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致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

2011年,我们的A类股和B类股每股账面价值均增长了4.6%。在过去的47年里(即自现任管理层接手以来),账面价值已从19美元增长至99,860美元,年复合增长率为19.8%。*

*本报告使用的所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔的A类股。B类股的数据为A类股所示数据的1/1500。

查理·芒格,伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人,与我本人对公司2011年的进展感到满意。以下是亮点:

原文

The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 4.6% in 2011. Over the last 47 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $99,860, a rate of 19.8% compounded annually.*

* All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.

Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner, and I feel good about the company’s progress during 2011. Here are the highlights:

原文
  • The primary job of a Board of Directors is to see that the right people are running the business and to be sure that the next generation of leaders is identified and ready to take over tomorrow. I have been on 19 corporate boards, and Berkshire’s directors are at the top of the list in the time and diligence they have devoted to succession planning. What’s more, their efforts have paid off.

    As 2011 started, Todd Combs joined us as an investment manager, and shortly after yearend Ted Weschler came aboard. Both of these men have outstanding investment skills and a deep commitment to Berkshire. Each will be handling a few billion dollars in 2012, but they have the brains, judgment and character to manage our entire portfolio when Charlie and I are no longer running Berkshire.

    Your Board is equally enthusiastic about my successor as CEO, an individual to whom they have had a great deal of exposure and whose managerial and human qualities they admire. (We have two superb back-up candidates as well.) When a transfer of responsibility is required, it will be seamless, and Berkshire’s prospects will remain bright. More than 98% of my net worth is in Berkshire stock, all of which will go to various philanthropies. Being so heavily concentrated in one stock defies conventional wisdom. But I’m fine with this arrangement, knowing both the quality and diversity of the businesses we own and the caliber of the people who manage them. With these assets, my successor will enjoy a running start. Do not, however, infer from this discussion that Charlie and I are going anywhere; we continue to be in excellent health, and we love what we do.

原文
  • On September 16th we acquired Lubrizol, a worldwide producer of additives and other specialty chemicals. The company has had an outstanding record since James Hambrick became CEO in 2004, with pre-tax profits increasing from $147 million to $1,085 million. Lubrizol will have many opportunities for “bolt-on” acquisitions in the specialty chemical field. Indeed, we’ve already agreed to three, costing $493 million. James is a disciplined buyer and a superb operator. Charlie and I are eager to expand his managerial domain.
原文
  • Our major businesses did well last year. In fact, each of our five largest non-insurance companies — BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group and MidAmerican Energy — delivered record operating earnings. In aggregate these businesses earned more than $9 billion pre-tax in 2011. Contrast that to seven years ago, when we owned only one of the five, MidAmerican, whose pre-tax earnings were $393 million. Unless the economy weakens in 2012, each of our fabulous five should again set a record, with aggregate earnings comfortably topping $10 billion. * In total, our entire string of operating companies spent $8.2 billion for property, plant and equipment in 2011, smashing our previous record by more than $2 billion. About 95% of these outlays were made in the U.S., a fact that may surprise those who believe our country lacks investment opportunities. We welcome projects abroad, but expect the overwhelming majority of Berkshire’s future capital commitments to be in America. In 2012, these expenditures will again set a record.
我们将这些持仓视为优秀业务中的合伙权益,而非根据短期前景买卖的有价证券。然而,我们应占的这些公司收益远未完全反映在我们的利润中;只有我们从这些公司收到的股息才会出现在我们的财务报告中。然而,随着时间的推移,归属于我们所有权的这些公司的未分配利润对我们极为重要。因为它们将被用于多种方式,以增加被投资公司未来的收益和股息。它们也可能被用于股票回购,这将增加我们在公司未来收益中的份额。
如果我们去年全年都持有现有的仓位,我们从“四大”获得的股息将达到8.62亿美元。这将是伯克希尔损益表中报告的全部数字。然而,我们在这四家公司中的收益份额将大得多:33亿美元。查理和我相信,我们账面上未报告的24亿美元为伯克希尔创造了至少等值的价值,因为它推动了未来多年的收益增长。我们预计这四家公司的总收益——以及它们的股息——将在2012年以及此后很长一段时间内几乎每年都增加。十年后,我们目前对这四家公司的持股很可能带来70亿美元的收益,其中20亿美元的股息将归我们所有。
我已经没有好消息了。以下是2011年损害我们的一些事态发展:
原文
  • Our insurance operations continued their delivery of costless capital that funds a myriad of other opportunities. This business produces “float” — money that doesn’t belong to us, but that we get to invest for Berkshire’s benefit. And if we pay out less in losses and expenses than we receive in premiums, we additionally earn an underwriting profit, meaning the float costs us less than nothing. Though we are sure to have underwriting losses from time to time, we’ve now had nine consecutive years of underwriting profits, totaling about $17 billion. Over the same nine years our float increased from $41 billion to its current record of $70 billion.

Insurance has been good to us. * Finally, we made two major investments in marketable securities: (1) a $5 billion 6% preferred stock of Bank of America that came with warrants allowing us to buy 700 million common shares at $7.14 per share any time before September 2, 2021; and (2) 63.9 million shares of IBM that cost us $10.9 billion. Counting IBM, we now have large ownership interests in four exceptional companies: 13.0% of American Express, 8.8% of Coca-Cola, 5.5% of IBM and 7.6% of Wells Fargo. (We also, of course, have many smaller, but important, positions.)

We view these holdings as partnership interests in wonderful businesses, not as marketable securities to be bought or sold based on their near-term prospects. Our share of their earnings, however, are far from fully reflected in our earnings; only the dividends we receive from these businesses show up in our financial reports. Over time, though, the undistributed earnings of these companies that are attributable to our ownership are of huge importance to us. That's because they will be used in a variety of ways to increase future earnings and dividends of the investee. They may also be devoted to stock repurchases, which will increase our share of the company's future earnings.
Had we owned our present positions throughout last year, our dividends from the "Big Four" would have been $862 million. That's all that would have been reported in Berkshire's income statement. Our share of this quartet's earnings, however, would have been far greater: $3.3 billion. Charlie and I believe that the $2.4 billion that goes unreported on our books creates at least that amount of value for Berkshire as it fuels earnings gains in future years. We expect the combined earnings of the four — and their dividends as well — to increase in 2012 and, for that matter, almost every year for a long time to come. A decade from now, our current holdings of the four companies might well account for earnings of $7 billion, of which $2 billion in dividends would come to us.
I've run out of good news. Here are some developments that hurt us during 2011:
原文
  • A few years back, I spent about $2 billion buying several bond issues of Energy Future Holdings, an electric utility operation serving portions of Texas. That was a mistake — a big mistake. In large measure, the company’s prospects were tied to the price of natural gas, which tanked shortly after our purchase and remains depressed. Though we have annually received interest payments of about $102 million since our purchase, the company’s ability to pay will soon be exhausted unless gas prices rise substantially. We wrote down our investment by $1 billion in 2010 and by an additional $390 million last year.

    At yearend, we carried the bonds at their market value of $878 million. If gas prices remain at present levels, we will likely face a further loss, perhaps in an amount that will virtually wipe out our current carrying value. Conversely, a substantial increase in gas prices might allow us to recoup some, or even all, of our write-down. However things turn out, I totally miscalculated the gain/loss probabilities when I purchased the bonds. In tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman.

原文
  • Three large and very attractive fixed-income investments were called away from us by their issuers in 2011. Swiss Re, Goldman Sachs and General Electric paid us an aggregate of $12.8 billion to redeem securities that were producing about $1.2 billion of pre-tax earnings for Berkshire. That’s a lot of income to replace, though our Lubrizol purchase did offset most of it.
原文
  • Last year, I told you that “a housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so.” I was dead wrong. We have five businesses whose results are significantly influenced by housing activity. The connection is direct at Clayton Homes, which is the largest producer of homes in the country, accounting for about 7% of those constructed during 2011.

    Additionally, Acme Brick, Shaw (carpet), Johns Manville (insulation) and MiTek (building products, primarily connector plates used in roofing) are all materially affected by construction activity. In aggregate, our five housing-related companies had pre-tax profits of $513 million in 2011. That’s similar to 2010 but down from $1.8 billion in 2006.

    Housing will come back — you can be sure of that. Over time, the number of housing units necessarily matches the number of households (after allowing for a normal level of vacancies). For a period of years prior to 2008, however, America added more housing units than households. Inevitably, we ended up with far too many units and the bubble popped with a violence that shook the entire economy. That created still another problem for housing: Early in a recession, household formations slow, and in 2009 the decrease was dramatic.

    That devastating supply/demand equation is now reversed: Every day we are creating more households than housing units. People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over. And while “doubling-up” may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure.

    At our current annual pace of 600,000 housing starts — considerably less than the number of new households being formed — buyers and renters are sopping up what’s left of the old oversupply. (This process will run its course at different rates around the country; the supply-demand situation varies widely by locale.) While this healing takes place, however, our housing-related companies sputter, employing only 43,315 people compared to 58,769 in 2006. This hugely important sector of the economy, which includes not only construction but everything that feeds off of it, remains in a depression of its own. I believe this is the major reason a recovery in employment has so severely lagged the steady and substantial comeback we have seen in almost all other sectors of our economy.

    Wise monetary and fiscal policies play an important role in tempering recessions, but these tools don’t create households nor eliminate excess housing units. Fortunately, demographics and our market system will restore the needed balance — probably before long. When that day comes, we will again build one million or more residential units annually. I believe pundits will be surprised at how far unemployment drops once that happens. They will then reawake to what has been true since 1776: America’s best days lie ahead.

