Skip to content

Table of contents

Open Table of contents

2012年致股东信


致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

2012年,伯克希尔为股东实现了241亿美元的总收益。我们使用了其中13亿美元回购股票,使当年净资产增加了228亿美元。A类股和B类股的每股账面价值均增长了14.4%。在过去48年间(即自现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值已从19美元增长至114,214美元,年复合增长率为19.7%。*

* 本报告中使用的所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔的A类股。B类股的数据为A类股所示数据的1/1500。

去年伯克希尔发生了许多好事,但让我们先把坏消息说清楚。

原文

Title: 2012 Letter

Part 1/2

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

In 2012, Berkshire achieved a total gain for its shareholders of $24.1 billion. We used $1.3 billion of that to repurchase our stock, which left us with an increase in net worth of $22.8 billion for the year. The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 14.4%. Over the last 48 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $114,214, a rate of 19.7% compounded annually.*

* All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.

A number of good things happened at Berkshire last year, but let’s first get the bad news out of the way.

原文
  • When the partnership I ran took control of Berkshire in 1965, I could never have dreamed that a year in which we had a gain of $24.1 billion would be subpar, in terms of the comparison we present on the facing page.

    But subpar it was. For the ninth time in 48 years, Berkshire’s percentage increase in book value was less than the S&P’s percentage gain (a calculation that includes dividends as well as price appreciation). In eight of those nine years, it should be noted, the S&P had a gain of 15% or more. We do better when the wind is in our face.

    To date, we’ve never had a five-year period of underperformance, having managed 43 times to surpass the S&P over such a stretch. (The record is on page 103.) But the S&P has now had gains in each of the last four years, outpacing us over that period. If the market continues to advance in 2013, our streak of five-year wins will end.

    One thing of which you can be certain: Whatever Berkshire’s results, my partner Charlie Munger, the company’s Vice Chairman, and I will not change yardsticks. It’s our job to increase intrinsic business value — for which we use book value as a significantly understated proxy — at a faster rate than the market gains of the S&P. If we do so, Berkshire’s share price, though unpredictable from year to year, will itself outpace the S&P over time. If we fail, however, our management will bring no value to our investors, who themselves can earn S&P returns by buying a low-cost index fund.

    Charlie and I believe the gain in Berkshire’s intrinsic value will over time likely surpass the S&P returns by a small margin. We’re confident of that because we have some outstanding businesses, a cadre of terrific operating mangers and a shareholder-oriented culture. Our relative performance, however, is almost certain to be better when the market is down or flat. In years when the market is particularly strong, expect us to fall short.

原文
  • The second disappointment in 2012 was my inability to make a major acquisition. I pursued a couple of elephants, but came up empty-handed.

    Our luck, however, changed early this year. In February, we agreed to buy 50% of a holding company that will own all of H. J. Heinz. The other half will be owned by a small group of investors led by Jorge Paulo Lemann, a renowned Brazilian businessman and philanthropist.

    We couldn’t be in better company. Jorge Paulo is a long-time friend of mine and an extraordinary manager. His group and Berkshire will each contribute about $4 billion for common equity in the holding company. Berkshire will also invest $8 billion in preferred shares that pay a 9% dividend. The preferred has two other features that materially increase its value: at some point it will be redeemed at a significant premium price and the preferred also comes with warrants permitting us to buy 5% of the holding company’s common stock for a nominal sum.

    Our total investment of about $12 billion soaks up much of what Berkshire earned last year. But we still have plenty of cash and are generating more at a good clip. So it’s back to work; Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants.

现在来看2012年的一些好消息:

原文

Now to some good news from 2012:

  • Last year I told you that BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group and MidAmerican Energy — our five most profitable non-insurance companies — were likely to earn more than $10 billion pre-tax in 2012. They delivered. Despite tepid U.S. growth and weakening economies throughout much of the world, our “powerhouse five” had aggregate earnings of $10.1 billion, about $600 million more than in 2011.

    Of this group, only MidAmerican, then earning $393 million pre-tax, was owned by Berkshire eight years ago. Subsequently, we purchased another three of the five on an all-cash basis. In acquiring the fifth, BNSF, we paid about 70% of the cost in cash, and for the remainder, issued shares that increased the amount outstanding by 6.1%. Consequently, the $9.7 billion gain in annual earnings delivered Berkshire by the five companies has been accompanied by only minor dilution. That satisfies our goal of not simply growing, but rather increasing per-share results.

    Unless the U.S. economy tanks — which we don’t expect — our powerhouse five should again deliver higher earnings in 2013. The five outstanding CEOs who run them will see to that.

原文
  • Though I failed to land a major acquisition in 2012, the managers of our subsidiaries did far better. We had a record year for “bolt-on” purchases, spending about $2.3 billion for 26 companies that were melded into our existing businesses. These transactions were completed without Berkshire issuing any shares.

    Charlie and I love these acquisitions: Usually they are low-risk, burden headquarters not at all, and expand the scope of our proven managers.

原文
  • Our insurance operations shot the lights out last year. While giving Berkshire $73 billion of free money to invest, they also delivered a $1.6 billion underwriting gain, the tenth consecutive year of profitable underwriting. This is truly having your cake and eating it too.

    GEICO led the way, continuing to gobble up market share without sacrificing underwriting discipline. Since 1995, when we obtained control, GEICO’s share of the personal-auto market has grown from 2.5% to 9.7%. Premium volume meanwhile increased from $2.8 billion to $16.7 billion. Much more growth lies ahead.

    The credit for GEICO’s extraordinary performance goes to Tony Nicely and his 27,000 associates. And to that cast, we should add our Gecko. Neither rain nor storm nor gloom of night can stop him; the little lizard just soldiers on, telling Americans how they can save big money by going to GEICO.com.

    When I count my blessings, I count GEICO twice.

原文
  • Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, our new investment managers, have proved to be smart, models of integrity, helpful to Berkshire in many ways beyond portfolio management, and a perfect cultural fit. We hit the jackpot with these two. In 2012 each outperformed the S&P 500 by double-digit margins. They left me in the dust as well.

    Consequently, we have increased the funds managed by each to almost $5 billion (some of this emanating from the pension funds of our subsidiaries). Todd and Ted are young and will be around to manage Berkshire’s massive portfolio long after Charlie and I have left the scene. You can rest easy when they take over.

原文
  • Berkshire’s yearend employment totaled a record 288,462 (see page 106 for details), up 17,604 from last year. Our headquarters crew, however, remained unchanged at 24. No sense going crazy.
原文
  • Berkshire’s “Big Four” investments — American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo — all had good years. Our ownership interest in each of these companies increased during the year. We purchased additional shares of Wells Fargo (our ownership now is 8.7% versus 7.6% at yearend 2011) and IBM (6.0% versus 5.5%). Meanwhile, stock repurchases at Coca-Cola and American Express raised our percentage ownership. Our equity in Coca-Cola grew from 8.8% to 8.9% and our interest at American Express from 13.0% to 13.7%.

    Berkshire’s ownership interest in all four companies is likely to increase in the future. Mae West had it right: “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.”

    The four companies possess marvelous businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. At Berkshire we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful business to owning 100% of a so-so business. Our flexibility in capital allocation gives us a significant advantage over companies that limit themselves only to acquisitions they can operate.

    Going by our yearend share count, our portion of the “Big Four’s” 2012 earnings amounted to $3.9 billion. In the earnings we report to you, however, we include only the dividends we receive — about $1.1 billion. But make no mistake: The $2.8 billion of earnings we do not report is every bit as valuable to us as what we record.

    The earnings that the four companies retain are often used for repurchases — which enhance our share of future earnings — and also for funding business opportunities that are usually advantageous. Over time we expect substantially greater earnings from these four investees. If we are correct, dividends to Berkshire will increase and, even more important, so will our unrealized capital gains (which, for the four, totaled $26.7 billion at yearend).

原文
  • There was a lot of hand-wringing last year among CEOs who cried “uncertainty” when faced with capital-allocation decisions (despite many of their businesses having enjoyed record levels of both earnings and cash). At Berkshire, we didn’t share their fears, instead spending a record $9.8 billion on plant and equipment in 2012, about 88% of it in the United States. That’s 19% more than we spent in 2011, our previous high. Charlie and I love investing large sums in worthwhile projects, whatever the pundits are saying. We instead heed the words from Gary Allan’s new country song, “Every Storm Runs Out of Rain.”

    We will keep our foot to the floor and will almost certainly set still another record for capital expenditures in 2013. Opportunities abound in America.


给CEO同行们的一点想法:当然,眼前的未来是不确定的;自1776年以来,美国就一直面对未知。只是有时人们关注那些始终存在的无数不确定性,而在其他时候则忽略它们(通常是因为最近的过去风平浪静)。

美国企业长期来看会表现良好。股票也必然会表现良好,因为它们的命运与企业业绩紧密相连。是的,周期性挫折会发生,但投资者和经理人参与的游戏在本质上是极其有利于他们的。(道琼斯工业平均指数在20世纪从66点上涨到11,497点,增长了惊人的17,320%,这一增长是在经历了四次代价高昂的战争、一次大萧条和多次衰退的情况下实现的。而且别忘了,股东在整个世纪中还获得了可观的股息。)

由于基本游戏如此有利,查理和我认为试图根据塔罗牌的结果、“专家”的预测或商业活动的潮起潮落而进进出出,是一个可怕的错误。远离游戏的风险与身处游戏中的风险相比是巨大的。

我自己的历史提供了一个戏剧性的例子:我在1942年春天做了我的第一笔股票购买,当时美国在整个太平洋战区遭受重大损失。每天的新闻头条都报道更多的挫折。即便如此,没有人谈论不确定性;我认识的每个美国人都相信我们会获胜。

自那个危险时期以来,国家的成功令人难以置信:按通胀调整后,1941年至2012年间人均GDP增长了四倍多。在那段时期,每个明天都是不确定的。然而美国的命运始终清晰:持续增长的富足。

如果你是一位CEO,因为短期担忧而搁置一些大型、有利可图的项目,请致电伯克希尔。让我们为你卸下负担。

原文

A thought for my fellow CEOs: Of course, the immediate future is uncertain; America has faced the unknown since 1776. It’s just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful).

American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don’t forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)

Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.

My own history provides a dramatic example: I made my first stock purchase in the spring of 1942 when the U.S. was suffering major losses throughout the Pacific war zone. Each day’s headlines told of more setbacks. Even so, there was no talk about uncertainty; every American I knew believed we would prevail.

The country’s success since that perilous time boggles the mind: On an inflation-adjusted basis, GDP per capita more than quadrupled between 1941 and 2012. Throughout that period, every tomorrow has been uncertain. America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance.

If you are a CEO who has some large, profitable project you are shelving because of short-term worries, call Berkshire. Let us unburden you.


总之,查理和我的目标是:(1) 提高我们众多子公司的盈利能力;(2) 通过补强型收购进一步提高它们的收益;(3) 参与我们被投资公司的增长;(4) 在伯克希尔股票以显著低于内在价值的价格出售时回购股票;(5) 偶尔进行大型收购。我们还将努力通过极少(如果有的话)发行伯克希尔股票来为最大化成果。

这些基石建立在一个坚如磐石的基础之上。一个世纪后,BNSF和中美能源将继续在美国经济中发挥主要作用。此外,保险对于企业和个人始终是必不可少的——没有哪家公司比伯克希尔拥有更多的资源。当我们审视这些及其他优势时,查理和我看好你们公司的前景。

原文

************

In summary, Charlie and I hope to build per-share intrinsic value by (1) improving the earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) participating in the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.

Those building blocks rest on a rock-solid foundation. A century hence, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy will continue to play major roles in the American economy. Insurance, moreover, will always be essential for both businesses and individuals — and no company brings greater resources to that arena than Berkshire. As we view these and other strengths, Charlie and I like your company’s prospects.

