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2016年致股东信 第一部分

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

2016年伯克希尔的净资产收益为275亿美元,使我们的A类股和B类股每股账面价值增长了10.7%。在过去52年(即自现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值已从19美元增长至172,108美元,年复合增长率为19%。*

*本报告中所使用的所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔的A类股。B类股的数据为A类股所示数据的1/1500。

原文

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Berkshire’s gain in net worth during 2016 was $27.5 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 10.7%. Over the last 52 years (that is, since present management took over), per-share book value has grown from $19 to $172,108, a rate of 19% compounded annually.*

* All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.

在那些年份的前半段,伯克希尔的净资产大致等于真正重要的数字:企业的内在价值。这两个数字之所以相似,是因为当时我们的大部分资源都配置在可流通证券上,这些证券会定期按其报价(减去出售时需缴纳的税款)重新估值。用华尔街的行话来说,我们的资产负债表在很大程度上是”按市值计价”的。

然而,到了20世纪90年代初,我们的重心转向了直接拥有企业,这一转变大幅削弱了资产负债表数字的相关性。这种脱节之所以发生,是因为适用于我们控股公司的会计准则(通常称为”GAAP”)与用于估值可流通证券的规则存在重要差异。具体来说,对于我们拥有的企业的会计处理要求,当”失败者”的失败变得明显时,其账面价值必须减记。相反,“成功者”则从不向上重估。

原文

During the first half of those years, Berkshire’s net worth was roughly equal to the number that really counts: the intrinsic value of the business. The similarity of the two figures existed then because most of our resources were deployed in marketable securities that were regularly revalued to their quoted prices (less the tax that would be incurred if they were to be sold). In Wall Street parlance, our balance sheet was then in very large part “marked to market.”

By the early 1990s, however, our focus was changing to the outright ownership of businesses, a shift that materially diminished the relevance of balance sheet figures. That disconnect occurred because the accounting rules (commonly referred to as “GAAP”) that apply to companies we control differ in important ways from those used to value marketable securities. Specifically, the accounting for businesses we own requires that the carrying value of “losers” be written down when their failures become apparent. “Winners,” conversely, are never revalued upwards.

我们两种结果都经历过:就像婚姻一样,企业收购经常在”我愿意”之后带来意外。我曾做过一些愚蠢的收购,为所收购公司的经济商誉支付了过高的价格。这后来导致了商誉减记,并相应减少了伯克希尔的账面价值。在我们收购的企业中,我们也拥有一些赢家——其中几个赢家非常巨大——但我们从未将这些企业向上调高一美分。

原文

We’ve experienced both outcomes: As is the case in marriage, business acquisitions often deliver surprises after the “I do’s.” I’ve made some dumb purchases, paying far too much for the economic goodwill of companies we acquired. That later led to goodwill write-offs and to consequent reductions in Berkshire’s book value. We’ve also had some winners among the businesses we’ve purchased — a few of the winners very big — but have not written those up by a penny.

我们对此处适用的非对称会计处理没有异议。但是,随着时间的推移,这必然扩大伯克希尔内在价值与其账面价值之间的差距。如今,我们赢家们所积累的、庞大且不断增长的未入账收益,使得伯克希尔股票的内在价值远超其账面价值。在我们的财产/意外险业务中,这一差额确实巨大,在许多其他业务中也很显著。

原文

We have no quarrel with the asymmetrical accounting that applies here. But, over time, it necessarily widens the gap between Berkshire’s intrinsic value and its book value. Today, the large — and growing — unrecorded gains at our winners produce an intrinsic value for Berkshire’s shares that far exceeds their book value. The overage is truly huge in our property/casualty insurance business and significant also in many other operations.

随着时间的推移,股票价格会趋向于内在价值。这正是伯克希尔所发生的情况,这一事实解释了为什么公司52年来的市场价格涨幅——如对面页面所示——显著超过了其账面价值的增长。

原文

Over time, stock prices gravitate toward intrinsic value. That’s what has happened at Berkshire, a fact explaining why the company’s 52-year market-price gain — shown on the facing page — materially exceeds its book-value gain.

我们的目标

查理·芒格,伯克希尔的副董事长兼我的合伙人,和我预期伯克希尔的正常化每股盈利能力每年都会增长。当然,实际收益有时会因美国经济的周期性疲软而下降。此外,即使大多数美国企业经营良好,保险业巨灾或其他行业特定事件也可能偶尔减少伯克希尔的收益。

原文

What We Hope to Accomplish

Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner, and I expect Berkshire’s normalized earning power per share to increase every year. Actual earnings, of course, will sometimes decline because of periodic weakness in the U.S. economy. In addition, insurance mega-catastrophes or other industry-specific events may occasionally reduce earnings at Berkshire, even when most American businesses are doing well.

然而,随着时间的推移,实现显著增长是我们的职责,无论过程是否平稳。毕竟,作为你们的资本的管家,伯克希尔的董事们选择保留全部收益。事实上,在2015年和2016年,伯克希尔在留存收益的美元金额上均位居美国企业之首,每年再投资的金额比亚军多出数十亿美元。这些再投资的资金必须物有所值。

原文

It’s our job, though, to over time deliver significant growth, bumpy or not. After all, as stewards of your capital, Berkshire directors have opted to retain all earnings. Indeed, in both 2015 and 2016 Berkshire ranked first among American businesses in the dollar volume of earnings retained, in each year reinvesting many billions of dollars more than did the runner-up. Those reinvested dollars must earn their keep.

有些年份,我们实现的基础盈利能力的增长将是微小的;偶尔,收银机声会响彻云霄。查理和我没有神奇的方案来增加收益,除了怀揣大梦想,并在精神和财务上做好准备,以便在机会出现时迅速行动。大约每十年左右,经济天空会乌云密布,短暂地下起黄金雨。当这种倾盆大雨来临时,我们必须拿着大盆而非茶匙冲出门外。而且我们一定会这样做。

原文

Some years, the gains in underlying earning power we achieve will be minor; very occasionally, the cash register will ring loud. Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do.

我先前描述过我们如何从一家主要通过投资活动获得收益的公司,逐渐转变为通过拥有企业来实现价值增长的公司。启动这一转变时,我们迈出了蹒跚学步的步伐——进行了一些小型收购,其对伯克希尔利润的影响远小于我们从可流通证券中获得的收益。尽管采取了谨慎的做法,我还是犯了一个特别严重的错误,1993年以4.34亿美元收购了德克斯特鞋业。德克斯特的价值迅速归零。更糟糕的是:我用股票进行了收购,给了卖方25,203股伯克希尔股票,这些股票在2016年底价值超过60亿美元。

原文

I earlier described our gradual shift from a company obtaining most of its gains from investment activities to one that grows in value by owning businesses. Launching that transition, we took baby steps — making small acquisitions whose impact on Berkshire’s profits was dwarfed by our gains from marketable securities. Despite that cautious approach, I made one particularly egregious error, acquiring Dexter Shoe for $434 million in 1993. Dexter’s value promptly went to zero. The story gets worse: I used stock for the purchase, giving the sellers 25,203 shares of Berkshire that at yearend 2016 were worth more than $6 billion.

那次灾难之后,发生了三件关键的事情——两件积极,一件消极——这些事件将我们坚定地推向了当前的道路。1996年初,我们收购了GEICO余下的一半股份,这是一项现金交易,将我们的持股从一项投资组合转变为一家全资运营的企业。GEICO拥有几乎无限的潜力,迅速成为我们构建如今我认为是世界首屈一指的财产/意外险业务的核心。

原文

That wreck was followed by three key happenings — two positive, one negative — that set us firmly on our present course. At the beginning of 1996, we acquired the half of GEICO we didn’t already own, a cash transaction that changed our holding from a portfolio investment into a wholly-owned operating business. GEICO, with its almost unlimited potential, quickly became the centerpiece around which we built what I believe is now the world’s premier property/casualty business.

不幸的是,在收购GEICO之后,我愚蠢地使用伯克希尔的股票——大量股票——在1998年末收购了通用再保险。在经历了一些早期问题之后,通用再保险已成为我们珍视的优秀保险业务。尽管如此,为收购通用再保险发行272,200股伯克希尔股票是我犯下的一个严重错误,这一行为使我们的流通股数量惊人地增加了21.8%。我的错误导致伯克希尔股东付出的远多于他们得到的(这种做法——尽管有圣经的支持——在收购企业时远非幸事)。

原文

Unfortunately, I followed the GEICO purchase by foolishly using Berkshire stock — a boatload of stock — to buy General Reinsurance in late 1998. After some early problems, General Re has become a fine insurance operation that we prize. It was, nevertheless, a terrible mistake on my part to issue 272,200 shares of Berkshire in buying General Re, an act that increased our outstanding shares by a whopping 21.8%. My error caused Berkshire shareholders to give far more than they received (a practice that — despite the Biblical endorsement — is far from blessed when you are buying businesses).

2000年初,我通过收购中美能源(现为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源)76%的股份(后增至90%)来弥补这一愚蠢行为。这是一家管理出色的公用事业公司,为我们提供了许多盈利且对社会有益的投资机会。中美能源的现金收购——我学到了教训——坚定地引导我们走上当前的发展道路:(1) 持续建设我们的保险业务;(2) 积极收购大型且多元化的非保险业务;(3) 主要使用内部产生的现金进行交易。(如今,我宁愿去做肠镜检查也不愿发行伯克希尔的股票。)

原文

Early in 2000, I atoned for that folly by buying 76% (since grown to 90%) of MidAmerican Energy, a brilliantly-managed utility business that has delivered us many large opportunities to make profitable and socially-useful investments. The MidAmerican cash purchase — I was learning — firmly launched us on our present course of (1) continuing to build our insurance operation; (2) energetically acquiring large and diversified non-insurance businesses and (3) largely making our deals from internally-generated cash. (Today, I would rather prep for a colonoscopy than issue Berkshire shares.)

我们的债券和股票投资组合,尽管地位有所下降,但在1998年之后的时期里持续增长,并为我们带来了丰厚的资本收益、利息和股息。这些投资组合收益为我们资助企业收购提供了重大帮助。尽管非常规,伯克希尔双管齐下的资本配置方式为我们带来了真正的优势。

原文

Our portfolio of bonds and stocks, de-emphasized though it is, has continued in the post-1998 period to grow and to deliver us hefty capital gains, interest, and dividends. Those portfolio earnings have provided us major help in financing the purchase of businesses. Though unconventional, Berkshire’s two-pronged approach to capital allocation gives us a real edge.

以下是我们自1999年(我们的业务开始认真转向)以来的财务记录。在涵盖的18年期间,伯克希尔的流通股仅增长了8.3%,其中大部分增长发生在收购BNSF时。我很高兴地说,那是一次明智的股票发行。

税后收益(十亿美元)
年份运营收益 (1)资本利得 (2)年份运营收益 (1)资本利得 (2)
19990.670.8920089.64(4.65)
20000.942.3920097.570.49
2001(0.13)0.92201011.091.87
20023.720.57201110.78(0.52)
20035.422.73201212.602.23
20045.052.26201315.144.34
20055.003.53201416.553.32
20069.311.71201517.366.73
20079.633.58201617.576.50
原文

Here’s our financial record since 1999, when the redirection of our business began in earnest. During the 18-year period covered, Berkshire’s outstanding shares grew by only 8.3%, with most of the increase occurring when we purchased BNSF. That, I’m happy to say, was one issuance of stock that made good sense.

After-Tax Earnings (in billions of dollars)
YearOperations (1)Capital Gains (2)YearOperations (1)Capital Gains (2)
19990.670.8920089.64(4.65)
20000.942.3920097.570.49
2001(0.13)0.92201011.091.87
20023.720.57201110.78(0.52)
20035.422.73201212.602.23
20045.052.26201315.144.34
20055.003.53201416.553.32
20069.311.71201517.366.73
20079.633.58201617.576.50

我们的预期是,投资收益将持续可观——尽管在时间上完全随机——并且这些收益将为业务收购提供大量资金。同时,伯克希尔出色的运营CEO团队将专注于提高他们所管理企业的收益,有时通过补强收购来帮助它们增长。通过避免发行伯克希尔股票,任何收益增长都将转化为同等的每股收益增长。

原文

Our expectation is that investment gains will continue to be substantial — though totally random as to timing — and that these will supply significant funds for business purchases. Concurrently, Berkshire’s superb corps of operating CEOs will focus on increasing earnings at the individual businesses they manage, sometimes helping them to grow by making bolt-on acquisitions. By our avoiding the issuance of Berkshire stock, any improvement in earnings will translate into equivalent per-share gains.


我们大幅提高伯克希尔正常化收益的努力,将像在我们的管理生涯中一样,受益于美国经济的活力。用一个词来概括我们国家的成就:奇迹。从240年前的白手起家——这段时间跨度不到我在世时间的三倍——美国人将人类智慧、市场体系、一波波才华横溢且雄心勃勃的移民潮以及法治结合起来,创造了远超我们先祖梦想的富足。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided — as they have been throughout our managerial tenure — by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago — a span of time less than triple my days on earth — Americans have combined human ingenuity, a market system, a tide of talented and ambitious immigrants, and the rule of law to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers.