内在商业价值

查理和我通过伯克希尔每股内在商业价值的增长率来衡量我们的表现。如果我们的增长随时间推移超过了标普500指数,我们就挣到了工资。如果没有,那么任何价格都是过高支付。

我们无法精确确定内在价值。但我们有一个有用的、尽管被大大低估了的替代指标:每股账面价值。这个指标对大多数公司毫无意义。然而,在伯克希尔,账面价值非常粗略地追踪商业价值。这是因为伯克希尔内在价值超过账面价值的数额不会每年剧烈波动,尽管在大多数年份它会增加。随着时间的推移,这种差异在绝对数值上可能会变得越来越大,但在百分比基础上却保持相当稳定,因为商业价值/账面价值方程式的分子和分母都在增加。

我们一直强调,在股市表现不佳的年份,我们的账面价值表现几乎肯定会超过标普500指数,而在强劲上涨的年份则几乎肯定落后。考验在于我们长期的表现。去年的年报包括一个表格,列出了自1965年我们接管伯克希尔以来的42个五年期间(即1965-69年、1966-70年等)的结果。所有这些都显示我们的账面价值击败了标普指数,并且我们的连胜纪录持续到2007-11年。然而,如果标普500指数取得一个五年连涨(在我写这篇文章时,它可能正在这样做),它几乎肯定会断裂。

原文

Intrinsic Business Value

Charlie and I measure our performance by the rate of gain in Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic business value. If our gain over time outstrips the performance of the S&P 500, we have earned our paychecks. If it doesn’t, we are overpaid at any price.

We have no way to pinpoint intrinsic value. But we do have a useful, though considerably understated, proxy for it: per-share book value. This yardstick is meaningless at most companies. At Berkshire, however, book value very roughly tracks business values. That’s because the amount by which Berkshire’s intrinsic value exceeds book value does not swing wildly from year to year, though it increases in most years. Over time, the divergence will likely become ever more substantial in absolute terms, remaining reasonably steady, however, on a percentage basis as both the numerator and denominator of the business-value/book-value equation increase.

We’ve regularly emphasized that our book-value performance is almost certain to outpace the S&P 500 in a bad year for the stock market and just as certainly will fall short in a strong up-year. The test is how we do over time. Last year’s annual report included a table laying out results for the 42 five-year periods since we took over at Berkshire in 1965 (i.e., 1965-69, 1966-70, etc.). All showed our book value beating the S&P, and our string held for 2007-11. It will almost certainly snap, though, if the S&P 500 should put together a five-year winning streak (which it may well be on its way to doing as I write this).

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去年我还附了两张表格,列出了帮助您估算我们每股内在价值的关键量化要素。这里我不再重复完整讨论;您可以在第99-100页找到它。为了更新那里显示的表格,我们在2011年的每股投资增长了4%,达到98,366美元,而来自保险和投资以外业务的每股税前收益增长了18%,达到6,990美元。

查理和我都喜欢看到这两个领域的增长,但我们的主要重点是建立运营收益。随着时间的推移,我们目前拥有的企业应该会增加它们的总收益,并且我们也希望购买一些大型业务,这将给我们带来进一步的推动。我们现在有八家子公司,如果它们是独立公司的话,每家都会入选《财富》500强。这样只剩下492家要去争取了。我的任务很明确,我正在寻觅之中。

原文

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I also included two tables last year that set forth the key quantitative ingredients that will help you estimate our per-share intrinsic value. I won’t repeat the full discussion here; you can find it reproduced on pages 99-100. To update the tables shown there, our per-share investments in 2011 increased 4% to $98,366, and our pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 18% to $6,990 per share.

Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our primary focus is on building operating earnings. Over time, the businesses we currently own should increase their aggregate earnings, and we hope also to purchase some large operations that will give us a further boost. We now have eight subsidiaries that would each be included in the Fortune 500 were they stand-alone companies. That leaves only 492 to go. My task is clear, and I’m on the prowl.

股份回购

去年九月,我们宣布伯克希尔将以最高相当于账面价值110%的价格回购其股票。我们仅入市了几天——购买了6700万美元的股票——价格就超过了我们的限制。尽管如此,股份回购的普遍重要性表明我应该花点时间讨论这个话题。

当两个条件满足时,查理和我赞成回购:第一,公司有充足资金满足业务的运营和流动性需求;第二,其股票出售价格相对于保守计算的公司内在商业价值存在大幅折让。

我们目睹了许多未能通过我们第二项测试的回购案例。当然,有时违规行为——甚至是严重的——是无意的;许多CEO从不停止相信他们的股票便宜。在其他情况下,似乎有理由得出不那么良性的结论。仅仅说回购是为了抵消股票发行的稀释,或者仅仅因为公司有超额现金,是不够的。除非股票是以低于内在价值的价格购买的,否则现有股东会受到伤害。资本配置的首要法则——无论资金是用于收购还是股份回购——是在一个价格上明智的决定在另一个价格上就是愚蠢的。(一位在回购决策中始终强调价格/价值因素的首席执行官是摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙;我建议您阅读他的年度信函。)

当伯克希尔股票以远低于内在价值的价格出售时,查理和我心情复杂。我们喜欢为持续股东赚钱,没有比购买一项我们至少知道值x美元的资产——我们自己的股票——而花费低于这个价值,比如0.9x、0.8x甚至更低更稳妥的方法了。(正如我们的一位董事所说,这就像在桶里射鱼,桶里的水被排干,鱼停止扑腾之后。)尽管如此,我们并不乐于以折扣价让合伙人套现,即使这样做可能让卖出的股东获得比没有我们出价时略高的价格。因此,当我们购买时,我们希望那些退出的合伙人充分了解他们所出售资产的价值。

在我们的限制价格,即账面价值的110%时,回购显然增加了伯克希尔的每股内在价值。我们购买得越多、越便宜,持续股东获得的收益就越大。因此,如果有机会,我们可能会在我们设定的价格限制或更低的价格积极回购股票。但您应该知道,我们没有兴趣支持股价,并且我们的出价在特别疲弱的市场中会减弱。如果我们的现金等价物持有量低于200亿美元,我们也不会购买股票。在伯克希尔,毋庸置疑的财务实力高于一切。

原文

Share Repurchases

Last September, we announced that Berkshire would repurchase its shares at a price of up to 110% of book value. We were in the market for only a few days — buying $67 million of stock — before the price advanced beyond our limit. Nonetheless, the general importance of share repurchases suggests I should focus for a bit on the subject.

Charlie and I favor repurchases when two conditions are met: first, a company has ample funds to take care of the operational and liquidity needs of its business; second, its stock is selling at a material discount to the company’s intrinsic business value, conservatively calculated.

We have witnessed many bouts of repurchasing that failed our second test. Sometimes, of course, infractions — even serious ones — are innocent; many CEOs never stop believing their stock is cheap. In other instances, a less benign conclusion seems warranted. It doesn’t suffice to say that repurchases are being made to offset the dilution from stock issuances or simply because a company has excess cash. Continuing shareholders are hurt unless shares are purchased below intrinsic value. The first law of capital allocation — whether the money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases — is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another. (One CEO who always stresses the price/value factor in repurchase decisions is Jamie Dimon at J.P. Morgan; I recommend that you read his annual letter.)

Charlie and I have mixed emotions when Berkshire shares sell well below intrinsic value. We like making money for continuing shareholders, and there is no surer way to do that than by buying an asset — our own stock — that we know to be worth at least x for less than that — for .9x, .8x or even lower. (As one of our directors says, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel, after the barrel has been drained and the fish have quit flopping.) Nevertheless, we don’t enjoy cashing out partners at a discount, even though our doing so may give the selling shareholders a slightly higher price than they would receive if our bid was absent. When we are buying, therefore, we want those exiting partners to be fully informed about the value of the assets they are selling.

At our limit price of 110% of book value, repurchases clearly increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value. And the more and the cheaper we buy, the greater the gain for continuing shareholders. Therefore, if given the opportunity, we will likely repurchase stock aggressively at our price limit or lower. You should know, however, that we have no interest in supporting the stock and that our bids will fade in particularly weak markets. Nor will we buy shares if our cash-equivalent holdings are below $20 billion. At Berkshire, financial strength that is unquestionable takes precedence over all else.

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关于回购的讨论给了我一个机会来谈谈许多投资者对股价变化的非理性反应。当伯克希尔购买一家正在回购股票的公司的股票时,我们希望两件事发生:第一,我们通常希望该业务的收益在未来很长一段时间内以良好的速度增长;第二,我们也希望该股票在市场上表现不佳很长一段时间。第二个观点的推论是:对我们所持股票“唱多”——如果有效的话——实际上会对伯克希尔造成损害,而不是像评论员通常假设的那样有帮助。

让我们以IBM为例。正如所有商业观察家所知,CEO郭士纳和彭明盛在将IBM从二十年前的濒临破产带到今天的卓越地位方面做了出色的工作。他们的运营成就确实非凡。

但他们的财务管理同样出色,尤其是在近年来公司财务灵活性改善之后。事实上,我想不出还有哪家大公司有更好的财务管理,这种技能大大增加了IBM股东享有的收益。公司明智地使用了债务,几乎完全用现金进行了增值收购,并积极回购自己的股票。

今天,IBM有11.6亿股流通股,我们拥有其中约6390万股,占5.5%。自然,未来五年公司收益如何对我们至关重要。除此之外,公司可能会在那段时间花费约500亿美元用于回购股票。我们今天的测验题:在此期间,像伯克希尔这样的长期股东应该为什么而欢呼?

我不让你们猜测了。我们应该希望IBM的股价在未来五年低迷

让我们算算账。如果IBM的股价在此期间平均为200美元,公司将用其500亿美元收购2.5亿股。因此,流通股将剩下9.1亿股,我们将拥有公司约7%的股份。相反,如果股票在五年期间的平均售价为300美元,IBM将只收购1.67亿股。五年后,这将留下约9.9亿股流通股,其中我们将拥有6.5%。

如果IBM在第五年赚了200亿美元,那么在股价较低的“令人失望”情景下,我们应占的收益将比在较高价格情景下多出整整1亿美元。在以后的某个时点,我们的股票价值可能会比“高价格”回购情景下多出大约15亿美元。

逻辑很简单:如果你未来将是股票的净买家,无论是用你自己的钱直接购买,还是间接通过你拥有一家正在回购股票的公司来购买,当股价上涨时你会受到伤害。当股价暴跌时你会受益。然而,情绪常常使问题复杂化:大多数人,包括那些未来将是净买家的人,看到股价上涨就感到安慰。这些股东就像一位通勤者,仅仅因为他的油箱里有一天的油量,就对油价上涨感到高兴。

查理和我并不期望能让你们中的许多人认同我们的思维方式——我们观察了足够的人类行为,知道那是徒劳的——但我们确实希望你们了解我们的个人计算方式。在此,需要坦白:在我早期,我也曾因为市场上涨而高兴。然后我读了本·格雷厄姆《聪明的投资者》的第八章,这一章论述了投资者应如何看待股价波动。刹那间,我眼前的迷雾消散了,低价成为了我的朋友。拿起那本书是我一生中最幸运的时刻之一。

最终,我们IBM投资成功与否将主要取决于其未来的收益。但一个重要的次要因素将是公司用可能投入这项活动的巨额资金回购了多少股份。如果回购将IBM流通股减少到6390万股,我将放弃我著名的节俭,给伯克希尔的员工放一个带薪假期。

原文

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This discussion of repurchases offers me the chance to address the irrational reaction of many investors to changes in stock prices. When Berkshire buys stock in a company that is repurchasing shares, we hope for two events: First, we have the normal hope that earnings of the business will increase at a good clip for a long time to come; and second, we also hope that the stock underperforms in the market for a long time as well. A corollary to this second point: “Talking our book” about a stock we own — were that to be effective — would actually be harmful to Berkshire, not helpful as commentators customarily assume.

