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标题:2018年致股东信
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股东:
伯克希尔在2018年按照公认会计准则(通常称为“GAAP”)盈利40亿美元。该数字的构成包括:248亿美元的运营收益、30亿美元的无形资产减值非现金损失(几乎全部来自我们对卡夫亨氏的股权投资)、28亿美元的已实现投资证券出售资本利得,以及因投资组合中未实现资本利得减少而产生的206亿美元亏损。
原文
Berkshire earned $4.0 billion in 2018 utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (commonly called “GAAP”). The components of that figure are $24.8 billion in operating earnings, a $3.0 billion non-cash loss from an impairment of intangible assets (arising almost entirely from our equity interest in Kraft Heinz), $2.8 billion in realized capital gains from the sale of investment securities and a $20.6 billion loss from a reduction in the amount of unrealized capital gains that existed in our investment holdings.
一项新的GAAP规则要求我们将最后一项纳入收益。正如我在2017年年报中所强调的,无论是伯克希尔的副董事长查理·芒格还是我,都不认为这条规则是明智的。相反,我们俩一直认为,在伯克希尔,这种按市值计价的变动会产生我所描述的“我们利润的剧烈且反复无常的波动”。
原文
A new GAAP rule requires us to include that last item in earnings. As I emphasized in the 2017 annual report, neither Berkshire’s Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, nor I believe that rule to be sensible. Rather, both of us have consistently thought that at Berkshire this mark-to-market change would produce what I described as “wild and capricious swings in our bottom line.”
这一预测的准确性可以从我们2018年的季度业绩中得到印证。在第一和第四季度,我们报告的GAAP亏损分别为11亿美元和254亿美元。在第二和第三季度,我们报告的利润分别为120亿美元和185亿美元。与这些剧烈波动形成鲜明对比的是,伯克希尔拥有的众多企业在所有季度都实现了持续且令人满意的运营收益。全年来看,这些收益比2016年176亿美元的高点高出41%。
原文
The accuracy of that prediction can be suggested by our quarterly results during 2018. In the first and fourth quarters, we reported GAAP losses of $1.1 billion and $25.4 billion respectively. In the second and third quarters, we reported profits of $12 billion and $18.5 billion. In complete contrast to these gyrations, the many businesses that Berkshire owns delivered consistent and satisfactory operating earnings in all quarters. For the year, those earnings exceeded their 2016 high of $17.6 billion by 41%.
我们季度GAAP收益的大幅波动将不可避免地持续下去。这是因为我们庞大的股权投资组合——在2018年底价值近1730亿美元——经常会经历单日20亿美元或更多的价格波动,而新规则规定所有这些波动都必须立即计入我们的利润。事实上,在第四季度这个股市高度波动的时期,我们经历了好几个“利润”或“亏损”超过40亿美元的交易日。
原文
Wide swings in our quarterly GAAP earnings will inevitably continue. That’s because our huge equity portfolio — valued at nearly $173 billion at the end of 2018 — will often experience one-day price fluctuations of $2 billion or more, all of which the new rule says must be dropped immediately to our bottom line. Indeed, in the fourth quarter, a period of high volatility in stock prices, we experienced several days with a “profit” or “loss” of more than $4 billion.
我们的建议是什么?关注运营收益,少关注各种形式的利得或亏损。我这样说丝毫没有削弱投资对伯克希尔的重要性。随着时间的推移,查理和我期望这些投资能带来可观的收益,尽管时机非常不规律。
原文
Our advice? Focus on operating earnings, paying little attention to gains or losses of any variety. My saying that in no way diminishes the importance of our investments to Berkshire. Over time, Charlie and I expect them to deliver substantial gains, albeit with highly irregular timing.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
长期阅读我们年报的读者会注意到我开启这封信的不同方式。近三十年来,开头的段落都重点介绍伯克希尔每股账面价值的百分比变化。现在是时候放弃这种做法了。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Long-time readers of our annual reports will have spotted the different way in which I opened this letter. For nearly three decades, the initial paragraph featured the percentage change in Berkshire’s per-share book value. It’s now time to abandon that practice.
事实上,伯克希尔账面价值的年度变化——它将在第2页作最后一次亮相——已经失去了它曾经拥有的相关性。三种情况导致了这一点。首先,伯克希尔已经逐渐从一个资产集中于可交易股票的公司,转变为一家主要价值存在于运营业务中的公司。查理和我预计这种重塑将以不规则的方式继续。其次,尽管我们的股权投资按市场价格估值,但会计规则要求我们的运营公司组合以远低于其当前价值的金额计入账面价值,这种错估在近年来越来越严重。第三,很可能——随着时间的推移——伯克希尔将成为其股票的重要回购方,这些交易将以高于账面价值但低于我们估算的内在价值的价格进行。这种回购的数学原理很简单:每一次交易都使每股内在价值上升,同时每股账面价值下降。这种组合导致账面价值记分卡越来越脱离经济现实。
原文
The fact is that the annual change in Berkshire’s book value — which makes its farewell appearance on page 2 — is a metric that has lost the relevance it once had. Three circumstances have made that so. First, Berkshire has gradually morphed from a company whose assets are concentrated in marketable stocks into one whose major value resides in operating businesses. Charlie and I expect that reshaping to continue in an irregular manner. Second, while our equity holdings are valued at market prices, accounting rules require our collection of operating companies to be included in book value at an amount far below their current value, a mismark that has grown in recent years. Third, it is likely that — over time — Berkshire will be a significant repurchaser of its shares, transactions that will take place at prices above book value but below our estimate of intrinsic value. The math of such purchases is simple: Each transaction makes per-share intrinsic value go up, while per-share book value goes down. That combination causes the book-value scorecard to become increasingly out of touch with economic reality.
在未来的财务结果报告中,我们预计将重点关注伯克希尔的股价。市场可能极其反复无常:只需看看第2页列出的54年历史。然而,随着时间的推移,伯克希尔的股价将提供衡量业务表现的最佳指标。
原文
In future tabulations of our financial results, we expect to focus on Berkshire’s market price. Markets can be extremely capricious: Just look at the 54-year history laid out on page 2. Over time, however, Berkshire’s stock price will provide the best measure of business performance.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
在继续之前,我想告诉你一些好消息——真正的好消息——它并未反映在我们的财务报表中。这涉及我们在2018年初进行的管理层变动,当时阿吉特·贾因被委以所有保险业务的责任,格雷格·阿贝尔被授权负责所有其他运营。这些举措早该进行了。伯克希尔现在比我独自监督运营时管理得更好。阿吉特和格雷格拥有罕见的才能,伯克希尔的血液流淌在他们的血管里。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Before moving on, I want to give you some good news — really good news — that is not reflected in our financial statements. It concerns the management changes we made in early 2018, when Ajit Jain was put in charge of all insurance activities and Greg Abel was given authority over all other operations. These moves were overdue. Berkshire is now far better managed than when I alone was supervising operations. Ajit and Greg have rare talents, and Berkshire blood flows through their veins.
现在让我们来看看你拥有什么。
关注森林——忘掉树木
评估伯克希尔的投资者有时会痴迷于我们众多且多样化业务的细节——可以说,是我们经济的“树木”。考虑到我们拥有从细枝到红杉的各种标本,这种分析可能会令人麻木。我们的一些树木已经生病,不太可能再存活十年。然而,其他许多树木注定会茁壮成长,愈发美丽。
原文
Now let’s take a look at what you own.