你无需成为经济学家也能理解我们的系统运作得有多好。只需环顾四周。看看7500万套自住房、肥沃的农田、2.6亿辆汽车、高产出的工厂、伟大的医疗中心、人才济济的大学,凡此种种——它们都代表了美国人从1776年贫瘠的土地、原始的建筑和微薄的产出中获得的净收益。从零开始,美国已经积累了总计90万亿美元的财富。

原文

You need not be an economist to understand how well our system has worked. Just look around you. See the 75 million owner-occupied homes, the bountiful farmland, the 260 million vehicles, the hyper-productive factories, the great medical centers, the talent-filled universities, you name it — they all represent a net gain for Americans from the barren lands, primitive structures and meager output of 1776. Starting from scratch, America has amassed wealth totaling $90 trillion.

诚然,美国的房屋、汽车和其他资产的所有者常常大量借贷来资助他们的购买。然而,如果所有者违约,其资产并不会消失或失去用途。相反,所有权通常会转移给一个美国贷款机构,然后该机构将其出售给一个美国买家。我们国家的财富保持不变。正如格特鲁德·斯坦所说:“金钱总是在那里,只是口袋变了。”

原文

It’s true, of course, that American owners of homes, autos and other assets have often borrowed heavily to finance their purchases. If an owner defaults, however, his or her asset does not disappear or lose its usefulness. Rather, ownership customarily passes to an American lending institution that then disposes of it to an American buyer. Our nation’s wealth remains intact. As Gertrude Stein put it, “Money is always there, but the pockets change.”

最重要的是,是我们的市场体系——一个能够巧妙地引导资本、智慧和劳动力的经济交通警察——创造了美国的富足。这个系统也是分配回报的主要因素。通过联邦、州和地方税收进行的政府再分配,也决定了很大一部分财富的分配。

原文

Above all, it’s our market system — an economic traffic cop ably directing capital, brains and labor — that has created America’s abundance. This system has also been the primary factor in allocating rewards. Governmental redirection, through federal, state and local taxation, has in addition determined the distribution of a significant portion of the bounty.

例如,美国决定,处于生产年龄的公民应该帮助老人和年轻人。这种形式的援助——有时被称为”福利权利”——通常被认为适用于老年人。但不要忘记,美国每年有400万婴儿出生,他们有权享受公立教育。这种社会承诺主要由地方层面资助,每个婴儿大约花费15万美元。每年的总成本超过6000亿美元,约占GDP的3.5%。

原文

America has, for example, decided that those citizens in their productive years should help both the old and the young. Such forms of aid — sometimes enshrined as “entitlements” — are generally thought of as applying to the aged. But don’t forget that four million American babies are born each year with an entitlement to a public education. That societal commitment, largely financed at the local level, costs about $150,000 per baby. The annual cost totals more than $600 billion, which is about 3½% of GDP.

无论我们的财富如何分配,你周围所见的令人瞠目的数额几乎全部属于美国人。当然,外国人拥有或对我们财富的一小部分拥有索取权。然而,这些持有额对我们的国家资产负债表并不重要:我们的公民在国外拥有大致相当价值的资产。

原文

However our wealth may be divided, the mind-boggling amounts you see around you belong almost exclusively to Americans. Foreigners, of course, own or have claims on a modest portion of our wealth. Those holdings, however, are of little importance to our national balance sheet: Our citizens own assets abroad that are roughly comparable in value.

早期的美国人,我们应该强调的是,并不比在他们之前世世代代辛勤劳作的人们更聪明或更勤奋。但是那些富有冒险精神的先驱们构建了一个释放人类潜能的系统,而他们的后继者在此基础上继续建设。

原文

Early Americans, we should emphasize, were neither smarter nor more hard working than those people who toiled century after century before them. But those venturesome pioneers crafted a system that unleashed human potential, and their successors built upon it.

这个经济创造将在未来很长时期内为我们的后代带来日益增长的财富。是的,财富的积累会时不时地被短暂中断。但它不会被停止。我将重复我过去说过并且预计未来也会说的话:今天在美国出生的婴儿是历史上最幸运的一代。

原文

This economic creation will deliver increasing wealth to our progeny far into the future. Yes, the build-up of wealth will be interrupted for short periods from time to time. It will not*,* however, be stopped. I’ll repeat what I’ve both said in the past and expect to say in future years: Babies born in America today are the luckiest crop in history.


美国的经济成就为股东带来了惊人的利润。在20世纪,道琼斯工业指数从66点上涨至11,497点,实现了17,320%的资本收益,而稳步增长的股息又极大地推动了这一增长。这一趋势仍在继续:截至2016年底,该指数进一步上涨72%,达到19,763点。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

America’s economic achievements have led to staggering profits for stockholders. During the 20th century the Dow-Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497, a 17,320% capital gain that was materially boosted by steadily increasing dividends. The trend continues: By yearend 2016, the index had advanced a further 72%, to 19,763.

美国企业——以及由此而来的股票篮子——几乎肯定会在未来几年价值高得多。创新、生产率提高、企业家精神和充足的资本将确保这一点。永远存在的唱衰者可能会通过推销他们的悲观预测而获利。但如果他们依据自己兜售的废话采取行动,那么上天保佑他们吧。

原文

American business — and consequently a basket of stocks — is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that. Ever-present naysayers may prosper by marketing their gloomy forecasts. But heaven help them if they act on the nonsense they peddle.

当然,许多公司会落后,一些会倒闭。这种淘汰是市场活力的产物。而且,未来几年偶尔会出现重大的市场下跌——甚至是恐慌——这将影响几乎所有股票。没有人能告诉你这些创伤何时会发生——无论是我、查理、经济学家还是媒体。纽约联储的梅格·麦康奈尔恰当地描述了恐慌的现实:“我们花了很多时间寻找系统性风险;但事实上,它往往是来找我们的。”

原文

Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some will fail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, the years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines — even panics — that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur — not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell of the New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of time looking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us.”

在这些可怕的时期,你永远不应忘记两件事:第一,普遍的恐惧是投资者的朋友,因为它提供了廉价购买的机会。第二,个人的恐惧是你的敌人。它也是没有根据的。那些避免高昂和不必要成本,仅仅长期持有一篮子大型、财务稳健的美国企业的投资者,几乎肯定会有好结果。

原文

During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.

至于伯克希尔,我们的规模排除了辉煌的结果:预期回报会随着资产的增加而下降。尽管如此,伯克希尔拥有的优秀企业组合,加上公司坚不可摧的财务实力和以所有者为导向的文化,应该会产生体面的结果。我们对低于此结果是不会满意的。

原文

As for Berkshire, our size precludes a brilliant result: Prospective returns fall as assets increase. Nonetheless, Berkshire’s collection of good businesses, along with the company’s impregnable financial strength and owner-oriented culture, should deliver decent results. We won’t be satisfied with less.

股票回购

在投资界,关于股票回购的讨论常常变得激烈。但我建议这场辩论的参与者深呼吸一下:评估回购的可取性并不那么复杂。

原文

Share Repurchases

In the investment world, discussions about share repurchases often become heated. But I’d suggest that participants in this debate take a deep breath: Assessing the desirability of repurchases isn’t that complicated.

从退出股东的角度来看,回购总是有利的。尽管这些购买的日常影响通常微乎其微,但对卖家来说,市场上多一个买家总是更好的。

原文

From the standpoint of exiting shareholders, repurchases are always a plus. Though the day-to-day impact of these purchases is usually minuscule, it’s always better for a seller to have an additional buyer in the market.

然而,对于继续持有的股东来说,回购只有在股票以低于内在价值的价格买入时才有意义。当遵循这一规则时,剩余股份的内在价值会立即增加。考虑一个简单的类比:如果一家价值3,000美元的企业有三个平等的合伙人,并且合伙公司以900美元买断其中一人的股份,则每位剩余的合伙人将立即获得50美元的收益。然而,如果退出合伙人获得1,100美元,则继续持有的合伙人每人将损失50美元。同样的数学原理适用于公司及其股东。因此,回购行为对继续持有股东是增值还是减值,完全取决于购买价格。

原文

For continuing shareholders, however, repurchases only make sense if the shares are bought at a price below intrinsic value. When that rule is followed, the remaining shares experience an immediate gain in intrinsic value. Consider a simple analogy: If there are three equal partners in a business worth $3,000 and one is bought out by the partnership for $900, each of the remaining partners realizes an immediate gain of $50. If the exiting partner is paid $1,100, however, the continuing partners each suffer a loss of $50. The same math applies with corporations and their shareholders. Ergo, the question of whether a repurchase action is value-enhancing or value-destroying for continuing shareholders is entirely purchase-price dependent.

因此,令人费解的是,企业回购公告几乎从未提及一个高于此价位将避免回购的价格。如果管理层是在收购外部企业,情况肯定不会如此。在那里,价格总会是决定买入或放弃的一个因素。

原文

It is puzzling, therefore, that corporate repurchase announcements almost never refer to a price above which repurchases will be eschewed. That certainly wouldn’t be the case if a management was buying an outside business. There, price would always factor into a buy-or-pass decision.

然而,当CEO或董事会购买自己公司的一小部分股份时,他们似乎常常对价格视而不见。如果他们管理着一家只有少数所有者的私营公司,并且在评估买断其中一人的明智性时,他们会同样行事吗?当然不会。

原文

When CEOs or boards are buying a small part of their own company, though, they all too often seem oblivious to price. Would they behave similarly if they were managing a private company with just a few owners and were evaluating the wisdom of buying out one of them? Of course not.

重要的是要记住,即使公司股票被低估,也有两种情况下不应进行回购。一种是当企业既需要所有可用资金来保护或扩展其自身业务,又不愿意增加更多债务时。在这种情况下,内部资金需求应优先考虑。当然,这一例外假设企业在进行必要的支出后有一个体面的未来在等待。

原文

It is important to remember that there are two occasions in which repurchases should not take place, even if the company’s shares are underpriced. One is when a business both needs all its available money to protect or expand its own operations and is also uncomfortable adding further debt. Here, the internal need for funds should take priority. This exception assumes, of course, that the business has a decent future awaiting it after the needed expenditures are made.

第二种不太常见的例外情况是,当收购一家企业(或其他投资机会)提供的价值远高于潜在回购者被低估的股票时。很久以前,伯克希尔本身就经常不得不在这些替代方案中做出选择。以我们目前的规模,这个问题出现的可能性要小得多。

原文

The second exception, less common, materializes when a business acquisition (or some other investment opportunity) offers far greater value than do the undervalued shares of the potential repurchaser. Long ago, Berkshire itself often had to choose between these alternatives. At our present size, the issue is far less likely to arise.

我的建议:在讨论回购之前,CEO及其董事会应该起立,手拉手齐声宣告:“一个价格下的明智之举,在另一个价格下就是愚蠢行为。”

原文

My suggestion: Before even discussing repurchases, a CEO and his or her Board should stand, join hands and in unison declare, “What is smart at one price is stupid at another.”


回顾伯克希尔自己的回购政策:我被授权以不超过账面价值120%的价格大量购买伯克希尔股票,因为我们的董事会认为,在这一水平上的购买能立即为继续持有的股东带来实质利益。据我们估计,120%账面价值的价格相比伯克希尔的内在价值有显著折扣,这个价差是合适的,因为内在价值的计算无法精确。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

To recap Berkshire’s own repurchase policy: I am authorized to buy large amounts of Berkshire shares at 120% or less of book value because our Board has concluded that purchases at that level clearly bring an instant and material benefit to continuing shareholders. By our estimate, a 120%-of-book price is a significant discount to Berkshire’s intrinsic value, a spread that is appropriate because calculations of intrinsic value can’t be precise.

赋予我的授权并不意味着我们会在120%的比例上”支撑”我们的股价。如果达到这一水平,我们将尝试将以创造价值的价格进行有意义购买的目标,与不过度影响市场的相关目标结合起来。

原文

The authorization given me does not mean that we will “prop” our stock’s price at the 120% ratio. If that level is reached, we will instead attempt to blend a desire to make meaningful purchases at a value-creating price with a related goal of not over-influencing the market.

迄今为止,回购我们的股票被证明很难做到。这很可能是因为我们清晰地描述了我们的回购政策,从而表明了我们认为伯克希尔的内在价值显著高于120%账面价值的观点。如果是这样,那很好。查理和我更愿意看到伯克希尔的股票在一个相当窄的区间内围绕内在价值交易,既不希望它们以不合理的高价出售——让购买者失望的股东可不是什么乐事——也不希望价格过低。此外,以折扣价买断”合伙人”并不是一种特别令人满意的赚钱方式。尽管如此,市场环境可能创造这样一种情况,使回购对继续持有和退出的股东都有利。如果出现这种情况,我们将准备采取行动。

原文

To date, repurchasing our shares has proved hard to do. That may well be because we have been clear in describing our repurchase policy and thereby have signaled our view that Berkshire’s intrinsic value is significantly higher than 120% of book value. If so, that’s fine. Charlie and I prefer to see Berkshire shares sell in a fairly narrow range around intrinsic value, neither wishing them to sell at an unwarranted high price — it’s no fun having owners who are disappointed with their purchases — nor one too low. Furthermore, our buying out “partners” at a discount is not a particularly gratifying way of making money. Still, market circumstances could create a situation in which repurchases would benefit both continuing and exiting shareholders. If so, we will be ready to act.

