果你们做一些简单的事情,比如告诉你的朋友关于达尔富尔的种族灭绝,或者加入一个组织,或者与你们的国会议员谈话或写信,或者不要投资任何帮助达尔富尔种族灭绝的公司。请巴菲特先生和伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东们,行动起来,为达尔富尔的儿童、妇女和所有人类带来希望与和平。你们为阻止达尔富尔种族灭绝所做的一切,就是在拯救生命。感谢你们的倾听,现在我想介绍鲍勃·埃德加,全国教会委员会总书记。谢谢。

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I need your help. If you do the simple thing like tell your friend about the genocide in Darfur or join an organization, or talk or send letters to your member of Congress, or don’t invest in any companies that’s helped genocide in Darfur. Please, Mr. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, get involved to bring the hope and peace to the children and women and all of us in Darfur. Whatever you do to stop the genocide in Darfur is saving life of human being. Thank you for listening, and now I would like to introduce Bob Edgar, the General Secretary of the National Council of the Church. Thank you.

鲍勃·埃德加:在结束之前,我是鲍勃·埃德加,全国教会委员会总书记,前美国国会议员。我来这里支持这项决议,并作为多丽丝·格拉克的代理投票人,她持有公司十股B类股票。1968年2月,我有幸见到了马丁·路德·金博士,五周后他被暗杀。后来,作为国会议员,我曾在暗杀特别调查委员会任职,调查金博士和约翰·F·肯尼迪的死因。今天我来到这里,是为了纪念金博士的那种梦想。他说过这样一句话:“我们的生命从我们对重要的事情保持沉默的那一天开始结束。我们不会保持沉默。“今天我在这里代表数百万虔诚的美国人——基督徒、犹太人、穆斯林和其他人——他们站起来对这场种族灭绝说”不”。就在11年、12年或13年前,90天内卢旺达有80万人被杀,而我们保持沉默。我们不会再保持沉默了。

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BOB EDGAR: As we close, I’m Bob Edgar, General Secretary of the National Council of Churches and a former member of the United States Congress. I’m here in support of the resolution and a proxy for Doris Gluck, who holds ten shares in the company Class B stock. In February of 1968, I had the privilege of meeting Dr. Martin Luther King five weeks before he was assassinated. Later, as a member of Congress, I served on the Select Committee on Assassinations, looking into both the death of Dr. King and John F. Kennedy. I come here today in honor of the kind of dream that Dr. King had. He said this: “Our lives begin and end the day we have become silent about the things that matter. We will not be silent.” I am here today representing millions of faithful Americans — Christians, Jews, Muslims, and others — who have stood up and said no to this genocide. Just 11 or 12 or 13 years ago, 800,000 people were killed in Rwanda in 90 days, and we were silent. We will be silent no more. Mr.

巴菲特先生,今天早上你说了一句很棒的话,我引用一下:“当政府利用其公民的弱点而非保护他们时,我觉得这是可耻的。“我完全同意。你说的是赌博。我们恳请你以同样的方式思考种族灭绝问题。在反对这项决议的文件中,你这样说:“主张从中国政府撤资的人应该问经济学中最重要的问题,‘然后呢?‘“我们准备回答这个问题,“然后呢?然后呢?“到那时,世界将最终关注达尔富尔的种族灭绝问题。到那时,全世界许多公司的国际投资者将追随伯克希尔·哈撒韦的道德领导力,道德领导力,呼吁世界各国政府停止种族灭绝。“然后呢?“孩子们将被拯救,妇女将不会被强奸,父亲将不会被杀害,我们将在这个人类大家庭中找到彼此关爱的方式。耶稣说:“我们应该爱邻如己。”

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Buffett, this morning you said a great thing, and I quote, “I find it reprehensible when a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizens rather than protecting them.” I wholeheartedly agree. You were talking about gambling. We urge you to think the same way about genocide. On the document in opposition to this resolution, you said this: “Proponents of the Chinese government’s divesting should ask the most important question in economics, ‘And then what?’” We are prepared to answer that question, “And then what? And then what?” Then the world will finally focus on the issue of genocide in Darfur. Then the international investors all over the world in many companies would follow the ethical actions of Berkshire Hathaway’s moral leadership, moral leadership, and call for all governments of the world to stop the genocide. “And then what?” Children would be saved, women would not be raped, fathers would not be killed, and we would find our way in this human family to care for one another. Jesus said, “We should love our neighbors as ourselves.”