内在商业价值

尽管查理和我经常谈论内在商业价值,但我们无法精确告诉你伯克希尔股票的这个数字是多少(就此而言,任何其他股票也是如此)。然而,在我们2010年的年度报告中,我们列出了三个要素——其中之一是定性因素——我们认为这些是合理估计伯克希尔内在价值的关键。该讨论全文转载于第104-105页。

以下是两个量化因素的更新:2012年,我们的每股投资增长15.7%至113,786美元,我们来自保险和投资以外业务的每股税前收益也增长15.7%至8,085美元。

自1970年以来,我们的每股投资以19.4%的年复合增长率增长,每股收益数字以20.8%的速度增长。伯克希尔股票在42年间的价格上涨速度与我们的两个价值衡量指标非常相似,这并非巧合。查理和我喜欢看到这两个领域都有增长,但我们始终将重点放在建立运营收益上。

原文

Intrinsic Business Value

As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number is for Berkshire shares (or, for that matter, any other stock). In our 2010 annual report, however, we laid out the three elements — one of which was qualitative — that we believe are the keys to a sensible estimate of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 104-105.

Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2012 our per-share investments increased 15.7% to $113,786, and our per-share pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments also increased 15.7% to $8,085.

Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 19.4% compounded annually, and our per-share earnings figure has grown at a 20.8% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the 42-year period has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our strong emphasis will always be on building operating earnings.


现在,让我们审视我们运营的四个主要板块。每个板块的资产负债表和收入特征与其他板块截然不同。因此,将它们混在一起会妨碍分析。所以我们将它们作为四个独立业务来呈现,查理和我就是这样看待它们的。

原文

************

Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. Lumping them together therefore impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them.

保险

首先来看保险,这是伯克希尔的核心业务,也是多年来推动我们扩张的引擎。

财产意外险(“P/C”)保险公司先收取保费,之后才支付索赔。在极端情况下,例如某些工伤赔偿事故产生的索赔,支付可能延续数十年。这种”先收钱、后付款”的模式让我们持有大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金”——这些资金最终将流向他人。与此同时,我们可以为伯克希尔的利益投资这些浮存金。尽管单个保单和索赔来来去去,但我们持有的浮存金金额相对于保费规模保持相当稳定。因此,随着我们的业务增长,浮存金也在增长。而我们确实增长了,如下表所示:

年份浮存金*(单位:百万美元)*
197039美元
1980237
19901,632
200027,871
201065,832
201273,125

去年我告诉你们,我们的浮存金未来可能会趋于平稳甚至略有下降。我们的保险CEO们着手证明我错了,而且确实做到了,去年浮存金增加了25亿美元。我现在预计2013年将进一步增加。但进一步的增长将难以实现。从积极方面看,GEICO的浮存金几乎肯定会增长。然而,在国家赔偿再保险部门,我们有一些正在逐步结束的合同,其浮存金正在下降。如果未来某个时候我们的浮存金确实下降,那也将是非常渐进的——最多每年不超过2%。

如果我们的保费超过费用和最终损失的总和,我们就实现了承保利润,这增加了我们的浮存金所产生的投资收益。当赚取这样的利润时,我们享受使用免费资金的好处——而且更妙的是,我们还因为持有它而获得报酬。这就像你借了一笔贷款,银行反而付给你利息

不幸的是,所有保险公司都希望实现这一可喜结果,由此产生了激烈的竞争,在大多数年份如此激烈,以至于导致整个P/C行业出现显著的承保亏损。这种亏损实际上是该行业为持有其浮存金所支付的成本。例如,State Farm,美国迄今为止最大的保险公司,也是一家管理良好的公司,在截至2011年的11年中有8年出现承保亏损。(他们2012年的财务数据尚未公布。)在保险业中有很多赔钱的方式,而该行业从未停止寻找新的方式。

正如本报告第一部分所述,我们已连续十年实现承保盈利,该期间的税前利润总计186亿美元。展望未来,我相信我们在大多数年份将继续实现承保盈利。如果做到这一点,我们的浮存金将比免费资金更好。

那么,我们有吸引力的浮存金如何影响内在价值的计算呢?当计算伯克希尔的账面价值时,我们浮存金的全部金额被作为负债扣除,就好像我们明天就必须支付它并且无法补充一样。但这是看待浮存金的错误方式,它应该被视为一个循环基金。如果浮存金既无成本又长期持久——我相信伯克希尔的浮存金将会如此——那么这项负债的真实价值就会大大低于会计负债。

与这种被高估的负债部分抵消的是归属于我们保险公司的155亿美元”商誉”,它作为资产计入账面价值。实际上,这项商誉代表了我们为保险业务的浮存金生成能力所支付的价格。然而,商誉的成本与其真实价值没有关系。例如,如果一家保险业务持续遭受巨额且长期的承保亏损,那么账簿上携带的任何商誉资产都应被视为毫无价值,无论其原始成本是多少。

幸运的是,伯克希尔的情况并非如此。查理和我相信,我们的保险商誉的真实经济价值——我们乐意支付购买产生类似质量浮存金的保险业务的价格——远远超过其历史账面价值。我们浮存金的价值是一个原因——一个巨大的原因——为什么我们相信伯克希尔的内在商业价值大大超过其账面价值。

让我再次强调,无成本浮存金并非整个P/C行业可预期的结果:在保险世界中,很少有”伯克希尔品质”的浮存金存在。在截至2011年的45年中有37年,该行业的保费不足以覆盖索赔加费用。因此,该行业几十年来总体有形股权的回报率远低于美国工业实现的平均回报率,这种令人遗憾的表现几乎肯定会持续。

另一个令人不快的现实加剧了该行业暗淡的前景:保险收益目前受益于”遗留”债券投资组合,这些投资组合提供的收益率远高于未来几年——可能还有此后许多年——资金再投资时所能获得的收益率。今天的债券投资组合实际上是消耗性资产。随着债券到期并滚动投资,保险公司的收益将受到显著影响。

原文

Insurance

Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has propelled our expansion over the years.

Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums — money we call “float” — that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire’s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains quite stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows:

YearFloat*(in $* millions)
1970$ 39
1980237
19901,632
200027,871
201065,832
201273,125

Last year I told you that our float was likely to level off or even decline a bit in the future. Our insurance CEOs set out to prove me wrong and did, increasing float last year by $2.5 billion. I now expect a further increase in 2013. But further gains will be tough to achieve. On the plus side, GEICO’s float will almost certainly grow. In National Indemnity’s reinsurance division, however, we have a number of run-off contracts whose float drifts downward. If we do experience a decline in float at some future time, it will be very gradual — at the outside no more than 2% in any year.

If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money — and, better yet, get paid for holding it. That’s like your taking out a loan and having the bank pay you interest.

Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company besides, incurred an underwriting loss in eight of the eleven years ending in 2011. (Their financials for 2012 are not yet available.) There are a lot of ways to lose money in insurance, and the industry never ceases searching for new ones.

As noted in the first section of this report, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for ten consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $18.6 billion. Looking ahead, I believe we will continue to underwrite profitably in most years. If we do, our float will be better than free money.

So how does our attractive float affect the calculations of intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and were unable to replenish it. But that’s an incorrect way to look at float, which should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. If float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe Berkshire’s will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability.

A partial offset to this overstated liability is $15.5 billion of “goodwill” that is attributable to our insurance companies and included in book value as an asset. In effect, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. For example, if an insurance business sustains large and prolonged underwriting losses, any goodwill asset carried on the books should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost.

Fortunately, that’s not the case at Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill — what we would happily pay to purchase an insurance operation producing float of similar quality — to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. The value of our float is one reason — a huge reason — why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds its book value.

Let me emphasize once again that cost-free float is not an outcome to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: There is very little “Berkshire-quality” float existing in the insurance world. In 37 of the 45 years ending in 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue.

A further unpleasant reality adds to the industry’s dim prospects: Insurance earnings are now benefitting from “legacy” bond portfolios that deliver much higher yields than will be available when funds are reinvested during the next few years — and perhaps for many years beyond that. Today’s bond portfolios are, in effect, wasting assets. Earnings of insurers will be hurt in a significant way as bonds mature and are rolled over.


伯克希尔杰出的经济状况之所以存在,只是因为我们有一些出色的经理人管理着一些非凡的保险业务。让我告诉你们主要的业务部门。

按浮存金规模排列,首先是伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团,由阿吉特·贾因管理。阿吉特承保其他公司没有意愿或资本承担的风险。他的运营将能力、速度、果断,最重要的是智慧,以保险业独一无二的方式结合在一起。然而,他从不使伯克希尔暴露在与我们的资源不相称的风险之下。事实上,我们在规避风险方面比大多数大型保险公司更为保守。例如,如果保险业因某种特大灾难遭受2,500亿美元的损失——这大约是它曾经遭受过的任何损失的三倍——伯克希尔整体上很可能在该年度录得可观的利润,因为它有如此多的收益来源。而所有其他主要保险公司和再保险公司将同时陷入严重亏损,有些将面临破产。

自1985年从零开始,阿吉特创建了一个拥有350亿美元浮存金和大量累计承保利润的保险业务,这是其他任何保险CEO都无法比拟的成就。因此,他为伯克希尔的价值增加了数十亿美元。如果你在年会上遇到阿吉特,请深鞠一躬。

原文

************

Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units.

First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, run by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, we are far more conservative in avoiding risk than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe

— a loss about triple anything it has ever experienced — Berkshire as a whole would likely record a significant profit for the year because it has so many streams of earnings. All other major insurers and reinsurers would meanwhile be far in the red, with some facing insolvency.

From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $35 billion and a significant cumulative underwriting profit, a feat that no other insurance CEO has come close to matching. He has thus added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire. If you meet Ajit at the annual meeting, bow deeply.


我们在通用再保险还有另一家再保险巨头,由泰德·蒙特罗斯管理。

归根结底,一个健全的保险业务需要遵守四条原则。它必须(1) 理解可能导致保单产生损失的所有风险敞口;(2) 保守评估任何风险敞口实际导致损失的可能性以及如果发生损失的可能成本;(3) 制定一个在覆盖预期损失成本和运营费用后平均能产生利润的保费;(4) 如果无法获得合适的保费,愿意放弃。

许多保险公司通过了前三项测试,但在第四项上失败了。它们就是无法拒绝竞争对手在积极承保的业务。那句老话,“别人在做,所以我们也必须做”,在任何行业都会带来麻烦,但没有比保险业更甚。

泰德遵守了所有四条保险戒律,他的业绩证明了这一点。在他的领导下,通用再保险的大量浮存金比无成本还要好,我们预计平均而言将继续如此。我们特别看好通用再保险的国际人寿再保险业务,自1998年收购该公司以来,该业务实现了持续且有利可图的增长。

原文

************

We have another reinsurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross.

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but none more so than insurance.

Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, it will continue to be. We are particularly enthusiastic about General Re’s international life reinsurance business, which has achieved consistent and profitable growth since we acquired the company in 1998.


最后是GEICO,这是我在62年前开始学习保险业务的公司。GEICO由托尼·奈斯利管理,他18岁加入公司,到2012年已完成51年的服务。

当我看到托尼所取得的成就时,我简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。值得注意的是,去年他的记录远好于GEICO的6.8亿美元GAAP承保利润所显示的水平。由于年初会计准则的变化,我们在GEICO的承保收益中记录了4.1亿美元的费用。这一项目与2012年的经营业绩毫无关系,既不影响现金,也不影响收入、费用或税收。实际上,这笔减记只是拉大了GEICO内在价值与我们账面上记录的价值之间本已巨大的差距。

此外,GEICO是在公司遭受其历史上最大的单次损失的情况下实现承保利润的。原因是桑迪飓风,该飓风给GEICO造成的损失是之前记录保持者卡特里娜飓风的三倍多。我们为在风暴中受损或被毁的46,906辆汽车提供了保险,这一惊人的数字反映了GEICO在纽约大都会区的领先市场份额。

去年,GEICO在现有保单持有人的续保率(“持久性”)和报价转化为销售的比例(“成交率”)上都实现了显著增长。这两个因素关系重大:持久性持续提高一个百分点,内在价值就会增加超过10亿美元。GEICO在2012年的增长有力地证明,当人们查看该公司的价格时,他们通常发现可以节省大笔钱。(请拨打1-800-847-7536或访问GEICO.com试一试。务必提及你是股东;这一事实通常会使你获得折扣。)

原文

************

Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 62 years ago. GEICO is run by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 51 years of service in 2012.