关于这一部分的最后一点观察:随着回购话题变得火热,有些人几乎将其称为非美国式的行为——将其定性为将急需用于生产性努力的资金转移走的公司不当行为。情况并非如此:如今美国企业和私人投资者都充斥着寻求明智配置的资金。我不知道近年有任何诱人的项目因缺乏资金而夭折。(如果你有候选项目,请打电话给我们。)

原文

One final observation for this section: As the subject of repurchases has come to a boil, some people have come close to calling them un-American — characterizing them as corporate misdeeds that divert funds needed for productive endeavors. That simply isn’t the case: Both American corporations and private investors are today awash in funds looking to be sensibly deployed. I’m not aware of any enticing project that in recent years has died for lack of capital. (Call us if you have a candidate.)

保险

现在让我们来看看伯克希尔的各项业务,从我们最重要的板块——保险开始。财产/意外险是该行业的一个分支,自1967年我们以860万美元收购国民 indemnity 及其姊妹公司国民火灾与海事保险公司以来,它一直是推动我们增长的引擎。如今,以净资产衡量,国民 indemnity 是世界上最大的财产/意外险公司。

原文

Insurance

Let’s now look at Berkshire’s various businesses, starting with our most important sector, insurance. The property/casualty (“P/C”) branch of that industry has been the engine that has propelled our growth since 1967, the year we acquired National Indemnity and its sister company, National Fire & Marine, for $8.6 million. Today, National Indemnity is the largest property/casualty company in the world as measured by net worth.

我们被P/C业务吸引的一个原因是其财务特征:P/C保险公司先收取保费,后支付索赔。在极端情况下,例如因石棉暴露引起的索赔,支付可能延续数十年。这种先收款后付款的模式使P/C公司持有大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金”——这些资金最终将支付给他人。同时,保险公司可以为了自己的利益投资这些浮存金。虽然个别保单和索赔来去匆匆,但保险公司持有的浮存金金额相对于保费收入通常保持相当稳定。因此,随着我们的业务增长,我们的浮存金也随之增长。而它确实增长了很多,如下表所示:

年份浮存金(百万美元)
1970$ 39
1980237
19901,632
200027,871
201065,832
201691,577
原文

One reason we were attracted to the P/C business was its financial characteristics: P/C insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as claims arising from exposure to asbestos, payments can stretch over many decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums — money we call “float” — that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their own benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how it has grown, as the following table shows:

YearFloat (in millions)
1970$ 39
1980237
19901,632
200027,871
201065,832
201691,577

我们最近承保了一份巨额保单,使浮存金增加到了超过1000亿美元。除了这种一次性的增长,GEICO和我们的一些专业业务部门的浮存金几乎肯定会以良好的速度增长。然而,国民 indemnity 的再保险部门参与了一些大型的终止合同,其浮存金肯定会逐渐下降。

原文

We recently wrote a huge policy that increased float to more than $100 billion. Beyond that one-time boost, float at GEICO and several of our specialized operations is almost certain to grow at a good clip. National Indemnity’s re-insurance division, however, is party to a number of large run-off contracts whose float is certain to drift downward.

我们可能在未来经历浮存金的下降。如果是这样,下降将是非常渐进的——最多每年不超过3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了我们永远不会面临对我们现金资源有重要意义的即时或短期资金需求。这种结构是经过设计的,也是我们保险公司无与伦比的财务实力的关键组成部分。它将永远不会被削弱。

原文

We may in time experience a decline in float. If so, the decline will be very gradual — at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate or near-term demands for sums that are of significance to our cash resources. This structure is by design and is a key component in the unequaled financial strength of our insurance companies. It will never be compromised.

如果我们的保费收入超过我们的费用和最终损失总额,我们的保险业务就会产生承保利润,从而增加浮存金带来的投资收益。当获得这样的利润时,我们就能享受免费资金的使用权——而且更好的是,我们因为持有它而获得报酬

原文

If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, our insurance operation registers an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income the float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money — and, better yet, get paid for holding it.

不幸的是,所有保险公司都希望实现这一令人满意的结果,这导致了激烈的竞争,以至于有时导致整个P/C行业出现重大承保亏损。实际上,这种亏损就是行业为持有其浮存金所支付的代价。竞争动态几乎保证了保险行业,尽管所有公司都享有浮存金收入,但相对于其他美国企业,其有形净资产收益率将持续保持不佳的记录。

原文

Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous indeed that it sometimes causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss . This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Competitive dynamics almost guarantee that the insurance industry, despite the float income all its companies enjoy, will continue its dismal record of earning subnormal returns on tangible net worth as compared to other American businesses.

当前世界范围内利率大幅下降的趋势使得这一结果更加确定。几乎所有P/C公司的投资组合——尽管不是伯克希尔的——都高度集中于债券。随着这些高收益的遗留投资到期,并被收益率微薄的债券所取代,浮存金带来的收益将持续下降。基于这个原因以及其他原因,未来十年的行业业绩很可能低于过去十年,特别是对于那些专门从事再保险的公司。

原文

This outcome is made more certain by the dramatically lower interest rates that now exist throughout the world. The investment portfolios of almost all P/C companies — though not those of Berkshire — are heavily concentrated in bonds. As these high-yielding legacy investments mature and are replaced by bonds yielding a pittance, earnings from float will steadily fall. For that reason, and others as well, it’s a good bet that industry results over the next ten years will fall short of those recorded in the past decade, particularly in the case of companies that specialize in reinsurance.

尽管如此,我非常看好我们自己的前景。伯克希尔无与伦比的财务实力使我们在投资方面拥有比一般P/C公司大得多的灵活性。我们可用的众多选择始终是我们的优势;偶尔,它们会为我们提供重大机遇。当他人受到限制时,我们的选择范围会扩大。

原文

Nevertheless, I very much like our own prospects. Berkshire’s unrivaled financial strength allows us far more flexibility in investing than that generally available to P/C companies. The many alternatives available to us are always an advantage; occasionally, they offer us major opportunities. When others are constrained, our choices expand.

此外,我们的P/C公司有着出色的承保记录。伯克希尔现已连续14年实现承保盈利,在此期间我们的税前收益总计达280亿美元。这一记录绝非偶然:严格的风险评估是我们所有保险经理的日常关注重点,他们知道,虽然浮存金很宝贵,但其好处可能被糟糕的承保结果所淹没。所有保险公司都口头上认可这一信息。在伯克希尔,它像旧约风格的宗教一样被信奉。

原文

Moreover, our P/C companies have an excellent underwriting record. Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 14 consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $28 billion. That record is no accident: Disciplined risk evaluation is the daily focus of all of our insurance managers, who know that while float is valuable, its benefits can be drowned by poor underwriting results. All insurers give that message lip service. At Berkshire it is a religion, Old Testament style.

那么,我们的浮存金如何影响内在价值?当伯克希尔的账面价值被计算时,我们浮存金的全部金额被作为负债扣除,就好像我们明天必须支付它并且无法补充一样。但将浮存金视为典型的负债是一个重大错误。它应该被看作一个循环基金。每天,我们支付旧的索赔和相关费用——2016年向超过600万名索赔者支付了高达270亿美元的巨额款项——这减少了浮存金。同样地,我们每天都有新业务,这些业务很快就会产生自己的索赔,从而增加浮存金。

原文

So how does our float affect intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and could not replenish it. But to think of float as a typical liability is a major mistake. It should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. Daily, we pay old claims and related expenses — a huge $27 billion to more than six million claimants in 2016 — and that reduces float. Just as surely, we each day write new business that will soon generate its own claims, adding to float.

如果我们的循环浮存金既无成本又持续长久——我相信会如此——那么这项负债的真实价值将远远低于会计负债。欠1美元,但它实际上永远不会离开公司——因为新业务几乎肯定会提供一个替代品——这与欠1美元,明天就会流出且不会被取代是天壤之别。然而,在GAAP下,这两种类型的负债被同等对待。

原文

If our revolving float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe it will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability. Owing $1 that in effect will never leave the premises — because new business is almost certain to deliver a substitute — is worlds different from owing $1 that will go out the door tomorrow and not be replaced. The two types of liabilities, however, are treated as equals under GAAP.

这部分被高估的负债的一个部分抵消是我们为购买保险公司而产生的155亿美元”商誉”资产,该资产包含在我们的账面价值中。在很大程度上,这部分商誉代表了我们为保险业务的浮存金生成能力支付的价格。然而,商誉的成本与其真实价值毫无关系。例如,如果一家保险公司持续遭受大规模和长期的承保损失,那么账面记载的任何商誉资产都应被视为毫无价值,无论其原始成本如何。

原文

A partial offset to this overstated liability is a $15.5 billion “goodwill” asset that we incurred in buying our insurance companies and that is included in our book-value figure. In very large part, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. For example, if an insurance company sustains large and prolonged underwriting losses, any goodwill asset carried on the books should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost.

幸运的是,这描述的不是伯克希尔。查理和我相信,我们保险商誉的真实经济价值——即如果我们收购一家拥有类似质量浮存金的保险公司时,我们愿意为之支付的价格——远远超过其历史账面价值。事实上,我们保险业务中几乎全部155亿美元商誉在2000年浮存金为280亿美元时已经记在账上。然而,此后我们增加了640亿美元的浮存金,这一增长完全没有反映在我们的账面价值中。这项未入账资产是——一个巨大的原因——为什么我们认为伯克希尔的内在业务价值远高于其账面价值。

原文

Fortunately, that does not describe Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill — what we would happily pay for float of similar quality were we to purchase an insurance operation possessing it — to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. Indeed, almost the entire $15.5 billion we carry for goodwill in our insurance business was already on our books in 2000 when float was $28 billion. Yet we have subsequently increased our float by $64 billion, a gain that in no way is reflected in our book value. This unrecorded asset is one reason — a huge reason — why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value far exceeds its book value.


伯克希尔具有吸引力的保险经济学之所以存在,只是因为我们有一些出色的经理人在管理着纪律严明的业务,这些业务在大多数情况下拥有难以复制的商业模式。让我向您介绍主要单元。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Berkshire’s attractive insurance economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running disciplined operations that in most cases possess hard-to-replicate business models. Let me tell you about the major units.

按浮存金规模排名第一的是伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团,由阿吉特·贾因管理。阿吉特承保那些没有其他人有愿望或资本承担的保险风险。他的业务以无与伦比的方式结合了能力、速度、决断力,以及最重要的才智。然而,他从未让伯克希尔暴露在与我们资源不相称的风险之下。

原文

First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, managed by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources.

事实上,伯克希尔在规避风险方面比大多数大型保险公司保守。例如,如果保险行业因某次特大灾难遭受2500亿美元的损失——大约是历史上任何一次损失的三倍——伯克希尔整体上很可能在当年录得大量利润。我们的众多非保险收入来源将确保这一点。此外,我们将仍然现金充裕,并渴望在一个可能陷入混乱的保险市场中承保业务。与此同时,其他主要保险公司和再保险公司即使不面临破产,也将处于严重亏损之中。

原文

Indeed, Berkshire is far more conservative in avoiding risk than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe — a loss about triple anything it has ever experienced — Berkshire as a whole would likely record a large profit for the year. Our many streams of non-insurance earnings would see to that. Additionally, we would remain awash in cash and be eager to write business in an insurance market that might well be in disarray. Meanwhile, other major insurers and reinsurers would be swimming in red ink, if not facing insolvency.

当阿吉特于1986年的一个周六走进伯克希尔的办公室时,他没有任何一天的保险业务经验。尽管如此,我们当时的保险经理迈克·戈德堡将我们那家小而挣扎的再保险业务的钥匙交给了他。凭借这一举动,迈克成就了圣徒般的事业:自那时起,阿吉特为伯克希尔股东创造了数百亿美元的价值。如果世界上还能有另一个阿吉特,并且你可以用我来交换他,请不要犹豫。进行这笔交易吧!

原文

When Ajit entered Berkshire’s office on a Saturday in 1986, he did not have a day’s experience in the insurance business. Nevertheless, Mike Goldberg, then our manager of insurance, handed him the keys to our small and struggling reinsurance business. With that move, Mike achieved sainthood: Since then, Ajit has created tens of billions of value for Berkshire shareholders. If there were ever to be another Ajit and you could swap me for him, don’t hesitate . Make the trade!


我们还有另一家再保险巨头——通用再保险,最近由泰德·蒙特罗斯管理。在通用再保险工作39年后,泰德于2016年退休。泰德在各方面都是一位优秀的绅士,我们对他感激不尽。与阿吉特共事16年的卡拉·雷格尔现在担任通用再保险的CEO。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

We have another reinsurance powerhouse in General Re, managed until recently by Tad Montross. After 39 years at General Re, Tad retired in 2016. Tad was a class act in every way and we owe him a ton of thanks. Kara Raiguel, who has worked with Ajit for 16 years, is now CEO of General Re.

从根本上说,一个健全的保险业务需要遵守四条纪律。它必须 (1) 理解所有可能导致保单发生损失的风险敞口;(2) 保守地评估任何风险敞口实际导致损失的可能性以及如果发生损失的潜在成本;(3) 设定一个保费,使其在覆盖预期损失成本和运营费用后,平均而言能够产生利润;(4) 如果无法获得适当的保费,愿意放弃业务。

原文

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

许多保险公司通过了前三项测试,但在第四项上失败了。他们就是无法拒绝竞争对手热切承保的业务。那句老话”别人都在做,所以我们也必须做”在任何业务中都意味着麻烦,但在保险业务中尤其如此。泰德从未听信这种对粗放承保的无稽之谈的辩解,卡拉也不会。

原文

Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance. Tad never listened to that nonsensical excuse for sloppy underwriting, and neither will Kara.