Let’s use IBM as an example. As all business observers know, CEOs Lou Gerstner and Sam Palmisano did a superb job in moving IBM from near-bankruptcy twenty years ago to its prominence today. Their operational accomplishments were truly extraordinary.

But their financial management was equally brilliant, particularly in recent years as the company’s financial flexibility improved. Indeed, I can think of no major company that has had better financial management, a skill that has materially increased the gains enjoyed by IBM shareholders. The company has used debt wisely, made value-adding acquisitions almost exclusively for cash and aggressively repurchased its own stock.

Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%. Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us. Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?

I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.

Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire 250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after five years, of which we would own 6.5%.

If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100 million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $1½ billion more than if the “high-price” repurchase scenario had taken place.

The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.

Charlie and I don’t expect to win many of you over to our way of thinking — we’ve observed enough human behavior to know the futility of that — but we do want you to be aware of our personal calculus. And here a confession is in order: In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life.

In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday.

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现在,让我们审视一下我们运营的四个主要部分。每一个的资产负债表和损益表特征都与其他部分截然不同。因此,将它们混为一谈会妨碍分析。所以我们把它们作为四项独立的业务来呈现,查理和我也正是这样看待它们的。由于我们可能从你们中的一些人手中回购伯克希尔的股票,我们将在每一部分谈谈我们对内在价值与账面价值相比的看法。

原文

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Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. Lumping them together therefore impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them. Because we may be repurchasing Berkshire shares from some of you, we will offer our thoughts in each section as to how intrinsic value compares to carrying value.

保险

首先让我们看看保险,这是伯克希尔的核心业务,也是多年来推动我们扩张的引擎。

财产意外险(“P/C”)保险公司先收取保费,然后支付索赔。在极端情况下,例如某些工伤赔偿事故,支付可能延续数十年。这种先收款后付款的模式让我们持有大量资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——这些资金最终将支付给他人。与此同时,我们可以为伯克希尔的利益投资这些浮存金。尽管个别保单和索赔来来去去,但我们持有的浮存金金额相对于保费量而言保持非常稳定。因此,随着我们业务的增长,我们的浮存金也在增长。我们的增长情况如下表所示:

年份浮存金(百万美元)
197039
1980237
19901,632
200027,871
201065,832
201170,571

我们的浮存金不太可能从现在水平增长太多——甚至根本不会增长。这主要是因为相对于我们的保费量,我们已经拥有了超大规模。我要补充一点,即使浮存金下降,也几乎肯定会非常缓慢,因此不会对我们造成任何异常的资金需求。

如果我们的保费超过我们的费用和最终损失的总和,我们就录得承保利润,这会增加我们的浮存金所产生的投资收益。当这种利润发生时,我们享有无成本资金的使用权——而且更好的是,我们还会因持有它而获得报酬。不幸的是,所有保险公司都希望达到这一令人高兴的结果,这造成了激烈的竞争,在大多数年份里竞争如此激烈,以至于导致整个P/C行业出现重大的承保亏损。例如,州立农业保险,迄今为止美国最大的保险公司,也是一家管理良好的公司,在过去十一年中有八年出现承保亏损。保险业有很多亏损的方式,并且该行业在创造新的亏损方式方面足智多谋。

正如本报告第一部分所述,我们现在已经连续九年实现承保盈利,期间的收益总计170亿美元。我相信,我们很可能在未来大多数——尽管肯定不是全部——年份继续实现承保盈利。如果我们做到这一点,我们的浮存金将好于无成本。我们将从中获利,就像某方将706亿美元存入我们这里,支付我们持有它的费用,然后让我们将其资金用于我们自己的利益。

那么,这种有吸引力的浮存金如何影响内在价值计算呢?在计算伯克希尔的账面价值时,浮存金被全额作为负债扣除,就好像我们明天必须支付它并且无法补充一样。但这是看待浮存金的错误方式,它应该被视为一笔循环基金。如果浮存金既无成本又长期存在,那么这项负债的真实价值远低于会计负债。

部分抵消这一被高估的负债的是,归属于我们保险公司的155亿美元“商誉”,作为资产包含在账面价值中。实际上,这笔商誉代表了我们为保险业务的浮存金生成能力所支付的价格。然而,商誉的成本与其真实价值毫无关系。如果一家保险业务产生大量且持续的承保亏损,那么归属于它的任何商誉资产都应被视为毫无价值,无论其原始成本如何。

幸运的是,伯克希尔的情况并非如此。查理和我认为我们保险商誉的真实经济价值——我们为购买类似质量的浮存金愿意支付的价格——远远超过其历史账面价值。我们浮存金的价值是——一个巨大的原因——我们相信伯克希尔的内在商业价值大大超过账面价值的原因之一。

让我再次强调,无成本浮存金并非整个P/C行业可以预期的结果:我们认为保险界没有太多“伯克希尔质量”的浮存金。在大多数年份,包括2011年,该行业的保费都不足以覆盖索赔加上费用。因此,几十年来,该行业的有形股本整体回报率远低于美国工业的平均回报率,这种糟糕的表现几乎肯定会持续下去。伯克希尔卓越的经济状况之所以存在,仅仅是因为我们有一些出色的管理者在经营一些非凡的保险业务。让我告诉你们主要的业务部门。

原文

Insurance

Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has propelled our expansion over the years.

Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums — money we call “float” — that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire’s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains remarkably stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows:

YearFloat*(in $* millions)
1970$ 39
1980237
19901,632
200027,871
201065,832
201170,571

It’s unlikely that our float will grow much — if at all — from its current level. That’s mainly because we already have an outsized amount relative to our premium volume. Were there to be a decline in float, I will add, it would almost certainly be very gradual and therefore impose no unusual demand for funds on us.

If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit occurs, we enjoy the use of free money — and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company besides, has incurred an underwriting loss in eight of the last eleven years. There are a lot of ways to lose money in insurance, and the industry is resourceful in creating new ones.

As noted in the first section of this report, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for nine consecutive years, our gain for the period having totaled $17 billion. I believe it likely that we will continue to underwrite profitably in most — though certainly not all — future years. If we accomplish that, our float will be better than cost-free. We will profit just as we would if some party deposited $70.6 billion with us, paid us a fee for holding its money and then let us invest its funds for our own benefit.

So how does this attractive float affect intrinsic value calculations? Our float is deducted in full as a liability in calculating Berkshire’s book value, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and were unable to replenish it. But that’s an incorrect way to view float, which should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. If float is both costless and long-enduring, the true value of this liability is far lower than the accounting liability.

Partially offsetting this overstated liability is $15.5 billion of “goodwill” attributable to our insurance companies that is included in book value as an asset. In effect, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. If an insurance business produces large and sustained underwriting losses, any goodwill asset attributable to it should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost.

Fortunately, that’s not the case at Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill — what we would pay to purchase float of similar quality — to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. The value of our float is one reason — a huge reason — why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds book value.

Let me emphasize once again that cost-free float is not an outcome to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: We don’t think there is much “Berkshire-quality” float existing in the insurance world. In most years, including 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units.

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首先按浮存金规模排序的是伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团,由阿吉特·贾殷管理。阿吉特承保其他公司既没有意愿也没有资本承担的风险。他的操作结合了承保能力、速度、果断性,以及最重要的是,智慧,这在保险业中是独一无二的。然而,他从不让伯克希尔暴露于与我们的资源不相称的风险之下。事实上,在这方面我们比大多数大型保险公司保守。例如,如果保险业因某场特大灾难遭受2500亿美元的损失——约为其曾面临的最大损失的三倍——由于拥有多种收益来源,伯克希尔整体上很可能在当年录得适度的利润。与此同时,所有其他主要保险公司和再保险公司都将处于严重亏损状态,有些将面临破产。

自1985年白手起家以来,阿吉特创建了一项拥有340亿美元浮存金和显著承保利润的保险业务,这一成就是任何其他保险公司的CEO都望尘莫及的。凭借这些成就,他为伯克希尔的价值增加了数百亿美元。查理很乐意用我交换第二个阿吉特。可惜,没有第二个。

原文

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First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, run by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most importantly, brains in a manner that is unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, we are far more conservative in that respect than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe — a loss about triple anything it has ever faced — Berkshire as a whole would likely record a moderate profit for the year because of its many streams of earnings. Concurrently, all other major insurers and reinsurers would be far in the red, and some would face insolvency.

From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $34 billion and significant underwriting profits, a feat that no CEO of any other insurer has come close to matching. By these accomplishments, he has added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire. Charlie would gladly trade me for a second Ajit. Alas, there is none.