I rub my eyes when I look at what Tony has accomplished. Last year, it should be noted, his record was considerably better than is indicated by GEICO’s GAAP underwriting profit of $680 million. Because of a change in accounting rules at the beginning of the year, we recorded a charge to GEICO’s underwriting earnings of $410 million. This item had nothing to do with 2012’s operating results, changing neither cash, revenues, expenses nor taxes. In effect, the writedown simply widened the already huge difference between GEICO’s intrinsic value and the value at which we carry it on our books.

GEICO earned its underwriting profit, moreover, despite the company suffering its largest single loss in history. The cause was Hurricane Sandy, which cost GEICO more than three times the loss it sustained from Katrina, the previous record-holder. We insured 46,906 vehicles that were destroyed or damaged in the storm, a staggering number reflecting GEICO’s leading market share in the New York metropolitan area.

Last year GEICO enjoyed a meaningful increase in both the renewal rate for existing policyholders (“persistency”) and in the percentage of rate quotations that resulted in sales (“closures”). Big dollars ride on those two factors: A sustained gain in persistency of a bare one percentage point increases intrinsic value by more than $1 billion. GEICO’s gains in 2012 offer dramatic proof that when people check the company’s prices, they usually find they can save important sums. (Give us a try at 1-800-847-7536 or GEICO.com. Be sure to mention that you are a shareholder; that fact will usually result in a discount.)


除了我们的三大保险业务,我们还拥有一组较小的公司,其中大多数在保险世界的各个角落经营。这些公司总体上一直实现承保利润。此外,如下表所示,它们也为我们提供了大量的浮存金。查理和我珍视这些公司及其经理人。

2012年底,我们通过收购Guard Insurance扩大了这一集团,这是一家位于威尔克斯-巴里的公司,主要为小型企业承保工伤赔偿保险。Guard的年保费总额约为3亿美元。该公司在其传统业务和已开始提供的新业务线方面都有很好的增长前景。

承保利润年末**浮存金
(单位:百万美元)
保险**业务2012201120122011
BH再保险304(714)34,82133,728
通用再保险35514420,12819,714
GEICO680*57611,57811,169
其他主要保险2862426,5985,960
1,62524873,12570,571

在大型保险业务中,伯克希尔给我的印象是世界上最好的。1967年3月,杰克·林沃特以860万美元将他的两家财产意外险公司卖给我们,那是我们的幸运日。

原文

************

In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them plying their trade in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, these companies have consistently delivered an underwriting profit. Moreover, as the table below shows, they also provide us with substantial float. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers.

Late in 2012, we enlarged this group by acquiring Guard Insurance, a Wilkes-Barre company that writes workers compensation insurance, primarily for smaller businesses. Guard’s annual premiums total about $300 million. The company has excellent prospects for growth in both its traditional business and new lines it has begun to offer.

Underwriting ProfitYearend**Float
(in millions)
Insurance**Operations2012201120122011
BH Reinsurance$ 304$(714)$34,821$33,728
General Re35514420,12819,714
GEICO680*57611,57811,169
Other Primary2862426,5985,960
$1,625$ 248$73,125$70,571

Among large insurance operations, Berkshire’s impresses me as the best in the world. It was our lucky day when, in March 1967, Jack Ringwalt sold us his two property-casualty insurers for $8.6 million.

受监管、资本密集型业务

我们有两大业务,BNSF和中美能源,它们具有重要的共同特征,使其区别于我们的其他业务。因此,我们在本信中为它们设立了自己的板块,并在GAAP资产负债表和利润表中分开列出它们的合并财务数据。

这两家公司的关键特征是对寿命极长的受监管资产进行巨额投资,这些投资部分由大量长期债务资助,而这些债务由伯克希尔担保。实际上并不需要我们的信用,因为每项业务即使在糟糕的条件下也有足够的盈利能力来充分覆盖其利息需求。例如,在去年经济疲软的情况下,BNSF的利息覆盖倍数为9.6倍。(我们对覆盖倍数的定义是税前利润/利息,而非EBITDA/利息,后者是一种被广泛使用但我们认为存在严重缺陷的衡量标准。)同时,在中美能源,两个关键因素确保了其在任何情况下偿还债务的能力:公司抵御衰退的收益,这源于我们独家提供的基本服务,以及其收益来源的极大多样性,这使其免受任何单一监管机构的严重损害。

每天,我们的这两家子公司都以重要方式为美国经济提供动力:

像这样的项目需要巨大的资本投资。事实上,完成后,我们的可再生能源投资组合将耗资130亿美元。如果这些投资承诺合理的回报,我们乐于做出这样的承诺——在这方面,我们对未来的监管寄予厚望。

我们的信心既基于过去的经验,也基于这样一个认识:社会永远需要对交通和能源进行大规模投资。以确保持续向基本项目提供资金的方式对待资本提供者,符合政府的自身利益。以赢得监管机构及其所代表的人民认可的方式运营我们的业务,也符合我们自身的利益。

我们的经理必须今天就要考虑国家未来长期的需求。能源和交通项目可能需要多年才能实现;一个成长中的国家根本承受不起落后于形势。

我们一直在尽自己的一份力量确保这种情况不会发生。无论你听说过关于美国基础设施破败的什么说法,这绝不适用于BNSF或铁路行业总体而言。美国的铁路系统从未处于如此良好的状态,这是行业巨额投资的结果。然而,我们并没有躺在功劳簿上:BNSF将在2013年在铁路上花费约40亿美元,大约是其折旧费用的两倍,比任何铁路公司在任何单一年份的花费都多。

在BNSF的马特·罗斯和中美能源的格雷格·阿贝尔身上,我们拥有两位杰出的CEO。他们是非凡的经理人,建立了既服务客户又服务所有者的业务。他们每个人都得到了我的感激,也应该得到你们的感激。以下是他们业务的关键数据:

中美能源*(持股89.8%)*收益*(单位:百万美元)*
20122011
英国公用事业429469
爱荷华州公用事业236279
西部公用事业737771
管道383388
HomeServices8239
其他(净额)9136
公司利息和税前营业收益1,9581,982
利息314336
所得税172315
净利润1,4721,331
归属于伯克希尔的收益1,3231,204
BNSF收益*(单位:百万美元)*
20122011
收入20,83519,548
营业费用14,83514,247
息税前营业收益6,0005,301
利息(净额)623560
所得税2,0051,769
净利润3,3722,972

眼尖的读者会注意到中美能源收益表中的一处不协调。HomeServices,一家房地产经纪公司,到底在”受监管、资本密集型业务”这一板块中做什么呢?

嗯,当我们在2000年收购中美能源的控制权时,它的所有权是随之而来的。当时,我专注于中美能源的公用事业业务,几乎没有注意到HomeServices,那时它只拥有几家房地产经纪公司。

然而,自那以后,该公司定期增加住宅经纪公司——2012年增加了三家——现在在美国一系列主要城市拥有约16,000名经纪人。(我们的房地产经纪公司列在第107页。)2012年,我们的经纪人参与了420亿美元的房屋销售,比2011年增长33%。

此外,HomeServices去年收购了Prudential和Real Living特许经营业务67%的权益,这两家业务共同授权全国544家经纪公司,并从它们的销售中获得少量特许权使用费。我们有协议在五年内购买这些业务的剩余部分。未来几年,我们将逐步将我们的特许经营商和我们拥有的特许经营公司重新品牌化为伯克希尔·哈撒韦HomeServices。

罗恩·佩尔蒂埃在不景气时期管理HomeServices方面做得非常出色。现在,随着住房市场持续走强,我们预计收益将显著增长。

原文

Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

We have two major operations, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy, that have important common characteristics distinguishing them from our other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own section in this letter and split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement.

A key characteristic of both companies is their huge investment in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is in fact not needed because each business has earning power that even under terrible conditions amply covers its interest requirements. In last year’s tepid economy, for example, BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.6x. (Our definition of coverage is pre-tax earnings/interest, not EBITDA/interest, a commonly-used measure we view as deeply flawed.) At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all circumstances: the company’s recession-resistant earnings, which result from our exclusively offering an essential service, and its great diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from being seriously harmed by any single regulatory body.

Every day, our two subsidiaries power the American economy in major ways:

  • BNSF carries about 15% (measured by ton-miles) of all inter-city freight, whether it is transported by truck, rail, water, air, or pipeline. Indeed, we move more ton-miles of goods than anyone else, a fact making BNSF the most important artery in our economy’s circulatory system.

    BNSF also moves its cargo in an extraordinarily fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly way, carrying a ton of freight about 500 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. Trucks taking on the same job guzzle about four times as much fuel.

  • MidAmerican’s electric utilities serve regulated retail customers in ten states. Only one utility holding company serves more states. In addition, we are the leader in renewables: first, from a standing start nine years ago, we now account for 6% of the country’s wind generation capacity. Second, when we complete three projects now under construction, we will own about 14% of U.S. solar-generation capacity.

Projects like these require huge capital investments. Upon completion, indeed, our renewables portfolio will have cost $13 billion. We relish making such commitments if they promise reasonable returns — and on that front, we put a large amount of trust in future regulation.

Our confidence is justified both by our past experience and by the knowledge that society will forever need massive investment in both transportation and energy. It is in the self-interest of governments to treat capital providers in a manner that will ensure the continued flow of funds to essential projects. And it is in our self-interest to conduct our operations in a manner that earns the approval of our regulators and the people they represent.

Our managers must think today of what the country will need far down the road. Energy and transportation projects can take many years to come to fruition; a growing country simply can’t afford to get behind the curve.

We have been doing our part to make sure that doesn’t happen. Whatever you may have heard about our country’s crumbling infrastructure in no way applies to BNSF or railroads generally. America’s rail system has never been in better shape, a consequence of huge investments by the industry. We are not, however, resting on our laurels: BNSF will spend about $4 billion on the railroad in 2013, roughly double its depreciation charge and more than any railroad has spent in a single year.

In Matt Rose, at BNSF, and Greg Abel, at MidAmerican, we have two outstanding CEOs. They are extraordinary managers who have developed businesses that serve both their customers and owners well. Each has my gratitude and each deserves yours. Here are the key figures for their businesses:

MidAmerican*(89.8%* owned)Earnings*(in* millions)
20122011
U.K. utilities$ 429$ 469
Iowa utility236279
Western utilities737771
Pipelines383388
HomeServices8239
Other (net)9136
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes1,9581,982
Interest314336
Income taxes172315
Net earnings$ 1,472$ 1,331
Earnings applicable to Berkshire$ 1,323$ 1,204
BNSFEarnings*(in* millions)
20122011
Revenues$20,835$19,548
Operating expenses14,83514,247
Operating earnings before interest and taxes6,0005,301
Interest (net)623560
Income taxes2,0051,769
Net earnings$ 3,372$ 2,972

Sharp-eyed readers will notice an incongruity in the MidAmerican earnings tabulation. What in the world is HomeServices, a real estate brokerage operation, doing in a section entitled “Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses?”

Well, its ownership came with MidAmerican when we bought control of that company in 2000. At that time, I focused on MidAmerican’s utility operations and barely noticed HomeServices, which then owned only a few real estate brokerage companies.

Since then, however, the company has regularly added residential brokers — three in 2012 — and now has about 16,000 agents in a string of major U.S. cities. (Our real estate brokerage companies are listed on page 107.) In 2012, our agents participated in $42 billion of home sales, up 33% from 2011.

