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2024年年度股东大会

第一部分/第五部分

2024年年度股东大会

上午场

1. 介绍

沃伦·巴菲特:(掌声)好了,别把掌声都用在查理身上,我是说,我们还有(笑声)

此外,首先,我们有格雷格·阿贝尔,我们的董事——(掌声)

还有阿吉特·贾因,坐在他旁边负责保险业务。(掌声)

接下来,我们转到第一排的后面位置。

如果各位董事能一直站着直到我们介绍完毕,我们将按字母顺序逐一介绍。

我们有霍华德·巴菲特——(掌声)苏珊·巴菲特(掌声)史蒂夫·伯克、肯·谢诺特、克里斯·戴维斯、苏·德克尔、夏洛特·盖曼、小汤姆·默菲、罗恩·奥尔森、沃利·韦茨和梅丽尔·维特默。好了。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: (Applause) Yeah, don’t wear out all your clapping on Charlie, I mean, we got(Laughs)

In addition, well, we have, first of all, Greg Abel, our director, and -(Applause)

And Ajit Jain, sitting next to him on insurance. (Applause)

And moving, then, to the back of this first section.

If each of the directors there would remain standing until we finish, we’ll go alphabetically down the line.

And we’ve got Howard Buffett. We have -(applause) Susan Buffett (applause) Steve Burke, Ken Chenault, Chris Davis, Sue Decker, Charlotte Guyman, Tom Murphy, Jr., Ron Olson, Wally Weitz, and Meryl Witmer. OK. (Applause)

2. 要感谢的两个人

沃伦·巴菲特:我想感谢两个人,然后我们再简要介绍第一季度的业绩。

首先,我要感谢梅丽莎·夏皮罗,她筹备了整个活动。你无法想象这背后有多少工作。(掌声)

她刚刚向我报告,我们创下了喜诗糖果的新纪录。我想他们带来了六吨糖果,并且会全部售罄。

还有一件事我想提一下,今年我们在书店的图书角只有一本书。通常我们有大约25本。

但我们有《穷查理宝典》第四版。我想昨天我们卖出了大约2400本。

今年只有这一本书。明年我们会恢复往常的选书。但我们认为今年应该把焦点交给查理。

然后我想再介绍一个人。那就是制作那部影片的人。

你无法想象那有多少工作量,因为,比如说,那些我们过去用过的场景,如果涉及好莱坞明星或其他人士,我们需要重新获得播放许可,因为我们最初告诉他们只会在我们这个礼堂内播放。当然,后来CNBC也播出了。

你简直无法想象这需要多少努力,以及我们得到了《绝望主妇》和杰米·李·柯蒂斯等人的大力配合。(笑声)

至于《绝望主妇》,我们必须获得迪士尼的同意。

这很容易。但要联系五位《绝望主妇》——(笑声)最后有一位才到位。

但把这一切整合起来的工作,是由同一个人负责的,他为我们做了很多很多年。

我希望大家能把灯光聚焦到布拉德·安德伍德身上,就一小会儿。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: There are two people I would like to thank, and then we’ll get on to the brief description of the results of the first quarter.

First of all, I’d like to thank Melissa Shapiro, who put this whole event together. You can’t imagine the work that goes into it. (Applause)

She just reported to me that we set a new record for See’s Candy. I think they brought along six tons. And they will sell out.

And one thing I do want to mention, we have only one book at the bookstore at the Bookworm this year. Normally we have about 25.

But we have Poor Charlie’s Almanack, fourth edition. And I think we sold about 24 hundred of them yesterday.

And that will be the only book. Next year we’ll go back to having our usual selection. But we thought we would just turn it over to Charlie this year.

And then I would like to introduce one further person. And that’s the person who put that movie together.

And you can’t imagine the amount of work it is, because, for example, on those scenes that we’ve used from the past, if they involved Hollywood stars or various people, we needed to get permission all over again to show it because we told them originally we would only show it within the confines of our auditorium here. And of course, it went out on CNBC.

And you just can’t imagine how much effort, but also the great cooperation we got from all those Desperate Housewives and Jamie Lee [Curtis]. (Laughs)

And with the Desperate Housewives we had to get Disney’s OK.

And that was easy. But running down five Desperate Housewives -(laughs) that one came in toward the end.

But the job of putting this together has been handled by the same fellow that handles us been doing these for years and years and years and years.

And I just would appreciate it if you could just put the spotlight on Brad Underwood for just a minute. (Applause)

3. 第一季度业绩及1820亿美元现金

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们今早7点(当地时间)发布了第一季度的部分业绩。

一些目光敏锐的分析师和媒体人士已经从中捕捉到了一两个信息,我相信稍后会有相关问题。

但首先,请看第一张幻灯片,现在应该显示出来了。

大家会看到,在第一季度,当我们谈论伯克希尔的营业利润时——我们多次解释过,我们认为我们提供的这些数字最能描述业务的真实状况,排除了市场的剧烈波动,否则市场波动会导致我们一个季度报告巨额盈利,另一个季度报告巨额亏损。在伯克希尔,我们根本不关注那些波动。

但大家会看到,我们经历了一个高于平均水平的季度。

阿吉特·贾因希望我向大家指出,你不能将第一季度的保险利润乘以四。保险业务不是这样运作的。

虽然我们为全球的风暴提供保险,但那些可能影响我们盈利的主要风暴,按照我们的评估,第一大风险可能是从对我们不利的位置登陆,然后沿着东海岸一路北上的风暴。这是我们评估中的头号风险。

但我们涉及各种风险。明天可能发生地震,也可能十年后发生地震。我们就是做这种生意的。

但第一季度的确——它应该是我们最好的季度。当然不应该是我们最差的季度。最可能成为最差季度的是第三季度。

但在保险业,任何事情都可能发生。幸运的是,第一季度没发生什么大事(笑声)。

因此,我们的保险承保利润有了很大改善。

然后,我们的投资收益几乎注定——几乎肯定会增加。我在年报中说过这一点,因为收益率比去年高得多。

我们持有大量固定收益的短期投资,它们对利率变化非常敏感。

所以这个数字大幅上升。我可以预测,今年这个数字会上升。

我们有更多资金需要投资,我们马上会谈到这一点。这相当可预测。所以这个数字会上升。

谈到铁路业务,铁路利润略有下降。

但以目前的交通状况,我们的盈利本应略高一些。而交通状况本身也可能影响盈利。铁路业务存在潜在的盈利波动。

如果你们愿意,每周三都可以查到前一周的铁路运量数据。

如果你真去查,可能有点疯狂,但我每周都会查。这些数据是公开的,你会看到整个行业的铁路运量略有下降。

这些盈利符合预期。但就同等运量而言,我们的盈利本应略高。

在能源公司,我们获得了更好的盈利,但盈利被扭曲了。好吧,它们受到了我在年报中写到的情况的影响,我们今天上午无疑会进一步讨论。但基于去年的低基数,盈利有所上升。

所以,最后看最终数字,112亿美元,比去年有了相当大的改善。

但我们预计盈利应该会逐年温和增长,因为毕竟去年我们保留了大约370亿美元的盈利。

所以,如果我们多保留370亿美元,你们把钱留给我们,我们应该做出一些令人满意的成绩。

伯克希尔的经济目标很简单:增加营业利润,同时减少流通股数量。描述起来很简单,执行起来不一定那么简单。

但这就是我们努力的方向。

请看第二张幻灯片,我提供了历史数据,我选了疫情前的一年,当时我们达到了240亿美元。然后在疫情第一年下滑了。

接着,如你所见,我们从270亿上升到300亿,再到370亿。

这些盈利的一个有趣之处在于,它们已经扣除了折旧、摊销、税费等等。所以你可以认为,伯克希尔每天(包括周末和节假日)有略超过1亿美元的资金可用于配置。

我们多次阐述过我们试图如何配置这些资金。我们肩负着这个责任。

有时候,请看下一页,你们会看到这如何累积了股东权益,以至于伯克希尔在3月31日通过留存收益积累了5740亿美元。

自从我们掌控伯克希尔·哈撒韦以来,我们一直在留存收益,除了一天——我记得大概是1968年或1969年——董事们宣布了每股10美分的股息。我想我当时可能正好在洗手间或别的什么地方。(笑声)

所以,如果不算那段疯狂时期,我们一直在留存收益,一直在储蓄你们的钱,并投入运作。

有时候,有时候,我们做了一些大错事。

但从未接近致命错误。偶尔,我们做了一些真正卓有成效的事。

正如查理过去指出的,在57或58年里,可能有六到十二个真正重要的重大决策。从未有接近致命的错误。这仍然是我们的指导原则。

我们积累了5710亿美元,我忍不住看了谁是第二名。摩根大通在年末有3270亿美元,我相信在季度末达到了3380亿美元。但他们支付可观的股息,回购股票。

他们的业务股本回报率更高。但他们没有像我们这样把利润全部再投资,他们也不应该这样做。

这确实展示了,如果没有奇迹,只要长期储蓄,是可以做到的。

我们有一群股东,最初我们有一群合伙人,查理和我,他们想要储蓄。

他们把资金留在我们这里,就像你们刚才在影片中看到的埃迪和多萝西·戴维斯。戴维斯家族及其子孙偶尔会用资金做其他事情。但他们基本上还是把钱留给了我们。

我们是一个储蓄工具。他们过得很好。但他们并不是试图像资本主义早期那些国王和王后那样生活,在新英格兰建造豪宅,每个用餐者身后都站着一个仆人等等。

所以,吸引到我们这里的,很少有我认为是“看我多有钱”类型的人。

这没什么不对,但他们只是去了别处。过了一段时间,按照过去的标准,他们的消费会达到令人难以置信的数额。

我们这里的人——我们群体中没有守财奴或囤积癖之类的人。他们过得很好。

但复利数学加上漫长的时间跑道创造了奇迹。我们稍后在午餐前会举一个例子,说明这种理念能带来什么。

因此,季度末我们的现金和国库券为1820亿美元。

我认为一个合理的假设是,本季度末它们可能会达到大约2000亿美元。

我们很乐意花掉它,但我们不会花,除非我们认为在做一些风险很低且能赚很多钱的事。

目前我们股票的价格水平,回购股份能略微增加价值。

但我们真的会大规模回购,只是你无法大规模回购,因为人们不想大规模卖出。

但在某些市场条件下,我们可以将相当多的资金用于回购。

正如你们在最后一张幻灯片上看到的,过去五年我们一直在回购。

我们无法像许多其他公司那样大量回购,因为交易方式不同。成交量不一样,因为我们的投资者——在座各位,真的,他们不考虑卖出。我希望你们很多人甚至不会每天或每周查看股价。

那些每天查看股价的人,赚的钱不如那些基本忘了股价的人(笑声)多年来赚得多。

这大致就是伯克希尔的故事。

我们会努力增加营业利润。我们会在合理的时候减少股份。我们期待偶尔出现重大机会。我们对目前的处境相当满意。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. We put out some results for the first quarter this morning at 7 o’clock our time.

And some a few sharp-eyed analysts and press people already picked up one or two items from it, which I’m sure we’ll get some questions on later.

But if we could start out with slide number one, which should be showing now.

You’ll see that in the first quarter the way and we talk about operating earnings at Berkshire, we’ve explained that many times that’s why we think these figures that we give you are the most descriptive of what’s really going on in the business and take out the wild swings in the market that otherwise just, you know, is going to have us reporting big earnings one quarter and big losses another quarter. We pay no attention to those at Berkshire.

But you will see that we had a better-than-average quarter.

And Ajit Jain wants me to point out to everyone that you cannot take the insurance earnings of the first quarter and multiply by four. It just doesn’t work that way in insurance, and

While we insure storms around the world the major storms, for example, that would affect our earnings would be probably number one would be something that went along the that came in at the wrong place from our standpoint and that just kept going up the East Coast. And that’s our number one risk as we evaluate things.

But we’re in all kinds of risk. There can be an earthquake tomorrow. There can be an earthquake ten years from now. And then they’re going to you know we’re in that sort of business.

But the first quarter does it does hit the it should be our best quarter. Certainly shouldn’t be our worst quarter. The most likely quarter to be the worst quarter is the third quarter.

But anything can happen in insurance. But fortunately, nothing much happened in insurance (laughs) during the first quarter.

So, we had much-improved earnings in insurance underwriting.

And then our investment income was almost bound well it was almost certain to increase. And I said that in the annual report because yields are so much higher than they were last year.

And we have a lot of fixed short short-term investments that are very responsive to the changes in interest rates.

So that figure is up substantially. And I can predict that that one will be up for the year.

We’ve got more money to invest, as we’ll get to in a minute. And that’s fairly predictable. So that number will be up.

When you get into the into the railroad the railroad earnings we’re down modestly, and

But we should not immediately but we should be earning somewhat more money than we are earning under present traffic conditions. And then traffic conditions could also hit the earnings. It’s a potential earnings at the railroad.

And if you want, every Wednesday, you can get car loadings from the previous week.

It’s a little deranged if you do get them, but I get them every week. They’re available and you’ll see that car loadings have been running for the industry have been running down modestly. And

These earnings are were as is expected. But we should earn somewhat more money than that on the equivalent amount of car loadings. And

We in the energy company, we had better earnings, but our earnings were distorted. Well, they were affected by conditions that I wrote about in the annual report, and we’ll undoubtedly discuss more this morning. But off a low base of last year, they were up somewhat.

And so, you get down to the final figure, and 11.2 billion is it’s quite an improvement from last year.

But we would expect our earnings should go up modestly from year to year, because after all, we’re retaining like 37 billion last year of earnings.

So, if we put 37 billion more you left it with us we should do something that’s satisfactory.

And the goal at Berkshire economic goal is to increase the operating earnings and decrease the shares outstanding. It’s that simple to describe. It’s not quite so simple to pull off, necessarily.

But that’s what we’re attempting to do.

And if we’ll turn to slide two, please I’ve got the history and I just picked the pre-pandemic year, when we hit 24 billion. And then we fell off in the first year of the pandemic.

And then, as you see, we’ve moved up from 27 to 30 to 37 billion.

And interesting thing about these earnings is they’re after depreciation and amortization and taxes and all that sort of thing. So, you can figure that, essentially, Berkshire has a little over a hundred million dollars per day, including weekends and holidays, coming in to deploy.

And we’ve set out many times what we’re attempting to are attempting to deploy that money. But we have that responsibility, and

Sometimes if you’ll turn to the next page well, you’ll see how that’s built up the shareholders’ equity so that Berkshire had at March 31st 574 billion through retaining earnings.

And we’ve been retaining earnings ever since we took control of Berkshire Hathaway except one day, as I remember I think it was maybe 1968 or 9 the directors declared a ten cent a share dividend. And I think I must’ve been in the restroom or something at the time. (Laughter)

So, if you leave out that period of madness, we’ve been retaining earnings we’ve been saving your money putting it to work.

And sometimes sometimes, we’ve done things that were big mistakes, and

But but never we never get close to fatal mistakes. And every now and then we do something that really works.

And, as Charlie pointed out in the past, you know, there’s really there’s probably been half a dozen to a dozen over 57 or 58 years whatever it would be really important, big decisions. And there’s been nothing close to fatal. So that continues to be the guideline, and

We have accumulated 571 billion, and I couldn’t help but look at who’s second. And JPMorgan had 327 billion at year end, and they’re up to 338, I believe, at the end of the quarter. But they pay significant dividends. They repurchase shares.

They’ve got a business that earns better returns on equity. But they don’t plow it and they shouldn’t they don’t plow it back exactly like we have.

And it this does show what can be done really, without any miracles if you save money over time.

And we have a group of shareholders we had a group of partners originally, Charlie and I did that wanted to save money.

And left their money with like in that film you just saw. You saw Eddie and Dorothy Davis. And the Davis family and the children and the grandchildren periodically did some other things with the money. But they also basically left it with us, and

And we were a savings vehicle. And they were able to do live very well. But they weren’t they weren’t trying to live like the kings and queens of earlier in capitalism and used to build the houses in New England and, you know, have a servant standing behind everybody eating and all that sort of thing.

So, we’ve had very few what I would call “look at me” type people that are attracted

There’s nothing wrong with it, but they just go someplace else. And they are spending sort of unbelievable sums after a while, by the standards of the past.

And our people nobody we’ve had nobody that’s a that’s a miser or a hoarder or anything like that in our group. They live very well.

But the math of compounding and a long long runway have done wonders. And we will talk a little later right before lunch, we’ll give an illustration of that, of what can be done with that sort of philosophy.

So, our cash and Treasury bills were 182 billion at the quarter end.

And I think it’s a fair assumption that they’ll probably be about 200 billion at the end of the this quarter.

We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend it unless we think there doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money, and

And our stock is at a level where it’s it’s adds slightly to the value when we buy-in shares.

But we would we would really buy it in in a big way, except you can’t buy it in in a big way because people don’t want to sell it in a big way.

But under certain market conditions, we could deploy quite a bit of money in in repurchases.

And, as you’ll see on the final slide, we have bought-in in the last five years.

We can’t buy them like a great many other companies because it just doesn’t it doesn’t trade that way. The volume isn’t the same because we have investors, and the investors you know, the people in this room, really they don’t think about selling. They probably

I would hope many of you don’t even check the price daily, or weekly. You know, it

The people who check the price daily have not made the money that the people who’ve forgotten about it (laughs) basically have over the years.

And that’s sort of the story of Berkshire.

We’ll try to increase operating earnings. And we will try to reduce shares when it makes sense to do so. And we will hope for an occasional big opportunity. And we’re quite satisfied with the position we’re in.

4. 现在出售部分苹果股票,预期未来税率更高

沃伦·巴菲特:有了这些背景,我想我们把时间交给贝基·奎克。我们将在贝基和现场观众之间交替提问。

贝基,你想先问第一个问题吗?

贝基·奎克:好的。谢谢,沃伦。

我们先从你刚才提到的事情开始,今早10-Q报告中有一些新闻。报告显示,伯克希尔在上个季度又卖出了1.15亿股苹果股票。这是伯克希尔最大的持仓。

我想就此提出一个问题,来自谢尔曼·林,他是一位27岁的伯克希尔·哈撒韦B类股股东,来自马来西亚。

他问:“去年你提到可口可乐和美国运通是伯克希尔的两个长期持有的部分所有权仓位。你在最近的股东信中花了一些时间谈论这两家优秀企业的优点。

我注意到你将苹果排除在这个群体之外。自伯克希尔2016年首次投资以来,您或您的投资经理对苹果业务的经济状况或其作为投资的吸引力的看法是否发生了变化?”

沃伦·巴菲特:不,我——但我们确实卖出了股票。我想说,到年底时,我认为苹果极有可能仍然是我们最大的普通股持仓。

有趣的一点是,查理和我看待普通股、有价证券或人们喜欢看的东西时,把它们视为企业。

所以,当我们拥有冰雪皇后,或者无论什么,我们把它看作一个企业。当我们拥有可口可乐、美国运通或苹果时,我们把它看作一个企业。

我们可以在市场上以企业的方式购买真正优秀的公司。

我们不能购买全部——我是说,不能购买它们的全部股份。我们不能购买90%或80%或类似的份额。

但当我们看待可口可乐、美国运通和苹果时,我们把它们看作企业。

当然,存在税收因素的差异。存在管理责任的差异,以及许多其他事情。

但在配置你的资金方面,我们总是把每只股票看作一个企业。我们不去——我们没有办法,也不试图预测市场。我们不试图挑选股票。

我很多很多年都做错了事。我很早就对股票产生了兴趣,并为之着迷。

我并没有浪费时间,因为我阅读了所有可能的书籍和其他一切。但最终,我在林肯市拿起了一本《聪明的投资者》。

书中有几句话,比我所能表达的更加雄辩,但大意是:如果你把股票看作一个企业,把市场视为不是来指导你而是来服务你的东西,从长远来看,你会比试图看图表、听别人谈论移动平均线、关注美联储声明等等,做得好得多。

所以,这当时对我来说非常有意义。随着我们拥有的资本量以及所有情况的变化,我被允许配置资金的方式,以及查理和我当然一直在讨论的,多年来也在演变。

但基本原则是本·格雷厄姆在那本我花了几美元买的书中阐述的。它基本上对我说:“你一直在浪费时间。但也许你可以利用你学到或读到的东西,更好地加以运用。”

然后查理出现了,告诉我可以更好地运用。这就是为什么我们拥有美国运通——一家出色的企业。我们拥有可口可乐——一家出色的企业。我们拥有苹果——一家甚至更好的企业。

除非发生真正非同寻常的事情,否则当格雷格接管这个地方时,我们将继续拥有苹果、美国运通和可口可乐。

这是一个如此简单的方法,近乎具有欺骗性。大多数事情,如果你不断努力,比如多学点数学或多学点物理,你会进步。

但投资,你真的不需要那样做。你真的需要正确的思维模式。

所以,除非发生真正戏剧性的事情,从根本上改变资本配置和战略,否则苹果将是我们最大的投资。

但在当前条件下,我完全不介意建立现金头寸。

当我审视股票市场的替代选择,并观察世界正在发生的事情时,我们发现这相当有吸引力。

有一件事可能会让你惊讶,但我认识的几乎每个人都比我认为他们应该的更关注避税。

在伯克希尔,我们不介意纳税。我们对苹果的已实现收益按21%的联邦税率纳税。

就在不久前,这个税率是35%,在我经营期间,过去还曾达到52%。

政府——联邦政府——拥有我们企业盈利的一部分。他们不拥有资产,但他们拥有盈利的一个百分比。

他们可以在任何一年改变这个百分比。他们目前规定的百分比是21%。

我想说,以目前的财政政策,我认为有些事情必须改变。我认为税率很可能会提高。

如果政府想从你、我或伯克希尔的收入中拿走更大份额,他们可以做到。

他们可能有一天决定不希望财政赤字这么大,因为这有重要后果,他们可能不想大幅减少支出。他们可能决定从我们的盈利中拿走更大比例。我们会支付。

在伯克希尔,我们总是希望缴纳可观的联邦所得税。我们认为,对于一个对我们的股东如此慷慨的国家来说,这是恰当的。

这是一个我幸运地、伯克希尔幸运地身处其中的地方。

如果我们像去年那样寄出一张支票——我们向美国联邦政府支付了超过50亿美元——如果其他800家公司也这样做,那么美国其他任何人都无需支付一分钱的联邦税——(掌声)无论是所得税。

没有社会保障税,没有遗产税,没有——一路往下都免了。

我希望伯克希尔发展得足够好,以至于我们能进入”800俱乐部”,甚至再上升几个位次。开出那张支票对我毫无困扰。

我真的希望,鉴于美国为你们所有人所做的一切,你们也不应该因为我们这样做而感到困扰。

如果我今年按21%的税率纳税,而以后按更高的百分比纳税,我想你们实际上不会介意我们今年卖掉了一点苹果。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: No, I would the but we have sold shares. And I would say that at the end of the year, I would think it extremely likely that Apple is the largest common stock holding we have.

Now, one interesting thing is that Charlie and I looked at common stocks, or marketable equities, or the things that people love to look at, as being businesses.

And so, when we own a Dairy Queen, or if we own whatever it may be, we look at that as a business. And when we own Coca-Cola, or American Express, or Apple, we look at that as a business.

Now, we can buy really wonderful companies in the market as businesses.

We can’t buy all of them I mean, all of their shares. We can’t buy 90 percent or 80 percent or anything like that.

But when we look at Coca-Cola, and American Express, and Apple, we look at them as businesses.

Now, there’s differences in tax factors. There’s difference in managerial responsibility, a whole bunch of things.

But in terms of deploying your money, we always look at every stock as a business. And we don’t we have no way no attempt made to predict markets. We have no attempt made to pick stocks.

I went through many, many years doing the wrong thing. I got interested in stocks very early. And I was fascinated by them.

And I wasn’t wasting my time because I was reading every book possible and everything else. But finally, I picked up a copy of The Intelligent Investor in Lincoln.

And there was a few sentences in there that said, much more eloquently than I can say it, but if you look at stocks as a business and treat the market as something that doesn’t tell you isn’t there to instruct you but is there to serve you, you’ll do a lot better over time than if you try to take charts and listen to people talking about moving averages, and look at the Fed pronouncements, and all of that sort of thing.

And so that made a lot of sense to me then. And the way I’ve been allowed to deploy it and Charlie and I talked about this, of course, constantly has changed over the years as the amount of capital we have has changed and all of that.

But the basic principle was laid out by Ben Graham in that book, which I picked up for a couple of dollars. And which basically said to me, “You’ve been wasting your time now. But maybe you can use what you’ve learned or been reading about and put it to better use.”

And then Charlie came along and told me I could put it to even better use. And that’s sort of the story of why we own American Express, which is a wonderful business. We own Coca-Cola, which is a wonderful business. And we own Apple, which is an even better business.

But and we will own unless something really extraordinary happens we will own Apple, and American Express, and Coca-Cola when Greg takes over this place. And

It’s such a simple approach that it’s almost deceptive. Most things, if you keep working harder and harder at it, you know, you learn a little more math, or you learn a little more physics.

But investments, you don’t really have to do that. You really have to have your mind set properly.

So, we will end up unless something dramatically happens that really changes capital allocation and strategy we will have Apple as our largest investment.

But I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position.

I think when I look at the alternative of what’s available in the equity markets, and I look at the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.

And one thing that may surprise you, but we almost everybody I know pays a lot more attention to not paying taxes than I think they should.

We don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire. And we are paying a 21% federal rate on the gains we’re taking in Apple.

And that rate was 35 percent not that long ago, and it’s been 52 percent in the past when I’ve been operating.

It the government owns the federal government owns a part of the earnings of the business we make. They don’t own the assets, but they own a percentage of the earnings.

And they can change that percentage any year. And the percentage that they’ve decreed currently is 21 percent.

And I would say with the present fiscal policies, I think that something has to give. And I think that higher taxes are quite likely.

And if the government wants to take a greater share of your income, or mine, or Berkshire’s, they can do it.

And they may decide that someday they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large because that has some important consequences, and they may not want to decrease spending a lot. And they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we earn. And we’ll pay it.

And we always hope at Berkshire to pay substantial federal income taxes. We think it’s appropriate that a company a country that’s been as generous to our owners

It’s been the place I was lucky Berkshire was lucky it was here.

And if we send in a check like we did last year we sent in over five billion dollars to the U.S. federal government and if 800 other company had done the same thing, no other person in the United States would have had to pay a dime of federal taxes -(applause) whether income taxes.

No Social Security taxes, no estate taxes, no It’s open down the line.

Now that’s I would like to I hope things develop well enough with Berkshire that we say we’re in the 800 club, and maybe even move up a few notches. It doesn’t bother me in the least to write that check.

And I would really hope with all that America’s done for all of you, that it shouldn’t bother you that we do it.

And if I’m doing it at 21 percent this year, and we’re doing it at a lot higher percentage later on, I don’t think you’ll actually mind the fact that we sold a little Apple this year.

5. 我们喜欢日本投资,但将保持”以美国为中心”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们进入第一区。(掌声)

现场观众:您好,巴菲特先生。我是马修·赖,来自中国香港。我经营一家名为F-Dub的上市公司。我们非常感谢向您学习。您确实激励了我们。

我的问题是,除了电动车公司比亚迪之外,在什么情况下您会重新考虑并再次投资香港和中国大陆的公司?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。(掌声)

嗯,我们的主要投资将始终在美国。我们认为——(掌声)

我们在美国投资的公司,美国运通在全球开展业务。几乎没有哪家公司能像可口可乐那样在全球开展业务。

我的意思是,在大约200个国家中的170或180个国家,他们是首选软饮料。这些是几年前的大致数字,可能现在也差不多。

但这种全球接受程度,我认为几乎无与伦及。我确实想不出有哪家公司——美国运通在信用卡领域占有我认为极其强势的地位。部分原因之一是我们几分钟前介绍的一位董事,肯·谢诺特。

但在过去20年里,由于许多原因,这一地位大幅增强。

所以,我们——比亚迪的投资是一个——

嗯,我们在日本进行了投资,那是五年前的事,那完全是被迫的。那非常引人注目,极其引人注目。

我们尽可能快地买入。我们花了一年时间,将我们资产的百分之几投入了五家非常大的公司。但这就是我们规模带来的问题。

你不会看到我们在美国以外进行大量投资,尽管我们通过这些其他公司参与全球经济。

但我了解美国的规则。弱点、优势,无论是什么。我对世界各地的经济体一般没有同样的感觉。

我对其他文化的把握不是特别好。幸运的是,我不必这样做,因为我不生活在一个没有大经济体的蕞尔小国。

但我身处的经济——从占世界人口的0.5%开始,在极短的时间内最终占据了世界产出的20%以上。

所以,我们将以美国为中心。

我的意思是,如果我们做一些真正大的事情,极有可能是在美国。

查理在那么多年里,只有两次告诉我,你知道,这个真的——你知道?

他总是顺着我,当我在提议某件事时,他会说:“嗯,这确实不怎么样,但可能这是你能想到的最好的了,所以我同意这个想法。“(笑声)

但查理有两次和我一起拍桌子说:“买,买,买。”

比亚迪是其中之一。好市多是另一个。我们买了一定数量的好市多,买了相当多的比亚迪。但回头看——

他已经很激进了,但我本应更激进。在好市多上,不激进并不是致命的。

但他在两家公司上都正确,而且是大大地正确。

我了解大多数市场的情况。但我认为我们在几乎任何国家进行大规模投资的可能性都不大。尽管我们不完全排除这种可能。

我对我们在日本的仓位感觉非常好,我们会持有多年。格雷格在某个时候将接手处理。我们对那项投资再满意不过了。

但你真的必须——我们确实有不同的视角看待——我们看待你们的钱,我们无法承受损失,我们觉得在美国比在许多其他国家犯真正重大错误的可能性要小得多。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Applause)

Well, our primary investments will always be in the United States. We do think it -(Applause)

The companies we invest in in the United States American Express does business around the world. And no company hardly does business around the world like Coca-Cola.

I mean, they are the preferred soft drink, you know, in something maybe like 170 or 180 out of 200 company 200 countries. Those are rough approximations from a few years back, probably.

But that degree of acceptance worldwide is I think it’s almost unmatched. I can’t really think of any company that has American Express has a position in the credit card field which I think is extremely strong. And part of that was one of the directors one of the reasons for that is one of the directors that I introduced a few minutes ago, Ken Chenault.

But it has strengthened dramatically over the last 20 years for a lot of reasons.

So, we will the BYD investment was a

And well, we made the commitment in Japan, which I did five years ago, and that was just overwhelmingly was compelling. It was extraordinarily compelling.

And we put we bought it as fast as we could. And we spent a year, and, you know, we got a few percent of our assets in five very big companies. But that’s the problem with being our size.

But you won’t find us making a lot of investments outside the United States, although we’re participating through these other companies in the world economy.

But I understand the United States rules. Weaknesses, strengths, whatever it may be. I don’t have the same feeling for economies, generally, around the world.

I don’t pick up on other cultures extremely well. And the lucky thing is I don’t have to, because, you know, I don’t live in some tiny little country that has no just doesn’t have a big economy.