最后是GEICO,这家公司在66年前点燃了我的心火(并且这团火焰仍在燃烧)。GEICO由托尼·奈斯利管理,他18岁加入公司,并于2016年完成了55年的服务。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Finally, there is GEICO, the company that set my heart afire 66 years ago (and for which the flame still burns). GEICO is managed by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 55 years of service in 2016.

托尼于1993年成为GEICO的CEO,自那时起,公司一直突飞猛进。没有比托尼更好的经理人了,他将才华、奉献精神和稳健性结合于工作中。(后一种品质对于持续成功至关重要。正如查理所说,拥有一个智商160的经理人很棒——除非他认为自己有180。)像阿吉特一样,托尼为伯克希尔创造了数百亿美元的价值。

原文

Tony became CEO of GEICO in 1993, and since then the company has been flying. There is no better manager than Tony, who brings his combination of brilliance, dedication and soundness to the job. (The latter quality is essential to sustained success. As Charlie says, it’s great to have a manager with a 160 IQ — unless he thinks it’s 180.) Like Ajit, Tony has created tens of billions of value for Berkshire.

1951年我第一次访问GEICO时,我被该公司相对于行业巨头所拥有的巨大成本优势所震撼。我清楚地知道GEICO会成功,因为它值得成功。当时公司的年销售额是800万美元;2016年,GEICO每年每三个小时就能完成那么多业务。

原文

On my initial visit to GEICO in 1951, I was blown away by the huge cost advantage the company enjoyed over the giants of the industry. It was clear to me that GEICO would succeed because it deserved to succeed. The company’s annual sales were then $8 million; In 2016, GEICO did that much business every three hours of the year.

汽车保险对大多数家庭来说是一项主要支出。节省对他们很重要——只有低成本的运营才能提供这些节省。事实上,阅读这封信的人中至少有40%可以通过在GEICO投保来省钱。所以请停止阅读——就是现在!——然后访问 geico.com 或拨打 800-847-7536。

原文

Auto insurance is a major expenditure for most families. Savings matter to them — and only a low-cost operation can deliver those. In fact, at least 40% of the people reading this letter can save money by insuring with GEICO. So stop reading — right now! — and go to geico.com or call 800-847-7536.

GEICO的低成本创造了一条护城河——一条持久的护城河——竞争对手无法跨越。因此,该公司年复一年地吞噬市场份额,2016年底约占行业总量的12%。这比1995年(伯克希尔获得GEICO控股权的那一年)的2.5%有所上升。与此同时,员工人数从8,575人增加到36,085人。

原文

GEICO’s low costs create a moat — an enduring one — that competitors are unable to cross. As a result, the company gobbles up market share year after year, ending 2016 with about 12% of industry volume. That’s up from 2.5% in 1995, the year Berkshire acquired control of GEICO. Employment, meanwhile, grew from 8,575 to 36,085.

2016年下半年,GEICO的增长急剧加速。整个汽车保险行业的损失成本一直以出乎意料的速度增长,一些竞争对手失去了承保新客户的热情。然而,GEICO对利润压力的反应是加速其新业务拓展。我们喜欢在太阳落山时晒干草,因为我们知道它肯定会再次升起。

原文

GEICO’s growth accelerated dramatically during the second half of 2016. Loss costs throughout the auto-insurance industry had been increasing at an unexpected pace and some competitors lost their enthusiasm for taking on new customers. GEICO’s reaction to the profit squeeze, however, was to accelerate its new-business efforts. We like to make hay while the sun sets, knowing that it will surely rise again.

在我向您发出这封信的时候,GEICO继续保持着良好势头。当保险价格上涨时,人们会更多地比较购物。

当他们比较购物时,GEICO就会赢。

您打电话了吗?(800-847-7536 或访问 geico.com)

原文

GEICO continues on a roll as I send you this letter. When insurance prices increase, people shop more.

And when they shop, GEICO wins.

Have you called yet? (800-847-7536 or go to geico.com)


除了我们的三大保险业务,我们还拥有一系列较小的公司,它们主要承保商业保险。总体来说,这些公司是一个庞大、不断增长且有价值的业务,持续产生承保利润,通常远高于其竞争对手的水平。在过去14年中,该集团从承保中赚取了47亿美元——约占其保费收入的13%——同时将其浮存金从9.43亿美元增加到116亿美元。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a collection of smaller companies that primarily write commercial coverages. In aggregate, these companies are a large, growing and valuable operation that consistently delivers an underwriting profit, usually one much superior to that reported by their competitors. Over the past 14 years, this group has earned $4.7 billion from underwriting — about 13% of its premium volume — while increasing its float from $943 million to $11.6 billion.

不到三年前,我们成立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦专业保险公司(“BHSI”),它包含在这个集团中。我们的第一个决定是让彼得·伊斯特伍德负责,这一举措被证明是本垒打:我们预计在早期几年会有显著的损失,因为彼得需要为全球业务建设人员和基础设施。相反,他和他的团队在初创期就带来了显著的承保利润。BHSI的保费收入在2016年增长了40%,达到13亿美元。我很清楚,该公司注定会成为世界领先的P/C保险公司之一。

原文

Less than three years ago, we formed Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (“BHSI”), which is included in this grouping. Our first decision was to put Peter Eastwood in charge, a move that proved to be a home run: We expected significant losses in the early years while Peter built the personnel and infrastructure needed for a world-wide operation. Instead, he and his crew delivered significant underwriting profits throughout the start-up period. BHSI’s volume increased 40% in 2016, reaching $1.3 billion. It’s clear to me that the company is destined to become one of the world’s leading P/C insurers.

以下按部门列出的税前承保利润和浮存金汇总:

承保利润年末**浮存金
(百万美元)
保险**业务2016201520162015
BH再保险$ 822$ 421$ 45,081$ 44,108
通用再保险19013217,69918,560
GEICO46246017,14815,148
其他主要保险65782411,6499,906
$2,131$1,837$ 91,577$ 87,722
原文

Here’s a recap of pre-tax underwriting earnings and float by division:

Underwriting ProfitYearend**Float
(in millions)
Insurance**Operations2016201520162015
BH Reinsurance$ 822$ 421$ 45,081$ 44,108
General Re19013217,69918,560
GEICO46246017,14815,148
Other Primary65782411,6499,906
$2,131$1,837$ 91,577$ 87,722

伯克希尔出色的经理人、一流的财务实力以及受宽护城河保护的商业模式组合,在保险界是独一无二的。这种实力组合对伯克希尔股东来说是一笔巨大的资产,时间只会让其更加宝贵。

原文

Berkshire’s great managers, premier financial strength and a range of business models protected by wide moats amount to something unique in the insurance world. This assemblage of strengths is a huge asset for Berkshire shareholders that time will only make more valuable.

受监管的资本密集型业务

我们的BNSF铁路公司和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE,我们持有90%股份的公用事业公司)具有共同的重要特征,使它们有别于伯克希尔的其他业务。因此,我们在本信中为它们分配了专门的章节,并在我们的GAAP资产负债表和损益表中单独列出了它们的合并财务统计数据。这两家非常重要的公司去年占伯克希尔税后运营收益的33%。

原文

Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

Our BNSF railroad and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”), our 90%-owned utility business, share important characteristics that distinguish them from Berkshire’s other activities. Consequently, we assign them their own section in this letter and split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement. These two very major companies accounted for 33% of Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings last year.

这两家公司的一个关键特征是它们对非常长寿的、受监管的资产进行了巨额投资,这些投资部分由大量长期债务提供资金,而这些债务并非由伯克希尔担保。事实上,我们的信用并非必需,因为每家公司即使在糟糕的经济条件下,其盈利能力也远超其利息要求。例如,去年在铁路行业令人失望的一年里,BNSF的利息覆盖倍数超过6:1。(我们对覆盖倍数的定义是息税前收益与利息的比率,而非 EBITDA/利息,这是一个常用但我们认为存在严重缺陷的衡量标准。)

原文

A key characteristic of both companies is their huge investment in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is in fact not needed because each company has earning power that even under terrible economic conditions would far exceed its interest requirements. Last year, for example, in a disappointing year for railroads, BNSF’s interest coverage was more than 6:1. (Our definition of coverage is the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to interest, not EBITDA/interest, a commonly-used measure we view as seriously flawed.)

同时,在BHE,有两个因素确保了公司在任何情况下都能偿还债务。第一个是所有公用事业公司共有的:抗衰退的盈利能力,这是因为这些公司提供的基本服务需求异常稳定。第二个是很少有其他公用事业公司享有的:不断扩大的收益来源多样性,这使BHE免受任何单一监管机构的严重伤害。这些多元化的利润来源,加上公司作为强大母公司所有者的固有优势,使得BHE及其公用事业子公司能够显著降低其债务成本。这一经济事实对我们我们的客户都有利。

原文

At BHE, meanwhile, two factors ensure the company’s ability to service its debt under all circumstances. The first is common to all utilities: recession-resistant earnings, which result from these companies offering an essential service for which demand is remarkably steady. The second is enjoyed by few other utilities: an ever-widening diversity of earnings streams, which shield BHE from being seriously harmed by any single regulatory body. These many sources of profit, supplemented by the inherent advantage of the company being owned by a strong parent, have allowed BHE and its utility subsidiaries to significantly lower their cost of debt. That economic fact benefits both us and our customers.

总体而言,BHE和BNSF去年在厂房和设备上投资了89亿美元,这是对美国基础设施领域的大规模承诺。只要这些投资能带来合理的回报,我们就乐于进行这样的投资——在这方面,我们对未来的监管寄予厚望。

原文

All told, BHE and BNSF invested $8.9 billion in plant and equipment last year, a massive commitment to their segments of America’s infrastructure. We relish making such investments as long as they promise reasonable returns — and, on that front, we put a large amount of trust in future regulation.

我们的信心既基于过去的经验,也基于这样一个认知:社会将永远需要交通和能源领域的巨额投资。政府以确保持续向关键项目提供资金的方式来对待资本提供者,这符合其自身利益。相应地,以赢得监管机构及其代表的人民认可的方式运营,也符合我们自身的利益。

原文

Our confidence is justified both by our past experience and by the knowledge that society will forever need huge investments in both transportation and energy. It is in the self-interest of governments to treat capital providers in a manner that will ensure the continued flow of funds to essential projects. It is concomitantly in our self-interest to conduct our operations in a way that earns the approval of our regulators and the people they represent.

低价是让这些群体满意的一个有力方式。在爱荷华州,BHE的平均零售电价为每千瓦时7.1美分。该州另一家主要电力公司Alliant的平均电价为9.9美分。以下是相邻州的可比行业数据:内布拉斯加州9.0美分、密苏里州9.5美分、伊利诺伊州9.2美分、明尼苏达州10.0美分。全国平均水平为10.3美分。我们已向爱荷华州人承诺,我们的基本电价最早在2029年之前不会上涨。我们的最低价格对于收入紧张的客户来说意味着实实在在的钱。

原文

Low prices are a powerful way to keep these constituencies happy. In Iowa, BHE’s average retail rate is 7.1¢ per KWH. Alliant, the other major electric utility in the state, averages 9.9¢. Here are the comparable industry figures for adjacent states: Nebraska 9.0¢, Missouri 9.5¢, Illinois 9.2¢, Minnesota 10.0¢. The national average is 10.3¢. We have promised Iowans that our base rates will not increase until 2029 at the earliest . Our rock-bottom prices add up to real money for paycheck-strapped customers.

在BNSF,主要铁路公司之间的价格比较要困难得多,因为它们的货物组合和平均运输距离存在显著差异。然而,提供一个非常粗略的衡量标准,我们去年的每吨英里收入为3美分,而美国其他四家主要铁路公司的客户运输成本在4美分到5美分之间。

原文

At BNSF, price comparisons between major railroads are far more difficult to make because of significant differences in both their mix of cargo and the average distance the load is carried. To supply a very crude measure, however, our revenue per ton-mile was 3¢ last year, while shipping costs for customers of the other four major U.S.-based railroads ranged from 4¢ to 5¢.

BHE和BNSF都是追求环保技术的领导者。在风能发电方面,没有一个州能接近爱荷华州,去年我们从风能生产的兆瓦时相当于我们爱荷华零售客户所有销售兆瓦时的55%。正在进行的新的风电项目将在2020年将这一比例提高到89%。

原文

Both BHE and BNSF have been leaders in pursuing planet-friendly technology. In wind generation, no state comes close to rivaling Iowa, where last year the megawatt-hours we generated from wind equaled 55% of all megawatt-hours sold to our Iowa retail customers. New wind projects that are underway will take that figure to 89% by 2020.

低廉的电价带来了次生效益。爱荷华州吸引了大量高科技设施,既因为其低廉的电价(数据中心大量用电),也因为大多数科技CEO热衷于使用可再生能源。在风能方面,爱荷华州是美国的沙特阿拉伯。

原文

Bargain-basement electric rates carry second-order benefits with them. Iowa has attracted large high-tech installations, both because of its low prices for electricity (which data centers use in huge quantities) and because most tech CEOs are enthusiastic about using renewable energy. When it comes to wind energy, Iowa is the Saudi Arabia of America.

BNSF,像其他一级铁路公司一样,仅用一加仑柴油就能将近500英里的货物运送一吨。这种经济性

回到现实:如果CEO们想在报告盈利时剔除股票薪酬,他们应该被要求向所有者确认以下两个命题之一:为什么用于支付员工的价值项目不是一项成本,或者为什么在计算盈利时应排除一项工资成本。

原文

Back to reality: If CEOs want to leave out stock-based compensation in reporting earnings, they should be required to affirm to their owners one of two propositions: why items of value used to pay employees are not a cost or why a payroll cost should be excluded when calculating earnings.