Additionally, HomeServices last year purchased 67% of the Prudential and Real Living franchise operations, which together license 544 brokerage companies throughout the country and receive a small royalty on their sales. We have an arrangement to purchase the balance of those operations within five years. In the coming years, we will gradually rebrand both our franchisees and the franchise firms we own as Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices.

Ron Peltier has done an outstanding job in managing HomeServices during a depressed period. Now, as the housing market continues to strengthen, we expect earnings to rise significantly.

制造、服务和零售业务

我们在伯克希尔的这一部分活动涵盖了各个领域。不过,让我们看一下整个集团的汇总资产负债表和利润表。

资产负债表 2012年12月31日(单位:百万美元)
资产负债**和 权益
现金及等价物5,338应付票据1,454
应收款项及票据7,382其他流动负债8,527
存货9,675流动负债合计9,981
其他流动资产734
流动资产合计23,129递延税款4,907
商誉及其他无形资产26,017定期债务及其他负债5,826
固定资产18,871非控制性权益2,062
其他资产3,416伯克希尔权益48,657
71,43371,433
利润表*(单位:百万美元)*
20122011*2010
收入83,25572,40666,610
营业费用76,97867,23962,225
利息费用146130111
税前利润6,1315,0374,274
所得税及非控制性权益2,4321,9981,812
净利润3,6993,0392,462
* 包含自9月16日起的路博润收益。

我们符合公认会计准则(“GAAP”)的收入和费用数据见第29页。相比之下,上表中的营业费用数据是非GAAP的。特别是,它们排除了一些购买会计项目,主要是某些无形资产的摊销。我们以这种方式呈现数据,因为查理和我认为调整后的数字更准确地反映了表中汇总业务的真实费用和利润。

我不会解释所有的调整——有些调整很小且晦涩难懂——但认真的投资者应该理解无形资产的不同性质:有些确实随时间推移而贬值,而另一些则从不失去价值。例如,软件的摊销费用是非常真实的费用。然而,对其他无形资产(如客户关系的摊销)的费用则是通过购买会计规则产生的,显然不是真实费用。GAAP会计不区分这两类费用。也就是说,两者在计算收益时都被记录为费用——尽管从投资者的角度来看,它们可能完全不同。

在第29页的GAAP合规数据中,本节包含的公司的6亿美元摊销费用被作为费用扣除。我们认为其中大约20%是”真实的”——实际上这正是我们在上表中包含的部分——其余的不是。由于我们进行了许多收购,这一差异变得重要。

“非真实”的摊销费用在我们一些主要被投资公司中也很大。IBM近年来进行了许多小型收购,现在定期报告”调整后营业收益”,这是一种非GAAP数据,排除了某些购买会计调整。分析师关注这个数字,他们应该这样做。

然而,富国银行的”非真实”摊销费用并未被该公司强调,据我所知也从未在分析师报告中提及。富国银行报告的收益严重受到”核心存款摊销”费用的拖累,这意味着这些存款正在以相当快的速度消失。然而,核心存款实际上在增加。去年的费用约为15亿美元。除了GAAP会计之外,这笔巨额费用根本不是一项费用。

今天的会计课到此结束。为什么没有人喊”继续,继续?“

原文

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations

Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group.

Balance Sheet 12/31/12 (in millions)
AssetsLiabilities**and Equity
Cash and equivalents$ 5,338Notes payable$ 1,454
Accounts and notes receivable7,382Other current liabilities8,527
Inventory9,675Total current liabilities9,981
Other current assets734
Total current assets23,129Deferred taxes4,907
Goodwill and other intangibles26,017Term debt and other liabilities . .5,826
Fixed assets18,871Non-controlling interests2,062
Other assets3,416Berkshire equity48,657
$71,433$71,433
EarningsStatement(in millions)
20122011*2010
Revenues$83,255$72,406$66,610
Operating expenses76,97867,23962,225
Interest expense146130111
Pre-tax earnings6,1315,0374,274
Income taxes and non-controlling interests2,4321,9981,812
Net earnings$ 3,699$ 3,039$ 2,462
*Includes earnings of Lubrizol from September 16.

Our income and expense data conforming to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) is on page 29. In contrast, the operating expense figures above are non-GAAP. In particular, they exclude some purchase-accounting items, primarily the amortization of certain intangible assets. We present the data in this manner because Charlie and I believe the adjusted numbers more accurately reflect the real expenses and profits of the businesses aggregated in the table.

I won’t explain all of the adjustments — some are small and arcane — but serious investors should understand the disparate nature of intangible assets: Some truly deplete over time while others never lose value. With software, for example, amortization charges are very real expenses. Charges against other intangibles such as the amortization of customer relationships, however, arise through purchase-accounting rules and are clearly not real expenses. GAAP accounting draws no distinction between the two types of charges. Both, that is, are recorded as expenses when calculating earnings — even though from an investor’s viewpoint they could not be more different.

In the GAAP-compliant figures we show on page 29, amortization charges of $600 million for the companies included in this section are deducted as expenses. We would call about 20% of these “real” — and indeed that is the portion we have included in the table above — and the rest not. This difference has become significant because of the many acquisitions we have made.

“Non-real” amortization expense also looms large at some of our major investees. IBM has made many small acquisitions in recent years and now regularly reports “adjusted operating earnings,” a non-GAAP figure that excludes certain purchase-accounting adjustments. Analysts focus on this number, as they should.

A “non-real” amortization charge at Wells Fargo, however, is not highlighted by the company and never, to my knowledge, has been noted in analyst reports. The earnings that Wells Fargo reports are heavily burdened by an “amortization of core deposits” charge, the implication being that these deposits are disappearing at a fairly rapid clip. Yet core deposits regularly increase. The charge last year was about $1.5 billion. In no sense, except GAAP accounting, is this whopping charge an expense.

And that ends today’s accounting lecture. Why is no one shouting “More, more?”


本节中的公司群销售从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机的各种产品。有些业务拥有出色的经济特性,以无杠杆净有形资产的税后收益率衡量,从25%到超过100%不等。其他业务在12-20%的范围内产生良好回报。然而,少数业务的回报率很低,这是我在资本配置工作中犯下的一些严重错误的结果。

50多年前,查理告诉我,以合理的价格购买一家出色的企业,远比以出色的价格购买一家平庸的企业要好得多。尽管他的立场逻辑令人信服,但我有时还是会回归我讨价还价的老习惯,结果从尚可到糟糕不等。幸运的是,我的错误通常发生在进行较小收购时。我们的大型收购通常效果不错,在少数情况下甚至远远超出预期。

因此,作为一个整体来看,这一组的公司是出色的业务。它们使用了226亿美元的有形净资产,在此基础上实现了16.3%的税后收益率。

当然,如果支付的价格过高,具有出色经济特性的业务也可能是一项糟糕的投资。我们为大多数业务向有形净资产支付了显著的溢价,这一成本反映在我们显示的大量无形资产数字中。然而,总体而言,我们在该板块部署的资本获得了可观的回报。此外,这些业务的内在价值总体上大大超过其账面价值。即便如此,保险和受监管行业板块的内在价值与账面价值之间的差距更大。正是在那里,巨大的赢家存在。

原文

************

The crowd of companies in this section sell products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of the businesses enjoy terrific economics, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets that run from 25% after-tax to more than 100%. Others produce good returns in the area of 12-20%. A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation.

More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price. Despite the compelling logic of his position, I have sometimes reverted to my old habit of bargain-hunting, with results ranging from tolerable to terrible. Fortunately, my mistakes have usually occurred when I made smaller purchases. Our large acquisitions have generally worked out well and, in a few cases, more than well.

Viewed as a single entity, therefore, the companies in this group are an excellent business. They employ $22.6 billion of net tangible assets and, on that base, earned 16.3% after-tax.

Of course, a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if the price paid is excessive. We have paid substantial premiums to net tangible assets for most of our businesses, a cost that is reflected in the large figure we show for intangible assets. Overall, however, we are getting a decent return on the capital we have deployed in this sector. Furthermore, the intrinsic value of the businesses, in aggregate, exceeds their carrying value by a good margin. Even so, the difference between intrinsic value and carrying value in the insurance and regulated-industry segments is far greater. It is there that the huge winners reside.


马蒙提供了一个账面价值与内在价值之间存在明显且巨大差距的例子。让我解释一下这种差异的奇怪起源。

去年我告诉过你们,我们购买了马蒙的额外股份,将我们的持股比例提高到80%(高于2008年收购的64%)。我还告诉过你们,GAAP会计要求我们立即将2011年的收购以远低于我们支付的价格记录在账上

标题:2012年致股东信

第二部分/共两部分

只要一份报纸在其社区中是唯一的一份,其利润就必然异常丰厚;无论经营好坏,都几乎没什么差别。(正如一位南方出版商曾著名地承认:“我之所以能在社会上拥有崇高的地位,要归功于美国的两大伟大制度——裙带关系和垄断。”)

原文

As long as a newspaper was the only one in its community, its profits were certain to be extraordinary; whether it was managed well or poorly made little difference. (As one Southern publisher famously confessed, “I owe my exalted position in life to two great American institutions — nepotism and monopoly.”)

多年来,几乎所有城市都变成了单一报纸的城镇(或者容纳了两家竞争的报纸,但它们联合起来作为一个经济实体运营)。这种收缩是不可避免的,因为大多数人只愿意阅读和付费购买一份报纸。当存在竞争时,在发行量上取得显著领先优势的报纸几乎自动获得最多的广告。这使得广告吸引读者,读者又吸引广告。这种共生过程注定了较弱报纸的灭亡,并被称为“最肥者生存”。

原文

Over the years, almost all cities became one-newspaper towns (or harbored two competing papers that joined forces to operate as a single economic unit). This contraction was inevitable because most people wished to read and pay for only one paper. When competition existed, the paper that gained a significant lead in circulation almost automatically received the most ads. That left ads drawing readers and readers drawing ads. This symbiotic process spelled doom for the weaker paper and became known as “survival of the fattest.”

如今,世界已经改变。股市行情和全国体育赛事的详细信息在印刷机开始转动之前早已是旧闻。互联网提供了关于可用工作和房屋的广泛信息。电视用政治、国内和国际新闻轰炸观众。在一个又一个感兴趣的领域,报纸因此失去了它们的“首要地位”。而且,随着读者群的下降,广告也随之下降。(过去12年里,来自“招聘”分类广告的收入——长期以来是报纸的巨大收入来源——已暴跌超过90%。)

原文

Now the world has changed. Stock market quotes and the details of national sports events are old news long before the presses begin to roll. The Internet offers extensive information about both available jobs and homes. Television bombards viewers with political, national and international news. In one area of interest after another, newspapers have therefore lost their “primacy.” And, as their audiences have fallen, so has advertising. (Revenues from “help wanted” classified ads — long a huge source of income for newspapers — have plunged more than 90% in the past 12 years.)

然而,在提供本地新闻方面,报纸仍然占据着至高无上的地位。如果你想知道所在城镇正在发生什么——无论是关于市长、税收还是高中橄榄球的消息——没有任何东西可以替代一份尽职尽责的本地报纸。读者在看完一两段关于加拿大关税或巴基斯坦政治发展的报道后可能会目光呆滞;但一篇关于读者自己或其邻居的故事他们会读到结尾。只要存在普遍的社区意识,一份满足该社区特殊信息需求的报纸,对其相当一部分居民来说将仍然是不可或缺的。

原文

Newspapers continue to reign supreme, however, in the delivery of local news. If you want to know what’s going on in your town — whether the news is about the mayor or taxes or high school football — there is no substitute for a local newspaper that is doing its job. A reader’s eyes may glaze over after they take in a couple of paragraphs about Canadian tariffs or political developments in Pakistan; a story about the reader himself or his neighbors will be read to the end. Wherever there is a pervasive sense of community, a paper that serves the special informational needs of that community will remain indispensable to a significant portion of its residents.