我认为他的意思是:“我们应该尽一切可能阻止那些邻居被杀害。“这只是我们遵循耶稣那些话的一种方式。最后,前教皇约翰·保罗说过:“我梦想一个世界,在那里没有人会贫穷到无法给予,也没有人会富有到无需接受。“我恳请支持这项决议。(掌声)

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I think he meant, “We should probably try every means available to stop those neighbors from being killed.” This is just one way we can follow those words of Jesus. And, finally, the former pope, John Paul, said, “I dream of a world where none will be so poor they have nothing to give and none will be so rich they have nothing to receive.” I urge support of this resolution. (Applause.)

沃伦·巴菲特:在我们回应之前,还有其他股东想发言吗?

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WARREN BUFFETT: Are there other shareholders that would like to talk before we respond?

听众成员:巴菲特先生,我叫亚伦·弗兰克。感谢您听取我们就此事的发言。我来自乔治亚州亚特兰大。作为伯克希尔的股东,我也独立持有中石油的股票。多年来,关于是否撤资的问题,我一直很纠结。我个人的做法是将从中石油获得的股息捐赠给帮助达尔富尔的组织,但这主要是象征性的。对我来说,清楚的是,如果我有机会像今天与您这样有意义地接触中石油管理层,我会在道德上感到不得不这样做。作为伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东,我们有一个独特的机会,由于您的地位,我们可以以一种不仅被中石油管理层听到,而且被中国石油天然气集团公司、中国和国际社会听到的方式接触中石油管理层。这是一个独特的机会,而这是一件极其重要的事情。我认为我们在道义上有义务这样做。感谢您的倾听。

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AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett, my name is Aaron Frank. Thank you for hearing us on this matter. I’m from Atlanta, Georgia. And along with being a — along with being a Berkshire shareholder, I also independently own shares of PetroChina. And this issue is something I’ve struggled with for years, in terms of whether to divest or not. What I’ve done personally is given the dividends that I receive from PetroChina to organizations that help in Darfur, but this is mostly symbolic. What is clear to me is if I had the opportunity to engage the management of PetroChina in a meaningful way as I do with you here today, that I would be compelled to do so ethically. As owners of Berkshire Hathaway, we have a unique opportunity to engage the management of PetroChina in a way that will be heard not only by the management of PetroChina but by CNPC, China, and the international community due to your standing. That’s a unique opportunity, and this is an incredibly — this is an incredibly important matter. I think we have an ethical obligation to do so. Thank you for listening.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。谢谢。(掌声)

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WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Thank you. (Applause.)

沃伦·巴菲特:还有其他人吗——

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WARREN BUFFETT: Is there anyone —

听众成员:是的。

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AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes.

沃伦·巴菲特:好。

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WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

听众成员:我叫比尔·罗森菲尔德,来自马萨诸塞州列克星敦。你在网上的帖子中声称,子公司无法控制母公司的行为,因此针对中石油的行动不会对中国石油天然气集团公司产生影响。假设数百万美国人因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦的一项政策而抵制GEICO保险或其他伯克希尔公司,难道这不会让你重新考虑那项政策吗?尽管你的子公司在伯克希尔·哈撒韦管理层中没有发言权。针对中石油以影响中国石油天然气集团公司,这与这种情况有何不同?(掌声)

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AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Bill Rosenfeld from Lexington, Massachusetts. In your web posting you claim that a subsidiary can’t control the actions of its parent, so actions against PetroChina will have no impact on CNPC. Suppose that millions of Americans boycotted GEICO Insurance or other Berkshire companies because of a policy at Berkshire Hathaway. Wouldn’t that make you reconsider that policy even though your subsidiaries are voiceless in Berkshire Hathaway management? How does targeting PetroChina to influence CNPC differ from this situation? (Applause.)

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我实际上会说这非常不同。如果威斯科的一个股东——马克,你也许可以调出显示中国和伯克希尔所有权关系的图表——

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WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I actually would say it’s quite different. If a shareholder of Wesco — you might — Marc, you might put up the chart that shows the flow of ownership both with China and with —