Focus on the Forest — Forget the Trees
Investors who evaluate Berkshire sometimes obsess on the details of our many and diverse businesses — our economic “trees,” so to speak. Analysis of that type can be mind-numbing, given that we own a vast array of specimens, ranging from twigs to redwoods. A few of our trees are diseased and unlikely to be around a decade from now. Many others, though, are destined to grow in size and beauty.
幸运的是,要粗略估算伯克希尔的业务内在价值,并不需要逐一评估每棵树。这是因为我们的森林包含五个重要的“树丛”,每个都可以合理地整体评估其价值。其中四个树丛是易于理解的差异化业务和金融资产集群。第五个——我们庞大且多元化的保险业务——以一种不那么明显的方式为伯克希尔带来巨大价值,我将在本信后面解释这一点。
原文
Fortunately, it’s not necessary to evaluate each tree individually to make a rough estimate of Berkshire’s intrinsic business value. That’s because our forest contains five “groves” of major importance, each of which can be appraised, with reasonable accuracy, in its entirety. Four of those groves are differentiated clusters of businesses and financial assets that are easy to understand. The fifth — our huge and diverse insurance operation — delivers great value to Berkshire in a less obvious manner, one I will explain later in this letter.
在更仔细地审视前四个树丛之前,让我提醒你我们在资本部署方面的首要目标:购买管理有方的企业,全部或部分,这些企业拥有有利且持久的经济特征。我们也需要以合理的价格进行这些购买。
原文
Before we look more closely at the first four groves, let me remind you of our prime goal in the deployment of your capital: to buy ably-managed businesses, in whole or part, that possess favorable and durable economic characteristics. We also need to make these purchases at sensible prices.
有时我们可以收购符合我们标准的公司的控股权。更常见的是,我们在公开交易的企业中找到我们寻求的属性,通常收购5%到10%的权益。我们这种针对大规模资本配置的双管齐下的方法在美国企业中很少见,并且有时会给我们带来重要优势。
原文
Sometimes we can buy control of companies that meet our tests. Far more often, we find the attributes we seek in publicly-traded businesses, in which we normally acquire a 5% to 10% interest. Our two-pronged approach to huge-scale capital allocation is rare in corporate America and, at times, gives us an important advantage.
近年来,我们应该遵循的明智路线是显而易见的:许多股票提供的价值远远超过我们通过整体收购企业所能获得的。这种差异导致我们去年购买了约430亿美元的可交易股票,而出售了仅190亿美元。查理和我相信我们投资的公司提供了卓越的价值,远远超过了并购交易中可获取的价值。
原文
In recent years, the sensible course for us to follow has been clear: Many stocks have offered far more for our money than we could obtain by purchasing businesses in their entirety. That disparity led us to buy about $43 billion of marketable equities last year, while selling only $19 billion. Charlie and I believe the companies in which we invested offered excellent value, far exceeding that available in takeover transactions.
尽管我们最近增加了可交易股票,但伯克希尔森林中最有价值的树丛仍然是我们控制的数十家非保险业务(通常100%拥有,从未低于80%)。这些子公司去年盈利168亿美元。此外,当我们说“盈利”时,我们指的是扣除所有所得税、利息支付、管理层薪酬(无论是现金还是股票形式的)、重组费用、折旧、摊销和总部管理费用之后剩余的部分。
原文
Despite our recent additions to marketable equities, the most valuable grove in Berkshire’s forest remains the many dozens of non-insurance businesses that Berkshire controls (usually with 100% ownership and never with less than 80%). Those subsidiaries earned $16.8 billion last year. When we say “earned,” moreover, we are describing what remains after all income taxes, interest payments, managerial compensation (whether cash or stock-based), restructuring expenses, depreciation, amortization and home-office overhead.
这种盈利方式与华尔街银行家和企业CEO们经常吹捧的相去甚远。他们的演示文稿中常常出现“调整后EBITDA”,这是一种将“盈利”重新定义为排除各种非常真实成本的指标。
原文
That brand of earnings is a far cry from that frequently touted by Wall Street bankers and corporate CEOs. Too often, their presentations feature “adjusted EBITDA,” a measure that redefines “earnings” to exclude a variety of all-too-real costs.
例如,管理层有时声称他们公司的股票薪酬不应算作费用。(那还能是什么——来自股东的礼物?)还有重组费用?嗯,也许去年的那次精确重组不会再发生。但各种形式的重组在商业中很常见——伯克希尔已经走过这条路数十次了,我们的股东一直承担着这样做的成本。
原文
For example, managements sometimes assert that their company’s stock-based compensation shouldn’t be counted as an expense. (What else could it be — a gift from shareholders?) And restructuring expenses? Well, maybe last year’s exact rearrangement won’t recur. But restructurings of one sort or another are common in business — Berkshire has gone down that road dozens of times, and our shareholders have always borne the costs of doing so.
亚伯拉罕·林肯曾提出一个问题:“如果你把狗的尾巴称为腿,它有多少条腿?”然后他自己回答了这个问题:“四条,因为把尾巴称为腿并不能使它成为腿。”林肯在华尔街会感到孤独。
原文
Abraham Lincoln once posed the question: “If you call a dog’s tail a leg, how many legs does it have?” and then answered his own query: “Four, because calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one.” Abe would have felt lonely on Wall Street.
查理和我确实认为我们14亿美元的收购相关摊销费用(详见K-84页)并非真正的经济成本。在我们评估私营企业和可交易股票时,我们会将这些摊销“成本”加回GAAP收益中。
原文
Charlie and I do contend that our acquisition-related amortization expenses of $1.4 billion (detailed on page K-84) are not a true economic cost. We add back such amortization “costs” to GAAP earnings when we are evaluating both private businesses and marketable stocks.
相比之下,伯克希尔84亿美元的折旧费用低估了我们的真实经济成本。事实上,为了在众多业务中保持竞争力,我们每年需要超过这个数额的支出。除了这些“维护性”资本支出外,我们还花费大量资金追求增长。总体而言,伯克希尔去年在厂房、设备和其他固定资产上投资了创纪录的145亿美元,其中89%投资于美国。
原文
In contrast, Berkshire’s $8.4 billion depreciation charge understates our true economic cost. In fact, we need to spend more than this sum annually to simply remain competitive in our many operations. Beyond those “maintenance” capital expenditures, we spend large sums in pursuit of growth. Overall, Berkshire invested a record $14.5 billion last year in plant, equipment and other fixed assets, with 89% of that spent in America.
伯克希尔价值第二高的树丛是其股票投资组合,通常涉及一家非常大公司5%到10%的所有权。如前所述,我们的股权投资在年底价值近1730亿美元,远高于其成本。如果该投资组合按年底估值出售,则需就收益缴纳约147亿美元的联邦所得税。很可能,我们将长期持有这些股票中的大部分。然而,最终,收益会在出售时按当时的税率产生税款。
原文
Berkshire’s runner-up grove by value is its collection of equities, typically involving a 5% to 10% ownership position in a very large company. As noted earlier, our equity investments were worth nearly $173 billion at yearend, an amount far above their cost. If the portfolio had been sold at its yearend valuation, federal income tax of about $14.7 billion would have been payable on the gain. In all likelihood, we will hold most of these stocks for a long time. Eventually, however, gains generate taxes at whatever rate prevails at the time of sale.