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我们还有另一家保险巨头——通用再保险,由泰德·蒙特罗斯管理。

归根结底,一个健全的保险业务需要遵守四项纪律。它必须(1)理解所有可能导致保单产生损失的风险敞口;(2)保守估计任何风险敞口实际导致损失的可能性以及如果发生损失的可能成本;(3)设定一个保费,在覆盖预期的损失成本和运营费用后,平均而言能带来利润;(4)如果无法获得适当的保费,愿意放弃。

许多保险公司通过了前三项测试,但在第四项上失败了。他们就是无法拒绝竞争对手正在积极承揽的业务。那句老话,“其他人都在做,所以我们也必须做”,在任何业务中都会带来麻烦,但在保险业中尤其如此。事实上,一个好的核保人需要一个独立思考的心态,就像那位在开车回家途中接到妻子电话的老年人一样。“阿尔伯特,小心点,”她警告说,“我刚从广播里听到,有人在州际公路上逆行。”“梅布尔,他们只知道一半情况,”阿尔伯特回答说,“不是一辆车,是成百上千辆。”

泰德遵守了所有四条保险戒律,这一点在他的业绩中得到了体现。在他的领导下,通用再保险的巨额浮存金已经变得比无成本更好,我们预计平均而言,它将继续如此。在我们收购后的头几年,通用再保险是一个大麻烦。现在它是一笔财富。

原文

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We have another insurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross.

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively evaluate the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that their competitors are eagerly writing. That old line, “The other guy is doing it so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance. Indeed, a good underwriter needs an independent mindset akin to that of the senior citizen who received a call from his wife while driving home. “Albert, be careful,” she warned, “I just heard on the radio that there’s a car going the wrong way down the Interstate.” “Mabel, they don’t know the half of it,” replied Albert, “It’s not just one car, there are hundreds of them.”

Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, it will continue to be. In the first few years after we acquired it, General Re was a major headache. Now it’s a treasure.

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最后,还有GEICO,这是我61年前初涉保险业的公司。GEICO由托尼·奈斯利管理,他18岁加入公司,并在2011年完成了50年的服务。

GEICO备受羡慕的业绩来自于托尼对一个卓越且几乎无法复制的商业模式的出色执行。在托尼担任CEO的18年里,我们的市场份额从2.0%增长到9.3%。如果它保持不变——就像他接手前十多年那样——我们现在的保费量将是33亿美元,而不是我们在2011年达到的154亿美元。托尼和他的同事创造的额外价值是伯克希尔内在价值超过账面价值的主要因素。

还有超过90%的汽车保险市场份额留给GEICO去攫取。不要打赌托尼未来不能年复一年地获取其中的份额。我们的低成本允许低价格,每天都有更多的美国人发现,当壁虎鼓励他们访问GEICO.com获取报价时,是在帮他们一个忙。(我们的壁虎还有另一个讨人喜欢的品质:与花钱代表其他保险公司的人类代言人不同,我们的小家伙没有中介。)

原文

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Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 61 years ago. GEICO is run by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 50 years of service in 2011.

GEICO’s much-envied record comes from Tony’s brilliant execution of a superb and almostimpossible-to-replicate business model. During Tony’s 18-year tenure as CEO, our market share has grown from 2.0% to 9.3%. If it had instead remained static — as it had for more than a decade before he took over — our premium volume would now be $3.3 billion rather than the $15.4 billion we attained in 2011. The extra value created by Tony and his associates is a major element in Berkshire’s excess of intrinsic value over book value.

There is still more than 90% of the auto-insurance market left for GEICO to rake in. Don’t bet against Tony acquiring chunks of it year after year in the future. Our low costs permit low prices, and every day more Americans discover that the Gecko is doing them a favor when he urges them to visit GEICO.com for a quote. (Our lizard has another endearing quality: Unlike human spokesmen or spokeswomen who expensively represent other insurance companies, our little fellow has no agent.)

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除了我们的三大保险业务外,我们还拥有一组较小的公司,其中大多数在保险世界的偏僻角落经营。总体而言,它们的业绩一直盈利,并且它们提供的浮存金相当可观。查理和我珍视这些公司及其管理者。

年底,我们收购了普林斯顿保险公司,这是一家新泽西州的医疗事故保险承保商。这项补强式交易扩展了蒂姆·凯纳西的管理领域,他是我们总部位于印第安纳州的医疗事故保险公司Medical Protective的杰出CEO。普林斯顿带来了超过6亿美元的浮存金,该金额包含在下表中。

以下是我们的财产意外险和人寿保险业务所有四个板块的记录:

保险业务承保利润(百万美元)年底浮存金
2011201020112010
BH再保险(714)17633,72830,370
通用再保险14445219,71420,049
GEICO5761,11711,16910,272
其他主要2422685,9605,141
2482,01370,57165,832

在大型保险业务中,伯克希尔给我留下的印象是世界上最好的。

原文

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In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them plying their trade in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, their results have consistently been profitable and the float they provide us is substantial. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers.

At yearend, we acquired Princeton Insurance, a New Jersey writer of medical malpractice policies. This bolt-on transaction expands the managerial domain of Tim Kenesey, the star CEO of Medical Protective, our Indiana-based med-mal insurer. Princeton brings with it more than $600 million of float, an amount that is included in the following table.

Here is the record of all four segments of our property-casualty and life insurance businesses:

Underwriting ProfitYearend**Float
(in millions)
Insurance**Operations2011201020112010
BH Reinsurance$(714)$ 176$33,728$30,370
General Re14445219,71420,049
GEICO5761,11711,16910,272
Other Primary2422685,9605,141
$ 248$2,013$70,571$65,832

Among large insurance operations, Berkshire’s impresses me as the best in the world.

受监管的资本密集型业务

我们有两家非常大的企业,BNSF和中美能源,它们具有重要的共同特征,使其与我们许多其他业务区分开来。因此,我们在本信中为它们分配了独立的板块,并在我们的GAAP资产负债表和损益表中单独列出它们的合并财务数据。

两家公司的一个关键特征是它们对非常长期的受监管资产进行巨额投资,这些资产部分由大量长期债务提供资金,而这些债务并非由伯克希尔担保。我们的信用不是必需的:两家公司都有即使在糟糕的商业条件下也能充分覆盖其利息需求的盈利能力。例如,在2011年经济不那么强劲的情况下,BNSF的利息覆盖倍数为9.5倍。与此同时,在中美能源,两个关键因素确保了其在任何情况下偿还债务的能力:我们独家提供基本服务所固有的盈利稳定性,以及收益来源的多样性,这使其免受任何单一监管机构行动的影响。

按吨英里计算,铁路运输了美国城际货运的42%,而BNSF的运输量超过任何其他铁路——约占行业总量的37%。简单计算一下就会知道,美国所有城际货运吨英里中约有15%是由BNSF运输的。将铁路描述为我们经济的循环系统毫不夸张。你们的铁路是最主要的动脉。

所有这些都给我们带来了巨大的责任。我们必须万无一失地维护和改善我们23,000英里的轨道以及13,000座桥梁、80条隧道、6,900台机车和78,600节货车车厢。这项工作要求我们在所有经济情景下拥有充足的财务资源,并拥有能够立即有效应对自然变化的人力才能,例如去年夏天BNSF在广泛洪水下艰难运营的情况。

为了履行其社会责任,BNSF定期投资远远超过其折旧费用,2011年超出部分为18亿美元。美国其他三家主要铁路公司也在进行类似支出。尽管许多人谴责我们国家基础设施支出不足,但这种批评不能针对铁路行业。它正在投入资金——来自私营部门的资金——用于所需的投资项目,以在未来提供更好、更广泛的服务。如果铁路不进行这些巨额支出,我们国家公共资助的高速公路系统将面临比今天更严重的拥堵和维护问题。

像BNSF正在进行的那种大规模投资,如果它在投入的增量资金上不能获得适当的回报,那将是愚蠢的。但我相信它会获得回报,因为它提供的价值。许多年前,本·富兰克林曾建议:“守好你的店铺,你的店铺就会守好你。”将其翻译到我们的受监管业务,他今天可能会说:“照顾好你的客户,监管者——你客户的代表——就会照顾好你。”各方的良好行为会带来相互的良好行为。

在中美能源,我们参与了一个类似的“社会契约”。我们被期望投入越来越多的资金来满足客户未来的需求。同时,如果我们可靠、高效地运营,我们知道我们将从这些投资中获得公平的回报。

中美能源,伯克希尔拥有其89.8%的股份,为美国250万客户提供电力,是爱荷华州、犹他州和怀俄明州最大的供应商,也是其他六个州的重要供应商。我们的管道运输了全国8%的天然气。显然,每天有数百万美国人依赖我们。他们没有失望。

当2002年中美能源收购北天然气管线时,根据该领域权威机构的评估,该公司的管道性能排名倒数第一,在43家公司中排第43位。在最近的报告中,北天然气管线排名第二。排名第一的是我们的另一条管道,克恩河管道。

在电力业务中,中美能源有着类似的历史。在最近的客户满意度调查中,中美能源的美国公用事业公司在60家受调查的公用事业集团中排名第二。而在多年前中美能源收购这些资产时,情况则完全不同。

到2012年底,中美能源将有3,316兆瓦的风力发电投入运营,远超美国任何其他受监管的电力公用事业公司。我们已投资或承诺用于风能的总额高达惊人的60亿美元。我们能够进行这种投资,是因为中美能源保留了所有收益,而其他公用事业公司通常会将大部分收益用于分红。此外,去年底我们承接了两个太阳能项目——一个在加州,100%持有;另一个在亚利桑那州,持有49%的股权——建设成本约为30亿美元。更多的风能和太阳能项目几乎肯定会随之而来。

正如你现在所能察觉的,我为马特·罗斯在BNSF和格雷格·阿贝尔在中美能源为社会所取得的成就感到自豪。我也为他们为伯克希尔股东所取得的成就感到自豪和感激。以下是相关数据:

中美能源盈利(百万美元)
2011
英国公用事业469
爱荷华州公用事业279
西部公用事业771
管道388
HomeServices39
其他(净额)36
企业利息和税前运营收益1,982
利息,除伯克希尔外(323)
伯克希尔次级债务利息(13)
所得税(315)
净利润1,331
归属于伯克希尔的利润1,204
BNSF
(2010年2月12日前为历史会计法;之后为购买会计法)(百万美元)
20112010
收入19,54816,850
运营收益5,3104,495
利息(净额)560507
税前收益4,7413,988
净利润2,9722,459

在我们资产负债表记录的账面价值中,BNSF和中美能源拥有总计200亿美元的大量商誉部分。然而,在每种情况下,查理和我都认为当前的内在价值远高于账面价值。

原文

Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

We have two very large businesses, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy, that have important common characteristics distinguishing them from our many other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own sector in this letter and also split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement.