But I’m in an economy already that has, you know, after starting out with a half a percent of the world’s population, has ended up with well over 20 percent of the world’s output, and in an amazingly short period of time.

So I we will be American-oriented.

I mean, if we do something really big, it’s extremely likely to be in the United States.

Charlie, in all those years, there’s only two times he’s told me that, you know, this one is really you know?

He would always go along with me, you know, and say, well when I was suggesting something, he’d say, “Well, this is really not that great, but it’s probably the best you’ll come up with, so I’ll go along with the idea.” (Laughs)

But Charlie twice has pounded the table with me and just said, you know, “Buy, buy, buy.”

And BYD was one of them. And Costco was the other. And we bought a certain amount of Costco, and we bought quite a bit of BYD. But, looking back

He already was aggressive, but I should’ve been more aggressive. And in Costco, it wasn’t fatal that we weren’t.

But he was right, big time, in both companies. I will

I’m aware of what goes on in most markets. But I think it’s unlikely that we make any large commitments in almost any country you can name. Although, you know, we don’t rule it out entirely.

And I feel extremely good about our Japanese position, and we’ll have that in, I don’t know how many years. Greg will be sitting with that at some point. And we couldn’t be happier with that.

But you really have to we really have a different outlook in looking at while we look at your money, which we couldn’t bear to lose, and we feel that we’re very less likely to make any truly major mistakes in the United States than in many other countries.

6. 如果各州施加过度气候变化成本,我们的公用事业不会把钱往水里扔

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,贝基?

贝基·奎克:下一个问题来自斯坦利·霍姆斯,一位来自盐湖城的伯克希尔股东。

他问:“在2024年致股东的信中,巴菲特董事长指出伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源去年经历了严重的盈利失望,并对公用事业行业的盈利和资产价值表示担忧。

“认识到投资者担心与气候变化相关的支出,且监管环境充满新的不确定性,董事长建议一些司法管辖区可能采用公共电力模式。

现在有迹象表明,犹他州的政策制定者可能已经准备朝这个方向迈进。

“犹他州立法机构最近规定,该州有权作为州内发电厂的唯一电力购买方,并在某些情况下,在发电厂退役前购买该电厂。

州公用事业监管机构在法律上有义务优先考虑公共购买电力和设施,其中可能包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源旗下PacifiCorp公用事业公司Rocky Mountain Power拥有的资产。

伯克希尔将通过BHE继续在那些公司资产可能面临州政府没收性政策和行动的司法管辖区投入资源吗?

伯克希尔能源如何与犹他州官员合作,以尽量减少公司潜在的损失?”

沃伦·巴菲特:我将让格雷格和我一起回答这个问题。

但我要说的是,我们认为犹他州实际上很可能会公平对待我们,无论是在批准合理费率方面,给予我们对其物业预期的一般回报,还是如果他们出于某种原因决定转向公共电力。我认为他们会公平地补偿我们。

在20世纪30年代,内布拉斯加州的参议员乔治·诺里斯将内布拉斯加州变成了一个公共电力州。我们在爱荷华州的经历表明,自由企业有其作用。我们能够运营一家私营公用事业公司,对社会而言,至少在许多州,比人们通过公共电力运营更有效率。

但实际情况是,将有巨额资金——巨额资金——投入到电力上。我们一直——

如果你打算由私人所有者来做,没有比伯克希尔更适合满足国家需求的重要部分(如果不是大部分)的了。

我们将以一定的回报率来做,这个回报率不是为了让们致富或类似的事情。这是一个合理的回报率。

但如果我们认为得不到任何回报,我们就不会去做。那有点疯狂。

我们看到在一些州,与气候变化相关的部分成本不被视为公用事业公司不应该承担的成本。

请相信我,如果是公共所有,他们也会承担这些成本。

但我们会按照社会的指示去做。我们有资金。我们有知识来大规模参与对国家极为重要的事情。

但我们不会把钱往水里扔。

我不担心——我的理解是,格雷格现在会立即详细说明,但我不认为犹他州对公平对待公用事业公司的想法不友好。

查理?

哦,查理。我太习惯了。(笑声和掌声)

我刚才已经好几次忍住没提他了。但我又——我又会忍不住。

格雷格·阿贝尔:这是莫大的荣幸。

是的,沃伦你在信中首先提到了行业面临的挑战。然后你刚刚提到了未来许多年能源行业、公用事业部门需要进行的重大投资。

我认为如果我们从那里开始,如果我想想我们的各个公用事业公司,我们肯定会谈到犹他州和PacifiCorp。但如果你看看每个公用事业公司正在积累的基础需求以及满足这些需求所需投入的资金量,那绝对是惊人的。

所以当你在信中提出这一点时,这是一个非常重要的问题。我们必须有一个有效的监管契约,无论是公用事业公司——它必须与州合作,犹他州就是一个例子。否则最终可能成为一个公共电力实体。

为了稍微设定一下背景,如果我想想爱荷华州,你提到了,我们在那里进行了大量投资。这与州和立法机构希望的公共政策非常一致,他们颁布了非常具体的法律来鼓励这一点。

但那个公用事业公司现在已有100多年的历史。如果看看MidAmerican爱荷华州公用事业公司未来到2030年代中期与AI和数据中心相关的需求,那段时间需求将翻倍。

这发生了——我们花了100多年才达到今天的水平。现在它将翻倍。

这将需要MidAmerican及其股东投入大量资金。如何运作取决于我们是否有适当的监管契约,正如你所强调的。

如果再看看内华达州,我们在那里拥有两个公用事业公司,覆盖了内华达州的大部分地区。如果在类似的时间框架内看那个公用事业公司的基础需求,比如说进入2030年代后期,基础需求将增长三倍。

必须投入数十亿甚至数百亿美元。我们的收费基础将从现在的水平(已经不低)可能增加至少60亿到100亿美元。这再次需要与州及其政策保持一致,以及对我们基础资本和资本回报的合理回收。

所以当我们谈到野火,那是一个重大挑战,因为这是我们第一次围绕我们的一个公用事业公司进行大量讨论——第一,经历与野火相关的重大损失。这些成本中多大比例能够得到回收?

这正是我们正在进行的对话。这能正常运作吗?

当我想到野火,已经有很多索赔,上周还有一笔300亿美元的新索赔。我们不会掉以轻心。但这是对已有诉讼的追加索赔。

当我想到PacifiCorp,我们处于一个境地——首先,所有这些诉讼都将受到挑战,因为其依据,至少我们相信,有些地方是没有根据的。我们将继续挑战。正如沃伦在信中所说,这将需要很多年才能解决。

但如果你想想PacifiCorp和那里的诉讼,第一,我们必须改变如何思考和运营这些资产。因为我们有一个监管——我们与所有州的监管机构合作了多年,基本目标是保持供电。

我们的团队和员工日复一日地努力保持供电,通过风暴,不幸的是包括2020年的火灾。他们的本能不是关闭电源。本能是保持供电,让医院、消防站能够响应。

在他们的脑海里,或者至少在我们的文化中,没有断电的想法。

所以,我们首先要做的是退一步说,我们必须从根本上改变文化。不仅在PacifiCorp,而是在我们所有的公用事业公司。

我们首先要认识到,现在会出现我们需要优先考虑断电的情况。

这完全不同于我们过去100多年运营这些资产的方式,正如我强调的。

所以我们从文化开始。我们必须改变这一点。

第二,我们现在已经改变了我们的操作系统,这样如果有火灾逼近,我们可以非常迅速地关闭电源。

我们现在会关闭系统。一旦条件再次安全,我们会立即重新通电。但我们不得不这样做。

然后第三点是继续投资,以尽量减少火灾风险的方式。

但回到犹他州和PacifiCorp,我们确实面临的挑战是,在PacifiCorp内部,随着我们处理诉讼并继续运营该实体,它会产生一定量的资本和利润,这些将保留在该实体内并再投资回该业务。

但基本上,展望未来,如果我们要向该业务投入增量资本,进行增量投资,我们需要PacifiCorp各州的立法和监管改革。正如沃伦所说,我们不想把好资本往坏资本上投。

所以我们会非常严格。但现实是,有机会同时解决立法和监管解决方案。

我们实际上拥有的最佳例子,我认为是全国的金标准,就是犹他州。正如沃伦所说,这是一个我们乐于投资的地方。

它是PacifiCorp的一部分,所以对于如何操作存在一定的平衡。但在上一届立法会议中,犹他州实际上通过了一项法案,做了几件非常重要的事情。

第一,它设定了野火索赔中非经济损失的上限。

如果你回顾我们在俄勒冈州的野火以及你听到的索赔,其中存在经济损失。这些损害应该得到相应的经济赔偿。

但不幸的是,尽管俄勒冈州的立法和判例法规定不应判给野火非经济损失,却判给了非常巨额的非经济损失。

犹他州采取了一个非常主动的立场,说我们将为这些非经济损失设定上限,并再次营造一个——又回到了那个问题:是否存在一个你愿意投资的环境?是的。然后他们逐步建立了一个非常庞大的基金。

它被称为犹他州野火基金,用于帮助提供流动性和解决问题的能力。

所以,我们认为犹他州,包括从立法中产生的许多其他东西,实际上是未来的金标准。

所以这对伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源来说是非常重要的问题。

但与此同时,这也是一个PacifiCorp的问题。监管契约不被尊重的风险是一个更广泛的问题,我们将始终评估并谨慎配置资本。但PacifiCorp会处理好的,我在PacifiCorp看到了其他非常好的重大机会——我是说,在伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源。

沃伦·巴菲特:股本投资的回报率——多年来制定并实现的,特别是近年来,远低于美国工业总体上实现的股本回报率。所以,无论你赚取X、X加半个百分点还是X减半个百分点,这因州而异。有些州比其他州更有吸引力。

但无论你赚取X还是破产,这不是一个可行的等式。

我们不会把股东的钱——他们没有给我们让我们全部亏掉。如果X加半个百分点比X减半个百分点更好,我们可能会喜欢。

但电力公用事业行业永远不会像——我的意思是,永远不会接近——我们在其他领域拥有的那种业务那么好。

我的意思是,看看可口可乐、美国运通,或者最顶尖的苹果公司的有形股本回报率。

这完全是——你知道,完全是另一回事。

但在公用事业领域,交易——契约一直是——你获得适度的回报。

气候变化随之而来,导致更多的火灾。这不过是做生意的成本,并不意味着我们将来不能采取措施减轻火灾,你可以制定关于何时关闭电源的不同政策。

但有人会投入数千亿甚至数万亿美元,气候变化是其中的因素。

这在很大程度上可以通过公共电力或私营企业来完成。

我们当然可以拿出1000亿甚至更多,但我们不会把钱往水里扔。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: I will let Greg join with me in the answer on this.

But I would say our feeling is that Utah is actually very likely to treat us fairly, whether the action is in granting appropriate rates that give us the return we expected generally expected in terms of our own properties, or if they decide for some reason to go to public power. I think they would compensate us fairly.

In the 1930s, George Norris, the senator from Nebraska, just turned Nebraska into a public-power state. And our experience in Iowa would indicate that free enterprise has its role. And that we can run a privately owned utility company that will be more efficient for society than, at least in most states, people can do with public power.

But what has happened is that there’s going to be enormous amounts of money enormous amounts of money spent on power. And we’ve been we’re

if you’re going to do it with private owners, there’s nobody better situated than Berkshire to satisfy the portion but a large portion of the needs of the country.

And we will do it at a rate of return that is not, you know, it’s not designed to make us make us rich or anything like that. It’s a sensible rate of return.

But we won’t do it if we think we’re not going to get any return. It’d be kind of crazy.

And we’ve seen actions in a few states where some of the costs associated with climate change are not being regarded as costs that the utility shouldn’t incur.

Well, believe me, if it was publicly owned, they would’ve incurred it too.

But we’ll do what society tells us. And we have got the money. We’ve got we’ve got the knowledge to participate big in something that is enormously important for the country.

But we’re not going to do we’re not going we’re not going to throw good money after bad.

I don’t worry about my understanding is, and Greg’s going to elaborate on this now immediately, but I don’t regard Utah as being unfriendly to the idea of utilities being treated fairly.

Charlie?

Oh, Charlie. I’m so used to it. (Laughter and applause)

I had actually checked myself a couple times already. But I’ll slip I’ll slip again.

GREG ABEL: That’s a great honor.

Yeah, when we well, Warren you touched on it initially in your letter relative to the challenges in the industry. And then you’ve just alluded to the significant investment that has to go into the energy industry, the utility sector, for many years to come.

And I think if we start there, if I think of our different utilities, and we’ll definitely come to Utah and PacifiCorp. But if you look at the underlying demand that is building in each of those utilities and the amount of dollars that are going to have to go in to meet that demand, it’s absolutely incredible.

So when you raised it in your letter, it’s a really important issue. We have to have a regulatory compact that works between if it’s a public utility it has to work in concert with the state, Utah being an example. Or it ultimately becomes, potentially, a public power entity.

So just to set the frame a little bit, if I think of Iowa, which you mentioned, and the underlying we’ve made substantial investments there. It’s been very consistent with both the public policy that the state and legislature wanted, and they enacted very specific laws to encourage that.

But that utility is more than a hundred years old right now. And if we look at the demand that’s in place for MidAmerican Iowa utility over the next, say, into the mid-2030s, associated with AI and the data centers, that demand doubles in that short period of time.

And that happened and it took a hundred years-plus to get where we are today. And now it’s going to double.

And that will require substantial amounts of capital from MidAmerican and its shareholders. And how that will function is if we have a proper regulatory compact in place, which you’ve highlighted.

If we then go to, say, Nevada, where we own two utilities there, and cover the lion’s share in Nevada, if you go over a similar time frame and you look at the underlying demand in that utility, and, say, go into the later 2030s, it triples the underlying demand.

And billions and billions of dollars have to be put in. Our rate base will literally go from it’s not a modest level now but you’re talking probably an incremental six to ten billion at least of rate base going into that type of entity, which requires, again, alignment with the state and their policies, and a proper recovery of our underlying, both capital and a return on capital.

So when we come to the wildfires, that’s been a substantial challenge because it’s the first time there’s been a lot of discussion around one of our utilities, one, experience significant losses associated with the wildfires. What portion of those costs will be recovered?

And that’s really the dialogue we’re in. And does that properly work?

When I think of the wildfires, there’s been many claims and a recent additional claim last week for 30 billion dollars. And it’s we don’t take that lightly. But it is an incremental claim to an already existing lawsuit that’s in place.

And when I think of PacifiCorp, we’re in a place where, first and foremost, all that litigation will be challenged because the basis for it, at least we believe, there’s places where it’s unfounded. And we’ll continue to challenge it. And it will take many years to be able to resolve this, as Warren highlighted in the letter.

But if you think of PacifiCorp and the litigation there, number one, how we think and operate those assets have to change. Because we’ve had a regulatory we have worked with the states, across all our states, for many years with the fundamental goal to be to keep the power on.

And our teams and our employees worked incredibly hard to keep the power on day in, day out, through storms, unfortunately through the 2020 fires. The instincts were not to turn off the power. The instinct was to keep the power on to keep hospitals, fire stations responding.

It’s not in their mind, or at least culturally it wasn’t in our minds, to de-energize.

So, the first thing we had to do was step back and say, we’ve got to fundamentally change the culture. Not just at PacifiCorp, but across all our utilities.

The first thing we have to recognize is that there’s now going to be situations where we prioritize de-energizing the assets.

And that’s completely different than with how we’ve operated those assets, as I’ve highlighted, for a hundred-plus years.

So, we start with the culture. We had to change that.

The second thing is we’ve now changed our operating systems so that we can turn off the power very quickly if there’s a fire that’s encroaching.

We will turn off our systems now. And we’ll go the minute the conditions are safe again. We’ll reenergize it. But we’ve had to do that.

And then the third thing is continuing to invest in a way that allows us to try to minimize the risk of a fire.

But when you get back to Utah and PacifiCorp, the challenge we do have is, within PacifiCorp, as we go through both the litigation and through continuing to operate that entity, it generates a certain amount of capital and profits that will remain in that entity and be reinvested back into that business.

But fundamentally, as we go forward, we need both legislative and regulatory reform across the PacifiCorp states if we’re going to deploy incremental capital, make incremental contributions into that business. As Warren said, we don’t want to throw good capital after bad capital.

So we’ll be very disciplined there. But the reality is there are opportunities to both solve the legislative and regulatory solutions.

And the best example we actually have, and I think it’s the gold standard across the country, is Utah. So as Warren touched on, it’s a state where we’re happy we’re investing in.

It is part of PacifiCorp, so there’s a certain amount of balance there as to how we do it. But in the last legislative session that existed, Utah actually passed a bill that does a couple of very important things.

One, it caps non-economic damages on wildfire claims.

So if you go back to the wildfires we have in Oregon, and the claims you’re hearing filed for, there’s economic damages associated with them. And those harms should receive the economic damages associated with that.

But unfortunately, and even though there’s legislature and case law in Oregon that says wildfire, non-economic damages should not be awarded, there’s very substantial non-economic damages being awarded there.

Utah took a very proactive position to say we will cap those non-economic damages, and increase an environment again it’s back to that is there an environment where you want to invest in, yes. And then incrementally, they’ve created a very substantial fund.

It’s literally called The Wildfire Fund for fires in Utah that will help facilitate both liquidity and the ability to resolve the situation.

So, Utah, we believe, including the legislation that a lot of other things came out of it, is the actual gold standard as we go forward.

So very important issue for Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

But at the same time, it is a PacifiCorp issue. The risk of regulatory compacts not being respected is a much broader one that we’ll always evaluate and be careful how we deploy our capital. But both PacifiCorp will manage through it, and I see other very good and significant opportunities in PacifiCorp I mean, in Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

WARREN BUFFETT: The return on the the return on equity investment, it’s been promulgated and achieved over the years, has been particularly in recent years well below the return on equity that has been achieved by American industry generally. And so, whether you earn X or X plus a half a percent or X minus a half a percent, that differs by state. And some states are more attractive than others.

But whether you earn X or go broke is not an equation that works.

And, you know, we won’t put our shareholders’ money they didn’t give it to us to lose it all. And we might like it if it’s better when it’s X plus a half a percent than X minus a half a percent.

But the electric utility industry will never be as good as I mean, just remotely as good as you know, the kind of businesses we own in other arenas.

I mean, you look at the return on tangible equity at Coca-Cola or American Express or, to really top it off, Apple.

It’s just it’s, you know it’s just a whole different game.

But in utilities the trade has been the compact has been that you get a modest return.

And climate change comes along and it causes way more fires. That’s just a cost of doing business, and it doesn’t mean that we can’t do things to mitigate fires in the future, and you can make different policies on when you turn off the lights.

But somebody’s going to do somebody’s going to put up many, many hundreds of billions, maybe in the trillions, and climate change enters into that.

And it can be done through public power or it can be done through private enterprise to quite a degree.

And we would be certainly good for a hundred billion or more, but we’re not going to throw good money after bad.

7. 人工智能可能使欺诈成为”有史以来最大的增长行业”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们进行到第四站。

现场观众:你好,我是乔,来自旧金山。

您如何看待技术进步,特别是生成式人工智能,对更传统行业的影响?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我刚才叫四号犯了个错误,我稍后会回到二号。(笑声)

我对人工智能一无所知。但这并不意味着我否认它的存在或重要性或类似的东西。

去年我说过,当我们发展核武器时,我们把精灵放出了瓶子,这个精灵最近做了一些可怕的事情。

那个精灵的力量把我吓得要死。另一方面,我不知道如何把精灵放回瓶子里。

人工智能有些相似。它已经部分地从瓶子里出来了。它极其重要,而且会有人去做。

所以我们可能希望从未见过那个精灵,或者它可能创造出美妙的事物。我当然不是能评估这一点的人。我可能也不是二战期间能评估我们是否应该测试一颗我们觉得对美国绝对必要、从长远来看实际上会拯救生命、但我们也有人——我想是爱德华·泰勒——与爱因斯坦齐名,他说这个测试可能会以某种方式点燃大气层,导致文明无法延续的那种人。

我们决定把精灵放出瓶子,它实现了即时目标。但这是否会改变社会的未来,我们将后见分晓。

现在人工智能,我有一次经历确实让我有些紧张。我来解释一下。

最近——相当近期——我看到屏幕上有一个我面前的图像,那是我,用我的声音,穿着我穿的那种衣服。我的妻子或女儿都无法察觉任何差异。它正在传递一条绝不是来自我的信息。

所以当你想到诈骗的潜力时,如果你能复制连我都无法区分的图像,说需要钱,你是我的女儿,我刚出了车祸,需要汇5万美元。

我是说,诈骗一直是美国社会的一部分。但如果我对投资诈骗感兴趣,这将是有史以来最大的增长行业。

它以某种方式被赋能——显然AI也有做好事的潜力,但根据我最近看到的那次经历,我不知道如何——我几乎要把钱汇给某个疯狂国家的我自己。(笑声)

所以对于世界如何处理它,我没有任何建议,因为我认为我们不知道如何处理我们在核精灵方面所做的。

但我确实认为,作为一个对此一窍不通的人,它有巨大的做好事的潜力,也有巨大的做坏事的潜力,我只是不知道结果如何。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. I made a mistake in calling on four, but I’ll get back to two later on. (Laughs)

The I don’t know anything about AI. But I do I do have I don’t that doesn’t mean I deny its existence or importance or anything of the sort.

And last year I said, you know, that we let the genie out of the bottle when we developed nuclear weapons, and that genie has been doing some terrible things lately.

And the power of that genie is what, you know, scares the hell out of me. And on, the other hand, I don’t know any way to get the genie back in the bottle.

And AI is somewhat similar. It’s out it’s part-way out of the bottle. And it’s enormously important, and it’s going to be done by somebody.

So we may wish we’d never seen that genie or it may do wonderful things. And I’m certainly not the person that can evaluate that. And I probably wouldn’t have been the person that could’ve evaluated during World War II whether we tested a 20,000-ton bomb that we felt was absolutely necessary for the United States and would actually save lives in the long run, but where we also had Edmund [Edward] Teller, I think it was, it was on a parallel with Einstein, in terms of saying, you may, with this test, ignite the atmosphere in such a way that civilization doesn’t continue.

And we decided to let the genie out of the bottle, and it accomplished the immediate objective. But whether it’s going to change the future of society, we will find out later.

Now AI, I had one experience that does make me a little nervous. And I’ll just explain it.

Very recently fairly recently I saw an image in front of my eyes on the screen, and it was me, and it was my voice and wearing the kind of clothes I wear. And my wife or my daughter wouldn’t have been able to detect any difference. And it was delivering a message that no way came from me.

So it when you think of the potential for scamming people, if you can reproduce images that I can’t even tell, that say, I need money, you know, it’s your daughter, I’ve just had a car crash. I need fifty thousand dollars wired.

I mean, scamming has always been part of the American scene. But this would make me, if I was interested in investing in scamming, it’s going to be the growth industry of all time.

And it’s enabled in a way you know, obviously AI has potential for good things, too, but I don’t know how you based on the one I saw recently, I practically would send money to myself over in some crazy country. (Laughter)

So I don’t have any advice on how the world handles it because I don’t think we know how to handle what we did with the nuclear genie.

But I do think, as someone who doesn’t understand a damn thing about it, that it is it has enormous potential for good and enormous potential for harm, and I just don’t know how that plays out.

8. GEICO在使用数据技术定价方面正在追赶竞争对手

沃伦·巴菲特:我想向贝基提一下,阿吉特·贾因将不参加下午的会议,所以如果你有任何保险方面的问题想问他,现在是个好机会。

贝基·奎克:好的。下一个问题是给沃伦和阿吉特的。来自本·诺尔,一位明尼阿波利斯的股东,自1995年起就是股东。

他说:“在过去一年的一次采访中,托德·康姆斯说,在2010年第一次见你时,他告诉你GEICO更擅长营销和品牌建设,但Progressive是一家数据公司,从长远来看,数据会赢。

“但似乎你直到十年后让托德担任CEO才优先考虑GEICO的数据分析。

随着GEICO这样的业务部门老去并需要新的战略方向,我想知道伯克希尔放手管理的做法是否是弱点的来源。

“请回顾你对GEICO变动的思考,并解释伯克希尔是如何构建的,以便在伯克希尔CEO看到某个业务部门偏离战略轨道时做出反应。

阿吉特,我希望你能继续向我们通报你和托德在弥补GEICO数据分析短板方面的进展。”

沃伦·巴菲特:阿吉特,你想——

阿吉特·贾因:是的。正如沃伦过去指出的,GEICO面临的一个缺点是,在将费率与风险匹配、基于风险特征细分和定价产品方面,它做得不够好。这多年来一直是GEICO的劣势。

我们仍在努力追赶。技术不幸是一个瓶颈。但在这方面我们也在取得进展。同样重要的是,我们雇佣了比他们接手时在数据分析、定价和数据切片方面更好的人。

所以,是的,我承认我们仍然落后。我们正在采取措施缩小差距,希望到25年底,我们将能够与最好的参与者并驾齐驱,无论是在数据分析方面,还是在定价、理赔或任何其他驱动保险业务经济性的因素方面。

沃伦·巴菲特:我想补充一点,将费率与风险相匹配,显然在保险业务的每一条线上都很重要。我的意思是,你所做的正是决定一个给定的费率是否给我们提供了赚取一点钱的机会或概率,有时我们只承担损失一点的风险,有时我们承担损失巨额的风险。

但GEICO和Progressive——Progressive最近在这方面做得更好。

但我们在GEICO的基本优势当然是我们的成本比几乎任何人都低。这种成本优势是巨大的。我们已经将承保费用率控制在10%以下,很少有公司能与之竞争。

所以这根本不是生存问题,甚至不完全是盈利问题。但我们宁愿拥有X%的市场份额,而不是半个X%。

但大致上,我认为在三月份,我们并没有失去保单持有人,我们有1600万左右的保单持有人。我们有最低的运营成本。

所以这不是威胁——远非生存威胁。甚至也不是盈利威胁。

但另一方面,我们希望随着保险行业中以低成本交付的最佳模式一起成长。

我们现在有了一个认识,在1936年利奥·古德温创立GEICO时我们并没有这个认识,但当时有效的原则是,如果你能比竞争对手更便宜地提供优质产品,那么几乎每个人都会购买。

这是一个大生意。参与其中非常有吸引力,GEICO是一个非常吸引人的生意,拥有最低成本。它确实需要更好地将费率与风险匹配。

但我们的低成本掩盖了一个事实,即在一段时间内,我们可以不那么积极地推进费率与风险的匹配。

现在托德一直在为此努力,他取得了很大进展。但仍有工作要做。

但与此同时,我们不会萎缩,我们应该比大多数汽车保险公司的承保利润更高。

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Ajit, would you like to

AJIT JAIN: Yeah. As Warren has pointed out in the past, one of the drawbacks that GEICO is faced with, it hasn’t been doing as good a job as matching rate with risk and segmenting and pricing product based on the risk characteristics. This has been a disadvantage at GEICO for a few years now.

We are trying to still play catch-up. Technology is something that is unfortunately a bottleneck. But there again, we are making progress. And equally importantly, we have hired people who are much better than what they inherited in terms of data analytics and pricing and slicing data.

So, yes, I recognize we are still behind. We’re taking steps to bridge the gap and hopefully by the certainly by the end of ‘25, we should be able to be along with the best of players when it comes to data analytics, whether it’s pricing, whether it’s claims, or any other factor that drives the economics of the insurance business.

WARREN BUFFETT: I would add that equating rate with risk, obviously, is important in every line of the insurance business. I mean, that’s what you’re involved with is deciding whether a given rate offers us the chance or the probability that we will make a little money on it and that sometimes we’re only risking losing a little and sometimes we’re risking losing huge amounts.

But GEICO and Progressive has done a better job in that recently.

But our fundamental advantage at GEICO, of course, is that we have lower costs than virtually anybody. And that cost advantage has been dramatic. We’ve driven our underwriting expense ratio below 10 percent, and there’s well, there’s just very, very, very few companies that can compete with that.

So it isn’t it’s not in the least a survival question, and it isn’t even exactly a profitability thing. But, you know, we would rather have X percent of the market than a half of X percent.

But we roughly I think in the month of March we were just we didn’t lose policyholders, and we’ve got 16 million, or whatever it is, of them. And we’ve got the lowest cost of operation.

So, it’s not a threat it’s not remotely a threat to survival. It’s not a throat it’s not a threat to even profitability.

But on the other hand, we would like to be growing with something that is the best model around in the insurance business of delivering at a low cost.

And we now have a recognition that we didn’t have back when Leo Goodwin started it in 1936, but the same principle that worked then is that if you can offer somebody a good product cheaper than the other guy then everybody practically has to buy it.

And it’s a big business. You know, it’s very attractive to be in, and GEICO is a very attractive business and has got its lowest cost thing. And it does have to do a better job of matching rate to risk.

But our low costs have masked the fact that, for a while, that we could do without progressing as much as we should’ve in the matching of rate to risk.

And now Todd has been working intensively at that, and he’s made a lot of progress. But there’s still work to be do be done.

But in the meantime, we’re not going to shrink, and we’re going we should make underwriting profits than most companies in the auto insurance business.

9. 身边要有你信任的人,像查理·芒格那样

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我要回去——我想我之前漏掉了第二站。所以

那里有人吗?

现场观众:早上好。我叫塞巴斯蒂安·扎托特,来自德国慕尼黑。伯克希尔·哈撒韦在德国是一家非常受尊敬的公司。

我的问题是,今天您最信任的顾问是谁?是特德和托德?是格雷格和阿吉特?是您的妻子和孩子?您看重他们什么?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这要看他们是给我金钱上的建议还是其他方面的建议。(笑声)

我完全信任我的孩子和妻子,但这并不意味着我问他们买什么股票。(笑声)

但你知道,在管理资金方面,在几十年里,世界上没有比查理更好的人可以交谈了。

这并不意味着我不和其他人交谈。但如果我认为自己做不到,我就不会做。所以在某种程度上,我在投资上和自己对话。

我认为我的孩子们多年来变得聪明多了。所以在很多事情上我听他们的。

你知道,我听取女儿关于地方选举该投谁的票,因为她比我了解得多。

我会在很多事情上听取妻子的意见。我不会深入细节。(笑声)

所以这很重要。

如果你不生活在一个身边都是你信任的人、并且限制自己只与这些人为伍的生活中,那就没什么乐趣了。

我是说,从我二十多岁起,我就一直能够让我信任的人围绕在我身边。

我偶尔也会犯错,但随着时间的推移,他们会过滤掉。你会学会。

例如,当我找到查理时,在所有事情上,不仅仅是投资,我知道我有了一个——我会这样说,你们可以思考一下。

查理在我们共同工作的所有岁月里,不仅从未对我说过一次谎,他甚至不会为了让事情朝着他想要的方向发展而说半真半假的话或四分之一真话。

他绝对认为永远不说谎是至关重要的。

这偶尔会在晚宴上给他带来麻烦,比如他对一位女士说:“我更喜欢你以前的发型”或者”对面那位女士的发型更好看。”

我是说,他就是这样的人。但就拥有一个合伙人而言,我简直想不起我和查理的任何一次谈话中,他有丝毫误导我、或让事情朝他的方向发展或类似的情况。

所以,当你在生命中遇到这样的人,你会珍惜他们,你会把其他人抛在脑后。好的。(掌声)

原文

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it depends whether they’re advising me on money or on other things. (Laughs)

I trust my children and my wife totally, but that doesn’t mean I ask them what stocks to buy. (Laughs)

The but the you know, I was in terms of managing money, there wasn’t anybody better in the world to talk to for, you know, many, many decades, than Charlie.