马克·汉堡:已经调出来了。

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MARK HAMBURG: It’s up.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。威斯科不控制伯克希尔·哈撒韦。我们可以在管理层等方面有很多重叠。伯克希尔·哈撒韦控制威斯科。如果威斯科的一个股东向威斯科管理层抱怨,比如说,伯克希尔收购了IMC或任何其他活动或我个人的任何行为,他们对控制我没有任何能力。如果有人向伯克希尔抱怨威斯科发生的事情,我们当然可以采取行动。所以,方向是向下的。重叠没有任何意义。我的意思是,显然中国政府控制中石油。他们拥有88%的股份。我们控制MiTek。我们拥有90%的股份。我们控制威斯科。我们拥有80%的股份。我们可以告诉MiTek做什么。我们可以告诉威斯科做什么。但MiTek和威斯科不能告诉伯克希尔做什么。我认为对此存在根本性的误解。中国政府控制了33家最大的中国上市公司中的20家——实际上是32家。

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WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Wesco does not control Berkshire Hathaway. We can have all the — we can have lots of overlap in management and everything. Berkshire Hathaway controls Wesco. If a shareholder of Wesco were to complain to the management of Wesco, which is analogous to PetroChina, about the fact that, let’s say, that Berkshire bought ISCAR or any other activity or anything I was doing personally, they would have no ability to control me. If somebody controlled — complained to Berkshire about something that was going on at Wesco, we could certainly introduce action. So the — it flows downward. The overlap means nothing. I mean, obviously the Chinese government controls PetroChina. They own 88 percent of the stock. We control MiTek. We own 90 percent of the stock. We control Wesco. We own 80 percent of the stock. We can tell MiTek what to do. We can tell Wesco what to do. But MiTek and Wesco cannot tell Berkshire what to do. I think there’s a fundamental misunderstanding on that. The Chinese government controls 20 — 32 of the largest 33 publicly-owned companies in China.

而中国政府实际上负责所有这些公司。中国政府与苏丹有业务往来。中石油没有。中石油绝不对中国政府发号施令。我们在很多方面都看到了证据。所以对我来说,这是反过来的。如果中石油遵循了中国政府不同意的政策,相信我,很快就会发生变化。我们对达尔富尔发生的事情完全没有分歧。有两个问题。第一是中石油影响中国政府。第二,如果我们不同意中国政府正在做的事情,我们是否应该出售中石油的股票?在这里发言的、持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票的人,显然已经做出了选择,即使他们不同意我们的政策,也继续作为股东。我百分之百同意他们的做法。反过来,我们选择继续持有中石油的股份,因为我们对中石油正在做的事情没有分歧。如果存在分歧,那可能是与中国政府正在做的事情有关。

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WARREN BUFFETT: The Chinese government, in effect, is in charge of all of those companies. The Chinese government does business with the Sudan. PetroChina does not. PetroChina in no way tells the Chinese government what to do. And we’ve seen evidence of that in a lot of ways. So it seems to me it’s backwards. If it was PetroChina following a policy that the Chinese government disagreed with, believe me, there would be a change in a hurry. We have no disagreement at all about what’s going on in Darfur. There’s two questions. One is PetroChina influence the Chinese government. And, secondly, if we don’t agree with what the Chinese government is doing, should we sell our stock in PetroChina? The people here who are come, who own stock in Berkshire Hathaway, have obviously made the choice, even though they disagree with what our policy is, to continue as shareholders. And I agree with them — with that — a hundred percent. And we, in turn, elect to continue to hold our shares in PetroChina because we have no disagreement with what PetroChina is doing. If there’s a disagreement, it may be with what the Chinese government is doing.

现在,就中国政府正在做的事情而言,我们听到了关于中国撤资的讨论。如果中国明天离开苏丹,40万桶石油仍将被生产出来,其中相当一部分是用中国在苏丹投资的资金。你无法拿走这些资产。你无法拿走炼油厂。你无法拿走管道。你无法拿走石油。他们可以出售他们的权益。他们可以卖给其他在苏丹做生意的公司。他们可以卖给苏丹政府。但相信我,他们可能会卖得很便宜。苏丹政府会捡到便宜,或者如果苏丹政府允许第三方购买,他们很可能会重新谈判对自己有利的条款。相信我,假设他们能够影响转让——我认为人们并不真正理解如果中国明天说”我们将撤出我们在苏丹的活动”会真正发生什么。

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WARREN BUFFETT: Now, in terms of what the Chinese government is doing, you know, we’ve heard talk about divesture by China. If the Chinese left the Sudan tomorrow, 400,000 barrels of oil would be being produced, a good bit with the money that China has invested in the Sudan. You can’t take the assets. You can’t the refinery. You can’t take pipelines. You can’t take the oil out of it. They can sell their interest. They can sell it to other people who are doing business in the Sudan. They can sell it to the Sudanese government. But, believe me, they would probably sell it very cheap. The Sudanese government would get a bargain, or the Sudanese government might very well renegotiate terms in their favor, if they allowed a third party to buy. Believe me, you know, they would be in a position if they — assuming they could affect the transfer — and I think there’s a lack of understanding of what really would happen if China said tomorrow, “We’re going to get — we’re going to take our interest away from our activities in Sudan.”