然而,即使是有价值的产品,也可能因错误的商业战略而自我毁灭。在过去十年里,几乎所有规模较大的报纸都在经历这个过程。出版商——包括在布法罗的伯克希尔——都在互联网上免费提供他们的报纸,同时对实体报纸收取可观的费用。除了导致印刷版产品销量急剧而稳定地下降,这还能导致什么结果呢?此外,发行量的下降使得报纸对广告商的重要性降低。在这些条件下,过去的“良性循环”发生了逆转。

原文

Even a valuable product, however, can self-destruct from a faulty business strategy. And that process has been underway during the past decade at almost all papers of size. Publishers — including Berkshire in Buffalo — have offered their paper free on the Internet while charging meaningful sums for the physical specimen. How could this lead to anything other than a sharp and steady drop in sales of the printed product? Falling circulation, moreover, makes a paper less essential to advertisers. Under these conditions, the “virtuous circle” of the past reverses.

华尔街日报很早就采用了付费模式。但本地报纸的主要典范是小沃尔特·赫斯曼出版的阿肯色民主党公报。沃尔特也早早采用了付费模式,过去十年里,他的报纸发行量的保持情况远好于国内任何其他大型报纸。尽管有沃尔特强有力的榜样,但直到最近一两年,其他报纸,包括伯克希尔的报纸,才开始探索付费安排。无论哪种模式效果最好——答案尚不明确——都会被广泛效仿。

原文

The Wall Street Journal went to a pay model early. But the main exemplar for local newspapers is the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, published by Walter Hussman, Jr. Walter also adopted a pay format early, and over the past decade his paper has retained its circulation far better than any other large paper in the country. Despite Walter’s powerful example, it’s only been in the last year or so that other papers, including Berkshire’s, have explored pay arrangements. Whatever works best — and the answer is not yet clear — will be copied widely.

************

查理和我相信,那些向紧密联系的社区提供全面可靠信息,并且拥有明智互联网战略的报纸,将在很长一段时间内保持活力。我们不认为成功来自于削减新闻内容或发行频率。事实上,内容贫乏的新闻报道几乎必然导致读者稀少。而目前在一些大城镇或城市尝试的少于每日发行的做法——虽然短期内可能提高利润——但似乎注定会随着时间的推移削弱报纸的相关性。我们的目标是让我们的报纸充满读者感兴趣的内容,并向那些认为我们有用的读者收取适当的费用,无论他们是在手中还是在互联网上阅读我们的产品。

原文

************

Charlie and I believe that papers delivering comprehensive and reliable information to tightly-bound communities and having a sensible Internet strategy will remain viable for a long time. We do not believe that success will come from cutting either the news content or frequency of publication. Indeed, skimpy news coverage will almost certainly lead to skimpy readership. And the less-than-daily publication that is now being tried in some large towns or cities — while it may improve profits in the short term — seems certain to diminish the papers’ relevance over time. Our goal is to keep our papers loaded with content of interest to our readers and to be paid appropriately by those who find us useful, whether the product they view is in their hands or on the Internet.

我们的信心得到了奥马哈世界先驱报特里·克罗格卓越管理团队的支持,该团队有能力监督一大批报纸。然而,各报在新闻报道和编辑观点上将是独立的。(我投票支持奥巴马;在我们的12家支持某位总统候选人的日报中,有10家选择了罗姆尼。)

原文

Our confidence is buttressed by the availability of Terry Kroeger’s outstanding management group at the Omaha World-Herald, a team that has the ability to oversee a large group of papers. The individual papers, however, will be independent in their news coverage and editorial opinions. (I voted for Obama; of our 12 dailies that endorsed a presidential candidate, 10 opted for Romney.)

我们的报纸当然未能免受那些一直导致收入下降的力量的影响。尽管如此,我们在2012年全年拥有的六家小型日报当年的收入保持不变,这一结果远优于大城市日报的表现。此外,我们在全年运营的两家大型报纸——布法罗新闻报奥马哈世界先驱报——将收入损失控制在3%,这也是一个高于平均水平的结果。在美国50个大都市区的报纸中,我们的布法罗和奥马哈报纸在其本地区的发行渗透率排名接近前列。

原文

Our newspapers are certainly not insulated from the forces that have been driving revenues downward. Still, the six small dailies we owned throughout 2012 had unchanged revenues for the year, a result far superior to that experienced by big-city dailies. Moreover, the two large papers we operated throughout the year — The Buffalo News and the Omaha World-Herald — held their revenue loss to 3%, which was also an above-average outcome. Among newspapers in America’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, our Buffalo and Omaha papers rank near the top in circulation penetration of their home territories.

这种受欢迎程度并非偶然:这要归功于这些报纸的编辑——新闻报的玛格丽特·沙利文和世界先驱报的迈克·赖利——他们提供的信息使得这些出版物对关心社区的读者来说不可或缺。(我很遗憾地说,玛格丽特最近离开了我们,加入了纽约时报,该报的工作邀请很难拒绝。那家报纸做了一笔很棒的招聘,我们祝她一切顺利。)

原文

This popularity is no accident: Credit the editors of those papers — Margaret Sullivan at the News and Mike Reilly at the World-Herald — for delivering information that has made their publications indispensable to community-interested readers. (Margaret, I regret to say, recently left us to join The New York Times, whose job offers are tough to turn down. That paper made a great hire, and we wish her the best.)

伯克希尔从其报纸获得的现金收益几乎肯定会随着时间的推移而呈下降趋势。即使是一个明智的互联网战略也无法阻止轻微的侵蚀。但以我们的成本计算,我相信这些报纸将达到或超过我们对收购的经济测试。迄今为止的结果支持了这一信念。

原文

Berkshire’s cash earnings from its papers will almost certainly trend downward over time. Even a sensible Internet strategy will not be able to prevent modest erosion. At our cost, however, I believe these papers will meet or exceed our economic test for acquisitions. Results to date support that belief.

然而,查理和我仍然按照经济准则第11条(详见第99页)运作,并且不会继续经营任何注定会持续亏损的业务。我们批量从Media General收购的一家日报在该公司的所有权下严重亏损。在分析了该报的业绩后,我们看不到扭转亏损的办法,于是不情愿地将其关闭。然而,我们剩余的所有日报应该都能在很长一段时间内保持盈利。(它们列在第108页。)在合适的价格下——这意味着以当前盈利的非常低的倍数——我们将购买更多我们喜欢类型的报纸。

原文

Charlie and I, however, still operate under economic principle 11 (detailed on page 99) and will not continue the operation of any business doomed to unending losses. One daily paper that we acquired in a bulk purchase from Media General was significantly unprofitable under that company’s ownership. After analyzing the paper’s results, we saw no remedy for the losses and reluctantly shut it down. All of our remaining dailies, however, should be profitable for a long time to come. (They are listed on page 108.) At appropriate prices — and that means at a very low multiple of current earnings — we will purchase more papers of the type we like.

************

伯克希尔报纸业务的一个里程碑发生在年底,当时斯坦·利普西从布法罗新闻报出版人的职位上退休。对我来说,毫不夸张地说,如果没有斯坦,新闻报现在可能已经不存在了。

原文

************

A milestone in Berkshire’s newspaper operations occurred at yearend when Stan Lipsey retired as publisher of The Buffalo News. It’s no exaggeration for me to say that the News might now be extinct were it not for Stan.

查理和我在1977年4月收购了新闻报。它是一份晚报,在工作日占据主导地位,但没有周日版。在全国范围内,发行趋势正转向早报。此外,周日版对大城市日报的盈利能力变得越来越关键。没有周日版,新闻报注定会输给它的早报竞争对手,后者拥有一个内容丰厚且根基牢固的周日产品。

原文

Charlie and I acquired the News in April 1977. It was an evening paper, dominant on weekdays but lacking a Sunday edition. Throughout the country, the circulation trend was toward morning papers. Moreover, Sunday was becoming ever more critical to the profitability of metropolitan dailies. Without a Sunday paper, the News was destined to lose out to its morning competitor, which had a fat and entrenched Sunday product.

因此,我们在1977年底开始出版周日版。然后,一切都乱套了。我们的竞争对手起诉了我们,地区法官查尔斯·布里恩特二世做出了一项严厉的裁决,阻碍了我们报纸的推出。他的裁决在17个月后被第二巡回上诉法院以3比0的严厉驳斥推翻。在上诉待决期间,我们失去了发行量,大量失血,并始终处于倒闭的危险之中。

原文

We therefore began to print a Sunday edition late in 1977. And then all hell broke loose. Our competitor sued us, and District Judge Charles Brieant, Jr. authored a harsh ruling that crippled the introduction of our paper. His ruling was later reversed — after 17 long months — in a 3-0 sharp rebuke by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. While the appeal was pending, we lost circulation, hemorrhaged money and stood in constant danger of going out of business.

斯坦·利普西出场了,他是我从1960年代就认识的朋友,他和他的妻子曾向伯克希尔出售过一家奥马哈的小型周报。我发现斯坦是一位非凡的报人,熟悉发行、生产、销售和编辑的各个方面。(他是帮助那家小周报在1973年获得普利策奖的关键人物。)所以当我在新闻报遇到大麻烦时,我请斯坦离开他在奥马哈舒适的生活,到布法罗接手。

原文

Enter Stan Lipsey, a friend of mine from the 1960s, who, with his wife, had sold Berkshire a small Omaha weekly. I found Stan to be an extraordinary newspaperman, knowledgeable about every aspect of circulation, production, sales and editorial. (He was a key person in gaining that small weekly a Pulitzer Prize in 1973.) So when I was in big trouble at the News, I asked Stan to leave his comfortable way of life in Omaha to take over in Buffalo.

他毫不犹豫。与我们的编辑穆雷·莱特一起,斯坦在非常黑暗的日子里坚持了四年,直到1982年新闻报赢得了竞争。自那以后,尽管布法罗经济困难,新闻报的表现一直非常出色。无论是作为朋友还是作为管理者,斯坦都是最棒的。

原文

He never hesitated. Along with Murray Light, our editor, Stan persevered through four years of very dark days until the News won the competitive struggle in 1982. Ever since, despite a difficult Buffalo economy, the performance of the News has been exceptional. As both a friend and as a manager, Stan is simply the best.

股息

许多伯克希尔股东——包括我的一些好朋友——希望伯克希尔支付现金股息。令他们困惑的是,我们喜欢伯克希尔持有的大多数股票所收到的股息,但自己却分文不付。那么,让我们审视一下股息何时对股东有意义,何时没有意义。

原文

Dividends

A number of Berkshire shareholders — including some of my good friends — would like Berkshire to pay a cash dividend. It puzzles them that we relish the dividends we receive from most of the stocks that Berkshire owns, but pay out nothing ourselves. So let’s examine when dividends do and don’t make sense for shareholders.

一家盈利的公司可以以多种方式配置其收益(这些方式并非相互排斥)。公司管理层首先应该审视其当前业务提供的再投资机会——例如提高效率、地域扩张、拓展和改进产品线,或者以其他方式拓宽将公司与其竞争对手隔离开来的经济护城河。

原文

A profitable company can allocate its earnings in various ways (which are not mutually exclusive). A company’s management should first examine reinvestment possibilities offered by its current business — projects to become more efficient, expand territorially, extend and improve product lines or to otherwise widen the economic moat separating the company from its competitors.

我要求我们子公司的经理们始终专注于拓宽护城河的机会,他们发现了许多具有经济意义的项目。但有时我们的经理们也会失手。失败的通常原因是,他们从自己想要的答案开始,然后往回推导寻找支持的理由。当然,这个过程是潜意识的;这正是它如此危险的原因。

原文

I ask the managers of our subsidiaries to unendingly focus on moat-widening opportunities, and they find many that make economic sense. But sometimes our managers misfire. The usual cause of failure is that they start with the answer they want and then work backwards to find a supporting rationale. Of course, the process is subconscious; that’s what makes it so dangerous.