And that doesn’t mean I didn’t talk to other people. But if I didn’t think I could do it myself, I wouldn’t have done it. I mean, it so I to some extent I talk to myself on investments. And

I think my children have gotten a whole lot wiser over the years. And so I listen to them on a lot of things.

You know, I listen to my daughter on who to vote for locally because she knows a lot more about that

11. 我们投资加拿大毫无不适感

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。现在我们终于协调好了,我相信是三号站。

股东:大家好。嘿,大家好。

嗨,沃伦。我是利亚姆,27岁,来自加拿大安大略省纽马克特市。

因为我的父亲带我参加了这次会议,所以我投资了伯克希尔。能来到这里我非常兴奋。

大多数27岁的年轻人都有说唱歌手作为偶像,但我的偶像却是沃伦、查理——我们将永远怀念他,还有你的表兄吉米,不幸的是他今年也去世了。这是艰难的一年。

作为一名加拿大人,和格雷格一样,我经常思考我们的加拿大经济以及你对加拿大经济的看法。

现在我们有一些被压低的银行股,我不知道你对这些有什么看法。

我也好奇,你九十多岁了,那些传言是否属实,你还能吃麦当劳。

我自己也喜欢快餐,但我总是好奇,他93岁了,还能吃这些,喝可口可乐。谢谢你,沃伦。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。嗯,我们这里有一位加拿大人,所以我们让他先回答第一部分。(笑声)

如果你看着我,你会看到我喜欢吃什么。我是说。(笑声)

请吧,格雷格。

格雷格·阿贝尔:好的。是的,我们很幸运在加拿大拥有许多业务。

这涉及我们的许多运营实体,然后,正如沃伦提到的,我们拥有股份的所有业务——我们在加拿大投资的企业——也都位于加拿大。

所以我们的存在感很强。

我们一直在考虑在那里进行增量投资,因为那是一个我们非常适应的环境。

沃伦提到了理解美国商业环境,我会把加拿大放在同一个篮子里,我们了解它,并且感到舒适。

我想说,加拿大经济与美国经济非常接近。因此,我们在报告美国和加拿大业务的各个企业中看到的结果并没有显著差异。

有几家,例如在能源方面,我们在阿尔伯塔省进行了非常大规模的投资。

但同样,这与该经济的增长方式非常一致,我认为它与我们在这里看到的情况也非常一致。

沃伦,你有什么要补充的吗?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。不,加拿大,很明显,那里的大公司没有美国多。

但当我们得到一个——就在前几天我得到了一个来自加拿大的建议,并把它发给了格雷格。那

当我们看到任何迹象表明有一个规模足以引起我们兴趣并满足其他条件的想法时,我们对于在加拿大投入大量资金没有任何犹豫。

只是,有些事情我们实际上可以做得相当好,或者说加拿大可以从伯克希尔的参与中受益。

我们几年前——其实没多少年前——就在那里做过。当时有一家金融机构遇到了问题,据我所记得,有三十多个,你知道,其他各种人都在那里争论不休。

与此同时,这个机构因为并非根本性的问题而接近边缘。我们办公室的特德·韦施勒去了那里。我大约是在周一听说的,特德·韦施勒去了那里,我们在几天内为一个接近崩溃的问题提出了一个解决方案。

所以,对于把钱投入加拿大,我们在任何方面、任何形式下都丝毫不感到不适。事实上,我们现在正在看一件事。

但是,你知道,他们仍然必须满足我们在资金回报方面的标准。

但他们没有——我们对该国没有任何心理障碍。

当然,有很多国家我们根本不了解。

所以,加拿大,当你有一个主要经济体——规模不如美国,但一个主要经济体——而你绝对有信心在那里运营时,这真是太棒了。


原文

11. We‘re not ‘uncomfortable‘ investing in Canada

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. We’re now finally coordinated to where station three, I believe.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello. Hey. Hey, everyone.

Hi, Warren. I’m Liam. I’m 27 from Newmarket, Ontario, Canada.

I got invested in Berkshire thanks to my dad who brought me down to this meeting. I’m so excited to be here.

Most 27-year-olds have idols who are rappers, but instead my idols are Warren, Charlie, who we’ll miss forever, and also your cousin Jimmy, who unfortunately had to go this year, too. It’s been a tough year.

As a Canadian, similar with Greg, I always wonder about our Canadian economy and what you think about the Canadian economy.

We’ve got some beat-down bank stocks right now, and I don’t know what your opinions on are on these.

And I also wonder at, in your nineties, if the rumors are true and you’re still able to eat McDonald’s.

I like fast food myself, but I always wonder, at 93, he’s still able to eat those and enjoy the Coca-Cola. Thanks, Warren.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Well, we’ve got a Canadian here, so we’ll let him answer that first part. (Laughter)

And if you if you watch me, you’ll see what I like to eat, I mean. (Laughs)

Go to it, Greg.

GREG ABEL: OK. Yeah, well, we are fortunate to have a number of operations up in Canada.

It goes across many of our operating entities, and then, as Warren touched on, all the businesses that we have a piece of, that we’re invested in, are up in Canada.

So the presence is significant.

We’re always looking at making incremental investments there because it’s an environment we’re very comfortable with.

Warren touched on understanding the U.S. environment business environment and I would put Canada equally in that bucket, that we understand it and would be comfortable.

And I would say the economy moves very closely to the U.S. So, the results we’re seeing out of our various businesses that report both their U.S. and Canadian operations aren’t drastically different.

And there’s a few that we’re on the energy side, for example, we make very substantial investments up there in Alberta.

But again, it’s very consistent with how that economy’s growing, and I would see it being very consistent with what we see here.

Warren, anything to

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. No, we Canadian obviously, there aren’t as many big companies up there as there are in the United States.

But when we get a I got one from Canada just the other day that I sent over to Greg, too. That

When we see anything that’s suggesting an idea that’s of a size that would interest [us] here and meets other requirements, we don’t have any hesitancy about putting big money in Canada.

It’s just and there are things we actually can do fairly well that or Canada could you know, benefit from Berkshire’s participation.

We did it some years ago not that many years ago but there was a financial institution up there. And they had a problem and they’d had, as I remember, 30-plus, you know, various other people that were kicking it around.

And meanwhile, the place was getting close to the edge for not a fundamental problem. And Ted Weschler from our office went up there. I heard about it on a Monday or something, and Ted Weschler went up there and we offered a solution in a couple of days to something that was getting close to the brink.

So it we do not feel uncomfortable in any way, shape, or form putting our money into Canada. In fact, we’re actually looking at one thing now.

But, you know, they still have to meet our standards in terms of what we get for our money.

But they don’t have a they don‘t have a mental we don‘t have any mental blocks about that country.

And of course, there’s a lot of countries we don’t understand at all.

So, Canada, it’s terrific when you’ve got a major economy not the size of the U.S., but a major economy that you absolutely you feel confident about operating there.

12. 阿吉特·贾殷已打造出能持久的伯克希尔保险业务

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。贝基?

贝基·奎克:沃伦,你刚才说在风险评估方面,你宁愿让阿吉特来负责保险业务,也不愿要其他任何一千个保险理赔员。所以我想跟进一个来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨市的马克·布莱克利的问题。

他说:“沃伦,多年来,你一直谈到阿吉特对伯克希尔不可思议的影响。

你经常开玩笑说,如果你和阿吉特在一条下沉的船上,而我们只能救一个,那就游向阿吉特。

虽然我们经常讨论伯克希尔下一任CEO的计划,但很少有人提及未来谁会接替阿吉特。

考虑到找到另一个阿吉特可能有多困难,我们应该如何看待伯克希尔保险业务的未来?”我也很想听听阿吉特对此的看法。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我想说我们找不到另一个阿吉特。但幸运的是,他比我年轻不少。

所以,我希望在你开始担心阿吉特之前,你可能得先稍微担心一下我。(笑声)

你知道,我们找不到另一个阿吉特,但我们有一个他创建的业务,至少其中一部分是竞争对手几乎无法模仿的。如果我在他们的位置上,我不会试图模仿它们。

所以我们已经将我们的一些优势制度化。但阿吉特,嗯,他的存在允许我们这样做。而且他做到了。

但现在,我们已经创建了一个在他1986年加入时不存在的结构。对于他或任何其他人来说,之前都不存在任何类似的东西。

保险是伯克希尔最重要的业务。

可交易证券很重要,但它们与我们的保险业务不完全属于同一类别。

如果阿吉特不管理,我们不会有同样的业务。但我们会有一个非常好的业务。

而再次,这要感谢阿吉特。

你知道,他1986年加入时我已在保险业,我1950年第一次去GEICO。我们1957年首次收购国民赔偿公司。我们在保险公司股票上赚了不少钱。

但我们需要一个阿吉特。

幸运的是,他在一个星期六来到办公室。他厌倦了做那些并不能挑战他智慧的工作。

我说,嗯,我们有很多挑战,所以——(笑声)

你知道,人无完人。所以你从未见过保险单或拥有过保险公司股票,但这是钥匙。结果证明效果非常好。(掌声)

阿吉特·贾殷:非常感谢你,沃伦。非常感谢大家。

但事实是,没有人是不可替代的。我们这里有苹果公司的CEO蒂姆·库克,我相信,他证明了这一点——

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

阿吉特·贾殷:并为许多后来者树立了榜样。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:这是一个很好的观察。

阿吉特·贾殷:话虽如此,我还要补充一点,我们的董事会不仅对沃伦级别的继任问题有意识,也对我这个级别的有意识。

每年,他们让我坐在他们面前,回答问题,并让我与他们分享我的想法,关于如果我被卡车撞了,业务运营会怎样。

我们回顾了我们拥有的各种业务。我向他们审查了一份我认为应该成为我继任候选人的短名单。

此外,我更进一步,确定了一个特定的人,如果我出了什么事,我会把业务交给他。

显然,这可能会改变,但我们相当认真地对待这个问题。我认为,最终,正如蒂姆·库克向我们证明的那样,这将成为当天最大的非问题。地球将继续绕轴自转。

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们知道我们——(掌声)我们知道我们会做什么。我们知道这是一个好的答案。但我们知道——我们不会有另一个阿吉特。


原文

12. Ajit Jain has built Berkshire‘s insurance operations to last

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Becky?

BECKY QUICK: And, Warren, you just said that you’d rather have Ajit running risk assessment at the insurance operations than any other thousand insurance adjusters in the world, so I’d like to follow up with a question that came in from Mark Blakley in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

He said, “Warren, for years, you have spoken about the incredible impact Ajit has had on Berkshire.

You’ve often joked, if you and Ajit are in a sinking boat and we can only save one of you, swim to Ajit.

While we often discuss plans for the next CEO of Berkshire, little is mentioned on who will one day replace Ajit.

How should we think about the future of the Berkshire insurance operations, given how challenging it may be to find another Ajit?” And I’d like to hear Ajit’s thoughts on this, as well.

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would say we won’t find another Ajit. But, fortunately, he’s a good bit younger than I am.

So, I hope you have to worry a little bit about me first, before you start worrying about Ajit. (Laughter)

You know, we won’t find another Ajit, but we have an operation that he has created and that, at least, part of it there are certain parts of it that are almost impossible for competitors to imitate. And if I was in their shoes, I wouldn’t try to imitate them.

And so we’ve institutionalized some of our advantages. But Ajit, is a well, he allowed his presence allowed us to do it. And he did it.

But now, we’ve created a structure that didn’t exist when he came in 1986. Nothing close to it existed with us or with anybody else.

And insurance is the most important business at Berkshire.

Marketable securities are important, but they’re not in the class, exactly, as our insurance business.

And Ajit we won’t have the same business if Ajit isn’t running it. But we’ll have a very good business.

And, again, that’s thanks to Ajit.

You know, I’d been in the business when he came in 1986, you know I’d first went to Geico in 1950. We first bought National Indemnity in 1957. And it was something that we made quite a bit of money in the stocks of of insurance companies.

But we needed we needed an Ajit.

And, fortunately, he came into the office on a Saturday. And he was tired of working at something where he really didn‘t it just didn’t challenge his intellect.

And I said, well, we’ve got a lot of challenges, so -(Laughs)

You know nobody’s perfect. So you’ve never seen an insurance policy or (laughs) owned an insurance stock, but here are the keys. And that’s worked out very well. (Applause)

AJIT JAIN: Thank you very much, Warren. Thank you very much, everyone.

But the fact of the matter is, nobody is irreplaceable. And we have [Apple CEO} Tim Cook here in the audience, I believe, who has proved that

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

AJIT JAIN: and has set an example for a lot of people who follow. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: That’s a great observation.

AJIT JAIN: Now, having said that, I will also add that our board is conscious of the succession issue, not only at Warren’s level, but also at my level.

And, every year, they had me sitting in front of them, answering questions, and having me share my ideas with them, in terms of what would happen to the operations if I get hit by a truck.

We go through the various operations we have. I review with them a short list of people I think ought to be candidates for replacing me.

And, in addition to that, I go a step further and identify a particular individual as the person I would hand over the case to, if something were to happen to me.

Obviously, that could be subject to change, but we take this issue fairly seriously. And I think, at the end of the day, as Tim Cook has proved to us, it’ll be the biggest non-issue of the day. The Earth will keep still keep revolving around the axis.

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. We know what we -(applause) we know what we will do. We know it’s a good answer. But we know isn‘t we won’t have another Ajit.

13. 查理·芒格在99岁时“达到顶峰”

沃伦·巴菲特:五号站。

股东:嗨。我叫安吉·埃努尼基斯(PH)。

我想知道,如果你能和查理多待一天,你会和他做什么?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯。(笑声)(掌声)

这很有趣,因为实际上,我确实多了一天。我的意思是,不是完整的一天,但他——

我们一直以我们对每天所做的事情感到快乐的方式生活。

我的意思是,查理喜欢学习。正如我在电影中提到的,他喜欢各种各样的事物。

所以,他比我广泛得多。但我没有特别强烈的愿望要像他那样广泛。他也没有特别强烈的愿望要像我这样狭隘。但我们一起做任何事情都很有趣。

你知道,我们一起打高尔夫。我们一起打网球。我们一起做所有事情。

你可能觉得有趣的是,我们从失败的事情中获得的乐趣一样多,在某种程度上甚至更多,因为那时我们真的必须共同努力,从中摆脱出来。

从某种意义上说,有一个伙伴一起从战壕里爬出来,比只是坐在那里看着十年前的一个想法源源不断地产生更多利润更有趣。所以——

不过,你知道吗,他真的骗了我,他活到了99.9岁。我的意思是——

如果你挑两个人,你知道他公开说过他从未做过一天的运动,除了在军队里必须做的。所以,他从未自愿做过一天运动。他从不考虑自己吃什么,你知道吗?你知道——

我们每天开始,查理对比我更多的事物感兴趣。

但我们从未对对方有过任何怀疑,绝对没有。

所以,如果我能和他多待一天,我们可能会做和之前日子一样的事情。但是——

我们不会希望知道我们只剩下一天了。(笑声)

不知道自己哪天会死是一个巨大的优势。

查理总是说,告诉我我会死在哪里,这样我永远不会去那里。(笑声)

事实是,你知道,他的思想遍及各处。因此,他不仅在99岁时对世界感兴趣,世界也对他感兴趣。这太了不起了。

你知道,在最后几年,我告诉他,我从未见过有人在99岁时达到顶峰,你知道——(笑声)

世界想来见他。我的意思是,他们真的想去北六月街351号。不管是——我可以列出一大串名字,但从埃隆·马斯克开始,名单往下,他们都想见查理。查理也乐于与他们交谈。

否则,我能想到的唯一另一个人是达赖喇嘛。我不知道他们有多少共同点,但是——(笑声)

他以自己想要的方式度过了他的一生。他说出了他想说的话。他和我一样,喜欢有一个讲台。

再说一次,我不记得他对我生过气,或我对他生过气。这种事就是没发生过。

给他打电话很有趣,在长途电话费还很贵的时候。近年来,我们通话不像以前那么频繁了。我们曾经每天长时间通话。

我们确实一直在学习。我们喜欢一起学习。但是,你知道——

我们往往变得稍微聪明一些,因为随着岁月流逝,我们有过错误和其他事情,从中我们学到了一些东西。

事实上,他和我在这方面想法一致,意味着当他99岁、我93岁时,这个世界对我们来说仍然是一个非常有趣的地方。

所以,我没有一个完美的答案给你,但我可以告诉你其中的要素——

有时,人们会对我或查理说,在这些会议中的一次,你知道,如果你只能和过去2000年左右生活过的一个人共进午餐,你知道,你想和谁一起吃?

查理说,我已经见过他们所有人了,你知道,因为他读过他们所有的书。我的意思是——

他省去了所有去餐馆见他们的麻烦之类的事情。他只是通过一本书。

他见过本·富兰克林。他真的很了不起。实际上,他已经没有其他人需要见了,因为他读了他们所有的材料。他喜欢本·富兰克林的作品胜过喜欢我的,但是——

但对于本·富兰克林,他只需要读关于他的书。他不必和他共进午餐或做任何此类事情。

但这是一个有趣的问题。你可能应该问自己的是,你觉得你想和谁一起度过你生命的最后一天,然后想办法从明天开始就去见他们。

尽可能多地见他们,因为为什么要等到最后一天呢。别去理会其他人?(掌声)


原文

13. Charlie Munger was ‘peaking‘ at the age of 99

WARREN BUFFETT: Station five.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. My name is Ange Enunikis (PH).

And I’m wondering, if you had one more day with Charlie, what would you do with him?

WARREN BUFFETT: Hmm. (Laughs) (Applause)

Well, it’s kind of interesting because, in effect, I did have one more day. I mean, it wasn’t a full day or anything, but but he

We we always lived in a way where we were happy with what we were doing every day.

I mean, Charlie liked learning. He liked, as I mentioned in the movie, he liked a wide variety of things.

So, he was much broader than I was. But I didn’t have any great desire to be as broad as he was. And he didn’t have any great desire to be as narrow as I. But we had a lot of fun, doing anything.

And, you know, we’d play golf together. We’d play tennis together. We did everything together.

And this, you may find kind of interesting, we had as much fun, perhaps even more, to some extent, with things that failed because then, we really had to work and work our way out of them.

And, in a sense, there’s more fun having somebody that’s your partner and digging your way out of a foxhole than there is just sitting there and watching an idea that you got ten years ago just continually produce more and more profit. So

It wasn‘t you know he really he really fooled me, though, on he went to 99.9 years. I mean

If you had picked two guys, you know he publicly said he never did a day of exercise, except what was required when he was in the Army. So, he never did a day of voluntarily exercise. He never thought about what he ate, you know? It you know

We started every day and Charlie had he was interested in more things than I was.

But we never had any doubts about the other person, period.

And so if I’d had another day with him, we’d probably do the same thing we were doing the earlier days. But

And we wouldn’t have wanted to know that we only had one day. (Laughs)

There’s a great advantage in not knowing where you‘re going what day you’re going to die.

And Charlie always said, you know, just tell me where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there. (Laughter)

It the truth is you know he went everywhere, with his mind. And therefore, he was not only interested in the world at 99, but the world was interested in him. It’s remarkable.

You know, they he he I would I told him, in the last few years, I’d never seen anybody that was peaking, you know, at 99. And -(Laughs)

The world wanted to come and see him. I mean, they actually wanted to go out to 351 North June Street. And whether it was well, I could name a whole bunch of names but just I‘ll start with Elon Musk, but go down the list, and they all wanted to meet Charlie. And Charlie was happy to talk with them.

And the only the only person I could think of, otherwise, was the Dalia Lama. I don’t know that they had a lot else in common, but -(laughs)

It was he lived his life the way he wanted to. And he got to say what he wanted to say. He, like I, loved having a podium.

And, again, I can’t remember any time that he was mad at me, or I was mad at him. It just didn’t happen.

And calling him was fun, back when long distance rates were high. And we didn’t talk as often, as the years in recent years. We used to be on, daily, for long periods.

And we did keep learning. And we liked learning together. But, you know

We tended to be a little smarter, because as the years went by because we had mistakes and we had other things, where we learned something.

And the fact that he and I were on the same wavelength, in that respect, meant that the world was still a very interesting place to us, when he got to be 99 and I got to be 93.

So, I don’t have a perfect answer for you there, but I can tell you the ingredients that would go into

Sometimes, people would say to me or Charlie, at one of these meetings, you know, if you could only have lunch with one person that lived over the last 2,000 or so years, you know, who would you want to have it with?

Charlie says, I’ve already met all of them, you know, because he he read all their books. I mean

And he eliminated all of the trouble of going to restaurants to meet them or anything like that. He just went through a book.

He had met Ben Franklin. And he really he was remarkable. He’s had, really, no one else to meet because he’d read all their stuff. And he liked Ben Franklin’s stuff better than he liked mine, but

But Ben Franklin, he just had to read about it. He didn’t have to he didn‘t have to go have lunch with him or anything of the sort.

But it’s an interesting question. What you should probably ask yourself is that, who do you feel that you’d want to start spending the last day of your life with, and then figure out a way to start meeting them tomorrow.

And meet them as often as you can, because why wait until the last day. And don’t bother with the others? (Applause)

14. 网络安全保险很热门,但目前风险太大

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,贝基。

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自欧洲瑞士的卡雷尔·德·根德。这是给巴菲特先生和贾殷先生的问题。

“随着世界上政治不稳定局势加剧,武装冲突和贸易紧张局势增多,网络攻击的风险也在增加。

您对网络安全保险有何看法?我提出这个问题,是针对零售、小型企业和大型公司,包括关键基础设施,如发电厂、港口、机场、核电站等等。

您认为网络安全保险有盈利潜力吗?主要挑战是什么?”

阿吉特·贾殷:好的。让我先开始。

网络安全保险近年来已成为一种非常受欢迎的产品。在过去几年里,它现在至少是一个全球100亿美元的市场。

盈利能力也相当高。我认为,至少有总保费的20%最终作为利润进入了保险大亨的口袋。

话虽如此,我们伯克希尔在承担网络安全保险责任时往往非常非常谨慎,实际上有两个原因。

一是很难知道单一事件可能造成的损失规模。网络损失的聚合潜力,特别是如果某个云运营陷入停顿,聚合潜力可能是巨大的。无法对其设定最坏情况的上限,这让我们害怕。

其次,也很难对我们所谓的损失成本或销售成本可能是什么有所了解。这不仅适用于单一损失,也适用于跨时间的损失。

它们一直被控制得相当好。每一美元保费中,过去四五年的损失,我认为没有超过40美分,从而留下了不错的利润率。

但话虽如此,并没有足够的数据可以让你确信地说出真正的损失成本是多少。

因此,在我们的保险业务中,我告诉负责运营的人,我已劝阻他们不要承保网络安全保险。

如果他们需要承保以满足某些客户需求,我告诉他们,无论你收取多少费用,你都要告诉自己,每次你写一份网络安全保险单,你都在赔钱。我们可以争论你赔了多少钱,但心态应该是,你没有在上面赚钱,你在赔钱。然后,我们应该在此基础上行事。

所以它被预测为一项巨大的业务。我的猜测是,在某个时候,它可能会成为一个巨大的业务,但也可能伴随着巨大的损失。我们的做法是现在暂时远离它,直到我们能够获得一些有意义的数据并依靠这些数据。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,你刚刚听到了为什么阿吉特是无价的,因为——

当你承保某物时,你真的想考虑你可能会损失多少。我记得第一次发生这种情况,我想是1968年,当时各个城市发生骚乱,我想是因为罗伯特·肯尼迪之死或马丁·路德·金之死引发的。我不确定是哪一个。

但无论如何,当你有一份保单时,你有一个限额。但问题是,什么算作一个事件?

所以,如果有人在一个城镇被暗杀,导致全国数千家企业遭受损失,如果你承保了所有这些数千份保单,你有一个事件还是有一千个事件?

在网络领域,这种困境比任何地方都更突出,因为如果你想一想,如果你知道,假设你每项风险承保1000万美元的限额。你决定这没问题,如果因为某个事件你损失了1000万美元,你可以承担。

但问题是,如果那个单一事件影响到一千份保单,并且它们以某种方式联系在一起,法院也这样判决,那么你所承保的东西,我们绝对没有得到合适的价格,并且可能毁掉公司。

我可以告诉你,大多数人在承保时都想参与任何时髦的东西。网络是一个简单的问题。你可以承保很多。代理人喜欢它。你知道,他们每签一份保单都能拿到佣金。

你必须有一个负责人,他明白你可能会面临你从未梦想过的风险聚合,也许比某个地方发生地震更糟糕,仅仅因为你有一大堆100万美元限额的保单。

我想说,人性就是如此,大多数保险公司会非常兴奋。他们的代理人也会非常兴奋。这非常时髦。也很有趣。

正如查理会说的,这可能是耗子药。(笑声)


原文

14. Cyber insurance is hot but too risky for now

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, Becky.

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Karel De Gend in Switzerland, in Europe. And this is for both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Jain.

“As political instability in the world is growing with the rise in the number of armed conflicts and trade tension, there is also increasing risk of cyberattacks.

What are your views on cybersecurity insurance? I’m asking this question, in general, for retail, small businesses, and large companies, including critical key infrastructure, such as power plants, harbors, airports, nuclear plants, et cetera.

Do you see a potential for profit making in cybersecurity insurances? And what are the key challenges?”

AJIT JAIN: OK. Let me start.

Cyber insurance has become a very fashionable product, these days. Over these last few years, it is, at least, a 10-billion-dollar market right now, globally.

And profitability has also been fairly high. I think profitability of at least 20 percent of the total premium, has ended up as profit in the pockets of the insurance barons.

Now, having said that, we at Berkshire tend to be very, very careful when it comes to taking on cyber insurance liabilities actually, for two reasons.

One is it’s very difficult to know what is the quantum of losses that can be subject to a single occurrence. And the aggregation potential of cyber losses, especially if some cloud operation comes to a standstill, you know, can aggregation potential can be huge. And not being able to have a worst-case cap on it is what scares us.

Secondly, it’s also very difficult to have some sense of what we call lost cost, or the cost of goods sold, could potentially be. It’s not just for a single loss, but for losses across over time.

They have been fairly well contained. Out of a hundred cents of the dollar, the premium losses over the last four of five years, I think have not been beyond forty cents on the dollar, leaving a decent profit margin.

But having said that, there’s not enough data to be able to hang your hat on and say what your true lost cost is.

So, in our insurance operations, I have told the people running the operations is I have discouraged them from writing cyber insurance.

To the extent that they need to write it so as to satisfy certain client needs, I have told them, no matter how much you charge, you should tell yourself that each time you write a cyber insurance policy, you’re losing money. We can argue about how much money you’re losing, but the mindset should be, you’re not making money on it, you’re losing money. And then, we should go from there.

So it is projected to be a huge business. My guess is, at some point, it might become a huge business, but it might be associated with huge losses. And our approach is to sort of stay away from it right now, until we can have access to some meaningful data and hang our hat on data.

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you’ve just made you‘ve just heard heard why Ajit is invaluable, because

When you insure something, you really want to think of what how much can you lose. And the question I remember the first time it was it happened, I think, in the 1968, when there were the riots in various cities because I think it was the Bobby Kennedy death that set it off or the Martin Luther King death. I’m not sure which one.

But, in any event, when you had a policy, you have a limit in that policy. But the question is, what is one event?

So, if somebody is assassinated in some town and that causes losses at thousands of businesses all over the country, if you’ve written all of those thousands of policies, do you have one event or do you have a thousand events?

And there’s no place where that kind of a dilemma enters into it more than cyber, because if you think about it, if you know let’s say you’re writing 10 million dollars of limit per risk. And you decide that’s fine, and if you lose 10 million, you know, for some event, you can take it.

But the problem is if that one event turns out to affect a thousand policies and somehow they’re all linked together in some way, and the courts decide that way, you’ve written something that, in no way we’re getting the proper price for and could break the company.

And I will tell you that most people want to be in anything that’s fashionable when they write insurance. And cyber’s an easy issue. You can write a lot of it. The agents like it. You know, they’re getting a commission on every policy they write.

And you’ve got to have somebody in charge of things that understands that you may get an aggregation of risks that you never dreamt of and, maybe, worse than some earthquake happening some place just because you have a whole bunch of policies with a million-dollar limit.

And I would say that human nature is such that most insurance companies will get very excited. And their agents will get very excited. And it’s very fashionable. And it’s kind of interesting.

And, as Charlie would say, it may be rat poison. (Laughter)

15. 太阳能和风能目前还不够可靠,无法完全停止使用化石燃料

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。带着这个乐观的看法,我们去六号站。

股东:早上好。这个问题是给沃伦·巴菲特和格雷格·阿贝尔的。

我叫玛丽亚·佩雷内斯(PH)。我是内华达州拉斯维加斯的一名退休人员。今天我作为内华达州一个组织的成员来到这里,该组织是拉丁裔环境正义领袖(听不清)的一个团体。

我几乎也在这里,代表了内华达州许多拉丁裔家庭,他们正在努力支付水电费,并希望获得负担得起的清洁电力。

我今天想问,为什么伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下的NV能源公司要新建天然气厂,而不是投资于内华达州(美国阳光最充足的州之一)的太阳能?

我能期待未来的领导层更认真地对待化石燃料水平的危险投资吗?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢你,玛丽亚。格雷格,你想说吗?