他们必须出售它们,否则他们必须以某种方式放弃它们。就像我说的,我认为如果苏丹政府在这方面有一个还算不错的顾问,他们的财务状况可能会比现在更好。我还想提一件有趣的事情。我们目前从中国购买的商品大约比我们卖给他们的多2500亿美元,而我们给他们一些小纸片作为交换。我们对他们说:“我们想要你们的商品,你们应该努力工作,把你们的商品送给我们,我们会给你们这些小纸片,叫做美元。“两年前,中国想用其中一些美元——我们用了他们的商品——来购买一家名为优尼科的公司。优尼科是一家美国公司。他们大部分的石油和天然气生产来自美国以外——相当大部分——来自泰国、印度尼西亚等地。中国想购买这家公司,而美国众议院以395票对18票向布什总统发出信息,称允许这家公司出售将违反国家利益,而正如我所说,这家公司在美国生产的石油和天然气非常少。大部分来自世界其他地区。

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WARREN BUFFETT: They would have to sell them or they’d have to give them up one way or the other. And, like I say, I think the Sudanese government would probably end up better off financially if they had a half-decent adviser in the question than they are presently. I might mention one other thing which is kind of interesting in this. We buy about — currently about $250 billion worth more of goods from China than we sell to them, and we give them little pieces of paper in exchange. And we say to them, “We want your goods, and you should work hard and send us your goods, and we’ll send you these little piece of paper called American dollars.” Two years ago, China wanted to use some of those American dollar — we’d use their goods — to want to buy a company called Unocal. Unocal was a (inaudible) U.S. company. The majority of their production of oil and gas came from outside the United States — a substantial majority — came from places like Thailand, Indonesia. And the Chinese wanted to buy that company, and by a vote of 395 to 18, the U.S.

所以,实际上,我们在对他们重要的事情——能源——上狠狠地冷落了中国人。我还想提一下,我们从世界各地进口的能源可能是中国的四倍,尽管中国的人口是我们的四倍。所以,从某种意义上说,我们在几年前告诉中国人”想都不要想购买这家在美国本土产量很少而在海外有相当产量的美国小公司来满足你们的能源需求”。我认为,中国人在世界各地寻找能源——就像我们过去一个世纪所做的那样——在某种程度上是可以理解的。他们从苏丹购买了大量石油。他们把钱投在那里,他们将购买40万——他们并不是每天从苏丹拿走全部40万桶石油,但他们拿走了相当大的一部分。他们将在世界市场上购买这些石油。这些石油将被生产出来。收入将流向苏丹。问题在于苏丹自己保留多少,以及有多少因中国的投资而支付给中国。

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WARREN BUFFETT: House of Representatives sent their message to President Bush that it would be against the national interest to let this company be sold, which, as I say, produced very little oil and gas in the United States. Got most of it from the rest of the world. So, in effect, we snubbed the Chinese in a big way on something important to them: energy. And I might mention that we import perhaps four times as much energy from all the countries around the world as the Chinese do, even though they have four times the population. So we have, in a sense, told the Chinese a couple of years ago “Don’t even think about buying the small U.S. company with a lot of production — fair amount of production — abroad to satisfy your energy needs.” And I think it’s understandable to some extent that the Chinese are looking for energy around the world just as we have for the last century. They are buying significant amounts of oil from Sudan.

所以我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦试图告诉中国政府如何开展他们的业务完全没有任何效果。我百分之百同意苏丹正在发生的事情不应该发生,而且——世界其他地区可能也存在同样的情况,尽管程度不同。但我认为我们不能——我认为我们出售中石油的股份是不合适的。这些股份会被卖给其他人。我认为该动议的支持者可能希望股价下跌。但我们出售股票,你知道,基本上不是为了压低价格。如果中石油涨得够高,我们可能会卖出,但我们不会为了压低价格而出售,因为那样做只是给其他购买中石油股票的人一个便宜货。这根本不会改变他们可获得的资金。一位发言者提到了从中石油流向其母公司的资金。嗯,我们的子公司也有资金从威斯科流向伯克希尔。你知道,这就是在子公司中拥有主要所有权的本质——你从MiTek获得资金,从内布拉斯加家具城获得资金,我们拥有后者80%的股份。但这实际上——至少在我看来——与”是中国在与苏丹成为合作伙伴方面有政策,而不是中石油”这一事实完全无关。出售我们的股票不会改变任何事情。