你们的主席也未能免于此罪。在伯克希尔1986年的年报中,我描述了我们在最初纺织业务上二十年的管理努力和资本投入是如何徒劳无功的。我希望这项业务成功,并一厢情愿地做出了一系列糟糕的决定。(我甚至买了另一家新英格兰纺织公司。)但只有迪士尼电影里,愿望才能成真;在商业中,它是毒药。

原文

Your chairman has not been free of this sin. In Berkshire’s 1986 annual report, I described how twenty years of management effort and capital improvements in our original textile business were an exercise in futility. I wanted the business to succeed and wished my way into a series of bad decisions. (I even bought another New England textile company.) But wishing makes dreams come true only in Disney movies; it’s poison in business.

尽管过去有过这样的失误,但我们的首要任务始终是检查可用资金是否能够被明智地配置到我们各项业务中去。我们在2012年创纪录的121亿美元固定资产投资和附加收购表明,在伯克希尔,这是一个资本配置的沃土。而且我们有一个优势:由于我们在经济的许多领域运营,我们拥有的选择范围比大多数公司要广泛得多。在决定做什么时,我们可以灌溉花朵,跳过杂草。

原文

Despite such past miscues, our first priority with available funds will always be to examine whether they can be intelligently deployed in our various businesses. Our record $12.1 billion of fixed-asset investments and bolt-on acquisitions in 2012 demonstrate that this is a fertile field for capital allocation at Berkshire. And here we have an advantage: Because we operate in so many areas of the economy, we enjoy a range of choices far wider than that open to most corporations. In deciding what to do, we can water the flowers and skip over the weeds.

即使我们在现有业务中配置了大量资本,伯克希尔仍会定期产生大量额外现金。因此,我们的下一步是寻找与现有业务无关的收购。在这里,我们的测试很简单:查理和我认为我们能否进行一项交易,该交易很可能使我们的股东在每股基础上的财富比收购前更丰厚?

原文

Even after we deploy hefty amounts of capital in our current operations, Berkshire will regularly generate a lot of additional cash. Our next step, therefore, is to search for acquisitions unrelated to our current businesses. Here our test is simple: Do Charlie and I think we can effect a transaction that is likely to leave our shareholders wealthier on a per-share basis than they were prior to the acquisition?

我在收购中犯过很多错误,未来还会犯更多。但总体而言,我们的记录令人满意,这意味着我们的股东今天的财富远远超过如果我们将用于收购的资金投入到股票回购或股息中的结果。

原文

I have made plenty of mistakes in acquisitions and will make more. Overall, however, our record is satisfactory, which means that our shareholders are far wealthier today than they would be if the funds we used for acquisitions had instead been devoted to share repurchases or dividends.

但是,使用标准的免责声明,过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。这在伯克希尔尤其如此:由于我们目前的规模,进行既有意义又明智的收购现在比过去大多数年份都更加困难。

原文

But, to use the standard disclaimer, past performance is no guarantee of future results. That’s particularly true at Berkshire: Because of our present size, making acquisitions that are both meaningful and sensible is now more difficult than it has been during most of our years.

尽管如此,一笔大规模交易仍然为我们提供了显著增加每股内在价值的可能性。BNSF就是一个例子:它现在的价值远高于我们的账面价值。如果我们把购买它所需的资金用于分红或回购,你和我的境况会更糟。尽管BNSF这种规模的大型交易很少见,但海洋中仍然存在一些鲸鱼。

原文

Nevertheless, a large deal still offers us possibilities to add materially to per-share intrinsic value. BNSF is a case in point: It is now worth considerably more than our carrying value. Had we instead allocated the funds required for this purchase to dividends or repurchases, you and I would have been worse off. Though large transactions of the BNSF kind will be rare, there are still some whales in the ocean.

资金使用的第三种方式——回购——对于一家公司来说,当其股票交易价格相对于保守计算的内在价值有显著折价时是明智的。事实上,有纪律的回购是明智使用资金的最可靠方式:当你以80美分或更低的价格购买1美元钞票时,很难出错。我们在去年的报告中解释了我们的回购标准,如果有机会,我们将大量购买我们的股票。我们最初表示不会支付超过账面价值110%的价格,但事实证明这不现实。因此,我们在12月将上限提高到120%,当时有一大笔股票以约账面价值116%的价格可供购买。

原文

The third use of funds — repurchases — is sensible for a company when its shares sell at a meaningful discount to conservatively calculated intrinsic value. Indeed, disciplined repurchases are the surest way to use funds intelligently: It’s hard to go wrong when you’re buying dollar bills for 80¢ or less. We explained our criteria for repurchases in last year’s report and, if the opportunity presents itself, we will buy large quantities of our stock. We originally said we would not pay more than 110% of book value, but that proved unrealistic. Therefore, we increased the limit to 120% in December when a large block became available at about 116% of book value.

但永远不要忘记:在回购决策中,价格至关重要。当回购价格高于内在价值时,价值就会被摧毁。董事们和我认为,在达到我们120%上限的情况下进行回购,能持续股东带来有意义的益处。

原文

But never forget: In repurchase decisions, price is all-important. Value is destroyed when purchases are made above intrinsic value. The directors and I believe that continuing shareholders are benefitted in a meaningful way by purchases up to our 120% limit.

这就引出了股息问题。在这里,我们必须做一些假设并运用一些数学知识。这些数字需要仔细阅读,但它们对于理解支持或反对股息的理由至关重要。所以请耐心听我讲。

原文

And that brings us to dividends. Here we have to make a few assumptions and use some math. The numbers will require careful reading, but they are essential to understanding the case for and against dividends. So bear with me.

我们首先假设你和我是一家净资产为200万美元企业的平等所有者。该企业的有形净资产收益率为12%——即24万美元——并且可以合理预期再投资收益同样为12%。此外,总有外部人士希望以125%的净资产价格买下我们的企业。因此,我们各自拥有的价值现在是125万美元。

原文

We’ll start by assuming that you and I are the equal owners of a business with $2 million of net worth. The business earns 12% on tangible net worth — $240,000 — and can reasonably expect to earn the same 12% on reinvested earnings. Furthermore, there are outsiders who always wish to buy into our business at 125% of net worth. Therefore, the value of what we each own is now $1.25 million.

你希望我们两位股东获得公司年度收益的三分之一,并将三分之二再投资。你觉得这个计划能在你对当前收入和资本增长的需求之间取得良好平衡。所以你建议我们支付8万美元的当期收益,保留16万美元用于增加企业未来收益。第一年,你的股息将是4万美元,随着收益增长并且三分之一派息率保持不变,你的股息也会增长。总的来说,股息和股票价值每年将增长8%(净资产收益率12%减去支付的4%净资产)。

原文

You would like to have the two of us shareholders receive one-third of our company’s annual earnings and have two-thirds be reinvested. That plan, you feel, will nicely balance your needs for both current income and capital growth. So you suggest that we pay out $80,000 of current earnings and retain $160,000 to increase the future earnings of the business. In the first year, your dividend would be $40,000, and as earnings grew and the one-third payout was maintained, so too would your dividend. In total, dividends and stock value would increase 8% each year (12% earned on net worth less 4% of net worth paid out).

十年后,我们公司的净资产将达到4,317,850美元(原始200万美元以8%复利计算),你下一年的股息将为86,357美元。我们每人将拥有价值2,698,656美元的股票(我们各自一半公司净资产的125%)。我们将从此幸福地生活——股息和股票价值继续以每年8%的速度增长。

原文

After ten years our company would have a net worth of $4,317,850 (the original $2 million compounded at 8%) and your dividend in the upcoming year would be $86,357. Each of us would have shares worth $2,698,656 (125% of our half of the company’s net worth). And we would live happily ever after — with dividends and the value of our stock continuing to grow at 8% annually.

然而,还有另一种方法会让我们更快乐。在这种情景下,我们将所有收益留在公司,并且每人每年出售3.2%的股份。由于这些股份将以账面价值的125%出售,这种方法最初将产生相同的4万美元现金,并且这一金额将逐年增长。我们称这个选项为“卖出”方法。

原文

There is an alternative approach, however, that would leave us even happier. Under this scenario, we would leave all earnings in the company and each sell 3.2% of our shares annually. Since the shares would be sold at 125% of book value, this approach would produce the same $40,000 of cash initially, a sum that would grow annually. Call this option the “sell-off” approach.

在这种“卖出”情景下,十年后我们公司的净资产增加到6,211,696美元(200万美元以12%复利计算)。由于我们每年都会出售股份,我们的持股比例将会下降,十年后,我们将各自拥有该公司36.12%的股份。即便如此,你当时在公司净资产中的份额将是2,243,540美元。请记住,归属于我们每个人的每一美元净资产都可以卖1.25美元。因此,你剩余股份的市场价值将是2,804,425美元,比我们采用股息方法时的股份价值高出约4%。

原文

Under this “sell-off” scenario, the net worth of our company increases to $6,211,696 after ten years ($2 million compounded at 12%). Because we would be selling shares each year, our percentage ownership would have declined, and, after ten years, we would each own 36.12% of the business. Even so, your share of the net worth of the company at that time would be $2,243,540. And, remember, every dollar of net worth attributable to each of us can be sold for $1.25. Therefore, the market value of your remaining shares would be $2,804,425, about 4% greater than the value of your shares if we had followed the dividend approach.

此外,根据卖出政策,你每年收到的现金现在将比你在股息情景下收到的多4%。瞧!——你每年将有更多的现金可花,并且拥有更多的资本价值。

原文

Moreover, your annual cash receipts from the sell-off policy would now be running 4% more than you would have received under the dividend scenario. Voila! — you would have both more cash to spend annually and more capital value.

这个计算当然假设我们的假想公司能够平均每年获得12%的净资产收益率,并且其股东能够以平均125%的账面价值出售他们的股份。关于这一点,标准普尔500指数的净资产收益率远高于12%,并且其售价远高于账面价值的125%。这两个假设对于伯克希尔来说似乎也是合理的,虽然当然不能保证。

原文

This calculation, of course, assumes that our hypothetical company can earn an average of 12% annually on net worth and that its shareholders can sell their shares for an average of 125% of book value. To that point, the S&P 500 earns considerably more than 12% on net worth and sells at a price far above 125% of that net worth. Both assumptions also seem reasonable for Berkshire, though certainly not assured.

此外,从积极的一面来看,这些假设也有可能被超越。如果真是这样,卖出政策的论点就变得更加强有力。纵观伯克希尔的历史——诚然,这段历史几乎无法重演——卖出政策为股东带来的结果将显著优于股息政策。

原文

Moreover, on the plus side, there also is a possibility that the assumptions will be exceeded. If they are, the argument for the sell-off policy becomes even stronger. Over Berkshire’s history — admittedly one that won’t come close to being repeated — the sell-off policy would have produced results for shareholders dramatically superior to the dividend policy.

除了有利的数学计算之外,还有两个且重要的理由支持卖出政策。首先,股息政策向所有股东强加了特定的现金支出方案。例如,如果政策是支付40%的收益,那么希望获得30%或50%的股东将无法如愿。我们的60万股东在现金需求方面涵盖了各种情况。可以肯定地说,他们中的很多人——也许是大多数——处于净储蓄模式,并且逻辑上应该更倾向于不支付任何股息。

原文

Aside from the favorable math, there are two further — and important — arguments for a sell-off policy. First, dividends impose a specific cash-out policy upon all shareholders. If, say, 40% of earnings is the policy, those who wish 30% or 50% will be thwarted. Our 600,000 shareholders cover the waterfront in their desires for cash. It is safe to say, however, that a great many of them — perhaps even most of them — are in a net-savings mode and logically should prefer no payment at all.