格雷格·阿贝尔:当然。谢谢。

所以,正如我们之前谈到的,NV能源公司有很多事情在进行。我认为毫无疑问太阳能对NV能源来说是一个巨大的机会,我们将继续将其作为一种资源来利用,并继续在那个公用事业和我们内华达州的另一个公用事业中进行投资。

我们现在也处于一个点,当你考虑能源领域正在进行的转型时,我们正在从碳资源向可再生资源转型,正如所指出的。但这不会在一夜之间发生。这种转变需要很多年。

当我们使用如太阳能或风能等可再生资源时,它们是间歇性的。我们确实尝试将其与电池结合起来。

但在目前的时间点,我们不能完全脱离碳资源进行转型。

所以,如果我考虑内华达州,在未来两年内,我们最后两个燃煤机组——嗯,实际上,在未来一年内,我们最后两个燃煤机组将退役。但我们正在用一个新的天然气机组取代它们,这确实是确保系统对我们客户保持可靠和可用性所必需的。

这是与州代表和我们的监管机构合作完成的,以确保我们能够每天、每分钟为客户服务。

我们在爱荷华州有很好的例子,在那里,有时我们100%的能源来自风能。我们对此感到兴奋。我相信我们在地球日那天做到了这一点。

每次我们有足够的风能来满足该州的需求。但第二天,如果风不吹,我们需要天然气资源,我们的天然气厂来填补这个缺口。

实际上,这就是我们在内华达州仍然面临的情况。所以,我们将继续向可再生资源转型,无论是内华达州的太阳能还是其他地区的风能,并结合电池。

但在可预见的未来,我们确实看到天然气作为维持可靠性和满足客户需求的重要资源。

并且以可负担的方式满足需求,这也是其中的一个重要部分。

所以谢谢你的评论。(掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:我们有资金在内华达这样的地方做任何最合理的事情。内华达州,我不知道,每个州对他们的管理委员会称呼不同,但他们可能称之为公共服务委员会或类似机构,他们正在决定他们认为在当前这个极其复杂的公用事业业务中,可以并且应该做什么,以在避免出乱子、不让灯熄灭的情况下,朝着不同的方向迈进。

他们——我想他们很可能非常同意你的观点,玛丽亚,他们想去哪里。但他们不能明天就做到,你知道,因为间歇性问题。

他们的工作是确保灯一直亮着。他们的工作也是向更好的能源来源迈进。但太阳能永远不会成为唯一的电力来源,因为——嗯,格雷格可能比我知道更多,除非在存储等方面取得真正的突破。

格雷格·阿贝尔:对。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

格雷格·阿贝尔:是的,一般来说,现在一个电池,要以经济的方式做到这一点,是一个四小时的电池。当你考虑到没有阳光可用的时间时,这是一个挑战。

现在,有很多技术进步。这正在延伸。你向很多事情投入资金,你可以实现一些事情。

但现实是,在可靠性之间有一个谨慎的平衡,同时也要平衡,正如所指出的,费率确实很重要,客户支付多少也很重要。

所以,既要提供可靠性,又要以可负担的方式做到这一点,这是一个微妙的平衡。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我的朋友比尔·盖茨——他正在努力缩短或延长电池的工作时间。

所以有一些非常聪明的人在研究这个。但这不是你一夜之间就能做到的事情。我能理解为什么人们希望它一夜之间完成。

但这将需要大量的资金。这将需要大量的好主意和像比尔和格雷格(不是我)这样聪明的人。我甚至不明白当我打开开关时灯为什么会亮。但那些家伙真的知道。有很多人正在研究这个。我们有足够的资金来实施。

但有些事情就是需要一定的时间。

我女儿讨厌我用这个例子,但这是真的:你不能通过让九个女人怀孕来在一个月内创造一个婴儿。我的意思是,这就是,你知道——(笑声)

你可能想要一个孩子,但是——

所以,有一些自然规律你必须遵循。


原文

15. Solar and wind aren‘t reliable enough yet to totally stop using fossil fuels

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Well, that cheerful view, we’ll go to station six.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning. This question is for Warren Buffett and Greg Abel.

My name is Maria Perenes (PH). I am a retiree from Las Vegas, Nevada. I am here today as a member of (unintellligible) Nevada, a group (unintelligible) Latine leaders for the environment of justices.

I am also I am almost here, represented in many Latine in families in Nevada who are struggling to pay their utility bills and want access to affordable, clean electricity.

I want to [ask] today, why is NV Energy, which is owned by the Berkshire Hathaway, building new gas plants instead of investing in solar energy with Nevada, one of the sunniest states in the country?

Can I expect to see future leadership take dangerous investments in the fossils levels more seriously? Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: And thank you, Maria. Greg, you want to?

GREG ABEL: Sure. Thank you.

So, as we touched on, with NV Energy even earlier, there’s a lot going on there. And when I think of there’s no question solar‘s a great opportunity for NV Energy and we’ll continue to utilize it as a resource and continue to invest in it in that utility and the other utility we have in Nevada.

We’re also in a point where when you think of a transition that’s going on within the energy sector, we are transitioning from carbon resources to renewable resources, as was noted. But it will not occur overnight. That transition will take many years.

And as we use the renewable resources, such as solar or wind, they are intermittent. And we do try to combine it with batteries.

But at this point in time, we cannot transition completely away from the carbon resources.

So, if I think of Nevada, in the next two years, our last two coal units are well actually, in the next year our last two coal units will retire. But we are replacing them with a new gas unit, which is truly needed to make sure that system remains reliable and available to our customers.

And that’s done in conjunction with our with the state representatives and our regulatory agencies to make sure we can serve those customers, every day and every minute.

We have great examples in Iowa, where, at times, a hundred percent of our energy comes from wind. And we’re thrilled with that. And I believe we did that, for example, on Earth Day.

Every we had enough wind that we could meet the demand of that state. But the next day, if the wind’s not blowing, we need our gas resources, our gas plants to fill that gap.

And, really, that’s the situation we still have in Nevada. So, we’ll continue the transition to renewable resources, be it solar in Nevada and wind in other areas, combined with batteries.

But for the foreseeable future, we do see gas being a very important resource to help maintain reliability and meet our customer needs.

And to meet it in an affordable way, is also an important piece of that.

So thank you for your comments. (Applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: And we’ve got the capital to do whatever makes the most sense in a place like Nevada. And Nevada, I don’t know, each state calls their ruling commission something different, but they probably call it the Public Service Commission or something like and they’re making the decision as to what they think can and should be done in terms of getting from a vastly complicated utility business moves toward something different without messing things up in the meantime, and, you know, having the lights go off.

They I think they would probably agree with you very much, Maria, that they what they where they want to get. But they can’t they can‘t do it tomorrow, you know, because of the intermittent problems.

And their job is to make sure the lights stay on. And their job is also to move toward better sources. But solar will never be the only source of electricity because it well, Greg may know more about this, but barring some real breakthroughs in storage and that sort of thing.

GREG ABEL: Right.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

GREG ABEL: Yeah, generally, a battery right now, to do it in an economical way, is a four-hour battery. And when you think of the time without the sun being available, that’s a challenge.

Now, there’s a lot of technology advancements. And that’s stretching out. And you throw dollars at a lot of things, you can accomplish things.

But the reality is that there’s a careful balance of the reliability and also balancing, as you as it was noted, the rates do matter and how much customers are paying.

So, delicate balance of both delivering reliability but doing it in an affordable way.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. My friend, Bill Gates he’s working on shortening up that or lengthening the time the battery works.

And so you’ve had some very smart people working on it. But it isn‘t something that you actually do overnight. And I can understand why people want it done overnight.

But it is going to take a lot of money. It’s going to take a lot of good ideas and smart people, like Bill and Greg not me. I don’t understand why the damn lights go on when I even turn the switch. But those fellows really do know. And there’s plenty of them working on it. And we’ve got plenty of money to implement it.

But there are certain things that just take a certain amount of time.

My daughter hates it when I use this example, but it’s really true that you can’t create a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. I mean, that‘s just, you know -(laughter)

You may want you may want a baby, but

So, there are certain laws of nature that you have to work with.

16. 佛罗里达州的保险市场很困难,但该州正在努力改善

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。贝基?

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自佛罗里达州达尼丁的里奇·麦克洛斯基。

他说:“沃伦和阿吉特,您能告诉我们您对佛罗里达州的汽车和财产保险状况的看法吗?作为一名居民,这两种情况似乎都失控了。既然佛罗里达市场管理如此混乱,这对伯克希尔来说是个机会吗?”

阿吉特·贾殷:是的。佛罗里达市场,无论是汽车保险还是房主保险,都经历了艰难的几年。

我们在佛罗里达州面临的两个问题,以及所有风险承担者在佛罗里达面临的问题,一是律师和该市场发生的欺诈数量一直在飙升,使我们难以给产品定价并盈利。

其次,风暴活动的数量,包括频率和严重程度,也非常严重,佛罗里达州的损失往往使风险承担者很难赚钱。

话虽如此,我们去年在佛罗里达州的业绩非常好。正如我们之前谈到的,我们去年增加了在佛罗里达州的敞口。幸运的是,没有发生什么坏事。所以我们很多保费收入直接变成了利润。

佛罗里达是一个大市场。佛罗里达是一个由该国其他地区补贴的市场。我认为这种情况无法经受时间的考验。

佛罗里达市场,立法者正在努力改善它。他们通过了一项法律,正在减少佛罗里达州的欺诈数量。

我希望佛罗里达能成为一个相当活跃的保险市场,因为归根结底,他们比一些有保险危机的其他州,如加利福尼亚和纽约,更相信自由市场。

所以,是的,佛罗里达有问题。价格会大幅上涨。但归根结底,我认为我们会达到一定程度的平衡,使风险承担者能够获得可观的利润,我们将在那里部署资本。


原文

16. Florida‘s insurance market is difficult, but the state is trying to improve it

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Becky?

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Rich McCloskey in Dunedin, Florida.

He says, “Warren and Ajit, would you let us know what you think about the car and property insurance situation in Florida? As a resident, both seem out of control. Since the Florida market seems to be so mismanaged, is this an opportunity for Berkshire?”

AJIT JAIN: Yeah. The Florida market, both for auto insurance and for homeowner‘s insurance, has had a few tough years.

The two problems we face in Florida, and all the risk bearers face in Florida, one is the lawyers and the amount of corruption that takes place in the Florida market is keeps skyrocketing, making it difficult for us to price the product and make a profit.

And, secondly, the amount of activity, in terms of storms, both the frequency and the severity, is also so severe that the losses in Florida tend to make it very difficult for a risk bearer to make money.

Having said that, we’ve had a we fortunately had a very good run in Florida last year. We increased our exposure in Florida, as we talked about, last year. And, fortunately, nothing bad happened. So a lot of our premiums that were in the top line flew straight to the bottom line.

Florida is a large market. Florida is a market that’s subsidized by the rest of the country. I don’t think those that’s going to stand the test of the time.

The Florida market, the legislators are trying to improve it. They have passed a law that is bringing down the amount of fraud that takes place in Florida.

And I hope Florida will be a fairly buoyant insurance market because, at the end of the day, they do believe in the free market more than some of the other states that have an insurance crisis, like California and New York.

So, yes, Florida has a problem. Prices will go up fairly substantially. But at the end of the day, I think we’ll achieve a degree of balance so that the risk bearers can make a decent profit and we’ll be deploying capital out there.

17. 人生建议:设定目标,并走上实现目标的道路

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。请七号站?

股东:嗨,沃伦。我叫克里斯汀·霍尼格·加西亚。我来自加利福尼亚州阿古拉山。

感谢您成为一名出色的老师,多年来一直向我们传授您的智慧。

您今天想分享什么建议,您认为每个人都应该听听?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,可惜你没有加上“我们其他人想听的”。(笑声)

好吧,我想说,如果我有一条建议,我会——嗯,你很幸运生活在这个国家,因为首先,你在这里拥有的机会在世界大部分地区是不存在的(掌声)。

但我真的想借用查理的忠告:思考你希望你的讣告怎么写,然后开始选择教育路径、社交路径,你知道,任何——(听不清)——你特定的情况,就交往而言,也许,当然在我那个年代,会是嫁给最能帮助你实现这个目标的人。

嗯,查理会说,你也为伴侣提供了类似的好处。

你知道,这个国家的机会基本上是无限的。

但是,当你回想几个世纪前,如果你要当牧羊人之类的,你知道,一百年后,你的孙子或孙女还会是牧羊人。

我的意思是,基本上没有什么变化。而在过去200年里,随着工业革命以及科学、教育、健康等等的结合,我们这些在座的人是多么幸运能出生在我们这个时代。

我们中的许多人也很幸运出生在美国。

你知道,你正进入有史以来最好的世界。你想要找到分享它的人,以及适合你的活动。

如果你足够幸运,就像查理和我一样,你会很早就找到让你感兴趣的东西。但如果你没有马上找到,就继续寻找。

我总是告诉学生,要选择那份工作——我的意思是,找到那份即使你不需要工作也愿意做的工作。有时你可以很早就找到它。有时你会经历各种经历。

但不要忘记你真正想要做的事情。这个世界上没有比这个国家更好的地方去做这些事了。在很多情况下,找到那个你想与之共度一生的人。

你知道,有时你运气好,很早就找到了。有时你会犯错。

但我会试着——以一种非常非常笼统的方式,我会试着弄清楚你希望如何回顾你的一生,并思考你自己,然后今天就踏上通往那个目标的道路,并预料途中会遇到一些困难。

但如果你以那种方式思考,你更有可能到达那里。(掌声)


原文

17. Life advice: set goals and take the paths that achieve them

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station seven, please?

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, Warren. My name is Christine Hoenig Garcia. And I’m from Agoura Hills, California.

Thank you for being an excellent teacher and imparting your wisdom to us throughout the years.

What advice would you like to share today that you believe everyone needs to hear?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, too bad you didn’t add you added that what the rest of us would like to hear. (Laughs)

Well, I would say that if I had one piece of advice, I would well, and you’re lucky you live in this country because just to start with, because you’ve got opportunities here that wouldn’t exist in (applause) much of the world.

But I would like I would like really sort of use Charlie’s advice of thinking how you would like your obituary to read and then start selecting the educational paths, the social paths, you know, the whatever -(unintelligible) that your particular situation, in terms of associating, and perhaps certainly in my day, it would have been marrying the person that would best help you do that.

Well, Charlie would say you are offering some similar benefit to the partner.

And, you know, the opportunity in this country is, you know, it‘s basically limitless.

But when you think of going back not that many centuries, you know, if you were going to be a shepherd or something like that, you know, a hundred years from now, you know, your grandson was granddaughter was going to be a shepherd.

I mean, nothing really happened. And what has happened in the last 200 years with the combination of the Industrial Revolution and whether it’s science or education or health, or you name it, we are so lucky to be born when we were, the people in this room.

And many of us were lucky enough to be born in the United States as well.

You know, you you‘ve had the you’re entering the best world that’s ever existed. And you want to find the people to share it with and the activities to participate in that fit you.

And if you get lucky, like Charlie and I did, you find things that interest you young. But if you don’t find them right away, you keep looking.

And I always tell students to take the job that you I mean, find the job that you want would like to have if you didn’t need a job. And sometimes you can find that very early. And sometimes sometimes you go through various experiences.

But don’t forget what you‘re trying actually are trying to do. And there’s no place to do it like this country. And find the person that you like to share your life with, in many cases.

And, you know, sometimes you get lucky and do that early. And sometimes you make mistakes.

But I would I would try to you know, in a very, very general way, I would try to figure out how you’d want to look back on your life and think about yourself and start today to go on the path that leads to that goal and expect some difficulties along the way.

But if you’re thinking that way, you’re more likely to get there. (Applause)

18. 格雷格·阿贝尔现在直接与伯克希尔的经理们合作

沃伦·巴菲特:贝基。

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自德国汉堡的阿克塞尔·迈耶西克。

自从格雷格·阿贝尔和阿吉特·贾殷成为副董事长以来,伯克希尔的运营CEO们有什么变化?例如,运营CEO们还能直接联系沃伦·巴菲特吗?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,答案可能会让你惊讶。但是绝大多数情况下,运营高管们——他们更愿意与格雷格或阿吉特交谈。(笑声)

这可以理解,因为我实际上做得不多。而且我的工作效率不像30年或40年前那样高。

我不像我们规模较小、我一天能完成更多事情时那样了解经理们了。

当你有了像格雷格和阿吉特这样的人,为什么还要来找我呢,基本上?(笑声)

所以效果非常好。

我几乎想象不出有什么能比这更好。因为格雷格一年能完成——我的意思是,他见到他们更多的人,更了解他们的问题,可以给他们建议。他有惊人的精力。

在保险方面,没有人比阿吉特更有智慧。他们在保险方面可以接触到他。

现在,在他们获得这些头衔之前,他们就能接触到。而对于格雷格来说,当他成为负责除保险外几乎所有事务的副董事长时,他的职责范围大大扩展了。

所以,如果你对我们管辖范围内的经理们进行民意调查(这有很多人),他们会更倾向于这样,除非像少数人那样,他们没有足够关注自己的业务。而我对此不会采取任何行动。但格雷格会。他们仍然喜欢他这样做。

他可以很好地传递消息给那些——

你知道,如果你有20个孩子并且非常富有,总会有一些孩子无论如何都会成为进取者。也会有一些不会。而我们是一个非常非常富有的公司。

我们没有对得过且过的人非常严厉的历史。我们有过一些这样的人。

格雷格会对此采取措施。而查理和我不会。不是因为不知道应该做,而是因为我们自己做得太好了。(笑声)

只是我们不会——我们不会付出努力。我们不想那样改变我们的生活。此外,我们在身体上等各方面都慢了下来。

所以,我想说,我接到的经理们的电话数量基本上接近零。格雷格在处理这些。

我不太清楚他是怎么做到的。但我可以告诉你,我们找对了人。

至于阿吉特,他身体上的走动少一些。保险行业的人多年来显然更习惯于与阿吉特共事。

所以,我不会说改变头衔真的改变了太多。因为他本来就负责保险。所以,你知道,你可以去商学院,他们能给出比我刚才给出的好得多的答案。但这就是我们在伯克希尔的做法。(笑声)

贝基·奎克:阿吉特举起了手。

阿吉特·贾殷:是的,如果我可以补充一点。从我个人的角度来看,过渡进行得非常非常好。

但我认为这真的要归功于沃伦处理情况的方式。我的意思是,在宣布过渡之后,很多运营经理过去习惯就各种问题直接打电话给沃伦。

过渡后,当他们继续这样做时,沃伦会非常巧妙地,以他的方式处理他们,使他不会回答他们寻求的东西,但同时让他们感觉良好,告诉他们他很高兴听到他们的声音并与他们交谈。

所以结果,你知道,过渡发生了,人们明白了这个信息。他们明白了信息,并且对此非常配合。就今天而言,这已经不成问题了。

格雷格·阿贝尔:阿吉特,我可能会补充一点——(掌声)是的,阿吉特,我唯一想补充的是,我们在非保险和保险领域都拥有一批非常出色的经理。

是的,沃伦让事情变得难以置信地简单,但他们也如此。这是一个非常顺利的过渡,因为他们非常关心伯克希尔。他们非常关心文化。他们非常希望它取得成功。

我们很幸运拥有这些保险和非保险领域的经理。所以,谢谢你们。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的——(掌声)格雷格所说的是,在某些情况下,他们实际上比我给予他们更多的是希望得到指导。

你知道,我的意思是,我只是坐在那里读《华尔街日报》或其他什么。而格雷格——我不知道,他的一天里无论如何都有超过24小时,你知道?

我只是不知道他是如何覆盖他所做的领域的。但他对人们了解得更多。

在判断业务的吸引力和做出资本决策等方面,我们有同样的感觉。但他愿意工作。

我的意思是,你知道,反正我也做不了那么多事情了。你知道,我过去几个小时能完成的事情,现在可能需要八个小时。我只是阅读速度没以前快了等等。

但一切运作得非常好。这个机构,如果我出了什么事,第二天也会运作得非常出色。

我没有接到任何电话。我们可以搞点什么,比如弄个答录机,让人们以为我还在,你知道,之类的——(笑声)

所以不管怎样,这比你在商学院学到的要少得多。但这就是我们在伯克希尔的做法。


原文

18. Greg Abel is now working directly with Berkshire‘s managers

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky.

BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Axel Meyersiek in Hamburg, Germany.

What has changed for Berkshire’s operating CEOs since Greg Abel and Ajit Jain became vice chairmen? For example, can and do the operating CEOs still reach out to Warren Buffett directly?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that‘s the answer might surprise you. But they overwhelmingly, the operating executives, well they prefer to talk to Greg or to Ajit. (Laughs)

And that’s understandable because I don’t really do much. And I don’t operate at the same level of efficiency that I would have 30 years ago or 40 years ago.

I don’t know the managers as well as I would have when we were smaller and when I could get more accomplished in a day than I can now.

And you‘ve got when you’ve got somebody like Greg and Ajit, you know, why settle for me, I mean, basically? (Laughs)

So it’s worked out extremely well.

And I almost can’t imagine anything working better. Because Greg, in a year, accomplishes I mean, he sees more of them, understands more about their problems, you know, can give them suggestions. He’s got incredible amounts of energy.

And nobody has more wisdom than Ajit about insurance. And they’ve got access in insurance to him.

Now, they had it before we stuck some of those titles on in insurance. Whereas with Greg, he much expanded things when he became the vice chairman in charge of really everything except insurance.

So, he is if you polled our managers that fall under his jurisdiction, which would be a lot of them, they they would much prefer it, unless, like a few, they weren’t paying as much attention to their business. And I wouldn’t do anything about it. But Greg would. And they still like it when he does it.

He can deliver he can deliver news very well to people who

You know, there’ll be some people, if you have 20 children and you’re very rich, you’ll have some that will be go-getters anyway. And you’ll have some that won’t. And we are a very, very rich company.

And we don‘t we haven’t had a history of being very tough on people that coasted. And we’ve had some that would do that.

And Greg will do something about it. And Charlie and I wouldn’t have. Not because we didn’t know it should be done, but because we were doing so well ourselves. (Laughs)

It just wasn‘t we didn‘t we wouldn’t make the effort. We didn’t want to change our lives that way. Plus, we slowed down in various ways physically and everything.

So, I would I would say that the number of calls I get from managers is essentially awfully close to zero. And Greg is handling those.

And I don’t know quite how he does it. But but we’ve got the right person. I can tell you that.

And with Ajit, he does less physical moving. And the insurance people are more used to working with Ajit, obviously, over the years.

So, I wouldn’t say that changing the title really changes much there. Because he was in charge of insurance anyway. So that‘s you know, you can you can go to a business school, and they can give you way better answers than I’ve just given you. But that’s the way we do it at Berkshire. (Laughs)

BECKY QUICK: Ajit raised his hand.

AJIT JAIN: Yeah, if I can add a comment. From my perspective, the transition has worked out very, very well.

But I think the credit really goes to how Warren has handled the situation. And what I mean by that is after the transition was announced and a lot of the operating managers used to be they were used to calling Warren directly on some issue or the other.

After the transition, when they would continue to do so, Warren would very skillfully, in his manner, handle them such that he would not answer what they were looking for, but at the same time made them feel good, and told them that he sort of enjoyed hearing from them and talking to them.

So as a result of which, you know, the transition took place, people got the message. They got the message and were very responsive to it. And it’s a non-issue as far as today is concerned.

GREG ABEL: Ajit, I‘d probably add -(applause) yeah Ajit, the only thing I would add is we do have an exceptional set of managers across both the non-insurance and insurance.

And yes, Warren made it incredibly easy, but so did they. It was a very easy transition because they care deeply about Berkshire. They care deeply about the culture. And they very much wanted it to be a success.

And we’re fortunate to have those managers in insurance and non-insurance. So, thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah -(applause) what Greg is talking about is they really wanted more direction in some cases than I gave them.

You know, I mean I just sat there reading the Wall Street Journal or whatever. And Greg is I don‘t you know, there one way or another, there are more than 24 hours in his day, you know?

And I just don’t know how he covers the ground he does. But he knows more about the people.

We get the same feeling in terms of judging the attractiveness of businesses and making capital decisions and that sort of thing. But but he’s willing to work.

I mean, you know, and I couldn’t get as much done anyway. You know, what I could do in a couple of hours, you know, may take eight hours now. I just don’t read as fast and everything.

But it’s working very well. And this place, if anything happened to me, it would be working extremely well the next day.

I don’t get any phone calls. You could actually we can rig something up, so we get some answering machine that people think I’m still around, you know, or something, in terms -(Laughter)

So anyway, that‘s that‘s much much less than you’d learn in business school. But that’s the way we do it at Berkshire.

19. 印度有“大量机会”,未来“更有活力”的伯克希尔管理层可以探索

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。八号站。

股东:是的,沃伦、格雷格和阿吉特。感谢您邀请我们。

您的教导不仅使我们成为更好的投资者,更重要的是,使我们成为更好的人。感谢您。

我叫拉吉夫·阿格拉沃尔,来自新泽西州。我管理一只专注于印度的基金,名为DoorDarshi India Fund。

我的问题与印度有关。印度经济和印度股票在过去5年、10年、20年都表现相当不错。它是世界第五大经济体,未来几年将成为第三大经济体。

我的问题是,伯克希尔是否在积极寻找印度股票市场的机会?什么会让您在那里进行有意义的购买?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,这是一个非常好的问题。显然,印度,你知道,我相信像印度这样的地方有大量的机会。问题是,我们在对这些业务的洞察力或联系方面是否有任何优势,从而可能促成一些交易,使印度的相关方特别希望我们参与?

我想说,这是伯克希尔更有活力的管理层可以追求的事情。

因为我们现在的声誉……伯克希尔不像在美国那样家喻户晓,但它在世界范围内是知名的。

你知道,在这一点上,我们在日本的经验令人着迷。

因此,在那个领域可能存在未经探索或未被关注的机会。我不是做这件事的人。但这可能是未来的机会。机会是存在的。

问题是,伯克希尔在实际上追求这些机会时是否有某种优势,特别是相对于那些使用他人资金、根据管理资产规模等获得报酬的人?

我的意思是,游戏中有很多人正在购买和经营企业,但并非真正拥有我们的理念。我的意思是,无论发生什么,他们都会致富。他们的报酬可能基于他们购买了多少,而不是他们买了什么。

所以我们将看看伯克希尔的下一个管理层如何在游戏中操作。幸运的是,你通常不需要等太久。

我感觉很好。但我对精算表略知一二,并且——(笑声)

我只是,嗯,我会这样说。我不应该接受任何四年的雇佣合同,就像这个世界上好几个人在这个年龄所做的那样,因为你不能那么确定四年后你会在哪里。(笑声)

好的。(掌声)

但你关于日本绝对正确,如果你精力充沛,有办法成为买家或人们特别希望与之交易的一方,日本就很棒。

印度也可能很棒。但印度和日本不一样。我的意思是,我不太能适应不同的文化。有些人非常擅长。几乎任何人都比我强。但我偶然遇到了一两个。

但这可能发生在,你知道,伯克希尔的第二幕。


原文
  1. ‘Loads of opportunities‘ in India that ‘more energetic‘ future Berkshire management could explore

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station eight.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yeah, Warren, Greg, and Ajit. Thank you for having us.

Your teachings have not only made us better investors, but more importantly better people. Thank you for that.

My name is Rajeev Agrawal and I am from New Jersey. I run an India-focused fund called DoorDarshi India Fund.

My question is related to India. Indian economy and Indian equities have done quite well in the last five, 10, 20 years. It is the fifth largest economy, and it will be the third largest in the next few years.

My question is, is Berkshire actively looking for opportunities in the Indian equity market? And what will allow you to buy anything meaningful there? Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well, it’s a very good question. And obviously, India, you know I’m sure there are loads of opportunities in a place like India. And the question is, do we have any advantage in either insights into those businesses or contacts that will make possible some some transaction that might where the parties in India would particularly want us to participate?

I would say that that’s something that a more energetic management at Berkshire could pursue.

Because we do have the reputation now. Berkshire is known not like it’s known in the United States but it’s known around the world.

And, you know, our Japanese experience has been fascinating in that respect.

So there may be unexplored or unattended to opportunity in that area. I’m not the one to do it. But that may be something that in the future it might be opportunities. There are opportunities.

The question is, does Berkshire have some kind of advantage in actually pursuing those opportunities against particularly against people that are using other people’s money where they get paid based on assets managed or something of the sort?

I mean, there are plenty of people in the game who are buying and running businesses that do not really have our philosophy. I mean, they they’re going to get rich no matter what happens. And their payment may be based on how much they buy rather than what they buy.

So we’ll see how the next management plays the game out at Berkshire. And fortunately, you don’t have too long to wait on that, generally.

I feel fine. But I I know a little bit about actuarial tables, and -(laughter)

I just well, I would say this. I shouldn’t be taking on any four-year employment contracts like several people are doing in this world at an age where you can’t be quite that sure of where you’re going to be in four years. (Laughs)

OK. (Applause)

But you’re absolutely right about if you were energetic, had some way to become a buyer or a party that people particularly wanted to do business with, Japan was great.

And India could be great. But India and Japan aren’t the same. I mean, I don’t adapt myself terribly well to different cultures. And some people are really good at it. And almost anybody is better than I am. But I stumbled into one or two.

But that could happen in, you know, act two of Berkshire Hathaway.

20. 伯克希尔将仍然对那些认同其文化的管理者具有吸引力

沃伦·巴菲特:贝基。

贝基·奎克:这是来自西班牙的拉斐尔·德尔·皮诺的问题。

伯克希尔取得了巨大的增长,这得益于,除其他因素外,其建筑师芒格先生,以及您,总承包商。我们都非常感谢您带领我们一路前行。

我们知道,您和许多其他人都花费了大量时间来确保伯克希尔的文化为发展这座大厦提供坚实的基础。

您目前也拥有一批非常有才华的、我们可以称之为分包商的人,包括阿贝尔先生、贾殷先生、库姆斯先生和韦施勒先生。

然而,在很长一段时间里,您一直拥有这样的优势:有才华的分包商希望与一代一遇的建筑师和总承包商合作。

您如何看待伯克希尔在承包商板凳需要再次更新时,将如何克服这一优势的丧失?这座宏伟建筑中可能有哪些翻新工程需要新的建筑师?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,这是一个很好的问题,查理和我显然经常谈论这个问题。

当然,我们不会——伯克希尔,只要它保持其现有的实体类型,就不需要经常吸引人才。

对于我们的董事会来说,如果选出任何一个人来运营这家企业却认为应该在65岁退休,那将是绝对疯狂的。

也许他们第二天就应该退休,你知道,当你了解到他们真正管理的样子时。或者可能发现你想让他们继续留任,直到他们真正开始受到老龄化的影响——这在不同的人身上发生的时间不同。但它最终会发生在每个人身上。

所以,我们非常有可能——如果董事们——这非常困难,因为他们将违背传统智慧行事,这总是困难的。

但我认为我们在这方面有合适的团队。如果他们选对了CEO,他们就不需要经常做决定。

那是董事们99%的工作。剩下的1%是,如果你做了错误的决定,你是否有好的方法来纠正它?

在我们目前的体制下,这极其困难。并非不可能。但这不太会发生。做董事的职位太好了,以至于很难去推翻某个人,特别是如果你能利用董事薪酬,并且你想加入其他董事会等等。

我们在董事会方面根本没有一个完美的系统。它运作得并不好——我不应该说完全不好——但它并不像人们可能认为的那样运作。

所以,我们——你知道,除非发生不测,否则我们已经把未来20年的问题解决了。

如果发生了不测,那么董事们需要在我们的组织内部找到一个他们信任的人,来维持我们在下一个20年期间拥有的特殊优势。

有各种低概率的事件。但你仍然需要考虑它们。我们现在就处于那个位置。

现在,如果你问我,如果今天格雷格出了什么事——每个人都说,不要坐同一架飞机。应该做的是不要坐同一辆汽车。飞机失事不那么频繁。汽车事故随时发生。

我见过所有公司在这一点上的政策,当你考虑真正的风险时,这些政策有点疯狂

标题:2024年年度股东大会

第三部分/共五部分

我的意思是,现在的情况是这样,未来也会继续保持这样。我们从一个只有2000万美元净资产的公司,发展到了现在的5700亿美元。

而且,你知道,可做的事情没以前那么多了,但我们在少数大事上能比任何人都做得更好。有时候,我们甚至会成为唯一愿意采取行动的人。

在这些时刻,我们得确保美国政府视我们为资产而非负担或乞求者,就像2008年和2009年那些银行一样,它们全都被一视同仁地贴上了标签。

但我们希望,决定我们未来的那个“标签”不会沾上污点。我认为,在这个位置上,没有比伯克希尔做得更好的了。(掌声)

原文

I mean, what it is now and continue to be what it is now. I mean, we’ve gotten from 20 million of net worth to 570 billion.