我们的被投资公司去年向我们支付了38亿美元的股息,这一数字将在2019年增加。然而,远比股息更重要的是这些公司每年留存的大量收益。作为指标,请考虑仅涵盖我们五大持股的数据。
| 公司 | 年底持股比例 | 伯克希尔应占股息(百万美元)(1) | 伯克希尔应占留存收益(百万美元)(2) |
| 美国运通 | 17.9% | 237 | 997 |
| 苹果公司 | 5.4% | 745 | 2,502 |
| 美国银行 | 9.5% | 551 | 2,096 |
| 可口可乐 | 9.4% | 624 | (21) |
| 富国银行 | 9.8% | 809 | 1,263 |
| 总计 | 2,966 | 6,837 |
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基于当前年化股息率。
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基于2018年收益减去已支付的普通股和优先股股息。
GAAP——它决定了我们报告的收益——不允许我们将被投资公司的留存收益计入我们的财务账目。但这些收益对我们有巨大价值:多年来,我们的被投资公司(作为一个整体)留存的收益,最终为伯克希尔带来了超过这些公司为我们再投资的每一美元的资本利得。
原文
Our investees paid us dividends of $3.8 billion last year, a sum that will increase in 2019. Far more important than the dividends, though, are the huge earnings that are annually retained by these companies. Consider, as an indicator, these figures that cover only our five largest holdings.
| Company | Yearend Ownership | Berkshire’s Share in $ millions of Dividends(1) | Berkshire’s Share in $ millions of Retained Earnings(2) |
| American Express | 17.9% | $ 237 | $ 997 |
| Apple | 5.4% | 745 | 2,502 |
| Bank of America | 9.5% | 551 | 2,096 |
| Coca-Cola | 9.4% | 624 | (21) |
| Wells Fargo | 9.8% | 809 | 1,263 |
| Total | $2,966 | $6,837 |
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Based on current annual rate.
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Based on 2018 earnings minus common and preferred dividends paid.
GAAP — which dictates the earnings we report — does not allow us to include the retained earnings of investees in our financial accounts. But those earnings are of enormous value to us: Over the years, earnings retained by our investees (viewed as a group) have eventually delivered capital gains to Berkshire that totaled more than one dollar for each dollar these companies reinvested for us.
我们所有的主要持股都享有良好的经济效益,并且大多数公司使用部分留存收益回购其股票。我们非常喜欢这一点:如果查理和我认为被投资公司的股票被低估,当管理层使用部分收益来增加伯克希尔的持股比例时,我们会感到高兴。
原文
All of our major holdings enjoy excellent economics, and most use a portion of their retained earnings to repurchase their shares. We very much like that: If Charlie and I think an investee’s stock is underpriced, we rejoice when management employs some of its earnings to increase Berkshire’s ownership percentage.
以下是上表中的一个例子:伯克希尔持有的美国运通股票在过去八年中没有变化。与此同时,由于公司进行的回购,我们的持股比例从12.6%增加到17.9%。去年,美国运通69亿美元收益中伯克希尔应占部分为12亿美元,约占我们为公司持股所支付13亿美元的96%。当收益增加而流通股减少时,所有者——随着时间的推移——通常会表现良好。
原文
Here’s one example drawn from the table above: Berkshire’s holdings of American Express have remained unchanged over the past eight years. Meanwhile, our ownership increased from 12.6% to 17.9% because of repurchases made by the company. Last year, Berkshire’s portion of the $6.9 billion earned by American Express was $1.2 billion, about 96% of the $1.3 billion we paid for our stake in the company. When earnings increase and shares outstanding decrease, owners — over time — usually do well.
伯克希尔业务所有权的第三类是一组我们与他人共同控制的四家公司。我们在这类业务中的税后运营收益份额——卡夫亨氏的26.7%,Berkadia和德克萨斯输电公司各50%,Pilot Flying J的38.6%——在2018年总计约13亿美元。
原文
A third category of Berkshire’s business ownership is a quartet of companies in which we share control with other parties. Our portion of the after-tax operating earnings of these businesses — 26.7% of Kraft Heinz, 50% of Berkadia and Electric Transmission Texas, and 38.6% of Pilot Flying J — totaled about $1.3 billion in 2018.
在我们的第四树丛中,伯克希尔在年底持有1120亿美元的美国国库券和其他现金等价物,以及另外200亿美元的各类固定收益工具。我们将这部分资金的一部分视为不可动用,承诺始终持有至少200亿美元的现金等价物以防范外部灾难。我们还承诺避免任何可能威胁到维持这一缓冲的活动。
原文
In our fourth grove, Berkshire held $112 billion at yearend in U.S. Treasury bills and other cash equivalents, and another $20 billion in miscellaneous fixed-income instruments. We consider a portion of that stash to be untouchable, having pledged to always hold at least $20 billion in cash equivalents to guard against external calamities. We have also promised to avoid any activities that could threaten our maintaining that buffer.
伯克希尔将永远是金融堡垒。在管理中,我会犯下昂贵的错误,也会错过许多机会,其中一些本应对我显而易见。有时,我们的股票会随着投资者逃离股市而暴跌。但我绝不会冒险让自己陷入现金短缺的境地。
原文
Berkshire will forever remain a financial fortress. In managing, I will make expensive mistakes of commission and will also miss many opportunities, some of which should have been obvious to me. At times, our stock will tumble as investors flee from equities. But I will never risk getting caught short of cash.
在未来几年,我们希望将大部分过剩流动性转移到伯克希尔将永久拥有的业务中。然而,这方面的近期前景并不乐观:对于拥有良好长期前景的企业,价格高得离谱。
原文
In the years ahead, we hope to move much of our excess liquidity into businesses that Berkshire will permanently own. The immediate prospects for that, however, are not good: Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects.
这一令人失望的现实意味着2019年我们很可能会再次扩大我们的可交易股票持有量。尽管如此,我们仍然希望进行大象级别的收购。即使在我和查理的88岁和95岁高龄——我是年轻的那个——这种前景仍然让我的心跳和查理的心跳加速。(仅仅是写到大收购的可能性就让我的脉搏飙升。)
原文
That disappointing reality means that 2019 will likely see us again expanding our holdings of marketable equities. We continue, nevertheless, to hope for an elephant-sized acquisition. Even at our ages of 88 and 95 — I’m the young one — that prospect is what causes my heart and Charlie’s to beat faster. (Just writing about the possibility of a huge purchase has caused my pulse rate to soar.)
我预期会有更多股票购买,这并非市场预测。查理和我对下周或明年股市的表现一无所知。这种预测从来不是我们活动的一部分。相反,我们的思考集中于计算一家有吸引力企业的部分股权是否比其市场价格价值更高。
原文
My expectation of more stock purchases is not a market call. Charlie and I have no idea as to how stocks will behave next week or next year. Predictions of that sort have never been a part of our activities. Our thinking, rather, is focused on calculating whether a portion of an attractive business is worth more than its market price.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
我相信伯克希尔的内在价值可以通过加总我们四个资产丰富的树丛的价值,然后减去可交易证券出售时最终应缴纳的适当税额来近似估算。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
I believe Berkshire’s intrinsic value can be approximated by summing the values of our four asset-laden groves and then subtracting an appropriate amount for taxes eventually payable on the sale of marketable securities.