A key characteristic of both companies is the huge investment they have in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is not needed: Both businesses have earning power that even under terrible business conditions amply covers their interest requirements. In a less than robust economy during 2011, for example, BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x. At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all circumstances: The stability of earnings that is inherent in our exclusively offering an essential service and a diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from the actions of any single regulatory body.

Measured by ton-miles, rail moves 42% of America’s inter-city freight, and BNSF moves more than any other railroad — about 37% of the industry total. A little math will tell you that about 15% of all inter-city ton-miles of freight in the U.S. is transported by BNSF. It is no exaggeration to characterize railroads as the circulatory system of our economy. Your railroad is the largest artery.

All of this places a huge responsibility on us. We must, without fail, maintain and improve our 23,000 miles of track along with 13,000 bridges, 80 tunnels, 6,900 locomotives and 78,600 freight cars. This job requires us to have ample financial resources under all economic scenarios and to have the human talent that can instantly and effectively deal with the vicissitudes of nature, such as the widespread flooding BNSF labored under last summer.

To fulfill its societal obligation, BNSF regularly invests far more than its depreciation charge, with the excess amounting to $1.8 billion in 2011. The three other major U.S. railroads are making similar outlays. Though many people decry our country’s inadequate infrastructure spending, that criticism cannot be levied against the railroad industry. It is pouring money — funds from the private sector — into the investment projects needed to provide better and more extensive service in the future. If railroads were not making these huge expenditures, our country’s publicly-financed highway system would face even greater congestion and maintenance problems than exist today.

Massive investments of the sort that BNSF is making would be foolish if it could not earn appropriate returns on the incremental sums it commits. But I am confident it will do so because of the value it delivers. Many years ago Ben Franklin counseled, “Keep thy shop, and thy shop will keep thee.” Translating this to our regulated businesses, he might today say, “Take care of your customer, and the regulator — your customer’s representative — will take care of you.” Good behavior by each party begets good behavior in return.

At MidAmerican, we participate in a similar “social compact.” We are expected to put up ever-increasing sums to satisfy the future needs of our customers. If we meanwhile operate reliably and efficiently, we know that we will obtain a fair return on these investments.

MidAmerican, 89.8% owned by Berkshire, supplies 2.5 million customers in the U.S. with electricity, operating as the largest supplier in Iowa, Utah and Wyoming and as an important provider in six other states as well. Our pipelines transport 8% of the country’s natural gas. Obviously, many millions of Americans depend on us every day. They haven’t been disappointed.

When MidAmerican purchased Northern Natural Gas pipeline in 2002, that company’s performance as a pipeline was rated dead last, 43 out of 43, by the leading authority in the field. In the most recent report, Northern Natural was ranked second. The top spot was held by our other pipeline, Kern River.

In its electric business, MidAmerican has a comparable record. In the most recent survey of customer satisfaction, MidAmerican’s U.S. utilities ranked second among 60 utility groups surveyed. The story was far different not many years back when MidAmerican acquired these properties.

MidAmerican will have 3,316 megawatts of wind generation in operation by the end of 2012, far more than any other regulated electric utility in the country. The total amount that we have invested or committed to wind is a staggering $6 billion. We can make this sort of investment because MidAmerican retains all of its earnings, unlike other utilities that generally pay out most of what they earn. In addition, late last year we took on two solar projects — one 100%-owned in California and the other 49%-owned in Arizona — that will cost about $3 billion to construct. Many more wind and solar projects will almost certainly follow.

As you can tell by now, I am proud of what has been accomplished for our society by Matt Rose at BNSF and by Greg Abel at MidAmerican. I am also both proud and grateful for what they have accomplished for Berkshire shareholders. Below are the relevant figures:

MidAmericanEarnings (in millions)
20112010
U.K. utilities$ 469$ 333
Iowa utility279279
Western utilities771783
Pipelines388378
HomeServices3942
Other (net)3647
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes1,9821,862
Interest, other than to Berkshire(323)(323)
Interest on Berkshire junior debt(13)(30)
Income tax(315)(271)
Net earnings$1,331$1,238
Earnings applicable to Berkshire*$1,204$1,131
BNSF
(Historicalaccountingthrough 2/12/10;purchase accountingsubsequently)(in millions)
20112010
Revenues$19,548$16,850
Operating earnings5,3104,495
Interest (Net)560507
Pre-Tax earnings4,7413,988
Net earnings2,9722,459

In the book value recorded on our balance sheet, BNSF and MidAmerican carry substantial goodwill components totaling $20 billion. In each instance, however, Charlie and I believe current intrinsic value is far greater than book value.

制造、服务和零售业务

我们在伯克希尔这一部分的活动涵盖了各个方面。不过,让我们看一下整个集团的资产负债表和损益表摘要。

资产负债表 2011年12月31日(百万美元)
资产负债与权益
现金及等价物4,241应付票据1,611
应收款项及票据6,584其他流动负债15,124
存货8,975流动负债合计16,735
其他流动资产631
流动资产合计20,431递延税项4,661
商誉及其他无形资产24,755长期债务及其他负债6,214
固定资产17,866非控制性权益2,410
其他资产3,661伯克希尔权益36,693
66,71366,713
损益表(百万美元)
2011**20102009
收入72,40666,61061,665
运营费用(包括2011年折旧14.31亿美元,2010年13.62亿美元,2009年14.22亿美元)67,23962,22559,509
利息费用13011198
税前收益5,037*4,274*2,058*
所得税及非控制性权益1,9981,812945
净利润3,0392,4621,113

这个企业群销售从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机的各种产品。一些企业拥有极好的经济效益,以无杠杆的净有形资产收益率衡量,从税后25%到超过100%不等。其他企业则产生12-20%左右的良好回报。然而,有几家回报率非常低,这是我在资本配置工作中犯下的一些严重错误所致。这些错误的发生是因为我误判了所收购业务的竞争实力或该行业未来的经济状况。我在进行收购时会尝试展望十年或二十年,但有时我的眼光不佳。查理的

整体而言,伯克希尔这一板块中企业的内在价值显著超过其账面价值。然而,对于许多较小的公司来说,情况并非如此。我在收购小公司方面犯下的错误超过了应有的份额。查理很久以前就告诉过我:“如果一件事根本不值得做,那就不值得把它做好。”我本应该更认真地听进去。无论如何,我们的大规模收购通常效果不错——在少数案例中甚至异常出色——总体而言,这个板块对我们来说是一个赢家。

原文

Overall, the intrinsic value of the businesses in this Berkshire sector significantly exceeds their book value. For many of the smaller companies, however, this is not true. I have made more than my share of mistakes buying small companies. Charlie long ago told me, “If something’s not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well,” and I should have listened harder. In any event, our large purchases have generally worked well — extraordinarily well in a few cases — and overall this sector is a winner for us.

************

某些股东告诉我,他们渴望更多地讨论会计奥秘。所以,这里有一点GAAP强制的废话,希望他们两位都能喜欢。

常识会告诉你,我们多样化的子公司应该按照其成本加上自我们收购以来它们保留的收益来记账(除非其经济价值已大幅下降,在这种情况下必须进行适当的减值)。而这基本上就是伯克希尔的实际情况——除了Marmon公司的奇怪状况。

我们在2008年收购了该公司64%的股份,并将此权益按我们的成本48亿美元入账。到目前为止,一切顺利。然后,在2011年初,根据我们与普利兹克家族最初签订的合同,我们又额外购买了16%的股份,根据反映Marmon增值的公式支付了15亿美元。然而,在这种情况下,我们被要求立即核销6.14亿美元的收购价格,并追溯至2010年底。(别问为什么!)显然,这次核销与经济现实毫无关联。Marmon内在价值超过其账面价值的差额,因这次毫无意义的核销而进一步扩大了。

原文

Certain shareholders have told me they hunger for more discussions of accounting arcana. So here’s a bit of GAAP-mandated nonsense I hope both of them enjoy.

Common sense would tell you that our varied subsidiaries should be carried on our books at their cost plus the earnings they have retained since our purchase (unless their economic value has materially decreased, in which case an appropriate write-down must be taken). And that’s essentially the reality at Berkshire — except for the weird situation at Marmon.

We purchased 64% of the company in 2008 and put this interest on our books at our cost, $4.8 billion. So far, so good. Then, in early 2011, pursuant to our original contract with the Pritzker family, we purchased an additional 16%, paying $1.5 billion as called for by a formula that reflected Marmon’s increased value. In this instance, however, we were required to immediately write off $614 million of the purchase price retroactive to the end of 2010. (Don’t ask!) Obviously, this write-off had no connection to economic reality. The excess of Marmon’s intrinsic value over its carrying value is widened by this meaningless write-down.