And, you know, we there aren’t as many things to do, but we can do a few big things better than anybody else can do. And there will be occasional times when we’re the only one willing to act.

And at those times, we want to be sure that the U.S. government thinks we’re an asset to the situation and not a liability or a supplicant, you know, as the banks were, we’ll say in 2008 and ’09. They were all tarred with the same brush.

But we want to be sure that the brush that determines our future, you know, is not tarred. And I think we‘re in the I don’t think anybody’s got a better position to do it than Berkshire. (Applause)

22. 伯克希尔持有大量现金,但“现在没什么有吸引力的”可买

沃伦·巴菲特:贝基?

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自约翰·海伦,他写道:“您坐拥1680亿美元现金,而您今天告诉我们,现在这个数字已经超过了1820亿美元。”他的问题是:“第一,巴菲特在等什么?第二,为什么不至少动用其中一部分?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我认为这(笑)很好回答。

我觉得在座没有人知道如何有效使用这笔钱,所以我们现在不用,即便利率是5.4%我们也不用,就算利率降到1%我们也不会用。

别告诉美联储——(笑声)——还是保持这样吧。

但我们只会挥棒打我们喜欢的球。如果有人试图打击每一个投球,或者因为过去两个球没挥棒就觉得第三个球必须挥棒,那只是——有时候——但显然,我想说的是这个。

我不喜欢现在管理100亿美元。1000万美元的话,我想我和查理也许能赚到高回报,因为我认为只有极少数极小规模的机会。

但如果我们有100亿美元,我基本上看不到比我们已发现的更多的机会。

确实,像日本那样的机会,如果公司当时有300亿或400亿美元,我们就能做,而且能获得很高的股本回报率。

但如果我现在看到这样的机会,我会为伯克希尔去做。

你知道,这就像我不是在进行绝食抗议什么的。只是这些东西没有吸引力。而且,嗯,有某些方式可以改变这种情况,我们拭目以待。

原文

22. Berkshire has a lot of cash, but ‘things aren‘t attractive‘ to buy now

WARREN BUFFETT: Becky?

BECKY QUICK: This question’s from Johan Heylen, who writes, “You’re sitting on a 168 billion of cash, which you told us today is now more than 182 billion dollars.” His questions are, “One, what is Buffett waiting for? And two, why not at least deploy some of it?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think that’s pretty (laughs) easy to answer.

I don’t think anybody sitting at this table has any idea of how to use it effectively and therefore we don’t use it and we don’t use it now at 5.4 percent, but we wouldn’t use it if it was at 1 percent.

Don’t tell the Federal Reserve that -(laughter) prefer it.

But the we don’t we only swing at pitches we like. And if anybody tried to swing at every pitch or felt that because they hadn’t swung at a pitch for the last two pitches they ought to swing at the third one or something like that, it’s just there are times and obviously but I would say this.

I would not like to be running 10 billion now. Ten million I think we could I think Charlie or I could earn high returns on, because I think there are just a few things that happen on a very, very small scale.

But that if we had 10 billion, we wouldn’t I wouldn’t basically see many more opportunities than we’ve found.

Now, it’s true that something like Japan we could’ve done if the company had had a 30 or 40 billion and we’d make we‘d have had great returns on equity.

But if I saw one of those now, I’d do it for Berkshire.

You know, it isn’t like I’ve got a hunger strike or something like that going on. It’s just that they things aren’t attractive. And there is well, there are certain ways that can change, and we’ll see whether they do.

23. 和解协议可能改变佣金结构,但房产经纪人仍扮演重要角色

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。10号站。

股东:巴菲特先生,您每年举办的这场会议太棒了。我叫肖恩·考利,是亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚州伯克希尔哈撒韦家庭服务公司的房产经纪人。

我的母亲辛迪、我的兄弟和两个姐妹多年来都一直在为伯克希尔哈撒韦家庭服务公司销售房产。

我们和公司其他7万名房产经纪人一样,热爱成为伯克希尔大家庭的一员。

巴菲特先生,美国家庭服务公司最近就我们的集体诉讼达成和解,上周支付了2.5亿美元佣金。

这个金额比凯勒·威廉姆斯多了大约1亿美元,比安飞房地产(即Better Homes and Gardens和Coldwell Banker)多了1.665亿美元。

作为伯克希尔哈撒韦家庭服务公司在多个市场的房产经纪人,也是一位连续15年来参加这次会议的股东,我之所以涉足房地产行业,部分原因就是这次会议。对于近期这次和解,您对买卖房屋有何看法?

我还想顺便问问格雷格和阿吉特,你们下次买房时会考虑伯克希尔的房产经纪人吗?(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,正如有些人注意到的,我不太常买房。(笑声)

但我当然会考虑他们。不过,发生这种情况的可能性很低。我非常感谢你加入我们。

但关于和解,我让格雷格随时了解情况,但我完全交给他处理了。

那么,格雷格,你想谈谈吗?

格雷格·阿贝尔:当然。首先,感谢您和您的家人作为房产经纪人为我们的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦家庭服务公司工作。

我认为这里面有几个问题。第一,毫无疑问,整个行业会因这次和解经历一些转型。

我们和业内所有其他主要参与者都达成了和解。全国房地产经纪人协会支付了超过4亿美元和解金。实际上,每个人都卷入了那场和解。

那为家庭服务公司和整个行业向前发展奠定了基础。

与该和解相关,有很多变化正在发生或被提议。但我认为有一件事你肯定会同意,房产经纪人仍然是这些交易中的重要部分。

这是我们在生活中做出重大投资的一次,拥有那样的咨询和指导至关重要。这实际上是我们业务和那些其他业务所依赖的。

佣金结构如何变化以及如何谈判——这实际上就是和解的内容——不再意味着买家会自动向卖方经纪人支付佣金。现在必须进行谈判。

这会产生影响,但我认为房产经纪人将继续在其中扮演非常重要的角色。我认为家庭服务公司和整个行业仍将保持高度相关性。

然后我想向我们的股东更广泛地分享一件事:这项义务由家庭服务公司承担,并且可以由其履行。

这是一个重要的条件,因为他们也在追究伯克希尔和伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司的责任,我们说,你们可以单独追究我们,但和解将由家庭服务公司承担,并成为其义务。他们决定了最终和解方案,并将据此推进。

那么,沃伦,还有其他评论吗?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,是的。在过去的……嗯,在过去的93年零几个月里,我卖过两套房子(笑声)。

我不知道……我买了一套,现在还留着,但显然我买了另外两套。

而且我没有压低佣金,即使……最后一套卖了大概700万美元。人们确实会在一定程度上压低佣金。

但我可以告诉你,我看了数据,我认为这个系统实际上运行得非常好。

我毕业的时候,他们有一种叫“FSBO”(房主自售)的方式。

所以我或多或少地观察了整个系统的运作。我知道我们经纪人的平均收入。我知道他们有时会花多长时间在那些最终没能成交的事情上。我不认为我们最终会有一个更好的系统。

但是,你知道,如何解决这个问题,取决于格雷格和家庭服务公司的人。

但我喜欢我们的经纪团队,我们拥有非常庞大的房产经纪人队伍,就像你一样。我鼓励我们在房地产经纪业务上的扩张。

你知道,当我们收购伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司时,它只有一两个业务,现在我们真的建立了一家相当不错的公司。我认为这是一项非常基础的业务。

你需要帮助。90%的人在买房或卖房时都需要帮助。

我一生都在观察它的运作,并与许多从事这个行业的人打过交道。法庭做出了一项裁决,我告诉格雷格以他认为最好的任何方式处理。我认为,我对我们的处理方式非常满意。

我对这个裁决感到惊讶,但我们在保险业务中也经常对裁决感到惊讶。

我的意思是,想想我们面临过的各种事情。当9/11事件发生时,我们从没想过那样的事情会发生,但它发生了。

然后我们不知道它是一个事件还是多个事件。我的意思是,如果他们关闭了纽约证券交易所,一大堆经纪人……各种人都会暂时失去工作或收入,那是一个事件还是多个事件?

嗯,商业中会出现各种各样的事情,我们只是见招拆招(笑)。

我对那个裁决感到惊讶。是在密苏里州吗?

格雷格·阿贝尔:是的,密苏里州。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。但是,你知道,我们也对一些其他裁决感到惊讶,我们将继续做明智的事情。

格雷格,你想补充吗?

格雷格·阿贝尔:是的。不,我想我唯一想补充的是,也许回到模式如何改变的问题。他问了一个问题,是的,我们总是——我不能代表阿吉特——但我们总是会使用家庭服务公司的经纪人。

但有趣的是,我在国外买过房子,因为我住在英国纽卡斯尔,在那里管理我们的公用事业公司。

在美国以外的地方买房是一种完全不同的体验。

在美国,我们的经纪人对整个交易承担巨大的责任。正如沃伦所说,他们投入时间和资本来确保交易完成。

当你完成交易时,他们会确保你买到的东西实际上是你认为你正在购买并最终得到的东西。

这在世界各地并不总是如此。有更便宜的模式,但老话说得好,一分钱一分货。

所以,我认为我们的房产经纪人仍然在我们的业务中提供难以置信的价值,正如沃伦提到的,它会生存下来。形式可能会有点不同,但毫无疑问它会继续蓬勃发展。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我们仍然希望在合适的价格收购房地产经纪公司。

我希望10年、20年后,我们在行业中的规模比现在更大。

我确实以700万美元卖掉了一套房子,而且我没有把6%的佣金压下来。我觉得我物有所值,甚至物超所值。

我天生吝啬,所以——(笑声)——我对此并不粗心。我只是觉得物有所值。

原文

23. Settlement may change commission structure, but real estate agents still have important role

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station 10.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett, this is an incredible meeting that you host every year. My name is Sean Cawley. I am a real estate agent with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services in Arizona and California.

My mother Cindy, my brother, and my two sisters all sell real estate with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services for many years.

We love being a part of the Berkshire family along with the 70,000 other agents that sell real estate for the company.

Mr. Buffett, Home Services of America recently settled our class action lawsuit regarding commissions for $250 million last week.

This is this dollar amount’s about a hundred million more than Keller Williams, 166.5 million more than Anywhere Real Estate, which is Better Homes and Gardens and Coldwell Banker.

As a realtor with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services in multiple markets and a shareholder who’s been coming to this meeting for 15 straight years that’s one of the reasons I got involved with real estate is because of this meeting what are your thoughts on buying and selling a home in light of this recent settlement?

And I’d maybe ask the note to Greg and Ajit, too would you consider a Berkshire agent when buying your next home? (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I don’t buy them that often as some people have noted. (Laughter)

But I certainly would consider them. But I’d say the probability of that happening is low. And I really appreciate the fact you’ve joined up with us.

But I’m going to in terms of the settlement, I mean Greg kept me informed but I turned it over a hundred percent to him.

So, Greg, you want to talk about it?

GREG ABEL: Sure. So, thank you for you and your family for being an agent and working for our company, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services.

I think there’s a few questions in there. One, there is no question the industry will go through some transitions because of that settlement.

Ours and the every other major player in the industry settled. The National Association of Realtors settled for more than 400 million. So effectively everybody was swept up in that settlement.

And it did set the grounds for the both Home Services and for the industry to move forward.

There’s a lot of changes that happen in or are being proposed associated with that settlement. But the one thing that I think you hopefully would absolutely agree with, the real estate agent is still an important part of these transactions.

It’s the one time in our lives where we make these massive investments, and having that counsel and guidance is critical. And that’s really what our business and those other businesses rely on.

How the commission structures change and how it’s negotiated, which is really what the settlement was, it was no longer that a buyer would automatically pay a commission agent to the selling agent. That how now has to be negotiated.

That’ll impact things, but I think the realtors will continue to be a very important part of that. And I think Home Services and the industry will remain very relevant.

And then the only thing I would share with our shareholders on a broader basis is that obligation resides with Home Services and can be met by Home Services.

And that was an important condition because they were also pursuing Berkshire and Berkshire Hathaway Energy and we said, you can pursue us separately, but that settlement will reside with Home Services and be an obligation of that. And they decided the ultimate settlement and will go forward from there.

So, Warren, any other comments?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, yeah. I’ve sold two houses in the last well, in the last 93-and-a-fraction years, (Laughs)

And I’ve I don’t know I’ve bought one that I still have, but I obviously bought the other two.

And I have not negotiated down the commission, even though well, the last one sold for 7 million or something like that. People do negotiate down commissions to some extent.

But I can tell you I’ve looked at the figures and I think the system has really worked out very well.

When I got out of school they had, you know, what they called FSBO, you know, for sale by owner.

And so I’ve been involved to some degree in watching the whole system operate. And I know what our average agent makes. I know, you know, how long they work on things sometimes that don’t materialize. It I don’t think we’ll end up with a better system.

And but, you know, it’s up to Greg and the people at Home Services how we work it through here.

But I like our agency group, and I we’ve got a very large number as you of real estate agents. And I’ve encouraged the expansion we’ve done in the real estate agent real estate brokerage business.

You know, it was just one or two operations when we bought Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and we’ve really built up quite a company. And I think it’s a very fundamental business.

You need help. Ninety percent of the people need help, you know, in buying a home or selling one.

And I’ve watched it operate all my life and been involved with lots of people who have been in the business and bought there was a decision in court, and I told Greg to handle it whatever way that seemed best to him. And I’m quite I’m perfectly happy with the way we’ve handled it, I think.

I’m surprised at the decision, but it we get surprised in decisions in the insurance business lots of times.

I mean, you know, just think of the various things we’ve faced. And, you know, when 9/11 came along, you know, we never thought something like that could happen, but it happened.

And then we didn’t know what was one event or more events. I mean, if you if they closed down the New York Stock Exchange and a bunch of brokers all kinds of people lose their jobs or lose their income for a while, is that one event or multiple events?

Well, there’s all kinds of things come up in business, and we just we play the ball wherever (laughs) we find it.

And I was surprised by the decision. Was it in Missouri that

GREG ABEL: Missouri, yes.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But, you know, we’ve gotten surprised by some other decisions, and we’ll keep doing sensible things as we move forward.

Greg, do you want to, yeah

GREG ABEL: Yeah. No, I think the only thing I would add, back maybe to how the model has changed, and he asked one yes, we’ll always I can’t speak for Ajit but we’ll always use Home Services agents.

But it’s interesting. I have bought a home abroad because I lived over in the United Kingdom, in Newcastle, running our utility over there.

And it is a completely different experience to buy a home outside of the U.S.

Our agents take great responsibility for the whole transaction in the U.S. They put, as Warren said, time and capital at risk to ensure the transaction closes.

And when you do close it, they make sure what you bought you actually what you thought you were purchasing you end up with.

And that’s not the way it is always around the world. And there are more affordable models, but it’s the old saying, you get what you pay for.

So, I think our real estate agents still provide incredible value within our business, and, as Warren touched on it, it’ll survive. The form may be a little bit different, but there’s no question it’ll continue to thrive.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We still will want to buy real estate brokerages at the right price.

And I hope we’re bigger in the industry 10 years from now and 20 years from now than we are currently.

And I did sell a house for 7 million, and I did not negotiate the 6 percent down. And I feel like I got my money’s worth and then some.

And I’m cheap by nature so -(laughs) and it is not careless about it. I just I got my money’s worth.

24. 如果特斯拉关于自动驾驶汽车事故更少的观点正确,保险公司可能会损失业务量

沃伦·巴菲特:那么,让我们继续,贝基。

贝基·奎克:这个问题是给沃伦和阿吉特的,来自杰夫·奥斯特。

“作为伯克希尔和特斯拉的股东,我想听听您对GEICO潜在财务影响的看法,假设埃隆·马斯克实现了他完全自动驾驶的目标。

“在特斯拉最近的财报电话会议上,埃隆说,‘如果你大规模地获得具有统计意义的数据,确凿地证明自动驾驶汽车的事故率比方说只有人类驾驶汽车的一半,我认为这很难忽视。’

“假设埃隆成功地将事故率比人类驾驶员降低了50%,那么汽车保险费率是否会下降以反映承保风险的降低,从而对GEICO的收入和浮存金乃至利润率产生不利影响?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,事实上,是的——如果——让我们只考虑极端情况。

假设由于某种疯狂的原因,明年美国只会发生三起事故。任何减少事故的事情都会降低成本。

但这比人们以前做的要难得多,但显然,如果这真的发生,数据会显示出来,我们的数据也会显示出来,价格就会下降。我会……

过去有很多人谈论过做这件事。

我的意思是,通用汽车曾经在保险业务中规模很大,当优步刚开始时,他们使用了一家现在——我想阿吉特会证实——这家公司现在濒临破产,不是吗?因为他们以错误的价格承保了风险?这是真的吗?

阿吉特·贾因:是的。是的。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。是的,保险看起来总是比实际容易。而且它非常有趣,因为你在开始时就能拿到钱,你知道,然后你后来才发现你是否做了蠢事,但是……

你知道,当有人递给你钱,你递给他们一张小纸片时,这是一个非常诱人的生意。

但真正了解你是否——我的意思是,如果事故减少50%,对社会是好事,对保险公司的业务量是坏事。但是,你知道,我们追求的是对社会有利。

到目前为止,你可能会觉得有点意思——我的意思是,每亿乘客英里行驶里程的死亡人数,我想实际上在我年轻的时候是大约15人,但即使在二战后,也只下降到大约7人左右。

拉尔夫·纳德可能为美国消费者做出的贡献比历史上任何人都多,因为那个7或6的数字现在已经下降到不到2。我认为没有他,它不会这样下降。

人们在疫情期间做的一些数据有点侥幸,非常有趣,因为他们没有立即开车——他们开的里程更少,但他们开得更危险,不是吗?

阿吉特·贾因:是的。

沃伦·巴菲特:对吗,阿吉特?

阿吉特·贾因:是的。是的。

所以,我想指出的关于特斯拉的一点是,他们认为由于他们的技术,事故数量确实下降了,这当然是可证明的。

但我认为同样需要考虑的是,每起事故的维修成本已经飙升。

所以,如果你将事故数量乘以每起事故的成本,我不确定总成本是否像特斯拉希望我们相信的那样下降了很多。

特斯拉一直在考虑直接或间接地承保保险,到目前为止,它并没有真正取得多大的成功。时间会证明一切,但我认为,自动化只是将大量费用从运营者转移到了设备供应商身上。

原文

24. Insurance companies may lose volume if Tesla is right about fewer accidents with self-driving cars

WARREN BUFFETT: So, let’s move on to Becky.

BECKY QUICK: This question’s for Warren and Ajit. It’s from Jeff Oyster.

“As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects to GEICO, assuming Elon Musk delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal.

“On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Elon said, ‘If you’ve got at scale a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let’s say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore.’

“Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50 percent versus human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risk, thereby adversely impacting GEICO’s revenues and float and perhaps margins too?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, the truth yeah, if it well, let’s just take the extreme example.

Let’s say there are only going to be three accidents in the United States next year for some crazy reason that anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce cost.

But that’s been harder to do than people have done before, but obviously, if it really happens, the figures will show it and our data will show it and prices will come down. I would

There have been a lot of people talk about doing that in the past.

I mean, General Motors used to be very big in the insurance business, and when Uber first started, they used some firm which now is I think Ajit will confirm they’re close to bankruptcy now, aren’t they, because of taking things on at the wrong prices? Is that true of

AJIT JAIN: Yeah. Yeah.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Yeah, it insurance always looks easier than it is. And it’s so much fun because you get the money at the start, you know, and then you find out whether you’ve done something stupid later on, but

You know, it’s a very tempting business when somebody hands you money and you hand them a little piece of paper.

But really knowing whether you’re I mean, if accidents get reduced 50 percent it’s going to be good for society, and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume. But, you know, good for society is what we’re looking for.

So far, this you might find kind of interesting I mean, the number of people killed per hundred million passenger miles driven, I think it actually was in the when I was young it was, like, 15, but even post-World War II it only fell to, like, seven or thereabouts.

And Ralph Nader probably has done more for the American consumer than just about anybody in history because that seven or six has now come down to under two. And I don’t think it would’ve come down that way without him.

There have been some kind of fluke figures of what people did during the pandemic, which are quite interesting because they didn’t drive immediately they didn’t drive as many miles, but they drove more dangerously, didn’t they?

AJIT JAIN: Yeah

WARREN BUFFETT: Is that right, Ajit?

AJIT JAIN: Yeah. Yeah.

So, the point I want to make in terms of Tesla and the fact that they feel that because of their technology the number of accidents do come down, and that is certainly provable.

But I think what needs to be factored in as well is the repair cost of each one of these accidents has skyrocketed.

So, if you multiple the number of accidents times the cost of each accident, I’m not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe.

Tesla has been toying with the idea of writing insurance directly or indirectly, and so far, it hasn’t really sort of been much of a success. Time will tell, but I think, you know, automation just shifts a lot of the expense from the operator to the equipment provider.

25. 请在下午场开始前就座

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们快到中午休息时间了。我只想告诉大家,我非常希望你们能在下午一点我们重新开会时回到座位上准备好,因为我们会播放一个很短的小短片,然后简单解释一件我认为会很有趣的事情——当然,对我来说肯定有趣。

所以,我想我们会在12点准时休息,我希望大家真的努力在一点钟就座并保持安静。如果你做不到,可以等几分钟,在大厅里观看等等。

但我们不希望一点钟的时候还有人进场或走动。就像纽约看戏剧一样,我们一点钟要讲的内容只需要几分钟。但我们不希望那个时间段有人进场。

原文

25. Please be in your seats for start of second session

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. We’re getting close to noon when we’re going to break for lunch. I just want to tell everybody that I would appreciate it very much if they will get in their seats and be ready at one o‘clock when we reconvene because we will have another very short little movie and we’ll just have a little explanation of something that I think will be of interest certainly of interest to me.

But it so I would like them we will break promptly at 12, and I would like everybody to really make an attempt to be in their seat and quiet at one o‘clock. And if you can’t do that, if you’ll wait a few minutes and watch in the halls all that.

But we will we do not want to be seating people and have people milling here at one o‘clock. And just like a play in New York or something we’ll it’ll take a few minutes and only a few minutes to cover what we’re going to at one o‘clock. But we don’t want to be seating people during that period.

26. 伯克希尔并非试图预测控制气候变化的赢家

沃伦·巴菲特:但现在我们继续到12点,然后休息到下午1点。我们去11号站。

股东:我叫汉弗莱·刘,来自弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

我去年问了一个问题,今天想再问一次。这可以被视为一个后续问题。

传统总有其道理。问题相同,但我们身处一个不断变化且截然不同的世界。

纵观全球趋势,零排放汽车似乎终于可能达到了大规模普及的临界点。

您在这个领域看到任何机会吗?无论是特定的汽车制造商还是相关技术?

补充一点,伯克希尔在能源、Pilot Flying J和比亚迪方面有非常重要的利益。谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。嗯,我希望你是对的。

到目前为止,大规模普及一直是一个不断变化的目标。但我希望我们能实现它。

但伯克希尔不会——我不认为我们在那个领域有什么特殊天赋。有汽车制造商,我当然不知道如何在那样的行业中挑选赢家。

但如果出现一些赢家,我会很高兴。但不要指望我们能预见谁是赢家,也不要指望我们能预测事情何时发生。

到目前为止,这显然是一个不断变化的目标,并且是社会面临的一个极其困难的问题。

也许是,也许是政府在一段时间内不太擅长解决它。

所有气候变化问题都有一个可怕的问题,那就是,实际上,美国,尤其是造成问题最严重的国家,然后我们要求更贫穷的社会说,好吧,你们必须改变生活方式,因为我们过去的生活方式就是这样。

你知道,这个问题实际上还没有解决。

你知道,这对我来说是一个引人入胜的问题,但我无法补充任何关于如何真正解决全球问题的见解。

我1930年出生时,世界人口大约只有20亿,现在的人口统计数据是80亿。

如果你在1930年问世界上任何50个最聪明的人,当你93岁时,世界的最佳人口是多少,他们不会说是80亿。

没有人会接近这个数字。但我们做到了。现在我们正在承受这样做的后果。

我们在美国得到了好处。我在某种程度上夸张了,但发达国家基本上得到了……

然后我们告诉一大堆其他人,我们希望他们改变生活方式,因为我们过去的生活方式以及他们的生活方式。

所以,我们将拭目以待。但这是一个在几百个国家之间非常、非常、非常难以解决的问题。

我真的没有什么可以贡献的。

原文

26. Berkshire isn‘t trying to predict winners in controlling climate change

WARREN BUFFETT: But now let’s we’ll go on till 12 o‘clock and then we’ll have a break until 1 o‘clock. And we will go to station 11.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Humphrey Liu, and I’m from Charlottesville, Virginia.

I asked a question last year and wish to pose it again. It can be considered a follow-up.

There is something to be said for traditions. It is the same question, but it is a changing and different world we are in.

Looking at global trends, it increasingly does seem that zero-emission vehicles may have finally reached the cusp of massive adoption.

Do you see any opportunities in this space, either in specific vehicle manufacturers or in related technologies?

As an addendum, I will note that Berkshire has very relevant interests in energy, Pilot Flying J, and BYD. Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, we will I hope you’re right.

And massive adoption has been sort of a moving target so far. But I hope we get there.

But Berskshire would not be I don’t think that we bring any special talent to that field. You’ve got vehicle manufacturers, and I would certainly not know how to pick the winners in an industry like that.

But I’ll be delighted if there are some winners. But don’t count on us foreseeing who the winners will be, and don’t count on us for predicting when something will happen.

It obviously has been a moving target so far, and it is an incredible problem that society faces.

And it may be that it may be that governments are not very good at solving it for a while. It’s

All of climate change is it’s got a terrible problem just in the fact that, you know, in effect that, the United States, particularly, has been the one that caused the problem the most and then we’re asking poorer societies to say, well, you’ve got to change the way you live because we lived the way we did.

And, you know, that really hasn’t been settled yet.

You know, it’s a fascinating problem to me, but I don’t have anything to add to how you really slice through the world.

When I was born in 1930, there were just essentially two billion people in the world population statistic now there’s eight billion.

Now if you’d asked anybody in 1930 if you take the 50 smartest people in the world and you said, what’s the optimum population for the world when you’re 93 years old, they would’ve not said eight billion.

There wouldn’t be anybody even close to it. But we did it. Now we’re reaping some of the consequences of having done that.

And we got the benefits in the United States. I’m exaggerating here to some extent, but the developed world basically got a

And then we’re telling a whole bunch of other people that we want them to change the way they live because of the way they live we lived and the way they lived.

So, we will see what happens with it. But that’s a problem that is be very, very, very hard to solve among a couple hundred countries.

And I really don’t have anything to be to contribute on it.

27. 卡罗尔·卢米斯曾短暂与泰·科布约会

沃伦·巴菲特:现在我收到了面前屏幕上的指示。

我想介绍一位在座各位都认识的人,因为她来过很多次了。

我的朋友卡罗尔·卢米斯,她现在……嗯,她将在6月25日年满95岁。你可以把礼物寄到我们办公室转交。

卡罗尔从1977年开始编辑伯克希尔的年度报告——(掌声)。

就是这样。(掌声)

我想提两点。

每年,我都会给卡罗尔一个小物件,放在她的手链上,是当年年报封面的复制品,颜色各不相同,诸如此类。

所以她现在有,从1977年到现在,多少?47个了。我想她把它们每10个串在一起。

但我一直想知道,如果她把它们都戴在一只胳膊上,那只胳膊现在是不是会比另一只长四五英寸(笑声)。但我相信她预见到了这一点。

但我想透露另一件事——我想透露——嗯,我想在卡罗尔在这里的时候再问一个问题,因为我确信几乎在座的每个人都和我一样,从小就知道泰·科布的职业打击率是.367。我的意思是,他是所有人中的领先者。也许那个记录永远不会被打破,泰·科布,.367是不朽的。

但卡罗尔有一个特点,可能你们大多数人不知道,她曾与泰·科布约会过。——(笑声)

卡罗尔曾在第六大道和50街的时代生活大厦办公,NBC就在街对面的洛克菲勒中心。

当时智力竞赛节目成了电视的热门。卡罗尔就像她那种人,午休时穿过马路,参加了50年代末的一个智力竞赛节目,他们给了她关于棒球的问题。卡罗尔全部答对了。

当然,她在各种事情上都像百科全书一样,所以她都知道所有答案。

然后她回到了她《财富》杂志的办公室。

某个时候,她接到了一个电话,听起来像一个来自乔治亚州的相当年轻的男子,他说,我叔叔是泰·科布,他想请你去“21”俱乐部吃午饭。

于是卡罗尔在“21”俱乐部和泰·科布吃了午饭,我想他后来又请了一次午饭。然后她决定不再继续。

你们中关注棒球的人可能注意到,在90年代,他们发现泰·科布打球时的统计数据有误,他实际上只有.366,有几次打数没有被计算在内。

所以,我想从卡罗尔那里知道的真正问题是,我想她也许应该告诉我们,如果她知道……我是说,我知道她不会……我知道如果泰·科布的打击率是.300或类似水平,她就不会和他约会了(笑声)。

但那个分界点在哪里?她会告诉泰·科布留在亚特兰大,别来纽约?

如果卡罗尔愿意……如果有人有麦克风,卡罗尔愿意就这个问题发表意见吗?这是我心中一直未解的问题,也是所有好奇的人心中的问题,只有她知道答案。

她和她的女儿在一起。她嫁给了一个很棒的男人,约翰·卢米斯,芭芭拉和她在一起。我敢肯定芭芭拉一直想问这个问题,但我——(笑声)——当你在家里时,这有点难开口。

但我是一个有点令人讨厌的家伙,会在很多人面前做这件事。卡罗尔?(笑)

卡罗尔·卢米斯:零。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:或者我们可以让芭芭拉猜。两者都可以

芭芭拉:她会……她会很高兴无论哪种方式,对吧?

卡罗尔·卢米斯:是的。

芭芭拉:你会去的……

卡罗尔·卢米斯:对。(笑声)

芭芭拉:谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:卡罗尔——(掌声)

卡罗尔是最好的商业作家。她来自密苏里州的科尔坎普镇。我不知道,整个地方大概有一千人。

她从未上过会计课程,最终却成为了美国最好的商业作家。

而且,你知道,她其实不想当编辑。我的意思是,她在《财富》杂志可以做其他事情,但她就是喜欢写商业故事。

就像我说的,没有人能接近她,而她是从零开始的。

但在1977年,我请她编辑我的报告,结果证明她作为编辑和作为作家一样出色。

多年来,包括今年,卡罗尔一直在编辑伯克希尔的报告。如果有人喜欢读它们,让我们为卡罗尔鼓掌。(掌声)

原文

27. Carol Loomis once briefly dated Ty Cobb

WARREN BUFFETT: And now I’ve got instructions from the thing the monitor in front of me.