你可能会问,是否也应该为伯克希尔出售某些全资拥有的业务时将产生的主要税收成本预留准备金?忘掉这个想法:即使出售无需缴税,出售我们任何出色的企业也是愚蠢的。真正的好企业极难找到。出售你幸运拥有的任何一家都毫无意义。
原文
You may ask whether an allowance should not also be made for the major tax costs Berkshire would incur if we were to sell certain of our wholly-owned businesses. Forget that thought: It would be foolish for us to sell any of our wonderful companies even if no tax would be payable on its sale. Truly good businesses are exceptionally hard to find. Selling any you are lucky enough to own makes no sense at all.
我们所有债务的利息成本已在计算伯克希尔非保险业务的收益时作为费用扣除。除此之外,我们对前四个树丛的大部分所有权是由伯克希尔第五个树丛——一系列卓越的保险公司——产生的资金提供资金的。我们称这些资金为“浮存金”,这是一种我们预计随着时间的推移将是零成本——甚至可能更好——的融资来源。我们将在本信后面解释浮存金的特点。
原文
The interest cost on all of our debt has been deducted as an expense in calculating the earnings at Berkshire’s non-insurance businesses. Beyond that, much of our ownership of the first four groves is financed by funds generated from Berkshire’s fifth grove — a collection of exceptional insurance companies. We call those funds “float,” a source of financing that we expect to be cost-free — or maybe even better than that — over time. We will explain the characteristics of float later in this letter.
最后,一个关键且持久的重要观点:伯克希尔的价值因我们将五个树丛整合为一个实体而最大化。这种安排使我们能够无缝且客观地分配大量资本,消除企业风险,避免僵化,以极低的成本为资产融资,偶尔利用税收效率,并最小化管理费用。
原文
Finally, a point of key and lasting importance: Berkshire’s value is maximized by our having assembled the five groves into a single entity. This arrangement allows us to seamlessly and objectively allocate major amounts of capital, eliminate enterprise risk, avoid insularity, fund assets at exceptionally low cost, occasionally take advantage of tax efficiencies, and minimize overhead.
在伯克希尔,整体大于——远大于——部分之和。
原文
At Berkshire, the whole is greater — considerably greater — than the sum of the parts.
回购与报告
早些时候我提到伯克希尔将不时回购自己的股票。假设我们以低于伯克希尔内在价值的价格购买——这当然会是我们的意图——回购将使离开公司的股东和留下的股东都受益。
原文
Repurchases and Reporting
Earlier I mentioned that Berkshire will from time to time be repurchasing its own stock. Assuming that we buy at a discount to Berkshire’s intrinsic value — which certainly will be our intention — repurchases will benefit both those shareholders leaving the company and those who stay.
诚然,回购对即将离开的人带来的好处非常轻微。这是因为我们谨慎的购买将最大限度地减少对伯克希尔股价的影响。尽管如此,对于卖方来说,市场上多一个买家还是有一些好处的。
原文
True, the upside from repurchases is very slight for those who are leaving. That’s because careful buying by us will minimize any impact on Berkshire’s stock price. Nevertheless, there is some benefit to sellers in having an extra buyer in the market.
对于继续持有的股东,优势显而易见:如果市场对离开的合伙人的权益定价为,比方说,每美元价值90美分,那么每次公司回购,继续持有的股东就会获得每股内在价值的增加。显然,回购应对价格敏感:盲目购买被高估的股票是价值破坏性的,这一事实被许多推销成性或永远乐观的CEO所忽视。
原文
For continuing shareholders, the advantage is obvious: If the market prices a departing partner’s interest at, say, 90¢ on the dollar, continuing shareholders reap an increase in per-share intrinsic value with every repurchase by the company. Obviously, repurchases should be price-sensitive: Blindly buying an overpriced stock is value- destructive, a fact lost on many promotional or ever-optimistic CEOs.
当一家公司表示计划回购时,至关重要的是所有股东合伙人必须获得他们所需的信息,以便对价值做出明智的估计。提供这些信息正是查理和我在本报告中试图做的。我们不希望合伙人因为被误导或信息不足而将股票卖回给公司。
原文
When a company says that it contemplates repurchases, it’s vital that all shareholder-partners be given the information they need to make an intelligent estimate of value. Providing that information is what Charlie and I try to do in this report. We do not want a partner to sell shares back to the company because he or she has been misled or inadequately informed.
然而,一些卖方可能不同意我们对价值的计算,另一些可能找到了他们认为比伯克希尔股票更有吸引力的投资。后一组中的一些人将是正确的:毫无疑问,有许多股票将带来远高于我们的收益。
原文
Some sellers, however, may disagree with our calculation of value and others may have found investments that they consider more attractive than Berkshire shares. Some of that second group will be right: There are unquestionably many stocks that will deliver far greater gains than ours.
此外,某些股东将简单地决定,是时候让他们或他们的家人成为净消费者,而不是继续积累资本。查理和我目前对加入那个群体没有兴趣。也许我们会在晚年成为大手笔的消费者。
原文
In addition, certain shareholders will simply decide it’s time for them or their families to become net consumers rather than continuing to build capital. Charlie and I have no current interest in joining that group. Perhaps we will become big spenders in our old age.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
54年来,伯克希尔的决策一直是从留下的股东的角度出发,而不是离开的股东。因此,查理和我从未关注当前季度的业绩。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
For 54 years our managerial decisions at Berkshire have been made from the viewpoint of the shareholders who are staying, not those who are leaving. Consequently, Charlie and I have never focused on current-quarter results.
事实上,伯克希尔可能是财富500强中唯一不准备月度收益报告或资产负债表的公司。当然,我定期查看大多数子公司的月度财务报告。但查理和我只在季度基础上了解伯克希尔的整体收益和财务状况。
原文
Berkshire, in fact, may be the only company in the Fortune 500 that does not prepare monthly earnings reports or balance sheets. I, of course, regularly view the monthly financial reports of most subsidiaries. But Charlie and I learn of Berkshire’s overall earnings and financial position only on a quarterly basis.
此外,伯克希尔没有公司范围内的预算(尽管我们的许多子公司发现预算有用)。缺乏这种工具意味着母公司从未有过一个季度“数字”需要实现。回避使用这个目标向我们的许多经理传递了一个重要信息,强化了我们珍视的文化。
原文
Furthermore, Berkshire has no company-wide budget (though many of our subsidiaries find one useful). Our lack of such an instrument means that the parent company has never had a quarterly “number” to hit. Shunning the use of this bogey sends an important message to our many managers, reinforcing the culture we prize.
多年来,查理和我目睹了各种不良的公司行为,无论是会计还是运营方面的,都是由管理层希望满足华尔街预期所引发的。从“无害”的小小造假开始,为了不辜负“华尔街”——例如,在季度末压货,对不断上升的保险损失视而不见,或动用“饼干罐”准备金——可能成为走向全面欺诈的第一步。仅仅“这一次”玩弄数字可能是CEO的意图;但这很少是最终结果。如果老板可以稍微作弊,下属也很容易为自己的类似行为找到理由。
原文
Over the years, Charlie and I have seen all sorts of bad corporate behavior, both accounting and operational, induced by the desire of management to meet Wall Street expectations. What starts as an “innocent” fudge in order to not disappoint “the Street” — say, trade-loading at quarter-end, turning a blind eye to rising insurance losses, or drawing down a “cookie-jar” reserve — can become the first step toward full-fledged fraud. Playing with the numbers “just this once” may well be the CEO’s intent; it’s seldom the end result. And if it’s okay for the boss to cheat a little, it’s easy for subordinates to rationalize similar behavior.