金融与金融产品

这个板块是我们最小的板块,包括两家租赁公司:XTRA(拖车租赁)和CORT(家具租赁),以及Clayton Homes,它是美国领先的活动房屋生产商和融资商。除了这些100%控股的子公司,我们在这一类别中还包括一系列金融资产以及我们在Berkadia Commercial Mortgage公司50%的权益。

看看2008年底经济断崖式下跌后我们在三家运营企业中发生的情况,是很有启发性的,因为它们的经历揭示了后来出现的、不均衡的复苏。

我们两家租赁公司的业绩反映了“非住房”经济的状况。它们合并后的税前利润在2009年为1300万美元,2010年为5300万美元,2011年为1.55亿美元,这一改善反映了我们在几乎所有非住房业务中看到的稳步复苏。相比之下,Clayton所处的活动房屋世界(就像现场建造的房屋一样)经历了一场名副其实的萧条,至今未见复苏。全国的活动房屋销售在2009年为49,789套,2010年为50,046套,2011年为51,606套。(在2005年房市繁荣时期,这个数字是146,744套。)

尽管时世艰难,Clayton仍然持续盈利,这主要是因为其抵押贷款组合在困难环境下表现良好。由于我们是活动房屋领域最大的贷款机构,并且通常贷款给中低收入家庭,你可能会认为我们在房地产崩盘期间会遭受巨额损失。但是,通过坚持老派的贷款政策——有意义的首付,以及与正常收入保持合理关系的月供——Clayton将损失控制在了可接受的水平。即使我们许多借款人的资产净值在一段时间内为负,它仍然做到了这一点。

众所周知,美国在住房所有权和抵押贷款政策上脱离了正轨,我们的经济正在为这些错误付出巨大代价。我们所有人都参与了这种破坏性行为——政府、贷款机构、借款人、媒体、评级机构,你能想到的都有。这种愚蠢行为的核心是几乎普遍相信,房价会随着时间的推移而上涨,任何下跌都无关紧要。接受这一前提,就为住房交易中几乎任何价格和行为都提供了合理性。各地的房主都觉得自己更富有了,并急于通过再融资来“变现”他们增加的房屋价值。这些巨额现金注入刺激了我们整个经济中的消费狂潮。这一切在持续期间似乎都乐趣无穷。(一个很大程度上未被注意的事实:大量通过止赎“失去”房屋的人实际上实现了盈利,因为他们之前进行的再融资让他们获得了超过其成本的现金。在这些情况下,被驱逐的房主是赢家,而受害者是贷款机构。)

2007年,泡沫破裂了,正如所有泡沫必然的结果。我们现在正处于恢复的第四年,这个过程虽然漫长而痛苦,但肯定会成功。如今,新家庭组建的数量持续超过房屋开工量。

当全国过剩的住房库存被消化掉之后,Clayton的盈利应该会显著改善。然而,以我今天对情况的看法,我相信该板块三家企业的内在价值与其账面价值并无重大差异。

原文

Finance and Financial Products

This sector, our smallest, includes two rental companies, XTRA (trailers) and CORT (furniture), and Clayton Homes, the country’s leading producer and financer of manufactured homes. Aside from these 100%-owned subsidiaries, we also include in this category a collection of financial assets and our 50% interest in Berkadia Commercial Mortgage.

It’s instructive to look at what transpired at our three operating businesses after the economy fell off a cliff in late 2008, because their experiences illuminate the fractured recovery that later came along.

Results at our two leasing companies mirrored the “non-housing” economy. Their combined pre-tax earnings were $13 million in 2009, $53 million in 2010 and $155 million in 2011, an improvement reflecting the steady recovery we have seen in almost all of our non-housing businesses. In contrast, Clayton’s world of manufactured housing (just like site-built housing) has endured a veritable depression, experiencing no recovery to date. Manufactured housing sales in the nation were 49,789 homes in 2009, 50,046 in 2010 and 51,606 in 2011. (When housing was booming in 2005, they were 146,744.)

Despite these difficult times, Clayton has continued to operate profitably, largely because its mortgage portfolio has performed well under trying circumstances. Because we are the largest lender in the manufactured homes sector and are also normally lending to lower-and-middle-income families, you might expect us to suffer heavy losses during a housing meltdown. But by sticking to old-fashioned loan policies — meaningful down payments and monthly payments with a sensible relationship to regular income — Clayton has kept losses to acceptable levels. It has done so even though many of our borrowers have had negative equity for some time.

As is well-known, the U.S. went off the rails in its home-ownership and mortgage-lending policies, and for these mistakes our economy is now paying a huge price. All of us participated in the destructive behavior — government, lenders, borrowers, the media, rating agencies, you name it. At the core of the folly was the almost universal belief that the value of houses was certain to increase over time and that any dips would be inconsequential. The acceptance of this premise justified almost any price and practice in housing transactions. Homeowners everywhere felt richer and rushed to “monetize” the increased value of their homes by refinancings. These massive cash infusions fueled a consumption binge throughout our economy. It all seemed great fun while it lasted. (A largely unnoted fact: Large numbers of people who have “lost” their house through foreclosure have actually realized a profit because they carried out refinancings earlier that gave them cash in excess of their cost. In these cases, the evicted homeowner was the winner, and the victim was the lender.)

In 2007, the bubble burst, just as all bubbles must. We are now in the fourth year of a cure that, though long and painful, is sure to succeed. Today, household formations are consistently exceeding housing starts.

Clayton’s earnings should improve materially when the nation’s excess housing inventory is worked off. As I see things today, however, I believe the intrinsic value of the three businesses in this sector does not differ materially from their book value.

投资

下面列出的是我们在年底市场价值超过10亿美元的普通股投资。

2011年12月31日
持股数公司持股比例成本市值
(单位:百万美元)
151,610,700美国运通公司13.0%$ 1,287$ 7,151
200,000,000可口可乐公司8.8%1,29913,994
29,100,937康菲石油2.3%2,0272,121
63,905,931国际商业机器公司5.5%10,85611,751
31,416,127强生公司1.2%1,8802,060
79,034,713卡夫食品公司4.5%2,5892,953
20,060,390慕尼黑再保险11.3%2,9902,464
3,947,555韩国浦项制铁公司5.1%7681,301
72,391,036宝洁公司2.6%4644,829
25,848,838赛诺菲1.9%2,0551,900
291,577,428乐购公司3.6%1,7191,827
78,060,769美国合众银行4.1%2,4012,112
39,037,142沃尔玛百货公司1.1%1,8932,333
400,015,828富国银行7.6%9,08611,024
其他6,8959,171
按市值计价的普通股合计$48,209$76,991

我们在2011年期间对投资组合的变动很小。但有三个举动很重要:我们购买了IBM和美国银行的股票,以及我们对富国银行追加了10亿美元的投资。

银行业已经恢复元气,富国银行正在蓬勃发展。其盈利强劲,资产稳健,资本处于创纪录水平。在美国银行,前任管理层犯下了一些巨大的错误。布莱恩·莫伊尼汉在清理这些错误方面取得了卓越进展,尽管完成这一过程还需要数年时间。与此同时,他正在培育一个庞大且有吸引力的基础业务,这个业务将在今天的问题被遗忘之后长期存在。我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的行权证,在到期前很可能会具有巨大价值。

就像1988年投资可口可乐和2006年投资铁路一样,我投资IBM也晚了。我阅读该公司的年报已有50多年,但直到去年三月的一个星期六,我的想法才变得清晰。正如梭罗所说:“重要的不是你看了什么,而是你看到了什么。”

托德·康布斯去年建立了一个价值17.5亿美元的投资组合(按成本计算),特德·韦施勒很快也会建立一个类似规模的投资组合。他们每人从自己的业绩中获得其绩效薪酬的80%,从搭档的业绩中获得20%。当我们的季度申报文件报告相对较小的持股时,这些很可能不是我做出的买入决定(尽管媒体经常忽略这一点),而是表明是托德或特德买入的持股。

关于这两位新成员还有一点。在收购方面,特德和托德都将对伯克希尔的下一任CEO有所帮助。他们拥有出色的“商业头脑”,能够把握很可能决定各种不同企业未来命运的经济力量。他们对什么是可以预测的、什么是不可知的理解,有助于他们的思考。

原文

Investments

Below we show our common stock investments that at yearend had a market value of more than $1 billion.

12/31/1**1
SharesCompanyPercentage**of Company**OwnedCostMarket
*(in $*millions)
151,610,700American Express Company13.0$ 1,287$ 7,151
200,000,000The Coca-Cola Company8.81,29913,994
29,100,937ConocoPhillips2.32,0272,121
63,905,931International Business Machines Corp5.510,85611,751
31,416,127Johnson & Johnson1.21,8802,060
79,034,713Kraft Foods Inc4.52,5892,953
20,060,390Munich Re11.32,9902,464
3,947,555POSCO5.17681,301
72,391,036The Procter & Gamble Company2.64644,829
25,848,838Sanofi1.92,0551,900
291,577,428Tesco plc3.61,7191,827
78,060,769U.S. Bancorp4.12,4012,112
39,037,142Wal-Mart Stores, Inc1.11,8932,333
400,015,828Wells Fargo & Company7.69,08611,024
Others6,8959,171
Total Common Stocks Carried at Market$48,209$76,991

We made few changes in our investment holdings during 2011. But three moves were important: our purchases of IBM and Bank of America and the $1 billion addition we made to our Wells Fargo position.

The banking industry is back on its feet, and Wells Fargo is prospering. Its earnings are strong, its assets solid and its capital at record levels. At Bank of America, some huge mistakes were made by prior management. Brian Moynihan has made excellent progress in cleaning these up, though the completion of that process will take a number of years. Concurrently, he is nurturing a huge and attractive underlying business that will endure long after today’s problems are forgotten. Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.

As was the case with Coca-Cola in 1988 and the railroads in 2006, I was late to the IBM party. I have been reading the company’s annual report for more than 50 years, but it wasn’t until a Saturday in March last year that my thinking crystallized. As Thoreau said, “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.”

Todd Combs built a $1.75 billion portfolio (at cost) last year, and Ted Weschler will soon create one of similar size. Each of them receives 80% of his performance compensation from his own results and 20% from his partner’s. When our quarterly filings report relatively small holdings, these are not likely to be buys I made (though the media often overlook that point) but rather holdings denoting purchases by Todd or Ted.

One additional point about these two new arrivals. Both Ted and Todd will be helpful to the next CEO of Berkshire in making acquisitions. They have excellent “business minds” that grasp the economic forces likely to determine the future of a wide variety of businesses. They are aided in their thinking by an understanding of what is predictable and what is unknowable.