在20世纪60年代盛行的会计乱象中,流传着这样一个故事:一位CEO在公司准备上市时,问未来的审计师:“二加二等于几?”当然,赢得这个任务的答案是:“您心里想的是几?”

原文

During the accounting nonsense that flourished during the 1960s, the story was told of a CEO who, as his company revved up to go public, asked prospective auditors, “What is two plus two?” The answer that won the assignment, of course, was, “What number do you have in mind?”

金融与金融产品

我们的三个租赁和运营业务由CORT(家具)、XTRA(半挂车)和Marmon(主要是罐车,也包括货运车厢、多式联运罐式集装箱和起重机)运营。每家都是各自领域的领导者。

原文

Finance and Financial Products

Our three leasing and rental operations are conducted by CORT (furniture), XTRA (semi-trailers), and Marmon (primarily tank cars but also freight cars, intermodal tank containers and cranes). Each is the leader in its field.

我们也将Clayton Homes归入本节。这家公司的大部分收入来自销售活动房屋,但其盈利主要来源于其庞大的抵押贷款组合。去年,Clayton成为美国最大的房屋建筑商,交付了42,075套房屋,占美国新建房屋的5%。(公平地说,其他大型建筑商的美元销售额远高于Clayton,因为它们销售的是现场建造的房屋,价格要高得多。)

原文

We also include Clayton Homes in this section. This company receives most of its revenue from the sale of manufactured homes, but derives the bulk of its earnings from its large mortgage portfolio. Last year, Clayton became America’s largest home builder, delivering 42,075 units that accounted for 5% of all new American homes. (In fairness, other large builders do far more dollar volume than Clayton because they sell site-built homes that command much higher prices.)

2015年,Clayton拓展业务,收购了第一家现场建造房屋公司。2016年又进行了两次类似的收购,未来还会有更多。预计2017年,现场建造房屋将占Clayton房屋销售量的3%左右,并可能贡献其约14%的美元销售额。

原文

In 2015, Clayton branched out, purchasing its first site-builder. Two similar acquisitions followed in 2016, and more will come. Site-built houses are expected to amount to 3% or so of Clayton’s unit sales in 2017 and will likely deliver about 14% of its dollar volume.

即便如此,Clayton的重点将始终是活动房屋,这类房屋约占美国售价低于15万美元新建房屋的70%。Clayton生产其中近一半的房屋。这与2003年伯克希尔收购该公司时Clayton的地位相去甚远。当时,它在行业销量中排名第三,员工人数为6,731人。现在,包括其新收购的业务,员工人数已达到14,677人。而且这个数字未来还会增加。

原文

Even so, Clayton’s focus will always be manufactured homes, which account for about 70% of new American homes costing less than $150,000. Clayton manufactures close to one-half of the total. That is a far cry from Clayton’s position in 2003 when Berkshire purchased the company. It then ranked third in the industry in units sold and employed 6,731 people. Now, when its new acquisitions are included, the employee count is 14,677. And that number will increase in the future.

近年来,Clayton的盈利极大受益于极低的利率。该公司向购房者提供的抵押贷款是固定利率且期限较长(初始平均为25年)。但Clayton自身的借款是短期信贷,利率会频繁重置。当利率暴跌时,Clayton从其投资组合中获得的盈利会大幅增加。我们通常会避开这种借短贷长的做法,这可能会给金融机构带来重大问题。然而,总体而言,伯克希尔始终是资产敏感的,这意味着短期利率上升将有利于我们的合并盈利,即使这会损害Clayton。

原文

Clayton’s earnings in recent years have materially benefited from extraordinarily low interest rates. The company’s mortgage loans to home-buyers are at fixed-rates and for long terms (averaging 25 years at inception). But Clayton’s own borrowings are short-term credits that re-price frequently. When rates plunge, Clayton’s earnings from its portfolio greatly increase. We normally would shun that kind of lend-long, borrow- short approach, which can cause major problems for financial institutions. As a whole, however, Berkshire is always asset-sensitive, meaning that higher short-term rates will benefit our consolidated earnings, even as they hurt at Clayton.

去年,Clayton不得不取消8,304笔活动房屋抵押贷款的赎回权,约占其总投资的2.5%。客户的人口统计数据有助于解释这个百分比。Clayton的客户通常是信用评分较低的低收入家庭;许多人依赖在经济衰退中面临风险的工作;同样,许多人的财务状况会因离婚或死亡而受损,其程度对于高收入家庭来说并不典型。我们客户面临的这些风险在一定程度上得到了缓解,因为几乎所有人都有强烈的购房愿望,并且他们负担得起合理的月供,平均仅为587美元,包括保险和房产税的费用。

原文

Last year Clayton had to foreclose on 8,304 manufactured-housing mortgages, about 2.5% of its total portfolio. Customer demographics help explain that percentage. Clayton’s customers are usually lower-income families with mediocre credit scores; many are supported by jobs that will be at risk in any recession; many, similarly, have financial profiles that will be damaged by divorce or death to an extent that would not be typical for a high-income family. Those risks that our customers face are partly mitigated because almost all have a strong desire to own a home and because they enjoy reasonable monthly payments that average only $587, including the cost of insurance and property taxes.

Clayton也长期设有帮助借款人渡过难关的项目。最受欢迎的两个是贷款延期和减免还款。去年,约有11,000名借款人获得了延期,3,800名借款人被Clayton永久取消了价值340万美元的应付款项。在进行这些减损措施时,公司不赚取利息或费用。我们的经验是,过去两年通过这些项目获得帮助的借款人中,有93%至今仍住在自己的房子里。由于我们在止赎方面损失惨重——去年损失总额达1.5亿美元——我们的援助项目最终帮助了Clayton及其借款人。

原文

Clayton also has long had programs that help borrowers through difficulties. The two most popular are loan extensions and payment forgiveness. Last year about 11,000 borrowers received extensions, and 3,800 had

$3.4 million of scheduled payments permanently canceled by Clayton. The company does not earn interest or fees when these loss-mitigation moves are made. Our experience is that 93% of borrowers helped through these programs in the last two years now remain in their homes. Since we lose significant sums on foreclosures — losses last year totaled $150 million — our assistance programs end up helping Clayton as well as its borrowers.

Clayton和伯克希尔一直是极好的合作伙伴。Kevin Clayton带着一流的管理团队和文化来到我们这里。反过来,伯克希尔在活动房屋行业在大衰退期间崩溃时,提供了无与伦比的持久力。(当其他行业贷款方消失时,Clayton不仅向其自己的经销商提供信贷,还向销售其竞争对手产品的经销商提供信贷。)在伯克希尔,我们在收购公司时从不指望协同效应。但在收购Clayton之后,真正的重大协同效应出现了。

原文

Clayton and Berkshire have been a wonderful partnership. Kevin Clayton came to us with a best-in-class management group and culture. Berkshire, in turn, provided unmatched staying power when the manufactured- home industry fell apart during the Great Recession. (As other lenders to the industry vanished, Clayton supplied credit not only to its own dealers but also to dealers who sold the products of its competitors.) At Berkshire, we never count on synergies when we acquire companies. Truly important ones, however, surfaced after our purchase of Clayton.

Marmon的铁路车辆业务去年需求大幅放缓,这将导致2017年盈利下降。12月份的车队利用率为91%,低于一年前的97%,其中我们在2015年从通用电气购买的大型车队下降尤为严重。Marmon的起重机和集装箱租赁业务也有所减弱。

原文

Marmon’s railcar business experienced a major slowdown in demand last year, which will cause earnings to decline in 2017. Fleet utilization was 91% in December, down from 97% a year earlier, with the drop particularly severe at the large fleet we purchased from General Electric in 2015. Marmon’s crane and container rentals have weakened as well.

过去铁路车辆需求曾出现过大幅波动,未来还会继续。尽管如此,我们非常喜欢这项业务,并预计未来几年将获得可观的股本回报率。罐车是Marmon的专长。人们通常将罐车与原油运输联系起来;事实上,它们对于各种各样的托运人都是必不可少的。

原文

Big swings in railcar demand have occurred in the past and they will continue. Nevertheless, we very much like this business and expect decent returns on equity capital over the years. Tank cars are Marmon’s specialty. People often associate tank cars with the transportation of crude oil; in fact, they are essential to a great variety of shippers.

随着时间的推移,我们预计将扩大我们的铁路车辆业务。与此同时,Marmon正在进行一些补强型收购,其结果包含在制造、服务和零售部分。

原文

Over time, we expect to expand our railcar operation. Meanwhile, Marmon is making a number of bolt-on acquisitions whose results are included in the Manufacturing, Service and Retailing section.

以下是我们的金融相关公司的税前盈利摘要:

201620152014
(单位:百万美元)
Berkadia(我们50%的份额)$ 91$ 74$ 122
Clayton744706558
CORT605549
Marmon – 集装箱和起重机126192238
Marmon – 铁路车辆654546442
XTRA179172147
净金融收入*276341283
$ 2,130$ 2,086$ 1,839
原文

Here’s the pre-tax earnings recap for our finance-related companies:

201620152014
(in millions)
Berkadia (our 50% share)$ 91$ 74$ 122
Clayton744706558
CORT605549
Marmon – Containers and Cranes126192238
Marmon – Railcars654546442
XTRA179172147
Net financial income*276341283
$ 2,130$ 2,086$ 1,839

投资

下面我们列出截至年末市值最大的十五项普通股投资。我们排除了对卡夫亨氏的持股,因为伯克希尔是控股集团的一部分,因此必须采用“权益”法核算此项投资。伯克希尔持有的325,442,152股卡夫亨氏股票,在我们资产负债表上按GAAP记账的价值为153亿美元,年末市值为284亿美元。我们的这些股票成本基础为98亿美元。

2016年12月31日
持股数量*公司持股比例成本****市值
(单位:百万美元)
151,610,700美国运通公司16.8%$ 1,287$ 11,231
61,242,652苹果公司1.1%6,7477,093
6,789,054特许通讯公司2.5%1,2101,955
400,000,000可口可乐公司9.3%1,29916,584
54,934,718达美航空公司7.5%2,2992,702
11,390,582高盛集团2.9%6542,727
81,232,303国际商业机器公司8.5%13,81513,484
24,669,778穆迪公司12.9%2482,326
74,587,892菲利普斯6614.4%5,8416,445
22,169,930赛诺菲1.7%1,6921,791
43,203,775西南航空公司7.0%1,7572,153
101,859,335美国合众银行6.0%3,2395,233
26,620,184联合大陆控股公司8.4%1,4771,940
43,387,980USG公司29.7%8361,253
500,000,000富国银行10.0%12,73027,555
其他10,69717,560
按市值计价的普通股总计$ 65,828$ 122,032
原文

Investments

Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value. We exclude our Kraft Heinz holding because Berkshire is part of a control group and therefore must account for this investment on the “equity” method. The 325,442,152 shares Berkshire owns of Kraft Heinz are carried on our balance sheet at a GAAP figure of $15.3 billion and had a yearend market value of $28.4 billion. Our cost basis for the shares is $9.8 billion.

12/31/1**6
Shares*CompanyPercentage**of Company**OwnedCost****Market
(inmillions*)*
151,610,700American Express Company16.8$ 1,287$ 11,231
61,242,652Apple Inc.1.16,7477,093
6,789,054Charter Communications, Inc.2.51,2101,955
400,000,000The Coca-Cola Company9.31,29916,584
54,934,718Delta Airlines Inc.7.52,2992,702
11,390,582The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.2.96542,727
81,232,303International Business Machines Corp.8.513,81513,484
24,669,778Moody’s Corporation12.92482,326
74,587,892Phillips 6614.45,8416,445
22,169,930Sanofi1.71,6921,791
43,203,775Southwest Airlines Co.7.01,7572,153
101,859,335U.S. Bancorp6.03,2395,233
26,620,184United Continental Holdings Inc8.41,4771,940
43,387,980USG Corp.29.78361,253
500,000,000Wells Fargo & Company10.012,73027,555
Others10,69717,560
Total Common Stocks Carried at Market$ 65,828$ 122,032

表中部分股票由与我共同管理伯克希尔投资的Todd Combs或Ted Weschler负责。每人独立管理超过100亿美元;我通常通过查看月度交易表来了解他们的决策。他们两人管理的210亿美元中,包括伯克希尔某些子公司约76亿美元的养老金信托资产。如前所述,养老金投资不包括在上述伯克希尔持股表中。

原文

Some of the stocks in the table are the responsibility of either Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, who work with me in managing Berkshire’s investments. Each, independently, manages more than $10 billion; I usually learn about decisions they have made by looking at monthly trade sheets. Included in the $21 billion that the two manage is about $7.6 billion of pension trust assets of certain Berkshire subsidiaries. As noted, pension investments are not included in the preceding tabulation of Berkshire holdings.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

未包含在上述表格中——但很重要——的是我们持有的50亿美元美国银行优先股。该股票每年向我们支付3亿美元,还附带一份有价值的认股权证,允许伯克希尔在2021年9月2日之前的任何时候以50亿美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行普通股。在年末,该特权将为我们带来105亿美元的利润。如果伯克希尔愿意,它可以用其优先股来满足行使认股权证所需的50亿美元。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Excluded from the table — but important — is our ownership of $5 billion of preferred stock issued by Bank of America. This stock, which pays us $300 million per year, also carries with it a valuable warrant allowing Berkshire to purchase 700 million common shares of Bank of America for $5 billion at any time before September 2, 2021. At yearend, that privilege would have delivered us a profit of $10.5 billion. If it wishes, Berkshire can use its preferred shares to satisfy the $5 billion cost of exercising the warrant.