在伯克希尔,我们的听众既不是分析师也不是评论员:查理和我为我们的股东合伙人工作。流向我们的数字将是我们传递给你们的数字。
原文
At Berkshire, our audience is neither analysts nor commentators: Charlie and I are working for our shareholder-partners. The numbers that flow up to us will be the ones we send on to you.
非保险业务——从棒棒糖到机车
现在让我们进一步看看伯克希尔最有价值的树丛——我们的非保险业务集合——记住我们不想不必要地将可能有用的信息交给我们的竞争对手。有关各个运营业务的更多详细信息,请参见K-5至K-22页和K-40至K-51页。
原文
Non-Insurance Operations — From Lollipops to Locomotives
Let’s now look further at Berkshire’s most valuable grove — our collection of non-insurance businesses — keeping in mind that we do not wish to unnecessarily hand our competitors information that might be useful to them. Additional details about individual operations can be found on pages K-5 — K-22 and pages K-40 — K-51.
从整体来看,这些业务在2018年的税前收入为208亿美元,比2017年增长24%。我们在2018年进行的收购只带来了微不足道的增长。
原文
Viewed as a group, these businesses earned pre-tax income in 2018 of $20.8 billion, a 24% increase over 2017. Acquisitions we made in 2018 delivered only a trivial amount of that gain.
在这次讨论中,我将坚持使用税前数字。但2018年这些业务的税后收益增长远大于——高达47%——这在很大程度上要归功于当年年初生效的企业税率下调。让我们看看为什么影响如此巨大。
原文
I will stick with pre-tax figures in this discussion. But our after-tax gain in 2018 from these businesses was far greater — 47*%* — thanks in large part to the cut in the corporate tax rate that became effective at the beginning of that year. Let’s look at why the impact was so dramatic.
从一个经济现实开始:无论喜欢与否,美国政府“拥有”伯克希尔收益的一部分,其规模由国会决定。实际上,我们国家的财政部持有我们的一种特殊类别的股票——称这些持股为AA股——它从伯克希尔获得大量“股息”(即税款)。2017年,就像之前的许多年份一样,企业税率为35%,这意味着财政部凭借其AA股表现得非常好。事实上,财政部的“股票”在1965年我们接管时没有任何收益,后来演变成每年向联邦政府输送数十亿美元的持股。
原文
Begin with an economic reality: Like it or not, the U.S. Government “owns” an interest in Berkshire’s earnings of a size determined by Congress. In effect, our country’s Treasury Department holds a special class of our stock — call this holding the AA shares — that receives large “dividends” (that is, tax payments) from Berkshire. In 2017, as in many years before, the corporate tax rate was 35%, which meant that the Treasury was doing very well with its AA shares. Indeed, the Treasury’s “stock,” which was paying nothing when we took over in 1965, had evolved into a holding that delivered billions of dollars annually to the federal government.
然而,去年,当企业税率降至21%时,政府“所有权”的40%(14/35ths)被无偿返还给伯克希尔。因此,我们的“A”和“B”股股东可归属于他们的股份的收益得到了大幅提升。
原文
Last year, however, 40% of the government’s “ownership” (14/35ths) was returned to Berkshire — free of charge — when the corporate tax rate was reduced to 21%. Consequently, our “A” and “B” shareholders received a major boost in the earnings attributable to their shares.
这一事件实质性地增加了你和我拥有的伯克希尔股票的内在价值。而且,同样的动态还增强了伯克希尔持有的几乎所有股票的内在价值。
原文
This happening materially increased the intrinsic value of the Berkshire shares you and I own. The same dynamic, moreover, enhanced the intrinsic value of almost all of the stocks Berkshire holds.
这些是头条新闻。但还有其他因素需要考虑,它们削弱了我们的收益。例如,我们大型公用事业运营获得的税收优惠会转移给其客户。同时,适用于我们从国内公司获得的大量股息的税率变化不大,约为13%。(这种较低的税率长期以来是合理的,因为我们的被投资公司已经为其支付给我们的收益缴纳了税款。)总体而言,然而,新法律使我们的业务和我们持有的股票大大增值了。
原文
Those are the headlines. But there are other factors to consider that tempered our gain. For example, the tax benefits garnered by our large utility operation get passed along to its customers. Meanwhile, the tax rate applicable to the substantial dividends we receive from domestic corporations is little changed at about 13%. (This lower rate has long been logical because our investees have already paid tax on the earnings that they pay to us.) Overall, however, the new law made our businesses and the stocks we own considerably more valuable.
这引出了我们回到非保险业务的业绩表现。在这个树丛中,我们的两棵高耸的红杉是BNSF和伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司(持股90.9%)。它们去年合计税前收入93亿美元,比2017年增长6%。你可以在K-5至K-10页和K-40至K-45页了解更多关于这些业务的信息。
原文
Which suggests that we return to the performance of our non-insurance businesses. Our two towering redwoods in this grove are BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (90.9% owned). Combined, they earned $9.3 billion before tax last year, up 6% from 2017. You can read more about these businesses on pages K-5 — K-10 and pages K-40 — K-45.
按收益排名的接下来五家非保险子公司(此处按字母顺序列出):克莱顿家园、国际金属加工、路博润、马蒙和精密铸件,2018年合计税前收入为64亿美元,高于2017年的55亿美元。
原文
Our next five non-insurance subsidiaries, as ranked by earnings (but presented here alphabetically), Clayton Homes, International Metalworking, Lubrizol, Marmon and Precision Castparts, had aggregate pre-tax income in 2018 of $6.4 billion, up from the $5.5 billion these companies earned in 2017.
接下来五家,按相同方式排名和列出(Forest River、Johns Manville、MiTek、Shaw和TTI),去年税前收入为24亿美元,高于2017年的21亿美元。
原文
The next five, similarly ranked and listed (Forest River, Johns Manville, MiTek, Shaw and TTI) earned $2.4 billion pre-tax last year, up from $2.1 billion in 2017.
伯克希尔拥有的其余非保险业务——而且有很多——2018年税前收入为36亿美元,而2017年为33亿美元。
原文
The remaining non-insurance businesses that Berkshire owns — and there are many — had pre-tax income of $3.6 billion in 2018 vs. $3.3 billion in 2017.
保险、“浮存金”以及伯克希尔的资金来源
我们的财产/意外伤害保险业务——我们的第五个树丛——自1967年以来一直是推动伯克希尔增长的引擎,那一年我们以860万美元收购了国民 indemnity 及其姊妹公司国家火与海运保险公司。如今,按净资产衡量,国民 indemnity 是世界上最大的财产/意外伤害保险公司。
原文
Insurance, “Float,” and the Funding of Berkshire
Our property/casualty (“P/C”) insurance business — our fifth grove — has been the engine propelling Berkshire’s growth since 1967, the year we acquired National Indemnity and its sister company, National Fire & Marine, for $8.6 million. Today, National Indemnity is the largest property/casualty company in the world as measured by net worth.