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关于我们的衍生品头寸,没有太多新情况可报告,我们在过去的报告中已经详细描述过。(自1977年以来的年报可在www.berkshirehathaway.com查阅。)然而,必须指出一个重要的行业变化:尽管我们现有的合同有非常轻微的抵押品要求,但新头寸的规则已经改变。因此,我们不会发起任何重大的衍生品头寸。我们回避任何可能要求立即提交抵押品的合约。某种突然且巨额的抵押品要求的可能性——起因于突发事件,如全球金融恐慌或大规模恐怖袭击——与我们保持冗余流动性和毋庸置疑财务实力的首要目标不符。

我们那些类似保险的衍生品合同,即我们支付款项的条件是高收益债券指数中的各种标的违约,这些合同即将结束。使我们面临最大损失的合同已经到期,剩余部分也将很快终止。2011年,我们因两起损失支付了8600万美元,使我们的总支付额达到26亿美元。我们几乎可以肯定在这个投资组合上实现最终的“承保利润”,因为我们收到的保费是34亿美元,而我们未来的损失很可能是轻微的。此外,在这些合同的五年有效期内,我们平均持有约20亿美元的浮存金。在信用压力巨大的时期取得这一成功结果,突显了获得与风险相称的保费的重要性。

查理和我仍然相信,考虑到我们在超过15年时间里将持有的42亿美元浮存金,以及我们已经通过回购合同实现的2.22亿美元利润,我们的股票看跌期权头寸将产生可观的利润。年底时,伯克希尔的账面价值反映了剩余合同85亿美元的负债;如果它们在那个时候全部到期,我们的支付额将是62亿美元。

原文

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There is little new to report on our derivatives positions, which we have described in detail in past reports. (Annual reports since 1977 are available at www.berkshirehathaway.com.) One important industry change, however, must be noted: Though our existing contracts have very minor collateral requirements, the rules have changed for new positions. Consequently, we will not be initiating any major derivatives positions. We shun contracts of any type that could require the instant posting of collateral. The possibility of some sudden and huge posting requirement — arising from an out-of-the-blue event such as a worldwide financial panic or massive terrorist attack — is inconsistent with our primary objectives of redundant liquidity and unquestioned financial strength.

Our insurance-like derivatives contracts, whereby we pay if various issues included in high-yield bond indices default, are coming to a close. The contracts that most exposed us to losses have already expired, and the remainder will terminate soon. In 2011, we paid out $86 million on two losses, bringing our total payments to $2.6 billion. We are almost certain to realize a final “underwriting profit” on this portfolio because the premiums we received were $3.4 billion, and our future losses are apt to be minor. In addition, we will have averaged about $2 billion of float over the five-year life of these contracts. This successful result during a time of great credit stress underscores the importance of obtaining a premium that is commensurate with the risk.

Charlie and I continue to believe that our equity-put positions will produce a significant profit, considering both the $4.2 billion of float we will have held for more than fifteen years and the $222 million profit we’ve already realized on contracts that we repurchased. At yearend, Berkshire’s book value reflected a liability of $8.5 billion for the remaining contracts; if they had all come due at that time our payment would have been $6.2 billion.

投资者的基本选择及我们强烈偏好的那一个

投资常被描述为现在投入资金以期在未来获得更多资金的过程。在伯克希尔,我们采取了一种更苛刻的方法,将投资定义为现在将购买力转移给他人,并理性地预期在未来——在名义收益缴纳所得税后——获得更多的购买力。更简洁地说,投资是为了在以后有能力消费更多而放弃现在的消费。

从我们的定义中得出一个重要推论:一项投资的风险并非由贝塔值(一个华尔街术语,包含波动性,常用于衡量风险)来衡量,而是由该投资在其所有者预期持有期间内导致其损失购买力的概率——理性概率——来衡量的。资产价格可以剧烈波动,但只要它们在持有期内有合理确定性能够提供增加的购买力,就不能算是高风险。正如我们将看到的,一项不波动的资产可能充满风险。

投资的可能性多种多样。然而,主要有三大类,了解每类的特征很重要。那么,让我们来审视一下这个领域。

原文

The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer

Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. At Berkshire we take a more demanding approach, defining investing as the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power — after taxes have been paid on nominal gains — in the future. More succinctly, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date.

From our definition there flows an important corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability — the reasoned probability — of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk.

Investment possibilities are both many and varied. There are three major categories, however, and it’s important to understand the characteristics of each. So let’s survey the field.

  • Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge.

    Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as the holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal. This ugly result, moreover, will forever recur. Governments determine the ultimate value of money, and systemic forces will sometimes cause them to gravitate to policies that produce inflation. From time to time such policies spin out of control.

    Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire. It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time. Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power. Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as “income.”

    For tax-paying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-year period, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory. But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7% return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. This investor’s visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining

    4.3 points. It’s noteworthy that the implicit inflation “tax” was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. “In God We Trust” may be imprinted on our currency, but the hand that activates our government’s printing press has been all too human.

    High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments — and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.

    Under today’s conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety. At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be. Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S. Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum.

    Beyond the requirements that liquidity and regulators impose on us, we will purchase currency-related securities only if they offer the possibility of unusual gain — either because a particular credit is mispriced, as can occur in periodic junk-bond debacles, or because rates rise to a level that offers the possibility of realizing substantial capital gains on high-grade bonds when rates fall. Though we’ve exploited both opportunities in the past — and may do so again — we are now 180 degrees removed from such prospects. Today, a wry comment that Wall Streeter Shelby Cullom Davis made long ago seems apt: “Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk.”

  • The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else — who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive — will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.

    This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce — it will remain lifeless forever — but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

    The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

    What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth — for a while.

    Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the “proof” delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers — for a time — expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”

    Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce — gold’s price as I write this — its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

    Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

    Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers — whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators — must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

    A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops — and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

    Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.

  • Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard “cash is king” in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard “cash is trash” in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort.

    My own preference — and you knew this was coming — is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola, IBM and our own See’s Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies — think of our regulated utilities, for example — fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets.

    Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See’s peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what others produce.

    Our country’s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial “cows” will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of “milk” to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire’s goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety — but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.

年会

年会将于5月5日星期六在CenturyLink中心(由“Qwest”更名而来)举行。去年,Carrie Kizer首次担任主持人,并获得了一份终身任命。大家都喜欢她做的工作——尤其是我。

早上7点开门后不久,我们将有一项新活动:掷报纸挑战赛。去年年底,伯克希尔收购了《奥马哈世界先驱报》,在与该报的股东员工会面时,我讲述了自己十几岁时投递50万份报纸所练就的折叠和投掷技巧。

我立刻看到听众眼中的怀疑。这对我来说并不意外。毕竟,记者们的座右铭是:“如果你妈妈说爱你,你也要去核实一下。”所以现在我必须证明我的说法。在年会上,我将迎战所有挑战者,将《世界先驱报》掷向一个Clayton门廊,距离为35英尺。任何挑战者,如果他的报纸比我更接近门阶,将获得一份Dilly Bar。我已经请Dairy Queen为比赛提供一些,不过我怀疑可能用不上。我们将有一大摞报纸。拿一份。折叠好(不用橡皮筋)。尽力投掷。让我高兴一下吧。

8点30分,将播放一部新的伯克希尔电影。一小时后,我们将开始问答环节(在CenturyLink的看台处有午餐休息),一直持续到下午3点30分。短暂休息后,查理和我在3点45分召开年会。如果你决定在一天的提问环节中离开,请务必在查理讲话时离开。

当然,离开的最佳理由是去购物。我们将帮助您实现这一点,会议区旁边有一个占地194,300平方英尺的大厅,里面摆满了伯克希尔几十家子公司的产品。去年,你们表现不错,大多数摊位都创下了销售记录。在九个小时内,我们卖出了1,249双Justin靴子、11,254磅See’s糖果、8,000把Quikut刀(即每分钟15把刀)和6,126双Wells Lamont手套,这是Marmon的产品,其存在对我来说还是新闻。(我关注的产品是钱。)但你们可以做得更好。记住:任何说钱买不到快乐的人,只是没在我们的年会上购物而已。

今年的新参展商包括Brooks,我们的跑鞋公司。Brooks一直在抢占市场份额,2011年销售额增长了34%,连续第十年创下销量纪录。顺便去恭喜一下公司CEO Jim Weber。一定要买几双限量版“伯克希尔·哈撒韦跑鞋”。

GEICO将设有展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶级顾问提供服务,他们都准备好为您提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下,GEICO可以为您提供股东折扣(通常为8%)。这项特别优惠在我们运营的51个司法管辖区中的44个获得许可。(补充一点:如果您符合其他折扣条件,例如给予特定群体的折扣,则此折扣不可叠加。)请带上您现有保险的详细信息,看看我们是否能为您省钱。我相信至少对你们中的一半人来说,我们可以。

一定要去参观Bookworm。它将提供超过35种书籍和DVD,包括几本新书。我推荐《MiTek》,这是一本关于我们一家非常成功的子公司发展历程的翔实书籍。您将了解到我是如何因为收到一块我无法理解其用途的丑陋金属而最初对该公司产生兴趣的。自从我们在2001年收购MiTek以来,它已经进行了33次“补强”收购,几乎都成功了。我想您也会喜欢Peter Bevelin撰写的一本小书,它解释了伯克希尔的投资和经营原则。这本书总结了查理和我多年来在年报和年会上所说的内容。如果您需要邮寄购买的书籍,附近将提供邮寄服务。

如果你是个大手笔的消费者——或者想成为这样的人——请在星期六中午12点到下午5点之间参观奥马哈机场东侧的Elliott Aviation。那里将有NetJets的机队让您心跳加速。乘巴士来;乘私人飞机走。我来批准你的信用。

随本报告附上的代理材料附件说明了如何获得参加会议和其他活动所需的凭证。航空公司有时会在伯克希尔周末期间抬高票价。如果你来自远方,比较一下飞往堪萨斯城和奥马哈的费用。两个城市之间的车程大约2.5小时,你可能会省下不少钱,特别是如果你原本计划在奥马哈租车的话。把省下的钱花在我们这里。

在内布拉斯加家具城(位于72街Dodge和Pacific之间的77英亩场地上),我们将再次提供“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。去年,该店在年会销售期间实现了3270万美元的营业额,这个数字超过了大多数家具店的全年度销售额。要获得伯克希尔折扣,你必须在5月1日星期二至5月7日星期一(含首尾两日)期间购物,并出示你的会议凭证。这个期间的特别定价甚至适用于几家知名制造商的产品,这些制造商通常有严格的禁止打折规定,但本着我们股东周末的精神,它们为你破例了。我们感谢他们的合作。NFM的营业时间为周一至周六上午10点至晚上9点,周日上午10点至下午6点。今年周六下午5点30分至晚上8点,NFM将举办野餐会,欢迎各位参加。