I would like to introduce one person here that has you all know because she’s been here so many times.

But my friend Carol Loomis, who is now well, she’s going to be 95 on June 25th. You can send presents care of our office.

And Carol has edited the Berkshire annual report -(applause) since 1977.

There we are. (Applause)

And there are two points I’d like to mention.

Every year, I give Carol a little item for her bracelet that is a replica of the front page of the report that year, and they’re different colors and all of that sort of thing.

And so she now has, what, since 1977, what, 47 of them. And she I think she’s put 10 on each one.

But I’ve always wondered, you know, if she put them all on one arm whether one arm wouldn’t now be four or five inches longer (laughter) than the other. But I’m sure she foresaw that.

But I want to reveal one other I want to reveal well, I want to ask one more question while Carol is here because I’m sure almost everybody in this audience grew up, like I did, knowing that Ty Cobb’s lifetime batting average was .367. I mean, he’s the leader among everyone. And maybe that that record is never broken and Ty Cobb, .367′s immortal.

But Carol has a distinction that probably most of you don’t know, but she dated Ty Cobb. And -(Laughter)

Carol was officed at Sixth Avenue and 50th Street in the Time-Life Building and NBC was right across the street in Rockefeller Center.

And the quiz shows became the hit of TV. And Carol being the kind of person she is, walked across the street at lunchtime and went on the quiz show of the late 1950s and they gave her the they gave her the questions regarding baseball. And Carol answered them all correctly.

Of course, she was encyclopedic on all kinds of things but so she knew all the answers.

And she proceeded she was single at the time and she proceeded back to her office at Fortune.

And at some point she got a phone call from sounded like a fairly young man in Georgia, and he said, my uncle is Ty Cobb, and he would like to take you to lunch at 21.

And so Carol went to lunch with Ty Cobb at 21, and I think he subsequently had one more lunch. And then she decided to call it off.

But those of you who follow baseball may have noticed that in the 1990s they found that the statistics had been faulty when Ty Cobb played and that he actually only batted. 366, that there were a couple of at-bats they didn’t count.

So, the real question I want to know from Carol, and I think she should maybe tell us, is that would she have dated Ty Cobb (laughter) if she’d known I mean, I know she wouldn’t have I know she wouldn‘t have dated Ty Cobb if his batting average had been. 300 or something like that. (Laughter)

But where was the cutoff point at which she would’ve told Ty Cobb to stay in Atlanta and forget about coming up to New York?

And if Carol would if anybody has a microphone Carol would care to express herself on that question. It’s the unanswered question that I’ve had and all inquiring minds have had and only she knows the answer.

And she’s with her daughter. She married a wonderful guy, John Loomis, and Barbara’s with her. I’m sure Barbara’s been always wanting to ask this question, but I’ve -(laughter) it’s kind of tough when you’re in the family.

But I am sort of an obnoxious guy who will do it in front of a lot of people. Carol? (Laughs)

CAROL LOOMIS: Zero. (Laughter)

WARREN BUFFETT: Or we can have Barbara’s guess. Either one will

BARBARA: She would’ve been she would have been happy to go either way, right?

CAROL LOOMIS: Yeah

BARBARA: You would’ve gone

CAROL LOOMIS: Right. (Laughter)

BARBARA: Thank you.

WARREN BUFFETT: Carol -(Applause)

Carol is the best business writer. She comes from the town of Cole Camp, Missouri. You know, I don’t know, the whole place is around a thousand, probably.

She never took an accounting course, and she ended up becoming the best business writer in the United States.

And we you know, she didn’t want to be an editor, actually. I mean, she could’ve done other things at Fortune, but she just plain liked writing business stories.

And like I say, she that nobody came close to her, and she started from scratch.

But in 1977, I asked her to edit my report, and she turned out to be just as good an editor as she was a writer. And it

All the way through this year, including this year, Carol has edited the Berkshire report. And to the extent that anybody enjoys reading them, let’s give a hand to Carol. (Applause)

28. 股东露丝·戈特斯曼捐赠10亿美元,使布朗克斯医学院免学费

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我被告知在你们去吃午饭前播放一段视频,因为它只有30多秒,然后我们回来时会再谈一点。

所以,如果能把灯调暗,我们将……我们将展示一位伯克希尔股东前几天将她价值10亿美元的股票卖给我们时做了什么。你们会见到一个人,我希望……我知道她是典范——她可能后面有更多的零,但她是许多伯克希尔哈撒韦股东的典范,这将是我们回来时首先谈论的事情。

但你们有些人可能注意到了,几周前,露丝·戈特斯曼向阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院捐赠了10亿美元,用于支付所有——(掌声)

露丝不喜欢引起太多关注,但这是阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦学院在宣布露丝·戈特斯曼刚刚决定支付阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦学院所有教育费用时的反应。而且这将永久持续下去。所以,让我们播放影片。

露丝·戈特斯曼(视频中):我很高兴与你们分享,从今年八月开始,阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院将免学费。

(视频中的学生观众爆发出长时间的欢呼和掌声)

沃伦·巴菲特:这就是为什么查理和我运营伯克希尔如此有趣。(掌声)

她把10亿美元转移给了其他人。她碰巧用伯克希尔的股票做到了。

而且,你知道,他们提出以她的名字重新命名学院等等,但她说,阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦,这是一个非常好的名字,可以开始了。

你知道,没有任何自我意识,你知道,什么都没有。她只是决定,她宁愿让100多名——接近150名——最终的学生能够无债一身轻地开始并继续他们的人生。

她快乐地做到了,而且是在没有人要求,你知道,在四面墙上用霓虹灯写上她的名字的情况下做到的。我向她致敬。(掌声)

原文

28. Shareholder Ruth Gottesman donates $1 billion to make Bronx medical school tuition-free

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. And I’ve been told to show a video right before you go to lunch because it’s only 30-some seconds, and then we’ll talk a little bit more about it when we come.

So, if we’ll dim the lights, we will we will have we’ll show what a Berkshire shareholder did when she sold us a billion dollars’ worth of stock the other day. And you’ll meet somebody that I hope is I know she is the prototype she may have more zeroes, but she’s the prototype of a good many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, and it’ll be the first thing we talk about when we come back.

But some of you may have noticed, whenever it was, a few weeks back, when Ruth Gottesman gave one billion dollars to [the] Albert Einstein [College of Medicine] to take care of all the -(Applause)

Ruth doesn’t like a lot of attention drawn to herself, but here’s how they felt at Albert Einstein when they announced that Ruth Gottesman had just made a decision to take care of all the all of the costs costs of education at Albert Einstein. And it’s going to be in perpetuity. So, let’s just show the film.

RUTH GOTTESMAN (on video): I‘m happy to share with you that starting in August this year, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine will be tuition-free.

(Audience of students shown in video erupts into extended cheers and applause)

WARREN BUFFETT: And that’s why Charlie and I have had such fun running Berkshire. (Applause)

She transferred a billion dollars to other people. She happened to do it with Berkshire stock.

And, you know, they offered to rename the school after her and everything like that, but she said, Albert Einstein, that’s a that‘s a pretty good name to start with, so

You know, there’s no ego involved, you know, nothing. She just decided that she’d rather have a hundred-plus closer to 150, eventually students be able to start out debt-free and proceed in life.

And she did it happily, and she did it without somebody asking, you know, name it, you know, put my name on all four sides in neon lights. And I salute her. (Applause)

下午场

回到顶部

1. 伯克希尔股东在慈善捐赠方面异常慷慨

沃伦·巴菲特:所以,请就座。我们将在3点结束,所以我们越早开始,就越有可能讨论你们可能有的各种问题。

我只想接着我们午饭前播放的那部影片说几句,因为它说明了伯克希尔的某些特质。

你知道,全美有各种各样的上市公司和富有的上市公司。

当然也有这样的情况,某个家族中有人赚了非常多的钱,并将其用于慈善事业,或者大部分用于慈善事业,比如沃尔玛的沃尔顿家族就是最突出的例子。

当然,比尔·盖茨在微软也做了同样的事情。

但伯克希尔的独特之处在于,有数量非常可观的伯克希尔股东,分布在全美各地——不仅仅是在奥马哈——但他们中有许多人已经向当地的慈善机构捐赠了一亿美元或更多——通常不为人知——我认为这个数字是其他任何上市公司的好多倍。

它并没有比……你知道,比尔在慈善方面投入了很多。(掌声)

我不了解家族的细节,但很明显,沃尔玛家族有一大笔钱,我确信他们做了各种慈善事情,并将继续做下去。

但我不认为你会找到任何一家公司,有一群互不相关的股东,其中如此多的人都做了像露丝·戈特斯曼几周前那样的事情。

只是交换一张他们持有了五十年的小纸片——他们自己过得很好。他们没有剥夺家人任何东西。

但他们觉得他们不必创造一个王朝之类的,他们把财富回馈给了社会。很多人匿名这样做。他们在许多州这样做。

在某种程度上,我们在内布拉斯加州看到了一些集中,因为一般来说——

当你捐出很多钱时,在慈善界,他们称之为“吸收能力”。

事实是,很难一次10美元地捐出10亿美元给有需要的人或类似情况。

因此,大型机构具有这种吸收能力,通常是大学或学院之类的。一些慈善机构比其他的更有想象力。

但有一件事——我从未——嗯,大多数人都想匿名做,所以我不能讲他们的具体故事。

但我必须说一件令人震惊的事情:就在我们从露丝那里买回10亿美元伯克希尔A股的同一天——我想实际上我们当时是从学校那里买的,因为她刚刚把股票捐给了他们——所以交易是和他们做的——但我们办公室的马克·米勒德从他们那里买了10亿美元,但他还从另一个州另一个从未有人听说过的人那里买了5亿美元的股票——我就不详细说了。

但我们有非常数量可观的人,而且还会有更多。显然,他们必须是早期进入的人,或者他们的父母,或者他们的祖父母。

但他们都过着美好的生活。他们没有剥夺自己任何东西。

我是说,你知道,他们有第二套房子,但他们——他们通常——事实上,我想说几乎普遍地——社区里的人都认识他们,但他们使用了他们所积累的——他们所储蓄的。他们自己推迟了消费。这就是储蓄的本质,延迟的消费。

他们捐出了……他们资助了一切,遍布全国各地。而且,他们通常喜欢匿名做。

我在年报中提到我姐姐时透露了她的身份,但伯蒂今天在这里。我告诉她她应该穿一件T恤,上面写着“谢绝募捐”之类的(笑声),但她们——

她们只是这么做。

查理和我都认为,为这样一群人工作,而不是为指数基金或对冲基金或其他什么工作,真的非常有趣。

我的意思是,你看到的正是人们实际所做的——这有点像恢复了你对人性的信心,他们在一个家庭内部将消费推迟了几十年,然后他们可以做这样的事情,比如让——我认为最终可能是150人——追求不同的生活——有才华的人、多样化的人——去实现成为医生的梦想,而不必为此背负难以置信的债务或其他情况。有无数不同的例子。

我想让你们知道,你们是非常……嗯,根据我所知,在上市公司中,你们是一群独特的股东,就你们延迟消费的方式而言,同时生活得很好,去帮助他人。

你知道,这需要很多年,但可以产生非常巨大的影响。

露丝所做的就是——在她和我差不多的年纪,她看着一张小纸片,这实际上是未来他人产出的索取凭证,她说,与其产出为她自己,不如让这笔产出为未来几十年、几十年、又几十年持续不断的一群人服务,让他们在追求成为医生的道路上拥有与原本不同的生活。

伯克希尔一直是——当然她的丈夫桑迪对伯克希尔的业绩做出了巨大贡献。桑迪是一个很好的合作伙伴。

所以,这既有他的投入,也有他家人的延迟消费,最终还有这最后一份给阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦学院的礼物。

就像我说的,同一天——那只是5亿美元。它会以不同的方式使用。

但这样的事情在全国各地都在发生,我认为没有哪家公司像这样。所以我只想告诉你们,为一群这样的股东工作令人鼓舞。(掌声)

原文

Afternoon Session

Back To Top

1. Berkshire shareholders are unusually generous with philanthropic contributions

WARREN BUFFETT: So please take your seats. Were going to finish at 3 so the sooner we start, the sooner - more chance well have to talk about various questions you may have.

Id just like to follow on however with that film we showed just before we left for lunch because it says something about Berkshire.

There are, you know, all kinds of public companies and wealthy public companies and - throughout America.

And there are certainly cases where in one family somebodys made a very large amount of money and is devoting it to philanthropy, or much of it to philanthropy, such as the Walton family would be the number one thing in the - in Walmart.

And certainly Bill did the same thing at - Bill Gates - did the same thing at Microsoft.

But what is unusual about Berkshire is that a very significant number of Berkshire shareholders, located all over the United States - not just in Omaha - but the number of different Berkshire holders who have contributed a hundred million dollars or more to their local charities - usually with people not knowing about it - I think is many multiples of any other public company in the country.

Its not more multiples than - you know, Bills put a whole lot into philanthropy. (Applause)

And I dont know the details of the family, but clearly theres a huge sum of money that the Walmart family, Im sure, has done all kinds of things philanthropic and will continue to do it.

But I dont think youll find any company where a group of shareholders who arent related to each other, so many of them, have done something along the lines of what Ruth [Gottesman] did, you know, a few weeks ago.

Just to exchange a little piece of paper that theyve held for five decades - and theyve lived well themselves. They havent denied their family anything.

But they dont feel that they have to create a dynasty or anything and they give it back to society. And a great many do it anonymously. They do it in many states.

To some extent we see a little - some concentration of it in Nebraska because, generally -

When youre giving away a lot of money they call it - in the philanthropic world - they call it, absorption capacity.

And the truth is its very hard to give away a billion dollars, 10 dollars at a time, to people who are needy or something of the sort.

And so large institutions have this absorption capacity, which tend to be universities or colleges or that sort of thing. And some philanthropies are much more imaginative than others.

But the one thing - Ive never - well, most of them want to do it anonymously so I cant tell their specific stories.

But I have to say one thing that was astounding is that the same day we bought a billion dollars worth of Berkshire Class A stock from Ruth so that - and I guess we were actually buying it from the school at that point because shed just given them the - so the transaction was them - was with them - but Mark Millard in our office bought a billion dollars from them, but he also bought 500 million dollars worth of stock from somebody else that nobody will ever have heard of and - in a different state - and I wont elaborate beyond that.

But we have had a very significant number of people, and theres more to come. And obviously they had to be people that came in early, or their parents did, or their grandparents did.

But theyve all lived good lives. They havent denied themselves anything.

I mean, you know, they have second homes and they - but they - they generally - well, in fact I would say almost universally they - people knew them in the community and everything, but theyve used what they accomp - what they saved. They denied themselves consumption, themselves. Thats what savings are, is consumption deferred.

And they’ve - theyve given - they’ve financed everything, all over the country. And usually, they like to do it anonymously.

I outed my sister when I wrote about her in the annual report, but Berties here today. And I told her she should wear a t-shirt or something that said no solicitors allowed, or something that - (laughter) - but they -

But they just do it.

And its really - both Charlie and I felt its really - it’s really fun to work for a group of people like that rather than for index funds or for hedge funds or whatever it may be.

I mean, youre just seeing what people actually - it sort of restores your faith in humanity that people defer their own consumption within a family for decades and decades, and then they can do something like enable, I think it may end up being 150 people, to pursue different lives - and talented people and diverse people - to become a dream of being a doctor and not have to incur incredible debt to do it or whatever may be the case. Theres a million different examples.

And I want you to know that youre very - you’re very - well, youre a unique, actually, group of shareholders among public companies, as far as I know, in terms of the way youve deferred your own consumption, while living fine, to help other people.

And it - you know, it takes a lot of years, but it can really amount to something very substantial.

And what Ruth did was - you know, at roughly my age she looked at a little piece of paper which actually was a claim check on the output of others in the future and she said instead of the output being for her that the output would be for a continuing stream of people for decades and decades and decades to come that were having a different life in the pursuit of becoming doctors than they otherwise wouldve.

And Berkshire has been - and of course her husband Sandy contributed substantially to Berkshires record. Sandy was a wonderful partner to have.

So he - it was both input by him and then there was deferred consumption by his family, and then there was ultimately this final gift to Albert Einstein.

And like I said, the same day - it was only 500 million. Itll go to - in a different way.

But its happening all over, and I dont think any companys like that. So I just want to tell you that its inspiring to work for a group of shareholders. (Applause)

2. 巴菲特会让阿贝尔(当他成为CEO时)负责决定收购哪些企业以及购买哪些股票

沃伦·巴菲特:贝基,轮到你了。(笑)

贝基·奎克:好的。下一个问题来自斯拉文·武科布拉特。

“作为CEO,阿贝尔先生是否会负责管理巴菲特先生一直管理的普通股投资组合?还是这个职能将由库姆斯先生和韦施勒先生执行?

由于投资可以被定义为相对选择的准则,像大规模收购这样的重大资本配置决策能否与普通股选择过程分离?”

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,我要说的是,这个决定实际上将在我离开后做出。如果他们做的不一样,我可能会尝试回来纠缠他们——(笑)

但是——我不确定通灵板(听不清)能否完成这项工作。

所以那项工作——我永远不会知道它是否得到了妥善处理。

但我感到非常放心的是,它将由一个董事会做出——他们拥有大量的脑力。他们致力于一个不寻常的机构。他们会想出办法的。

但我要说的是,如果我在那个董事会并且要做决定,我可能会——了解格雷格——我会——我会把资本配置留给格雷格。而且——

他对企业非常了解。如果你了解企业,你就了解——你就了解普通股。

我的意思是,如果你真的知道企业如何运作,你就是——你就是一名投资经理。你管理多少——可能只是你自己的资金,也可能是其他人的。

如果你主要对获得管理资产感兴趣,那是赚钱的地方,你知道,你真的不必理解那类事情。

但显然,特德或托德的情况并非如此。

但我认为责任应该完全由格雷格承担。

责任一直在我的肩上,我把其中一部分分派了出去。我以前对如何处理这个问题有不同的想法。

但我认为责任应该由CEO承担,无论那位CEO决定什么可能有助于履行这一职责,你知道,这取决于他或她在管理资金时当时如何决定。

但我要说的是,随着伯克希尔管理的资金规模变得如此巨大,我的想法在某种程度上也有了发展。

我们不想尝试让200个人每人管理10亿美元。那是行不通的。

我认为,当你处理我们将要拥有的资金规模时,你必须非常战略性地思考如何做非常大规模的的事情。我认为格雷格有能力做到这一点。

我认为我过去错过了很多东西,所以我现在对于这样做实际上更明智了。

但是,你知道,如果再次发生类似2008年和2009年的事件,我这次会做得更好。

但它不会完全像2008年或2009年那样。你可以肯定这一点。

但你也可以说,有时候能够极其迅速地获得巨额资金——也许每五年一次——也许——可能更像是每十年一次或类似——但随着世界变得更加复杂、老练和相互关联,出错的可能性也更大。

没有必要在这里探讨不同事情发生的可能性。

但你确实希望在事情发生时能够采取行动,我认为CEO应该是一个能够权衡收购企业、购买股票、做各种可能在别人都不愿意行动的时候出现的事情的人。

2008年人们并不是没有钱。而是他们瘫痪了。

我们确实有一些资本的优势,以及采取行动的意愿——甚至是渴望——而且政府实际上将我们视为资产而不是负债。

我认为,随着我们资本堆的增长,所有这些品质将变得更加重要。

因此,我认为格雷格可能比我在那些非同寻常的事情发生、我们是合乎逻辑的去处的时期更有趣。

嗯,你永远不会知道它会是下周、明年还是下一个十年。

但不会是一个世纪以后。这是肯定的。

世界金融形势越相互关联和复杂,在某种意义上就越脆弱。它解决了许多小问题,但使其更容易受到大问题的影响。

格雷格,这完全困扰你吗,还是不?(笑声)

格雷格·阿贝尔:不直接回答这个问题,我认为还有一件重要的事情:我认为,在我们经历任何过渡时,重要的是要知道伯克希尔今天遵循的资本配置原则将继续存在,沃伦。

我认为这就是我想要传达的事情。我们将——我们有我们的运营业务,保险和非保险。我们将为他们提供必要的资本,以便在适当的情况下取得成功和增长。

同时,当他们拥有多余现金时,我们期望他们返还资本。

然后,正如我们已经讨论过或您提到的,总是关注潜在的新业务,整体或部分。正如您一直强调的——我完全同意——我们将——我们总是会将股票视为投资一家企业,无论是1%还是100%。

但我们看重的是业务。我们看重的是该业务的经济前景,它的可持续性如何,10年后会是什么样子,以及我们最初投入的资本是否面临指数级风险,或者风险在哪里,那个轮廓?

然后,当然——然后我们显然会有后备计划,将多余现金投资于最安全的资产,即美国国债,因为我们想维持资产负债表这座堡垒,原因有两个。

一是为了行动,二是为了始终保护我们的股东。如果我们有——我们希望现实地维持伯克希尔现在的地位,以确保——确保它能够持久。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,当他说这些话时,让我希望自己在这个过程(笑)中多年来一直是二号人物而不是一号人物。你知道——

没有什么比我们现在做的更有趣了,而且我们的处境比以往任何时候都好。

然而,我们并没有做好准备去赚取相对于美国企业整体收益的非凡回报。

你知道,我希望我们能稍微好一点。但在未来一个世纪里,没有人能戏剧性地更好——你知道,很难预测谁会赢。

如果你回顾一下,就像我们几年前的会议上做的那样,看看每十年全球前20名的公司,你会意识到这个游戏并不像看起来那么容易。

但获得一个不错的结果实际上——合理地——应该相对容易,只要你没有被说服放弃做(笑)过去有效的事情。不要被潮流冲昏头脑,不要听那些利益与我们股东利益不同的人的话。

原文

2. Buffett would make Abel, when he is CEO, responsible for deciding both which businesses and which stocks to buy

WARREN BUFFETT: And, Becky, go to it. (Laughs)

BECKY QUICK: All right. The next question comes from Slaven Vukobrat.

“As CEO, will Mr. Abel be in charge of the portfolio of common stocks that Mr. Buffett has been managing? Or will this function be exercised by Mr. Combs and Mr. Weschler?

As investing could be defined as the discipline of relative selection, can major capital allocation decisions such as large acquisitions be separated from the common stock selection process?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I would say that decision actually will be made when Im not around. I may try and come back and haunt them if they do it differently than - (laughs)

But - Im not sure the Ouija board (unintelligible) will get that job done.

So that job - Ill never know the answer on whether it got covered.

But I feel very comfortable about the fact that it will be made by a board that - theyve got loads of brain power. Theyve got a dedication to an unusual institution. And they will figure things out.

But I would say that if I were on that board and were making the decision, I would probably - knowing Greg - I would - I would just leave - I would leave the capital allocation to Greg. And -

He understands businesses extremely well. And if you understand businesses, you understand - you understand common stocks.

I mean, if you really know how business works, you are - you are an investment manager. How much you manage - it may be just your own funds or may be other people.

And if you really are primarily interested in getting assets under management, which is where the money is, you know, you dont really have to understand that sort of thing.

But thats not the case with Ted or Todd, obviously.

But I think the responsibility ought to be entirely with Greg.

The responsibility has been with me, and I farmed out some of it. And I used to think differently about how that would be handled.

But I think the responsibility should be that of the CEO, and whatever that CEO decides may be helpful in effectuating that responsibility, you know, thats up to him or her to decide at the time theyre running the money.

But so I would say that my thinking on that has developed to some extent as the sums have grown so large at Berkshire.

And we do not want to try and have, you know, 200 people around that are managing a billion each. It just doesnt work.

And I think that when youre handling the sums that we will have, youve got to think very strategically about how to do very big things. And I think Greg is capable of doing that.

I think Ive missed a lot of stuff in the past, so Im actually wiser about doing that now.

But I - you know, I would do it better this time around than 2008 and ’09 if something akin to that happened.

But it wont be exactly like 2008 or ’09. You can be sure of that.

But you also can say that there will be times when having huge sums available extremely quickly -maybe itll be once every five years - maybe - it will probably be more like once every ten years or something - but as the world gets more sophisticated, complicated, and intertwined, more can go wrong.

And theres no sense going through here exploring the possibilities of the different things that could happen.

But you do want to be able to act when it happens, and I think the chief executive should be somebody that can weigh buying businesses, buying stocks, doing all kinds of things that might come up at a time when nobody else is willing to move.

It wasnt that people didnt have money in 2008. Its that they were paralyzed.

And we did have the advantage of having some capital and a willingness to - an eagerness even - to act and a government that, in effect, looked at us as an asset instead of a liability.

And I think that all of those qualities will be even more important as our capital pile grows.

And so I think Greg may have even more fun than I had in a period when extraordinary things were happening and we were the logical place to go.

Well, it - you never know whether it will be next week, next year, next decade.

But it wont be a century from now. That is for sure.

And the more intertwined and sophisticated the world financial situation gets, the more vulnerable it gets, in a certain sense. It solves a lot of small problems, but it leaves it more vulnerable to large problems.

Greg, does that bother you at all, or not? (Laughter)

GREG ABEL: Without directly answering the question, I think theres - one important thing is, I think, as we go through any transition, its important to know that the capital allocation principles that Berkshire lives by today will continue to survive, Warren.

And I think thats what - the thing Id want to communicate. That well - we have our operating businesses, insurance, non-insurance. Were going to - well provide them the capital necessary to be successful and grow if its appropriate.

At the same time, were expecting a return of capital from them when they have excess cash.

And then, as weve discussed or youve touched on, always looking at potentially new businesses as a whole or in a piece. And as youve always highlighted - and I fully agree - its - well always look at equities as were investing in a business, either one percent or a hundred percent.

But were looking at the business. Were looking at the economic prospects of that business and how sustainable it is and what it will look like 10 years from now and is our - the capital we originally put in at exponential risk, or where does that risk sit, that profile?

And then, of course - and then well obviously have our contingent to always put excess cash in the safest investment there is in U.S. Treasurys, knowing we want to maintain that fortress of a balance sheet for two reasons.

One, to act, but also to always protect our shareholders. If we have - we want to maintain the position Berkshire is in now realistically for the - to ensure - to ensure it endures.

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, when he says that it makes me wish Id stayed around to be number two instead of number one in this process (laughs) over the years. It’s -

You know, it doesnt get more fun than what were doing, and were better positioned than ever before.

Were not positioned, though, however, to earn extraordinary returns versus what American business generally earns.

You know, I would hope we could be slightly better. But nobodys going to be dramatically better in some - you know, over the next century, it gets very hard to - it gets very hard to predict who the winner will be.

And if you look back, as we did a few meetings ago, as to the top 20 companies in the world at 10-year intervals, you realize the game isnt quite as easy as it looks.

But getting a decent result actually is - reasonably - should be reasonably easy, if you just dont get talked out of doing what (laughs) has - works in the past. And dont get carried away with fads and dont listen to people who have different interests in mind than the interest of our shareholders.

3. 分销公司没有“绝佳”的业务,但伯克希尔会关注

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我们去一号站。

股东:您好,巴菲特先生。我叫(听不清),来自德国杜塞尔多夫。这是我第一次来奥马哈,感谢您今天让我们来到这里。

我的问题是问您,巴菲特先生和阿贝尔先生。2019年,据报道您对IT分销业务Tech Data提出了收购要约,并评论说您理解它作为中间商的角色。

我想知道您能否详细说明您在评估像Tech Data这样的IT分销业务及其竞争地位时考虑的标准。谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我们对分销业务有一些经验,我们在一定程度上了解它们的潜力和局限。

格雷格,你比我更深入地参与了那件事——我的意思是,那是一个已经有报价、存在“寻宝”条款的情况,我认为管理层可能更希望我们收购它。

当我们提出更高报价时,原投标方提高了他们的报价。我们从不第二次提出相同的报价。所以,格雷格,你告诉他更多。

格雷格·阿贝尔:是的。当然。

2019年,当我们看到另一个报价以及该分销业务的基础价值时,我们认为Tech Data是一个独特的机会。

当我和沃伦——还有其他人在谈论时——我们得出结论,我们应该与管理层谈谈。我们与团队进行了交谈,他们非常有兴趣让伯克希尔成为他们的长期所有者。

我们仍然在该机会中看到了良好的价值。我们对分销业务有很好的理解。

我们有TTI。它与Tech Data不完全相同,因为它们非常具体地针对其客户是谁,他们服务和供应谁,以及他们从谁那里采购,因为在分销方面,重要的是要从希望分销其产品的人那里获得投入,并且你知道另一端存在需求。

他们有一个——他们有一个优秀的模式。

如果你想想TTI,例如——沃伦多次谈到保罗·安德鲁斯和创办这项业务的人。但这是一个独特的业务,我们在该业务上的收入大约是100亿美元。

他们销售的平均零件价格略高于9美分。每年有950亿个零件通过他们的仓库。

但这是一个模式,如果你在等式两端都有合适的人,并且你理解得很好,那么那里就有一个独特的机会。

这就是我们在Tech Data身上看到的。正如沃伦强调的,我们提出了报价。

不幸的是,原投标方随后超出了我们的报价,我们就继续前进了。但我们当时高度评价它。

沃伦——

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。在过去三四年或五年里,我们可能总共看到了至少五个这样的机会。

这不是一个你可以梦想的业务,因为——它是一个不错的业务。但是,例如,许多物品——制造商就是——他们不想占用自己的资金。

你占用资金——如果你有超过一百万个SKU——所谓的库存单位——这有点像卖软心糖豆之类的东西。

你在一定程度上起到了作用,但你没有——你实际上不是——它不是你的产品,实际上。

我的意思是,你只是设备生产商将产品送达最终用户的一个良好系统,而无需占用大量资金并涉足他们不想涉足的领域。

所以我们理解。但这没什么神奇的。TTI有一个了不起的人在管理。

当他——当你有一个了不起的人管理某件事时,在某种程度上,这会吸引更好的人才加入。

我和格雷格去参加了保罗·安德鲁斯的

您提到的这些背景,从广义上讲,最终引导我们研究了消费者在苹果产品方面的行为。

原文 And that sort of background, in a very general way, led up to the study of consumer behavior in terms of Apples products.

在那个案例中,我观察了内布拉斯加家具城发生的情况,当时人们离开商店,即使我们以不赚钱的价格销售苹果产品。但苹果太受欢迎了,如果我们没有存货,人们就会离开商店,直奔百思买或其他地方。

原文 And in that case, while I watched what was happening at the [Nebraska] Furniture Mart, in terms of people leaving the store, even though we were selling Apple at a price where we werent even making any money. But it was just so popular that if we didnt have it, people left the store and went to Best Buy or someplace.

如果你了解布卢姆金一家,他们无法忍受任何顾客空手离开。所以相应地,他们会采取行动。

原文 And if you know the Blumkins, they cant stand anybody leaving the store. So theyd behave accordingly.

但后来你学到了——这必然让你对这个品牌产生兴趣。然后你会有上百万个不同的信息输入。我想心理学家称这为“统觉团”。

原文 But then you learned - that had to interest you in the brand. And then you had a million different inputs. But I think the psychologists call this apperceptive mass.