我们被财产/意外伤害保险业务吸引的原因之一是该行业的商业模式:财产/意外伤害保险公司预先收取保费,日后支付赔款。在极端情况下,例如因石棉暴露或严重工作场所事故引起的索赔,支付可能会延续数十年。
原文
One reason we were attracted to the P/C business was the industry’s business model: P/C insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as claims arising from exposure to asbestos, or severe workplace accidents, payments can stretch over many decades.
这种先收款、后付款的模式使得财产/意外伤害保险公司持有大量资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——这些资金最终将支付给他人。与此同时,保险公司可以利用这些浮存金为自己谋利。尽管个别保单和索赔来来去去,但保险公司持有的浮存金金额通常相对于保费收入保持相当稳定。因此,随着我们业务的增长,我们的浮存金也在增长。而它如何增长,如下表所示:
| 年份 | 浮存金(百万美元)* |
| 1970 | 39 |
| 1980 | 237 |
| 1990 | 1,632 |
| 2000 | 27,871 |
| 2010 | 65,832 |
| 2018 | 122,732 |
原文
This collect-now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums — money we call “float” — that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their own benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how it has grown, as the following table shows:
| Year | Float (in millions)* |
| 1970 | $ 39 |
| 1980 | 237 |
| 1990 | 1,632 |
| 2000 | 27,871 |
| 2010 | 65,832 |
| 2018 | 122,732 |
我们可能会在某个时候经历浮存金的下降。如果是这样,下降将非常缓慢——最多每年不超过3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了我们永远不会面临对我们的现金资源具有重要意义的即时或近期支付要求。这种结构是经过设计的,是我们保险公司无与伦比的财务实力的关键组成部分。这种实力永远不会受到损害。
原文
We may in time experience a decline in float. If so, the decline will be very gradual — at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate or near- term demands for sums that are of significance to our cash resources. That structure is by design and is a key component in the unequaled financial strength of our insurance companies. That strength will never be compromised.
如果我们的保费超过总费用和最终损失,我们的保险业务就会产生承保利润,从而增加浮存金带来的投资收益。当获得这样的利润时,我们享受到免费资金的使用权——而且更棒的是,持有这些资金还能获得报酬。
原文
If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, our insurance operation registers an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income the float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money — and, better yet, get paid for holding it.
不幸的是,所有保险公司都希望实现这一理想结果,这引发了激烈的竞争,如此激烈以至于有时导致整个财产/意外伤害保险行业出现重大的承保亏损。这种亏损,实际上,是该行业为持有其浮存金所付出的代价。竞争动态几乎可以保证,尽管所有公司都享有浮存金收入,但保险业将继续其相对于美国其他企业有形净资产回报率低下的惨淡记录。
原文
Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous indeed that it sometimes causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss . That loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Competitive dynamics almost guarantee that the insurance industry, despite the float income all its companies enjoy, will continue its dismal record of earning subnormal returns on tangible net worth as compared to other American businesses.
尽管如此,我喜欢我们自己的前景。伯克希尔无与伦比的财务实力使我们在投资浮存金方面拥有比一般财产/意外伤害保险公司大得多的灵活性。我们可用的众多替代方案始终是一个优势,偶尔会提供重大机会。当其他保险公司受到限制时,我们的选择范围会扩大。
原文
Nevertheless, I like our own prospects. Berkshire’s unrivaled financial strength allows us far more flexibility in investing our float than that generally available to P/C companies. The many alternatives available to us are always an advantage and occasionally offer major opportunities. When other insurers are constrained, our choices expand.
此外,我们的财产/意外伤害保险公司拥有出色的承保记录。伯克希尔在过去16年中有15年实现了承保利润,唯一的例外是2017年,当时我们的税前亏损为32亿美元。在整个16年期间,我们的税前收益总计270亿美元,其中2018年录得20亿美元。
原文
Moreover, our P/C companies have an excellent underwriting record. Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 15 of the past 16 years, the exception being 2017, when our pre-tax loss was $3.2 billion. For the entire 16-year span, our pre-tax gain totaled $27 billion, of which $2 billion was recorded in 2018.
这一记录并非偶然:严格的风险评估是我们保险经理们每日关注的焦点,他们知道浮存金的好处可能会被糟糕的承保结果所淹没。所有保险公司都口头宣传这一信息。但在伯克希尔,这是一项宗教信条,旧约风格式的。
原文
That record is no accident: Disciplined risk evaluation is the daily focus of our insurance managers, who know that the benefits of float can be drowned by poor underwriting results. All insurers give that message lip service. At Berkshire it is a religion, Old Testament style.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
在大多数情况下,企业的资金来源有两个——债务和股权。在伯克希尔,我们还有另外两根箭可以讨论,但让我们先讨论传统的组成部分。
原文
* * * * * * * * * * * *
In most cases, the funding of a business comes from two sources — debt and equity. At Berkshire, we have two additional arrows in the quiver to talk about, but let’s first address the conventional components.
我们谨慎使用债务。应当指出,许多管理者会不同意这一政策,他们认为大量债务会提高股权所有者的回报。而这些更具冒险精神的CEO在大部分时间里都是正确的。
原文
We use debt sparingly. Many managers, it should be noted, will disagree with this policy, arguing that significant debt juices the returns for equity owners. And these more venturesome CEOs will be right most of the time.
然而,在罕见且不可预测的时期,信贷会消失,债务会变得致命。一种俄罗斯轮盘赌的等式——通常赢,偶尔死——对于某个获得公司上涨收益但无需分担下跌损失的人来说,可能具有财务意义。但这对伯克希尔来说将是疯狂的。理性的人不会拿他们拥有且需要的去冒险,去换取他们没有且不需要的。
原文
At rare and unpredictable intervals, however, credit vanishes and debt becomes financially fatal. A Russian- roulette equation — usually win, occasionally die — may make financial sense for someone who gets a piece of a company’s upside but does not share in its downside. But that strategy would be madness for Berkshire. Rational people don’t risk what they have and need for what they don’t have and don’t need.
你在我们合并资产负债表上看到的大部分债务——见K-65页——存在于我们的铁路和能源子公司,这两家都是资产密集型公司。在经济衰退期间,这些业务的现金产生仍然充足。它们使用的债务既适合它们的运营,也不由伯克希尔担保。
原文
Most of the debt you see on our consolidated balance sheet — see page K-65 — resides at our railroad and energy subsidiaries, both of them asset-heavy companies. During recessions, the cash generation of these businesses remains bountiful. The debt they use is both appropriate for their operations and not guaranteed by Berkshire.
我们的股本水平则是另一回事:伯克希尔3490亿美元的股本在美国企业中是无与伦比的。通过长期保留所有收益,让复利发挥其魔力,我们积累了资金,使我们能够购买和开发前面描述的宝贵树丛。如果我们当初遵循100%的分红政策,我们可能仍然在使用1965财年开始时的2200万美元的资金工作。
原文
Our level of equity capital is a different story: Berkshire’s $349 billion is unmatched in corporate America. By retaining all earnings for a very long time, and allowing compound interest to work its magic, we have amassed funds that have enabled us to purchase and develop the valuable groves earlier described. Had we instead followed a 100% payout policy, we would still be working with the $22 million with which we began fiscal 1965.