另一方面,卖出替代方案让每位股东可以在现金收入和资本积累之间做出自己的选择。一位股东可以选择提取,例如,年度收益的60%,而其他股东可以选择20%或完全不提取。当然,在我们支付股息的情景下,股东可以转身用他的股息购买更多股份。但他这样做会吃亏:他既要缴纳税款,还要支付25%的溢价来将他的股息再投资。(请记住,公开市场购买股票的价格是账面价值的125%。)

原文

The sell-off alternative, on the other hand, lets each shareholder make his own choice between cash receipts and capital build-up. One shareholder can elect to cash out, say, 60% of annual earnings while other shareholders elect 20% or nothing at all. Of course, a shareholder in our dividend-paying scenario could turn around and use his dividends to purchase more shares. But he would take a beating in doing so: He would both incur taxes and also pay a 25% premium to get his dividend reinvested. (Keep remembering, open-market purchases of the stock take place at 125% of book value.)

股息方法的第二个劣势同样重要:对于所有纳税股东来说,税收后果都较差——通常逊于卖出计划。在股息计划下,股东每年收到的所有现金都要纳税,而卖出计划只对现金收入的利得部分征税。

原文

The second disadvantage of the dividend approach is of equal importance: The tax consequences for all taxpaying shareholders are inferior — usually far inferior — to those under the sell-off program. Under the dividend program, all of the cash received by shareholders each year is taxed whereas the sell-off program results in tax on only the gain portion of the cash receipts.

让我结束这个数学练习——我能听到你们在我收起牙钻时欢呼——用我自己的例子来说明,股东定期出售股份如何能够伴随着对其业务投资的增加。在过去的七年里,我每年捐出大约4¼%的伯克希尔股份。通过这个过程,我最初的712,497,000股B类等价股(经拆股调整)减少到528,525,623股。显然,我在公司的持股比例显著下降了。

原文

Let me end this math exercise — and I can hear you cheering as I put away the dentist drill — by using my own case to illustrate how a shareholder’s regular disposals of shares can be accompanied by an increased investment in his or her business. For the last seven years, I have annually given away about 4¼% of my Berkshire shares. Through this process, my original position of 712,497,000 B-equivalent shares (split-adjusted) has decreased to 528,525,623 shares. Clearly my ownership percentage of the company has significantly decreased.

然而,我在该业务中的投资实际上增加了:我目前在伯克希尔权益的账面价值,大大超过了七年前我的持股所对应的账面价值。(实际数字是2005年的282亿美元和2012年的402亿美元。)换句话说,尽管我在公司的所有权大幅减少,但我在伯克希尔工作的资金要多得多。同样正确的是,我在伯克希尔内在商业价值和公司正常盈利能力中所占的份额也远大于2005年。随着时间的推移,我预计这种价值的增长将继续——尽管肯定是不规则的——即使我现在每年捐出超过4½%的股份(增加的原因是最近我将对某些基金会的终身承诺翻了一番)。

原文

Yet my investment in the business has actually increased: The book value of my current interest in Berkshire considerably exceeds the book value attributable to my holdings of seven years ago. (The actual figures are $28.2 billion for 2005 and $40.2 billion for 2012.) In other words, I now have far more money working for me at Berkshire even though my ownership of the company has materially decreased. It’s also true that my share of both Berkshire’s intrinsic business value and the company’s normal earning power is far greater than it was in 2005. Over time, I expect this accretion of value to continue — albeit in a decidedly irregular fashion — even as I now annually give away more than 4½% of my shares (the increase having occurred because I’ve recently doubled my lifetime pledges to certain foundations).

************

最重要的是,股息政策应该始终清晰、一致且合理。反复无常的政策会迷惑所有者,并赶走潜在投资者。菲尔·费雪在54年前他的《普通股和不普通的利润》第七章中精彩地阐述了这一点,这本书在严肃投资者的史上最佳书籍列表中仅次于《聪明的投资者》和1940年版的《证券分析》。菲尔解释说,你可以成功地经营一家卖汉堡的餐厅,或者一家以中餐为特色的餐厅。但你不能在两者之间反复无常地切换,并留住任何一个的粉丝。

原文

************

Above all, dividend policy should always be clear, consistent and rational. A capricious policy will confuse owners and drive away would-be investors. Phil Fisher put it wonderfully 54 years ago in Chapter 7 of his Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, a book that ranks behind only The Intelligent Investor and the 1940 edition of Security Analysis in the all-time-best list for the serious investor. Phil explained that you can successfully run a restaurant that serves hamburgers or, alternatively, one that features Chinese food. But you can’t switch capriciously between the two and retain the fans of either.

大多数公司支付稳定的股息,通常试图每年增加股息,并且非常不情愿削减股息。我们的“四大”投资组合公司遵循这种明智且易理解的方法,并且在某些情况下,也非常积极地回购股票。

原文

Most companies pay consistent dividends, generally trying to increase them annually and cutting them very reluctantly. Our “Big Four” portfolio companies follow this sensible and understandable approach and, in certain cases, also repurchase shares quite aggressively.

我们赞赏他们的行动,并希望他们继续沿着目前的方向前进。我们喜欢增加的股息,并且我们喜欢在合适的价格进行回购。

原文

We applaud their actions and hope they continue on their present paths. We like increased dividends, and we love repurchases at appropriate prices.

然而,在伯克希尔,我们始终坚持一种不同的方法,我们知道这是明智的,并且希望通过你刚刚阅读的段落,这已经变得易于理解。只要我们认为关于账面价值增长和市场溢价倍数的假设似乎是合理的,我们就将坚持这一政策。如果这两个因素的前景发生实质性恶化,我们将重新审视我们的行动。

原文

At Berkshire, however, we have consistently followed a different approach that we know has been sensible and that we hope has been made understandable by the paragraphs you have just read. We will stick with this policy as long as we believe our assumptions about the book-value buildup and the market-price premium seem reasonable. If the prospects for either factor change materially for the worse, we will reexamine our actions.

年会

年会将于5月4日星期六在世纪互联中心举行。凯莉·索瓦将负责组织。(虽然这是个新名字,但还是去年那位出色的凯莉;她在六月结婚了,嫁给了一个非常幸运的家伙。)我们总部团队的所有人都协助她;整个活动是我们自己制作的,我为那些组织它的人感到无比自豪。

原文

The Annual Meeting

The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 4th at the CenturyLink Center. Carrie Sova will be in charge. (Though that’s a new name, it’s the same wonderful Carrie as last year; she got married in June to a very lucky guy.) All of our headquarters group pitches in to help her; the whole affair is a homemade production, and I couldn’t be more proud of those who put it together.

大门将在早上7点开放,7点30分我们将举行第二届国际报纸投掷挑战赛。目标将是克莱顿住宅的门廊,距离投掷线正好35英尺。去年我成功击退了所有挑战者。但现在伯克希尔收购了大量报纸,随之带来了许多投掷人才(或者投掷者是这么声称的)。来看看他们的才华是否与他们的说辞相符。更好的是,加入进来。报纸将有36到42页,你必须自己折叠它们(不允许用橡皮筋)。

原文

The doors will open at 7 a.m., and at 7:30 we will have our second International Newspaper Tossing Challenge. The target will be the porch of a Clayton Home, precisely 35 feet from the throwing line. Last year I successfully fought off all challengers. But now Berkshire has acquired a large number of newspapers and with them came much tossing talent (or so the throwers claim). Come see whether their talent matches their talk. Better yet, join in. The papers will be 36 to 42 pages and you must fold them yourself (no rubber bands).

8点30分,一部新的伯克希尔电影将放映。一小时后,我们将开始问答环节,该环节(中间在世纪互联的摊位休息午餐)将持续到下午3点30分。短暂休息后,查理和我会在下午3点45分召开年会。如果你决定在当天的提问时间离开,请在查理发言时离开。

原文

At 8:30, a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking.

当然,离开的最佳理由是去购物。我们将通过用来自数十家伯克希尔子公司的产品填满与会场相邻的194,300平方英尺的大厅来帮助你们这样做。去年,你们尽了力,大多数地点都创下了销售记录。在九个小时的时间里,我们卖出了1,090双贾斯汀靴子(每30秒一双),10,010磅喜诗糖果,12,879把Quikut刀具(每分钟24把)和5,784双Wells Lamont手套,这总是热门商品。但你们可以做得更好。记住:任何说钱买不到幸福的人,只是没有在我们的年会上购物过。

原文

The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do so by filling the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period, we sold 1,090 pairs of Justin boots, (that’s a pair every 30 seconds), 10,010 pounds of See’s candy, 12,879 Quikut knives (24 knives per minute) and 5,784 pairs of Wells Lamont gloves, always a hot item. But you can do better. Remember: Anyone who says money can’t buy happiness simply hasn’t shopped at our meeting.

去年,我们的跑鞋公司Brooks首次参展,销售额达到15万美元。Brooks现在非常火爆:其2012年的销量增长了34%,而这还是在2011年同样增长34%的基础上。该公司管理层预计2013年将再增长23%。我们将在年会上再次提供一款特别的纪念鞋。

原文

Last year, Brooks, our running shoe company, exhibited for the first time and ran up sales of $150,000. Brooks is on fire: Its volume in 2012 grew 34%, and that was on top of a similar 34% gain in 2011. The company’s management expects another jump of 23% in 2013. We will again have a special commemorative shoe to offer at the meeting.

周日早上8点,我们将发起“伯克希尔5公里”赛跑,从世纪互联中心出发。参与的全部细节将包含在《访客指南》中,您将随会议凭证一同收到。我们将设置多个竞赛类别,包括一个针对媒体的类别(报道他们的表现会很有趣)。遗憾的是,我将放弃跑步;总得有人来鸣枪发令。

原文

On Sunday at 8 a.m., we will initiate the “Berkshire 5K,” a race starting at the CenturyLink. Full details for participating will be included in the Visitor’s Guide that you will receive with your credentials for the meeting. We will have plenty of categories for competition, including one for the media. (It will be fun to report on their performance.) Regretfully, I will forego running; someone has to man the starting gun.

我应该提醒你,我们有很多本土人才。泰德·韦施勒曾跑出3小时01分的马拉松成绩。吉姆·韦伯,Brooks充满活力的CEO,是另一位速度型选手,最佳成绩是3小时31分。托德·库姆斯专攻铁人三项,但5公里成绩曾被计时为22分钟。

原文

I should warn you that we have a lot of home-grown talent. Ted Weschler has run the marathon in 3:01. Jim Weber, Brooks’ dynamic CEO, is another speedster with a 3:31 best. Todd Combs specializes in the triathlon, but has been clocked at 22 minutes in the 5K.

然而,这只是开始:我们的董事们脚步也很敏捷(也就是说,我们的一些董事是这样的)。史蒂夫·伯克曾跑出令人惊叹的2小时39分波士顿马拉松成绩。(这是家族传统;他的妻子格蕾琴以3小时25分完成了纽约马拉松。)夏洛特·盖曼的最佳成绩是3小时37分,苏·德克尔在纽约以3小时36分冲过终点线。查理没有回复他的调查问卷。

原文

That, however, is just the beginning: Our directors are also fleet of foot (that is, some of our directors are). Steve Burke has run an amazing 2:39 Boston marathon. (It’s a family thing; his wife, Gretchen, finished the New York marathon in 3:25.) Charlotte Guyman’s best is 3:37, and Sue Decker crossed the tape in New York in 3:36. Charlie did not return his questionnaire.

GEICO将在购物区设立一个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶级顾问提供服务。请停下来获取报价。在大多数情况下,GEICO可以为您提供股东折扣(通常为8%)。这项特别优惠在我们运营的51个司法管辖区中的44个得到允许。(一个补充说明:如果您符合其他折扣条件,例如某些团体的折扣,则不能叠加此项折扣。)请带上您现有保险的详细信息,看看我们是否能为您省钱。我相信至少有一半的你们可以。

原文

GEICO will have a booth in the shopping area, staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country. Stop by for a quote. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least half of you, I believe we can.

一定要参观Bookworm。它将携带大约35本书和DVD,包括几本新书。自1977年以来一直协助我编辑这封信的卡罗尔·卢米斯最近撰写了《踏舞去工作:沃伦·巴菲特谈几乎所有事情》一书。我和她共同签售了500本,仅在年会上有售。

原文

Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry about 35 books and DVDs, including a couple of new ones. Carol Loomis, who has been invaluable to me in editing this letter since 1977, has recently authored Tap Dancing to Work: Warren Buffett on Practically Everything. She and I have cosigned 500 copies, available exclusively at the meeting.