如果美国银行普通股的股息率——目前为每年30美分——在2021年之前上升至44美分以上,我们预计将进行无现金交换,将优先股转换为普通股。如果普通股股息保持在44美分以下,则我们很可能在认股权证到期前立即行使。

原文

If the dividend rate on Bank of America common stock — now 30 cents annually — should rise above 44 cents before 2021, we would anticipate making a cashless exchange of our preferred into common. If the common dividend remains below 44 cents, it is highly probable that we will exercise the warrant immediately before it expires.

我们的许多被投资公司,包括美国银行,一直在回购股票,有些甚至相当积极。我们非常喜欢这种行为,因为我们相信在大多数情况下,回购的股票被低估了。(毕竟,低估正是我们持有这些头寸的原因。)当一家公司增长且流通股减少时,好事就会降临到股东身上。

原文

Many of our investees, including Bank of America, have been repurchasing shares, some quite aggressively. We very much like this behavior because we believe the repurchased shares have in most cases been underpriced. (Undervaluation, after all, is why we own these positions.) When a company grows and outstanding shares shrink, good things happen for shareholders.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

重要的是,您需要了解我们资产负债表上显示的860亿美元“现金及等价物”(在我看来包括美国国库券)中,有95%由美国境内的实体持有,因此无需缴纳任何汇回税。此外,汇回剩余资金只会产生少量税款,因为其中大部分资金是在对公司征收可观公司税的国家赚取的。当资金汇回美国时,这些已缴税款可用来抵免美国税款。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

It’s important for you to understand that 95% of the $86 billion of “cash and equivalents” (which in my mind includes U.S. Treasury Bills) shown on our balance sheet are held by entities in the United States and, consequently, is not subject to any repatriation tax. Moreover, repatriation of the remaining funds would trigger only minor taxes because much of that money has been earned in countries that themselves impose meaningful corporate taxes. Those payments become an offset to U.S. tax when money is brought home.

这些解释很重要,因为许多现金充裕的美国公司将大部分资金存放在税率极低的司法管辖区。这些公司希望——并且很可能被证明是正确的——将资金带回美国所需缴纳的税款很快将大幅降低。与此同时,这些公司能够如何使用这些现金受到限制。换句话说,离岸现金根本不如本土现金值钱。

原文

These explanations are important because many cash-rich American companies hold a large portion of their funds in jurisdictions imposing very low taxes. Such companies hope — and may well be proved right — that the tax levied for bringing these funds to America will soon be materially reduced. In the meantime, these companies are limited as to how they can use that cash. In other words, off-shore cash is simply not worth as much as cash held at home.

伯克希尔对其现金有利的地理位置有一个部分抵消因素,那就是其大部分现金持有在保险子公司中。尽管我们有许多投资这些现金的选择,但我们没有像现金由母公司伯克希尔持有时那样享有无限的选择权。我们确实有能力每年从保险公司向母公司分配大量现金——尽管这里也有限制。总体而言,保险子公司持有的现金是一项非常有价值的资产,但对我们的价值略低于母公司层面持有的现金。

原文

Berkshire has a partial offset to the favorable geographical location of its cash, which is that much of it is held in our insurance subsidiaries. Though we have many alternatives for investing this cash, we do not have the unlimited choices that we would enjoy if the cash were held by the parent company, Berkshire. We do have an ability annually to distribute large amounts of cash from our insurers to the parent — though here, too, there are limits. Overall, cash held at our insurers is a very valuable asset, but one slightly less valuable to us than is cash held at the parent level.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

有时股东或媒体的评论暗示我们将“永远”持有某些股票。确实,我们持有一些我无意在可预见的未来出售的股票(而且我们说的是20/20的视力)。但我们从未承诺伯克希尔将永远持有任何有价证券。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Sometimes the comments of shareholders or media imply that we will own certain stocks “forever.” It is true that we own some stocks that I have no intention of selling for as far as the eye can see (and we’re talking 20/20 vision). But we have made no commitment that Berkshire will hold any of its marketable securities forever.

关于这一点的混淆可能源于对第110-111页经济原则11的过于随意的阅读,该原则自1983年以来一直包含在我们的年度报告中。该原则涵盖的是受控企业,而非有价证券。今年我在第11条中增加了一句话,以确保我们的所有者理解,我们将任何有价证券视为可出售的,无论目前这种出售看起来多么不可能。

原文

Confusion about this point may have resulted from a too-casual reading of Economic Principle 11 on pages 110 - 111, which has been included in our annual reports since 1983. That principle covers controlled businesses, not marketable securities. This year I’ve added a final sentence to #11 to ensure that our owners understand that we regard any marketable security as available for sale, however unlikely such a sale now seems.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

在我们结束本节之前,先讲一些关于股息和税收的教育性内容:伯克希尔,像大多数公司一样,从每一美元的股息中获得的净收益高于从每一美元的资本利得中获得的收益。这可能会让那些习惯于将资本利得视为获得税收优惠回报途径的股东感到惊讶。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Before we leave this investment section, a few educational words about dividends and taxes: Berkshire, like most corporations, nets considerably more from a dollar of dividends than it reaps from a dollar of capital gains. That will probably surprise those of our shareholders who are accustomed to thinking of capital gains as the route to tax-favored returns.

公司层面的计算是这样的。公司实现的每一美元资本利得,都要缴纳35美分的联邦所得税(通常还有州所得税)。然而,从国内公司收到的股息所缴纳的税款一直较低,尽管税率因收款人的身份而异。

原文

But here’s the corporate math. Every $1 of capital gains that a corporation realizes carries with it 35 cents of federal income tax (and often state income tax as well). The tax on dividends received from domestic corporations, however, is consistently lower, though rates vary depending on the status of the recipient.

对于非保险公司——这描述了母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦——每收到1美元股息,联邦实际税率约为10.5美分。此外,持有被投资公司20%以上股份的非保险公司,每收到1美元股息仅需缴纳7美分的税款。例如,该税率适用于我们从持股27%的卡夫亨氏获得的大额股息,这些股份全部由母公司持有。(对股息征收低公司税的理由是,支付股息的被投资公司已经为其分配的收益缴纳了自身的公司税。)

原文

For a non-insurance company — which describes Berkshire Hathaway, the parent — the federal tax rate is effectively 10½ cents per $1 of dividends received. Furthermore, a non-insurance company that owns more than 20% of an investee owes taxes of only 7 cents per $1 of dividends. That rate applies, for example, to the substantial dividends we receive from our 27% ownership of Kraft Heinz, all of it held by the parent company. (The rationale for the low corporate taxes on dividends is that the dividend-paying investee has already paid its own corporate tax on the earnings being distributed.)

伯克希尔的保险子公司对股息支付的税率略高于非保险公司,但仍远低于资本利得所需的35%。财产/意外伤害保险公司对其收到的大部分股息需缴纳约14%的税款。不过,如果它们持有一家美国被投资公司20%以上的股份,税率将降至约11%。

原文

Berkshire’s insurance subsidiaries pay a tax rate on dividends that is somewhat higher than that applying to non-insurance companies, though the rate is still well below the 35% hitting capital gains. Property/casualty companies owe about 14% in taxes on most dividends they receive. Their tax rate falls, though, to about 11% if they own more than 20% of a U.S.-based investee.

以上就是今天的税务课程。

原文

And that’s our tax lesson for today.

“赌约”(或你的钱如何流向华尔街)

在本节中,你一开始会看到一个我九年前下注的投资赌约故事,接着是我对投资的一些强烈看法。不过,作为开场,我想简要介绍一下Long Bets,这个独特的机构在赌约中扮演了角色。

原文

“The Bet” (or how your money finds its way to Wall Street)

In this section, you will encounter, early on, the story of an investment bet I made nine years ago and, next, some strong opinions I have about investing. As a starter, though, I want to briefly describe Long Bets, a unique establishment that played a role in the bet.

Long Bets由亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯出资创办,作为一个非营利组织运营,管理的正是你所猜测的:长期赌约。要参与,“提议者”在Longbets.org上发布一个将在未来某个遥远日期被证实对或错的命题。然后他们等待持反对意见的人接下赌约的另一边。当“怀疑者”出现时,双方各自指定一个慈善机构,如果己方获胜,该机构将成为受益人;将赌注交给Long Bets保管;并在Long Bets网站上发布一篇短文,为自己的立场辩护。当赌约结束时,Long Bets向获胜的慈善机构支付款项。

原文

Long Bets was seeded by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and operates as a non-profit organization that administers just what you’d guess: long-term bets. To participate, “proposers” post a proposition at Longbets.org that will be proved right or wrong at a distant date. They then wait for a contrary-minded party to take the other side of the bet. When a “doubter” steps forward, each side names a charity that will be the beneficiary if its side wins; parks its wager with Long Bets; and posts a short essay defending its position on the Long Bets website. When the bet is concluded, Long Bets pays off the winning charity.

以下是在Long Bets非常有趣的网站上能看到的例子:

2002年,企业家米切尔·卡普尔断言:“到2029年,没有计算机——或‘机器智能’——能够通过图灵测试”,该测试涉及计算机是否能成功模仿人类。发明家雷·库兹韦尔持相反观点。每人以1万美元作为赌注。我不知道谁会赢得这个赌约,但我可以自信地打赌,没有计算机能复制查理。

原文

Here are examples of what you will find on Long Bets’ very interesting site:

In 2002, entrepreneur Mitch Kapor asserted that “By 2029 no computer — or ‘machine intelligence’ — will have passed the Turing Test,” which deals with whether a computer can successfully impersonate a human being. Inventor Ray Kurzweil took the opposing view. Each backed up his opinion with $10,000. I don’t know who will win this bet, but I will confidently wager that no computer will ever replicate Charlie.

同年,微软的克雷格·蒙迪断言,到2030年,无人驾驶飞机将常规性地搭载乘客飞行,而谷歌的埃里克·施密特则持反对意见。赌注各为1000美元。为了缓解埃里克因巨额敞口可能感到的不安,我最近提出接手他的一部分赌注。他立即向我转移了500美元的风险。(我喜欢他的假设,即如果输了,到2030年我还在世,可以支付我的那份。)

原文

That same year, Craig Mundie of Microsoft asserted that pilotless planes would routinely fly passengers by 2030, while Eric Schmidt of Google argued otherwise. The stakes were $1,000 each. To ease any heartburn Eric might be experiencing from his outsized exposure, I recently offered to take a piece of his action. He promptly laid off $500 with me. (I like his assumption that I’ll be around in 2030 to contribute my payment, should we lose.)

现在,来说说我的赌约及其历史。在伯克希尔2005年的年报中,我提出,专业投资管理人士的主动管理——总体而言——在数年内将跑输那些只是静坐不动的纯粹业余投资者的回报。我解释说,各种“帮手”收取的巨额费用将使他们的客户——再次强调,总体而言——不如那些业余投资者简单投资于一个不主动管理的低成本指数基金。(参见第114-115页,我最初在2005年年报中陈述的论点原文。)

原文

Now, to my bet and its history. In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals — in aggregate — would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. I explained that the massive fees levied by a variety of “helpers” would leave their clients — again in aggregate — worse off than if the amateurs simply invested in an unmanaged low-cost index fund. (See pages 114 - 115 for a reprint of the argument as I originally stated it in the 2005 report.)

随后,我公开发起了一个50万美元的赌约,声称没有哪位投资专业人士能够挑选出一篮子至少五只对冲基金——这些是广受欢迎且收费高昂的投资工具——使其在长期内能够匹配一个仅收取象征性费用的、不主动管理的标普500指数基金的表现。我提议为期十年,并指定一只低成本的先锋标普基金作为我的对手。然后我坐等一队基金经理——他们可以把自己的基金作为五只之一——站出来捍卫他们的职业。毕竟,这些经理人鼓励别人用数十亿来押注他们的能力。他们为什么要害怕用自己的钱赌一把呢?

原文

Subsequently, I publicly offered to wager $500,000 that no investment pro could select a set of at least five hedge funds — wildly-popular and high-fee investing vehicles — that would over an extended period match the performance of an unmanaged S&P-500 index fund charging only token fees. I suggested a ten-year bet and named a low-cost Vanguard S&P fund as my contender. I then sat back and waited expectantly for a parade of fund managers — who could include their own fund as one of the five — to come forth and defend their occupation. After all, these managers urged others to bet billions on their abilities. Why should they fear putting a little of their own money on the line?

紧接着是一片沉默。尽管有成千上万的专业投资经理通过吹嘘自己选股的本领积累了惊人的财富,但只有一个人——泰德·西德斯——接受了我的挑战。泰德是Protégé Partners的联合管理人,这家资产管理公司从有限合伙人那里筹集资金,成立了一只基金的基金——换句话说,就是一只投资于多只对冲基金的基金。

原文

What followed was the sound of silence. Though there are thousands of professional investment managers who have amassed staggering fortunes by touting their stock-selecting prowess, only one man — Ted Seides — stepped up to my challenge. Ted was a co-manager of Protégé Partners, an asset manager that had raised money from limited partners to form a fund-of-funds — in other words, a fund that invests in multiple hedge funds.