但总有一些东西会出现,它把你所做的所有观察和你拥有的知识汇聚在一起,然后将你的思考结晶为行动。在苹果的案例中,是重大的行动。

原文 But there is something that comes along that takes a whole bunch of observations that youve made, and knowledge you have, and then crystallizes your thinking into action. Big action, in the case of Apple.

实际上,有些事情——我无意故弄玄虚——但我确实不能谈论。

原文 And there actually is something which - I dont mean to be mysterious - but I really cant talk about.

但它完全是合法的(笑),我可以向你保证这一点。

原文 But it was perfectly legal (laughs) and everything, I can assure you of that.

只是恰好有某件事进入了视野,它结合了我所有的其他观察——我想我的思维达到了他们所说的“统觉团”,我对这个词其实不太了解,但当我体验到这种现象时,我能识别它。

原文 But it just happened to be something that entered the picture that took all the other observations - and I guess my mind reached what they call apperceptive mass, which I really dont know anything about, but I know the phenomenon when I experience it.

你知道,那——我们看到了我认为极具进取精神的东西。

原文 And, you know, that is - we saw something that I felt was, well, enormously enterprising.

也许我以前用过这个例子。但如果你问大多数人,如果他们有一部iPhone和第二辆车——第二辆车花了他们3万或3.5万美元——并且被告知他们永远不能再拥有iPhone,或者永远不能再拥有那辆第二辆车,他们会放弃第二辆车。

原文 Maybe Ive used this example before. But if you talk to most people, if they have an iPhone and they have a second car - the second car cost them 30 or 35 thousand dollars - and they were told that they never could have the iPhone again or they could never have the second car again, they would give up the second car.

但那第二辆车花的钱是iPhone的20倍(笑)。

原文 But the second car cost them 20 times what the (laughs) iPhone did.

所以,人们并不以那种方式思考他们的购买行为,但我会思考他们的行为。

原文 So, now people dont think about their purchases that way, but I think about their behavior.

所以我们只是——在不知情的情况下——我完全不知道——iPhone内部可能有个小人在工作。我完全不知道它是怎么工作的。

原文 And so we just - so without knowing - I dont know - have the faintest - there may be some little guy inside the iPhone or something. I have no idea how it works.

但我也懂——我懂得它对人们意味着什么,我知道人们如何使用它。我想我对消费者行为的了解足以让我知道它是有史以来最伟大的产品之一——也许是最伟大的产品。它提供的价值是不可思议的。

原文 But I also know what - I know what it means to people, and I know how they use it. And I think I know enough about consumer behavior to know that its one of the great products - maybe the greatest product - of all time. And the value it offers is incredible.

我认为它拥有——在蒂姆·库克身上——我认为它拥有一个,以他自己的方式,等同于史蒂夫·乔布斯的合伙人,能够将一件事做得异常出色,甚至不止一项应用。但有一件事——蒂姆是与他人合作的成功伴侣。

原文 And I think it has - in Tim Cook - I think it has somebody that, in his own way, is the equivalent of a partner with Steve Jobs, that could do one thing extraordinarily well, and more than one application. But one thing - and Tim was the perfect partner to serve sequentially with him.

所以这——当你看到它时,你基本就能认出来。

原文 So it‘s - you sort of know it when you see it.

1950年我去GEICO时,实际上就看到了这一点。我当时并不完全清楚我看到了什么。

原文 I actually saw it with GEICO when I went there in 1950. I didnt know exactly what I was seeing.

但是洛里默·戴维森在一个星期六,用了四个小时,教会了我足够的知识——我理解了汽车保险是什么,我知道汽车是什么,我知道人们在想什么。

原文 But Lorimer Davidson, on a Saturday, in four hours, taught me enough about what - I understood what auto insurance was, and I knew what a car was, and I knew what people - went through peoples minds.

你知道,我知道人们不喜欢买保险,但我知道他们不能(笑)没有保险就开车。所以这非常有趣。

原文 You know, I knew they didnt like to buy it, but I knew they couldnt (laughs) drive without it. So that was pretty interesting.

然后——但他在那个星期六的下午填补了我脑海中的所有空白。

原文 And then - but he filled in all the blanks in my mind as I sat there on that Saturday afternoon.

你知道,这种事时不时会发生,对吧?

原文 And, you know, every now and then it happens. You know?

为什么你有这个——你遇到的人。你知道,房间里所有不同的潜在配偶,然后发生了一些事情,让你决定这就是你要找的人,对吧?

原文 Why do you have this - the person you met. You know, there are all these different potential spouses in the room, and then something happens that you decide that this is the one for you. You know?

我想,是不是罗杰斯和汉默斯坦在《某个迷人的夜晚》(笑)里写到的?

原文 I think, was it Rogers and Hammerstein that “Some Enchanted Evening” (laughs) wrote about that?

嗯,我们心目中迷人的夜晚,就是找到一个好生意,我和查理都是。(笑)

原文 Well, our idea of an enchanted evening is to come up with a business, Charlie and me. (Laughs)

这其中有一个方面,就是你了解很多,拥有大量的经验,然后看到某个东西触发了灵感,然后——

原文 And there is an aspect of knowing a whole lot and having a whole lot of experiences, and then seeing something that turns on the light bulb, and -

这种情况会继续发生,我希望你们也能遇到几次。但你不可能明天就让它发生,但你可以为明天可能发生做好准备。而且它确实会时不时发生。

原文 That will continue to happen, and I hope it happens a few times to you. But you cant make it happen tomorrow, but you can prepare yourself for it happening tomorrow. And it will happen sometimes.

格雷格·阿贝尔:嘿,沃伦?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯?

格雷格·阿贝尔:他提到了西方石油,我认为这是一个很好的例子。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

格雷格·阿贝尔:你最初的决定,基本上是在一个周末经过一些思考做出的。

原文 GREG ABEL: Hey Warren?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah?

GREG ABEL: He mentioned OXY, which I think is a great example.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

GREG ABEL: Where you made the original decision, basically, on a weekend with some thought.

但随着你对西方石油及其资产状况、其卓越运营能力以及一位在资本配置方面能力出众的CEO了解的越来越多,我想你的信心——这体现在你持续增持股票上——是那种过程的一部分,其中——

原文 But as the more you learned about OXY and the asset position they had, their ability to operate in an exceptional manner, and then a strong CEO around capital allocation.

I think your confidence, which was reflected in continuing to acquire more shares, is sort of that type of process, where -

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

格雷格·阿贝尔:——基本上——

原文 GREG ABEL: - basically -

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。这正是要点。我的意思是,我只是随着时间推移了解更多。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Its exactly to the point. I mean I just learned more as I went along.

我了解得足够多——你知道,我从未——我听说过西方石油公司。西方石油公司恰好是某个公司的后裔——不是后裔,而是城市服务公司的延续,那是我买的第一只股票。

原文 I learned enough - you know, Id never - Id heard of Occidental Petroleum. Occidental Petroleum happens to have been a descendant to something - not a descendant, but a continuation of Cities Service, which was the first stock I bought.

当然,我对石油和天然气行业了解很多,但我对地质学一窍不通。

原文 And of course, I knew a lot about the oil and gas business, but I didnt know anything about geology.

所以我对这门生意的经济原理有所了解。我脑子里存储了各种各样关于这个行业的信息。

原文 And so I knew the economics of it. I had a lot of various things stored in my mind about the business.

但我从未听说过[西方石油CEO]维基[霍拉布],直到——我想那是个星期五或星期六,我们在周日早上见了面,然后做了一笔交易。但那只是某种交易。

原文 But I never heard of [OXY CEO] Vicki [Hollub] until - I guess it was a Friday or a Saturday, and we met on Sunday morning, and we made a deal. But that was one sort of deal.

然后随着时间的推移,各种不同的事件发生了,你知道,卡尔·伊坎也掺和进来了。我的意思是,从一开始就有无数你无法预测的事情。

原文 And then as time passed, all the kinds of different events happened, and, you know, [Carl] Icahn came in. I mean there are a million things you couldnt predict at the start.

我随着时间推移形成了某些观点,但我也在这个过程中学到了更多。

原文 And Ive formed certain opinions as I went along, but then I learned more as I went along.

然后在一个时刻,我听到了一个投资者电话会议,我想那是在——它以一种方式帮我把所有事情串联了起来。

原文 And then at a point when I heard an investor call, I think it was on - it put things together for me in a way.

这并不意味着我知道我有了板上钉钉的事或类似的东西。我不知道明年的油价会是多少。

原文 Didnt mean I knew I had a sure thing or anything like that. I dont know what the price of oil is going to be next year.

但我知道这是一个值得采取行动的事情。所以我们行动了。我们很高兴这样做了,而且我们仍然不知道明年的油价会是多少。没人知道。

原文 But I knew that it was something to act on. And so we did. And were very happy we did, and we still dont know what the price of oils going to be next year. Nobody does.

但我认为赔率非常好,这是一个好的决定——虽然不是铁定的。你知道,我们有购买更多股票的期权。

原文 But I think the odds are very good that it was - but not a cinch - that it was a good decision. And, you know, weve got options to buy more stock.

你知道,当我们完成所有交易后,它可能成为伯克希尔一项有价值的投资。我们参与其中了。而且我们会长期持有。

原文 And, you know, when we get through with it, we could - it could be a worthwhile investment for Berkshire. And were in it. And were in it for keeps.

我们拥有的其他一些东西,我们并不是为了长期持有。

原文 And there are other things that we own that we arent in for keeps.

6. 巴菲特:购买派拉蒙股票,我负“100%的责任”,“我们亏损了不少钱”

沃伦·巴菲特:哦,顺便提一下,我应该把这件事说出来,因为外界一直有猜测。

原文 ### 6. Buffett: I was ’100% responsible‘ for buying Paramount stock and ’we lost quite a bit of money'

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, incidentally, I should just throw this out there, since theres been speculation on it.

我们已经卖出了——首先,我对派拉蒙的决定负100%的责任。我读到一些猜测,说泰德或托德中的某一位参与其中。

原文 Weve sold - A, I was a hundred percent responsible for the Paramount decision. I read speculation that one of - either Ted or Todd - had some involvement in that.

不。这百分之百是我自己的决定。

原文 No. It was a hundred percent my decision.

我们已经全部卖光了,亏损了不少钱。这在投资行业中也时有发生。

原文 And weve sold it all, and we lost quite a bit of money. And that happens in this business, too.

但事实上,拥有派拉蒙让我想得更远。我喜欢更深入地思考,我确实——尽管关于人们如何利用闲暇时间这个整体问题,我并没有更努力地去思考。

原文 But, actually, owning Paramount made me think even further. I like to think deeper, but I certainly have - not harder even about the whole question of what people do with their leisure time.

你知道,经营任何形式的娱乐业务——无论是体育、电影或其他什么——的主导原则是什么。

原文 And, you know, what the governing principles are of running an entertainment business of any sort, whether its sports or movies or whatever it might be.

我认为我现在比几年前更聪明了。但我也认为我更穷了,因为我以这种方式获取了知识。

原文 And I think Im smarter now than I was couple years ago. But I also think Im poorer because I acquired the knowledge in the manner I did.

但我只想非常清楚地表明,A,我们在派拉蒙上亏了钱,B,伙计们,这完全是我一个人干的。(笑)

原文 But I just want to be very clear that A, we lost money on Paramount, and B, you know, I did it all by myself, folks. (Laughs)

我不知道我是否已经预判了贝琪的问题,但我们——我们会——我们会发现的。我不知道。走着瞧。

原文 I dont know whether Ive anticipated one of Beckys questions now, but well - we will - we will find out. I dont know. Lets see.

7. 北伯林顿铁路公司正试图降低成本以更好地与竞争对手铁路公司竞争

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,下一个问题,贝琪。

原文 ### 7. BNSF is trying to reduce costs to better compete with rival railroads

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, youre next, Becky.

格雷格·阿贝尔:是。

原文 GREG ABEL: Yep.

贝琪·奎克:是的,你确实预判了其中一个问题。(笑)

原文 BECKY QUICK: Yes, you did anticipate one of the questions. (Laughs)

我们来谈另一个问题。这个问题来自德国慕尼黑的文森特·詹姆斯。

原文 Lets go to another one. This question comes from Vincent James in Munich, Germany.

“在董事长的信函中,沃伦指出,北伯林顿铁路公司的利润率相对于其他五家铁路公司已经下滑。”

原文 “In the chairmans letter, Warren points out that the profit margins for BNSF have slipped relative to all five other railroads.”

“然而,沃伦在信中评论道,‘北伯林顿铁路公司运输的货物比任何其他五家主要铁路公司都多,资本支出也比它们中任何一家都多,并且拥有无与伦比的广阔服务区域。’”

原文 “However, Warren comments in the letter, BNSF carries more freight and spends more on capital expenditures than any of the other five major railroads and has a vast service territory second to none.′

“鉴于沃伦对北伯林顿铁路公司明显优势的评论,是什么导致了收入和利润的下降?”

原文 “Given the comments from Warren about the clear strengths of BNSF, what explains the decline in revenue and profit?”

“特别是,相对于其他五家铁路公司,利润率为何下降?与其他铁路公司相比,问题出在哪里?正在采取什么措施来解决这些问题?请具体说明。”

原文 “And, in particular, the profit margins, relative to the other five railroads? What are the issues relative to the other railroads, and what is being done to address them? Please be specific.”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。我会——嗯,我们回答得有多具体,取决于格雷格想说什么。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: OK. And I will - well, how specific we get depends on what Greg wants to say.

但这是格雷格——这是格雷格的责任。虽然这笔收购以及直到格雷格接管之前的运营是我的责任,但我想让格雷格来回答这个问题。

原文 But Greg is - its Gregs responsibility. It is my responsibility for the purchase and for the operation up till Greg took over, but I think Ill let Greg answer that.

格雷格·阿贝尔:当然。是的,沃伦在评论中提到了这一点——正如所反映的,这些评论非常准确。

原文 GREG ABEL: Sure. Yeah, Warren touched on it in the comments from the - as reflected, there are very accurate.

如果你看我们本季度的业绩或我们去年的业绩,两者都——作为股东,这是令人失望的,相对于其他一级铁路公司,也是令人失望的。

原文 If you look at this quarters results or our last years results, they were both - theyre disappointing as shareholders and disappointing in the - relative to the other Class I railroads.

正如问题中强调的那样,还有另外五家一级铁路公司,所以很容易了解你与其他公司的对比情况。还有很多其他变量,但有一些非常简单的事情可以观察。

原文 And as highlighted in the question, theres five other Class I railroads, so its pretty easy to understand how youre performing versus the others. And theres a lot of other variables, but there are some very simple things to look at.

当我们审视我们在伯灵顿公司的经历时——我想稍微回溯一点。

原文 When we look at where weve been on - associated with Burlington - I would just back up a little bit.

因为如果你回到2021年,伯灵顿团队和集团的管理团队,我们在运营铁路的效率、有效性等多个方面都取得了显著的进展。

原文 Because if you go back to 2021, the Burlington team and management team in the group, we were making excellent progress on a lot of fronts when it comes to our operating, in both being efficient and effective in how were operating the railroad.

我记得自己在2022年说过一些非常具体的话,我评论说那一年出现了所有的供应链问题。西海岸港口发生了很多事情。我们的火车在很多地方都堵塞了。我们称那一年为“重置年”。

原文 And I remember very specific comments from myself in 2022 where I commented that that was a year there was all the supply chain issues. A lot going on in the West Coast ports. Our trains were backed up in a variety of places. And we called that a reset year.

我认为在运营方面,我们确实需要一年的重置时间。

原文 And I think we did need a reset year on the operational side.

但随着我们进入23年,业务成本水平——成本结构——我们没有根据我们所看到的潜在需求进行调整。我们预计了更多的需求,但我们没有重置我们的成本结构。

原文 But as we moved into 23, the business cost level - cost structure - we didnt reset it to the underlying demand we were seeing. We anticipated more demand, and we did not reset our cost structure.

团队正在非常努力地工作,就在我们说话的此刻,努力做到——既要重置成本结构,也要将成本资源分配到需要的地方。

原文 And the teams working very hard, as we speak, to do - both reset the cost structure and allocate the cost resources where they need to be.

当你经历类似的事情时,我们作为组织已经认识到,是的,铁路的需求会在一定程度上驱动成本。

原文 And when you go through something like that, what weve recognized as an organization, yes, the demand of the rail will drive a certain amount of the costs.

但现实是,铁路行业,如果你追溯到很多很多年前,它是平稳的。这个行业没有太多的增长。有机会变得更高效、更有效,我们的利润率可以上升。但现实是,需求将持平。

原文 But the reality is that the rail industry, if you go back many, many years, its flat. Theres not a lot of growth in the industry. Theres opportunities to become more efficient and effective, and our margins can go up. But the reality is demands going to be flat.

但它在铁路的不同板块内移动。可能在消费品领域。可能在工业领域。可能在农业领域。

原文 But it does move within different sectors of the rail. It can be in the consumer products. It can be in industrial. It can be in ag.

但总体而言,它通常是相对平稳的。所以我们需要把成本结构搞对,我们需要为未来一年,也为长期把成本结构搞对。

原文 But overall, its generally going to be relatively flat. So we need to get our cost structure right, and we need to get it right both for the coming year, but for the long-term.

这意味着这将是一个持续的工作。我们不能停止。我们不能说我们已经做得够多了,因为我们的竞争对手——我们与其他铁路公司竞争,但也与卡车运输业竞争。

原文 And that means its going to be a continuous exercise. We cant stop. We cant say weve gotten far enough, because our competitors - and we compete with the other rails, but we also do compete with the truck industry.

我们必须拥有一个能够让我们在铁路行业内以及整个运输行业内进行竞争的成本结构。

原文 We have to have a cost structure that allows us to compete both within our rail industry and within the transportation sector as a whole.

所以伯灵顿的团队正在非常努力地工作,以解决成本结构问题,就像我们过去所做的那样。

原文 So the team at Burlingtons working very hard to address the cost structure, just like we have in the past.

我认为我们认识到的一件事是,当其他铁路公司实施了精确调度铁路运输时,我们还有其他的指标需要持续关注,并挑战自己。如果我们没有达到他们的水平,是什么原因导致的?

原文 I think one thing we do recognize, when the other railroads have implemented precision scheduled railroading, theres other metrics that we have to continue to pay attention to, and challenge ourselves. If were not at their level, what are the things that are driving it.

所以,我们打算——当他们要求具体细节时,我会给你们一些。

原文 So were going to - when they ask for specifics, Ill give you a few.

我们必须审视我们的铁路调车场,了解我们是如何管理它们的。

原文 We have to look at our rail yards and understand how were managing that.

我们必须审视我们的机车车队。包括车队规模以及我们如何利用它们,并挑战自己。

原文 We have to look at our locomotive fleet. Both the size and how were utilizing that and challenge ourselves.

然后我们必须回过头来看看我们如何利用员工资源,以及如何在整个业务中进行分配。

原文 And we have to then go back to how were using our employee resources and allocating them across the business.

所以还有很多工作要做。我们的团队百分之百致力于推动建立与业务潜在需求相匹配的正确成本结构。

原文 So theres a lot to be done there. Our teams one hundred percent committed to driving to the right cost structure thats consistent with the underlying demand in the business.

答案是我们不能就此止步。

原文 And then we cant stop there, is the answer.

所以还有很多工作要做,但我们有一个完全投入并致力于此的团队,我们将在今年取得良好的进展。

原文 So a lot to be done, but we have a team thats absolutely engaged and committed to it, and we’ll make - were going to make good progress in this current year.

沃伦·巴菲特:在伯克希尔,我们希望每个人都明白,每一项业务都有很多事情要做,对吧?

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: At Berkshire, we want everybody to have the idea that theres a lot to be done with every business. You know?

所以,我的意思是——你知道——一个名叫皮特·基威特的家伙在奥马哈建立了一家了不起的公司[基威特公司]——建筑公司。真是了不起。

原文 So, I mean - it is - you know - we -you know - a fellow named Pete Kiewit built a remarkable company [Kiewit Corporation] in Omaha - building company. Really remarkable.

在完成所有工作之后,当某件事做得特别好时——比如在大家认为不可能成功的东河下挖隧道——他会说,他很高兴,但并不满足。

原文 And it is - the question after everything they did, that when something was done particularly well, theyll - digging a tunnel under the East River or something when they said it couldnt be done - he would say it would be - he was pleased but not satisfied.

这正是我们希望伯克希尔永远保持的态度。

原文 And that is exactly the way we want the attitude to be at Berkshire forever.

奥马哈是一座铁路城市。如果林肯总统在1862年(我想是的)决定选择圣约瑟夫或普拉茨茅斯或其他任何地方作为横贯大陆铁路的东部连接点,奥马哈可能只是一个密苏里河畔只有两万左右人口的小镇。

原文 Omaha is a railroad town. If President Lincoln, in 1862, I think it was, had decided to pick St. Joe or Plattsmouth or anyplace else to build the transcontinental railroad, Omaha would probably be a little town of 20,000 or something on the banks of the Missouri.

但由于林肯希望这里成为东部连接点,并修建一条横贯大陆的铁路,奥马哈一飞冲天。

原文 But making - with Lincolns desire to make this the eastern connection, and make a transcontinental railroad, Omaha just took off.

所以铁路是这里的根基。

原文 So its been railroading at its base. The -

任何对金融事务感兴趣的人都必须考虑铁路。此外,铁路本身也有一定的魅力。

原文 And anybody thats interested in financial matters had to think about railroads. Plus, they have a certain glamour to them anyway.

但有趣的是,我们的主要竞争对手联合太平洋铁路公司,在20或25年前也远远落后,直到吉姆——

原文 But the interesting thing is that UP [Union Pacific], which is our main competitor, themselves fell way behind 20 or 25 years ago, before Jim -

格雷格·阿贝尔:对。

原文 GREG ABEL: Right.

沃伦·巴菲特:——在吉姆·杨接手之前。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: - before Jim Young came in.

然后在2000年,无论是哪年,大概是08年左右,我开始买入三家铁路公司的股票。我记得是联合太平洋、北伯林顿和诺福克西方公司。我不知道为什么我没买切萨皮克与俄亥俄铁路的股票。

原文 And in 2000, whenever it was, ’08 or so, I started buying three railroad stocks. And - Union Pacific, BNSF, and Norfolk Western, I believe. I dont know why I wasnt buying C&O.

但不管怎样,吉姆·杨在联合太平洋干得非常出色。

原文 But in any event, Jim Young had done a marvelous job with Union Pacific.

所以我们持有这三只股票。但我们在2009年所做的,是我们能够——嗯,我们已经拥有了其中22%的股份,但总体而言,那是3500万美元——实际上是一百亿美元——这是我们资本的重要组成部分。我们能够把它投入到我们喜欢的业务中。

原文 So we owned all three stocks. But what we did in 2009 is we were able - well, we already owned 22 percent of it, but overall, it was 35 million dollars - a billion dollars - which was a significant part of our capital. We were able to put it to work in a business we liked.

通过拥有超过80%股份(在这个案例中我们称之为100%拥有)的业务来赚钱,与通过买卖股票来赚钱相比,存在某些税收优势。

原文 And there are certain tax advantages that come in terms of making money in something thats more than 80 percent owned - we’ll call it a hundred percent owned in this case - versus making it through stocks.

所以,通过完全拥有一家铁路公司(而非持有其他铁路公司的股票)来赚取相同数量的钱,对我们有净收益。

原文 So it has a net benefit to us from making the same amount of money owning one of the other railroads by owning all of the railroads.

而且我们在经济衰退期间拿回了350亿美元。我认为2009年第三季度是铁路行业很长一段时间以来表现最差的季度。

原文 And we got 35 billion out during a recessionary period. I think that was the worst quarter, the third quarter of 2009, maybe that the rails had had for a long time.

所以结果还不错。实际上,结果非常好,但那是因为我们在2008年和2009年投入了资本。

原文 So its worked out. Actually, its worked out very well, but its because we were putting out capital in 2008 and 09.

如果我们把钱投在任何东西上,我们都会赚很多钱。但从100%拥有的业务中获利,在税收方面更令人满意,实际上在某些方面也更好。并非所有情况都如此,但一旦你——你知道,相对于持有5%或10%股份的业务。

原文 And if we put money in anything, wed have made a lot of money. But its more satisfying, and is actually better in certain ways tax-wise, to make it from something thats a hundred percent owned. Not all, but once youve - you know, 5 percent or 10 percent owned businesses.

你知道,正如我在年度报告中所提到的,铁路对国家来说绝对至关重要。这并不意味着它们处于一切事物的前沿。它们对国家来说是必不可少的。

原文 Were - you know, as I mentioned in the annual report, railroads are absolutely essential to the country. That doesnt mean theyre on the cutting edge of everything. Theyre just essential to the country.

这就是为什么政府——你知道,我想他们曾经接管过铁路一次。

原文 And, you know, thats why the government - you know, I think they took them over one time.

他们协商了我们的劳工解决方案等等。

原文 And they negotiated what our labor settlements will be and everything.

如果你关闭这个国家的铁路系统,其影响将是不可想象的。

原文 And if you shut down the railroads in the country, it would be incredible, the effects.

但——现在再建是不可能的。我的意思是,看看加州试图修建一条铁路线时发生了什么。

原文 But - and it would be impossible to construct now. I mean look at whats happening in California when theyre trying to build a line.

我的意思是,每个人都担心每英里的环境影响,以及各种鸟类会怎么样。

原文 I mean, you know, everybodys worried about the environmental effect of every mile, you know, and whatll happen to the various species of birds.

你能想象在美国修建铁路系统吗?(笑)

原文 Can you imagine the rail system in the United States being built? (Laughs)

那将需要几十年,除非发生战争,政府接管一切并直接命令建造。你无法创造它。

原文 It would take decades, unless a war was on and the government took over things and just ordered them. You cant create it.

所以我们喜欢拥有这样的生意。一百年后它还会存在。

原文 So we love owning a business like that. Its going to be around a hundred years from now.

在那段时间里,它根本不会是世界上增长最快的业务,但它是必不可少的。

原文 Wont be the best growth business in the world at all during that period, but it will be essential.

它的盈利与其重置价值相比微不足道。但就我们支付的价格而言,我们会做得很好。并且我们将以非常节税的方式向伯克希尔分配相对于我们支付价格的相当可观的资金。

原文 And what it earns in its - relation to its replacement value is a pittance. But well do fine in terms of what we paid for it. And well distribute substantial amounts in relation to what we paid to Berkshire in a very tax-efficient way.

所以这——好吧,问题是与其他铁路公司相比,问题出在哪里。

原文 And so its - well, the question is, what are the issues relative to the other railroads.

你知道,如果我们当初买下了联合太平洋,而吉姆·杨能一直活着为我们管理它,那也绝对不是什么世界末日。那也会很棒。

原文 You know, it wouldnt have been the end of the world if - at all - if we bought the Union Pacific and Jim Young had stayed alive to run it for us. That would have been great, too.

但我们有机会买下北伯林顿铁路公司,这对他们和我们都有好处。我们认为它对国家来说是一项非常重要的资产。

原文 But we had the opportunity to buy BNSF, and its been good for them, and its been good for us. And we think it‘s been - its a very important asset to the country.

你知道,我只希望我们能在其他行业找到类似的东西——像这样有意义的投资机会,让我们能够在有利时机投入大量资金。(笑)

原文 And, you know, I just hope we can find something in other industries that - where it makes as much sense as that, where we can put a whole bunch of money to work at an advantageous time. (Laughs)

8. 你可以找到深度低估的证券,但你必须热爱这个游戏,而不是金钱

沃伦·巴菲特:那么,我们继续——第三站。对吗?

原文 ### 8. You can find deeply undervalued securities, but you have to love the game, not the money

WARREN BUFFETT: So lets go on to - station three. Is that correct or not?

格雷格·阿贝尔:是。是的。是的。

原文 GREG ABEL: Yeah. Yep. Yep.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: OK.

观众成员:巴菲特先生、阿贝尔先生,下午好。

原文 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Abel.

我叫(听不清)Woo,新西兰居民,原籍泰国。

原文 My name is (unintelligible) Woo, a resident of New Zealand but originally from Thailand.

这是我第一次来美国,也是第一次参加股东大会。旅程相当艰难,但一切都值得,因为我现在可以亲自感谢您,巴菲特先生,以及已故的查理·芒格先生(如果他还在世的话),感谢你们组织了如此精彩的活动。最重要的是,感谢你们这些年来作为如此卓越的榜样,与我们分享智慧。所以,谢谢你们。

原文 This is my first time in America and the first time attending the meeting. The journey was quite rough, but it was all worth it though, because I can now personally thank you, Mr. Buffett, and the late Charlie Munger, were he still with us, for organizing such a wonderful event. And, most importantly for being such an exceptional role models and sharing your wisdom with us all these years. So, thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,感谢你的到来。(掌声)

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, thank you for coming. (Applause)

观众提问:巴菲特先生,我的问题是这个。

原文 AUDIENCE QUESTION: So heres my question for you, Mr. Buffett.

你在2018年底提到过,你保证如果你不得不在不到一百万美元的资金下重新开始,你可以获得50%的年回报率(巴菲特笑)。

原文 Towards the end of 2018 you mentioned that you guarantee you could make a 50 percent annual return (Buffett laughs) if you had to start again with under one million dollars.

问题是,如果明天你醒来时,身体变成了——

原文 The question is, if tomorrow you woke up in the body of -

沃伦·巴菲特:你的身体。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Your body.

观众提问:——一个20岁的美国人。

原文 AUDIENCE QUESTION: - a 20-year-old American.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,你的身体。但没关系。(笑声)

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, your body. But thats fine. (Laughter)

观众提问:你现在叫沃伦·埃利科特,并且有一些钱可以全职投资,你会使用什么方法或方法来获得那种回报?会涉及翻阅两万页的穆迪手册或类似出版物吗?

原文 AUDIENCE QUESTION: And your name was now Warren Ellicott, and you had some money to invest on a full-time basis, what method or methods would you use to achieve that return? Would it involve flipping through 20,000 pages of Moodys manual or similar publications?

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

观众提问:或者寻找[雪茄烟蒂]?或者像芒格先生那样寻找价格合理的伟大公司?或者两者结合,并以机会成本作为最终决定使用哪种方法的仲裁者,考虑到你的投资机会现在大大拓宽了?谢谢。

原文 AUDIENCE QUESTION: Or finding [cigar] butts? Or would it be hunting for great companies at a fair price, as Mr. Munger would? Or would it be a combination of both with opportunity costs being as the final arbiter of which method to use, given that your investing opportunity has now broadened significantly? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特:好问题。很高兴你来了。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Good question. Im glad you came.

答案会是,就我的具体情况而言,我会翻阅那两万页。

原文 The answer would be, in my particular case, it would be going through the 20,000 pages.

既然我们谈到了铁路,你知道,我翻阅过《穆迪交通运输手册》几次,那有1500或2000页。嗯,大概是1500页。

原文 And since we were talking about railroads, you know, I went through the Moodys Transportation Manual a couple of times, that was 15 hundred or two thousand pages. Or, well, probably 15 hundred pages.