小威廉·桑代克的《局外人》是一本关于在资本配置方面表现出色的CEO的杰出著作。其中有一章关于我们的董事汤姆·墨菲的深刻见解,他是我见过的最优秀的商业经理。我还推荐杰克·博格尔的《文化的冲突》和劳拉·里滕豪斯的《字里行间投资》。如果您需要邮寄您购买的书籍,附近将提供邮寄服务。

原文

The Outsiders, by William Thorndike, Jr., is an outstanding book about CEOs who excelled at capital allocation. It has an insightful chapter on our director, Tom Murphy, overall the best business manager I’ve ever met. I also recommend The Clash of the Cultures by Jack Bogle and Laura Rittenhouse’s Investing Between the Lines. Should you need to ship your book purchases, a shipping service will be available nearby.

奥马哈世界先驱报将再次设立展位,提供几本它最近出版的书。热血的Husker球迷——有哪个内布拉斯加州人不是吗?——肯定会想买《不可战胜》。它讲述了1993-97年间内布拉斯加橄榄球的故事,那是汤姆·奥斯本的球队取得60胜3负的黄金时代。

原文

The Omaha World-Herald will again have a booth, offering a few books it has recently published. Red-blooded Husker fans — is there any Nebraskan who isn’t one? — will surely want to purchase Unbeatable. It tells the story of Nebraska football during 1993-97, a golden era in which Tom Osborne’s teams went 60-3.

如果您是一位大手笔的消费者——或者渴望成为这样的人——请在周六中午12点到下午5点之间参观奥马哈机场东侧的Signature Aviation。那里我们将展示一队NetJets飞机,它们会让您心跳加速。乘巴士来;乘私人飞机离开。小小的奢侈一下。

原文

If you are a big spender — or aspire to become one — visit Signature Aviation on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5:00 p.m. on Saturday. There we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft that will get your pulse racing. Come by bus; leave by private jet. Live a little.

随本报告附上的代理材料中的附件说明了如何获得参加会议和其他活动所需的凭证。航空公司有时会在伯克希尔周末抬高票价。如果您来自远方,请比较飞往堪萨斯城与奥马哈的费用。两城之间的车程大约2½小时,您可能会节省大量资金,特别是如果您原本计划在奥马哈租车的话。把省下来的钱花在我们这里。

原文

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City versus Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2½ hours, and it may be that you can save significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. Spend the savings with us.

在内布拉斯加家具城,位于72街Dodge和Pacific之间的77英亩土地上,我们将再次提供“伯克希尔周末”折扣价格。去年,该店在年会销售期间实现了3590万美元的营业额,这是一个创纪录的数字,让其他零售商眼红。要获得伯克希尔折扣,您必须在4月30日(星期二)至5月6日(星期一)期间购物,并出示您的会议凭证。该期间的特别定价甚至适用于几家享有盛誉的制造商的产品,这些制造商通常有禁止打折的铁律,但本着我们股东周末的精神,为您破例。我们感谢他们的合作。NFM周一至周六上午10点至晚上9点营业,周日上午10点至下午6点营业。今年周六下午5点30分至晚上8点,NFM将举办一次野餐,邀请大家参加。

原文

At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year the store did $35.9 million of business during its annual meeting sale, an all-time record that makes other retailers turn green. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, April 30th and Monday, May 6th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited.

在Borsheims,我们将再次举办仅限股东参加的两场活动。第一场是5月3日星期五下午6点至晚上9点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场,主要的庆典,将于5月5日星期日上午9点至下午4点举行。周六,我们将营业至下午6点。近年来,我们三天的营业额远远超过了整个十二月(通常是珠宝商最繁忙的月份)的销售额。

原文

At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6p.m.to9p.m.onFriday,May 3rd. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 5th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. In recent years, our three-day volume has far exceeded sales in all of December, normally a jeweler’s best month.

周日下午1点左右,我将开始在Borsheims担任销售员。去年我的销售额总计150万美元。今年我不达到200万美元不会罢休。因为我需要在日落前很久离开,所以我会拼命做生意。快来利用我。找我要我的“疯狂沃伦”价。

原文

Around 1 p.m. on Sunday, I will begin clerking at Borsheims. Last year my sales totaled $1.5 million. This year I won’t quit until I hit $2 million. Because I need to leave well before sundown, I will be desperate to do business. Come take advantage of me. Ask for my “Crazy Warren” price.

整个周末Borsheims都会挤满大批人群。因此,为了方便您,股东价格将从4月29日(星期一)到5月11日(星期六)有效。在此期间,请出示您的会议凭证或显示您是伯克希尔持有者的券商对账单,以表明您的股东身份。

原文

We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 29th through Saturday, May 11th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder.

周日,在Borsheims外的商场里,蒙着眼睛的帕特里克·沃尔夫,两次美国国际象棋冠军,将以六人为一组迎战所有挑战者——挑战者们将睁大眼睛。附近,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克会让旁观者着迷。此外,我们还有世界顶尖桥牌专家鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格,于周日下午与我们的股东切磋桥牌。别和他们赌钱。

原文

On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers — who will have their eyes wide open — in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Don’t play them for money.

Gorat’s和Piccolo’s将再次于5月5日周日专门为伯克希尔股东开放。两家餐厅都将营业至晚上10点,Gorat’s下午1点开门,Piccolo’s下午4点开门。这些餐厅是我的最爱,我将在周日晚上都去用餐。请记住:要在Gorat’s预订,请于4月1日(但不要提前)致电402-551-3733;在Piccolo’s请致电402-342-9038。在Piccolo’s,点一份巨型根汁啤酒漂浮作为甜点。只有懦夫才点小份的。(我曾看到比尔·盖茨在享用了一顿全套晚餐后吃掉了两份巨型的;那时候我就知道他将会成为一名出色的董事。)

原文

Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 5th. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites, and I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and at Piccolo’s call 402-342-9038. At Piccolo’s, order a giant root beer float for dessert. Only sissies get the small one. (I once saw Bill Gates polish off two of the giant variety after a full-course dinner; that’s when I knew he would make a great director.)

我们将再次请同样的三位财经记者主持会议的问答环节,向我们提出股东通过电子邮件提交给他们的提问。这三位记者及其电子邮箱地址是:《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯,邮箱地址是cloomis@fortunemail.com;CNBC的贝基·奎克,邮箱地址是BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com;以及《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金,邮箱地址是arsorkin@nytimes.com

原文

We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be emailed at cloomis@fortunemail.com; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com, and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at arsorkin@nytimes.com.

从提交的问题中,每位记者将选出他们认为最有趣和最重要的六个问题。记者们告诉我,如果你能保持简洁,避免在最后一刻提交,问题与伯克希尔相关,并且在每封邮件中包含不超过两个问题,那么你的问题被选中的机会最大。(在你的邮件中,如果你希望在被选中时提及你的名字,请告知记者。)

原文

From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the six he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any email you send them. (In your email, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.)

去年,我们有一个由三位跟踪伯克希尔的分析师组成的小组。他们都是保险专家,但股东随后表示希望有更多样化。因此,今年我们将有一位保险分析师,野村证券的克里夫·加兰特。Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb的乔纳森·勃兰特将加入分析师小组,提出涉及我们非保险业务的问题。

原文

Last year we had a second panel of three analysts who follow Berkshire. All were insurance specialists, and shareholders subsequently indicated they wanted a little more variety. Therefore, this year we will have one insurance analyst, Cliff Gallant of Nomura Securities. Jonathan Brandt of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb will join the analyst panel to ask questions that deal with our non-insurance operations.

最后——为了增加趣味性——我们想增加一位经过认证的伯克希尔空头到小组中,最好是做空该股票的人。目前还没有找到空头,我们欢迎申请者。唯一的要求是您是投资专业人士并且对伯克希尔持负面看法。三位分析师将带来他们自己与伯克希尔相关的问题,并与记者和观众轮流提问。

原文

Finally — to spice things up — we would like to add to the panel a credentialed bear on Berkshire, preferably one who is short the stock. Not yet having a bear identified, we would like to hear from applicants. The only requirement is that you be an investment professional and negative on Berkshire. The three analysts will bring their own Berkshire-specific questions and alternate with the journalists and the audience in asking them.

查理和我认为,所有股东应该同时获得伯克希尔的新信息,并应有足够的时间进行分析,这就是为什么我们试图在周五市场收盘后发布财务信息,以及我们的年会在周六举行的原因。我们不会与大机构投资者或分析师进行一对一的谈话。我们希望记者和分析师能提出有助于股东进一步了解其投资的问题。

原文

Charlie and I believe that all shareholders should have access to new Berkshire information simultaneously and should also have adequate time to analyze it, which is why we try to issue financial information after the market close on a Friday and why our annual meeting is held on Saturdays. We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts. Our hope is that the journalists and analysts will ask questions that will further educate shareholders about their investment.

查理和我都不会提前知道将被问及的问题。我们知道记者和分析师会提出一些棘手的问题,而这正是我们喜欢的。总的来说,我们预计至少有54个问题,每位分析师和记者各6个,外加来自观众的18个问题。如果有额外的时间,我们会从观众中再抽取问题。提问观众将通过抽签决定,抽签将于上午8点15分在场地和主溢流室内的11个麦克风处进行。

原文

Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists and analysts will come up with some tough ones, and that’s the way we like it. All told, we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and 18 from the audience. If there is some extra time, we will take more from the audience. Audience questioners will be determined by drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. at each of the 11 microphones located in the arena and main overflow room.

************

我有充分的理由经常赞扬我们运营经理的成就。他们确实是全明星,管理自己的企业,仿佛那是他们家族拥有的唯一资产。我相信他们的思维方式与大型上市公司中能找到的最以股东为导向的思维方式一样。他们中的大多数人并不需要为钱而工作;打出商业“本垒打”的喜悦对他们而言与薪水同样重要。

原文

************

For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly All-Stars, who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I believe their mindset to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most have no financial need to work; the joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck.

同样重要的是,在我公司办公室与我一起工作的23位男女同事(都在同一层楼,我们打算保持这样!)。

原文

Equally important, however, are the 23 men and women who work with me at our corporate office (all on one floor, which is the way we intend to keep it!).

这个团队高效地处理大量美国证券交易委员会和其他监管要求,提交一份21,500页的联邦所得税申报表以及州和国外申报表,回应无数股东和媒体的询问,发布年度报告,筹备全国最大的年度会议,协调董事会活动——而且这个清单还在继续。

原文

This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements, files a 21,500-page Federal income tax return as well as state and foreign returns, responds to countless shareholder and media inquiries, gets out the annual report, prepares for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinates the Board’s activities — and the list goes on and on.

他们愉快地处理所有这些业务任务,效率高得令人难以置信,使我的生活轻松愉快。他们的努力超越了严格与伯克希尔相关的活动:去年,他们处理了48所大学(从200名申请者中选出)的来访,这些大学派学生到奥马哈与我进行问答日。他们还处理我收到的各种请求,安排我的旅行,甚至给我买汉堡包当午餐。没有哪个CEO比我更好了;我真的觉得每天都是踏舞去上班。

原文

They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: Last year they dealt with 48 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who sent students to Omaha for a Q&A day with me. They also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers for lunch. No CEO has it better; I truly do feel like tap dancing to work every day.

这个总部办公室团队,连同我们的运营经理,得到了我由衷的感谢,也值得你们的感谢。5月4日来奥马哈——资本主义的摇篮——并加入我们吧。

原文

This home office crew, along with our operating managers, has my deepest thanks and deserves yours as well. Come to Omaha — the cradle of capitalism — on May 4th and chime in.

2013年3月1日

沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席

原文

March 1, 2013

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board

Previous
伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2013 年股东大会记录
Next
伯克希尔·哈撒韦 2012 年股东大会记录