在我们打赌之前我并不认识泰德,但我喜欢他,并钦佩他愿意用自己的钱来证明自己的观点。他对我一直很坦诚,并一丝不苟地提供了我们监控赌约所需的所有数据。

原文

I hadn’t known Ted before our wager, but I like him and admire his willingness to put his money where his mouth was. He has been both straight-forward with me and meticulous in supplying all the data that both he and I have needed to monitor the bet.

为了Protégé Partners在我们十年赌约中的立场,泰德挑选了五只基金的基金,将其结果进行平均,并与我的先锋标普指数基金进行比较。他挑选的五只基金投资了超过100只对冲基金,这意味着基金的基金的整体表现不会因为任何单一经理人的好坏结果而失真。

原文

For Protégé Partners’ side of our ten-year bet, Ted picked five funds-of-funds whose results were to be averaged and compared against my Vanguard S&P index fund. The five he selected had invested their money in more than 100 hedge funds, which meant that the overall performance of the funds-of-funds would not be distorted by the good or poor results of a single manager.

当然,每只基金的基金都有一层费用,附加在其投资的对冲基金所收取的费用之上。在这种双重收费结构中,更高的费用由基础对冲基金收取;每只基金的基金则因其所谓的选择对冲基金管理人的技能而额外收取费用。

原文

Each fund-of-funds, of course, operated with a layer of fees that sat above the fees charged by the hedge funds in which it had invested. In this doubling-up arrangement, the larger fees were levied by the underlying hedge funds; each of the fund-of-funds imposed an additional fee for its presumed skills in selecting hedge-fund managers.

以下是最初九年赌约的结果——这些数字毫无疑问地表明,奥马哈女童公司(The Girls Inc. of Omaha),即我指定的、如果赢得赌约将获得收益的慈善受益人,将是明年一月急切拆开邮件的那家机构。

年份基金A基金B基金C基金D基金E标普指数基金
2008-16.5%-22.3%-21.3%-29.3%-30.1%-37.0%
200911.3%14.5%21.4%16.5%16.8%26.6%
20105.9%6.8%13.3%4.9%11.9%15.1%
2011-6.3%-1.3%5.9%-6.3%-2.8%2.1%
20123.4%9.6%5.7%6.2%9.1%16.0%
201310.5%15.2%8.8%14.2%14.4%32.3%
20144.7%4.0%18.9%0.7%-2.1%13.6%
20151.6%2.5%5.4%1.4%-5.0%1.4%
2016-2.9%1.7%-1.4%2.5%4.4%11.9%
至今累计涨幅8.7%28.3%62.8%2.9%7.5%85.4%
原文

Here are the results for the first nine years of the bet — figures leaving no doubt that Girls Inc. of Omaha, the charitable beneficiary I designated to get any bet winnings I earned, will be the organization eagerly opening the mail next January.

YearFund of Funds AFund of Funds BFund of Funds CFund of Funds DFund of Funds ES&P Index Fund
2008-16.5%-22.3%-21.3%-29.3%-30.1%-37.0%
200911.3%14.5%21.4%16.5%16.8%26.6%
20105.9%6.8%13.3%4.9%11.9%15.1%
2011-6.3%-1.3%5.9%-6.3%-2.8%2.1%
20123.4%9.6%5.7%6.2%9.1%16.0%
201310.5%15.2%8.8%14.2%14.4%32.3%
20144.7%4.0%18.9%0.7%-2.1%13.6%
20151.6%2.5%5.4%1.4%-5.0%1.4%
2016-2.9%1.7%-1.4%2.5%4.4%11.9%
Gain to Date8.7%28.3%62.8%2.9%7.5%85.4%

脚注:根据我与Protégé Partners的协议,这些基金的基金的名称从未公开披露过。不过,我看到了它们的年度审计报告。

原文

Footnote: Under my agreement with Protégé Partners, the names of these funds-of-funds have never been publicly disclosed. I, however, see their annual audits.

指数基金迄今为止的年复合增长率为7.1%,这一回报很可能会成为股市长期表现的典型特征。这是一个重要事实:在这个赌约期间,如果市场出现特别疲软的九年,可能会有利于对冲基金的相对表现,因为许多对冲基金持有大量的“空头”头寸。相反,如果股票取得异常高的九年回报,则会为指数基金带来顺风。

原文

The compounded annual increase to date for the index fund is 7.1%, which is a return that could easily prove typical for the stock market over time. That’s an important fact: A particularly weak nine years for the market over the lifetime of this bet would have probably helped the relative performance of the hedge funds, because many hold large “short” positions. Conversely, nine years of exceptionally high returns from stocks would have provided a tailwind for index funds.

相反,我们处于我称之为“中性”的环境中。在这种情况下,五只基金的基金截至2016年的年化收益率平均仅为2.2%。这意味着投资于这些基金的100万美元将获得22万美元的收益。而指数基金则将获得85.4万美元的收益。

原文

Instead we operated in what I would call a “neutral” environment. In it, the five funds-of-funds delivered, through 2016, an average of only 2.2%, compounded annually. That means $1 million invested in those funds would have gained $220,000. The index fund would meanwhile have gained $854,000.

请记住,基础对冲基金的100多位经理人中的每一位都有巨大的财务动力去尽其所能。此外,泰德挑选的五位基金的基金经理人同样有动力去挑选最好的对冲基金经理人,因为这五位经理人有权根据基础基金的表现获得业绩报酬。

原文

Bear in mind that every one of the 100-plus managers of the underlying hedge funds had a huge financial incentive to do his or her best. Moreover, the five funds-of-funds managers that Ted selected were similarly incentivized to select the best hedge-fund managers possible because the five were entitled to performance fees based on the results of the underlying funds.

我确信,在几乎所有情况下,两个层面的经理人都是诚实和聪明的人。但他们的投资者的结果却是惨淡的——真的惨淡。而且,可悲的是,所有基金和基金的基金收取的巨额固定费用——这些费用完全不能用业绩来证明其合理性——使得这些经理人在过去的九年里获得了丰厚的报酬。正如戈登·盖柯可能会说的:“费用永不眠。”

原文

I’m certain that in almost all cases the managers at both levels were honest and intelligent people. But the results for their investors were dismal — really dismal. And, alas, the huge fixed fees charged by all of the funds and funds-of-funds involved — fees that were totally unwarranted by performance — were such that their managers were showered with compensation over the nine years that have passed. As Gordon Gekko might have put it: “Fees never sleep.”

我们赌约中的基础对冲基金经理人从他们的有限合伙人那里获得的报酬,可能略低于当时对冲基金行业通行的“2和20”标准,即每年2%的固定管理费,即使发生巨大亏损也要支付,以及20%的利润分成,且无追回条款(如果好年景之后是坏年景)。在这种不平衡的安排下,对冲基金运营商仅仅通过堆积管理资产的能力,就让许多这样的经理人变得极其富有,即使他们的投资表现糟糕。

原文

The underlying hedge-fund managers in our bet received payments from their limited partners that likely averaged a bit under the prevailing hedge-fund standard of “2 and 20,” meaning a 2% annual fixed fee, payable even when losses are huge, and 20% of profits with no clawback (if good years were followed by bad ones). Under this lopsided arrangement, a hedge fund operator’s ability to simply pile up assets under management has made many of these managers extraordinarily rich, even as their investments have performed poorly.

但是,费用还没完。别忘了,还要养活基金的基金经理人。这些经理人额外收取一笔固定费用,通常为资产规模的1%。然后,尽管五只基金的基金整体记录糟糕,但其中一些在个别好年份仍然收取了“业绩”费用。因此,我估计,在这九年期间,五只基金的基金所实现的总收益中,大约有60%——天哪!——被两个层面的经理人拿走了。这是他们完成了一件远不如其数百位有限合伙人本可以毫不费力且几乎成本自己完成的事情,而获得的不当报酬。

原文

Still, we’re not through with fees. Remember, there were the fund-of-funds managers to be fed as well. These managers received an additional fixed amount that was usually set at 1% of assets. Then, despite the terrible overall record of the five funds-of-funds, some experienced a few good years and collected “performance” fees. Consequently, I estimate that over the nine-year period roughly 60% — gulp! — of all gains achieved by the five funds-of-funds were diverted to the two levels of managers. That was their misbegotten reward for accomplishing something far short of what their many hundreds of limited partners could have effortlessly — and with virtually no cost — achieved on their own.

在我看来,这个赌约所揭示的对冲基金投资者的令人失望的结果,未来几乎肯定会重演。在赌约开始时,我在Long Bets网站上发布了一份声明,阐述了我对此观点的理由(该声明现在仍在网站上)。我当时的断言如下:

从2008年1月1日开始至2017年12月31日结束的十年期间,标普500指数的表现将优于一篮子对冲基金基金组合,业绩按扣除所有费用、成本及开支后的净值衡量。

许多非常聪明的人试图在证券市场上取得超越平均水平的成绩。称他们为主动投资者。

他们的对立面,被动投资者,按定义将大致获得平均回报。总体而言,他们的头寸将或多或少地近似于一只指数基金。因此,整个宇宙的平衡——主动投资者——也必须获得大致平均的回报。然而,这些投资者将承担高得多的成本。因此,总体而言,他们在扣除这些成本后的总回报将低于被动投资者。

当年度巨额管理费、高额业绩报酬和频繁交易的成本都加入主动投资者的方程式中时,成本就会飙升。基金的基金加剧了这个问题,因为它们的费用叠加在它们投资的对冲基金收取的巨额费用之上。

有许多聪明的人在经营对冲基金。但在很大程度上,他们的努力是彼此抵消的,他们的智商无法克服他们强加给投资者的成本。平均而言,随着时间的推移,投资于低成本指数基金的投资者将比投资于一组基金的基金的投资者表现更好。

原文

In my opinion, the disappointing results for hedge-fund investors that this bet exposed are almost certain to recur in the future. I laid out my reasons for that belief in a statement that was posted on the Long Bets website when the bet commenced (and that is still posted there). Here is what I asserted:

Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses

A lot of very smart people set out to do better than average in securities markets. Call them active investors.

Their opposites, passive investors, will by definition do about average. In aggregate their positions will more or less approximate those of an index fund. Therefore, the balance of the universe—the active investors—must do about average as well. However, these investors will incur far greater costs. So, on balance, their aggregate results after these costs will be worse than those of the passive investors.

Costs skyrocket when large annual fees, large performance fees, and active trading costs are all added to the active investor’s equation. Funds of hedge funds accentuate this cost problem because their fees are superimposed on the large fees charged by the hedge funds in which the funds of funds are invested.

A number of smart people are involved in running hedge funds. But to a great extent their efforts are self-neutralizing, and their IQ will not overcome the costs they impose on investors. Investors, on average and over time, will do better with a low-cost index fund than with a group of funds of funds.

这就是我的论点——现在让我把它简化为一个方程式。如果A组(主动投资者)和B组(无为投资者)构成了整个投资宇宙,并且B注定要在扣除成本前获得平均结果,那么A也必须如此。成本较低的那一组将获胜。(学术上,我需要提及有一个非常细微的点——不值一提——会对这个公式稍作修正。)如果A组成本过高,其落后幅度将相当可观。

原文

So that was my argument — and now let me put it into a simple equation. If Group A (active investors) and Group B (do-nothing investors) comprise the total investing universe, and B is destined to achieve average results before costs, so, too, must A. Whichever group has the lower costs will win. (The academic in me requires me to mention that there is a very minor point — not worth detailing — that slightly modifies this formulation.) And if Group A has exorbitant costs, its shortfall will be substantial.

当然,确实有一些技能娴熟的个体极有可能在长期内跑赢标普指数。但在我的一生中,早期**我只识别出了大约十位我预期能实现这一壮举的专业人士。

原文

There are, of course, some skilled individuals who are highly likely to out-perform the S&P over long stretches. In my lifetime, though, I’ve identified — early on — only ten or so professionals that I expected would accomplish this feat.

毫无疑问,还有数百人——或许数千人——我从未见过,他们的能力将与我识别出的那些人相当。毕竟,这项工作并非不可能。问题仅仅在于,绝大多数试图超越市场表现的经理人将会失败。向你募集资金的人成为那个表现优异的例外,这种概率也非常低。比尔·鲁安——一个真正出色的人,也是我在60年前就认定几乎肯定会长期带来优异投资回报的人——说得很好:“在投资管理领域,进步是从创新者到模仿者,再到蜂拥而至的无能者。”

原文

There are no doubt many hundreds of people — perhaps thousands — whom I have never met and whose abilities would equal those of the people I’ve identified. The job, after all, is not impossible. The problem simply is that the great majority of managers who attempt to over-perform will fail. The probability is also very high that the person soliciting your funds will not be the exception who does well. Bill Ruane — a truly wonderful human being and a man whom I identified 60 years ago as almost certain to deliver superior investment returns over the long haul — said it well: “In investment management, the progression is from the innovators to the imitators to the swarming incompetents.”