除了使用债务和股权,伯克希尔还从两种不太常见的公司资金来源中获益匪浅。较大的是我描述过的浮存金。到目前为止,这些资金,尽管在我们的资产负债表上被记录为一笔巨大的净负债,但对我们的效用已经超过了等量的股本。这是因为它们通常伴随着承保利润。实际上,在大多数年份,我们因持有和使用他人的钱而获得报酬。
原文
Beyond using debt and equity, Berkshire has benefitted in a major way from two less-common sources of corporate funding. The larger is the float I have described. So far, those funds, though they are recorded as a huge net liability on our balance sheet, have been of more utility to us than an equivalent amount of equity. That’s because they have usually been accompanied by underwriting earnings. In effect, we have been paid in most years for holding and using other people’s money.
正如我以前经常做的那样,我将强调这种愉快的结果远非确定无疑:评估保险风险的错误可能非常巨大,并且可能需要多年才能显现。(想想石棉)。一场将使飓风卡特里娜和迈克尔相形见绌的重大灾难将会发生——也许是明天,也许是几十年后。“大事件”可能来自传统来源,如飓风或地震,也可能是完全出乎意料的事情,比如具有超出任何保险公司目前考虑范围的破坏性后果的网络攻击。当这样的特大灾难来袭时,我们将承担我们的损失份额,而且损失会很大——非常大。然而,与许多其他保险公司不同,我们第二天就会寻求增加业务。
原文
As I have often done before, I will emphasize that this happy outcome is far from a sure thing: Mistakes in assessing insurance risks can be huge and can take many years to surface. (Think asbestos.) A major catastrophe that will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael will occur — perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now. “The Big One” may come from a traditional source, such as a hurricane or earthquake, or it may be a total surprise involving, say, a cyber attack having disastrous consequences beyond anything insurers now contemplate. When such a mega- catastrophe strikes, we will get our share of the losses and they will be big — very big. Unlike many other insurers, however, we will be looking to add business the next day.
最终的融资来源——伯克希尔再次以不寻常的程度拥有——是递延所得税。
原文
The final funding source — which again Berkshire possesses to an unusual degree — is deferred income taxes.
这些是我们最终将要支付但在此期间免息的负债。
原文
These are liabilities that we will eventually pay but that are meanwhile interest-free.
正如我之前提到的,我们505亿美元递延税款中约有147亿美元来自我们股权投资组合的未实现收益。这些负债在我们的财务报表中按当前21%的企业税率计提,但将在我们的投资出售时按当时的税率支付。在此之间,我们实际上获得了一笔免息“贷款”,使我们能够拥有比原本更多的资金用于股票投资。
原文
As I indicated earlier, about $14.7 billion of our $50.5 billion of deferred taxes arises from the unrealized gains in our equity holdings. These liabilities are accrued in our financial statements at the current 21% corporate tax rate but will be paid at the rates prevailing when our investments are sold. Between now and then, we in effect have an interest-free “loan” that allows us to have more money working for us in equities than would otherwise be the case.
另外283亿美元的递延税款源于我们在计算当前需缴纳的税款时,能够加速折旧诸如厂房设备等资产。我们记录的前期税收节省在未来几年会逐渐逆转。然而,我们定期购买额外的资产。只要现行税法不变,这一资金来源应该会呈上升趋势。
原文
A further $28.3 billion of deferred tax results from our being able to accelerate the depreciation of assets such as plant and equipment in calculating the tax we must currently pay. The front-ended savings in taxes that we record gradually reverse in future years. We regularly purchase additional assets, however. As long as the present tax law prevails, this source of funding should trend upward.
随着时间的推移,伯克希尔的资金来源基础——也就是我们资产负债表的右侧——应该会增长,主要是通过我们留存的收益。我们的工作是在左侧(资产方)通过增加有吸引力的资产来善用这些留存的资金。
原文
Over time, Berkshire’s funding base — that’s the right-hand side of our balance sheet — should grow, primarily through the earnings we retain. Our job is to put the money retained to good use on the left-hand side, by adding attractive assets.
GEICO 和托尼·奈斯利
这个标题说明了一切:公司和人是不可分割的。
原文
GEICO and Tony Nicely
That title says it all: The company and the man are inseparable.
托尼于1961年加入GEICO,时年18岁;我在1970年代中期遇到他。那时,GEICO在经历了四十年的快速增长和出色承保业绩后,突然濒临破产。新上任的管理层严重低估了GEICO的损失成本,从而低价出售了产品。需要好几个月时间,直到GEICO账簿上那些产生损失的保单——不少于230万份——到期并可以重新定价。在此期间,公司的净资产正迅速逼近零。
原文
Tony joined GEICO in 1961 at the age of 18; I met him in the mid-1970s. At that time, GEICO, after a four- decade record of both rapid growth and outstanding underwriting results, suddenly found itself near bankruptcy. A recently-installed management had grossly underestimated GEICO’s loss costs and consequently underpriced its product. It would take many months until those loss-generating policies on GEICO’s books — there were no less than 2.3 million of them — would expire and could then be repriced. The company’s net worth in the meantime was rapidly approaching zero.
1976年,杰克·伯恩被任命为CEO来拯救GEICO。他上任后不久,我遇到了他,认为他是这份工作的完美人选,并开始积极购买GEICO的股票。几个月内,伯克希尔买下了公司约三分之一的股份,随后这一比例在没有花费我们一分钱的情况下增长到大约一半。这一惊人的增长发生在GEICO恢复健康后,它持续回购自己的股票。总而言之,GEICO的这一半权益让伯克希尔花费了4700万美元,大约相当于你今天在纽约购买一套豪华公寓的价格。
原文
In 1976, Jack Byrne was brought in as CEO to rescue GEICO. Soon after his arrival, I met him, concluded that he was the perfect man for the job, and began to aggressively buy GEICO shares. Within a few months, Berkshire bought about ⅓ of the company, a portion that later grew to roughly ½ without our spending a dime. That stunning accretion occurred because GEICO, after recovering its health, consistently repurchased its shares. All told, this half- interest in GEICO cost Berkshire $47 million, about what you might pay today for a trophy apartment in New York.
现在让我们快进17年到1993年,当时托尼·奈斯利被提升为CEO。那时,GEICO的声誉和盈利能力已经恢复——但增长尚未恢复。事实上,在1992年底,该公司账簿上只有190万份汽车保单,远低于危机前的峰值。在美国汽车保险公司的销售规模中,GEICO当时排名第七,表现平平。
原文
Let’s now fast-forward 17 years to 1993, when Tony Nicely was promoted to CEO. At that point, GEICO’s reputation and profitability had been restored — but not its growth. Indeed, at yearend 1992 the company had only 1.9 million auto policies on its books, far less than its pre-crisis high. In sales volume among U.S. auto insurers, GEICO then ranked an undistinguished seventh.
1995年底,在托尼重振GEICO之后,伯克希尔出价23亿美元收购剩余的50%股份,大约是我们为前半部分支付价格的50倍(人们说我从不加价!)。我们的出价成功了,为伯克希尔带来了一家出色但尚未充分发展的公司,以及一位同样出色的CEO,他将带领GEICO超越我的梦想。
原文
Late in 1995, after Tony had re-energized GEICO, Berkshire made an offer to buy the remaining 50% of the company for $2.3 billion, about 50 times what we had paid for the first half (and people say I never pay up!). Our offer was successful and brought Berkshire a wonderful, but underdeveloped, company and an equally wonderful CEO, who would move GEICO forward beyond my dreams.