在Borsheims,我们将再次举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月4日星期五下午6点至晚上9点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场,主要盛会,将于5月6日星期日上午9点至下午4点举行。周六,我们将营业至下午6点。周日下午2点左右,我将在Borsheims担任店员,拼命想超过去年的销售数字。所以,来利用我吧。向我索要我的“疯狂沃伦”价格。

整个周末,Borsheims将迎来巨大的人流。为了您的方便,股东价格将从4月30日星期一起至5月12日星期六止有效。在此期间,请出示您的会议凭证或显示您是伯克希尔持有者的经纪账户对账单,以表明您的股东身份。

周日,在Borsheims外的商场里,两次美国国际象棋冠军Patrick Wolff将蒙上眼睛,迎战所有参赛者——他们将睁大眼睛——每组六人。附近,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师Norman Beck将让旁观者着迷。此外,我们还邀请了两位世界顶尖桥牌专家Bob Hamman和Sharon Osberg,于周日下午与我们的股东一起打桥牌。两位非专业人士——查理和我——也将出现在牌桌旁。

Gorat’s和Piccolo’s将在5月6日周日再次专为伯克希尔股东开放。两家餐厅都将营业至晚上10点,Gorat’s下午1点开门,Piccolo’s下午4点开门。这些是我最喜欢的餐厅,周日晚上我会两家都去吃。(精算表告诉我,在去世前我还能再摄入1200万卡路里。一想到会剩下任何一点,我就感到恐惧,所以周日我会努力多摄入。)记住:要在Gorat’s订位,请在4月1日(不要在此之前)致电402-551-3733;在Piccolo’s订位,请致电402-342-9038。在Piccolo’s,表现得有品位一点,点一份巨型根汁啤酒冰淇淋作为甜点。只有懦夫才会点小份的。

我们的问答环节将再次由同样的三位财经记者主持,他们会向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交给他们的提问。这三位记者及其电子邮件地址是:来自《财富》杂志的Carol Loomis,可发送邮件至cloomis@fortunemail.com;来自CNBC的Becky Quick,可发送邮件至BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com;以及来自《纽约时报》的Andrew Ross Sorkin,可发送邮件至arsorkin@nytimes.com

从提交的问题中,每位记者将选择他们认为最有趣和最重要的十几个问题。记者们告诉我,如果你的问题简洁、避免在最后一刻发送、与伯克希尔相关,并且在每封电子邮件中不超过两个问题,那么它被选中的机会最大。(在你的电子邮件中,如果你希望在被选中时提及你的名字,请告知记者。)

今年,我们增加了一个由三位关注伯克希尔的金融分析师组成的第二小组。他们是KBW的Cliff Gallant、巴克莱资本的Jay Gelb以及Dowling and Partners的Gary Ransom。这些分析师将提出他们自己与伯克希尔相关的问题,并与记者和观众轮流提问。

查理和我认为,所有股东应该同时获得伯克希尔的新信息,并应有足够的时间进行分析,这就是我们试图在周五收盘后发布财务信息的原因。我们不会与大型机构投资者或分析师进行一对一的交谈。我们的新小组将允许分析师以可能对许多股东有益的方式提问——甚至可能是一些技术性问题。

查理和我都不会提前得到任何关于将要提出的问题的线索。我们知道记者和分析师会提出一些尖锐的问题,而这正是我们喜欢的方式。总的来说,我们预计至少有54个问题,这将允许每位分析师和记者各提6个问题,以及从观众中选取18个问题。如果时间有余,我们将从观众中选取更多问题。观众提问者将通过抽签决定,抽签将于上午8点15分在体育馆和主溢流室的13个麦克风处进行。

原文

The Annual Meeting

The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 5th at the CenturyLink Center (renamed from “Qwest”). Last year, Carrie Kizer debuted as the ringmaster and earned a lifetime assignment. Everyone loved the job she did — especially me.

Soon after the 7 a.m. opening of the doors, we will have a new activity: The Newspaper Tossing Challenge. Late last year, Berkshire purchased the Omaha World-Herald and, in my meeting with its shareholder-employees, I told of the folding and throwing skills I developed while delivering 500,000 papers as a teenager.

I immediately saw skepticism in the eyes of the audience. That was no surprise to me. After all, the reporters’ mantra is: “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.” So now I have to back up my claim. At the meeting, I will take on all comers in making 35-foot tosses of the World-Herald to a Clayton porch. Any challenger whose paper lands closer to the doorstep than mine will receive a dilly bar. I’ve asked Dairy Queen to supply several for the contest, though I doubt that any will be needed. We will have a large stack of papers. Grab one. Fold it (no rubber bands). Take your best shot. Make my day.

At 8:30, a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking.

The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do so by filling the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period, we sold 1,249 pairs of Justin boots, 11,254 pounds of See’s candy, 8,000 Quikut knives (that’s 15 knives per minute) and 6,126 pairs of Wells Lamont gloves, a Marmon product whose very existence was news to me. (The product I focus on is money.) But you can do better. Remember: Anyone who says money can’t buy happiness simply hasn’t shopped at our meeting.

Among the new exhibitors this year will be Brooks, our running-shoe company. Brooks has been gobbling up market share and in 2011 had a sales gain of 34%, its tenth consecutive year of record volume. Drop by and congratulate Jim Weber, the company’s CEO. And be sure to buy a couple of pairs of limited edition “Berkshire Hathaway Running Shoes.”

GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least half of you, I believe we can.

Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry more than 35 books and DVDs, including a couple of new ones. I recommend MiTek, an informative history of one of our very successful subsidiaries. You’ll learn how my interest in the company was originally piqued by my receiving in the mail a hunk of ugly metal whose purpose I couldn’t fathom. Since we bought MiTek in 2001, it has made 33 “tuck-in” acquisitions, almost all successful. I think you’ll also like a short book that Peter Bevelin has put together explaining Berkshire’s investment and operating principles. It sums up what Charlie and I have been saying over the years in annual reports and at annual meetings. Should you need to ship your book purchases, a shipping service will be available nearby.

If you are a big spender — or aspire to become one — visit Elliott Aviation on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5:00 p.m. on Saturday. There we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft that will get your pulse racing. Come by bus; leave by private jet. I’ll OK your credit.

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City versus Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2½ hours, and it may be that you can save significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. Spend the savings with us.

At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year the store did $32.7 million of business during its annual meeting sale, a volume that exceeds the yearly sales of most furniture stores. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, May 1st and Monday, May 7th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from10a.m.to9p.m.MondaythroughSaturday,and10a.m.to6p.m.onSunday.OnSaturdaythisyear,from5:30p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited.

At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, May 4th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 6th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. On Sunday, around 2 p.m., I will be clerking at Borsheims, desperate to beat my sales figure from last year. So come take advantage of me. Ask me for my “Crazy Warren” price.

We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 30th through Saturday, May 12th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder.

On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers — who will have their eyes wide open — in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Two non-experts — Charlie and I — will also be at the tables.

Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 6th. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites, and I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. (Actuarial tables tell me that I can consume another 12 million calories before my death. I’m terrified at the thought of leaving any of these behind, so will be frontloading on Sunday.) Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and at Piccolo’s, call 402-342-9038. At Piccolo’s, show some class and order a giant root beer float for dessert. Only sissies get the small one.

We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be e-mailed at cloomis@fortunemail.com; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com, and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at arsorkin@nytimes.com.

From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the dozen or so he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them. (In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.)

This year we are adding a second panel of three financial analysts who follow Berkshire. They are Cliff Gallant of KBW, Jay Gelb of Barclays Capital and Gary Ransom of Dowling and Partners. These analysts will bring their own Berkshire-specific questions and alternate with the journalists and the audience.

Charlie and I believe that all shareholders should have access to new Berkshire information simultaneously and should also have adequate time to analyze it, which is why we try to issue financial information after the market close on a Friday. We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts. Our new panel will let analysts ask questions — perhaps even a few technical ones — in a manner that may be helpful to many shareholders.

Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists and analysts will come up with some tough ones, and that’s the way we like it. All told, we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and 18 from the audience. If there is some extra time, we will take more from the audience. Audience questioners will be determined by drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. at each of the 13 microphones located in the arena and main overflow room.

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我有充分的理由经常赞扬我们运营经理们的成就。他们确实是全明星,经营着自己的企业,仿佛那是他们家族拥有的唯一资产。我相信他们的思维方式,是那些大型上市公司中能找到的最以股东为导向的。大多数人没有经济上的工作需求;打出商业“本垒打”的喜悦对他们来说和薪水一样重要。

然而,同样重要的是与我一起在公司总部工作的23位男士和女士(都在同一层楼,这也是我们打算保持的方式!)。

这个团队高效地处理着大量的SEC和其他监管要求,提交了一份17,839页的联邦所得税申报表——你好,吉尼斯世界纪录!——以及州和国外的申报表。此外,他们回应着无数的股东和媒体咨询,发布年报,筹备全国最大的年会,协调董事会活动——这个清单还在继续。

他们愉快地、以令人难以置信的效率处理所有这些业务任务,让我的生活轻松愉快。他们的努力超出了严格与伯克希尔相关的活动:他们与48所大学(从200个申请者中选出)打交道,这些大学将在本学年派学生来奥马哈与我共度一天,还处理我收到的各种请求,安排我的旅行,甚至为我买汉堡当午餐。没有哪个CEO能比我更好了。

这个总部团队,连同我们的运营经理们,我深表感谢,也值得你们的感谢。5月5日来奥马哈——资本主义的摇篮——并告诉他们这一点。

2012年2月25日

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

原文

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For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly All-Stars, who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I believe their mindset to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most have no financial need to work; the joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck.

Equally important, however, are the 23 men and women who work with me at our corporate office (all on one floor, which is the way we intend to keep it!).

This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements and files a 17,839-page Federal income tax return — hello, Guinness! — as well as state and foreign returns. Additionally, they respond to countless shareholder and media inquiries, get out the annual report, prepare for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinate the Board’s activities — and the list goes on and on.

They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: They deal with 48 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who will send students to Omaha this school year for a day with me and also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers for lunch. No CEO has it better.

This home office crew, along with our operating managers, has my deepest thanks and deserves yours as well. Come to Omaha — the cradle of capitalism — on May 5th and tell them so.

February 25, 2012

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board

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