沃伦·巴菲特:我在20或21岁的时候发现了各种有趣的东西。我想在座的可能没人知道绿湾与西部铁路公司。但当时有数百家铁路公司。我喜欢了解每一家。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: And I found all kinds of interesting things when I was 20 or 21. And I dont imagine theres anybody here that knows about the Green Bay and Western Railroad Company. But there were hundreds and hundreds of railroad companies. And I liked to read about every one of them.

绿湾与西部铁路——在那些日子里,每家公司都有绰号。我的意思是,这就是习惯——北太平洋铁路被称为“Nepper”,而“菲比·雪”是东部一辆开往康奈尔大学的火车。

原文 The Green Bay and Western - in those days everybody had a nickname for railroads. I mean, that was just what - Northern Pacific was the “Nepper,†and, you know, “Phoebe Snow†was one of them in the east that used to go up to Cornell.

绿湾与西部铁路被称为“grab baggage and walk”——G, B and W。

原文 And the Green Bay and Western was known as “grab baggage and walk ” - G, B and W.

他们有一个——他们有一种债券,实际上是普通股,还有一种普通股,实际上是债券。

原文 And they had an - they had a bond that was actually the common stock, and they had a common stock that was actually a bond.

你知道,这可能导致不寻常的事情。但它们不会导致对你有用的、涉及数百万美元的不寻常事情。

原文 And, you know, that could lead to unusual things. But they wouldnt lead to unusual things that would work for you with many millions of dollars.

但如果你收集了一大堆这样的信息——我正是这样做的——实际上,这在我第一次见到查理时给他留下了深刻印象,因为我知道西海岸所有这些小公司的所有细节,他认为我从未听说过它们。

原文 But if you collected a whole bunch of those, which I set out to do - and actually thats what impressed Charlie when I first met him, because I knew all the details of all these little companies on the West coast that he thought I would never have heard of.

但我了解洛杉矶体育俱乐部之类的东西。他以为只有他知道这个。这立刻成了我们之间的连接点。

原文 But I knew about the Los Angeles Athletic Club, or whatever it might be. And he thought he was the only one that knew about that. And that became an instant point of connection.

所以回答你的问题,我不知道现在穆迪手册或类似东西的等价物是什么。

原文 So to answer your question, I dont know what the equivalent of Moodys manuals or anything would be now.

但我会尝试去了解所有小型公司的一切。我会找到一些东西。用一百万美元,你每年可以赚50%。

原文 But I would try and know everything about everything small. And I would find something. And with a million dollars you could earn 50 percent a year.

但你必须热爱这个领域。你不能只是热爱金钱,你真的必须从中发现乐趣。

原文 But you have to be in love with the subject. You cant just be in love with the money, youve really got to just find it.

你知道,本质上就像人们在其他领域寻找东西一样,因为他们只是喜欢寻找。生物学家寻找某样东西,因为他们可能——他们想找到一些东西。这是他们与生俱来的。

原文 You know, essentially like, you know, people find other things in other fields because they just love looking for them. A biologist looks for something because they may - they want to find something. And thats built into that.

我不太了解人脑是如何工作的,我认为也没人能很好地理解人脑的工作原理。

原文 I dont know how the human brain works that much, and I dont think anybody understands too well how the human brain works.

但有些人就是觉得在特定领域扩展知识很令人兴奋。

原文 But theres different people that just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area.

你知道,我认识很棒的桥牌选手。我认识很棒的国际象棋选手。

原文 You know, I know great bridge players. I know great chess players.

实际上,加里·卡斯帕罗夫来到奥马哈,见了B夫人(罗斯·布卢姆金)。

原文 Actually, [Garry] Kasparov came to Omaha and met Mrs. B [Rose Blumkin].

我很幸运遇到了很多人,他们在自己的领域里聪明得令人难以置信,但在其他领域却做一些令人难以置信的蠢事。

原文 Ive had the luck of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably smart in their own arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas.

所以,我所知道的是,人脑是复杂的。但当你能找到你大脑真正擅长的事情,然后从那时起全力以赴,效果最好。

原文 So all I know is the human brain is complicated. But it does - it’s best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just pound the hell out of it from that point.

这就是如果我有一小笔钱,想每年赚50%,但同时我也只是想玩这个游戏时会做的事情。

原文 And thats what I would be doing if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50 percent a year, but I also wanted to just play the game.

如果你真的——如果你对这个游戏不感兴趣,无论是桥牌,还是——你知道,无论是什么——国际象棋——或者在这种情况下寻找被低估的证券,你都做不到。

原文 And you cant do it if you really - if you dont find the game of interest, whether its bridge or whether - you know, whatever it may be - chess - or in this case finding securities that are undervalued.

但在我看来,你走在正确的道路上。

原文 But it sounds to me like youre on the right track.

我的意思是,任何人不远万里来参加这个年度会议,脑子里肯定有一些(笑)除了桥牌或国际象棋之外的东西。

原文 I mean, anybody that will come all the way to this annual meeting, has (laughs) got something in their mind other than bridge or chess.

所以,很高兴你来了,明年再来。(掌声)

原文 So, Im glad you came, and come again next year. (Applause)

9. “你必须警惕人性对他人的影响,以及对你自身的影响”

沃伦·巴菲特:现在我们转到——(掌声)——现在我们转到贝琪。

原文 ### 9. ’You have to be alert to what human nature does to both other people and to you‘

WARREN BUFFETT: And now we move - (applause) - now we move to Becky.

贝琪·奎克:这个问题来自匹兹堡的股东丹尼·波兰。

原文 BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Denny Poland, a shareholder from Pittsburgh.

“在描述委托-代理问题时,芒格先生说过,当管理财产的人也拥有该财产时,资本主义往往运行得最好。”

原文 “When describing the principal-agent problem, Mr. Munger said that capitalism often works best when the people managing the property also own the property.”

“近年来,那些在伯克希尔没有显著个人持股的养老基金和资产管理公司的代理人,提出了一些不符合股东经济利益的提案。”

原文 “In recent years, agents of pension funds and asset management firms who do not have significant personal ownership stakes in Berkshire have forwarded proposals that were not in the economic interest of shareholders.”

“在您无法再凭借重要投票权反对他们之后的几十年里,可以采取什么措施来限制这些代理人的负面影响?”

原文 “What can be done to limit the negative influence of these agents in the decades after youre no longer able to cast significant votes against them?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这是一个非常敏锐的问题。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, thats a very perceptive question.

这个问题已经以一种临时的方式得到了回答。但谁知道这些——情况未来会如何发展?

原文 And its been answered in a temporary manner. But who knows what these - how the situation will develop in the future.

我所知道的是,你在伯克希尔·哈撒韦拥有一手好牌。

原文 All I know is that you have a wonderful hand at Berkshire Hathaway.

但你必须——你必须能够思考出你的道路——我的意思是,显然——你必须思考出应对政治现实的道路。你必须思考导致问题的原因——A,你想要成为——你希望被视为国家的一项资产,因为如果你是一项资产,你会找到更多解决方案。这是你对国家应尽的责任。

原文 But you have to - you have to be able to think your way - I mean, obviously - you have to think your way through political realities. You have to think your way for what - who caused - A, you want to be on - you want to be regarded as an asset to the country, because youll find more solutions if you are an asset. You owe it to the country anyway.

但除此之外,与被视为邪恶或更糟(尤其是当你名副其实时)相比,你会找到更多解决方案。

原文 But beyond that, youll find more solutions than if youre regarded as evil or something, and worse yet if you deserve it.

所以这是我们一直放在心上的一件事。董事们也需要放在心上。

原文 So its something thats constantly on our mind. And it needs to be in the mind of the directors.

他们需要自己思考这个问题,而不是屈服于传统智慧。从某种意义上说,你不想成为生活中的愤世嫉俗者。

原文 And they need to think for themselves on this rather than bow to conventional wisdom. Which - you know - in a sense, you dont want to become the cynic about life.

但几乎每个接近你的人,如果你拥有大量的资源,都会有兴趣想办法利用你的资源来为自己谋利。(笑)

原文 But almost everybody that approaches you, if you have tons of resources, has got some interest in figuring out how to use your resources to their advantage. (Laughs)

无论他们是在政界,还是在投资银行业,还是在向你推销——嗯,无论他们卖什么,都是如此。

原文 And thats true whether theyre in politics or whether theyre in investment banking or whether theyre selling you - well, whatever it may be that theyre selling.

我不想伤害任何人。但是,你知道,人寿保险代理人能看到购买人寿保险的好处。而根据管理资产收费的投资经理,则对向你推销他们的服务感兴趣。

原文 I dont want to do any injury to anybody. But, you know, life insurance agents see the advantage of buying life insurance. And investment managers, who get paid based on assets managed, get interested in selling you their services.

想象一下,如果这个房间里的每个人都听从某个人的投资建议,这个人说,每年给我1%的费用,我就告诉你如何投资,在1950年——当我们1965年开始时,他们就会说,嗯,买伯克希尔·哈撒韦。

原文 Imagine if everybody in this room were following the investment advice of somebody that said, you know, for 1 percent a year, Ill tell you how to invest your money, and in 1950 - when we started in 1965, they wouldve - they would’ve said, well, buy Berkshire Hathaway.

如果他们现在还活着,并且仍然按照1%的比例收取费用,那么他们每年将从那些从未从我们这里获得任何分红的人那里收取80亿美元。(笑)

原文 And if they were around now and they still had their 1 percent deal, theyd be collecting 8 billion dollars a year from people who arent getting any dividends from us. (Laughs)

所以,是的,关于与你签订的合同类型,他们的利益点与你不同。最好的做法就是一次性支付他们佣金,然后自己持有股票。

原文 So yeah, they would have a different interest in the kind of contract they worked out with you than you would have. And the best thing to do is just pay them a commission one time and own the stock.

但你必须警惕人性对他人的影响,以及对你自身的影响。

原文 But you have to be alert to how - what human nature does to both other people and to you.

然后,如果你——如果你对此思考得很透彻,并且你真正听取了查理告诉你的话,你就会比大多数人领先很多。

原文 And then you, you know, if you think it - if you think it too well, and you actually listen to what Charlie has told you, youll have a big head start on most people.

查理——有一件事我应该提一下,真的非常有趣。

原文 Charlie - theres one thing that I should mention that really is terribly interesting about Charlie.

查理知道心理学、人类行为和激励措施等的重要性。他很早就明白了这一点。

原文 Charlie knew the importance of psychology and human behavior and incentives and all of that. He figured that out very early.

当然,他做了一些演讲,甚至讲了大约25种左右的方式——具体数字我不记得了——但讨论了一个人可以通过理解人类行为方式来利用另一个人的不同方法。

原文 And, of course, he gave some talks, even on 25 or so ways - whatever it happened to be, I dont remember the exact number - but the different ways that one person could take advantage of another by understanding how humans behave.

然后,在出色地解释了这一点之后,他相信要理解别人会做什么。但他认为实际使用这些方法来操纵别人是有失身份的。

原文 And then, after doing a magnificent job of explaining it, he believed in understanding what others would do. But he thought it was beneath him to actually use those methods to manipulate people.

这是一个非常有趣的人,他思考了人类行为的心理学,并弄清了如何成为一名伟大的保险推销员、华尔街经理、积累管理资产等等。

原文 Thats a really interesting human being that thinks through the psychology of human behavior and figures out, you know, how you become a great insurance salesman or manager on Wall Street or accumulative assets under management, or whatever it may be.

你在一定程度上通过理解他人的弱点变得非常富有,然后决定,当这些弱点出现时,认识到它们对你非常重要。比实际利用它们的人更了解它们非常重要,但你不必屈尊自己去使用它们。

原文 And you get very rich by understanding the weaknesses of others, to some extent, and then decide that its very important for you to recognize these when they occur. Its very important for you to know them better than the person that actually is using them, but not - but you dont have to stoop to using them yourself.

查理告诉我——你知道,在他弄清楚这一点之后的一生中,有几次他使用了这些方法。他并不为此感到自豪,但他也从未对我撒谎。

原文 And Charlie told me that - that, you know, in his lifetime, after he figured this out, there were a couple of times when he used them. He wasnt proud of it, but he also never lied to me.

所以他向我解释说,有几次他使用了其中一些技巧。

原文 So he explained to me that, you know, there were a couple times when he used some of these techniques.

但他——他并不打算再使用它们了。但他也想让我知道,如果我曾经做过类似的事情,我的行为并不算太糟糕,他允许人类可能会有行为失当的时候。

原文 But he - it wasn't - he didnt plan on using them anymore. But that he also wanted me to know that if I ever did something like that, I wasnt really behaving terribly, that he allowed for the fact that humans may misbehave.

所以我确信,在结婚之后,由于我对跳舞之类不同活动的热情,我的行为可能比婚前要好一些。

原文 So Im sure that I behaved somewhat better before my marriage than I did afterwards in my enthusiasm for different activities, like dancing or something.

他说,那是——你知道,我们都会这么做。但不要再犯了。(笑声)

原文 And he said, thats, you know, we all do it. But dont do it again. (Laughter)

所以这是获取人类智慧的一部分。

原文 And so thats part of acquiring human wisdom.

说到人类智慧,我们这里有查理的一本书。《穷查理宝典》。这本书值得读三四遍。

原文 And speaking of human wisdom, weve just got that one book out there by Charlie. I mean Poor Charlies Almanack. And thats worth reading three or four times.

我想我读了本·格雷厄姆的书大概五六遍。每次我读它,我都意识到我只需要在某些事情上想得更深入一点。

原文 I think I read Ben Grahams book about five or six times. And each time I read it, I realized that I just needed to think a little more deeply about certain things.

它们并不复杂。

原文 They werent complicated or anything.

但是,你知道,如果你有一些很好的指引,比如你从查理那里得到的,那么读几遍比仅仅计划读完图书馆里的每一本书要好。

原文 But, you know, its better to - if youve got some great instruction, like you get with Charlie, its better to read it several times than to just figure youll just read every book once thats in the library.

10. 巴菲特离家出走时,他父母的反应

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,我们进入第四部分。

原文 ### 10. How Buffett’s parents reacted when he ran away from home

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, lets go to section four.

观众成员:杰夫·罗布莱尔,来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨。我想到了本·格雷厄姆博士、芒格先生、您的父亲。

原文 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Jeff Roblyer from Tulsa, Oklahoma. And Im thinking of Dr. [Benjamin] Graham, Mr. Munger, your father.

我的问题是给我们在座所有人的,但可能尤其适合在座的年轻朋友——在人生中选择正确导师的重要性,明智地选择朋友,也许你可以给我们讲讲这些人每个人的故事。谢谢您,先生。

原文 And my question is for all of us, but its probably especially for the younger people in the room - the importance of picking the right heroes in life, choosing friends wisely, and maybe tell us a story if you could about each of those folks. Thank you, sir.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,毫无疑问,你说得百分之百正确,拥有正确的导师非常重要。

原文 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, theres no question, youre a hundred percent right, in terms of having the right heroes.

你知道,如果你能找到他们,你很幸运。

原文 And, you know, youre lucky if you get them.

我的意思是,查理有——查理有他的导师。我有我的。

原文 I mean, Charlie had - Charlie had them. I had them.

有趣的是——我的妹妹今天也在这里——我的小妹妹——我们俩是幸存者——我们都有过同一位英雄,尽管随着年龄增长,我们发现自己并不同意他的很多想法。但我们认同他的价值观和动机。

原文 And the interesting thing - my sister is here today - my younger sister that - were the two survivors - and we both experienced having the same hero, even though as we grew older, we saw that we didnt agree with plenty of his ideas. But we did agree with his values and motivation.

这比有人给你读一本带有许多规则、相当不错的教义问答书要好得多。

原文 And thats a better lesson than having somebody thats reading to you from a catechism that has got a lot of rules in it, which are pretty good rules.

但总有一个人在你打破某些规则时仍然会继续爱你,他占据着一个特殊的位置。

原文 But theres a special - a special place for somebody that is going to continue loving you even if you break some of the rules.

这就是查理生命中拥有的,也是伯蒂和我生命中拥有的。

原文 And thats what Charlie had in his life. It was what Bertie and I had in our lives.

所以,我——我就重复你说的话。我不需要给你一堆——嗯,当我离家出走时——我给你举个我自己的具体例子。

原文 So, I would - I would just repeat what you said. I dont need to give you a bunch of - well, when I ran away from home - Ill give you a specific example with me.

当我离家出走,我们搭便车去了宾夕法尼亚州的赫希,被州警察抓到,等等。我说服了另外两个家伙一起去,我们疯狂地向州警察撒谎,说我们有父母的许可。

原文 When I ran away from home and went and we hitchhiked up to Hershey, Pennsylvania and got picked up by the state police and everything. And I talked these other two guys into it and we lied like crazy to the state police, you know, and saying we had our parents permission.

我们住的地方有个小孩向警察告密说我们离家出走了。

原文 Some kid at the place where we stayed had tipped them off that wed run away from home.

就像我说的,当州警察抓住我们时,我们决定了两件事,你知道——我们决定告诉他们一堆谎言,说我们有父母的许可。

原文 And we started, like I said, when the state police picked us up, we decided that two things, you know, - - we decided to tell them a bunch of lies about the fact we had our parents permission.

我们决定最好离开赫希,因为这些警察迟早会发现的。

原文 And we decided we better get out of Hershey, because these cops were going to find out sooner or later.

所以,总之,几天后我们回到了华盛顿。

原文 And so anyway, we end up back in Washington after a couple of days.

当我走进家门时——嗯,其中一个小男孩的母亲——另一个孩子是国会议员罗杰·贝尔的儿子——他的母亲因为这件事病倒了,住进了医院。

原文 And when I walked in the door - well, one of the boys mother - and this other kid was a congressman, Roger Bell - and his mother was in the hospital over this whole thing.

他把自己的现金和储蓄债券都拿了出来,所以她很担心。而法官贝尔,她的丈夫,也非常担心。

原文 Hed taken out his cash and his savings bonds, and so she was sick. And Judge Bell, her husband, was all concerned and everything.

我走进华盛顿的家门,我母亲说:“你怎么这么快就回来了?”

原文 And I walked in the door in Washington and my mother said, “How come you came back so soon?”

我父亲说——(笑)——他说:“我知道你能做得更好。”(笑声)

原文 And my father said - (laughs) - he said, “I know you can do better.” (Laughter)

我对我父亲比对我母亲更在意。

原文 And I just paid more attention to my father than my mother.

所以你要有正确的导师。你不必——导师不是基于他们取得了什么成就。而是——你知道,是——

原文 So you want to have the right heroes. And you dont have to have them - its not the heroes based on what theyve accomplished. It’s - you know - it‘s -

是你想成为的那种人。如果你模仿正确的人,你就有了一个很好的开端。

原文 Its the people that you want to be yourself. And if you copy the right people, youre off to a great start.

我指的不是赚钱方面的良好开端,而是指过好人生方面的良好开端。

原文 And I dont mean a great start about making money, I mean a great start about living your life.

所以,你可以和我妹妹伯蒂核实一下,她就在这里,看看我是否把这个故事讲对了。

原文 So, you can check with my sister, Bertie, who is here and see if Ive told the story correctly.

顺便说一句,她也离家出走过。但她没有我走得那么远。不过——

原文 She ran away from home, too, incidentally. But she didnt get as far as I got. But -

她是离家出走去我爷爷家,大约两英里远。(笑)

原文 She was running away to go to my grandfathers house, which was about two miles away. (Laughs)

但我不想贬低她离家出走的能力,因为她在其他很多方面都比我出色得多。

原文 But I dont want to denigrate her runaway abilities, because she is much more accomplished than I am in all kinds of other things.

但说到离家出走,我绝对胜过她。(笑)

原文 But when it comes to running away, I definitely outclassed her. (Laughs)

11. 巴菲特谈 Pilot 交易纠纷:“结局好就一切都好”

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,我们继续,贝琪。

原文 ### 11. Buffett on Pilot deal dispute: ’All‘s well that ends'

WARREN BUFFETT: OK, lets go to Becky.

题目:2024年股东大会

第5部分,共5部分

但人性就是人性。我们都有弱点、怪癖以及其他一切。不要因为自己有这些而对自己过于苛责。

但也不要完全原谅自己。(笑声)

你可以改变未来。你无法改变过去,但你可以改变未来。

15. 预测人工智能将如何影响伯克希尔和世界还为时过早

沃伦·巴菲特:好的,六号站。

股东:下午好。我叫卡罗琳,是圣地亚哥的一名律师——

沃伦·巴菲特:我已经有麻烦了!(笑声)

股东:——但请不要因为这个对我有看法。

请记住,芒格先生也曾是一名律师。

沃伦·巴菲特:没错。

股东:首先,我衷心感谢巴菲特先生,感谢您的商业诚信、不懈的领导以及对慈善事业的慷慨贡献。

我想问两位尊敬的专家的是,既然人工智能这个精灵已经出了瓶子,正如有人今天早些时候敏锐地指出的那样,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的哪些业务可能最容易受到人工智能的威胁?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这是个很好的问题。

问题在于我对人工智能几乎一无所知。

但是——(笑声)——显然,任何劳动密集型的领域——它都能创造出大量的闲暇时间。至于世界会如何处理这些闲暇时间,则是另一个问题。

至于更多的闲暇时间——我知道很多人在刚开始工作时,他们想要的就是闲暇时间。而我喜欢的是实际解决更多的问题。

但人工智能意义深远。我的意思是,这就是它成为精灵的原因。你知道,就是可能发生的事情。

我可以讲几个关于精灵的笑话,但我最好还是不要了。(笑声)

格雷格·阿贝尔:我想,沃伦,我们可能不——

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道——你知道吗——在我们的业务方面,他们会想出办法的。我的意思是,我们有聪明的人,而且它——

显然,如果它被以有益社会的方式使用,它对社会会有极大的好处。但我不知道如何确保这种情况发生,就像我不知道如何确保二战中使用两颗原子弹时,你知道你没有创造出日后可能毁灭世界的东西一样。

格雷格·阿贝尔:是的。是的,我认为当我们考虑许多业务部门的AI时,我的意思是,我们确实是在思考,沃伦,它如何让我们更高效、更有效?

我的意思是,它会导致更多的空闲时间,而且我们可能并没有考虑迭代式的AI,在那里我们研究非常具体的流程,我们的员工可以实施它,要么——

有时,它会取代劳动力,但希望在业务内部还有其他机会给他们。

但我认为,当你考虑我们所有的业务时,我的意思是,我们在很多业务中确实有大量的劳动力,但我认为在我们公司目前的阶段,也许也是AI目前的发展阶段,这实际上是关于我们如何做得更有效、更高效、更安全,如果涉及危险流程的话。所以——我们还在早期阶段。(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯,他的作品读起来很棒,思维令人难以置信,但大约在我出生的时候,他写了一本书,预测了可能发生的事情——我不知道是不是在未来100年或更长时间——他正确地预测到,人均产出将以现在这种令人难以置信的速度增长。

但是,至于推测人们会如何利用这些产出——我的意思是,这个人聪明得令人难以置信。(笑声)

但事情并没有完全按照他预测的方式发展。他关于方程式中将加入什么因素是对的,但他并没有完全弄清楚结果会是什么。

所以——这真的是——嗯,我们在研发原子弹的时候并不知道,很可能很快就会有九个国家拥有它们,其中三个我们非常需要担心的国家也会拥有。但我们当时确实别无选择。

你可能已经写过各种各样的论文和其他东西,但我们无论如何都会去做。我们需要去做。

如果你没读过,去谷歌搜索利奥·西拉德和阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦写给罗斯福总统的信,会非常引人入胜,这封信写于1939年德国或希特勒进入波兰前大约一个月。

信中阐述了——嗯,利奥·西拉德知道将会发生什么,或者对核弹发展可能发生的事情有很好的预感。

他无法联系到罗斯福,但他知道一封由阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦签名的信可以做到。

所以这很可能是有史以来最重要的一封信。你可以读一读——对我来说这非常引人入胜——这封信开启了曼哈顿计划,开启了——你知道,一切随之而来。

我敢打赌罗斯福并没有理解它,但他明白阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦(笑声)寄来了一封信,而且他可能知道爱因斯坦在说什么。他最好——他最好启动曼哈顿计划。

这个世界发生的事情简直令人难以置信。

16. 巴菲特更担心财政赤字而非美国债务规模

沃伦·巴菲特:不管怎样,我们继续,我想下一个是贝基,对吧?

贝基·奎克:是的。来自加利福尼亚州尔湾市的兰迪·杰夫斯提问。

“2024年3月25日的《华尔街日报》报道称,美国国债市场规模大约是2008-2009年危机前的六倍。

“您认为在未来的某个时间点,全球市场是否将无法再吸收所有正在发行的美国国债?”

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我会说——答案当然是,我不知道。

但是——我最好的推测是,美国债务将在很长一段时间内被接受,因为几乎没有替代品——但问题不在于债务的数量——你知道,国家债务在很长一段时间里根本不值一提。然后——

问题不在于数量。而在于通货膨胀是否会以某种方式失控,真正威胁到整个世界经济形势。而美元作为储备货币根本没有替代品。

你会听到很多人就此发表长篇大论,但这确实是答案。

保罗·沃尔克在1980年之前就对此感到担忧。

但是——他当时面临生命威胁,我碰巧在那段时间和他有过一些接触。

他是一个非常非常了不起的人,他实际上决定必须采取行动,否则整个金融体系会以他无法预测的方式崩溃。

他做到了,你知道,有人威胁要杀他,做各种各样的事情。但他是那个危机时刻的合适人选。

但当时威胁体系的并不是正在发行的美国债务的数量。而是通货膨胀和美元的未来价值,你知道,现金是垃圾之类的想法——你知道——这正在酝酿一些可能真正影响世界经济体系未来的事情。

保罗·沃尔克承担起了这个责任。他很有胆量。

如果你没有读过一两本关于他的书——或者他最后写的那本书——你应该看一看。

但是——我不担心数量。我担心的是财政赤字。

你知道,如果——但我通常不是一个焦虑的人。

我的意思是,我会思考这个问题,但我不会坐着——让自己为此烦恼。但我忍不住会去想。这就是——

我们有一个——我们有一个很大的关注点——有趣的是——我认为这或许与此有关——关注点集中在美联储。

而他们,你知道,他们就是喜欢这样,因为事情总是在发生,经济学家总是说美联储会怎么做等等。

但财政赤字才是应该被关注的重点。

而(美联储主席)杰伊·鲍威尔不仅是一位伟大的人,而且是一个非常非常明智的人。

但他不控制财政政策,他偶尔会发出一种伪装的恳求,(笑声)拜托——请关注这个,因为如果我们有问题,问题就会出在这里。是的。(掌声)

正如一位喜剧演员曾经说过的那样——有一位脱口秀喜剧演员在他的演讲后常说:“我忘了得罪谁了?”(笑声)每次开完这些会,我都有这种感觉。

17. ‘善待他人——世界会更美好’

沃伦·巴菲特:但是我们还有时间至少再回答一个问题,也许两个。让我们去七号站。

股东:你好,我叫丹尼斯,来自德国吉夫霍恩。这是我第一次来这里。我和我的朋友一起来的,顺便说一句,他很想邀请您共进晚餐。

您谈到英雄的重要性,我们很高兴——而且很感激——您是我们拥有伟大价值观的英雄,首先感谢您。

我的问题是,很明显,您在人生中取得了巨大的成功。早些时候,您谈到每一项投资都有机会成本。从我的人生经验来看,这不仅仅适用于投资你的钱,也适用于投资你的时间。

沃伦·巴菲特:没错。

股东:您在办公室度过的每一个小时,都是您无法与配偶或孩子共度的一个小时。

以您现在的人生经验,如果您有机会重新开始,您会以不同的方式设定优先级吗?如果是,如何设定以及为什么?还有,邀请您共进晚餐的最佳方式是什么?(笑声)

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,如果我想出怎么做到的话,这肯定不会是我的优先事项之一——(笑声)

但这并非针对你个人,因为——你知道——你最多能算出我还剩下多长时间,而且——

不,我不认为——我的意思是,我可以想出各种各样本应做得不同的事情,但那又怎样?你知道,我是说,我并不完美。

我不相信过多的自我批评,也不相信对自己、对自己的成就或想做的事情不切实际。

你做——你知道,你做了很多事情。谁知道稍微不同的权衡会——你知道,你只是不能——你不能——你不知道那些道路会通向何方。

我觉得——我认为没有必要为过去发生的事情而自责。你知道,事情已经发生了,你还要过完余生。你不知道它会持续多久。

你继续努力去做那些对你来说重要的事情。

如果我是一名医生,或者如果我从事各种不同的职业,我可能会做不同的事情。

但我真的很喜欢为信任我的人管理资金。

我没有出于财务原因去这样做的理由。你知道,我不是在运营对冲基金或收取业绩提成什么的。

但我就是喜欢被信任的感觉。

查理也有同样的感觉。你知道,那是一种很好的人生感觉。而且它一直是一种很好的感觉。

所以我真的不寻求做出太多改变。

而且,你知道,如果我很幸运,我还能再活六七年,也可能明天就结束,但这对每个人都是如此,尽管方程不完全相同。

但我不相信要为你过去所做的任何事情而自责。我也不相信——嗯,我相信要努力找到你擅长什么、你喜欢什么。

然后我认为你可以追求的一件事是——因为任何人都可以做到,而且这很了不起——与金钱无关——但你可以选择善良。你知道,那就是——

你可以选择善良——世界会因此变得更美好。(掌声)

我不确定如果我更富有,世界是否会变得更好。但毫无疑问——我是说,你们都知道善良的人。最终,去追求变得——或者我相信你们很多人本身就是——但请去追求变得更好。

18. ‘如果你在生活中幸运,确保其他很多人也幸运’

沃伦·巴菲特:我想我们可以再问贝基一个问题,然后就结束了。

贝基·奎克:这个问题来自德文·斯普金。

(巴菲特轻笑)

“3月4日,查理的遗嘱已在洛杉矶县提交。第一份附录包含一个不寻常的条款。上面写道:‘总体来看,我漫长的一生是幸运的,家族传统所要求的正直和服务使我的生活变得更好。因此,我遵循一种我希望现在更常见的古老做法,加入了一项道德遗嘱,优先考虑的并非财产,而是责任的传递。’”

“如果您要向伯克希尔股东提出一项道德遗嘱,您会施加哪些责任?为什么?”

沃伦·巴菲特:我可能会说,读一读查理的作品吧。(笑声)

他说得已经很好了。我会——嗯,我会说,如果他们经济上不宽裕,如果你在善待他人,你就在做大多数富人不做的事情(笑声),即使是在他们捐钱的时候。

但这与你是富有还是贫穷无关。

我想说的是,如果你在生活中很幸运,请确保其他很多人也很幸运。(掌声)

19. ‘我不仅希望你们明年能来,而且希望我明年也能来’

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。有——

以防你们想知道我给自己提的建议是什么——在这段时间里一直是这个。

(巴菲特举起一直面向他的牌子,上面写着:“闭嘴!”)

(笑声)

所以我们只回答了三十个,什么,三个问题还是什么。

但是非常感谢你们的到来。

我不仅希望你们明年能来,而且希望我明年也能来。(笑声和掌声)

谢谢。

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