GEICO现在是美国第二大汽车保险公司,销售额比1995年增长了1200%。自我们收购以来,承保利润总计155亿美元(税前),可用于投资的浮存金从25亿美元增长到221亿美元。
原文
GEICO is now America’s Number Two auto insurer, with sales 1,200% greater than it recorded in 1995. Underwriting profits have totaled $15.5 billion (pre-tax) since our purchase, and float available for investment has grown from $2.5 billion to $22.1 billion.
据我估计,托尼对GEICO的管理使伯克希尔的内在价值增加了超过500亿美元。除此之外,他是管理者应具备的一切的典范,帮助他的4万名员工识别和培养他们未曾意识到的能力。
原文
By my estimate, Tony’s management of GEICO has increased Berkshire’s intrinsic value by more than $50 billion. On top of that, he is a model for everything a manager should be, helping his 40,000 associates to identify and polish abilities they didn’t realize they possessed.
去年,托尼决定从CEO职位上退休,并于6月30日将该职位移交给他的长期搭档比尔·罗伯茨。我认识并观察比尔工作几十年了,托尼再次做出了正确的决定。托尼将继续担任董事长,并在余生中对GEICO有所帮助。他不可能做得更少。
原文
Last year, Tony decided to retire as CEO, and on June 30th he turned that position over to Bill Roberts, his long-time partner. I’ve known and watched Bill operate for several decades, and once again Tony made the right move. Tony remains Chairman and will be helpful to GEICO for the rest of his life. He’s incapable of doing less.
所有伯克希尔的股东都应对托尼表示感谢。我是第一个。
原文
All Berkshire shareholders owe Tony their thanks. I head the list.
投资
下面我们列出了年底市值最大的十五项普通股投资。我们排除了对卡夫亨氏的持股——325,442,152股——因为伯克希尔是控制集团的一部分,因此必须按“权益”法核算这项投资。在资产负债表上,伯克希尔按GAAP数值138亿美元记录其卡夫亨氏持股,该金额因我们承担的卡夫亨氏2018年无形资产大额减值而减少。年底,我们持有的卡夫亨氏市值为140亿美元,成本基础为98亿美元。
| 2018年12月31日 | ||||
| 股份数* | 公司 | 持股比例 | 成本** | 市值 |
| (百万美元) | ||||
| 151,610,700 | 美国运通公司 | 17.9 | 1,287 | 14,452 |
| 255,300,329 | 苹果公司 | 5.4 | 36,044 | 40,271 |
| 918,919,000 | 美国银行 | 9.5 | 11,650 | 22,642 |
| 84,488,751 | 纽约梅隆银行 | 8.8 | 3,860 | 3,977 |
| 6,789,054 | 特许通讯公司 | 3.0 | 1,210 | 1,935 |
| 400,000,000 | 可口可乐公司 | 9.4 | 1,299 | 18,940 |
| 65,535,000 | 达美航空公司 | 9.6 | 2,860 | 3,270 |
| 18,784,698 | 高盛集团 | 4.9 | 2,380 | 3,138 |
| 50,661,394 | 摩根大通 | 1.5 | 5,605 | 4,946 |
| 24,669,778 | 穆迪公司 | 12.9 | 248 | 3,455 |
| 47,890,899 | 西南航空公司 | 8.7 | 2,005 | 2,226 |
| 21,938,642 | 联合大陆控股有限公司 | 8.1 | 1,195 | 1,837 |
| 146,346,999 | 美国合众银行 | 9.1 | 5,548 | 6,688 |
| 43,387,980 | USG公司 | 31.0 | 836 | 1,851 |
| 449,349,102 | 富国银行 | 9.8 | 10,639 | 20,706 |
| 其他 | 16,201 | 22,423 | ||
| 按市值计价的普通股总计 | 102,867 | 172,757 |
-
* 不包括伯克希尔子公司养老基金持有的股份。
-
** 这是我们实际购买价格,也是我们的计税基础。
原文
Investments
Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value. We exclude our Kraft Heinz holding — 325,442,152 shares — because Berkshire is part of a control group and therefore must account for this investment on the “equity” method. On its balance sheet, Berkshire carries its Kraft Heinz holding at a GAAP figure of $13.8 billion, an amount reduced by our share of the large write-off of intangible assets taken by Kraft Heinz in 2018. At yearend, our Kraft Heinz holding had a market value of $14 billion and a cost basis of $9.8 billion.
| 12/31/1**8 | ||||
| Shares* | Company | Percentageof Company**Owned | Cost** | Market |
| (in**millions) | ||||
| 151,610,700 | American Express Company | 17.9 | $ 1,287 | $ 14,452 |
| 255,300,329 | Apple Inc | 5.4 | 36,044 | 40,271 |
| 918,919,000 | Bank of America Corp | 9.5 | 11,650 | 22,642 |
| 84,488,751 | The Bank of New York Mellon Corp | 8.8 | 3,860 | 3,977 |
| 6,789,054 | Charter Communications, Inc | 3.0 | 1,210 | 1,935 |
| 400,000,000 | The Coca-Cola Company | 9.4 | 1,299 | 18,940 |
| 65,535,000 | Delta Air Lines, Inc | 9.6 | 2,860 | 3,270 |
| 18,784,698 | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc | 4.9 | 2,380 | 3,138 |
| 50,661,394 | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 1.5 | 5,605 | 4,946 |
| 24,669,778 | Moody’s Corporation | 12.9 | 248 | 3,455 |
| 47,890,899 | Southwest Airlines Co | 8.7 | 2,005 | 2,226 |
| 21,938,642 | United Continental Holdings Inc | 8.1 | 1,195 | 1,837 |
| 146,346,999 | U.S. Bancorp | 9.1 | 5,548 | 6,688 |
| 43,387,980 | USG Corporation | 31.0 | 836 | 1,851 |
| 449,349,102 | Wells Fargo & Company | 9.8 | 10,639 | 20,706 |
| Others | 16,201 | 22,423 | ||
| Total Common Stocks Carried at Market | $ 102,867 | $ 172,757 |
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* Excludes shares held by pension funds of Berkshire subsidiaries.
-
** This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.
查理和我不将上述1728亿美元视为一列股票代码——一种会因“华尔街”降级、预期的美联储行动、可能的政治发展、经济学家的预测或任何其他可能成为当日话题的事件而终止的金融调情。
原文
Charlie and I do not view the $172.8 billion detailed above as a collection of ticker symbols — a financial dalliance to be terminated because of downgrades by “the Street,” expected Federal Reserve actions, possible political developments, forecasts by economists or whatever else might be the subject du jour .
我们在持股中看到的是部分拥有的一批公司,这些公司按加权计算,其运营所需的净有形股权资本回报率约为20%。这些公司也无需使用过高的债务水平就能赚取利润。
原文
What we see in our holdings, rather than, is an assembly of companies that we partly own and that, on a weighted basis, are earning about 20% on the net tangible equity capital required to run their businesses. These companies, also, earn their profits without employing excessive levels of debt.
大型、成熟且易于理解的企业获得这样的回报在任何情况下都是非凡的。当与过去十年许多投资者在债券上接受的回报相比——例如,30年期美国国债3%或更少——这真是令人难以置信。
原文
Returns of that order by large, established and understandable businesses are remarkable under any circumstances. They are truly mind-blowing when compared against the return that many investors have accepted on bonds over the last decade — 3% or less on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, for example.
有时,一只股票高得离谱的购买价格会使出色的企业变成糟糕的投资——如果不是永久性的,至少