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WARREN BUFFETT: They put money in there, and the — they are going to buy four or — they are going to buy that 400,000 — they’re not taking the whole 400,000 barrels a day from the Sudan, but they’re taking significant amounts. They’re going to buy that oil in the world market. That oil is going to get produced. Revenue is going to flow to the Sudan. The question is how much the Sudanese keep themselves and how much gets disbursed to the Chinese because of the investment they’ve made. So I see no effect whatsoever in Berkshire Hathaway trying to tell the Chinese government how to conduct their business. I agree a hundred percent with the fact that what is happening in the Sudan should not be happening, and I — there are other parts of the world where say some — that same situation may exist, although not to the same degree. But I don’t think you can — I don’t think it’s proper for us to divest our shares in PetroChina. They would be sold to somebody else. I think the proponents of the motion probably would like the idea that the price of the stock would go down.

如果我们有任何沟通,实际上,沟通应该针对中国政府——而且实际上这里的人有机会,因为我们这里有很多媒体——他们有机会向中国政府表达他们的观点。相信我,除非这些观点被表达给中国政府,否则向中石油表达毫无意义。我的意思是,中石油受中国政府控制,而他们不是——如果你是中石油的官员,你绝不会告诉中国政府该做什么。是他们告诉你做什么。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: But we don’t sell stocks, you know, basically to try and drive them down in price. We might sell PetroChina if it went up enough, but we would not be selling it to try and drive down the price, because all that would be doing is giving a bargain to somebody else who is buying the stock of PetroChina. It doesn’t change the funds available to them at all. One of the speakers mentioned the amount of money that goes from PetroChina up to its parent. Well, money from Wesco comes up to Berkshire from our subsidiaries. You know, that’s the nature of having a major ownership in a subsidiary is that you get money from MiTek, you get money from Nebraska Furniture Mart, which we own 80 percent of. But that really has nothing to do — in my view, at least — it has nothing to do with the fact that it is China that has a policy in respect to being partners in Sudan, and it is not PetroChina at all. Selling our stock would not change one thing.

查理·芒格:嗯,问题还在于,中国是一个快速崛起的核大国,由谁来决定联邦政府——或者美国人——应该如何应对中国?有很多理由支持让政策通过美国政府来制定,而不是由各种公民进行某种私刑式的努力。现在,我还要指出,地球上有很多问题,有很多残酷行为,而且一直都有,将来也还会有,在许多残酷的土地上生产大量的石油。没有人赞同残酷,但你能解决的问题是有限的。所以,我对伯克希尔应该成为告诉美国对华政策的工具这一想法非常怀疑。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: If we would have any communications, as a practical matter, the communications should be with Chinese government — and actually people here have had a chance because we have a lot of media here — they’ve had a chance to express their views to the Chinese government. Believe me, unless the opinions get expressed to the Chinese government, expressing them to PetroChina means nothing. I mean, PetroChina is controlled by the Chinese government, and they are not — if you were an official of PetroChina, you are not going to tell the Chinese government what to do. They are going to tell you what to do. Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the issue also is China is a rapidly rising nuclear power, and who should decide how the federal government — or how the Americans — should react to China? There’s a lot to be said for letting the policy flow through the U.S. government instead of sort of a vigilante effort of various citizens. Now, I would also point out that there’s a lot wrong all over the Earth, and there’s a lot of cruelty and there always has been, and there will always be a lot of oil produced in a lot of lands with a lot of cruelty. And nobody is in favor of cruelty, but there’s a limit to how much you can fix. And so I’m very skeptical of the idea that Berkshire should become an instrument of telling — of setting United States policies vis-a-vis China. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。查理和我有我们自己的观点,例如,关于生育自由,但我们没有伯克希尔·哈撒韦关于生育自由的政策,也不从伯克希尔·哈撒韦的资金——我们股东的资金——中提供资金,我们不资助任何与我们个人信仰相关的活动,尽管我们可能自己资助或自己公开发表意见,但我们不会仅仅因为我们相信女性应该有选择权或类似问题而进行伯克希尔·哈撒韦的资助。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Charlie and I have our own views, for example, on reproductive freedom, but we don’t have a Berkshire Hathaway policy on reproductive freedom nor do we finance from Berkshire Hathaway funds — the funds of our shareholders — we do not finance any activities that relate to our personal beliefs, although we may, obviously, fund them by ourselves or speak out on them by themselves, but we do not have a Berkshire Hathaway funding just because we believe that women should have the right to choose or questions of that sort.