寻找值得支付其高薪的罕见高收费经理人的过程,进一步复杂化的一个事实是,某些投资专业人士,就像某些业余投资者一样,会在短期内运气好。如果每年年初有1,000名经理人对市场做出预测,那么至少有一位预测连续九年正确是很有可能的。当然,1,000只猴子同样可能产生一个看似全知的预言家。但确实存在一个区别:这只幸运的猴子不会发现有人排队等着投资给他。

原文

Further complicating the search for the rare high-fee manager who is worth his or her pay is the fact that some investment professionals, just as some amateurs, will be lucky over short periods. If 1,000 managers make a market prediction at the beginning of a year, it’s very likely that the calls of at least one will be correct for nine consecutive years. Of course, 1,000 monkeys would be just as likely to produce a seemingly all-wise prophet. But there would remain a difference: The lucky monkey would not find people standing in line to invest with him.

最后,有三个相互关联的现实导致投资成功滋生失败。首先,良好的记录迅速吸引大量资金。其次,巨额资金总是成为投资业绩的锚点:数百万美元很容易做到的事情,用数十亿美元来做就举步维艰了(呜呼!)。第三,大多数经理人仍会寻求新资金,因为出于他们个人的考量——即,他们管理的资金越多,收到的费用就越高。

原文

Finally, there are three connected realities that cause investing success to breed failure. First, a good record quickly attracts a torrent of money. Second, huge sums invariably act as an anchor on investment performance: What is easy with millions, struggles with billions (sob!). Third, most managers will nevertheless seek new money because of their personal equation — namely, the more funds they have under management, the more their fees.

这三点对我来说并非新鲜事:1966年1月,当我管理着4,400万美元时,我写信给我的有限合伙人:“我感到规模大幅增大更可能损害未来的结果,而不是帮助它们。这可能对我个人的结果不成立,但对你们的结果很可能成立。因此,……我不打算再接纳新的合伙人进入BPL。我已经通知苏茜,如果我们再有孩子,由她为他们找另一个合伙公司。”

原文

These three points are hardly new ground for me: In January 1966, when I was managing $44 million, I wrote my limited partners: “I feel substantially greater size is more likely to harm future results than to help them. This might not be true for my own personal results, but it is likely to be true for your results. Therefore, … I intend to admit no additional partners to BPL. I have notified Susie that if we have any more children, it is up to her to find some other partnership for them.”

归根结底:当数万亿美元由华尔街人士管理并收取高额费用时,通常是经理人获得超额利润,而非客户。无论是大型还是小型投资者,都应该坚持投资低成本的指数基金。

原文

The bottom line: When trillions of dollars are managed by Wall Streeters charging high fees, it will usually be the managers who reap outsized profits, not the clients. Both large and small investors should stick with low-cost index funds.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

如果有一天要树立一座雕像来纪念为美国投资者做出最大贡献的人,毫无争议的选择应该是杰克·博格尔。几十年来,杰克一直敦促投资者投资于超低成本的指数基金。在他的这场运动中,他只积累了通常流向那些向投资者承诺巨大回报却未提供任何——或者像我们的赌约一样,提供的更少 ——附加价值的经理人的财富中的极小一部分。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

If a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has done the most for American investors, the hands- down choice should be Jack Bogle. For decades, Jack has urged investors to invest in ultra-low-cost index funds. In his crusade, he amassed only a tiny percentage of the wealth that has typically flowed to managers who have promised their investors large rewards while delivering them nothing — or, as in our bet, less than nothing — of added value.

早年,杰克经常被投资管理行业嘲笑。然而今天,他可以满意地知道,他帮助数百万投资者实现了比他们本来能够赚取的远为丰厚的储蓄回报。他是他们和我的英雄。

原文

In his early years, Jack was frequently mocked by the investment-management industry. Today, however, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he helped millions of investors realize far better returns on their savings than they otherwise would have earned. He is a hero to them and to me.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

多年来,我经常被问及投资建议,在回答的过程中,我学到了很多关于人类行为的知识。我通常的建议是投资低成本的标普500指数基金。值得称赞的是,我那些财力有限的朋友通常会遵循我的建议。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Over the years, I’ve often been asked for investment advice, and in the process of answering I’ve learned a good deal about human behavior. My regular recommendation has been a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. To their credit, my friends who possess only modest means have usually followed my suggestion.

但我相信,当我向那些超级富有的个人、机构或养老基金提出同样的建议时,他们中没有一个人遵循过。相反,这些投资者礼貌地感谢我的想法,然后离开,去倾听高收费经理人的美妙歌声,或者,就许多机构而言,去寻找另一种被称为顾问的超级帮手。

原文

I believe, however, that none of the mega-rich individuals, institutions or pension funds has followed that same advice when I’ve given it to them. Instead, these investors politely thank me for my thoughts and depart to listen to the siren song of a high-fee manager or, in the case of many institutions, to seek out another breed of hyper-helper called a consultant.

然而,这位专业人士面临一个问题。你能想象一位投资顾问年复一年地告诉客户,继续增加对复制标普500指数的指数基金的投资吗?那将是职业自杀。然而,如果他们建议每隔一年左右进行小幅管理变动,巨额费用就会流向这些超级帮手。这种建议通常以晦涩难懂的行话提供,解释为什么流行的投资“风格”或当前的经济趋势使得这种转变是合适的。

原文

That professional, however, faces a problem. Can you imagine an investment consultant telling clients, year after year, to keep adding to an index fund replicating the S&P 500? That would be career suicide. Large fees flow to these hyper-helpers, however, if they recommend small managerial shifts every year or so. That advice is often delivered in esoteric gibberish that explains why fashionable investment “styles” or current economic trends make the shift appropriate.

富人习惯于认为,获得最好的食物、教育、娱乐、住房、整形手术、体育赛事门票等等,是他们命中注定的事。他们觉得,他们的钱应该为他们买到比大众所得更优越的东西。

原文

The wealthy are accustomed to feeling that it is their lot in life to get the best food, schooling, entertainment, housing, plastic surgery, sports ticket, you name it. Their money, they feel, should buy them something superior compared to what the masses receive.

在许多生活方面,财富确实可以买到一流的产品或服务。因此,金融“精英”——富裕个人、养老基金、大学捐赠基金等——很难温顺地购买一项同样适用于只投资几千美元的人们的金融产品或服务。即便相关产品——从预期回报来看——显然是最佳选择,这种富人的不情愿通常仍然盛行。我粗略估计,精英们对卓越投资建议的寻求,导致他们在过去十年中总共浪费了超过1000亿美元。算一下:即使是对几万亿美元收取1%的费用,加起来也是庞大的数字。当然,并非所有十年前投资于对冲基金的投资者都落后于标普回报。但我相信,我对总差距的估计是保守的。

原文

In many aspects of life, indeed, wealth does command top-grade products or services. For that reason, the financial “elites” — wealthy individuals, pension funds, college endowments and the like — have great trouble meekly signing up for a financial product or service that is available as well to people investing only a few thousand dollars. This reluctance of the rich normally prevails even though the product at issue is — on an expectancy basis — clearly the best choice. My calculation, admittedly very rough, is that the search by the elite for superior investment advice has caused it, in aggregate, to waste more than $100 billion over the past decade. Figure it out: Even a 1% fee on a few trillion dollars adds up. Of course, not every investor who put money in hedge funds ten years ago lagged S&P returns. But I believe my calculation of the aggregate shortfall is conservative.

大部分财务损失落到了公共雇员养老基金身上。许多这些基金严重资金不足,部分原因是它们遭受了双重打击:糟糕的投资表现伴随着巨额费用。由此产生的资产缺口,将在未来几十年内由当地纳税人来弥补。

原文

Much of the financial damage befell pension funds for public employees. Many of these funds are woefully underfunded, in part because they have suffered a double whammy: poor investment performance accompanied by huge fees. The resulting shortfalls in their assets will for decades have to be made up by local taxpayers.

人类行为不会改变。富裕的个人、养老基金、捐赠基金等将继续觉得他们应得到投资建议上的“额外”东西。那些巧妙迎合这种期望的顾问将变得非常富有。今年,神奇药水可能是对冲基金,明年是别的什么。这种承诺游行的可能结果,用一句格言来预测:“当一个有钱人遇到一个有经验的人时,有经验的人最终得到钱,有钱的人带着经验离开。”

原文

Human behavior won’t change. Wealthy individuals, pension funds, endowments and the like will continue to feel they deserve something “extra” in investment advice. Those advisors who cleverly play to this expectation will get very rich. This year the magic potion may be hedge funds, next year something else. The likely result from this parade of promises is predicted in an adage: “When a person with money meets a person with experience, the one with experience ends up with the money and the one with money leaves with experience.”

很久以前,我的一个姐夫霍默·罗杰斯是奥马哈牲畜围场的佣金代理。我问他,他是如何诱使农民或牧场主雇佣他,来处理他们将猪或牛卖给四大包装商(Swift、Cudahy、Wilson和Armour)的买家的。毕竟,猪就是猪,买家都是专家,对任何一头牲畜的价值都了如指掌。那么,我问霍默,一个销售代理怎么能比其他人得到更好的结果呢?

原文

Long ago, a brother-in-law of mine, Homer Rogers, was a commission agent working in the Omaha stockyards. I asked him how he induced a farmer or rancher to hire him to handle the sale of their hogs or cattle to the buyers from the big four packers (Swift, Cudahy, Wilson and Armour). After all, hogs were hogs and the buyers were experts who knew to the penny how much any animal was worth. How then, I asked Homer, could any sales agent get a better result than any other?

霍默同情地看了我一眼,说:“沃伦,重要的不是你怎么卖,而是你怎么说。”在牲畜围场奏效的方法,在华尔街继续奏效。

原文

Homer gave me a pitying look and said: “Warren, it’s not how you sell ‘em, it’s how you tell ‘em.” What worked in the stockyards continues to work in Wall Street.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

最后,让我向华尔街人士伸出橄榄枝,他们中有许多是我的好朋友。伯克希尔喜欢向为我们带来收购交易的投资银行支付费用——甚至是高昂的费用。此外,我们为内部两位投资经理的超常表现支付了可观的报酬——并且我们希望未来向他们支付更多。

原文

* * * * * * * * * * * *

And, finally, let me offer an olive branch to Wall Streeters, many of them good friends of mine. Berkshire love s to pay fees — even outrageous fees — to investment bankers who bring us acquisitions. Moreover, we have paid substantial sums for over-performance to our two in-house investment managers — and we hope to make even larger payments to them in the future.

借用圣经(以弗所书3:18),我知道当“费用”这个简单的四字母单词在华尔街被说出时,它所散发出的能量的高度、深度、长度和广度。而当这种能量为伯克希尔带来价值时,我会欣然开出大额支票。

原文

To get biblical (Ephesians 3:18), I know the height and the depth and the length and the breadth of the energy flowing from that simple four-letter word — fees — when it is spoken to Wall Street. And when that energy delivers value to Berkshire, I will cheerfully write a big check.

年会

去年,我们与雅虎合作,首次对年会进行了网络直播。感谢安迪·瑟沃和他的雅虎团队,这次直播在所有方面都取得了成功,实时观看的独立访客数达到110万,回放观看数达到1,150万(当然,其中很多是只对直播中某些片段感兴趣的观众点击的)。

原文

The Annual Meeting

Last year we partnered with Yahoo to air the first-ever webcast of our annual meeting. Thanks to Andy Serwer and his Yahoo crew, the production was a success in all respects, registering 1.1 million unique visits in real-time viewing and 11.5 million more in replays (many of those, to be sure, called up by viewers interested in only certain segments of the webcast).

伯克希尔因启动网络直播而收到的感谢信中,包含来自三个群体的众多留言:出行困难的老年人;认为前往奥马哈费用高昂的节俭人士;以及因宗教原因无法参加周六会议的人。

原文

Berkshire’s thank-you mail for initiating the webcast included many notes from three constituencies: the elderly who find travel difficult; the thrifty who find it expensive to travel to Omaha; and those who cannot attend a Saturday meeting for religious reasons.

网络直播使去年会议的现场出席人数降至约37,000人(我们无法得到精确数字),下降了约10%。尽管如此,伯克希尔的子公司以及奥马哈的酒店和餐厅都取得了巨大销售额。内布拉斯加家具城的销售额比2015年的记录增长了3%,奥马哈店一周的销售额达到了4,550万美元。

原文

The webcast cut attendance at last year’s meeting to about 37,000 people (we can’t get a precise count), which was down about 10%. Nevertheless, both Berkshire’s subsidiaries and Omaha hotels and restaurants racked up huge sales. Nebraska Furniture Mart’s sales broke their 2015 record volume by 3%, with the Omaha store recording one-week volume of $45.5 million.

我们在CenturyLink的伯克希尔参展商于周五中午至下午5点开放,吸引了12,000名寻找便宜货的股东。今年5月5日,我们将在周五的同一时间再次开放购物。带上钱来。

原文

Our Berkshire exhibitors at CenturyLink were open from noon until 5 p.m. on Friday and drew a crowd of 12,000 bargain-hunting shareholders. We will repeat those Friday shopping hours this year on May 5th . Bring money.

年会定于5月6日举行,并将再次由雅虎进行网络直播,网址为https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream。直播将于美国中部夏令时间上午9点开始。雅虎将在会议前和午休期间采访董事、经理、股东和名人。这些采访和会议将同步翻译成普通话。

原文

The annual meeting falls on May 6th and will again be webcast by Yahoo, whose web address is https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream. The webcast will go live at 9 a.m. Central Daylight Time. Yahoo will interview directors, managers, stockholders and celebrities before the meeting and during the lunch break. Both those interviews and meeting will be translated simultaneously into Mandarin.

对于亲临会议的人,CenturyLink的门将于周六早上7:00开放,以便在上午8:30的股东电影开始前购物。问答环节将于9

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