查理·芒格:我认为,明智的人在这些问题上可以有不同的看法。在伯克希尔,我们不愿意单独购买和控制各种业务,但我们愿意拥有相同业务的股票。这是正确的道德界限吗?我不知道。我们尽力而为,我们做出决定,我们做出判断。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think reasonable minds can disagree on these subjects. At Berkshire, there’s all kinds of businesses we won’t buy and control individually, but we’re willing to own stock in the same businesses. Is that the correct moral line to draw? I don’t know. We do our best, and we make the decisions, and we make the calls.

沃伦·巴菲特:我想说——我真的很想知道,当优尼科问题在这里被决定时,那些我们给了很多小票子以换取他们商品的中国人在做什么,他们向优尼科的股东提出了一个完全合理的报价,185亿美元。他们想在世界各地多购买一些石油和天然气生产。而美国国会以压倒性多数说这是一件可怕的事情,我们希望美国反对它,并希望它以便宜的价格卖给雪佛龙。我真的不记得有多少人为中国购买石油公司的权利发声,就像我们几十年来在世界各地购买石油公司一样。因此,就他们可能觉得自己在这方面与世界其他地方有些疏远而言,我认为我们实际上也贡献了自己的一份力量。查理?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I would say — I wonder really whether when the Unocal question was being determined here, were the Chinese to whom we’d given lots of little tickets in exchange for taking their goods, and they came along with a perfectly decent offer to the shareholders of Unocal, 18 1/2 billion dollars. They wanted to buy a little more oil and gas production around the world. And the U.S. Congress overwhelmingly said this is a terrible thing and we want the United States to oppose it and we want it sold to Chevron for less money. And I really don’t recall a lot of people speaking up on behalf of the Chinese right to buy oil companies over here, just like we’ve bought oil companies around the world for many decades. So to the extent that they may feel themselves somewhat alienated from the rest of the world in this respect, I think we’ve actually contributed our share. Charlie?

查理·芒格:生活中的另一个复杂性在于,那个在大屠杀中失去家人的女人,我们通过加入种族灭绝者乔·斯大林来打击了那些实施种族灭绝的人。这些问题很复杂。

原文

CHARLIE MUNGER: Another thing in the complexity of life, the woman who lost her family to the Holocaust, we clobbered the people that committed that genocide by joining genocidal Joe Stalin. These issues are complicated.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。如果有任何股东想就此事亲自投票或更改他们的代理投票权,我们有监票员。请举手。如果没有了,阿米克小姐,你准备好报告了吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. If there are any shareholders that want to vote in person in this — on this — matter or to change their proxies, we have monitors. If you just raise your hand. And if there are none of those, Miss Amick, are you ready to give your report?

贝基·阿米克:我的报告已准备好。代理投票持有者根据截至上周四晚上收到的代理投票结果,对该动议投了15,740票赞成,830,598票反对。由于反对该动议的票数超过了所有已发行的A类和B类股票相关票数的多数,该动议未获通过。根据特拉华州法律要求的投票精确计数的认证将交给秘书,并附入本次会议的记录中。

原文

BECKI AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 15,740 votes for the motion and 830,598 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes related to all Class A and Class B shares outstanding, the motion has failed. Certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克女士。该提案未获通过。

35. 正式会议休会

沃伦·巴菲特:在休会之前,还有其他人要在本次会议上提出其他事项吗?如果没有,我请斯科特先生向会议提出动议。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Ms. Amick. The proposal fails.

35. Formal meeting adjourns

WARREN BUFFETT: Does anyone have any further business to come before this meeting before we adjourn? If not, I recognize Mr. Scott to place a motion before the meeting.

沃尔特·斯科特:我提议本次会议休会。

原文

WALTER SCOTT: I move this meeting be adjourned.

沃伦·巴菲特:有附议吗?

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Is there a second?

声音:附议。

原文

VOICE: Second.

沃伦·巴菲特:所有赞成的人说”同意”。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: All those in favor say “aye.”

声音:同意。

原文

VOICES: Aye.

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